Diaries

Previously on Michael Schofield, This Is Your Life Game:
Denard Tacopants INT (PP - http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-denard-tacopants-int, MPP - http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/moving-picture-pages-denard-tacopants-int)
Fourth and Fun (PP - http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-fourth-and-fun, MPP - http://mgoblog.com/diaries/moving-picture-pages-fourth-and-fun)

Original Picture Pages at http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-getting-denard-edge.  Analysis courtesy MGoBlog.

One thing that confused me about The Michael Schofield Experience Trilogy was that the Picture Pages appeared in a different order than the plays occurred.  Although this is the third (Moving) Picture Pages, it's the first play of the three.  I think it would have told a better story if this had been the first PP (hero doing his job), Tacopants had been the second (villain adjusts, hero fails to notice, Bad Things Happen), and Fourth and Fun had been the finale (hero adjusts and saves the drive).  But this ain't Hollywood - this is FOOTBAWWWWWW.

Setup: It's Michigan's second drive.  They are facing second and twelve from the Northwestern 44 after a holding call on Hopkins and an eight-yard throwback screen to Gallon.  Michigan comes out in a 2TE 2WR shotgun; NU counters with a 4-3 under and the Sam lined up outside of the TE.

Wha'hoppon: The call is a play-action rollout.  Schofield pulls with an assignment to seal off the EMLOS.  The Sam steps up into the outside gap as Denard pulls the ball out.  Schofield adjusts by deepening his pull, allowing him to make contact with his downfield shoulder and get around for the seal.  With the corner secured, Denard scoots outside for an easy eight yards.

Full YouTube page is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeTh_-cTC2o

Michigan basketball: Frontcourt Preview

Two part preview of the 2011 roster, part one can be found here

Returning

Jordan Morgan RS Sophomore Center

2010 stats

The obvious choice for last seasons breakout player of the year, morgan was the benefit of a redshirt year, darius setting him up, and the addition of Bacari alexander as a position coach. After getting blasted by concordia early in the season jordan really made improvements on the defensive side, and on offense he added another dimension because of his ability to slip ball screens. Reports from coach beilein so far have indicated jordan spent most of the summer working on a jumpshot, which is great because I can't remember him scoring if it wasn't a layup or a morale crushing dunk. Foul trouble is an issue and I also expect offensive numbers to drop, that doesn't mean he will be less of a scoring threat just that he won't sustain the ridiculous FG%

Zack Novak SR Forward:

2010 stats

This will change. I do not expect novak to play the four spot when the season starts, but this is where he was last year so it's where he will be previewed. Most fans are anticipating a move back to the 2 spot because of the lack of depth and it should benefit him moving back to a natural position. Undersized against almost everyone he played novak became the poster child for Michigan basketball; gritty, hard working, and determined. Not to mention every clutch shot he made in the last three seasons. He steps up In the biggest games and always puts the team first, and for that reason zack novak will go down as one of the most beloved players in Michigan basketball history.

Evan Smotrycz SO Forward

2010 stats

Lanky perimter shooter for most of the season last year coming off the bench. Then we saw JB's basketball genius as he unleashed Smotrycz's inside game against michigan state to help sweep the series. This season he looks to take an expanded role and move into the starting four spot, and offseason reports say he gained a significant amount of weight. Last year when smotrycz had his shots contested it got ugly, he had a huge problem with shot selection and had way to many blocked. If he progresses with his inside game and defense he can be a major contributor, if not we could see novak playing this spot.

Jon Horford SO Center

2010 stats

Not a major contributor last season mostly because of his weight and inexperience, and was slowed by injury. This season he was picked by coach beilein to have a jordan morgan like breakout after he reportedly gained around twenty five pounds. Still at this point his season looks to be coming off the bench as morgans backup, but hopefully can be a reliable option if needed for long streches.

Blake McLimans JR Forward

2010 stats

Bench player who will not see extended playing time without an injury occuring. Started the year getting decent minutes off the bench but his awful three point shooting (1-19), bad rebounding and foul trouble led to the decline of his minutes.

Colton Christian SO Forward

Not a contributor, should remain the same for 2011.

