you can't have one without the other without this one
Preseason Prediction: Michigan will end the year with a +8 Turnover Margin (TOM) or better (2011 was +7). The prediction for TOM for M for this year is based on the prediction that M will be a very good team again this year and is not based on the actual TOM of last year. (Very good teams will have a TOM of +5 or better.)
What The Heck Is Going On Out There?: The opponents have fumbled the ball 7 times (ranked #24) but Michigan has recovered just 2 for a paltry 29% recovery rate (ranked #92). This is far below the average 50% recovery rate and may appear to be just bad luck. But, a further look reveals that M has just forced 1 fumble (ranked #105) which they did recover. Of the 6 unforced fumbles, 3 occurred on punts in the UMass game (one of which was recovered by M), and three occurred in the backfield (all recovered by the player that fumbled the ball). Forced fumbles tend to occur with more M players around the ball and are more likely to be recovered. M's defense has zero interceptions (ranked #100) and the offense has thrown 5 picks (ranked #107). The result is a TOM of –3 (ranked #88).
Synopsis for Turnovers: Woooo! Taylor Lewan scored a touchdown recovering Denard's fumble in the end zone and Paul Gyarmati recovered a UMass fumbled punt. Other than that, I got pretty much nothin' here. M ended the game with a TOM of – 0 – . Denard threw another one – his interception ratio was 4% in this game and is now 5.2% overall (interception ratios of around 3% are "average" in FBS). (Note, this is just the interceptions thrown by DRob and excludes the one interception thrown by Bellomy.) I definitely expected Denard to improve this year and M to have a positive TOM for this game. Oh, well.
Synopsis for Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Just step away from the chart – nothing to see here. Each team had one TO but the EP gained by UMass was much larger because UMass returned the Denard interception for a TD.
(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)
National Rankings: Since M has a negative TOM overall, a game with a zero TOM improves the national rankings. All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
The Gory Details
Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.
Here are the details for the game.
The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.
The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.
Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.
This one's for you, MGoBlog readers; specifically those of you who slo-mo crowd shots to look for internet celebrity Michigan fans like Lloyd Brady.
The 2011 Notre Dame game brought us Michigan Stadium's first (football) night game, a crazy last minute, game winning touchdown drive and the awesome Facepalm Guy.
This week's wallpaper is a remix of my 2010 Touchdown Jesus Says "No Good" artwork. It seems appropriate for Touchdown Jesus to assume the facepalm pose in light of three straight Notre Dame losses on late fourth quarter Michigan scores.
The images below are previews only. You can get the widescreen, iPad and mobile wallpapers at The Art. The Art. The Art!.
PRE-GAMING WITH... DESMOND?
(Click the image to view full size)
Not much to say about ol' drunk Desmond there. Just want to thank Pat Stansik for his involvement and blessing, and encourage everyone to visit his YouTube and Facebook accounts. Keep up the good work, and thanks again for the Most Epic Song EVER.
OnThursday Tom runs into the typical Notre Dame fan.
THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Tuesday here at MGoBlog,
and at least every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to
check out Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.
Ok, so I will hopefully be putting 2-3 different wallpapers up. A lot of this will depend on how fast I can get my new TV mounted (also my computer monitor). This first one is very simple, but I still like the look of it. I will be working on another one tonight that will be a little more complicated. In the meantime, enjoy the first one of the week! Hope you like it. Go Blue, beat the Irish!
Wallpaper 1 - "Touchdown Jesus"
After watching the UMass game I went through a series of strange feelings:
- Relief. Game never in question, easy opponent dispatched, spread covered.
- Anxiety. The D-Line didn't look that good. Come to think of it, neither did the run-blocking.
- Relief. 2013 isn't far away, and we'll be transitioning from Borges-Denard Fusion to Manball.
- Anxiety. 2013 isn't far away, and we'll be transitioning from Borges-Denard Fusion to Manball.
Yes, the last two are the same. No, it's not a mistake. Here's what happened in my brain:
- I sure will miss Denard next year, but we'll be back to Michigan Manball without him. And our offensive line will be much better at run-blocking.
- Wait, why will it be better at run-blocking? Who will even be playing O-Line for us next year?
- SHUT-UP! SHUT-UP! SHUT-UP! Enjoy the win. Just pretend that Hoke will sprinkle magical Manball dust (wait, that doesn't sound right) and everything will turn out fine.
- No, you shut-up. I have to research this so I can sleep. Or so I can't sleep. AAARRRGGGGH!
