Diaries

REGULAR SEASON IN REVIEW: SUMMARY-TYPE STUFF

Well, all the data for the regular season is now and we are hopefully setting up for a nice postseason run in Ann Arbor, both in the conference tournament as well as in the NCAA Tournament. With any luck, we’ll still be sitting here in a couple weeks with the season still going for us, but then we won’t really know how that journey will begin until this coming Sunday. All the same, I did want to share at least some of the summary data from the season with the board, or at least the stats that I had been tracking anyway.

First, here is the overall summary:

WHOLE SEASON	MICHIGAN	OPPONENT
Field Goal %	48.20%	44.28%
Three Point %	39.56%	33.23%
Effective FG%	55.97%	49.56%
Free Throw %	75.44%	72.69%
Off. Rebound %	28.86%	28.02%
Def. Rebound %	71.98%	71.14%
Assist / Turnover Ratio	1.77	1.29
True Shooting %	60.36%	53.12%
Free Throw Rate	36.46%	28.20%
Possessions	62.46	62.77
Points / Possession	1.21	1.04
Turnover %	12.98%	15.29%
Points	75.53	65.20

Many stats in basketball are up and down with particular games, so it is sometimes difficult to establish many reliable trends. In the case of Michigan, a couple of these stats are interesting in that they were – for basketball – relatively stable. For example, points per possession throughout the season looked like this:

The standard deviation for this particular statistic for Michigan is 0.12, which is fairly narrow, I would say. What it seems to say is that, overall, we were both effective and efficient and able to control the game throughout. That seems consistent with the fact that the standard deviation of total possessions was only 3.6 possessions. Michigan made the rules, if you will, on most nights.

Defensively, as summarized in “This Week’s Obsession”, it is what it is. Here is the rough trend for opponent points per possession:

So, there was a slight decline as the season pressed forward, and that would be consistent with how the majority of the more strenuous complaints about defense – particularly transition defense and easy looks – came in the last half of the conference schedule.

Here is the out-of-conference summary:

OUT OF CONFERENCE	MICHIGAN	OPPONENT
Field Goal %	47.09%	41.97%
Three Point %	37.92%	35.20%
Effective FG%	54.90%	46.96%
Free Throw %	73.33%	71.86%
Off. Rebound %	31.62%	25.64%
Def. Rebound %	74.36%	68.38%
Assist / Turnover Ratio	1.90	1.06
True Shooting %	58.96%	50.50%
Free Throw Rate	35.84%	25.93%
Possessions	65.03	65.12
Points / Possession	1.22	0.97
Turnover %	11.99%	16.18%
Points	79.08	63.50

With noted exceptions, we did quite well overall in the first 12 games. Most of the statistics above swing decisively for Michigan, but the overall strength of the schedule should always be taken into account. One thing I was curious about here – mainly because I didn’t think about it before – was the advantage in turnover percentage, which we lost when we hit the conference schedule. That’s because we ran into far more disciplined teams, of course, but the whole season trends looked like this:

Michigan –

Opponent –

Again, very rough trends, but my suspicion was correct - our TOV% actually became marginally worse whereas opponent TOV% was decreasing (roughly) as things progressed. Indeed, when you see the conference table, the nearly 5% advantage you see above narrows to less than 1%.

The conference table:

IN CONFERENCE	MICHIGAN	OPPONENT
Field Goal %	48.94%	45.82%
Three Point %	40.65%	31.92%
Effective FG%	56.69%	51.29%
Free Throw %	76.85%	73.24%
Off. Rebound %	27.02%	29.61%
Def. Rebound %	70.39%	72.98%
Assist / Turnover Ratio	1.68	1.45
True Shooting %	61.30%	54.87%
Free Throw Rate	36.87%	29.71%
Possessions	60.74	61.21
Points / Possession	1.20	1.08
Turnover %	13.64%	14.71%
Points	72.53	65.53

As many of the previous diaries seemed to point out, great shooting was going a long way for us. Indeed, average effective field goal percentage for Michigan is still about 5% higher in the conference schedule. We lost the advantage in rebounding, but we were still getting sent to the line more (free throw rate) and making a few more of those free throws typically. I know some people mumbled a bit about how a fair number of the games in the conference were close, and indeed, the average scoring margin – win or lose – was +6.8 points. The adages are true then – “gotta make that shot” and “gotta make your free throws”. We did more often than not.

Not much to say other than "Thank you" to JMo.  Hell of a time at UM.  He's been a source of great joy and great consternation for MGoBlog.  Anyway, I'll be keeping this short since my keyboard/mouse are on the fritz.  Hope you enjoy this!  I'll be working on some more wallpapers for the tourney just like last year.  As always, any ideas you'd like to see are welcome.

