Diaries

Get out the globe and encyclopedia (ok, Google Earth and Wikipedia, since it's 2011), it's time for the Ugly Game of the Week. But first:

Last week

Georgia beat Ole Miss 27-14. When the ESPN summary calls your QB "efficient", that's about the faintest praise you can get for a win. Things we learned: 1. Ole Miss is officially not good. They had 8 first downs, two turnovers, and under 200 yards of total offense. 2. Ole Miss has now lost 10 of their last 11 SEC games. So they're like the SEC's Minnesota, then? 3. Mark Richt may still have a job, Huston Nutt may not. 4. Huston Nutt sounds like the mascot for the Astros or something, like the Philly Fanatic or the Capitol City Goofball. Can I play Baby Elephant Walk when he gets fired? Well, I'm going to.

Elsewhere, San Jose State beat New Mexico State 34-24 proving once and for all that Bad Team versus Bad Team equals entertaining game. SJSU came back from a 24-17 deficit to pull out the win in the 4th quarter.

Last, Ohio State handily defeated CU 37-17. Ohio debuted a new wrinkle in their offense called "Screw It, We're Not Passing" and it was effective. OSU passed for only 110 yards, but it didn't matter. The Buckeyes ran for 220 yards and that was that.

This week

We start off with the "Historically Significant Mascot Bowl", featuring the Virginia Cavaliers(2-2) against the Idaho Vandals(1-3). Virginia has wins against Indiana and W&M, and loses to UNC and Southern Miss. Idaho has beaten NoDak, and loses to the likes of Bowling Green and Fresno State. But that's not even very important. For you non-history buffs out there, the Vandals were an East Germanic tribe that sacked Rome in the 5th century. How they ended up in Idaho, I have no idea (ok, I do, but it's not very interesting. "Sports team named by quip from local sportswriter" does not a catchy byline make). Virginia, on the other hand, chose what could be the least intimidating mascot until someone names their team "The Yorkshire Terriers" or "Fightin' Lichen (We're Likin' the Lichen!". The Cavaliers get their name from people loyal to the crown during the American Revolution. Evidently the Commonwealth of Virginia was particularly partisan toward the King. I mean, it's this:

against this:

I don't know about you, but I'm picking against powdered wigs in this one.

The granddaddy of the week is the World's Furthest Conference Game, with Louisiana Tech (1-3) taking a long layover to play Hawaii (2-2). That's a 4000 mile road trip.That's like Russian hockey league-level road trip. To put that in perspective, here are some things that are not 4000 miles apart: NYC to London. Ann Arbor to Anchorage. Hawaii to Tokyo. Low Earth Orbit. You get the picture. Yay jet lag. Hawaii has beaten CU and lost to UNLV. Louisiana Tech one win against Central Arkansas, and that was overtime. Enjoy the poi, guys. To be fair, they've got to OT twice, and lost three games by a total of nine points.
 

So I usually do not post a wallpaper until the end of the week.  I try to get the time to work on it after the work that feeds the family is done.  Last week I had a few people state that they really wish I had the wallpaper done at the beginning of the week so it could be enjoyed leading up to the game.

Blue Indy quickly agreed to get his work out a little quicker and was bumped in points so he could create content.  Just check a couple diaries (here) below this and you can see his work for this week, and the past weeks.  He has done some great work for all of the non-rivalry games.

I felt a little pressure to produce something and after taking in the Cowboys/Redskins game (my first ever NFL game) I was struggling to get some sleep.  I thought it was a great opportunity to be productive and get something done.

My original idea was to take a good looking gopher and give it a Michigan branding.  I was struggling to get a truly good "burn" look into the fur without it just being poorly done.  The more I thought about it I figured Michigan does not really need to brand Minnesota and then there came a better idea.  It's Minnesota and really deep down in their hearts they want to be a Michigan.  I think every Golden Gopher fan, when no one is looking, really shows their secretive desire to be a wolverine... so much that they have the tattoo to prove it.

The picture is far from perfect but at least it is done earlier in the week.

iPad here

4:3 here

Widescreen here

Expected Point (EP) Calculations Dramatically Enhance Turnover Analysis!: This year I added EP calculations because I thought it would provide a more reasonable measure of the net effect of turnovers. (In previous years I had used an average of 4-5 points per TO based on sites like the Football Outsiders.) The benefit of using EP calculations for turnover analysis has been far greater than I could have ever imagined.

In the WMU game, M returned two TOs for touchdowns and the EP calculations reflected an additional 7.7 point advantage to Michigan (versus using just an average of 4-5 points per TO). This week, the EP calculations actually give Michigan an advantage of 1.91 expected points even though we had a negative one TOM! How could this be? Well, in retrospect, it is fairly obvious. Each turnover may result in a immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.

