Diaries

In case anybody's wondering, I'm Chris of Dangerous Logic here, but parkinggod pretty much everywhere else on the web, including YouTube.

(apologies to those who are familiar with MPP from last year; this is for the new folks)

  I love Picture Pages, but I'm so obtuse that I usually have to replay the video as I'm reading in order to understand what's happening.  Finally it dawned on me that I have the game footage, a video editor, and a little bit of free time, so (with Brian's permission) I have annotated the play with pauses, spot-shadowing, and other kindergarden video effects to make it easier to follow.  I notice that Brian has also started including an annotated version at the end of his regular picture pages posts (in this case, http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-how-not-defend-power-part-i), but he points out different things there so I think this is still useful.

Setup: It's second and two on the Michigan 47 on Western's second drive of the day.  Western runs a counter out of the shotgun against Michigan's 3-4 front with corners pressing and only Kovacs deep.

Wha'hoppon: The LT ignores Brennen Beyer to double RVB. Beyer crashes into the backfield only to get hit by a pulling guard as the RB runs by him on the counter.  Demens steps up into the hole but loses outside contain, and the RB cuts outside and may well have had a TD if Kovacs doesn't make a tackle 25 yards downfield.

It was a cold winter. Not just because the mercury in my thermometer froze, but because I felt Jack Frost nipping my aorta. The 2010 season ending in disaster sent me into seclusion in an undisclosed location. For what it’s worth, Dick Cheney is a horrible bunk mate and cheats like hell at Risk. I was lost for months being dissatisfied with the Gator Bowl Massacre, the ensuing drama of Rich Rodriguez firing, and HOKE being hired in his stead. My theory was that if you are going to fire a coach, make sure the next guy is better. HOKE to me at the time fell way below this standard. I thought he’d make a good run at the WWE giving the people’s pointer, but not for head ball coach at the University of Michigan. I dropped away from MGoBlog for the winter/spring/and most of the summer. Although I had many items on my plate such as world domination, running up my phone bill on a suicide hotline, and practicing the French Horn in my hang out to piss off Cheney.

After leaving my bunker and pleasantly surprise that the nuclear radiation was fairly low, I began thawing my icy demeanor to prepare for the upcoming season. I began surfing through the posts of MGoBlog for motivation. Even though the quality of the posts was high, I needed something more. I loaded the canoe, grabbed my closest confidant, dipped into my suitcase of goodies and took to Bearwallow Pond. Bearwallow Pond is home to the most fierce man eating chain pickerel known to man. As I came to peace with myself battling the forces of evil and experiencing a full blown visionquest that would make Jack Kerouac blush, I realized that I must buy into MANBAWW FOOTBAWW or never be a Michigan fan once again. I chose the former because not being a Michigan football fan is forfeiting your soul. If I wasn’t a Michigan football fan, I would be destined to hang out in Columbus being a Blue Hornet’s groupie and bestowing myself a wife that I will only meet in the realm of World of Warcraft named Grundela.

September 3^rd, 2011. The long cold offseason is over. I finally get to see the maize and blue streak out onto the feet. Unfortunately, I could not see them due to the heavy haze that settled into Midwest that threatened to pose serious health problems to Gorgeous Borges. It was hotter than a pair of monkey balls in July. The on the field reporter had a gadget that looked similar to a speedometer. She claimed it was to read the temperature on the ground. I then became convinced that it was a speedometer when it read 131. That was definitely Denard just walking by.

The first quarter drive by Western Michigan brought back flashes of beavers, atomic bombs, sad kittens, and death. I witnessed a MAC team slice through the Michigan defense like I had many times before. This time was different though. I did not have razor blades and salt readied for added pain because I held out hope err…HOKE. Thankfully the touchdown by Michigan at the beginning of the second brought me back from the edge.

At the beginning of the second quarter I also noticed that Carder was having difficulties with audibles. I have not attended a game since the finalization of the renovations (soon to change). I was pleasantly surprised that opposing teams may now have to worry about hearing the correct calls before snapping the ball. Lay the largest library bullshit to rest.

Western Michigan again began exacting a slow painful mauling of a defense again in the middle of second quarter. It looked as if the defense once again was helpless as earthworms after a rainstorm before the turning point of the game came in the form of a 94 yard interception return for a TD by Brandon Herron. After I completed a whole rearrangement of my house in a reenactment of the Herron return, much to my roommates chagrin, I had a different feeling in the pit of my large intestine. Something broke in favor of the Wolverines at a time when it was desperately needed. It was a fix that was finally met after a three year withdrawal that put most Wolverine fans in Nirvana.

