Diaries

Given that my beloved undergrad alma mater is coming up to Michigan to play my beloved grad school alma mater I felt a way too early preview of how the academy football program works as well as a preview of this year’s team was in order, especially as the Academy has concluded their Spring practices and we’re going to be starved for other types of content over the next few weeks.

Differences between the Academy program and the rest of college football:

Players recruited tend to be top out as low 3-stars, most are two stars or unranked.  Competition tends to run to non-BCS schools for players, there’s usually 3-4 players per class that have legit BCS caliber offers.  Recruiting strategy is to cast a wide net and bring in a large group of players.  There’s also an emphasis on grabbing high-school quarterbacks as they tend to be good athletes and have higher football IQ’s.  I’ve seen some people express concerns that Air Force and the other academies are over-signing by typically bringing in classes of 40+ players.  The difference is that every cadet at the Air Force Academy doesn’t have to pay for a single thing and in fact get paid a small salary reflecting their jobs in the Air Force and every cadet gets the same financial deal.  If you leave the football team or get cut your status as a cadet is not affected and therefore there is no financial impact because you are no longer on the team.  There is also no redshirting as every cadet must graduate within four years.  The academy prep school performs a rough red-shirting function but the(at least advertised) purpose of the prep school is academic.

Once a player agrees to attend the Academy his path diverges based on whether he qualifies for admission straight-away or not.  If he qualifies straight-away he enters the academy as a freshman goes through basic training and then gets to see the practice field starting in August.  While Basic Cadet Training isn’t the starvation fest it used to be, players still aren’t on a summer weights program and they’ll still have lost some weight.  Combine that with the general low recruiting profile of most players and now you know why you almost never hear about impact freshmen playing at the academies.  However, the academy runs a JV team that most Freshmen play on that plays area prep schools.  It runs the same offensive and defensive systems as the Varsity team and gets guys live game experience while they get recover from Basic and get adjusted to Academy life

If a player doesn’t qualify for admission right out of the gate he will go the Air Force Academy prep school in order to get test scores and grades to make admissions standards.  The prep school has a team which plays in the prep school league and runs the same offensive and defensive systems as the Varsity team. If the player gets his grades and test scores up while at the Prep school, he has the option to enter the academy as a freshman.  Not all of them do this, some players decide they don’t want to go to the academy based off of their prep-school experience and some are actually recruited away by other schools if it turns out they can play.  Generally speaking players who go to the prep school need to be re-recruited. 

Spring Practices Freshman year tend to be when the cuts happen.  Players are informed whether they have the option of joining the varsity team the next year or whether they will be finding other pursuits.  Generally this conversation isn’t much of a surprise and most of my buddies who got cut expressed relief that it was over and that they didn’t quit.

What does this mean to Michigan? Despite the fact that Air Force lost a ton of starters, their replacements have had more experience in live game situations in the same system than most college players taking over as first-time starters.  While the loss of experience is a concern, it’s neither atypical for the academies nor likely to have as big an impact as many imagine.

The offense:  Air Force uses a triple option system that is mostly wishbone based but also incorporates some Wing-T concepts from when Troy Calhoun was at Wake Forest under Jim Grobe, himself a former assistant at the Air Force Academy.  The base set outside of the QB and O-line is one WR, one TE, a combo WR/running back, a halfback, and a fullback.  Calhoun has thrown quite a few wrinkles into the offense and it won’t always run out as a base set, but the offense will always return to the triple option well.  The offensive system is hugely productive running the ball and not so much when it comes to passing.  I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, nor am I going to tell you how the triple option works as smart football does a much better job than I do.   Given the presence of Ryan and Kovacs on the outside edges and the effectiveness of Michigan State’s cut-blocking scheme during the trash tornado, expect Air Force to try to establish the running game through the fullback on up the gut runs and exploit the inexperience on the interior of Michigan’s D-line.  They’ll probably also try to catch JT Floyd cheating up on run support and go over the top on him for deep strikes.  Air Force executes the offense well and when playing teams that don’t have much experience playing them, they can catch teams off-guard.  This unfamiliarity with the wishbone/triple option is the source of them upsetting power teams or keeping the game close enough for the rooting interests.