Go Blue!

 

Desktop (1920x1080):

- JonValk

Really crunched for time this week so I don’t have a column-like thing to lead off with. Instead, please enjoy these non-sequiturs from Alex Guptill and Delonte’ Hollowell.

I love the all-caps philosopher. So true.

 

Ohio State at #13 Michigan

 

Friday, February 28, 2014

 

1^st Period

OSU 1 UM 0 04:26 EV

Schilkey from Niddery

Ohio State carries the puck through the neutral zone and gain the offensive zone, where it looks like the puck carrier is going to cut to the middle. That shouldn’t be a problem; Serville can take the guy skating towards the outside while Sinelli checks the guy in front of him.

Instead this turns into a lesson in why one shouldn’t chase the puck carrier. Sinelli gets caught up in his own feet trying to go front-to-back, but Copp’s close enough to check the puck carrier. Serville should stay in the circle that I’ve drawn around him and check the OSU player in said circle.

He skates all the way over, leaving the side of the front of the net exposed. Sinelli eventually fills the void, but he doesn’t notice the forward (Schilkey) who’s coming in with speed until it’s way too late.

I call this screenshot “Lost in Spacing.” Which is a stupid, punny way of saying hey maybe the defensemen shouldn’t defend an area with the same five-foot radius.

 

OSU 1 UM 1 19:31 EV

Guptill from Compher

 

2^nd Period

OSU 2 UM 1 10:00 PPG

Szczechura from Jardine & Jedig

Lynch does a good job of getting back across the ice and into shot blocking position. He gets his stick in the shooting lane, and Jardine’s shot deflects off of it.

It takes a strange bounce, and Szczechura comes in behind the play to tap it into the net.

 

3^rd Period

OSU 2 UM 2 14:44 EV

Guptill from Allen

Allen wins a battle in the corner and rifles an incredible pass to the slot for Guptill.

Guptill’s initial shot is stopped, but Tomkins gives up a rebound off of his left pad. Guptill is right there to put the puck up and over the already-butterflyed Tomkins.

 

 

#13 Michigan at Ohio State

 

Sunday, March 2, 2014

 

1^st Period

UM 1 OSU 0 02:26 PPG

Kile from Copp & Downing

Copp has the puck at the top of the circle, and you can see that Michigan has two players in front of the net. They’re there, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re screening the goaltender.

That does not, however, mean that the netfront players are in a bad position. Copp shoots, and the puck goes in off of a redirection from the blade of Kile’s stick.

 

UM 2 OSU 0 7:03 PPG

Moffatt from Copp & Downing

OSU is in a traditional box on the penalty kill. Looking at the red arrows below, you can see that none of the sticks that OSU players have in the passing lanes dissuade Copp from passing to a wide-open Moffatt.

Moffatt puts a great shot on net, but credit Kile for setting a great screen in front of Tomkins.

 

2^nd Period

UM 2 OSU 1 3:03 EV

Gust from Niddery & Healey

Downing gives up the puck after getting run over in the defensive zone. OSU picks it up and moves the puck through the neutral zone. They end up on a break with a 2-on-none advantage.

De Jong almost gets back on the backcheck but, like, doesn’t. Racine’s in a bad position; his stick is out like he thought about poke-checking Niddery before he passed. He vainly tries to apply that poke-check to Gust, but Gust just puts the puck over Racine’s blocker.

 

UM 3 OSU 1 6:12 PPG

DeBlois from Guptill & Nieves

Nieves misses a shot high and wide that then ends up in the corner. Guptill gets it and passes to DeBlois in the slot. OSU’s defenders are a step too deep, and they can’t do anything to stop the one-timer.

 

UM 3 OSU 2 17:45 PPG

Angeli from Jardine & Gedig

OSU enters the zone with speed. Like, lots of speed.

Angeli runs over Racine and the puck somehow goes in. Sigh.

Circled below: a centaur, but worse.

 

3^rd Period

UM 4 OSU 2 10:30 PPG

Di Giuseppe from Clare & Nieves

The defender circled above in red is shaded off of Di Giuseppe, instead choosing to check Guptill. This leaves Di Giuseppe open on the outside. Clare, playing his signature point position on the power play, moves the puck down to PDG.

PDG one-times the puck into the open corner of the net before Tomkins can flinch. Di Giuseppe cathartically jumps for joy after he scores.

 

UM 4 OSU 3 11:49 EV

Jardine from Niddery & Johnson

Racine stops the first shot and the rebound bounces all the way out to the faceoff circle. That’s actually not that dangerous, but this still ends in a goal. Jardine gets the puck near the blue line, holds it, and then unleashes a big shot that beats Racine (who stays upright for too long).

