Let's get to know our upcoming opponent the Michigan State Spartans!
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Although yesterday was a relatively breezy day - sometimes literally, if you spent any of yesterday outside - we do have some things to run through in the aftermath of the game thread from just about 17 hours or so ago.
There was light participation insofar as the thread is concerned - 1,260 posts - but this is typical when it is a home game and a liveblog is running for the game. A couple years ago, it was actually fairly rare for threads to break 2,000 posts and this year we've actually only done that once - for Wisconsin.
Anyway, there were only 109 fucks given for this game, which is way down from the high of 422 fucks given during our game with Wisconsin and even less than the number of fucks given for Rutgers. That isn't to say that Illinois is worse than Rutgers - Illinois is Rutgers but with some money in savings, if you will. The number of shits remained fairly steady, only up four shits from last game to 54 shits and down from a season high so far of 102 shits given against Colorado.
How does that translate to tempo-free thread statistics?
FART Rate, or Fucks Adjusted For Real Time, came out to 0.574 for this thread, down slightly from Rutgers and down significantly from Wisconsin, which sat at 2.110. That was 2 fucks given per minute of airtime, in other words.
SHART Rate, or Shits Adjusted For Real Time, was 0.284, which is up slightly from Rutgers, but only a little more than half of the season high against Colorado, which was 0.510, or in the case of that game, one shit for every two minutes of airtime.
The SQUIRT number, or the combined FART / SHART, was 2.019, so almost 2 fucks for each shit, which is less than the season average of close to three fucks for every shit. and down from the high against Wisconsin, which was 6.492.
Of amusing note, the FAP Rate - Fucks Adjusted For Total Plays - was exactly 1.000 - we managed precisely a fuck per snap.
Let's shift to another interesting trend - a noted uptick in "damn". Here's the graph of normalized values for the Original Six of this analysis:
"Damn" is the gray bar, and for the last three games, we've been trending upward overall with its use. Going back through these threads, much of that can be explained with the board's general assessment of the quality of play, but also a couple moments where someone was down or injured. For a long time, we did not use "damn" nearly as much as you would think on the board, but it is beginning to find expression.
Overall efficiency - 474 tracked words measured against thread size - was 2.66, which is the third lowest of the year. Only Penn State and Hawaii managed lower overall efficiency scores. That being said, 2.66 - in the revised scale - is a fairly easy win most times, whereas in the older version of this metric those were typically stressful wins or close losses. Harbaugh effect indeed.
So, on to Michigan State. I am sure we'll have more to report next Sunday.
(Bill Rapai) Just wanted to use this photo
Not good. I have Michigan with a CORSI score of 27. That is just over half of what they had last night. They got six combined attempts from the slot. They scored on three of them. I am running out of things to say about this offense. They just generate very, very few quality scoring opportunities. The attempts they do get are mostly from quite a distance. Yet, enough shots go in. Yay being lucky, I guess...
A major hat tip to Alex Kile who slithered through the slot on his knees and roofed a puck to give Michigan a lead. That was one of the most impressive non-Connor goals I've seen Michigan score in a while. Cutler Martin finished off a rebound to tie the game late in the third after Calderone had driven the net and Pastujov created a nice rebound in front of the crease. Those were both actually very repeatable even strength chances.
Michigan should have gotten destroyed, tonight. I had Tech getting a CORSI score of 59. That over double what Michigan had. And that's exactly what it looked like, as well. If it weren't for some fantastic netminding (and a handful of missed opportunities), this game would have been Tech by 3-4 goals. Michigan Tech was again able to get wherever they wanted on the ice. At least in the 3rd period, Michigan was able to push Tech away from the slot. So, I guess there's that. Tech also hit the post at the end of regulation and again in overtime. Overtime was completely dominated by Michigan Tech, as well. Michigan again struggled with Tech's forecheck, clearing the puck, and retaining any sort of possession anywhere on the ice. It just seems like a matter of time before the goaltending dam breaks and there is a flood of opposing goals.
Michigan, again, finds a way to score on the power play. Will Lockwood snapped in a rebound from the left circle to give Michigan a lead early in the opening period. They ended up going 1/5 in total. In the early third, M had back to back power plays and could not muster more than a single shot. That was discouraging and about when Tech took over momentim and scored a couple of goals. One interesting note: Michigan goes with the 1-3-1 with their first PP line and more of an umbrella on their second PP line. I'm guessing this is because they do not trust anyone but Piazza to stand by himself on the blue line.
