I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
Pickerington (OH) North defensive end Jake Butt, a four-star and the #70 player overall in the 2013 247Sports rankings, visited the Big House on Saturday holding offers from Bowling Green, Buffalo, Duke, Iowa, Kent State, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, Syracuse, Toledo, and UCLA. Today, he added two schools to that list, Indiana and Michigan. Jake was busy fielding congratulatory phone calls and interview requests, but took the time for a quick chat this afternoon:
ACE: First of all, you visited for the Ohio State game, what was that experience like for you?
JAKE: It was crazy, you know, it was unbelievable. I was blessed because I also got to go to the Notre Dame game, and those were two excellent games to be down in the Big House for. It was amazing.
ACE: You just got your Michigan offer. How'd you learn that you were getting the offer, and what does it mean in terms of your recruitment?
JAKE: Actually, it started off earlier today, I got offered by Indiana as well. My coach texted me in class and told me congratulations and that Indiana had offered me, so I was really excited about that. I didn't really expect to get offered. Their recruiting coordinator, Coach Smith, was in practice today—I thought he was just checking me out, to see my size, see me move a little bit in person. Then I actually got a text from a few people saying congratulations on the offer to Michigan, and I hadn't heard news of it yet, so I called my head coach and was like, "Has Michigan offered?" and he said "Yeah." I'm really excited about both the offers, for sure.
ACE: So where do you stand now in terms of what schools have shown the most interest. Have you been able to narrow it down at all or are you still trying to figure things out?
JAKE: It's still too early for me to narrow anything down. I'm getting a lot of great opportunities right now, but it's still much too early for me to narrow anything down.
ACE: The last time I talked to you, [Pickerington North] was 5-1 at that point. How did the season finish out for you, and how do you think you played this year?
JAKE: You know, we could've, should've finished out 10-0, but we actually finished out 8-2, and unfortunately missed the playoffs, which, just, that was a dagger, we should've made it. I can't sugarcoat it for you, we should've made those freakin' playoffs, but we didn't, so we're back at it next year. Individually, I thought it was the best season I've ever had in any of my sports.
ACE: Being at the game on Saturday, were you able to get in touch with any of the other guys being recruited by Michigan?
JAKE: Yeah, I got in touch with a few of the recruits. [Any specifically?] Yeah, my dad played rugby with a guy, his son, Sean Welsh, he's a big, big line recruit, he's a stud, I was talking to him, and I met a few kids from Trotwood too.
ACE: Do you have any idea in terms of a timeline for your recruitment, or is it still too early to say?
JAKE: Still much too early.
That Should Have Been Easier: Although the official stats indicated a turnover margin of –0-, the blocked punt and the meaningless turnover at the end of the game meant that M really was at a disadvantage in TOM of –2. This calculated to be a disadvantage of 5.5 expected points. Add in the reversed call on M's last touchdown and we all had a far more stressful afternoon than it should have been. In a way, though, it validated that Michigan is a very good team this year because very good teams manage to win even when things don't go your way.
Synopsis for Turnovers: M ended the game with a TOM of zero. For the year, M has had 6 games with a positive TOM, 4 games with a negative TOM and 2 games with a zero TOM. Michigan has lost a total of 21 TOs (ranked #62) but has gained 27 TOs (ranked #19) for a turnover margin of +6 or 0.50 per game (ranked #25). Michigan is ranked #7 in fumbles lost but is #119 in interceptions thrown. The 19 fumbles recovered is ranked #3 and is the reason the turnover margin is excellent instead of horrible.
Avery forced a fumble and intercepted a pass (his 2nd). DRob had the one fumble.
BTW, blocked punts are not considered a turnover.
(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)
The Gory Details
Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.
Here are the details for the game.
The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.
The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.
Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.
According to economists, “a burglar burgles because he finds it a more attractive profession than any other. Without an effective deterrent, he will continue to do so and overwhelm the courts with costly investigations, prosecutions and punishments. So, it is too with the “criminal” schools—like OSU-- that repeatedly violate NCAA rules. In the absence of effective deterrents, they continue to find it profitable to cheat. Such cheating will cost the NCAA vast amounts of time, resources and money..
What can be done? The obvious way to reduce burglary is by raising the costs of the burglar's profession or reducing its benefits.”* So, ask yourself: how can NCAA schools protect themselves from those like OSU, who have allegedly stolen players, titles, bowl games, reputation, and the resulting money that comes to the AD?
Currently, the NCAA relies heavily on information from the press, does a cursory investigation often centered on these allegations, and may then ask the school to suggest penalties. It’s like a policeman asking a mugger to suggest what punishment he deserves. But how has that worked in deterring the crimes of schools like OSU? What did OSU do with their opportunity to self-punish when faced with a deluge of national attention to the increasingly incriminating evidence?