 

This comes a little late this week as I have had many offline things going on which sort of prevented me from working on the truly important items such as MGoDiaries, but before we play our final regular season game on Saturday, I thought I might provide a minor update to folks. One thing I will say, however, is that it is nice to know that the title is ours now and that we aren’t in need of any help from any one game to clinch it, nor do we need to win the last one, although I am sure that, like me, you want this last one quite badly given the opponent.

So, the summary averages after 17 conference games look like this:

 

	MICHIGAN	OPPONENT
Field Goal %	48.98%	45.03%
Three Point %	41.47%	31.51%
Effective FG%	56.97%	50.40%
Free Throw %	76.10%	72.36%
Off. Rebound %	26.52%	29.59%
Def. Rebound %	70.41%	73.48%
Assist / Turnover Ratio	1.65	1.46
True Shooting %	61.31%	53.93%
Free Throw Rate	35.99%	29.42%
Possessions	60.64	61.00
Points / Possession	1.20	1.08
Turnover %	13.97%	14.34%
Points	72.53	65.53

 

One thing that does come to mind here is that the advantage in assist / turnover ratio seems to be slowly returning after spending several weeks nearly matching that of our opponent’s average, so the ball distribution and ball handling has definitely been better lately. I know we saw how good it could be in the Illinois game. I added the average points here because I think that it is significant that, on average, we are beating opponents by three possessions, and if we narrow it to just wins, that margin in wins is 11.5, so four possessions in that case. That’s fairly decisive, I would think, particularly in a conference like the Big Ten. That we typically win with room to spare, if you will, has helped make this season very enjoyable indeed.

There is something else worth mentioning here. The points per possession stands at an average of 1.20, which is very efficient from an offensive standpoint, but it came to mind to ask the other day just how consistently efficient has Michigan been in conference play. As it turns out, the standard deviation of the individual PPPs is 0.12, so we definitely have a rhythm and style that is well-defined and generally won’t stray from too much. There are noted exceptions, of course, but it points to very consistent play on our part.

This idea about the rhythm of the game and how good this team is at controlling play most of the time also shows up in a brief analysis of possession average. In conference play, we have averaged 60.67 possessions per game with a standard deviation of 3.67. It may not look pretty at times, but that’s a team that is generally controlling the pace of the game, I would think.

LAST 5 GAMES:

Here are the four factors over the last five games, as well as A/T ratio. As usual, we are the blue line –

 

This season, at least in my mind and in a good way...

 

[Ed-Ace: BUMP. GIFs coming either late this afternoon or tomorrow, depending on whether this three-point supercut breaks Photoshop.]

Rooting against this guy shouldn't be too hard.

Last night was a great night of basketball, not only because of Michigan's win, but because a number of well-established teams lost. Tuesday night was just a microcosm of what has been seen in the past 7-10 days as about a dozen ranked teams lost (and some more than once). For example, Creighton, Syracuse, Iowa State, Ciny and St. Louis have all lost two straight games. MSU fell to Illinois while  Kansas and Louisville lost games as well. 

The rash of losses by top teams has placed Michigan firmly on the 3-seed line, with an outside shot at a 2-seed. According to the Bracket Matrix, Michigan is the second 3-seed behind Virginia. With Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova and Syracuse as twos and Kansas, Florida, Arizona and Wichita State as the one seeds.

Of course, there's still a lot of basketball to be played and if this frantic, unpredictable nature of college basketball continues its course over then next week and a half, anything can happen. Let's recap the top seeds and how they have performed overall and in recent games to see who/what we should hope for down the stretch.

 

One Seeds (these teams aren't going anywhere)

Wichita State - 31-0. Not going anywhere.
Florida - 28-2 and 17-0 in SEC. Not going anywhere.
Arizona -27-2 and conference champs. Could slip to a 2-seed if they lose final two games and tournament opener. Highly unlikely. Not going anywhere.

Kansas - Dropped a game against Oklahoma State this past week. And while they have a favorable schedule against Texas Tech and West Virginia. Anything can happen. At 22-7, Kansas is ranked No. 8 in the nation. They are however, 2nd in RPI compared to Michigan at 13. I'm no Ken Pomeroy, but I think Michigan would need a bit of help or luck to pass Kansas in the brackets.

What to root for: Kansas to lose any and all remaining games. Unless they play Iowa State, which we will visit later in the article.