Incoming

Max Bielfeldt FR Forward

A late commitment to the class, the only other major offer max held was from illinois (which kind of means something but not as much as it used to) to go along with mid-major offers from WMU, UIC, and Ball State. I trust coach beilein when it comes to talent evaluation so I see no reason why max can not be effective coming off the bench for 10 minutes a game at the four spot.

Not many highlight videos available.

As few of you noticed, I didn’t meet my Thursday night deadline for posting. I was in the midst of a bi-polar episode that threatened all of Wayne County to the point where even gang members were put on high alert and locked their doors. The Detroit Tigers were playing the hated Skankees of New Amsterdam. I could not focus on much more that Cabrera’s baby face and Delmon Young’s long ball. Not that there was much to write about last week anyways. To my five followers, I apologize.

Two Saturdays ago, Michigan humiliated and kicked the LOLophers 58-0 like Lewan kicking a three legged donkey destined for hell after being pushed through a meat grinder. The only surprise I had out of the game was that the lowly LOLophers couldn’t even manage a field goal. Props to the defense for getting the first shutout in a long time. Minnesota, the team who cannot beat the Dakota’s I-AA teams even though their roster out numbers both Dakota’s population combined, couldn’t even score if they were at a blind swinger’s party carrying Spanish Fly. The game was a not even a contest from the beginning to the end, especially when Michigan sent out their color guard team after halftime.

What was interesting was the dual play of Gardner and Denard. This idea was clamored for all of last year but perhaps Gardner wasn’t ready yet or Josh Groban’s greatest hits were playing too loud in the locker room for anyone to hear the idea. I have a distinct feeling that we will see this package expand in numbers played and the playbook expanded in different looks. I am sure Gorgeous Borges has something up his sleeve for the slime west and sludge south of Ann Arbor.

The past weekend’s B1G matchup brought an experienced QB and a higher quality team over all in Michigan’s first road game*. Dan Persa, who seems to me to be currently enrolled on the Van Wilder eligibility program, posed a threat to a defense for the most part untested by a quality QB. Yes, I know we played Carder, but Carder wouldn’t be able to hold Persa’s grandchildren’s pacemakers. Not only was Northwestern a better quality opponent than all but one of our past five games, but we were sitting on the record of 5-0 with a #12 ranking in the nation. #12?! The Notre Dame voters must have finally given up on overrating the fighting Holtzssffff and switched their attention on Michigan. We are definitely better than last year, but not yet at an almost top ten level in the nation. The ranking, along with the curse of Premature E-Jubilation that MGoBloggers has embarrassingly suffered from the past two years was heavy in most rational minds**. The fear and angst of being on the brink of bowl eligibility without ever accomplishing it until late in the season was almost too much for me. I once had this feeling of fear and angst before. The target:  the prom with a beautiful girl from my senior class. The outcome; scrambling to pick the best of the leftovers, reaching the dance with a less than preferred date, and getting blown…….out at the after party when the fruit punch and Oreos were gone. Everyone was tired from such a fuckin wild night. How we didn’t get arrested, I do not know. Luckily I have ceased my behaviors of illegal persuasion and currently am applying for priesthood. Whoa, went on a tangent. Back to the story. I once had a goat named Sally…..

Northwestern came out in command of offense and defense for almost the entire first half. I felt the curse of 5-0 lurking in the shadows like some angry pedo-bear ready to pounce on a young, unexpecting defense. As I sat in a Flint living room, at halftime I had to take drastic measures. I started munching on Zingerman’s Black Magic Brownies expecting the best medicinal buzz Michigan could provide in a tasty snack. Waiting for it to kick in, I chugged a bottle of Robitussin for my “head cold” and the last four beers of my Rascal White Ale for a runway easer for my magic brownies. I was ready to take on the sorrow and pain of Premature E-Jubilation like a champ.

After halftime I began to feel a little better. The perfect doom preparation concoction was working. I began hallucinating the Michigan defense literally ripping the head off Persa and Pat Fitzgerald getting a flag because his face color matched his purple jacket. He and Brian Kelly would make a wonderful profit on creating a coloring book for young children with anger management issues. At any rate, the Michigan offense also began to trip me out by actually moving the ball all the way into those colored zones on each end of the field. Somehow HOKE always eludes media by slipping out of the locker at halftime, installing magnets in those end zones, and then installing the matching magnets in his offense’s shoes, or for Denards case, his socks.

