Diaries

I'm not going to lead with a story this week. No trip down nostalgia lane, no personal anecdotes, no waxing sentimental. Instead I'm going to let the Michigan players speak for themselves via what they tweeted Saturday night after sweeping Western Michigan out of the CCHA playoffs.

If you haven't already embraced this team I'd recommend doing so right about now.

Friday, March 15, 2013- Game 1

 

1st Period

 

08:43 Michigan 1 Western Michigan 0: Phil Di Giuseppe (9) from Kevin Lynch (14) & Brennan Serville (1)

PDG and Lynch work a give-and-go in the neutral zone, with Lynch passing to PDG and then PDG going back to Lynch. Note that this happens because Lynch has a step on his defender, creating a 2-on-1 odd-man rush for UM.

Lynch's defender manages to slide over and tries to get his stick in the passing lane, which is exactly what the other defenseman is doing. Lynch threads the needle between the two sticks and puts the puck on PDG's stick. Take a look at Slubowski here; he's square to Lynch, but he's going to have to slide a long way laterally to get square with PDG.

PDG roofs a shot over Slubowski's shoulder. The only reason that the shot is available (and that he doesn't have to try and pick a corner) is that Slubowski seemed to commit to Lynch and, as I mentioned above, had to move laterally to recover. This requires hitting the ice, which opens up the top portion of the net.

 

18:00 Michigan 2 Western Michigan 0: Justin Selman (4) from Mac Bennett (12)

Seth wrote in this week's "Dear Diary..." post that he noticed an increase in puck movement during the Northern series. If that was the theme last weekend, then what's the theme this weekend? Odd-man rushes! Count 'em up; three guys behind the play and one scrambling and praying to all that's holy to try and get back.

Selman has two options; he can shoot it or he can pass to Bennett. The positioning of the defenseman, coupled with the fact that he's already on his knee, makes both options equally viable for Selman. He chooses to shoot, but his shot is stopped...

...but not without a sugary sweet rebound popping out in front. All Selman has to do is keep skating (which duh, he did) and the puck is his to backhand over the sprawled Slubowski.

 

2nd Period

 

03:30 Michigan 2 Western Michigan 1: Chase Balisy (11) from Dane Walters (13) & Garrett Haar (5)

Michigan has a chance to clear but can't, as DeBlois is unable to hang on to the puck. Haar holds it in at the blueline for Western and immediately sends a pass to Walters in the faceoff circle. Check out the uneven distribution of Michigan defenders and the player who's now all alone behind the Michigan defense, Bailsy (circled above).

Walters fires a pass to Bailsy. Again, all of Michigan's defenders are clumped together. Walters doesn't even have to think here; Bailsy's that open.

Bailsy has to settle the puck before loading his shot, and even then he doesn't seem to get much on it. The puck flutters over Racine and in. Racine got hung out to dry but he also had a second to prepare for the shot. I wouldn't blame solely him, but I am a little surprised he didn't stop this one.

 

04:32 Michigan 2 Western Michigan 2: Colton Hargrove (8) from Ben Warda (9) 

He's off camera now, but Bennett starts the play with an outlet pass up the boards to Treais. 

Just as the puck's about to arrive a Western defender closes on Treais and it bounces off of him and towards center ice. The puck takes another bounce, this time off of Moffatt's stick and back towards the Michigan blueline. Moffat turns and tries to chase it down.

Moffatt never recovers the puck, but Western's Colton Hargrove does. He snipes one past Racine and it looks like the floodgates might oh-so-familiarly open.

 

07:13 Michigan 3 Western Michigan 2: Jacob Trouba (11) from Alex Guptill (18) & Mac Bennett (13)

If there was any doubt about whether he had earned the JMFT moniker that should be put to rest after this play. Trouba splits two defenders to continue his own rush through the neutral zone.

Trouba carries the puck into the offensive zone and looks like he's about to unleash one of his signature spark-meets-gunpowder slapshots.