 

Two Seeds (longshots to drop, but it could happen)

Syracuse - Lost two more games in their last two outings including last night's game versus lowly Georgia Tech. Syracuse only has four losses on the season but have quickly played themselves out of the 1-seed. Currently without Jerami Grant, Syracuse is at risk of losing against Florida State this weekend. Additionally, two of Syracuse's losses are against bottom ACC teams Boston College and Georgia Tech which are as bad or worse as Michigan's losses to Charlotte and Indiana. Syracuse is currently ranked No. 7 in the nation, but will likely drop when the polls are re-released on Monday.

What to root for: Syracuse to lose out, or lose against FSU and perform poorly in conference tournament.

Duke - The Blue Devils have been on auto pilot most of the season with no back to back losses or particularly troublesome stretches. RPI is 7, SOS is 9. They would need to lose to Wake Forest and North Carolina to lose their standing as a solid two seed. Of course, one of those teams, North Carolina, is on the 4-line.

What to Root For: Duke to either beat North Carolina to get them off of Michigan's heals, or for Duke to lose out. It is never a bad idea to root against Duke.

Villanova - No recent upsets or losses. All three losses are against top 25 teams. Two regular season games left (against Georgetown and Xavier). And like Duke, probably not a legitimate candidate to move too far south. 

What to Root For: Villanova to lose out. Like Duke, Kansas and Syracuse, that's the only way they will drop far.

Wisconsin - Top non-conference RPI. Fifth overall when factoring in conference games. Two conference games remaining versus Purdue and Nebraska.

What to Root For - Wisconsin losing games is always fun so lets root for them to lose out. In reality, the Badgers need to lose one regular season game and their first tournament game.

 

Three Seeds (Michigan needs to pass Virginia and a 2-seed to move up)

Virginia - Haven't lost in nearly two months and only one regular season game left (against Maryland).  They are close to Michigan and Michigan needs to pass them and one more team to reach that two line.

What to Root for: Maryland to beat Virginia on Sunday and for Virginia to lose early in conference tournament. Since they are closest to Michigan seed-wise, maybe even one loss and perfection by the Wolverines could spring Michigan to the top 3-seed. Still, Michigan needs to pass two teams to earn that 2-seed.

Iowa State - Top 10 in RPI, but now below Michigan in polls after back to back losses to Kansas State and Baylor. Still on the 3-seed line according to Bracket Matrix but behind Michigan.

What to root for: Iowa State to lose to Oklahoma State to give Michigan some wiggle room. Also, root for the Cyclones to not run the table in the B12 tournament. They could pass Michigan if they outplay the Wolverines between now and selection Sunday.

Creighton - 11th in RPI but fading hard in the polls after back to back losses to Xavier and Georgetown. Bracket Matrix has them as a three seed but below Michigan.

What to root for: A loss to Providence in regular season finale or an unconvincing tournament run in the Big East Tournament.

 

Four Seeds (Don't Get Jumped)

North Carolina - They play Duke in their conference finale and with a win, could finish second in the ACC. A strong performance in the conference tournament could push them to the 3-line. 

What to root for: North Carolina not getting to that 3-line.

Michigan State - They are a hot pile of garbage right now but get to play Iowa and OSU, plus the B10 tourney. What if they go 4-1, or even win damn conference tournament? If that happens, I will punch a desk. Let's not think about that happening. Seriously, if Michigan can't win the conference tourney, they sure as hell don't want MSU or Wisconsin winning it. Standard complaints about OSU apply, but if you are a Michigan fan, you would rather have the Buckeyes or any other team win over Wisconsin and MSU.

What to Root For: More excuses out of East Lansing.

Cincinnati - Lost two in a row to UConn and Memphis, but can still win their conference. Could also get quality win over Louisville in conference tournament.

What To Root For - Cincinnati to lose another game. Or not win their conference title. Louisville is on the 5-line so Michigan fans really don't want them to run the table either. Let's just root for Southern Methodist to win the conference title. *(Craig James Killed A Hooker.)

San Diego State  - Hi Steve Fisher! The Aztecs have two games left. One versus 21st ranked New Mexico. Likely not enough to get them jumping up spots.

What to Root For - You root for Steve Fisher, because he's Steve Fisher god dammit. He's a nice man!

 

Conclusion: Michigan is all but certainly a 3-seed, but crazy things can happen. A bad run by a few others could spell a 2-seed for Michigan. Conversly, losing to Indiana and dropping the first round of the B10 tourney could leave Michigan susceptible to losing the 3-seed. Of course, 2-3 of the following: ISU, Creighton, MSU, NC would have to right the ship.