The defense:  Air Force runs a 3-4-4 that in practice runs to a 5-2 type system with the outside linebackers pushed up to the line.  Generally the Front 7 is undersized and the defensive backs are slow.  As you can tell this leads to defense being Air Force’s vulnerability from year to year.  Air Force will never have a shutdown defense, what they’re going to do instead is try to slow the other team down, frustrate them and bait them into a mistake that either puts them in an untenable down and distance or results in a turnover.  Raise your hand if that sounds like the perfect way to defend Denard.  The problem here is that Tim DeRuyter, previously Air Force’s excellent defensive coordinator, left for Texas A&M two years ago and is now the head coach at Fresno St.  Air Force’s defense wasn’t very good last year, but the old coordinator left and the new one, Charlton Warren(personal aside: a classmate of mine) is a disciple of DeRuyter’s and will at least try to bring the scheme back, he was also one of the stars of the 1998 team that beat Washington in a bowl game and knows how to play successful defense at the academy. 

The buzz from the Spring:  Keep in mind that everything that’s available on the Academy’s Spring practices comes off of the (free) Scout boards or the local newspaper in Colorado Springs.  Thus reports from Colorado Springs are IMO wildly biased and optimistic.  The bullets that follow are based off my reading between the lines in an attempt to get closer to the truth.

- The Offense will be fine, although the starting QB is still inconsistent with the pitch, but he’s a good runner who makes good decisions in the running game. 

-The running back corps is deep and looks like a major strength for the academy.  The Fullbacks ran well all spring and run about four deep, Mike DeWitt came in for particular praise.  The top two tailbacks are good, but depth behind them is a concern.  Expect Wes Cobb, last year’s starting fullback, to start, but Jon Lee has made a ton of noise and will get a lot of carries as well.  Put a gun to my head and I’d say whatever big plays come from Air Force will come from him. 

-The defense still is not inspiring any confidence.  The coaches seem to be trying to make up for the lack of any real playmakers by installing a high-tempo, everyone to the ball attitude.  This sounds vaguely familiar for some reason.  I don’t expect next year’s defense to have a Mattison-esque revival, but they should be better than they were last year.

The far too early call:  This one’s going to be a long afternoon for me and whatever few other Air Force fans end up gracing the stadium.  I expect the defense to get overwhelmed quickly and the offense will not be able to keep up, especially with Kovacs and Ryan shutting down the edges.  Michigan 45-Air Force 17.

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If anyone on MgoBlog is like me, this is the time of the year you start thinking about possible Away Game Road Trips for the upcoming Michigan Football Season. It would be great if I had the time and money travel to every away game, staying in a hotel at a prime location for a long weekend of bars and football, but I’m not at that point in my life right now. I (like most others) have to find a balance between time, effort and cost in deciding which away games to attend. The following information is to help people with their planning and hopefully you guys can help me with any advice you may have. These away games are a huge part of my Michigan Football season, and I have always said that one away game equals three average home games. I love visiting the towns, meeting the opposing fans and hearing a nearly silent stadium every time Michigan scores a touchdown. Go Blue!

9/1 vs. Alabama

Arlington, Texas

Getting There: 1203 miles/ 19hrs. 29min. Flights from DTW: $471+

Where to Stay: 20+ hotels available within 4 miles of the stadium at $50-$324/night

Early StubHub Prices: $315+

My Take: My first reaction when I heard about this neutral site game was “I wish it was a home and home”. I would have paid almost anything to travel down to Alabama. I can’t justify paying $1000 for air fare, $600 for a hotel, $600 for two tickets and a couple hundred for a rental car. That’s almost $2500 for a couples days with a football game thrown in. Yes, I could have extended the trip and maybe drove down to Austin to make a vacation out of it but that’s a lot of money for Texas. 

9/22 at Notre Dame

South Bend, Ind.