But then he doesn't. No, Trouba instead slows his slapshot down and wrists one past Slubowski. The slowing of the shot freezes Slubowski and the defenseman, hence the statuesque squares around them in the above screencap. He's not just JMFT, he's JmfT. More subtle, yet equally effective

 

10:19 Michigan 3 Western Michigan 3: Josh Pitt (3) from Kenney Morrison (13) & Colton Hargrove (2)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this one because it's about as close to an unpreventable goal as you're going to get in a playoff series. Western takes a shot from the blueline that hits two of their players on the way to the net, one of whom is screening Racine.

 

3rd Period

 

09:15 Michigan 4 Western Michigan 3: PPG Jacob Trouba (12) from A.J. Treais (16) & Alex Guptill (19) 

Treais has the puck at the point and passes to Trouba. This draws one of the penalty-killers closer to the blueline and essneitally gets two guys bunched together, as they're now lined up with each other as opposed to covering the top two corners of the PK box.

Trouba slides across the blueline and Treais moves behind him. This causes the penalty-killers to flinch, with the low man especially confused about who to cover. He starts to skate towards Treais while the high man moves towards Trouba.

The circled Western player then decides to call Treais as his man, leaving the low man to try and cover the open ice between himself and Trouba. There's no way he can recover and Trouba takes full advantage, actually unleashing the whole spark-meets-gunpowder slapshot this time and converting.

Let's troll

 

Saturday, March 16, 2013- Game 2

 

I used the CCHA's highlight video for the screencaps but discovered after writing everything that Center Ice posted a better quality video. Check it out, especially to watch Guptill chirp angry-Western-guy at the end.

 

1st Period

 

01:08 Michigan 1 Western Michigan 0: Kevin Lynch (10) from Lee Moffie (9) & Jon Merrill (7)

Moffie has the puck in the defensive zone and sees a gap up the middle of the ice that he can launch a pass through to start the breakout.

Outlet passes don't get much better than this one, as Moffie stretches the ice and puts the puck perfectly on the tape of Kevin Lynch's stick.

Lynch shoots almost immediately and just straight up beats Slubowski to put Michigan on the board first.

 

16:36 Michigan 1 Western Michigan 1: Garrett Haar (4) from Nolan LaPorte (3) & Josh Pitt (6)

Western rims the puck around the boards to the blueline. The Michigan defender who's supposed to be covering that area of the ice (circled above) runs into a Western player, which frees Haar to carry the puck across the blueline undefended.

Haar is going to have a shot available to him because Selman is stuck trying to make a choice; he has to guess whether Haar will pass to Brown or whether he will take the shot himself. By the time Selman can read the play Haar's ready to shoot, and he uses a snapshot to get the puck through quicker. If he winds up for a slapshot Selman would likely be able to move up and cover.

Racine has four guys in front of him and doesn't have much of a chance to stop this one. The disclaimer that goes with this goal, however, is that there's only one camera angle of it. It looks to me like the four guys are in Racine's line of sight and impacting his ability to track the puck, but that may not necessarily be the case.

 

2nd Period

 

02:53 Michigan 2 Western Michigan 1: Andrew Sinelli (3) from A.J. Treais (17) & Luke Moffatt (11)

Treais beats his defender and is able to get a shot on net that a sliding Slubowski stops (aliteration FTW). 

Slubowski's best Dominik Hasek impression causes him to send the puck itno the corner, where Treais digs it out and centers it.

Is it Slubowski or Hasek? I can't even tell!

Sinelli shoots through the defender's legs and hits the half-open net behind him.

 

10:09 Michigan 3 Western Michigan 1: PPG Alex Guptill (13) from Andrew Copp (10) & Luke Moffatt (12)

Moffatt carries the puck down low with speed and sees Copp on the other side of the net. There's a defender draped all over him and another in the slot, so he holds the puck for an extra second before trying to center it. By now Copp has crashed the net and the puck never gets to him, instead getting lost in a scramble in front of the net.

It's hard to tell whether Slubowski got a piece of the puck or whether this is the work of someone else, but somehow the puck slides backwards into the high slot. Guptill is in perfect position to pick it up 

Guptill gathers the puck and makes a perfect read. The defeneseman in front of the net dives to stop what he assumes will be a backhanded shot so Guptill spins. This opens up a scoring chance, because Slubowski is already on the ice and now so too is the defenseman in front of the net. Guptill roofs a shot over the mass carnage in front and scores.