I will be the first to admit that I've been as critical about Nik Stauskas as anyone.  I questioned his ability to combat athletic on ball defense.  I questioned his short area quickness and his consistency.  I also cringed watching him defend other elite wings.  Nik Stauskas is not a finished product....but I'll be damned if he is not the Player of The Year in the B1G.  This kid has shown such tremendous growth in just a year's time.  He has transformed from a corner shooter to a playmaking offensive machine.  Nik Stauskas has answered the bell and his contributions this season have spearheaded the best conference run in recent Michigan History.

 

I'd like to bounce some ideas off of my fellow Michigan enthusiasts of which I'm referring to as the Stauskas Effect.  There are several chain reaction events that I have identified and have attributed to the development of Nik Stauskas's game.  These are opinions and this post is meant to spark positive conversation so please chime in! 

The Stauskas Effect:

1. Led to the Pressure-Less development of Caris Levert in a sort of Robin-like role to Nik's Batman.  Caris has been able to ease into the #2 scorer role without the pressure of the opposition's top defender.  This will be huge next season as Caris may be a #1 option.

2.  Nik's development has also lessened the pressure to rush Zak Irvin into the fold which likely makes Zak a 3-4 year player all while allowing Zak to have substantial contributions this season.  I see a lot of Nik in Zak and I believe that Zak is in for a huge jump next season.  Caris Levert's assertion offensively and GR3+ The Beast hopefully returning will still render Zak a 3rd or 4th scoring option....which means hes sticks around a few years :)  This also means that DJ Wilson and Kameron Chatman will have time to develop behind Irvin and Walton which will allow for seemless changing of the guards leadership wise over the next 4 years of Michigan Basketball.  This is truly huge and does NOT happen if Nik doesn't morph into the POY candidate that he is.  His development has added years onto Zak.....GR3...Walton .and likely Chatman's career. 

3. Nik's 1v1 ability has also lessened the pressure of Derrick Walton's development due to Nik's ability to create and the rate in which we give Nik the rock at the top of the key.  Walton has been able to play off of Nik and hasn't had to face the oppostion's best defenders as a result.  This has allowed Walton to avoid being thrown into the fire so to speak and will pay dividends down the road.  (Spike is also due much credit for easing Walton in) 

4.  The Internationa (Stauskas)l Effect.  Nik is Canadian...duh.  It's one thing to claim that your a world wide recruting program.  It's another to take an underrated kid from Canada and develop him to Stardom in the Nation's toughest conference.  Belein has done just that.  Somewhere there is an underrated Canadian...or Australian...or British kid with a world of talent just waiting to be tapped into.  He will be approached by a few universities that will promise the world.  When Michigan comes calling....he will have a real life example to follow and believe in.  Canada is an untapped gold mine that is just waiting to flourish.  Nik has opened the flood gates for future Canadian athletes in Ann Arbor amongst other nations.

5.  The Re-inforcement of "Michigan Swag".  Michigan has been known for having players in the past that had a little spice in their game.  Players that were better than you and they let you know about it with demonstrative gestures and maybe even a little jaw-jacking.  Some purists may not prefer this type of behavior and to each his own.  Nik Stauskas has "Swag".  He plays with a chip and an extra bounce.  He makes being a "Shooter" cool...even though we now know he is much more than just a shooter.  Nik is what we used to call on the playground, "a Bad Ass White Boy".  I think Nik has taken right where Tim and Trey left off and carried the load as the Michigan Star player.  He had a Februrary lull but has really picked it up.  I think kids that watch Nik will gravitate to our program because at Michigan you can be a Scholar Athlete of the highest caliber and look damn good doing it.  A lot of people not in tune with the 16-22 year old mindframe may disagree....but "Swag" is important especially in recruiting.  Nik has it and has made us look damn good this season.  Luke Kennard is a name that I would watch going forward....he is the perfect example of a kid that could replicate Nik's game in college.  (and not just because he is white)

6.  Nik's probable B1G Player of the year award will cement Michigan as a guard/wing hot bed in the Midwest and start to pay even bigger dividends on the recruiting trail.  Manny....Darius...Trey....Tim...now Nik in just the past 4 years.  We are putting elite NBA talent out year after year and it's going to get noticed.  Tim and Trey last year could be looked at as a rare output.  Not with Nik following up their departure in as grand a fashion as this.  We are approaching Guard U status....at least as far as the Midwest is concerned. 

 

I'll be honest with you...I think Nik Stauskas goes pro.  He is a top 20 pick and despite his defensive inability and need for additional strength....he is still a solid 1st round draft pick.  Another year could make him a lottery lock and folk hero in Ann Arbor to the Nth degree......but I just don't think we're going to be that lucky..  I'd love to be wrong. 

 

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