eerily on point
At pre- and mid-season, I read some tea leaves. I suggested two schemata for understanding our performance during the regular season: Star Wars films and Indiana Jones films. Here's how we fared.
1. Star Wars: what was predicted vs. what happened:
Scenario: A disappointing year where we don’t see enough improvement from Denard in terms of interceptions and
/orthe D-lineO-line and /ort hose things are fine butsomeone really important named Denard gets injured. There are, however, some redeeming factors. Like Natalie PortmanJake Ryan and kid Boba FettDevin Gardner.
Record: 8-4. Losses to Alabama and ND, plus
2 out of 3 among MSU/Nebraska/OhioNebraska and Ohio.
Probability: (p = .19) Is this possible? Yes. With a likely downgrade of performance on the
D-lineO-line, we might have some problems with the smashmouthy, max-protect MANBALL + occasional play-action offenses that proliferate in our conferencethe 5 competent defenses we play this year, and went 1-4 against them. Without much depth on the O-line and at other key positionsat quarterback, we are an injury away from experiencing Molk-in-2009 2.0. On the other hand, is this probable? No. It’s not. We are returning so many starters that I have a hard time seeing us lose this many games. Plus, second year of system, etc.Yes.
Analysis: I clearly overestimated the difficulties Mattison would face turning a rag-tag band of washouts, role players, former walkons and underclassmen into an all-conference defense that did its best to win 3 of the 4 games we lost, but couldn't do it alone. I also clearly underestimated the difficulties Al Borges would face turning an all-conference offense returning 7 starters and a senior quarterback (with a chance to break a number of NCAA records) into an all-conference offense. Some of this can be blamed on chance--I mean, does anyone think we lose that Nebraska game if Denard gets up and plays 4 quarters? But OMG that second half against Ohio. I will have nightmares for months about rhythm-breaking, too-obvious Denard run packages and trying to get 3 yards up the middle when the middle = DEATH and the edges = LIFE. Sorry, Al: I like you but that was mean.
Verdict: Attack of the Clones
2. Indiana Jones: what was predicted vs. what happened
Scenario: We end up in a chaotic place where evil ones eat monkey brains and pull the hearts out of still-living captives. We make it out alive.
Record: 8-4. Racist stereotyping aside, this was an okay film. Rephrased, we could say an 8-4 season is “adequate but problematic.” That’s a good way to describe a scenario in which we lose 2 of the 5 losable games (
probablyat Ohio plus one we-should-have-taken-them loss, at Nebraska), but still get to a decentish bowl game. Maybethis year it’s evennot good enough to get to the conference championship, and a clear path to the Rose Bowl (where we’d getNebraska gets to play any one of the several Pac-12 teams that are currently ranked higher than we are). It would also be a disappointing, but not too disappointing, end to the whole spread-option experiment, which is exactly what it is.
Probability: (p = .40). This is what the math and the Mathlete think is going to happen. It’s
probablythe most rational prediction at this point, given our high-ish ceiling in a mediocre conference, but also our occasional, sometimes-inexplicable regression to the mean. If you are a betting man/woman, and like to make your bets cautiously, put your money here.
Analysis: Well, that was basically on the money, aside from a too-optimistic view of what other teams would do. Nebraska beat us to the Big 10 Championship Game.
Verdict: Temple of Doom
An Imaginary Interview that Clarifies Everything
Temple of Doom is a much better film than Attack of the Clones. How can we be both at the same time?
Well, imaginary interviewer, the reason for that is simple: my expectations were higher, and less realistic, pre-season. After the sobering beat-down against Alabama and the excruciating interception/fumble-fest at Notre Dame, 8-4 went from "unlikely but possible" to "among the most likely scenarios" in my mind. So yeah, I didn't have the same rosy outlook, so to speak.
But let's be honest, an 8-win season isn't so terrible, historically speaking.
There's some truth to this. We won 7 in 1994, and 8 in 1995 and 1996 (all years in which our regular season had 11, not 12 games in it). Then we won the national championship in 1997. On the other side of the coin, we would have been extremely happy with an 8-win season under Rich Rodriguez.