 

10:58 Michigan 4 Western Michigan 1: Derek DeBlois (10) from Phil Di Giuseppe (19)

PDG carries the puck into the offensive zone with a ton of speed, but he gets penned in by thee Western defenders.

OR DOES HE?. He shows flashes of Datsyuk as he slides the puck under the defeder's stick and picks it up on the backhand on the other side. PDG throws the puck on net and Slubowski kinda stops it, but also causes it to flutter through the air.

The puck lands in the crease and just happens to land directly in front of a Western defender. Doesn't matter though, because DeBlois charges hard and wins the game of whack-a-puck.

 

19:42 Michigan 5 Western Michigan 1: Alex Guptill (14) from Luke Moffatt (13) & A.J. Treais (18)

Moffatt looks like God's gift to stickhandling on this play. He stops on a dime and starts to turn his body as if he's going to spin and carry the puck down the boards. This freezes one defender and draws another over.

He instead pulls the puck back across his body to the forehand and passes to Guptill, who's wide open and has just one defender to beat.

Guptill skates across the crease and nets his second of the night. Nail, meet coffin. Broom, meet Bronco.

 

H/T to the Daily's Zach Helfand and Paul Sherman for the Trouba photo

So now that the brackets are out and Michigan has drawn a 4 seed in the South Region, I thought I'd take a look at how 4 seeds have fared in tournaments past, going back to when the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.  Surprisingly, Googling "Historical Performance of Seeds in NCAA Tournament" yields a plethora of data that just begs to be analyzed statistically and have conclusions drawn over which one can agonize.  I wish the news were better.

The News Is Bad?  How Bad?

In the 28 years since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, squads seeded fourth have won grand total of 167 games for a per tournament average of 5.96 wins, give or take 2.06 wins.  Essentially this falls in line with confirming chalk.  If you're a 4 seed, you're a great bet to win your first game, a 50/50ish bet to win your 2nd, and then you're probably ewww.  This probably doesn't come as a surprise, since if you're a 4 seed coming out of the first weekend, you're probably facing the 1 seed, and beating a one seed is hard.

So It's Hopeless Then?

Well no, it's not hopeless.  Being a 4 seed is definately better than being a 5 or higher;  as the numbers show that fortunes for teams not seeded in the Top 16 of the tourney fall precipitiously.  For all the romance that media-types assign to "Cinderellas" in the tounament; runs like George Mason or Villanova are very much the exception. 

Since 1985, 11 four seeds have advanced to the Final Four in 10 separate NCAA Tournaments (The 1990 Tournament saw 4 seeds Georgia Tech and Arkansas both advance to the Final Four).  Of those 11 teams that managed to make it the Final Four, 2 of them advanced to the Finals (Syracuse 1996, Arizona 1997), with only Lute Olsen's 1997 Arizona Wildcats having the stuff to find themselves hoisting the championship trophy.

The only precedent we have to lean on, but there is a precedent

Only One Champion In 28 Seasons?  That Sounds Pretty Hopeless.

Well, it does occur to me that this only has any real meaning if there is something to compare it against, say the 1 - 3 seeds.  This sounds like a perfect opportunity for a...

Chart?  Chart

Lest we forget, one of those four 3 seeds is 1989 Michigan, woo!

So yeah, big surprise here.  One and two seeds make up 2/3rds of all the teams that have appeared in the Final Four and have won 75% of all the titles since 1985.  This can mean one of two things.  One, that the Selection Committee is very good at seeding teams based on their relative strength or two, the path of the one and two seeds is conducive for advancing.  Personally, I tend to think it's more Door #2 than Door #1.  The real takeaway from this with regards to Michigan 2013 is that the distinction between a 3 and 4 seed seems to be pretty small.

[EDIT:  I would like to point out the anomaly that while 2 seeds appear in the Final Four about half the rate of 1 seeds and twice the rate of 3 and 4 seeds, they only come away with a quarter of the titles, a disproportionately low number.  Y U no pull your weight in the Finals two seeds?]

So What Does This All Mean For Our Guys?

