Diaries

 Friendly advice on a philosophy of watching college basketball from a Kansas grad:

 Despite being a Michigan fan through-and-through, I attended KU as an undergrad.  Why am I telling you this?  Well, Mr. Spanish Inquisition, I am telling you this because it was while attending KU that I learned important lessons about following college basketball, lessons that I list below (and that you can of course take or leave).  I've meant to post this at some point, and now seems as good a time as any given last night.

 A quick note about KU:  KU can lay claim to being the Michigan of college basketball.  KU’s first coach, for example, was Dr. James Naismith himself, who course invented the game after the indoor dachshund fights that he had organized for his students led to the loss of a number of fingers and eyes.   Kansas can also lay claim to Forrest “Phog” Allen (the father of basketball coaching), Wilt Chamberlain, Danny Manning, and William S. Burroughs (the "Gentleman Junkie Jumpshooter").  More, KU has more than 2,000 college basketball victories, consistently dominates the Big 12 (and the Big 8 prior to that), has three national championships and numerous Final Fours to its name, and…you get the idea.

 Naismith, moments before realizing that his over-sized ball fit into his basket:

KU fans have understandably high expectations for their team, and this is where the important point is for us:  Hardcore Kansas fans are a largely joyless and unhappy bunch.  The theory of hedonic adaptation posits (this is the short version) that humans will return to a certain baseline of happiness  regardless of their circumstances, and, though hedonic adaptation is not universally recognized as a psychological reality, Jayhawk fans certainly seem exhibit it.  They find little happiness in victories – even when those victories are in games that clinch a regular season conference championship or a conference tournament championship.   These victories, after all, are expected.  They happen most years.  Kansas fans are accustomed to them, and what excitement is there in the status quo?  The Kansas fan finds little to enjoy in the humdrum realities of simple excellence.  Why should we clap when the sun comes up?  It comes up every day.    

KU fans suffer terribly, though, with almost any loss.  Given that KU is supposed to win, it can only be the team’s own failures, the refs, or some cruel trickster god that could cause them to lose.   Rarely is an opponent acknowledged as being better than the Jayhawks, and this leads to much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth among Kansas fans.   Lose to Oklahoma State at home?  How did that happen!  Lose to Oklahoma?  WTF – is this 1988?  Lose to TCU?  Is “TCU” even a thing?!  These lows are rare, but they sting far more than the victories soothe, and they often last for the whole offseason.  “There’s no success like failure,” Bob Dylan sang, “and failure is no success at all.” 

Here is where my friendly advice comes to you, my fellow Michigan fans:  Do not be like a Kansas fan.  Think of every un-played game as a loss (it is, after all, not yet a win).  Every game and every play must be won anew, and there is no guarantee at all that Michigan will win any of them.  Remember that only five or six years ago Michigan was in the middle of a season that would see them lose to Harvard, Western Kentucky, and Central Michigan, all while winning only six Big Ten games.   Remember that every team is like a snail walking on the edge of a straight razor, its destruction possible in any number of ways and its success possible in only a small few.

See this man for more on snails on straight razors:

Further, and for the love of all things holy, do not ever expect your team to make it to the Final Four.  In 1996, Kansas fielded a 34-2 team that included Jacque Vaughn (2x consensus All-American), Raef Lafrentz (2x consensus All-American), and Paul Pierce (1x consensus All-American – and also Paul freakin’ Pierce).  They promptly lost in the Sweet Sixteen.  Kansas then went 35-4 the next year but lost in the second round to Rhode Island.  Rhode Island!  The tournament is chaos, and you cannot expect anything of chaos.  Not even a juggernaut can expect safe sailing. 

I imagine that someone will say, “We should expect nothing less than championships from Michigan, or we’ll never get them.”  To this I say that we as fans don’t have to have those expectations.  The players and coaches do, but we as fans are doing our part so long as we show up to all of the games and yell really loudly.   No one will know it if we roll with the punches and savor even victories over the Penn States of the world.