Getting There: 169 miles/ 2 hrs. 55 min.

Where to Stay: 6 hotels available within 2 miles of the stadium at $269-$420/night

Early StubHub Prices: $315+

My Take: South Bends close proximity to Ann Arbor makes this really tempting. I would probably drive there in the morning and tailgate all day. Then drive home after the game. $300 is a lot for a football ticket but given the fact that my only other expense would be food, gas and parking, it would actually be one of the least expensive away games to attend.

10/6 at Purdue

West Lafayette, Ind.

Getting There: 296 miles/ 5 hrs. 4 min

Where to Stay: 1 hotel available within 2 miles of the stadium at $244/night

Early StubHub Prices: $70+

My Take: I already booked my hotel room for this game. Purdue is an easy ticket to get and a laid back stadium atmosphere. This is the first time I’m staying in West Lafayette. I’m staying at the Holiday Inn Downtown and I have been told that there are bars and restaurants within walking distance of the hotel. The last time I visited Purdue for a game we drove down that morning and arrived two hours before the game. We drove back immediately after the game. It was a long day but still a great time.

10/27 at Nebraska

Lincoln, Neb.

Getting There: 748 miles/ 12hrs. 38min. Flights from DTW: $453+. Another option that I am considering is taking the train from Ann Arbor for $109 roundtrip (17 hours).

Where to Stay: 2 hotels within 1 mile of the stadium. $225-$600/night. 16 hotels available 1-3 miles for the stadium at $43-$346/night.

Early StubHub Prices: $219+

My Take: I’m definitely going! I have family that lives five minutes from the stadium. Yes, ticket prices are expensive but not having to pay for a couple nights at a hotel easily offsets the ticket price. I have friends that are also making the trip to Lincoln that have said the hotel choices are pretty bad. They said that you either pay a ton for an average hotel or you are staying in a dump. They actually opted to stay a 30 minutes outside of Lincoln.

11/3 at Minnesota

Minneapolis, Minn.

Getting There: 650 miles/ 11 hrs. 29 min. Flights from DTW: $316+

Where to Stay: 10+ hotels available within 2 miles of the stadium at $80-$150/night

Early StubHub Prices: $99+

My Take: I have never been to Minnesota but I love the fact that they have their own outdoor stadium now. With affordable tickets and cheap hotels, I will definitely be making a trip up there sooner rather than later. Other than the Mall of America, I know absolutely nothing about Minnesota.

11/24 at OHIO

Columbus, Ohio

Getting There: 191 miles/ 3 hrs. 11 min.

Where to Stay: 11 hotels available within 2 miles of the stadium at $75-$230/night

Early StubHub Prices: $323+

My Take: This would definitely be a “get in and get out” type of road trip. I know everyone has their stories about Columbus but I have to get down there for a game one day to see for myself. Again, tickets are and will always be expensive to OHIO, but at least it's close and you don't have to stay the night.

* all mileage is from Ann Arbor*

I hope this has got everyone thinking about their 2012 Away Game Road Trips. So where are you planning to go this year?

Michigan Hockey: 2012 Recuits

Forwards

Our top forward prospect in the 2012 class is Cristoval "Boo" Nieves and he is a guy to get excited about.

If we were going by a star system for recruiting, which hockey does not use, he would be a borderline 5* prospect. Scouts love his balance of size, speed and playmaking ability enough to call him Top-30 prospect in the upcoming NHL entry draft. The only knock against him was his decision to play his senior year at Kent Prep instead of at a higher level, although he will be joining the Indiana Ice as his high school season has concluded.

He has the ability to make an impact right away for Michigan no matter which line he plays on. Whether it is taking the spot vacated by Luke Glendening or on a lower line, he will be able to provide scoring that was not there. It's just a matter of how fast he adjusts to the speed and talent at this level that decides how much of an impact he has.

Daniel comes into the 2012 season as quite an unknown, as you can see the chart is much smaller for him because I could not find any specifics out about him.

