spoiler alert: i linked this
This week's miniprogram. as always, let me know if any questions or comments. only changes this week were on the O-Line with the Bryant-Glasgow-Miller switch, not sure who to plug in at second LG. hopefully it won't matter.
Ok, ladies and gents, I'm back at it for B1G season. Hopefully, I'll be able to spend some more quality time working on these now that I have multiple days off in the coming week. In the meantime, I've put together a modest wallpaper for this week's historic rivalry (yes, we know what those are, ND).
I have two versions of this wallpaper, so I hope you at least like ONE of them. I was a little surprised when I looked at how horrendously one-sided this rivalry has been. I read a hilarious article posted before last years game by a very realistic Minnesota beat writer who essentially said it's time for the rivalry to end - because it's not really a rivalry if only one side wins. I know we're all in that place where we want TomVH to hold us while we get nervous about opponents that normally see three levels of the depth chart, but seriously, Nick Sheridan beat Minnesota - at Minnesota. Nick "I am the black death of Michigan football" Sheridan. Let that sink in. Now remember that Hoke has yet to lose at home, and that Iowa (yes, the same Iowa team we destroyed last year) just smacked this Minnesota team around. Somehow, I don't feel so nervous anymore. Because, really, is there any way this team is WORSE than the team from <404: "file not found">? Yeah, I don't think so.
So there it is. THE_KNOWLEDGE has imparted his goodness and mercy upon us and let us know ahead of time that we're going to win, so let's just enjoy the game and these "lovely" wallpapers.
Desktop (16:9) 1920x1080
Desktop - Sheridan Edition (16:9) 1920x1080
Mobile (iPhone 5) 640x1136
Enjoy and GO BLUE!
Seth/Jared under the (apparently) bright lights.
Smiles because we thought the OL problems were just Nix & Tuitt
Big Ten road games start next week. Most of the MGoBlog staff (Brian, me, Ace, Heiko, the photographers) will all be at Penn State and most of us will be going to Northwestern as well.
Making a lot of this travel possible this year has been support from MGoBlog sponsor and supporter Sports Power Weekends. Jared has put on successful trips for Michigan fans for the Notre Dame and UConn games already this season, and will be bringing a group of 150+ alums from NYC and DC to Penn State next week (the hotel rooms are sold out). While spots remain, now is the time to lock in your trip for Nebraska and Ohio State in Ann Arbor, as well as Northwestern and Iowa on the road!
This company comes through, as attested in the diary from from HAIL 2 VICTORS after he did the Notre Dame weekend.
Jared handles the hotels, gets you awesome seats, and plans extra events around each game. Check them out, and book your trip.
If you're already on his PSU or Northwestern trips, we'll see you there!
Four Plays – UM vs. Minnesota 2013
This series examines the probable individual matchups Michigan expects to face against particular 2013 opponents on one of Michigan’s key running plays and one of its key passing plays, as well as defensively against a couple of the opponent’s key plays (assuming first-sting personnel in a base defensive alignment). This is the third installment of the series; previous: Notre Dame and Connecticut.
Michigan opens Big Ten action at home this season against a Jerry Kill’s Gophers, who didn't exactly face a murderer’s row in their non-conference schedule but got off to a 4-0 start nonetheless—even despite an injury that deprived Minnesota of their starting QB for two games. [Edit: The Gophers are now 4-1, having lost 3-7 yesterday to Iowa. In the game, Minnesota gained only 30 yards rushing and gave up 147 yards rishing to Mark Weisman]. Overall, the Gophers looked well-coached and unlikely to beat themselves, but with the talent differential and Michigan needing to make a statement, this is not a game that should be close.
When Michigan has the ball…
The slant is a relatively easy throw that gets the ball to a receiver with a chance to gain yards after the catch. In west coast offenses, pairing multiple slants with a flat route underneath stretches a defense horizontally, while motion is used to help the QB diagnose the defense before the snap.
When the H-back motions across the formation before the snap, the QB will watch to see if a defender follows him. If so, then the defense must be playing man coverage—meaning the X receiver is one-on-one with the CB. If no defender follows the H-back, then the defense is in zone. The H-back (running the flat route) and the Y receiver (running a slant) will flood the right flat; the QB will read the flat defender (against cover 3, this is usually the box safety) and throw to whichever receiver the flat defender leaves open.
LT – Taylor Lewan: pass protect vs. WDE Theiren Cockran
LG – Graham Glasgow: pass protect vs. DT Cameron Botticelli
C – Jack Miller: pass protect vs. DT Ra’Shede Hageman
RG – Kyle Kalis: pass protect vs. DT Ra’Shede Hageman
RT – Michael Schofield: pass protect vs. SDE Michael Amaefula
TE – Devin Funchess: motion across formation, run flat route (covered by SS Cedric Thompson)
SL – Drew Dileo: run slant (2) route (covered by NB Brock Vereen)
SE – Jeremy Gallon: run slant route route (covered by CB Derrick Wells)
FL –Jehu Chesson: run slant route (covered by SS Cedric Thompson)
TB – Fitzgerald Toussaint: pass protect vs. SDE Michael Amaefula
QB – Devin Gardner: pre-snap, motion H-back across formation, recognize zone coverage underneath; receive snap, read flat defender (SS); if flat defender follows Chesson, set feet and throw flat route to Funchess, throw slant to Chesson if flat defender comes up to play Funchess.