I am not trying to comment here on the status of the Michigan basketball program or make any predictions about it.  I am, though, encouraging Wolverine fans not to get caught up in Kansas Fan Syndrome, where success and the expectations that come with it lead to almost nothing but misery.  Relish every win or even good play if you can and consider any defeat to be only a return to the likely state of things.  Don’t suffer the pain of having your expectations torn down – instead have no expectations. 

I should say one more time that I offer this as friendly advice (and I also don’t mean to imply that I’m always able to follow my own advice).  And if you don’t find this helpful, well…that’s cool, man.   Here are some of Naismith’s fighting dachshunds for your troubles:

SPARTAN TRADITION

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

I'd like to pre-emptively apologize to all of the Sparty fans who'll be sure to write in and complain that this is not at all how a sofa looks after it's been torched on a porch.  I'm sorry-- I have no reference.  I've never burned a couch, sofa or loveseat.  Not even a futon.

I'd never make it as a Sparty... Thank you Jesus.

Friday Fun will involve me drawing something about Michigan athletics.  I'll do it on Friday, and it might even be Fun.

Some new formatting news for the New Year:

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In December, Brian was nice enough to come to DC and do a question an event for the Washington, DCMichiganalumni group.  There was a great turnout for the event.  Some of this is really out of date (recruiting, New Years bowls, Lewan leaving), but some of it is still relevant.

The Blog

In the off season, he is going to overhaul the blog and switch it to a magazine style layout so stories do not get lost as easily.  Will also have "drill-down pages" for some of the smaller sports, softball, lacrosse, so that those sports don't get lost on the board. 

Will eventually add a subscription model, the site will remain free, but subscription could offer no ads, a copy of Hail to the Victors, a tee shirt and discounts at Moe's.

Is going to do a basketball podcast in the winter, but probably not much more with the podcast.  For a recruiting podcast, listen to him with Sam Webb.

When asked how much time do you spend on UFR - he just said a  lot.

Football

Said 8-4 was fine, about what people expected, keeps the momentum going on for the program.  Pointed out that everyone has been worried about Denard getting hurt for 3 years and when it did, Gardnerwas able to step in.  Gardnerwas much better than the coaches thought he would be - and everyone else I guess. Brian had a great line about Denard, said he will not be the best Michiganplayer of all time, but he will be a lot of people's favorite Michiganplayer.

Next year, the defense, assuming they can replace his binky, Jordan Kovacs, will be in great shape.  Was impressed Quinton Washington, thinks Pipkins will back him up, although he will play a lot of downs.  Thoughts Pipkins was bad this year because he lacked technique, and pointed out he got pancaked by a running back, but Brian thinks he will be really good as an upperclassman, said his faith is in part from the Heininger Certainty Principle - Heininger went from a liability to a strength on the team because of the coaching and the technique he learned.  Brian believes that will be there as long as the defensive coaches are there.  Brian thinks that linebacker will be a strength with three quality players in the mix.  Likes Ross a lot once he bulks up.

The offense line will be the question mark next year having to start 3 freshman.  But was pleasantly surprised by the development of Michael Schofield who should not be a disaster in place of Lewan.  Said it says a lot about the end of Carr recruiting and Rodriguez recruiting.  Thinks once all of Hoke's recruits are in place, team will be in a position to compete for national titles.  The difference going forward is attrition will be for guys not getting playing time not simply leaving the team because they didn't get along with the coaches or coaching changes. Looking forward to freshman TE Jake Butt and RB DeVeon Smith (and Green if he commits).  Things the pro style offense could look like Stamfordor New England.  In the New Englandversion, Jake Butt and Devin Funchess play the roles of Gronk and Hernandez. Doesn't think WR will be that great.  Didn't know about the redshirt for Gardner, but thought the staff should try and redshirt Morris next year, but burn it before putting Bellomy back out there, unless up 50 points, then put in Kennedy.

Thinks there will be a ten year war with Ohio- and guessed that Michiganwould go 4-6 (including this year).  I asked if that meant Urban was the better coach and he said Ohiohas natural recruiting advantages and we would see.