Michigan did another good job of only giving Tech four power plays, tonight...not that it didn't seem like even strength was a Tech power play all night, anyway. They did not surrender a power play goal.
There was an interesting bit of 3v3 hockey as both teams took two isolated penalties each. After initial rushes for both teams, no one really took another chance and nothing really came of such a rare opportunity.
Jack LaFontaine put in a shift tonight. Michigan surrended 45 shots and he stopped 42 of them. Tech consistently got down low and filled the slot with scoring chances. Their first goal was the result of a well-played 3v2 that was jammed in by the post. The second was an attempt through a handful of skaters that was twice deflected and went between his JLF's legs. The third goal, he may want back. He was beat far post by a snapshot from outside the left circle...in a seemingly benign chance. Other than that, he did almost everything else at a very high level, especially considering he was pretty much under siege the entire game. JLF looked athletic, quick to react, and controlled his rebounds rather well. Michigan does not seem to have any issues in net.
ODD MAN RUSHES
I counted only three. There were about 2-3 almost OMRs in the second period, but since the puck never got out of the zone, I could count those more as DZTOs. Tech scored an a beautifully worked 3v2 that got stuffed in the far post, beating JLF. The goal was reviewed but it was determined that it was not a kicking motion. It was pretty close. The last two OMRs were a 2v1 and another 3v2...neither came to anything as M actually defended them well. OMRs do not seem to be an issue for M, this season. That's a positive, I suppose.
FINAL CORSI SCORE
Michigan Tech 59, Michigan 27 ( 31% possession)
www.collegehockeynews.com had it 72-29...that's even worse
A slowly growing number of historically minded, stat geek MGoUsers seem to like these posts, so I'll keep them up. The rest of you may allow your attention to wander.
This Week's Results:
Since Bo took over in 1969, Michigan is now 31-11-1 (.733) when playing with the No. 3 ranking in the AP poll.
In that time Michigan is 270-33-5 (.885) when ranked in the AP poll and playing against an unranked team.
Michigan is now 89-27-0 (.767) on Homecoming (including four exhibition games against alumni in the early days).
With Brian Kelly sitting at home today and enjoying his vote of confidence from Savvy Jack, Michigan extends its slim lead over Notre Dame in all-time winning percentage, .7313 to .7297.
Next week against Michigan State will be Michigan's 1300th game. Michigan has a surprisingly poor record of 6-6-0 in its prior "century" games, and has dropped the last two:
|100||Nov 6, 1897||Purdue||
|200||Nov 2, 1907||at Vanderbilt||W, 8-0|
|300||Oct 1, 1921||Mount Union||W, 44-0|
|400||Oct 21, 1933||Ohio State||W, 13-0|
|500||Sep 22, 1945||Indiana||L, 13-7|
|600||Nov 19, 1955||Ohio State||L, 17-0|
|700||Nov 5, 1966||Illinois||L, 28-21|
|800||Jan 1, 1976||
|900||Sep 29, 1984||at Indiana||W, 14-6|
|1000||Oct 24, 1992||Minnesota||W, 63-13|
|1100||Nov 4, 2000||at Northwestern||L, 54-51|
|1200||Nov 1, 2008||at Purdue||L, 48-42|
|1300||Oct 29, 2016||at Michigan State||?|
(Paul Sherman) Late game heroics!
Michigan tallied a season high 45 attempts at the net, tonight (courtesy of www.collegehockeynews.com ). That is their best 5v5 offensive output, yet. Is it growth or might it be the result of playing against another lowly WCHA team? Ummmmm...we will see, but I'm still leaning toward the latter. Jake Slaker notched another goal, early in the first period. He seems to be starting to produce more on the top line. Tony Calderone also nabbed another goal. He got into the offensive zone on a 1v3 and did about the only thing you can do in that situation...he threw it at the net and it went in! Hooray!
Through the first couple periods, Michigan's attack was still rather sparse. They only managed three attempts from between the circles, yet scored on two(!!) of those three. Most of the rest of their attempts came from the edges of the circles or out to the perimeter. In the third period, Michigan doubled their combined 1st and 2nd period CORSI score. They were also better able to get the puck down low and into the slot. The placement of attempts in the third period encourages me...but I'm going to need to see that from an entire game (or a few games) before I am ready to get excited about the offense.
