I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
Basketball is back. Thank god.
Tonight there is an open practice at Crisler, and Monday is the first exhibition game. Finally we can focus on what we have become: #basketballschool. To celebrate the much needed return of basketball season I have created a wallpaper. It was tough picking someone to represent this season, but in the end I went with Beilein. It doesn't matter how many players we lost to the NBA, or how skinny the freshman are. I trust that Beilein will put his players in a position to succeed.
BASKETBALL IS BACK. LET'S RAGE.
Previously: Gardening Lessons (The Story), Preview Podcast, Preseason All-Big Ten Teams, Point Guards, Wings Part 1 (LeVert, Irvin), Wings Part 2 (Chatman, Wilson, Dawkins, MAAR), Bigs (Donnal, Doyle, Bielfeldt)
Rankings via the 247 Composite
The Big Ten doesn’t have any elite one-and-done candidates coming in this year; there aren’t any surefire lottery picks among these freshmen. Still, the collective 2014 recruiting class is very deep: seven players in the top 50, 12 in the top 100, 24 in the top 200. Certain teams—particularly Ohio State, Maryland, Indiana, and yes, Michigan—will need immediate impacts from their incoming freshmen, and several transfers (which will be covered after the freshmen) will be counted on for immediate production. Talent in college basketball oscillates dramatically from year to year, as talented players often defect for the NBA at the first available opportunity, small rosters experience a high percentage of yearly turnover, and incoming freshmen are often ready to contribute meaningful minutes. The Big Ten lost a lot of top-notch talent this offseason, but there likely will be some stars in this crop of newcomers.
It’s easy for Thad Matta to get lost in the shuffle amongst the collection of stellar coaches in the Big Ten, but he’s simply phenomenal (even notwithstanding last year’s backslide): few coaches have a comparable coaching tree—the Boston Celtics’ Brad Stevens, Arizona’s Sean Miller, and Illinois’s John Groce headline—few can recruit as well as Matta does on a consistent basis, and few coach defense as well as he does. With the departures of Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith, and LaQuinton Ross, Matta needed to win some major recruiting battles and unsurprisingly, he finished with the best class in the conference. Because of the influx of promising blue-chip talent (and incoming Temple transfer, Anthony Lee) and the existing nucleus of solid defensive players—Shannon Scott, Sam Thompson, and Amir Williams all fit nicely into Matta’s tenacious man-to-man scheme—Ohio State is projected by many to finish second in the conference behind Wisconsin. It’s a hard-to-predict team with a high floor and a low ceiling, but they do look pretty great on paper.
D’Angelo Russell is the most well-regarded incoming recruit in the league and he should start next to Scott right away in the backcourt. Like Ross and Deshaun Thomas before him, Russell will likely be tasked with being Ohio State’s primary offensive weapon. Between his excellent shooting ability, all-around scoring potential, and his frame and athleticism, Russell is a prototypical two-guard. He doesn’t have elite, NBA-ready physical tools, but OSU could do a lot worse than turning to Russell in hopes of resuscitating a staid offense that finished 128th nationally last season.
Keita Bates-Diop and Jae’Sean Tate (both former Michigan targets) sort of overlap, but they play with distinctly different styles. KBD and Tate are combo forwards; either can probably play the three or the four—KBD is a skilled and very long stretch-four who can slide to the three; Tate is too small to play the four right now, but his maximum upside probably comes as a ferocious rebounder and inside-out scorer as an undersized four. KBD’s best known for his scoring, Tate’s best known for his rebounding ability, though both can certainly defend. How the Buckeyes sort out the minutes on the wing will be quite interesting: Sam Thompson and Mark Loving deserve major minutes, but KBD and Tate might be too talented to leave on the bench. Dave Bell probably won’t contribute this year with the logjam of players ahead of him.
Click on image to enlarge.
Anthony Lee was a good addition for Ohio State: Big Ten players who had statistically comparable seasons to his final year at Temple were almost all fairly decent rotation guys at the worst. He’ll probably play center for the Buckeyes and he’ll compete with Amir Williams for minutes. In any case, the platoon of Lee / Williams is significantly better than Williams and Trey McDonald. Lee may provide more scoring punch than Williams has so far in his career, but Lee isn’t outstanding in that regard—he takes almost three quarters of his shots at the rim and only finishes at around 50% there (per Nylon Calculus).
[After THE JUMP: Maryland, transfers, and such.]
THE ROAD TO A TERRIBLE BOWL HAS ONE LESS BUMP
Decided to do one more update along these lines...
With that win over Indiana, you will be pleased to know that bowl eligibility has become slightly more likely, at least by the revised Massey numbers that I threw into the matrix this morning.