What's the big deal, then? Why are we either a really crappy movie or the 2nd-worst out of 4?
Expectations, my friend. Given what we accomplished last year, our returning offensive talent and the weak conference we played in this year, most of us thought we could do better.
So what happened?
Other than Alabama, who were clearly a lot better than us, the other teams who beat us were not better than us. This is what feels so supremely frustrating, to me and to others. In a sense, it comes down to "should have, would have, could have." We "should have" beaten Notre Dame, but shot ourselves in the foot with a plethora of ill-timed and boneheaded turnovers. We committed 6 and lost by 7 points...excruciating. We "would have" beaten Nebraska if Denard hadn't gone down, and possibly if Devin Gardner had been practicing as a QB as well. Of course, it might not have gone down that way (see: Notre Dame), but it sure looked like it was trending that way. Finally, we "could have" beaten Ohio if our second-half playcalling on offense hadn't been so predictable and stubborn. I mean, if a specific package made it 99% obvious to me what play we were going to run, you can rest assured it was 99.9% obvious to Luke Fickell. And why on earth would we come to believe that, out of nowhere, we had a power running game? On the other hand, with all that frustration, it's easy to forget that Ohio outgained us by a good chunk of yardage. But at least, with 1) better 3rd and 4th down play calls; 2) some outside short passing to pull defenders out of the box; 3) less obvious Denard-is-about-to-run plays; and 4) such as having both Denard and Devin in the backfield at the same time; we would have had a chance to win The Game.
How do you feel? Are you okay?
Yes, I'm fine. Sort of.
What about next year?
We'll be replacing 3 out of 5 on the O-line--with the real possibility that we'll be replacing 4 instead. Our recent recruits are talented but will be young and inexperienced, and after this year, my confidence in our offensive coaching has significantly declined. On the other hand, Devin looked sharp in relief of Denard, our defense should be as good or better and our schedule looks, for the most part, easier than it was this year. I don't think we'll be great, but I don't think we'll be terrible either. That will be the last year of the (mostly painful) post-Carr transition started in 2007. Then we'll be a big, angry team of maulers with an aggressive-minded coach in a larger and diluted conference. So long-term good, short-term "meh."
See you after the bowl game :)
I have been a member of the community since January 4, 2009. I did, however, read off and on beginning when I was in Afghanistan in 2007. ( Found the site by searching about who the next coach would be). Needless to say, over time, I have read some great stories, epic meltdowns and comments that did make me legitimately laugh out loud.
The reason why I decided to post this is to shed light on the postives that can come, individually, from other readers to another. I saw an add just a moment ago on here about curing Cystic Fibrosis. That took me back to March 26, 2010.... or you can just read here. http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-reason-4-billion-hate-ohiovery-personal
The helpful attitude and well wishes that were given that day gave me and my G/F(who ended up being my wife) the motivation to not take no for an answer. As several readers noted in the content, we were able to get our feet in the door at the lovely university of Michigan health system. While going through all the workup for the transplant we were engaged and eventually married on the day of the Big Chill or 12-11-10.
Sadly, while trying to get her health better my wife went into the hospital to gain weight on May 24, 2011 and suddenly became even more unhealthy until her eventual passing on July 3, 2011. The moral of all of this is that this blog is more to me than just sports and although I know some readers and contributors may not like the way the blog has turned lately I can still look back on its immense positive contribution to my life.
There was another specific night that that MGoBlog made better. The wife was very hungry(CF patients are tiny, but not for lack of appetite), so we were going to go out to eat. However, we had to wait for oxygen supplies to be delivered to our place before leaving. Long story short, they missed the drop off time by multiple hours. The only saving grace that night was MGoBlog, and more to the point, CRex's stories about the Korean in laws. Those great stories put a smile on her face and were a memory she'd reference from time to time until her passing.
Just remember, that although for the most part you may think you're unheard/seen your positive and educated responses can change someone's day and potentially life for the better. Even though she wasn't able to get the transplant, it was because of this blog that we were given idea, and in turn given a chance.