Michigan Tech generated a 57 CORSI score, tonight. This is really not good news. Tech is 1-5-1 after tonight's game. They have played 5 road games (all against ranked opponents), but they are clearly not off to a great start. Looking through the shot charts, Michigan's defense was unable to keep Tech's offense out of the slot all night. In fact, Tech was able to get off shots from all over the attacking zone. The second period was especially disconcerting as Michigan surrendered 35 attempts (22 on even strength). Michigan is walking a very dangerous line with this defense. They are struggling with intense forechecking (same as last season) and are turning the puck over before getting deep into the attacking end (also something not new). Michigan's superior offensive talent bailed them out time and again over the last couple seasons. With the offense taking a step (or 2) back this season, the defense really needs to play at a higher level if Michigan is to compete against better competition. That has not happened, yet.
Jake Slaker continues to stay hot, notching another power play goal. However, in five power play opportunities, Michigan only generated five total shots. That is not nearly enough. I was unable to see the game, tonight, but from what I read and heard, the power play looks slower and inexpereinced (not a total shock after losing so many contributors, last season). It seems that they are still finding a way to take advantage of some opportunities, but unless they are able to create more chances, this rate seems unsustainable.
On the PK side, Michigan only committed four penalties. They only surrendured six shots on those four chances. That is definitely a number they can live with. Improvement from the PK is a nice positive from this game. To add to that, Will Lockwood was also able to score the GWG with under a minute left while being short-handed. Michigan now has three short-handed goals...Max Shuart with an assist on each one. This, also seems highly unsustainable. But Michigan will surely take it, right now!
Hayden Lavigne got his second start in net, tonight, and performed well enough. He faced a ton of shots and chances but was able to stay in front of most of them, stopping 31 of 34. He was also forced to deal with the puck in his slot and crease quite a few times. He looked a little shaky on one goal, according to a few different reports. Still, seeing the sheer volume of attacks he faced, it seems difficult to expect a lot more out of the freshman. Still, the way that all of the goalies have performed, I would expect to see LaFontaine or Nagelvoort in net tomorrow...with no disrespect to Lavigne at all.
ODD MAN RUSHES
I was filming Cass/King at Ford Field for FBO, so I was unable to count OMRs, tonight. Tomorrow, I should be at Yost and will finally be able to fill out this section.
FINAL CORSI SCORE
Michigan Tech 57, Michigan 45 (44% possession for Michigan)
Get ready for a cool fall day in the mitten state! We'll be sandwiched between systems to the east and west, but luckily we also have a high pressure system to the south. This will help to keep us dry throughout the day, although it will be chilly! Highs will be below normal and we'll have a brisk NW wind, so it's a good day for lots of layers. Grab the heavy sweatshirt, hold on to your hats, and get ready to come home for a win!
Woooeee you'll want that hot coffee in the morning if you're running to the store to grab that last crockpot ingredient! Mid 30s and patchy frost to begin our weekend! We'll have sunshine to start the day, but don't expect it to help a whole lot in warming us up. Add in NW winds around 10mph (leaves are in constant motion), and it'll feel a little cooler. Tie down the tent and have a rock to put on the napkin pile! Upper 30s for the mid-morning will turn to mid 40s by lunchtime. We'll still have plenty of sun with some clouds, but winds will have started to pick up. Expect a steady NW wind around 15mph (small branches sway, loose papers in the diag blow about) with some gusts popping into the 20s (small trees sway). Don't be surprised if there are some gusts up around 30mph, which can topple empty trash cans, as we edge closer to game time.
52 degrees for 3:30! Some clouds will hang out for the start of the game, but we'll still have some sun too. And we keep that wind! NW winds will be up to 17mph, gusting into the mid 20s (this is a good breeze - if it was raining it'd be hard to use an umbrella).
Not much change at all as we head through the middle of the game. It'll still be breezy and cool - temps holding at 52. There'll be a mix of sun and clouds with those NW winds still up at 17mph, gusting into the 20s entering the 3rd quarter. The good news is, you'll start to notice the winds lighten as we get closer to the end of the game.
Walking out of those gates -win in hand- you'll want to get a warm dinner! Mid 40s to end the game with some clouds. Although we'll have gotten rid of the gusts, winds will still be around 10mph - just enough to give us a wind chill in the low 40s. Partly cloudy skies will carry us through the rest of the night, helping temps to continue to drop. If you're planning on staying out late, last call will feature low 40s (feeling like the upper 30s) and NW winds staying around 7-8mph. It's a good night to keep ahold of that heavy sweatshirt! Let's go blue!