For example, in the SDSU game, Denard threw an interception on third and 6 from the M28 and SDSU took over on the M39. If the pass had been incomplete, M would have punted on fourth down and SDSU would have gotten the ball at the SDSU 36 (based on a net punt of 36 yards from the M28). Therefore, the total effect of this TO was only 25 yards of field position which is about 1.00 EP. Contrast that to the SDSU fumble after a 30 yard run to the M07 yard line. SDSU would have had a first a goal at the M07 with an EP of 5.32. Michigan did have an EP of –0.72 because of recovering the ball on the M07 (poor field position) but this still is a net of 4.60 EP. The bottom line is that the M turnovers were far less damaging than the SDSU turnovers and this is reflected in the EP calculations.

In general, interceptions will have less impact than fumbles because an interception usually results in a smaller difference of field position. Also, turnovers on third down will have less impact than TOs on first or second down.

Synopsis for Turnovers: For the first time this year, M had a negative turnover margin. The game had a total of 7 turnovers. Michigan lost 4 and gained 3 from SDSU, leaving M with a TOM of -1 for the game and +5 for the year.

Turnovers did not impact which team won the game (TOs did impact which team won the WMU and ND games).

(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)

National Rankings: Remember the table below includes the WMU game and will NOT be the same as the (incorrect) NCAA Rankings. DRob continued his TO problems with 2 interceptions and a total of 6 for the year. Through the first four games last year, Denard had just one interception. Interceptions are ranked #104 Nationally. Overall,  the –1.0 TOM for the week dropped M to #12 in TOM for the year.

The Gory Details

Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the yard line that the offense is at (which seems fairly obvious in retrospect). Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained.

Here are the details for the game.

The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.

The expected point data has been revised this week to reflect updated data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau has updated his data to reflect all offensive possession played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.

Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.

Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).

Here's a five word diary.

Bonus:

So this is it... my first diary! Thanks to those of you who requested that I get the points necessary to post this :-).

EDIT: Since photobucket was resizing my images, I changed the links over to a new site. This will look a LOT better on your monitor!

When I saw that monuMental wouldn't be posting his amazing weekly wallpapers this season, I took it upon myself to carry the torch until his triumphant return. He has since stated that he'll be creating rivalry wallpapers, so I'll take a break on those weeks. Since I've been hijacking posts to upload my wallpapers, here's a review of the ones I've created so far for those of you who've missed them:

Western Michigan "Denard vs Broncos"

Eastern Michigan "Eagle Dove"

San Diego State "Aztec Art"

...which brings us to this week's wallpaper, Minnesota's "Brown Jug Kool-Aid"

4:3 

wide

I do sort of wish that my first diary featured a better wallpaper, but I was having a difficult time adding in a background and went with the minimilistic "monuMental's penn state" look. I've noticed a lot of people commenting on the resemblance of our current 4-0 season to those of the last couple of years. Others, however, have commented on the relative down year the B1G is having and how we have a much better chance of steam-rolling through the conference than in recent years. I'm "cautiously optimistic" myself and thought we could all enjoy a big ol' jug of Kool-Aid to celebrate our success so far. Enjoy!

PS: Here's a link to my wallpaper album, if you or I miss a posting on Monday.

We all have that friend who is a 1 to 5 handicap golfer. You know, the guy you can NEVER beat. Enter the handicap system in golf. It allows players of varying abilities to play against each other on a level playing field. What does the handicap system have to do with college football? Enter the point spreads for each college football game. Besides allowing sports bettors the opportunity to wager on games, a point spread allows for a comparison talent of each team. Maybe it only provides useful stats for betting purposes or for numbers guys, like myself, but it does provide a measure of comparison.

Besides the actual records of each time, I have included the record of the team against the spread (in the first column). I have also broken down the records for each team as a favorite and as an underdog. In the event a line was zero, I considered the home team to be a favorite. This review is limited to BCS conferences and the MAC.

No picks here, look for them in the “Upset Watch: Week 5” on Tuesday.

Note: Stats referenced only include NCAA recognized games.

Big Ten

Wisconsin has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 48.5 points per game. North Carolina State transfer Russell Wilson (1,136 yards passing 75.8% completion 12 total TD), running backs James C. White (303 yards 6.7/carry and 3 TD) and Montee Ball (360 yards 5.7/carry and 10 total TD) have been instrumental in the Badgers success this season both on the field and those favoring the Badgers in the sportsbook.

Opening Line:@ Wisconsin -9.5 Nebraska.