After the turning point in the game, WMU began to cave. I find myself more empathetic for self destructing behaviors after witnessing a horror show full of them these past three years. This may explain my deep connection to self mutilators, Jersey Shore fans, and ohio citizens.

Gibbons is an animal. Not in the way that separates someone for exceptional accolades, but an animal in that he has instincts for inclement weather. After Michigan’s third TD, Gibbons sensed the Monsoonpocalypse barreling down the I-96 corridor.  He missed an extra point. We should have respected his all powerful warning because the series of storms that followed wreaked havoc on the stairs and fabrics that occupied the Big House.

After one restart and another delay, Brandon showed the WMU athletic director his pimp hand and the game was finished. Although the game was a washout win, many fans in and out of the rainpocalypse felt refreshed. There was a new buzz in the air. A buzz filled with HOKE. The defense became aggressive unlike ever before in the A.C. era. (After Carr). Kovacs proved that his blood lust was not a fluke as he single handily made Carder crawl into a fetal position headless, The kicking game was ok?, no beavers were spotted or harmed in the game, and no one feared a Josh Groban rendition. Rainbows, happiness, and FOOTBAWWW had returned to Michigan, or did it?

I can speak for myself and I am sure many others are in agreement when through all the celebrating in the American traditional way of killing brain cells with multiple substances at a single time, there lingered a itching worry that this may be the same feeling of after the UConn 2010 win. Notre Dame will be the next test. They have plenty of talent but a habit of Plaxico Burressing themselves in the foot. The defense will surely get a test and save any other bat shit crazy act from mother nature, this will be the first full game of the season. Which means the first fourth quarter of the season. If Gibbons starts missing extra points, head for the hills. If Brian Kelly has an aneurism and collapses on his face, stick around.

We shall be one step closer to finding out if we have caught some wind in our sails to the promised land, or if we will continue to wallow in our own poop deck.

-Go Blue

P.S. Due to insane first week of work, pictures and videos have been excluded. Please don’t hold it against me. I'll find you.

Revision: I WILL be including the WMU TO stats in all future posts. I realized that excluding a single game will significantly distort all the data. So, my data will reflect U-M with +3 TOM better than the NCAA data. I am right -- they are wrong!

We Don't Exist!: This will be an abbreviated post since all the stats from the WMU game are not included in the NCAA data. I don't feel like fighting this battle for the entire year or trying to adjust data by some factor every week. All data will be the official NCAA statistics from the NCAA site. Thus, unless the NCAA includes the WMU statistics (which is doubtful), this is the one and only time the data will be included.

Early Season Statistics: In 2009 & 2010 M had a positive TOM thru the first 6 games. At the end of the season? 2009 TOM was MINUS 12. 2010 TOM was MINUS 10. It is unlikely we will know a lot about this team until at least the seventh game at MSU.

Synopsis for Turnovers: The game ended with a TOM of +3. However, the first 2 TOs were very unusual because they both resulted in defensive touchdowns. Arguably, this was a point swing of at least 14 points and as many as 25 points.

With the average TO being "worth" approximately 5 points, a simplistic analysis would conclude TOs were not a major factor in determining the winning team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Without the TOs, I am convinced M would have lost this game.

First Segment:

New scoreboards.  Some issues/complaints.  Just not up to speed with scoreboard capability?  No yardline or yardage.  Replay capability much better than old scoreboard, obviously. 

Offense vs. WMU.  Only 39 plays on offense, was it enough?  Brian worried about Denard accuracy, even before rain came.  Was perfect against UConn last year, big difference to performance against WMU (9/13 where he got bailed out on 3-4 throws).  About all you can take away from the offense.

Running backs.  Vince Smith first guy to take power off-tackle.  Brian likes Fitz a lot; speed where he bounced it outside on run near the end before game got called.  Maybe he can make yards that aren't there.  Shaw fast but inconsistent.  Fitz made "maybe one dodgy read" but otherwise hit the holes he should.  Will be an upgrade at RB just because top two guys are healthy, unlike last year.

Offensive line.  Lewan graded out the best; Schofield OK but allowed the most pressure.  Brian's grading system last year was very friendly to Molk due to reach blocks; wasn't asked to do that against WMU.  Most plusses will go to Lewan and Omameh on the year probably, due to power running.

Shotgun.  Being vanilla by doing the same things that ND has seen before.  Didn't show a whole lot of power plays.  Brian still skeptical of Denard under center compared to threat of running under shotgun.

Receivers.  Grade: Incomplete?  Only one guy caught two balls.  Brian pleased; only drop was the Dileo "drop" on a bad Denard throw during the downpour.  Several big grabs; Roundtree/Koger.

First email about the offense and how Borges will attack the ND defense.  Brian curious about ND QB draw defense/adjustments; Denard showing QB draw, then passing.  How will Borges adjust to their defense of that play?

Comparison of the game weather to Virginia '95, ND '98, UCLA 2001; all very hot.  Then the rain just shifted everything...biggest weather change since Purdue '95. 

Defense.  First drive defense always seems bad throughout the years.  Defense couldn't even get lined up correctly; Avery 1 vs 2.  Crazy amount of rotation in the front seven with different batch of players every couple plays.  Special circumstances due to heat?  Defense vs. no huddle offense; shouldn't be an issue because they've seen it all the time.  Fewer misalignments as game went on.  Halfway through 2nd quarter, Mattison bringing a safety down in the box and blitzing; brought the house 3 times in a row.  Carder chucking it off his back foot just so he wouldn't get hit anymore by Demens.  Blitz packages got to QB "even more than you realize."  Blitz packages vs. ND will probably be more expansive.  Michigan only rushed 3 guys once vs. WMU, compared to all the time last year.  ND will probably pick up blitzes better.

Defense UFR.  Kovacks had a great day, period; more than just the two blitz sacks, but cleaning up other people's messes as well.  Wait-and-see on Roh and Martin.  Reason blitzes got home was because Martin was getting double teamed.

Punt game passable.  Brian misses spread punt.  Reason it's swept through college football; it's more effective.

First call.  The last time the defense was in a QB's head and sped up a QB's internal clock.  Brian thinks first time since Anthony Morelli in 2006.  Blitz packages between Mattison and GERG night-and-day.  Secondary really not that different from last year, but still able to get to the QB and force turnovers.  Mental strain of being a QB and not knowing where the blitz is coming from.

Second call.  Ball control game, possession offense, and how it effects the game vs. ND.  With Denard, sometimes you just have a wide open TDs.  Brian thinks any score is good whether it takes a long time or not; just take what the defense gives you.  ND has undersized NT that's more of a quick guy; maybe power more effective than stretch running.  See how ND adjusts this year to Denard.

Second Segment: 

Craig Ross is in.

First call.  Inside College Football; ND TE guy mentioned that in the last six games the ND defense has only allowed 7 TDs.  How will new offense work against that defense?  Ira: Who are they playing?  Garbage schedule at the end of last year.  Brian doesn't think USF had a pulse once they got up 16-0; once lead got whittled down to 9, went right back and scored.  Going back to Navy game where they made no adjustments and just got destroyed.  ND defense is an open question; no consensus opinion. 3-4 base defense hard to run without space-eating NT.  Ian Williams graduated, new guy undersized as well.  Brian does like their safeties and thinks Te'o is good, but ND benched Calabrese and have new-ish OLBs.  Craig: we're a lot better offense than USF; ND defense is a question mark.

Second call.  Front four not getting penetration and requiring blitz against WMU.  Craig: we got pressure with four guys.  A lot of zone blitzing.  BWC in coverage one time even.  Pressure coming from all over.  True that depending on the blitz is not necessarily good and opens up the possibility of getting exploited, but still way better than last year's defense.  Craig concerned about run defense.  Brian says that many of the bad things that happened Saturday were result of Beyer in DE/SAM spot he's not ready for (he'll get better; only a freshman).  Fitzgerald a big downgrade from Demens.  Worried about WILL; Herron had really poor day outside of the 2 TD plays; late reacting, did not fill holes, lost leverage.  A lot of rotation at WILL likely.

Third call.  Music at the game, PopEvil song while running out to the banner.  Brian doesn't know if that was a screwup or not and if they cut it late.  Brian rage about RAWK MUSIC and the overall stadium experience/tradtition.  Don't want to be like everybody else.  Ira: Michigan football is not the NFL/NHL; doesn't need gimmicks.  Craig: Neil Diamond is wretched.  Bodies hit the floor, etc.

What will happen on the field?  Craig: a lot of questions with both defense.  Michael Floyd is scary.  Brian: Rees out there is good; sophomore and not mobile, lower ceiling than Crist.  Craig: win by FG after listening to Brian.  ND favored is good for us; favorites 3-19 against the spread.  Key matchup: Floyd vs. Woolfolk.  Floyd will get at least one deep pass, we need to break up a few.   

Fourth call.  Not worried about ND; ND needs to be worried about themselves with turnovers and penalties.