The school agreed to give up their lying coach—with one national title—and replace him by another with two. What a painful penalty! Ouch! Did the self imposed penalties or NCAA investigation slow their coaching search?
To be fair, OSU clobbered itself with other penalties too. Like bank robbers who offer to give back the money after being caught red-handed, OSU also proposed to vacate one years’ victories and return the ill-gotten bowl money. Yet, even the bank robbers now seem more honest. In fact, OSU alums in the national media as well as OSU-controlled Columbus newspapers conveniently ignored the vacated season when they misleadingly reported that OSU’s successive BCS bowls and victories over rivals. So, OSU seemed to say: “we’ll pretend to ignore last year’s victories” (while encouraging alums and boosters to continue the misrepresentations).
Likewise, look at what OSU did to deter future coaches from cheating. First, nothing. Then they let their coach—who admitted lying to the NCAA about ineligible players-- to set his own penalty. A two game suspension….no, raise that to five...and let's call the NCAA's bluff. In fact, the OSU president said he had no intention of firing the coach—he was too afraid of getting fired himself by Tressel. Finally, faced with a PR disaster, OSU reported that they had forced Tressel to resign. But that was not exactly true. Tressel, we were told, himself resigned. Then OSU proclaimed that they had cut ties with him. ….but maybe “cut” wasn’t the right word. After seeming to take the fall for the school, he suddenly was transformed from a resigned or fired employee into an esteemed retiree. So, he got full retirement benefits, was honored in a local parade, with his exploits prominently displayed in the OSU AD exhibition of school honors. In fact, Tressel was not even dissociated from the team. He was allowed to give a pre-game pep talk prior to the UM game—as if he were still the coach
Yet, OSU boosters suggested that Tressel would soon be drummed out of the coaching profession by the NCAA in Indianapolis. Somebody else in Indianapolis must have been listening. He made Tressel an analyst there for the Colts. So, in reality, Tressel was getting paid by the pros, while OSU gave him—hush, hush---pension money---proportional to his past salary gains of $27 million. Seriously. Would the horrible prospect of getting a job in the pros, supplemented by plushy retirement benefits prevent future cheaters from engaging in activities that had already made them rich, famous, and revered as a local God? Would they do so knowing that the chance of even getting caught was small---as exemplified in the Clarret whitewash?
So, what can the NCAA member schools do? First, they can take back control of the NCAA, then they can insist on more effective deterrents.
Economists suggest that the only thing one can do to deter crime, is to make penalties much larger. In fact, the penalties should not merely be assessed so that the expected risks exceed the expected benefits of dishonest behavior. The penalties should also consider the damage done to the victims---the schools that OSU deprived of Bowl bids, recruits, equipment sales, publicity, and the future benefits of an enhanced reputation. For instance, when OSU attended the Sugar Bowl by lying about players’ ineligibility, they cheated another team of attending as well as damaged the record and reputation of their bowl opponent, Arkansas. Who knows how much they decreased the future value of players, like Mallet who dropped much further than expected in the pro draft. Who knows how long OSU had continued to damage other schools by stealing recruits and winning games with ineligible players? Who knows how many schools have suffered losses and prestige by playing a team of paid mercenaries? The length and intensity of the NCAA investigation needs to mirror the number and severity of these questions.
Likewise, it’s hardly enough just to offer the vacation of a season of wins or one game’s bowl money or even to give up a couple of future scholarships. The NCAA must prevent future bowl appearances so that other schools go. They need to take away many years of future scholarships so players can go elsewhere. They cannot be satisfied when a school, like OSU, can get rid of an offending coach, then easily attract another despite the “threat” of impending NCAA sanctions.
The presumed impotence of the NCAA threat is a signal that deterrents to cheating have failed miserably. Now, such empty threats only embolden the worst violators. Until the NCAA penalizes offenders in proportion to the damage they cause, the NCAA will not prevent future violations. Rather, they will find themselves inundated with more and more cases….like they are now.
I was thinking about Urban Meyer yesterday, and today has only compounded those thoughts with every random article or thread post.
Urban Meyer. Ohio Head Coach.
No pressure there, right?
Here's a guy whose body couldn't handle the stress of the expectations he created at Florida, the expectations of greatness and regularly performing at champion-caliber football.
Today he'll arrive in Columbus as the most heralded man ever to set foot in that cesspool of a town, praised and worshipped for what every slack-jawed Buckeye native is absolutely certain he'll bring: National titles, and several of them, in as little time as possible.
"Jus' y'all wait 'n' see-- 'Rbin's gon' take US all da way!"
They are all telling us, ever since Saturday-- just wait. Just wait til Urban gets here. He's going to win so many dang football games they'll be saying 'Woody Who?'