How much more? Well, consider that – as of right now – our chances to win at least two games now stand at an estimate 26.65%, which is merely the sum of the probabilities of winning all three or any two games. At this same point last week, we were talking about a number which sat around 12% or so, but of course having no result for the Indiana game at that point would make that result naturally lower.
The matrix for the remaining games now looks like this:
Like last week, the blue boxes would be hypothetical wins and in each box, you’ll find the most recent available projection from Massey Ratings. Over in the “PROB” column, the green boxes are the scenarios where we end up bowl eligible and the yellow boxes are where we get sent home with a year’s supply of Rice-A-Roni, a ton of Turtle Wax and the board game version of the show that we’re now on.
Here’s the rough distribution for any number of remaining wins:
It basically says exactly what you would have thought. That is to say, it says we now stand a realizable chance at being a 5-7 team after having at least put ourselves in a position to be a potential 4-8 team. It’s definitely progress and the picture grows more clear if not more rosy as we slide into this game in Evanston on Saturday.
If we win on Saturday and don’t change any numbers in the matrix for the moment, then bowl eligibility is essentially a 50/50 proposition (well, 52.48% technically), so the numbers rather make the next two games key, but particularly this next one. Why? If we lose to Northwestern and change no other numbers for the sake of providing an estimate, bowl eligibility is a 5.52% chance away then.
I’m going to make this a monthly update, I think. Let me know what I missed, or if you have any more insight that I can add.
October Notes: Darius Morris waived by Portland
Trey Burke (2011-13) | Jazz, Starting PG
- For the first three games of the year, Burke is shooting 34.9% from the field (13.3% on 3-pointers). 1.88 AST/TO ratio, -1.3 NetRtg, and 4.8 PIE.
Jamal Crawford (1999-2000) | Clippers, Backup G
- In the first 2 games of the year, Crawford is shooting 38.5 on field goals (31.3 3P%), and has hit 13/14 free throws. 2.33 AST/TO, 15.8 NetRtg, and 17.2 PIE.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (2010-13) | Knicks, Backup G
- Through 2 games, Hardaway has a NetRtg of -48.1 and PIE of -1.1.
Nik Stauskas (2012-14) | Kings, Backup G
- In 2 games, Stauskas has a -18.3 NetRtg and -4.5 PIE.
Glenn Robinson III (2012-14) | Timberwolves, Backup SF
- Made final roster, but listed as inactive.
Mitch McGary (2012-14) | Thunder, Injured PF
- Out for approximately 3 more weeks with a fractured foot.
Mike Brown (2004-05) | Sharks, RW
- Played in two games so far, only statistic is 7 PIM.
Mike Cammalleri (2000-02) | Devils, LW
- 5 goals, 2 assists, +2, and 8 PIM in 8 games.
Andrew Cogliano (2006-07) | Ducks, C
- 1 goal (SHG), 3 assists, and 4 PIM in 13 games.
Luke Glendening (2009-13) | Red Wings, C
- 1 goal and 6 PIM in 11 games.
Carl Hagelin (2008-11) | Rangers, F
- 2 goals, 1 assist, and 6 PIM in 10 games.
Matt Hunwick (2004-07) | Rangers, D
- 2 assists and 4 PIM in 8 games.
Jack Johnson (2006-07) | Blue Jackets, D
- 5 assists, -9 +/-, and 8 PIM in 11 games.
Jon Merrill (2011-13) | Devils, D
- 1 goal (PPG), 3 assists, and 8 PIM in 11 games.
Al Montoya (2003-05) | Panthers, G
- Given up 1 goal on 38 shots in 2 games.
David Moss (2002-05) | Coyotes, LW
- 1 assist, -6 +/-, and 4 PIM in 6 games.
Eric Nystrom (2002-05) | Predators, LW
- 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 PIM in 11 games.
Max Pacioretty (2008) | Canadiens, LW
- 5 goals, 4 assists, +7 +/-, and 10 PIM in 12 games.
Chris Summers (2007-10) | Coyotes, D
- 1 assist, -2 +/-, and 2 PIM in 5 games.
Jacob Trouba (2013) | Jets, D
- 1 goal, -2 +/-, and 4 PIM in 12 games.
American Hockey League
East Coast Hockey League
Rich Hill (2000-02) | Yankees, LHP
- Pitched in 16 games as a reliever for a total of 5.1 innings. 3.38 ERA, 2.44 WHIP, and 9/6 SO/BB ration.
- Was signed by Yankees on July 17th.