Said we need to give the coaches (read Borges) two to three years to get their own players, switch to a pro-style offense before can accurately judge them.  The worst criticisms about Borges that we have are probably not valid yet.  Pointed out the most legitimate criticism was how badly the missed on Belomy and Gardner.  They see both guys in practice and thought that Belomy was a legitimate option and Gardnerwas not. Noted that kicking game (save for kickers) was really bad and that the coverage was not good.  Not sure why the staff has not adapted.  Also questioned why they are huddling so long, thinks you lose something by taking that long, getting set and allowing the defense to sub in.

Despite the above, the staff are really highly thought of, tight-knit group.  His sources said the staff was night and day compared to the coaches under Rodriguez.  Really professional group of guys, great teachers. 

Said the real battle will be when Mattison retires (he thought it might happen after a big ten title or Rose Bowl win), who will take the DC position.  Said it probably comes down to Curt Mallory, the DB coach and Jerry Montgomery, the DL coach.  Whoever is elevated, if they do a good job, would be the internal candidate to take over for Hoke in 10-12 years.  Said after Bielema left is even happier about Hoke.

Bielema led to a discussion about paying coaches, Brian said it came down to priorities, Arkansas and Wisconsin have almost the same athletic department budget, but Arkansas willing to pay more, especially for assistant coaches.  Wisconsin has the money chose not to.  Reflection on the SEC/Big Ten - Mississippi State has 8 teams, Ohio State has 40+ including a rifle club.  He also mocked the crew team having an indoor rowing facility, thought they should be outside.

Oh, Brian thinks the big ten will go winless in the bowl season.

Recruiting

Doesn't look good for Treadwell, but may be in good shape on Green, just because every other school fired their coach and Miamiis Miami.  Thinks they might be in good shape with Conley and Dawson. If Conley commits, he might end up at WR, especially if Mike McCray's teammate, Reon Dawson, signs with Michigan.  He hopes that the staff will pursue Eldridge Massington, who recently decommitted from USC. The staff wants to add a linebacker because one of the young linebackers might be leaving the program for medical reasons.

Basketball

Brian loves Stauskas - even more than appears on the blog.  He is also delighted that the NBA does not focus on a player with his skill set so he will be a "foundational" player for the next couple of years. Impressed with how much Hardaway changed his game during the off season.  Pointed out that people have really stepped up after Douglass and Novak (the aneurysm of leadership) left.  Specifically mentioned McGary as a leader of the freshman, didn't complain that he wasn't starting, went to the older players and asked what he should do.  Compared McGary to a puppy.

Brian is very excited about this team - final four caliber - but also the direction of the program. Sees the strength of the team on offense, hard to double team guys when there are so many offensive weapons.  Thinks the weakness is on defense, young team, not great shot-blockers, slow on rotations.  Going to lose Big Ten games, like to Indianabecause of defensive liabilities. 

Brian is very impressed with Beilein, including his ability to change up his style, moving from a 1-3-1to man, adapting to the team's strengths, like more alley-oops this year.  Says Beilein reminds him of a chemistry teacher - compared him to Walter White on the first episode of Breaking Bad without the meth or cancer.  Also very high on the assistants, including Bacari Alexander and LaVall Jordan.  Thinks that they could be head coaching material, but will probably stay to see how this group of players develop.

Odds and Ends

Brian was depressed and didn't want to talk about hockey, said real chance they will miss the NCAAs.  Not sure why, the team has talent.  Did say the goal keepers we not to blame as much you might think.  Was asked a question about Red if he was going to be pushed out, said that Red was the Hockey Bo, could stay as long as he wanted, but would step away if it came to that.