Urban will do it. Urban can do anything.
And, interestingly enough, we haven't even learned of their fate from the NCAA. If the governing body of collegiate sports actually grows a set and gives these hooligans what they deserve, the noose will grow tighter as every diehard Buckeye swears that 'it won't matter, Urban will win it all for us anyway."
The demands that will be heaped on Urban Meyer will be as ludicrous as the boasts being proclaimed about him this very minute by every scarlet and gray "football fan." Every ridiculous thing we read about what he'll accomplish or what he'll do to us will add to the weight of what is expected of him.
And if he fails to meet those expectations... well, just ask Jim Bollman what those dedicated wagon jumpers are capable of saying.
Can he meet what is expected of him in Columbus?
Today he is the Scarlet and Gray messiah, and Heaven help him should he not be able to produce what the Senator did under a blanket of corruption and deceit. Heaven help him if he isn't able to walk on water they way an entire fan base is today testifying him as being capable of.
Stressful? Are you kidding me?
I guess, in short, my point is that for a man who feared for his own health enough to walk away from the stress in Gainesville... this is a very curious choice. The pressure on him is already mountains more than anything he'd ever sufffered in Florida.
I think he'll win, plenty. Yes, he may bring them a national championship. But I just can't see the guy there more than four or five years top.
I hear there was some football game played on Saturday or something. I wouldn't know. I was too busy sleeping off the over-indulgence of Thanksgiving leftovers. Anyone know what happened?
Well, whatever happened, it is still my sworn duty to provide you guys with a bunch of stuff other people wrote which you could just as easily look up on your own, but I know you won't, you lazy bums.
Here are the week 13 bowl projections for all our bowl-eligible Big Ten teams, whether they have coaches, don't have coaches, or kinda sorta do but not really but yeah they do hint hint nudge nudge wink wink. (Note: as of this writing, BTN and CFN/Scout have not yet updated their projections. I'll revise when they're up)
Also, this will be the final installment of the 2011 season, since I'm assuming the bowl selection show will be on Sunday night after all the championship games are over.
|Post Week 13||Rittenberg||ESPN-Schlabach||ESPN-Edwards||CBS Sports||CNNSI||BTN||CFN|
|Fiesta||Ok St||Ok St||Ok St||Ok St||Ok State|
|Orange||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech|
|Georgia||S Car||S Car||S Car||S Car||Georgia|
|Insight||Iowa||Penn St||Penn St||Iowa||Iowa||Nebraska||osu|
|Care Care||Penn St||Iowa||Iowa||Penn St||Penn St||osu||Iowa|
|Ohio (NTO)||Toledo||Toledo||Ohio (NTO)||Ohio (NTO)||NIU|
So what's new, pussycat? Not much, honestly. We'll know our bowl fate on Sunday during the selection show, but right now, everyone (except for slowpokes BTN and CFN) have Michigan still projected to go to N'awlins to face Houston in the Sugar Bowl. I can live with that.
In other news, Wisco is a lock amongst the prognosticators to whip up on Sparty and head to the Rose to face Oregon. This means most folks are liking msu for the Outback, with the Cap1 opting for Nebraska (like I said, ignore the last 2 columns for now, which are populated with last week's predictions).
Pretty much everyone is also calling an osu-Florida matchup in the Gator Bowl. The Urban Meyer storyline would just be way too juicy to pass up. I'm guessing they expect Florida fans to make a strong showing with the hopes their team will beat up on their old coach's new team. Sadly, this means an Ohio-Ohio Pizza Pizza Bowl Bowl will likely no longer be in the cards. I know, I'm crushed, too. Rather, you've got either Iowa or NW there, with the other team probably in the TicketCity Bowl.
Penn St and Iowa are currently splitting votes for the Insight and Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowls (seriously - that's the real name).
Finally, you've got the sad Illinois Fighting
Zookers TBD'ers who, on the bright side, may get to go bowling in N'awlins in the Superdome!!! Woo!!! Sugar Bo... Wait, what? The R+L Carrier New Orleans Bowl on Dec 17? Well, they were close in proximity to a BCS bowl, at least....
So everyone seems to think that Michigan is going to face Houston in the Sugar Bowl. Of course, in order for that to happen, Michigan has to finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. The current BCS standings come out at 8:15 pm tonight. This has been an overanalyzed topic on the MGoBoard, but there are some interesting and somewhat overlooked things that could happen next week to affect Michigan's BCS hopes. The consensus round these parts has been that if LSU beats Georgia, we should be in the top 14 and thus selected to the Sugar Bowl. However, even if that happens, there are some other teams that we should be concerned about:
1. Michigan State. If they lose to Wisconsin in a close game, it is not unreasonable to think that they might stay above us. Yes, they have 3 losses to our 2, but they beat us by two touchdowns. They have moved up to 9th (barely) in the Coaches poll and are 11th in the Harris poll. The computers have us (just) ahead of MSU, so if they drop to one spot ahead of us in the polls, the BCS rankings will probably have us ahead of them. For State to stay in the top 14, they'd have to only drop a couple of spots after a loss. A State win in the B1G championship game, while deeply unsatisfying to my fandom, would actually benefit Michigan, as Wisconsin would almost definitely drop below us, and with MSU as one of our opponents, it would help our computer rankings. It would still, however, make me nauseated.