One thing is certian though, this kid can play. He played Junior A hockey for the powerhouse St. Michael Buzzers finishing with a 16-31-47 line. The Owen Sound Attack thought highly enough of him to trade up and take him in the third round of the OHL draft, despite him only being 17 years old.

Because of my inability to find film or relevant information regarding position, I can not say what role he will have in the 2013 season. I do feel like he can be a huge sleeper like Phil Di Giuseppe was for us last season, and like I said with Nieves any scoring done on the fourth line is an improvement for Michigan.

Our third forward recruit in the 2012 class comes to us from Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.  Not a huge prospect in terms of the scouts buzz, but he is listed as a prospect who can sneak into the draft in the late rounds.

As a player who is known more for his physical play,  Justin will most likely start on the 4th line and work his way up. He is the perfect candidate for the Vaughn/Lebler breakout player of the year down the road, as a big bodied forward who plays on the checking line until having a 20-30 point senior season.

Defense

All Hail the gem of our recruting class. He started his season with the NTDP before moving up to the U20 team.

Jacob Trouba is expected to be drafted very early in the upcoming NHL entry draft. Just from looking around at various mock drafts he looks to fit in around the 8-11 range, which means nothing because it is an internet mock draft but still gives us an idea what kind of player we have. 

As of this point we do not know the role Jacob will play for the Wolverines yet, that is because we do not know the status of Jon Merrill and Lee Moffie. If they stay the pairs could look like this; Merrill-Moffie, Bennett-Trouba, Clare-Serville, with Chiasson and Carrick picking up extra minutes at the end. If they do not stay Trouba becomes a necessity and is first pair the second he gets on the ice.

Either way most people have him as a one-and-done prospect and I don't see anything that would challenge that statement. He has great offensive ability, great speed and is a physical player with outstanding vision.

He will be our highest drafted defensmen since Jack Johnson and it was a miracle we got him for a second season, so much that Carolina traded him because he wouldn't come up. That was a very uncommon situation so don't expect it to happen again.

Here is another player Wolverines fans should get excited about, because he is about as underrated as you can be. Carrick is a shutdown defenseman who is praised for his hockey I.Q. He will be drafted, but it remains to be seen where.

A smart blueliner with great puck skills and good size, Connor will anchor the Wolverines defense in the future. With a large group of D-Men coming back this season he will have to earn his playing time, which I think he can do. Look for him to get minutes on the third pair to start out, before working his way up later in his career. 

Goalies

Jared comes into the 2012 season as the presumed starter. He is a very good goalie but scouts looked at him as a developmental prospect, not a goalie you want to throw into the fire from day 1.

With that being said Josh Blackburn is an excellent coach who developed Sauer, Hogan and Hunwick, so if anybody can get Jared playing at a high level fast it's Josh. It doesn't hurt that he could have one of the deepest bluelines in the NCAA next year in front of him.

Expect a battle for the top spot between Jared, Janny, Dwyer, and newest goalie Steven Racine.

Steven is the darkhorse in the Great Goalie Competition of 2012. After a few rough seasons in the USHL he really hit his stride playing for Georgetown (OJHL), going 15-0 last year and posting a GAA of 1.66 and a SV% .938. He is a little older than Rutledge coming in at 21.

It's no secret Red loves big goalies and Racine fits the mold. I really believe he is going to make a big push for the starting spot, If not we have a good solid netminder to build around for future teams.

It was a relatively quiet week in recruiting—in fact, there were no commitments for any team until the weekend—but Rivals did update their rankings with a large group of three-star prospects, so the numbers are a little less wonky this time around. Changes since last rankings:

3-24-12: Notre Dame picks up Colin McGovern and Hunter Bivin.
3-25-12: Wisconsin picks up Austin Ramesh.
UPDATE: Notre Dame picks up Mike McGlinchey and Malik Zaire.

Chart? Chart:

^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as one-star players. This may be a bit unfair this early in the process, considering there are many unevaluated recruits out there at this stage, but that's life.

On to the full data:

This is my first Diary entry. Go easy please.