Zach Putnam (2006-08) | White Sox, RHP
- Appeared in 49 relief appearences, 5 wins and 2 losses, with 6 saves. 1.98 (!) ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 46 SO vs. 20 BB, and 2 HRs.
Justin Meram (2009-10) | Columbus Crew, Forward
- Scored a big goal in a playoff game this week.
- Played in 32 games this year (starting 19). Scored 8 goals on 21 SOG, with 4 assists.
- Has 13 goals in 90 games (43 starts) for the Crew in the past 4 years.
Soony Saad (2009-10) | Sporting Kansas City and Lebanese National Team, Forward
- Scored 3 goals with 1 assist in 22 games (9 starts) this year.
- In the last 4 years with Sporting KC, Saad has 8 goals and 6 assists in 58 games (26 starts).
Kofi Opare (2009-12) DC United, Defender
- Traded from LA Galaxy on July 29th.
- Played in 6 games with LA this year, starting 5, but did not play a game with DC.
Let me know what I missed, or if you have any more insight that I can add.
Week 9 Notes: Jordan Kovacs was signed by the Dolphins! Alan Branch picked up by New England.
Tom Brady (1997-99) | Patriots, Starting QB (W 43-21 vs. DEN)
- Very impressive game from Brady: 33/53 for 333 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. Was sacked once.
- Brady passed John Elway for fifth on the all-time passing yards list, with 51,541. He has also won 42 straight home games vs. AFC teams.
- For the year, Brady is 214/334 for 2,392 yards, 22 TDs with 3 interceptions.
Denard Robinson (2009-12) | @denardx | Jaguars, RB (L 33-23 vs. CIN)
- 3rd straight game as feature back, 3rd straight impressive game. 94 yards rushing on 17 attempts (long of 39), and 1 rushing TD. Also caught a 12-yard pass.
- Has started 3 games this year, has rushed for 423 yards on 85 carries, and has 14 receptions for 57 yards. Robinson has zero fumbles, compared to 3 fumbles on 20 rushing attempts last year.
Jason Avant (2002-05) | Panthers, WR (L 28-10 vs. NO)
- 1 catch for 8 yards.
- In his first year with the Panthers, Avant has made 20 catches on 29 targets for 193 yards, and 1 TD.
Junior Hemingway (2007-11) | @younghemi21 | Chiefs, Backup WR (W 24-10 vs. NYJ)
- 2 catches for 9 yards.
- In 8 games, Hemingway has 10 receptions for 98 yards.
Michael Cox (2008-11) | @mikecox1mill | Giants, KR (MNF vs. IND)
- Returned kicks for 33 yards.
- Has played 3 games, exclusively in kick returning duties.
Patrick Omameh (2009-12) | @patrickomameh | Buccaneers, Starting G (L 22-17 vs. CLE)
- QB was sacked twice.
- Has started all 8 games this year.
Steve Schilling (2007-10) | Seahawks, Backup G (W 30-24 vs. OAK)
- Started, although he was questionable due to knee injury—QB was sacked once.
- In his first year with Seattle, has started 4 straight games.
Alan Branch (2004-07) | Patriots, Backup NT (W 43-21 vs. DEN)
- Played a handful of snaps, no statistics.
- Was picked up by NE on Wednesday, and only got two practices in before the game.
- Had a career year in 2013 with Buffalo, but was cut in fall camp due to failed condiitioning test and getting a DUI.
Tim Jamison (2005-08) | Texans, Backup DE (L 31-21 vs. PHI)
- 2 tackles.
- Has started 1 of 9 games this year. Jamison has recorded 13 tackles, 1 recovered fumble, and half of a sack.
Brandon Graham (2006-09) | @brandongraham55 | Eagles, Backup LB (W 31-21 vs. HOU)
- 2 tackles, 1 sack. Played 13 passing downs and had 5 QB hurries.
- Has not started yet this year, but has 20 tackles, 3 sacks, 5 TFLs, and 3 forced fumbles in 8 games.
Kenny Demens (2009-12) | @kdemens25 | Cardinals, Backup ILB (W 28-17 vs. DAL)
- 1 tackle.
- In 8 games played, Demens has recorded 6 tackles and 2 forced fumble.
Larry Foote (1998-2001) | @larryfoote313 | Cardinals, Starting MLB (W 28-17 vs. DAL)
- 5 tackles.
- Has started all 8 games in his first year with Arizona, recording 41 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 INT so far.
David Harris (2004-06) | Jets, Starting ILB (L 24-10 vs. KC)
- 4 tackles.
- In 9 starts, Harris has recorded 68 tackles and 1 forced fumble.