Brian is not a fan of expansion, and did a straw poll with 80% of the audience against it.  His ideal expansion plan would be to go to 20 and have everyone that joined in 1990 or later be in the other division and he could forget about them.  He also doesn't think the big ten people really have a clue, both for the future of television and how the conference should be aligned.  Brian thought the future was a la carte with only the true fans paying for football on cable, and grandma watching matlock on netflix.  If that is the case, Rutgers, even though they are in NYC, doesn't make a lot of sense, they do not have a passionate fan base.   Brian noted that Louisville is in a much smaller media market, but they are the only game in town and have a huge fan base.

For alignment, Brian pointed out there is a major problem with Michigan and Ohio in different divisions - if they are playing for the big ten title the week following the Game, do they play as hard, do they not show the whole bag of tricks, or rest starters?  Would be a de facto division championship if they were in the division.

Regarding Dave Brandon, he said that the Hoke hire was great, but everything else is reducing the program and the experience.  Said that he doesn't want to see a Lions game at Michigan Stadium, that Michigan is unique and Brandon is turning it into something generic. Would tell him not to make Michigan into pizza if he could talk to him.  He pointed out that we do not watch college sports because it is the best product that is the pros, but there is something special about college sports.

We spend so much time on college football recruiting.  Ace works on it full time, and the Mathlete uses it in his models.  If you don't believe how much MGoBlog readers care, check out the comments on Ace's post today.

“THEY CAME TO PLAY: A GEOGRAPHIC SURVERY OF WOLVERINE FOOTBALL FRESHMEN”

(Thanks should go to Yo_Blue for catching the error in the title - now corrected. My fail there.)

Since 1960, there have been 1,695 individuals who began their first year at the University of Michigan as a student and as a freshman listed on the football roster. They may not have necessarily seen action, and some of them did not stay the whole time, but they came here first – they came to play for the Wolverines.

One thing I will note now is that, going back as far as I wanted, I decided to simply use freshmen on the roster and not break it down between walk-on, scholarship athlete and someone who simply survived tryouts, if in fact those were available in a given year. It would be interesting, however, to do a narrower version of this survey and look at scholarship targets specifically, in part because you might see how rule changes through the years affected where we went to recruit players.

It will come as no surprise to anyone that the largest contingent of this select group came from the state of Michigan. To be exact, 714 of them called Michigan their home when they came to campus, and indeed, some of them probably could have walked from their parents’ house to the stadium, for there are several from Ann Arbor.

The second biggest contributor of freshmen to the Wolverines also will not shock anyone, and that is our neighbor to the south and slightly east – Ohio. Since 1960, the state of Ohio has sent 340 freshmen in our direction. Rounding out the top five, you also have Illinois (158), Pennsylvania (63) and Florida (56). As you will see later, however, the distribution has changed significantly from decade to decade, and only recently has the state of Michigan climbed back into a commanding spot at the top.

Below those, you will find Indiana, Texas and California, then a steady progression towards the seven states that, in the studied period, sent us a single freshman. There are even a few states as exotic as Idaho and Vermont that haven’t sent us a single player in all that time, if ever. Perhaps we should consider scouting Vermont, right? *ducks*

Another interesting trend that appears as you look at the tables by decade is the expansion of our recruiting footprint and reach. In the 1960s, Michigan’s freshmen can from 20 states and Canada, whereas the footprint in the last decade or so spans 31 states as well as Canada. I created a table where you can sort of see the shift as time passes as well.

DATA:

In this first series of tables and graphs, you will find the overall number of freshmen by state in both bar graph and pie chart form, as well as a table with overall percentages and a table which shows the pattern by location as well as by decade.

The 1960s - BAR GRAPH AND TABLE

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The 1970s - BAR GRAPH AND TABLE

The 1980s - BAR GRAPH AND TABLE

The 1990s - BAR GRAPH AND TABLE

2000-PRESENT - BAR GRAPH AND TABLE

EXTREMELY BRIEF DISCUSSION:

Even looking at this in a broad view, you can observe shifts and see “gates” open and close, possibly do the influence of other conferences and schools gaining prominence through the years, at least in their home regions. It is rather my hope to leave this one a bit open-ended so people can make their own observations here.

OBLIGATORY:

I, like some other folks out there, took a bit of umbrage with Urban’s open criticism of the other B1G coaches for failing (at least in his eyes) in their recruiting because the SEC has almost all its schools in the Top 25 and apparently that is the only thing that matters.  So I wondered what a closer examination of the results might say about how the B1G did comparatively to other conferences when considering more than simply the total score that a site gives based on number of recruits and their number of stars.  I wanted to look at where the recruits come from and how much of an advantage certain schools may have because the easiest hunting is always in your back yard. 

For a bit of background, I went to Scout and compiled the 2013 recruits (home state and Scout ranking) who committed to schools in the ACC, B1G, Big East, Big XII, Independents (BYU and ND), PAC12 and SEC.  As it turns out, this was a major pain in the butt.  I was planning to include the other 3 services in this my first foray into sports “analysis”, but based on the amount of time Scout took and considering I wanted to at least get something out in a week, that was not going to happen with completing time demands from a job and girlfriend.  Anyway, now that I have my excuses out of the way, down to it!

In addition to the location and ranking of recruits, I divided the US into conference footprints to get an idea of where the talent lies.

Chart?  Chart. (I always wanted to say that!)

As you can see, there is a hefty amount of talent in the SEC with over 1/3 of the 5*s coming from those states (BTW, I considered Texas as Big XII and Georgia/South Carolina as SEC although the SC designation could arguably be considered ACC country).  Here is the same chart with percentages which expresses the advantage more plainly. 

Well that just confirms the obvious.  Next I looked at how the respective conferences performed in the final tally with recruit signings.

As you can see the ACC…not so good and well Big East, but talk about stating the obvious.  This chart shows that the ACC only landed 7% of the 5*s in this class (according to Scout) whereas they had 14% of the 5*s in their conference footprint.  The other conferences pretty much performed close to where they should, save the Big XII 5*s .  But this still doesn’t tell the whole story since you can’t see if all the ACC’s 5* recruits came from the ACC footprint. 

Next I looked at how well conferences held on to home grown talent, let’s call it “retention”.  I’ll use the ACC as an example since this table is repeated for each major conference.

As you can see, of the 6 5*s in the ACC footprint (see first chart), only 1 signed with an ACC school (17%).  To prevent chart overload (is there such a thing?) I consolidated all the conferences results into one chart which is below.

I was a little surprised that the PAC12 did REALLY well in retaining their talent with the SEC doing the next best.  So looks like Urbs might be right that the recruiting didn’t go so well for the conference and the B1G needs to step up the effort.  But there is another side to this coin and it is something I called “poaching”. 

I defined poaching as a recruit who commits to a school outside of his hometown’s conference footprint (ex. Green from ACC land going to Michigan).  Again, I’ll use the ACC as an example. 

ACC schools inked 2 5*s from outside of their footprint from an available pool of 36 5*s which is 6%.  Again, the consolidated chart.

This time the SEC is top dog but the B1G did a pretty good job of poaching talent from other areas compared to the other conferences.  Interesting that the PAC12 is very strong at retention but not so good at poaching, but if you don’t need to hunt in your neighbor’s yard, why bother?  

I am left with a couple take aways from this.  First, the SEC has an unparalleled advantage when it comes to quantity and quality of recruits.  Second, the PAC12 is awesome at keeping talent who are in their footprint.  Those two factors combined create an uphill battle for the other conferences that are not flush with recruiting riches.  Although there is some truth to Urb’s statement, I disagree with the rather dire assessment of the B1G’s recruiting performance.  The retention of talent could certainly increase which should be a focus (Hoke’s emphasis), but the schools aren’t slouches when competing for guys who are not in the B1G footprint and in fact are one of the better conferences at doing so.

For even more detail, I examined the schools in the B1G because I wanted to see how significant the Big 2 - Little 10 (soon to be 12) is developing in the recruiting realm but I don’t think anyone will be surprised with those results.  However, this post is already too long and that could give me a chance to make follow up post if folks felt this was worthwhile.