somehow we're only 124th
this week's miniprogram. comments, corrections, etc. are always welcome.
[Ed-S: Bumped to Diary. Plus this man!]
So, Brian quit charting UMass before we even got to the 4th quarter, where one big time recruit Justice Hayes got the first carries of his Michigan career. I don't think enough attention has been paid to those carries, be they with backups in the game or not. A guy's first carries in Michigan Stadium deserve a little review, so I thought I'd try to UFR some of his plays
I don't have a full game video, only highlights, so I don't have all the information, but I can do a simple review. Unfortunately, the highlights only have two plays with him in it. If others have better insight, please share it. I'm very much an amature.
Set: Angle too tight, but it looks like a Shotgun Split, with Bellomy, Gyarmati and Hayes all pretty much on the same line, 3 Wide.
Play: Zone Read? Not sure if this is actual read or not, but while the others appear to be run blocking, Gunderson looks like he went to a pass block, so maybe?
Result: 9 yards
Players: Mateus - Burzynski - Miller - Glasgow - Gunderson
Gyarmati - Bellomy - Hayes
Glasgow pulls at the snap, taking off playside. Gunderson's man takes a wide circle around him, and Gunderson seems momentarily confused about who to block, first looking towards center, then back outside. He eventually gets in the way of the SDE who wasn't going to get to the mesh point in time anyway. Miller(+1) gets into his man and shoves him off the line, while Mateus (+1) and Burzynski(+1) double the other DT and take him well out of the play. Glasgow has pulled quickly (+1), while he, Gyarmati, Hayes AND Bellomy all take off playside.
The WDE crashes, but then squares up to take a block from Glasgow, who angles past him. He then turns to deal with a block from Gyarmati, who is headed behind him. Finally, he looks towards the Bellomy-Hayes mesh, his indecision making it impossible for him to get either. he chooses the wrong guy anyway. (-1, that guy. If you're gonna go with a guy, get there fast. If you're gonna hesitate, at least pick the right guy).
Bellomy sells it on the hand off, and Hayes follows Gyarmati behind the WDE while Bellomy follows Glasgow inside. I love how hard Hayes sells this, and the whole play side of the field follows him out. Beautiful fake. I'll +1 him on it.
Gyarmati gets out on the LB (I think. Can't see it, but he's got a block on someone), Miller loses his man but delayed him juuuust long enough, and Mateus & Bryant have crushed their donkey so hard that 5 yards upfield, Glasgow is still looking for someone to block. Bellomy hits a big time hole (+1). Glasgow finally finds a WLB to block, and the SLB and Safety combine to bring down Bellomy at the one.
- Seems like everybody did their jobs here, though I'd like to see Gunderson be more decisive. Not sure if it was the combo block that delayed the LB's, having to go out around it, or an RPS with them dropping to pass coverage. Curse you, highlight angles!
Set: I-form, 2 TE Set.
Result: 1 Yard, TD
Players: Same as before, with Kwiatkowski and Paskorz in at TE.
Solid blocking all along the line. Kwiatkowski, Burzynski and Glasgow get no push. Burzynski, Glasgow, Mateus/Paskorz and Kwiatkowski get linemen while Miller, Gunderson and Gyarmati get LB's. Miller(+1) and Gunderson(+1) have both gotten fantastic blocks, which is a shame, because Burzynski(-1) and Glasgow(-1) allow their men to roll together and completely fill what should be a massive middle hole while a safety fills the left side hole. This play was going right, so it's not a big deal, but this is goal line. EVERYBODY should go backwards into the endzone.
Gyarmati (+2) gets out on his LB and brings a safety along with him(!) and a sizeable hole opens right that Hayes hits with authority. The safety and guard both get a hand on Hayes, but not till after he's crossed the plane. Touchdown!
Anything to add?
The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is: Notre Dame 37 Michigan 14 with a 93% Probable Win Expectation for ND (yikes!). Notre Dame is ranked #6 in the FEI.
Fremeau Efficiency Index: The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams. (This is why M was ranked relatively high after that loss to Alabama and actually fell 13 places after the blowout of UMass.)
National Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.
FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan ( Football Outsiders FEI ). FEI is predicting a 6-6 season for the Wolverines (FBS Mean Wins = 5.8). Like most predictive tools, the FEI is less reliable at the beginning of the year because there is so little data. Last year after 3 games (WMU, ND, EMU), FEI had M ranked #19 and was predicting a 9 win season.
Points Per Possession: The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense. The charts both indicate significant improvement in each subsequent game. Of course, this may be due in great measure to the fact that the opponent has been weaker in each subsequent game.
Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).
Preseason Prediction: Michigan will end the year with a +8 Turnover Margin (TOM) or better (2011 was +7). The prediction for TOM for M for this year is based on the prediction that M will be a very good team again this year and is not based on the actual TOM of last year. (Very good teams will have a TOM of +5 or better.)
What The Heck Is Going On Out There?: The opponents have fumbled the ball 7 times (ranked #24) but Michigan has recovered just 2 for a paltry 29% recovery rate (ranked #92). This is far below the average 50% recovery rate and may appear to be just bad luck. But, a further look reveals that M has just forced 1 fumble (ranked #105) which they did recover. Of the 6 unforced fumbles, 3 occurred on punts in the UMass game (one of which was recovered by M), and three occurred in the backfield (all recovered by the player that fumbled the ball). Forced fumbles tend to occur with more M players around the ball and are more likely to be recovered. M's defense has zero interceptions (ranked #100) and the offense has thrown 5 picks (ranked #107). The result is a TOM of –3 (ranked #88).
Synopsis for Turnovers: Woooo! Taylor Lewan scored a touchdown recovering Denard's fumble in the end zone and Paul Gyarmati recovered a UMass fumbled punt. Other than that, I got pretty much nothin' here. M ended the game with a TOM of – 0 – . Denard threw another one – his interception ratio was 4% in this game and is now 5.2% overall (interception ratios of around 3% are "average" in FBS). (Note, this is just the interceptions thrown by DRob and excludes the one interception thrown by Bellomy.) I definitely expected Denard to improve this year and M to have a positive TOM for this game. Oh, well.
Synopsis for Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Just step away from the chart – nothing to see here. Each team had one TO but the EP gained by UMass was much larger because UMass returned the Denard interception for a TD.
(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)
National Rankings: Since M has a negative TOM overall, a game with a zero TOM improves the national rankings. All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
The Gory Details
Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.
Here are the details for the game.
The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.
The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.
Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.
This one's for you, MGoBlog readers; specifically those of you who slo-mo crowd shots to look for internet celebrity Michigan fans like Lloyd Brady.
The 2011 Notre Dame game brought us Michigan Stadium's first (football) night game, a crazy last minute, game winning touchdown drive and the awesome Facepalm Guy.
This week's wallpaper is a remix of my 2010 Touchdown Jesus Says "No Good" artwork. It seems appropriate for Touchdown Jesus to assume the facepalm pose in light of three straight Notre Dame losses on late fourth quarter Michigan scores.
The images below are previews only. You can get the widescreen, iPad and mobile wallpapers at The Art. The Art. The Art!.
PRE-GAMING WITH... DESMOND?
(Click the image to view full size)
Not much to say about ol' drunk Desmond there. Just want to thank Pat Stansik for his involvement and blessing, and encourage everyone to visit his YouTube and Facebook accounts. Keep up the good work, and thanks again for the Most Epic Song EVER.
OnThursday Tom runs into the typical Notre Dame fan.
THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Tuesday here at MGoBlog,
and at least every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to
check out Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.