Thank you MGoCommunity
MODS- As always, if you feel this doesn't need to be on here feel free to delete.
Her and I about 3 months before she passed.
[edited to fix Big Ten # and chart]
Another crazy weekend that really impacted the bowl games, and in particular, Georgia Tech.
Your recap of bowl affiliations by conference:
Big Ten – 8 affiliations
Rose, Heart of Dallas, Outback, Gator, Capital One, Buffalo Wild Wings, Meineke Car Care and Little Ceasars
ACC – 8 affiliations
Orange, Sun, Music City, Chick Fil A, Russell Athletic, Independence, Military and Belk
B12 – 7 affiliations
Fiesta, Cotton, Pinstripe, Buffalo Wild Wings, Alamo, Meineke Car Care and Holiday
Big East – 6 affiliations
BBVA Compass, Liberty*, Pin Stripe, Russell Athletic, Belk and Beef O’Brady’s
Conference USA – 6 affiliations
Heart of Dallas, Liberty*, Armed Forces, Hawaii, New Orleans and Beef O’Brady’s
MAC – 3 affiliations
Go Daddy, Little Caesars and Famous Idaho Potato
Mountain West – 5 affiliations
Armed Forces, Hawaii*, Las Vegas, Poinsettia and New Mexico
PAC 12 – 7 affiliations
Rose, Sun, Kraft Fight Hunger, Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas and New Mexico
SEC – 10 affiliations
Sugar, BBVA Compass, Cotton, Outback, Gator, Capital One, Music City, Liberty*, Chik Fil A and Independence
Sun Belt – 2 affiliations
Go Daddy and New Orleans
WAC – 2 affiliations
Hawaii* and Famous Idaho Potato
At Large Bids – 5
BCS Championship, Fiesta, Sugar and Orange
Other Bids (Independent) – 3
Poinsettia (takes BYU eligible), Kraft Fight Hunger (takes Navy if eligible) and Military (takes Army if eligible)
* Liberty takes either CUSA or SEC team and Hawaii takes Mountain West or WAC team
In total, 35 bowl games meaning 70 slots that have to be filled by eligible teams. Let us see how each conference fairs in terms of eligible teams. This is likely the last entry for this season since I expect that after next weekend we will know all of the eligible teams AND where they will be going. However, one new addition.
Did someone say cha...
It was requested that I add a chart to make it easier to see the eligible teams by conference. Hopefully the following chart will do the job:
Your conference-by-conference breakdown:
Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin
As a conference, the Big Ten really wanted both Purdue and Michigan State to win for greater visibility during the bowl season. And they did just that each becoming bowl eligible with identical 6-6 records. With OSU and Penn State out of the bowl picture, it will mean tougher opponents for the remaining teams with the conference only fielding 7 of the 8 teams it needed to fill its obligations.
Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State and Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech reach a bowl game for the 20thstraight season with its victory of Virginia. Wake Forest, on the other hand, could not beat Vanderbilt and will remain home. Georgia Tech, by virtue of their lose to Georgia, now needs to win the ACC Championship game to guarantee themselves a bowl game. Otherwise, their 6-7 record will leave them hoping there will be an insufficient number of eligible teams requiring the NCAA to use its eligibility rules for such circumstances. The ACC currently has 6 teams eligible out of a required 8, but Georgia Tech’s status is up in the air.
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia
It is still hard to believe we are this late into the season and still talking about West Virginia’s eligibility given how they started the year. Yet, at long last, the Mountaineers will be in a bowl game after defeating Iowa State. High scoring Baylor outlasted Texas Tech to also reach bowl eligibility. The Big 12 will finish with 9 eligible teams while only requiring 7 to fill its obligations.
Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse
On the Cusp:
Pittsburgh (South Florida)
It is remarkable that, even though they are 7-5, Syracuse is actually in the BCS bowl conversation. Though they will not be selected, as the rule is based on where they wind up in the BCS rankings with Rutgers and Louisville, it still demonstrates the turnaround for their season. Pittsburgh defeated Rutgers given them a much easier road to bowl eligibility this week against South Florida. Assuming they win, the Big East will have 5 teams out of a required 6 obligations.