2. Baylor. This is the one that really scares me. The computers LOVE the Big 12. Two of the computer rankings had Baylor 7th overall last week, even with losses to Kansas St. and Texas A&M. My guess is that Baylor and Michigan will almost be exactly tied in this week's rankings, with Michigan having a slight edge. The good news is that they might have dropped a little in the computer rankings, as their win over Texas Tech will not help them as much as South Carolina's win over Clemson, for example. That same game helped Michigan to move in front of Clemson in several computer polls. In any case, Baylor's game next weekend against Texas may decide Michigan's bowl fate.
3. Oklahoma. An Oklahoma win over Ok. St. keeps both in the top 14. I have no doubt that the Sugar Bowl would take us over the Cowboys, but we'd have to make the top 14 for that to matter. An Oklahoma loss should drop them past Michigan in the human polls, but they were 6th in the computer polls last week. A loss to Ok. St. (#2 in the computers last week) is not going to hurt them too much, and they'll probably stay in the top 10 in the computer rankings. That means they'd have to drop to at least about 17th in the human polls to fall past Michigan. I don't know if that will happen.
The overall math is this: We will be 16th in tonight's rankings. We need two teams to drop past us with no teams moving ahead of us. (or three drop and one moves ahead of us.) We need the following to happen:
1. Georgia loss to LSU. A Georgia win eliminates the Sugar Bowl slot. Nobody, not even Mark Richt's mother, thinks this will happen.
2. The B1G loser to drop at least 4 spots in the human polls. That should happen, but hope for a blowout either way (run it up, Bielema).
3a. Texas beats Baylor. A Baylor win probably puts them ahead of Michigan and leaves us at 15th in the BCS, which means we can't be selected over other eligible teams.
3b. Oklahoma loses badly enough to Ok. St. that the human polls drop them to about 18th, allowing Michigan to slide ahead of them in the BCS.
3c. UCLA beats Oregon. The Pac-12 championship game should be irrelevant, as UCLA won't beat Oregon, but if they do, Oregon should drop out of the top 15 in the BCS. That would be great, as it would pretty much lock up a spot in the top 14 for Michigan, and it would give the B1G a winnable Rose Bowl. Go Bruins!
We also should hope that Virginia Tech beats Clemson. A Clemson win is dangerous because it hurts us in the computer polls, and it gives a bowl game the opportunity to take Virginia Tech as an at-large instead of Michigan (unlikely, but possible). I don't think Clemson overtakes Michigan in the human polls with three losses, but it would probably be close.
The BCS standings come out at 8:15. What to watch for: the gap between Michigan and Baylor, and both teams' positions in the computer rankings. I expect Michigan to be at almost exactly 0.400 overall (probably a little above), and Baylor to be just a little below 0.400. If the gap is big enough, it could be hard for Baylor to overcome even with a win over Texas, especially if Baylor gets pushed down by other teams in the computer polls. Last week the computers had them at 0.550; hopefully they have dropped from this spot.
Edit: There has been a lot of consternation in this thread and the others that have popped up tonight about Baylor. Basically, the fear is that a Baylor win over Texas bumps them ahead of Michigan. I should know, since I said it above. Having seen the updated standings, I don't think it will happen. A Baylor win is not going to help them in the human polls. We all know that the voters have a tendency to "ladder" their votes, meaning that teams usually only drop when they lose, or if a team behind them has an impressive win. Beating Texas is not that impressive; a lot of other teams have done it too. So Baylor should stay two spots behind us in the human polls even with a win (assuming TCU beats a 2-9 UNLV team at home). In the computer polls, Baylor can only move up about one spot (ahead of South Carolina) if Houston, Boise, Va. Tech and Oregon win (as they should). The Michigan-Baylor gap is 0.04, which corresponds to exactly one spot on average between the three polls. Since Baylor can't move up in the human polls, and can move up at most a spot and a half in the computers, that gap should only narrow to about half of what it is now. Also, either Georgia or the B1G loser should drop between Michigan and Baylor in the human polls, which should increase the gap. In short, I think the Baylor-Texas game shouldn't matter. We should just need LSU to win, and the voters to drop the B1G loser below us.