Well, I'd rather see us as a 3 seed personally, and was a bit miffed to find us slide from a predicted 2 seed to a 4 based upon one loss to Wisconsin (F#*k, Wisconsin), but then I think the Selection Committee has undervalued the competitiveness of the B1G in general with the brackets.  I am looking forward to seeing  Michigan play some non-Big Ten competition.  I think we'll be pleasantly surprised at how good we suddenly look again, assuming the guys haven't completely lost their confidence.

Still, Michigan has it's work cut out for it as the four seeds have historically had tough sledding in the NCAA Tournament.  I do take some comfort in the words of my old Econ professor who liked to remind his class that, "past performance is no guarantee of future earnings".  Here's to a deep, entertaining, and trend-bucking tournament run from the 2013 Wolverines.  Go Blue!

Short post because I'm exhausted.  I like the matchup.  Enjoy the desktop. GO BLUE!

Desktop (16:9)

- JonValk

For those of you that missed it...
DESMOND BLOCKHAM WAS IN AN ACCIDENT YESTERDAY
that may or may not have involved, well, a Twosie.  A tandem bicycle.
Be sure to read yesterday's strip in the link above before moving on to...

THE DIAGNOSIS

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Yes, that's right, next week the Blockhams will go to the practice field.
And it will not be pretty.  You have been warned.

Friday Fun will highlight today's Senior Pro Day.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every week here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

Follow THE BLOCKHAMS™ on Twitter at @theblockhams, and don't forget to
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[Previous MGoHistory: 1986, 1971, & 1997] 

We now find ourselves on a strange planet, standing before a large, rocky arch that emits an eerie glow.  Inside the arch scenes flash in rapid succession.  “What the hell is that?”, one of us asks.  Surprisingly the arch responds in a booming voice, “I am the Guardian of Forever!  I can be your guide to any time and place you desire!  Heed the instructions of the man next to you.”  We turn to find a tall, lithe man, with pointed ears dressed in a tight blue shirt staring impassively at a small black box that hums.  “When I tell you”, the strange man says, “step through the portal.”  We turn to each other and shrug.  His shirt isn’t red, so we must be in good hands.  “Go now!” he instructs.  We leap and hurl ourselves through time and space to find ourselves arriving in….1989.

The end of the 80’s kicks off with the end of the Reagan era, sort of.  Reagan’s former Vice President, George HW Bush is inaugurated in January, becoming the 41^stPresident of the United States.  The Bush Administration starts off on a positive note when, in February, the Soviets withdraw the last of their troops from Afghanistan, ending their 9 year occupation.  Things take a turn for the negative in March as Americans discover the inconvenient truth that drunk tanker captain, plus broken navigation system, equals bad; resulting in the Exxon Valdex running aground and spills hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil into Prince William Sound off the coast of Alaska.  By spring, world attention turns to China as student protesters march on in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square demanding democratic reforms of China’s communist regime.  The demonstration ends violently in early June as China’s hardliners deploy the military to disperse the protesters, resulting in thousands of injuries and deaths.  Meanwhile throughout the year, the Iron Curtain starts to crumble as Soviet-supported regimes across Eastern Europe are deposed in numerous free elections.  This wave of democracy propagates with astonishing speed and incredibly culminates, in late autumn, with the fall of Berlin Wall, symbolically ending the Cold War.

In other news, the American space probe, Voyager 2, makes the final planetary rendezvous of its mission when it flies by Neptune.  Author Salman Rushdie discovers that it’s a bad idea to piss off Iranian clerics after Ayatollah Khomeini issues a fatwa for the publication of “The Satanic Verses”, forcing Rushdie to go into hiding for several years.  Later, he’ll be compensated for this inconvenience by getting to sleep with Padma Lakshmi.  Lastly, an anonymous computer scientist at CERN, Timothy Berners-Lee, invents a revolutionary internet-based information management system that he calls the World Wide Web.  The Web makes the internet accessible to virtually every person on the planet, revolutionizing the way humans communicate and eventually leading to mankind’s greatest achievement; blogs.