Leon Hall (2003-06) | Bengals, Starting CB (W 33-23 vs. JAX)
- 5 tackles. Was injured on a hit to the head, questionable for next week.
- Has 39 tackles and 1 interception in 8 starts.
Charles Woodson (1995-97) | Raiders, Starting FS (L 30-24 vs. SEA)
- 5 tackles.
- Has 50 tackles and 2 interceptions in 8 games.
Stevie Brown (2006-09) | @steviebrown27 | Giants, Backup FS (MNF vs IND)
- Brown tore his ACL and missed the 2013 season, and has started 3 games this year. He has amassed 13 tackles in 7 games.
Taylor Lewan (2009-13) | @taylorlewan77 | Titans, Starting T (Bye Week)
- Started third consecutive game.
Mike Martin (2008-11) | @gomikemartin | Titans, Backup DE (Bye Week)
- Started two games this year, with 10 tackles.
Ryan Mundy (2003-06) | @rmundy29 | Bears, Starting SS (Bye Week)
- Has recorded 43 tackles and 1 pick-six interception in his first 8 games with the bears.
Did Not Play
Chad Henne (2004-07) | @chad_henne | Jaguars. Backup QB
- Did not play. There are calls for him to get playing time due to Bortles’ turnover issues.
- Started 3 games to begin the year. 42/78 for 492 with 3 TDs and 1 interception and 1 fumble. Has apparently lost starting job to rookie Blake Bortles.
David Molk (2007-11) | Eagles, Backup C
- Had started past 4 games, due to starter injury.
Michael Schofield (2009-13) | @schoblue75 | Broncos, Backup T
- Has yet to play. Is marked as inactive.
Jonathan Goodwin (1999-2001) | Saints, Injured C
- Missed his first game since 11/24/2008.
Cameron Gordon (2009-13) | Patriots, Injured LB
- On injured reserve.
Jake Long (2004-07) | Rams, Injured T
- Tore his ACL last week for the second time. Out for the year.
- Has been a starter since he entered the league 7 years ago.
LaMarr Woodley (2003-06) | @lamarrwoodley | Raiders, Injured DE
- Placed on season-ending IR with torn bicep.
- 4 tackles in 5 games.
Will Campbell (2009-12) | @idonttweet73 | Bills, Practice G
Jordan Kovacs (2009-13) | @jkovacs32 | Dolphins, SS
- Was just picked up by the Dolphins (again) to take over for an injured player. Played in 9 games last year for the Dolphins.
Some assumptions this post makes:
Brady Hoke will no longer be the head coach of Michigan Football in the next few weeks and months.
Jim or John Harbaugh would be willing to come coach at our school.
The methodology of this website is sound. Overall website link: www.playoffstatus.com
I'm fairly confident we're going to see regime change although I do agree we should really go after a homerun hire that has a really high probabilty of working out otherwise if we hire somebody who is not a slam dunk and does not engender excitement we could be in for some rocky road and not of the yummy variety.
Anyway, I found this site which frequently updates season scenarios for different teams within the NFL and for other sports. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a methodology so this should be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, right now Jim Harbaugh is 4-4 in the NFC West (good for one game better than the last place Rams) and John Harbaugh is 5-4 in the AFC North which is half a game better than the 5-3(!) last place Cleveand Browns(!!!!). Also, Both teams have already lost to two divisional rivals already, the Cardinals and Steelers respectively, although the Ravens split so no tie breaker for the Steelers to my knowledge which is limited when it comes to the NFL and it's mysterious processes.
Finally, the percentages: according to this model the 49ers have a 70% chance of missing the playoffs at this point most likely because the Cardinals so far look like a lock to win the division going away; meanwhile the other Harbaugh and his Ravens have a slightly better 67% chance of missing the playoffs. Primarily the reason for such a high percentage for John Harbaugh is his team is in one of the toughest divisons in the NFL since every team is above .500, parity uber alles. That AFC North playoff picture looks a lot more fluid since all the teams are so tight and it may only be resolved in late December.
Same Charts from the Site:
NFC West Playoff Standings
|Record||Divisional Winners||Wildcard||No Playoffs|
AFC North Playoff Standings
|Record||Divisional Winners||Wildcard||No Playoffs|
Bottom Line: Thus far we're looking in good shape that both Harbaughs miss their post season meaning we could try to make them our head coach sometime around December 28 7:30 - 8:00 PM EST, roughly. This is of course fluid and both are really good coaches and it's only the halfway point so they could turn this around, but luckily for us they are in some tough divisions which could make these coaches available sooner than we originally thought. In conclusion let's go Cardinals and Seahawks in the NFC West and Steelers, Bengals, and Browns in the AFC North.