UCF, East Carolina, Rice, SMU and Tulsa
Marshall lost in double overtime to East Carolina to fall out of bowl contention. SMU and Rice, on the other hand, both won their final games and are now eligible for a bowl. Conference USA finishes with 5 eligible teams while requiring 6 for their affiliations.
BYU, Notre Dame and Navy
Notre Dame will be going to the BCS Championship. No other changes for the Independents. They finish with 3 bowl teams while having 3 affiliations.
Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, Ohio, Northern Illinois and Toledo.
As expected, Central Michigan defeated UMass and is now bowl eligible. The MAC finishes with 7 eligible teams while only having 3 bowl affiliations.
Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada
The MWC was already complete with 5 eligible teams to fill its 5 affiliations.
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Washington
The PAC-12 has eight eligible teams for seven affiliations.
Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt
Missouri lost to Texas A&M meaning they will be staying home this bowl season while Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State to reach bowl eligibility. The SEC will have 9 eligible teams coming one short of its 10 obligations.
Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State and
Troy lost their last game meaning the Sun Belt is done with 5 eligible teams. They are affiliated with only 2 bowl games.
Utah State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State
When it comes to bowl eligibility, the WAC is already set with 3 teams. They are affiliated with 2 bowl games.
Of the 70 slots available, 71 teams have already qualified, which includes Pittsburgh who should become eligible this week. The impact of Pittsburgh winning will likely affect one of the WAC or Sun Belt bowl eligible teams.
With these numbers including Georgia Tech, it does appear that they will have to win their game against Florida State in the ACC Championship to maintain their eligibility. Ah the craziness of the ACC!
Last week, I predicted that the following schools would become bowl eligible after the past weekend:
Perfect score, though several other teams also became eligible (SMU, West Virginia, Mississippi). It means that there will be enough school eligible to fill all the bowl games, which organizers of some low-rated games are thankful for.
Yes, that sucked. Guess what?
It's time to get over it and move on. Our 8-4 football team lost to teams with a combined 45-3 record. All of our losses were away from home. We are/were a good, not great, football team, just like most of us thought coming into the year. We still get to watch this team play on New Years Day (Ohio State already made bowl shirts for their game: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/shane-morris-puts-game-perspective). There's a good chance that we'll play in the Capital One Bowl, which brings up some great memories:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSTp0frDDWo&playnext=1&list=PLD038920368D35B6D&feature=results_video (no embed available, it's Jamar Adams vs. TebowTime)
What's all this layin' around shit!?!?
All is not lost. We've got a top 3 Basketball team to cheer for at Crisler (http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/m-basketball-3-usa-today). We've got a very talented hockey team that hopefully figures itself out soon. In football, we've got an extremely talented recruiting class coming in, playmakers all over, a few all B1G players, and we'll see some Michigan players drafted in the NFL.
Yes, losing to those dirty cheaters from Columbus hurts, and it should. Next year we've got them in our house and let's right the ship. We'll return a bunch of starters, plug in talented youngsters all over, and play again. Remember, Hoke still hasn't lost in the Big House. He's got a chance to have 20 wins in his first 2 years as coach. That's not too shabby. We're recruiting like gangbusters and set up to be a national contender for years to come. Until then, enjoy this team. Enjoy the Bowl. Enjoy hockey at Yost. And get ready to have a top Basketball team. As a 25 year old, I'm not really sure how to handle Michigan being good at basketball. I'm looking forward to it though.
A discussion in another diary started to get me thinking about the differential in total yardage in wins versus losses this season, so I thought I might share some of this data, which I hope would be of interest to this community.
Now that all of the yardage data for the regular season is official, of course, a fair analysis is possible. In summary, on average, we did outgain teams by an average of 70.8 yards per game. What is more interesting, at least in my mind, is the swing between the wins and the losses. In the chart below, you will see that there about a 250 yard swing between wins and losses when it comes to yards gained.