By the end of the game, Michigan post magnets shut out Northwestern 28-0. Add that to pre-magnets, and you get a final score of 42-24. As I came down from my E-Jubilation concoction, I realized three things.

1. We are bowl eligible. Is the curse finally broken?

2. If we are defensively talented enough and offensively diversified enough to beat the slime from the east, Michigan could make a legitimate run at the B1G title. The rest of the B1G seems to moving downwards. This means our last greatest challenge of the year as of right now may actually be the fighting Zookers.

3. There is nothing magic about the Zingerman’s brownies. I want my money back for false advertising. I also want to congratulate Robitussin for coming through in the clutch and picking up Zingerman’s slack.

Seems as if little brother experienced a three year growth spurt. Along with puberty comes wild mood swings, false confidence, violent behavior, trouble with the law, and lots of acne. Time to pop the zits.

*Road game to Michigan-Chicago campus at Ryan Field.

**Rational descriptor for MGoBloggers may be an overstatement.

Soulfire21, went over Debunking the Bye Week Myth earlier this week, showing that in general, teams coming off of a bye week usually lose. From 2000 to 2010, teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .480, a shade less than .500. However, Big Ten teams are noticeably worse when coming off of a bye week; Big Ten teams have a winning percentage of .350 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams are below the national average by .150. By default, nationally, teams playing teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .520 and teams playing Big Ten teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .650.

Although the average team performs worse when coming off of a bye week, I wondered if there was an exception. Some coaches have their teams perform better than average after bye weeks and some coaches have their teams perform worse than average, right? This also means that some coaches have to be better than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week and some coaches have to be worse than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week.

Before I started writing this diary, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have a below average record playing after a bye week and that Brady Hoke would have an above average record playing against teams who were coming off of bye weeks. I had no rational reason for these predictions. I just don’t like Dantonio and I like Brady Hoke.

My method for checking my predictions was quite simple, just look at the W/L record of Mark Dantonio (as a Head Coach) coming off of a Bye Week and then look at the record of Brady Hoke (as a head coach) playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week.

Mark Dantonio Coming Off of Bye Weeks

*10 day bye week instead of a full 14 day bye week

Interesting Notes

-Mark Dantonio, as a head coach, is 3-4 when coming off of a bye week. That is good for a winning percentage of 0.428. That puts Dantonio below the national average by .052 but above the Big Ten average by .078.

-As MSU’s head coach, Dantonio is 1-1 coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .500, .020 above the national average and .150 above the Big Ten average.

-Biggest loss: 31 points in 2008. MSU vs. PSU

-Smallest loss: 15 points in 2005. Cincinnati vs. USF

-Average loss margin: 23 points

-Biggest win: 39 points in 2004. Cincinnati vs. Memphis

-Smallest win: 4 points in 2010. MSU vs. Purdue

-Average win margin:  21.7 points

-Dantonio is 2-0 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .520 above the national average and .650 above the Big Ten average.

-Dantonio is 1-4 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of .200, .280 below the national average and .150 below the Big Ten average.

Brady Hoke Playing Against Teams Who Are Coming Off of a Bye Week

*10 day bye-week

Interesting Notes

-Brady Hoke is 9-1 (!) when playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .900 (!). He’s outperforming the national average by .380 and the Big Ten average by .250.

- Biggest/Smallest/Average/Only loss:  4 points in 2009. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Biggest win: 34 points in 2010. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Smallest win: 10 points in 2010. SDSU vs. New Mexico

-Average win margin:  23.3 points

-Brady Hoke is 6-1 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of .857, .337 above the national average and .207 above the Big Ten average.

-Brady Hoke is 3-0 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .480 above the national average and .350 above the Big Ten average.

Upon taking a closer look, Dantonio outperforming the Big Ten is not very impressive for 3 reasons. Reason #1: Saying you’re doing better than the worst is inherently not impressive. You’re still doing worse than the best. Reason #2:  2 of his wins came in 2004 at Cincinnati, his first year as a head coach. After 2004, Dantonio lost every single game coming off of a bye week after until last year against Purdue. Even in that game, MSU barely managed to pull out the victory against a bad, 4-8 Purdue team. He clearly struggles in the games after bye weeks. Reason #3: Dantonio is very, very bad after bye weeks when he playing against teams with a winning record (1-4).