Michigan’s scoring defense is greatly improved from this point last year. Through four games last year, the Wolverines averaged giving up 23 points. This year, the Wolverines have given up an average of 13.67 points (13^th in all of NCAA); the Wolverines have also recovered 7 fumbles (tied for 6^th in all of NCAA).

Opening Line:@ Michigan -20.5 Minnesota.

Penn State has struggled against the spread (and on the field, to some extent), due to the lack of a starting quarterback. Matt McGloin (421 passing yards 63% completion and 3 TD) and Rob Bolden (388 passing yards 46.5% completion, 1 TD and 3 INT) have split time at quarterback, causing uncertainty leading into the Big Ten schedule.

Opening Line:Penn State -17.5 @ Indiana.

SEC

Florida will have a better idea of their expectations for this year, facing two of the top three teams in the country the next two weeks. The Gators won by similar margins over Tennessee and Kentucky last year, before Alabama teed off on Florida, 31-6. Chris Rainey (625 total yards and 4 total TD) and Jeff Demps (320 rushing yards and 4 TD) have paced the Gators this year.

Opening Line:@ Florida +4.5 Alabama.

Big 12

Baylor’s struggles on defense have continued, having given up 31 to Rice and 48 to TCU (in a first career start for Casey Paschall). With that said, through a comparable schedule through this point last year, Baylor averaged 26 points per game. The Bears are averaging 51.33 points per game this year. Robert Griffin III was 55/99 (55.55%) 703 passing 107 rushing and 5 total TD through this point in 2010. Compare that to 70/82 (85.4%) 962 passing 167 rushing and 14 total TD. RG III’s play will determine the ceiling for Baylor’s success, this year.

Opening Line:Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State.

ACC

Georgia Tech’s number two rushing offense has spurred the Yellow Jackets to success on the field and for those favoring the Ramblin’ Wreck. Through four games last year, Georgia Tech averaged 240.5 yards on the ground; this year, the Yellow Jackets have averaged 398.75 yards on the ground this year, leading to a 22 point scoring average increase from this year, as compared with last year.

Opening Line:Georgia Tech -12.0 @ North Carolina State.

North Carolina State has played two FCS opponents and failed to cover against either of them. The Wolfpack are adjusting to life without Russell Wilson, who led the team to 9 wins, last season, the most since 2002. The Wolfpack defense has averaged giving up 408 yards, placing them at 11^th in total defense in the ACC.

Opening Line:@ North Carolina State +12.0 @ Georgia Tech.

PAC-12

Stanford picked up right where they left off last year, starting off 3-0 on the field (last year, the Cardinal were 2-1 ATS, failing to cover against Sacramento State). The Cardinal are 18^th in total offense, averaging 481 yards per game, largely behind the arm of Andrew Luck (786 passing 67.1% completion and 9 total TD) and the legs of Stepfan Taylor (289 rushing 5.4/carry and 2 TD).

Opening Line: @ Stanford -21.5 UCLA.

Oregon State’s nightmare-ish season continued this past week, with a loss at home to UCLA. A quarterback controversy is in full-swing in Corvallis, and the Beavers are looking to replace Jacquizz Rodgers and hoping to get his brother, James Rodgers, healthy. Losing the twins explains the drop in points per game from 26.67 in the first three games in 2010 to 15.67 so far in 2011.

Opening Line:Oregon State +17.0 @ Arizona State.

Big East

Rutgers has put together a nice start to the season with a quality win over MAC-East favorite Ohio University and almost knocking off North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The last time the Scarlet Knights started off 3-0 ATS was 2006, when they went 10-3 ATS (11-2 straight up). Mohamed Sanu (363 receiving 10.1/catch and 4 TD) has led the Rutgers offense. Rutgers and Sanu will have their work cut out for them this week, as they have lost to the Orange the past two years, and failed to cover ATS both times.

Opening Line: Rutgers +3.0 @ Syracuse.

MAC

Temple was one play away from knocking off Penn State for the first time since 1941! Despite the 14-10 loss, Temple knocked off Maryland in College Park this past weekend, in impressive fashion. RB Bernard Pierce (496 rushing 5.7/carry and 12 TD) has led the Owls on offense. The Temple defense has been equally impressive, ranking 15^th in total defense, giving up only 273 yards per game (rushing, 12^th, 75.25/game; passing, 38^th, 197.75/game).

Opening Line: @Temple -7.0 Toledo.

Central Michigan has fallen apart the past two games. After leading Kentucky at half 13-6 in week 2, the Chips have been outscored 110-21, only outscoring Western Michigan in the fourth quarter in week 3, 7-6. Central Michigan ranks 114^th in total offense, with 278.25 yards/game (rushing, 108^th, 86/game; passing, 53^rd, 207.75/game).

Opening Line:@ Central Michigan +10.0 Northern Illinois.