In sports, iconic players dominate the championship scenes of several leagues.  Joe Montana wins the 3^rdof his 4 Super Bowls by leading the San Francisco 49ers over the Cincinnati Bengals, 20-16, in Super Bowl XXIII, with the great Jerry Rice earning MVP honors.  The Detroit Pistons “Bad Boys”, lead by Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas, end years of frustration against the Celtics and Lakers, by besting the LA Lakers in 4 games to finally win the franchise’s first NBA championship.  In golf, British legend Nick Faldo wins his first of 3 Masters titles by defeating American Scott Hoch.  German tennis players dominate the pro circuit with Boris Becker being named the ATP Player of the Year after winning Wimbledon and the US Open.  Meanwhile, on the womens side, Steffi Graf continues her rise to making a claim as the greatest female player of all time by following up her 1988 Grand Slam with victories in 3 of the 4 majors, coming in as a runner-up only in the French Open.  In mid-October, the “Bay” Series between the Oakland A’s and San Francisco Giants is interrupted 30 minutes before Game 3 by the Loma Prieta earthquake.  The Series is delayed 10 days before Oakland would complete a four game sweep of the Giants.

On the big screen, people flock to see Harrison Ford and Sean Connery quest for the Holy Grail in “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade”.  “Batman” is released and reinvigorates the superhero movie genre, which continues to thrive to this day.  Kevin Costner and Michigan Alum James Earl Jones star in “Field of Dreams”, which teaches us that “If you build it, he will come”.  And Morgan Freeman achieves mainstream stardom in the Oscar-winning “Driving Miss Daisy”. 

Television sees the premier of several programs that will be archetypes of the 90’s such as “Seinfeld”, “The Simpsons”, and “The Arsenio Hall Show”.  We also see the premier of such Saturday morning cult favorites “Saved By The Bell” and “American Gladiators”.  The year sees the departure of mainstay programming that had endured for decades prior.  “American Bandstand” and the original “Doctor Who” air for the final time.  TV in the 80's gets a symbolic farewell when “Miami Vice” airs for the last time.  In addition to TV programming, people amuse themselves with next generation video game consoles such as Sega Genesis and Ninetendo comes out with the GameBoy.

In other entertainment, more and more of America’s youth are listening to rap and hip hop.  Acts such as Public Enemy and “Fear of a Black Planet”, and N.W.A with their album “Straight Outta Compton” gain mainstream acceptance.  Former Michigan student Madonna continues to be pops biggest draw with her hit “Like A Prayer”, Poison releases the definitive hair metal power ballad, “Every Rose Has It’s Thorn”, and boy band pioneers New Kids on the Block strike it big with their album, “Hangin’ Tough”.

In Michigan football, Bo Schembechler’s 21^stMichigan team opens the 1989 season with a #1 vs #2 showdown against Notre Dame in Ann Arbor.  On a dreary, rainy September day, Michigan outplays the defending National Champions but the Irish still prevail 24-19 on the strength of two Raghib Ismail kickoff returns; leaving fans to this day wondering, “Why the {BLEEP} did we kick to Rocket Ismail again?!!”  Michigan would go on to win the remainder of their games that season, including a 28-18 victory over Ohio that clinched the outright Big 10 title and Michigan’s 10^thRose Bowl berth under Bo.  The ’89 Wolverines featured All-American safety Tripp Welborne on defense.  The offense was lead by quarterback Michael Taylor along with what is arguably the best backfield in Michigan history in tailbacks Tony Boles and Leroy Hoard and fullback Jarrod Bunch.

The Ohio victory and conference championship proves bittersweet when fans and alumni are shocked in mid-December with Coach Schembechler announcing that the 1990 Rose Bowl would be his last game as head coach.  Stating that “Giving up my football team is the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do”, a teary-eyed Schembechler names Assistant Coach Gary Moeller his successor.  Schembechler’s coaching career ends on a sour, but not unfamiliar, note when the #3 ranked Wolverines are defeated by the #12 ranked USC Trojans 17-10 in the Rose Bowl.  Bo’s last team finishes 10-2 and ranked 7^th.  After 21 years as Michigan’s head coach, Bo leaves as the winningest coach in program history with a record of 194-48-5, accruing 13 Big 10 titles, 2 Rose Bowl titles, and 10 Rose Bowl appearances, and 17 bowl appearances overall.