For the good guys, Brady Hoke is great when playing against teams coming off of a bye week. His only loss against a team coming off of a bye week was by 4 points. Although most of his wins came against teams who ended their seasons with losing records, he is undefeated against teams with winning records (3-0).  He easily outperforms both the national and Big Ten averages.

Bye weeks are of no advantage to MSU, and actually might hurt MSU’s chance of victory. MSU coming off of a bye week is more of an advantage to Michigan than to anyone else.  Mark Dantonio’s ineptness playing after a bye week coupled with Brady Hoke’s adeptness playing against teams coming off of a bye week point only to good things for Michigan.

P.S. This is my first Diary, so let me know if there is anything I should change, not change, do, or not do in the future. I’ll probably write something similar to this for the Purdue game, looking at how Brady Hoke fares when playing after bye weeks. 

as always, comments are appreciated

http://www.scribd.com/doc/68651497/msu-miniprogram

msu miniprogram

Human beings to do not like being rebuked. I’m not talking about sitting around, blabbering on and on about matters of opinion. If you and your friends are arguing about who was supposed to win the game this weekend, then rebuke, no matter how wrong you think your friend, roommate, or barstool neighbor is, should not enter into the equation. However, sometimes a human being or an organization does something wrong; flat out, unanimously guilty, infinitely, inescapably, wrong.

Over the course of the summer, beginning with mumbled rumors in spring, we got to see an arch-rival, the hated Ohio State Buckeyes implode on a most incredibly entertaining level. Now, my point in this diary is not to discuss what the NCAA will do, or not do, not to shed light on Gee and Smith, not even to debate whether what they did was wrong. All of this has been covered. I’d like to look at the Ohio fan base response and ask, why?

We all have several stories of buckeye pals (if you’re willing to put them at “pal” status) who have responded to their beloved team’s recent moral short comings in outstandingly irrational ways. Hands down, the most frustrating conversation I’ve ever gotten into over the matter, which inspired this little written piece, occurred last Friday, at a local sports bar.

I was choking down buffalo wing after buffalo wing, chasing them with tall Coors originals, when I got into a conversation with the gentleman sitting next to me. You know how this goes:

Me: Yeah, I’ve been a Michigan fan since I was born.

My Neighbor: Oh, well that sucks.

(ENGAGE BATTLE MODE)

It turns out that the dude in the Tap-Out hat, with the beard that was longer at the goatee portion than his cheeks, with the gigantic metal bulb earrings was an Ohio State fan. I immediately went for the jugular, (rude, I know) and asked him if the Bucks were going to make a bowl game this year. As I’m sure you already know, things turned ugly…fast. What the conversation boiled down to was a debate of the violations that had been reported against that school down south. After I listed off only half of them (I hadn’t made it to the Pryor fiasco, yet) he stopped me and said, “You know, the way I see it, is that everybody does that stuff.” All I could hear in my mind were the words “You know, everybody murders people”, but I kept smiling and nodding. I asked him why hadn’t everybody been caught, or at least been the subject of a major scandal that snagged more ESPN headlines than the New York Yankees post-season departure. His response?

“That stuff doesn’t matter.”

I’ll make this clear, if any of you and I are ever in a conversation in which you tell me that not only the law, court decisions and well-backed investigative journalism, let alone pure founded logic “doesn’t matter”, our chat will probably end there, too.

I finished my wings, drank my beer, and spent the rest of the weekend wondering.

In reality, friends, human beings will do everything within their power to simply, not be wrong. Most Ohio fans didn’t even attend the school, or play for the team, but they still hold fast, denying any wrong doing, or referencing other unfounded cases of corruption in (not just) college sports. As a living being in a human body, we can force ourselves to accept our circumstances: being lied to, losing our job, being accused of a crime…but not being wrong.

And this is why, until the day I die, until the day my future children’s children die, the Ohio administration and fan base will always respond to accusations of corruption during that ten year stretch of domination thanks to Clarett, Smith and Pryor, with the following statement:

“You know it happens everywhere.”

When clearly, it doesn’t.