Granted, twelve games is not a huge sample, but I believe it does provide a little insight into how we performed throughout the season. In three of the four losses, we were outgained (the exception being ND). In all but one win, we outgained our opponent (the exception here is Northwestern).
One positive to be garnered from this is the relatively small difference in our defensive performance in wins and losses. It is around fifty yards, as a matter of fact, and provides evidence of something that most people here already knew – the defense was definitely keeping us in games.
The performance on offense is more intriguing, with a swing of nearly 200 yards between wins and losses. Again, this would lend some credence to things that have already been said on the board about the offense and consistency, but the intent here is to merely report the findings for the edification of MGoBlog.
|GAME||TOTAL OFFENSE||TOTAL DEFENSE||DIFFERENCE|
|AVG. IN WINS||448.4||293.1||155.3|
|AVG. IN LOSSES||253.8||351.8||-98.0|
|STD. DEV. (W)||85.2||99.1||152.0|
|STD. DEV. (L)||44.1||89.8||95.3|
In the Tuesday Presser, which seems like ages ago already, Al Borges said, "My creative juices are flowing all the time. Depending on the game, I’m considered creative or idiotic, but they’re always flowing. That’s what kind of makes this game fun for coordinators." I'd say about 99.9% of the MGoBoard is going with idiotic. I won't defend Borges here. When Rodriguez was fired, Brandon said that they were going to pay the going rate for top notch coordinators. Mattison has earned his salary, and then some. The same cannot be said for Borges, not yet. Part of getting paid an astronomical amount for being an assistant coach is dealing with the inevitable criticism that comes when the team falls short.
At that same press conference, Borges said, "...the key is to keep the chains moving so you can call more plays." Borges called 47 plays on Saturday.
More Borges: "When people are complaining about, ‘Well, how come this guy’s not touching the ball more? How come this guy’s not touching the ball?’ Well generally it’s because you’re not getting first downs." Michigan had only 13 first downs on Saturday, three were a result of Buckeye penalties.
Borges: "You don’t get the turns. You don’t get the calls out. What Devin’s done a good job of is, when it isn’t there, creating something to get us more calls." Michigan was 4 of 10 on third down. Not great, but not terrible either. There were just so few chances.
Borges: "Get the receivers touching the ball more. Get the tailback touching the ball more." Devin Funchess had zero catches. Drew Dileo had one. Thomas Rawls had 5 carries, Devin Gardner had 7, four of which were sacks. After getting 6 carries for 117 yards in the first half, Denard had 4 carries for 5 yards in the second. Those carries were for 6 yards (over left guard,) -2 yards (over left guard,) a no gain fumble (up the middle,) and a 1 yard gain for his only carry in the fourth quarter (this time, over right guard.) Nothing went outside. They never went back to the play that resulted in a 67 yard TD run.
Borges: "There’s just no way you can call everything perfect. Can’t do it. So what’s going to happen when you don’t?" The MGoBoard is going to eat you alive.
On the 60 Minutes broadcast that featured Michigan Football last Sunday, there was a fascinating story about babies. They put two bowls of cereal in front of a baby and a couple puppets. The baby preferred the puppet that liked the same cereal as the baby. The lesson was that we are hard-wired to like those that are similar to us. I would guess that the majority of the MGoBoard is closer in age to Denard, Devin, Jake Ryan, and Jordan Kovacs. It is easier for us to walk in their shoes, than the old guy sitting in the pressbox. And so, Al Borges becomes the villain. I'm not sure that's fair, but he's the one getting paid.
Burst of Impetus
* In the first half, Ohio scored. Michigan answered. Then, Ohio scored again. Michigan answered. Ohio scored, Michigan answered, Ohio scored. Halftime. Ohio scored, and scored again. Wait, WUT? Yeah, I know, the pattern was broken. Michigan went for it on fourth and three from our own 48 yard line. Had we made it there, perhaps we're talking about an amazing victory over the hated ones. We have generally supported Brady Hoke for going for it on fourth down, so we shouldn't be critical just because we were stopped this time. The play call, though, we can criticize.