While one coaching dynasty was coming to an end in 1989, another was gaining steam.  The 1988-89 Wolverine Hockey team posted their second straight winning season under Coach Red Berenson.  The team, lead by All-American defenseman Myles O’Connor, finished the season 22-15-4 overall and 17-11-4 (4^thplace) in the CCHA.  The Wolverines also picked up the first of 13 Great Lakes Invitational titles under Berenson, defeating the Fighting Sioux of North Dakota.  While Berenson's program was still two seasons away from returning to NCAA Tournament play, Red makes one of Michigan hockeys most enduring contributions by introducing the winged helmet as part of the team's uniform on the eve of the CCHA playoffs, a design cue that seems impossible for hockey to go without today.

The 1988-89 Michigan basketball team starts the season expecting to compete for the Big 10 conference championship.  Lead by Coach Bill Frieder, the Wolverines feature a talented roster that includes seniors Glen Rice, Mark Hughes, and Mike Griffin, as well juniors Loy Vaught, Rumeal Robinson, Terry Mills, and Sean Higgins.  The Wolverines have a solid but underwhelming season finishing 24-7 and 12-6 in conference, 3^rdbehind Indiana and Illinois and ranked 10^thin the polls.  Entering the tournament, Michigan is a 3 seed in the Southeast Region and expectations are modest. 

Michigan’s chances in the tournament seemingly take a turn for the worse when, days before the opening round, Coach Frieder is dismissed by Michigan Athletic Director Bo Schembechler.  Upon learning that Frieder has accepted the job at Arizona State, Schembechler canonically declares, “A Michigan Man will coach Michigan” and installs Steve Fischer as interim coach.  Inspired by fiery pep talks from Schembechler and record setting scoring by Rice, Michigan wins games against Xavier, South Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia to earn a spot in the Final Four.  In the semi-final Michigan upsets 1 seed Illinois 83-81, forever earning the ire of the Illini and cementing Michigan as Illinois’ main rival, unbeknownst to most Michigan fans.  In the finals, Michigan battles Seton Hall to an 80-79 overtime win, the final margin being provided by two free throws from Robinson with just seconds to play, earning Michigan its first National Championship ever in basketball and Glen Rice is named the tournament Most Outstanding Player.

The 1989 Michigan basketball team was considered to be a group of talented underachievers heading into the NCAA Tournament, only to finally have all the pieces fall into place and go on an epic tournament run.  Many comparisons have been made between this years squad and that historic bunch.  With the conference championship just slipping through our grasp and our post-season journey about to begin, let us hope that the Wolverines of 2013 find some of the magic that struck in 1989.  Go Blue.

A cursory glance doesn't reveal many similarities between Michigan basketball and Michigan hockey these days. After all, one team took the court this weekend with a share of the B1G title on the line and fans that lined up something like 22 hours before tip-off. The other team took the ice this weekend with no title on the line and not even a live televised feed of their games. 

Take a closer look, though, and some broad similarities appear. Basketball and hockey are both games of runs. It's just the way the game goes when there are no pre-established offensive and defensive turns. You hit and you'll get hit back. You exert pressure and that pressure will eventually be exerted on you. Michigan basketball ended on the wrong side of a run, suffering a knockout punch that was one part bad luck and two parts missed opportunity. Michgan hockey, on the other hand, survived the inevitable pressure Northern Michign exerted after Michigan took a 3-0 lead.  

A 3-0 first period lead wasn't something the Wolverines could rest on. Too many times this season they've taken an early lead only to be swept away by the undertow of another team's run, late goals and late pressure that were too much to overcome. With their postseason hanging in the balance Michigan responded on Friday, doing what was sufficient and holding serve in the third period to weather the storm and in the process made that dim glimmer of hope we hold that Michigan can extend its NCAA tournament streak to 23 consecutive seasons a little brighter.

1st Period

I'll try to get a GBGA of Saturday's game up....sometime. Not sure when, but I'm working on it. Look forward to more pictures, more laughs, and most importantly moooooooooore goals.

(Burke photo cred: Julian Gonzalez, Detroit Free Press)