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in this important diary, THE KNOWLEDGE shall discuss two items
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1. BiG (Basking in Glory):
when the WMU horses took the opening kickoff and scored on a long touchdown drive, THE KNOWLEDGE started receiving notes that cast aspersions on the THE KNOWLEDGE's post on these very pages saying that Michigan will restrict WMU to less than 17 points
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yes
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Well, THE KNOWLEDGE was obviously right, and the doubters wrong as usual
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THE KNOWLEDGE has been basking in glory again as all of the review came to fruition (Michigan's score actually should be 37 points, as the referees incorrectly stopped the game before the field goal on that last drive)
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2. THE CHALLENGE
this week marks the debut of night game at Michigan Stadium. An even more exciting debut for the readers of this blog is the debut of THE KNOWLEDGE CHALLENGE for this year
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yes
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correctly predict the score of the M-ND game to receive the great honor of Protege of the Week
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THE KNOWLEDGE shall provide pointers to the game as usual to help those currently unaware of the game results
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yes
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Pointers:

•  Michigan wins
•  Notre Dame loses
•  ND's offense is more effective than it was against USF
•  Michigan's offense is better than last week, but ND's defense is better than WMU's
•  Denard scores touchdowns
•  The game is competitive

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yes
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as you might note, these pointers are very generic and somewhat tough to base a score off of
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but, THE KNOWLEDGE wants the first week of THE CHALLENGE to be a tough one
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you can do great analysis, or try to fathom the methods of THE KNOWLEDGE. either way, make the correct prediction to be the POTS
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yes
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Important note: some of the future editions of THE CHALLENGE will be posted as a forum topic instead of as a diary. hence, be vigilant and participate before it disappears from the front page
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Pickerington (OH) Central DE Vidauntae "Taco" Charlton is a member of both the ESPNU 150 Watch List and the Early Top 247 for the class of 2013. The 6'6", 240-pound junior tallied over 40 tackles with 7 tackles for loss, 7 pass breakups, and 2 forced fumbles as a sophomore last year in just his second season playing defensive end. On top of early offers from Cincinnati, Purdue, Syracuse, and UCLA, Charlton has drawn interest from Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and several other schools as his recruitment gains some serious steam.

Taco will be one of several recruits at the Notre Dame game this weekend for an unofficial visit, and he took the time to answer a few questions about his recruitment, Michigan, and, yes, his name.

ACE: I know it's early on in the process, but which schools have been in contact with you so far? Do you have an early list of favorites?

TACO: Well I have offers from Cincinnati, UCLA, Purdue, and Syracuse. I've talked to all the Big Ten schools, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Virginia, N.C. State, and more. [My] early favorites would be the teams that offered me already because they showed me a lot of love.

ACE: What's your interest level in Michigan, and who from the coaching staff has been in contact with you? What will you be looking for when you visit this weekend?

TACO: I like Michigan a lot, it's somewhere close to home and the people there love their football and that is one thing that attracts me. The coach I've talked to is Coach Singletary. This weekend I'm just looking forward to enjoying the good game, seeing how crazy the crowd is, and geting to meet some of the coaches.

ACE: Have you been in contact with other recruits who will be at the Notre Dame game? If so, who?

TACO: Nope, I haven't really talked to anyone that I know that will be at the game recruit-wise but I'll probably meet some of them while I'm there.

ACE: For people who are unfamiliar with you, describe your game. What position do you think you'd fit at best in college, and what are you working on to improve as your recruitment picks up?

TACO: Well to round it up I'm a real big guy that's athletic and can move. I am still learning the position, I've only played it for two years. Most people say I am a great pass rusher but I believe I can stop the run also. In college I will most likely be a DE and I am just working on just dominating and taking over a game with my play.

ACE: I apologize in advance for asking the question that I'm sure you get from everyone, but I think the MGoBlog readers will revolt if I don't: How did you get the name Taco?

TACO: Yeah I get that a lot. It actually came from my grandma. My mom was having me real early so my grandma used to always send cards to the hospital [saying] don't let the baby come down south and sign it Taco. So once I was born my nickname became Taco and it stuck.

Thanks to Taco for taking the time to do this interview; he's definitely a player to keep an eye on for a potential offer, perhaps in the near future, as it looks like he'll be one of the top players in Ohio in the class of '13 -- Duane Long listed him as the #3 rising junior in the state back in April. He's looked at as a raw player (again, he's only played DE for two years) with a ton of athletic upside, he impressed over the summer at Ohio State's junior camp ($, info in header), and he should be a very hot commodity as the recruiting process wears on.