* The leading tackler was WLB Desmond Morgan with 11. Last week's leading tackler was also the WLB, James Ross III. I guess they are not kidding when they say there is an expectation for the position.
* Will Campbell had one of the craziest defensive stat lines I've ever seen: 0 solo tackles and 10 assisted tackles.
* Jake Ryan was back making plays all over the field, 9 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles. On Thomas Gordon's sack, Ryan jumped on Gordon's back and tried to sack Gordon and the QB. It's been said of others, but I don't think it applies to anyone better than Jake Ryan, he plays like his hair's on fire.
* We had 7 TFLs for 51 yards, including 4 sacks for 39 yards. The sack yardage masked what was our biggest liability on defense, an inability to stop their run. Hyde ran for 146 yards and Miller was good for 108 on his positive running plays.
* We actually faired better on third down than ohio did, as we held them to 4 of 13. No one is calling for their OC's job, though, because they won the game.
Ermahgerd, Erts (almost) Ervehr
* Denard's day was a microcosm of his career at Michigan. We all remember the 5-0 starts, those runs where he lost a shoe, and the Heisman talk of his Sophomore year. We also remember how that first season stalled. He had an electric run in the first half that gave us a temporary lead, but wasn't able (or allowed?) to finish what he started.
* I think it became clear that Denard wasn't able to throw, which allowed Ohio to bring their DBs up close to the LOS, sealing off the outside. The counter to the outside runs is either throwing - which wasn't an option - or running inside. We found out what happened when we tried to counter with inside runs.
* Devin was 11 of 20 for 171 yards. That was almost good enough to win. However, the two fumbles, four sacks, and one INT made sure that didn't happen. Let's not forget his only other road start was at Minnesota, where Michigan QBs turn into hall-of-famers. All-in-all, it's about what we should have expected from him in his first true road test.
Bunches of Funchess
* It's clear that Devin and Gallon have developed a comfort level. Gallon caught six passes for 67 yards.
* Roy Roundtree caught three for 92 yards, one of which went for 75 yards thanks to a great downfield blocking effort by Dileo.
And Justice for Rawls
* Would Toussaint have made a difference? I don't know, but ohio was playing without John Simon. His backups fared better than ours. We still have depth issues due to the transitions and the Free Press hit job.
Norf and Souf
* Net kickoff and punt return yardage was basically even. Ohio was obviously kicking away from Norfleet, who had one return late for 27 yards.
* At halftime, Urban said, "If that's a late hit, what game are we playing?" Showing that he comes from the same branch of the coaching tree as Narduzzi and Hayes. Mike Jones later demonstrated to Urban what a late hit is.
* Ohio was hit with 9 penalties for 74 yards. I kept waiting for a holding penalty on the guy blocking Roh. It never came. On our last drive, Schofield was hit with a holding penalty that wiped out a 9 yard gain. I don't recall seeing a replay. That put us in an obvious passing situation. Gardner threw incomplete, and then an interception. Ballgame.
* First downs: M 13, O 22
* Net rush yards: M 108, O 207
* Turnovers: M 4, O 2
* Red zone chances: M 1, O 5
* Braxton Miller: 14 of 18 passing
So as much as we'd like to be able to point the finger and blame someone, I think we were fortunate to keep it as close as we did. In the end, it still comes down to "The Team, The Team, The Team," and our team did not execute as well as that other team. I've seen a lot of comments asking why we used all of our good plays against Iowa. Well, buckeyes and hawkeyes have the 'eyes in common, but that's about all they have in common.
Outside the Boxscore
The one thing that bothers me most about this Blog are the posters who claim that there is some sort of moral equivalence, or that we're no better than them. We are better. We do things the right way, and when we falter, we punish those responsible. We do not bring them back and celebrate their lying, cheating ways. We do not hoist them on our shoulders and parade them around for all to see. That display with Tressel and the 2002 team sickened me. Ohio's athletic director should be fired by their worthless excuse for a president for allowing that to happen. Additional scholarships should be taken away, and the post-season ban should be extended, because it's quite clear, those assholes still don't get it. Sour grapes? Maybe, but I'm still PROUD TO BE, A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!