Three weeks ago I wouldn’t have hesitated to declare the advantage for Michigan on this play, with Devin Gardner throwing to a solid group of receivers against Minnesota’s underwhelming defense. But Gardner’s been inconsistent over the past couple weeks, due in no small part to poor pass protection on the interior—and now Michigan has to face arguably the best DT in college football. That would be Ra’Shede Hageman, Minnesota’s senior DT who entered the season on most first-team All-B1G lists and boasts a first-round NFL draft grade. To have success against him, the Michigan line that handled Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt will have to show up against the Gophers. Another performance like the one we saw in Hartford could spell a long day for Michigan’s offense.
[After the JUMP: it's a trap!]
Even with all the turnovers, Michigan is ranked #25 in scoring offense and #38 in scoring defense. These rankings give U-M better than an 80% probability of finishing the year 9-3 or better. If Michigan can fix the turnover problems, this year should be exceptional (10-2 or better). If not, this year could be a repeat of last year (8-4) ugh. [Teams with a – 0.5 TOM/Game or worse have just an 11% probability of finishing the year with and 8-4 record or better.]
We Wants It . . . We Needs It . . . . Must Have The Precious!: Each football game in a season is precious. Almost every year, the outcome of a single game determines which teams play for conference championships and which teams play for the MNC. The difference between success and failure is razor thin and even one performance based turnover in a season can be what controls your fate. Every coach knows this, every player knows this, and every fan knows this. That is why turnover analysis is so important.
Discussions about whether turnovers are random miss the point entirely. IMHO no one actually believes that ALL turnovers are random and no one actually believes that ALL turnovers are controllable. In fact, everyone agrees that turnovers are a combination of luck (i.e. random and not controllable) and performance (i.e. not random and controllable). But, if even half of all turnovers are controllable (and far more than half are), their impact is often the difference between an excellent season (M would have been 10-2 without the TOs in the ND and ohio games last year) and a mediocre one (M was 8-4 last year). Simply shrugging your shoulders and saying, "Oh well, I know the reason we lost the ND and ohio games last year was because of turnovers but we were just unlucky. We should have better luck this year" seems quite insane to me.
A Brief History: I started this diary during the end of the 2009 season and just looked at total turnovers per year. However, it was obvious that any rational turnover analysis must be based on a game by game examination rather than just total TOs per year. For 2010, the diary analyzed TOs for each game but used an average value of 4 points per turnover to determine impacts. This did not recognize that the situation that exists before each turnover is critical to the importance of and the value determined for the turnover. Therefore, in 2011, the analysis evolved to use Expected Points (EP) to determine impacts. Using EP, each turnover may have a value from 0.0 to 11.6 "points" depending on the situational analysis.
A Decade of Michigan Quarterbacks: The decade started with 5 straight years of positive turnover margins and national rankings of #47 or better. This corresponded with quarterbacks throwing few interceptions except in 2007 when injured Henne and Mallet threw a bunch but were bailed out by takeaways that were outstanding (ranked #21). Then, the era of "he who shall not be mentioned" brought 3 straight years of just horrible giveaways (both interceptions and fumbles), takeaways, and TOM. Since Brady Hoke took over, quarterback interceptions have not improved. The only reason 2011 was not a negative TOM year was because the defense was terrific and ranked #27 for takeaways. Quarterback interceptions are the key to controlling turnovers.
New Turnover Data: In 2012, the folks at Football Outsiders – FEI did a weekly "Revisionist Box Scores" that striped out TOs, Special Teams, and Field Position. FEI calculates the value generated by each drive and then lost on the drive up until the turnover, as if the drive had concluded at that spot on the field. They looked at all 696 FBS games. The FEI results corroborated the results that I had calculated in these diaries (yea!). A more detailed review unleashed some rather unexpected results. As posted last year, TOs are the determining factor in the outcome of just 16% of games. But, for a 12 game regular season, this results in the average team having 2 games determined by TOs. In 2012, there were 107 FBS teams that had at least one game determined by TOs – that is 86% of the 124 FBS teams. While 27% of all FBS teams had just a single game decided by TOs, 59% of all FBS teams had 2 or more games decided by TOs, and one team (South Florida) had an unbelievable total of 7 games decided by TOs!