Suddenly, I'm lying awake in bed, and going through the depth chart in my head. The one guy that seems to be playing good football on the O-Line is Taylor Lewan, and it's no secret that he's projected to get a 1st round NFL draft grade. We have to assume he's gone. Also gone from the line is...EVERYONE. Except Schofield. He'll stick around for his fifth year. Right? RIGHT?!!! And it's good that he stays...right? RIGHT?!!!
Let's just assume the whole line, except Schofield, is gone. Our new O-Line looks like this:
LT Erik Magnuson; LG Chris Bryant; C Jack Miller; RG Kyle Kalis; RT Michael Schofield
Maybe Joey Burzynski sneaks in there, but we're likely going with four (FOUR!) players with
little or no playing experience. And Schofield.
And I think, if we're geing honest with ourselves, that line doesn't look much better than this year's version. Sure, Bryant and Kalis should be better people-movers than Barnum and Omameh, but they'll be learning the position as they go. And a redshirt freshman left tackle? Ummmm...
Oh, and did I mention that Jack Miller is currently 6-4 and 288 lbs? Not exactly the size we're looking for at center.
My point is that our O-Line will be far from "Manball-Ready" and that we have much to fear about their abilities. Maybe we'll get some better natural push, but we're trading that for what will likely be a drop-off in pass-blocking. Erik Gunderson is currently listed ahead of Ben Braden, so I'm not holding my breath there. Blake Bars isn't currently listed on the depth chart.
On the other side of the ball, things don't look much better. BWC and Roh are gone. Pipkins should be seasoned, and hopefully in shape. Brink, Washington, Black, and Ash are all back, but like, seriously.
Our hopes will be tied to Pee Wee (NT) and Frank Clark (WDE), with Heitzman/Brink/Wormley/Strobel at SDE and Black/Washington/Ash/Brink at DT needing to just not screw it up.
The only logical conclusion is that next year will require the same patience with our lines as this year. This issue will be exacerbated by the lack of Denard...whether it's Bellomy or Gardner running the offense, it will be an offense that is trying to be pro style, and won't have a premier QB to run it. Gardner's growth will be stunted by his time at WR, and Bellomy looks like a solid-but-not-spectacular player. Navarre Light, if you will, with more mobility and a not-as-good arm.
I guess what I'm saying is that we'll really have to wait until 2014 before we have our Manball lines in place, and maybe then we can go back to complaining about the secondary.
After a 63-13 baby seal clubbing, this seems like as good a time as any to explain my lifelong obsession with Michigan football boxscores. When I was a child, my dad had a “connection” within the University of Michigan football program. This connection - for the purposes of this diary we’ll call him “Keith” – would send my dad what I believed to be insider information every year. It started with the pre-season media guide coming sometime in August, and continued with expanded boxscores very similar to what MGoBlue.com now posts. Anyway, back in the 70’s and 80’s the average fan was stuck with the two inches of boxscore info that the newspapers would publish. They consisted of the main stats – first downs, passing yards, rushing yards, and scores, and that was about it. What a boon it was to my 12 year old self to see who the leading tacklers were, who our all-purpose yardage leaders were, and on and on. Of course, I usually had to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get these, but thanks to modern technology, all these stats are now at our fingertips with a few simple key strokes. Keith would also send us the cumulative game stats and many other interesting items.
The best thing about Keith was that he knew where the entrances were to the locker rooms at all the big 10 stadiums. Every now and then, we would meet up with him after a road game and wander over to the locker room. We’d wait a short while, and then the players would start exiting the locker room, one-by-one. A couple things stand out in my memory. One, those players always wore their navy blue sport coats with ties, and two, they would sign autographs. Of course, it was always easier to get an autograph after a win. One time, we lost to Purdue and the players just looked so down. That image to me captures ABC Sports “agony of defeat” much better than the skier wiping out does. At Minnesota, I got Anthony Carter’s autograph. ANTHONY CARTER!!! And finally, after one Wisconsin game I got Bo Schembechler’s autograph. I could’ve died and gone to heaven, man. What a thrill. So after I get Bo’s autograph, Keith says to me, “Steve, you’ve got to get this guy’s autograph.” Well, he looks like an older guy, possibly a coach, so I follow Keith’s advice and ask for his autograph. It’s Ron Kramer. At the time, I was like, “who’s Ron Kramer?” Yeah, youth is wasted on the young. Thanks, Ron, and thanks Keith. On to the link.
Burst of Impetus
- Seriously? You expected something here?
- For the gamblers, there was one huge play. I can’t overstate this enough. Late in the game, Michigan punted to UMass. UMass fumbled and M recovered, giving us a short field. M punched it in and we covered the spread.
Announcers’ Derpity Derp
- I’m moving this up this week only as a way to introduce the next section’s title. During one random play in the game, two M defenders ended up hitting the UMass ballcarrier at the same time, from opposite sides. The B1G Network announcer called this a “Malachi Crunch.” There’s nothing like B1G announcers breaking out a 36 year old reference to describe a play. For those still in college reading this diary, the “Malachi Crunch” refers to a demolition derby move employed by the Malachi brothers against Pinky Tuscadero, as shown in a three-part 1976 episode of Happy Days. Fonzi risked his life to rescue Pinky. Then, he baited the Malachi Brothers into trying the move on him. He moved his car at the last moment, causing the Brothers to Crunch themselves. I think providing you with this bit of worthless trivia is entirely consistent with my avatar.
- Did you know that Mike Cox went to Michigan? I hope no one was playing a drinking game based on that.
- Our defense has found an identity. They are a bunch of crazed Malachi brothers gang-tackling anything that moves. At least I hope so.
- We held UMass to 3.1 ypc. Some would probably hope for less, but I’ll take it.
- 23 players showed up in the defensive stats, including Paul Gyarmati who got a fumble recovery.
- Hawthorne was our leading tackler with 7. He was all over the field on special teams and late in the game. I don’t think he likes getting pushed to the third team.
- Unfortunately, the next three leading tacklers were all DBs.
- Frank Clark had two pass breakups. It seems like we always play teams that have athletic DE that jump up and break up passes. We finally have one of those guys.
- Joe Bolden got a sack for -24 yards, somewhat reminiscent of the Sugar Bowl. You want to keep going backward? OK, just let me know when you want to get sacked.
- 10 carries for 106 yards and 1 – “you’ve got to be kidding me” – type TD run.
- He was 16 for 24 passing for 291 yards and 3 TDs. Those 16 completions went to 9 different receivers.
- Denard had one poor pass/decision, throwing a pick-six, but better he do that against UMass than ND, ‘cause he rarely does that kind of thing, right?
- I have to give credit to the ref who called UMass for back-to-back chop blocks. First, for calling it twice in a row, and second, because the UMass blocker basically whiffed on the blocks. You know you are bad when you can’t even execute a proper chop block.
- UMass committed 10 penalties for 69 yards. I’m not sure if that includes the 24 yard penalty they got for intentional grounding, because the play-by-play link shows a 24 yard sack for Bolden AND the 24 yard penalty. I suppose I could figure this out, but we won the game by 50 points, know what I mean?
Bunches of Funchess
- After two weeks, I’m convinced. Funchess is the real deal. He was the first of eight Michigan players to score a touchdown.
- Gardner and Roundtree also caught TD passes. Roundtree’s was a bullet from Denard.
- Dileo broke a tackle allowing him to scamper for 66 yards on M’s longest passing play.
- In the first, and hopefully last, ever Magnus Bowl, Toussaint outrushed Mike Cox 85 to 76, closer than most people expected.
- Eight M players appear in the rushing stats, including Norfleet’s first carry and a TD for Taylor Lewan.
- Vincent Smith scored two TDs on his three carries.
- Ron Kramer’s #87 got the Legends Patch treatment. I kept trying to find #87 on the field. I finally gave up at halftime and clicked on MGoBlue.com. Congrats to Brandon Moore for receiving the honor.
- It’s a sad day for hexadecimalists everywhere as no one registered in the boxscore. I thought there would be plenty given how many players got in the game. I find it interesting that they show the defensive players numbers, but not the offensive players. Why is that?
Special Teams Stuff
- M’s average punt was 41.3 yards, but the average net yards per punt was 46 yards. That’s what happens when a couple punts doink off the returner’s helmet and go backwards.
- We kicked off 10 times. That’s always good.
I’ll Take Bullets for a Thousand, Alex
- The attendance was 110,708. Never let it be said that M fans don’t appreciate a good baby seal clubbing.
- First downs – M: 27, UMass: 15.
- Time of possession – M 30:57, UMass 29:03. Whew, that was close.
Outside the Boxscore
- I decided to drop the song of the game bit; however, if I had continued it, it would have been "Dream On," by Aerosmith since they are from Massachusetts and anybody thinking UMass had a chance, well, dream on. I have added this section to address TrippWelborneIdentity’s repeated critique. I’ll reserve this section for cigar smoking dudes, my brother, and whatever else happens to cross my mind, like my damn pipes leaking for the third time in 11 yards. Copper ain’t all it’s cracked up to be, folks.