Obviously, if a team has more than one game decided by TOs, they will have a net of multiple wins, multiple losses, or a combination of wins and losses. South Florida fumbled their total of 7 games decided by TOs into a net of 3 losses. The biggest loser was Marshall – managing to turn all 4 games decided by TOs into losses. The other teams who lost 3 games due to TOs are Southern Mississippi, South Alabama, and Maryland. The biggest winner was Ohio University turning all 4 games decided by TOs into wins. Louisville, Northwestern, and Middle Tennessee were the three teams that won 3 games due to turnovers. Without turnovers, Louisville would have had a record of 7-5 instead of 10-2 and Northwestern would have ended up 6-6 instead of 9-3.
As you can see from this chart, teams that end the year with a negative TOM are unlikely to have a winning season. Teams with a + 0.5 TOM/Game or better have a 70% chance of having a WLM of + 4 or better (WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses). For a 12 game season, 0.5 TOM/Game is equal to a total TOM of 6. In 2012, Michigan defied the odds by posting an 8-4 record (+4 WLM) with a – 0.7 TOM/game.
Last year I concluded that Michigan had a total of 3 games determined by TOs although my actual EP calculations only resulted in 2 games determined by TOs. The exception was the MSU game. The calculations resulted in a value of just 1.5 EP for the Kovacs interception with 2:03 left in the third quarter because it was third down and MSU would have punted to Michigan on the next play anyway. Since M won by 2 points, the exact numbers do not indicate that TOs were the determining factor. This is where EP (as well as any purely mathematical analysis) falls short. Being at the game, there is no doubt in my mind that the TO was a major factor in the win.
For the folks at FEI, Michigan lost a net of 2 games due to TOs. For me, we lost a net of just 1 game due to TOs. Using the FEI data, M was one of just 14 teams that lost a net of 2 or more games due to TOs last year.
Final Thoughts: Please decide which of the following four quotes from this week are true and which are made up.
A) Brady Hoke: "Turnovers? I am surprised that anyone would even ask such a question. Everyone knows that turnovers are random events and no amount of coaching or player preparation can have any affect on the number of giveaways or takeaways."
B) Brady Hoke: "Obviously, you can't give the ball away. Right now we've got a major league problem where we've got to fix it. Because that's not going to win any championships."
C) MGoBrian: "I am surprised that so many people are concerned about Devin Gardner's turnovers. Yes, his 6 turnovers in four games last year and his 10 turnovers in four games this year are the worst in the FBS, but they are random events that neither he nor anyone else has any control over. Probability tells us it will simply fix itself."
D) MGoBrian: "Gardner hardly ever puts the ball away. That's a QB sneak on which Gardner has one hand on the ball, and the fumble Gods strike." and "Gardner didn't set his feet because he was getting some pressure up the middle, and while that is suboptimal he had some room to work with that he did not use."
CALM BEFORE THE CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
NOTE: The format will alter slightly next week – conference averages will become the focus of the remaining entries in this series with cumulative averages and the OOC / Conference breakdown probably being the format of the entry which comes immediately after the regular season ends in December.
This past weekend was a relatively light one for the Big Ten, with only six teams active, four of them playing against a fellow conference opponent (i.e., two conference games). Altogether, it makes the record of the conference 1-1 in the non-conference games, with Iowa and Ohio State being the victors in the two in-conference games.
SCORING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
There hasn’t been much of a shift on, well, most metrics, but we’ll go over these briefly all the same. Ohio State still tends to be the most prolific scoring team in the Big Ten, with Indiana and the schedule of teams that play even less defense than even they do trailing by only a few points. Once again, the two stingiest teams are Michigan State and Penn State, with Purdue being the stingiest with itself, as you can see on the differential graph.
TOTAL OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
Once again, not much movement here due to the light week – nine teams still average over 400 yards per game on offense, with Michigan being the ninth of those nine. The more notable division here is in yards allowed, where Michigan sits in the top six with some fairly respectable numbers then there is Minnesota followed by air in a lot of cases. On the yards per play differentials, you can see that it is basically still Wisconsin, some guys and then Purdue.
RUSHING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
There are not really any shocking twists in the Big Ten rushing game right now – Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska run the ball quite a bit normally and do it very well, so the top quartile right now is expected. Michigan is ninth, but with a number that actually isn’t terrible if it is a seasonal average. When it comes to stopping the run, Purdue is bad at it, but Indiana is worse and the Boilermakers must at least enjoy that.
PASSING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
The passing averages are another area where it is one team – Indiana in this case – and then a large chunk of the conference within earshot of one another, all followed by an underperformer – Minnesota here. As for defending the pass, Nebraska and Northwestern are the worst at it so far, and as you might guess, Michigan State is the most successful at it to date.
When we’re talking about getting third downs, there are four teams in the Big Ten that are converting half of theirs or better right now – Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana, with Michigan at a reasonable 48.1%. On the flip side of the ball, only two teams are allow more than 40% of third downs to be converted, and those would be Northwestern and Purdue. On the differential graph, you can see the ongoing progress of Boilerquest as well.
SPECIAL TEAMS ITEMS: