Diaries

Disclaimer: I am not a football coach, football player, or football commentator. My analysis is purely amateur. That said, MGoUser joeyb and I were at the game today, so I figured I'd share my thoughts on DT Matt Godin and ATH Drake Johnson after DCC's manhandling of Pioneer:

• When Ace said Drake Johnson 'was' the Pioneer offense... man, he wasn't kidding. Drake got every carry on the first two possessions, and then lined up as a wildcat QB for most of the rest of the game. From that position he would hand off, run, and throw with about equal frequency.  I think that this was mostly an attempt to work around the aggressive DCC defensive line. He was also their main kick returner (more on that later), and handled the punting duties as well.
   
• DCC's D-line is either very good, or Pioneer's O-line is very bad. Every single pass attempt ended in an incompletion, interception, or sack. Johnson was never really able to find any holes- most of his yardage came on two carries for 12 and 9 yards. While some of this was definitely Godin being Godin, a lot of DCC's dominance came from their right-side defensive end.
   
• While it was tough to really see Drake's talents on display, he did have a few touches that weren't blown up right away. He seems to be a one-crease-and-go kind of guy, not really interested in dancing or cutting back unless the cutback lane was gapingly open.
   
• I don't think he's going to take over the halfback passing duties from Smith anytime soon- he had a few passes to 'relatively' open guys that went to Tacopants instead- but he's got decent arm strength.
   
• On kickoff returns, he has the nasty habit of catching the ball over his head rather than setting up behind it so he can get his momentum going forward. He didn't drop any, though, so... good hands? He had three kick returns.
   
• The first he took at the goal line and hit a major crease on the right sideline for about 40 yards. Once he got through the first line, he was off. Had 2 guys to beat to the end zone, the first one knocked him OOB. He never slowed down or looked to cut.
   
• The second he took at about the five, the coverage was a lot better. He had no hole to hit, but that didn't stop him from running straight into the pile and getting dropped at around the 20. Maybe he thought he could just plow through them, but I would like him to try and set up a block and maybe reverse it.
   
• The third, he started left and had nothing, so he cut back right and got about 25 yards. Looked much more like a collegiate return.
   
• As a route runner, he only had around three or four snaps, but showed off his speed and actually ran some nice crisp routes. Quick to get out of his break and got separation on a few post routes. If his QB had any time, they could have thrown to him.
   
• Matt Godin played LT on every DCC offensive snap save the last few. Since we're recruiting him as a DT, I won't spend much time talking about his blocking, but I will note that he had a really hard time finding anyone in the second level to block. His best snaps were when he had ends lined up directly over him, but those came few and far between as DCC often lined up a tight end to his side. He took a lot of plays off on offense when the run wasn't to his side.
   
• As a DT, I know I'll sound like every other football commenter ever, but man... pad level, pad level, pad level. Sure, he's four inches taller than everyone else out there, but his stance pre-snap was mostly bent at the waist, not the knees. Unofficially, I had him with four tackles, three right at the line of scrimmage.
   
• As I mentioned before, DCC's D-line was in the backfield all game. Most of the passing pressure came from the ends, but Godin was consistently pushing single blocks back on passing downs. On runs, he seemed content to hold people right at the line, whether he was being single or double blocked.
   
• His best play by far came in the third quarter. The play was a run off the left guard, Godin was lined up outside the right guard. Off the snap, the RG dove at Godin, trying to cut him. Godin took a half-step back and pushed the RG down, ran over him and wrapped up Drake in the backfield, tackling right at the line for no gain.
   
• The worst thing I saw about Godin, though, was his effort. There were far too many plays where he'd simply stop playing after making his initial move off the line, whether on offense or defense. Hoke is gonna have to coach some serious effort into this guy. He's got all the physical tools to be a standout, but needs some serious technical and mental refining.

Video companion to the Picture Pages 'Zone Minus Read.'  Analysis courtesy Brian, as usual. Original Picture Pages at http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-zone-minus-read. So this time I've got proper lowercase letters and the slo-mo is working again.  That means next time I probably will have effed-up lowercase letters and no slo-mo.

Setup: It's second and three on Michigan's first drive of the second half. They come out in Ace one-wide against Iowa's 4-3 under and will run an inside zone.

Wha'hoppon: Michigan doubles the NT and strong side DE as the LBs flow straight upfield.  The critical point here is when Lewan just chips the backside DE and then goes out on a LB.  This leaves the DE as a free hitter.  There are a lot of things you can do differently with Denard in the shotgun reading that DE (the DE would either have to keep contain on Denard and open up a cutback lane for Fitzgerald, or go for Fitzgerald and leave Denard one-on-one against the safety).  Since they aren't, he's free to more or less make the tackle.  Brian also questions Watson's decision to block the SLB outside and ignore the DE, but I'm not sure the result would have been any different - the SLB would have been maybe one step later in pursuit, but the DE got to the spot so fast that one step probably wouldn't have mattered.

Original Picture Pages at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAQefW9nCkg

Forward Overview:

I would like to first start out by saying Thank God this is not us. Both teams came into the season looking for answers on the offensive side and so far Miami has had a lot of trouble replacing the departed. I guess it's difficult to replace a 70 point scorer, a 50 point scorer, and a 30 point scorer if you're not Red Berenson. Rilley Smith leads the group as the highest scoring starter to return this season but the results have been ugly, right now this team does not appear on the NCAA top 40 in scoring. They are awful at scoring and when they do score it's still ugly, and that's about the only scoring highlight there is. Miami has played a weak schedule so far with the best opponents being Ferris and LSSU and was swept by both, so it's safe to say that this team is not very good.

Defensive Overview:

The reason I only chart four defensemen is because these four are the only ones who are listed on the official score sheet. The forwards were bad but this group of defensmen might be the worst in the country, which is very surprising because this is not a young unit of blueliners. They have a huge problem with penalties and a mediocre PK, and if they continue this trend Wolverine forwards will have no problem getting quality scoring chances.

The picture illustrates how not to play defense so that even someone with little understanding of the game could realize what is going on. The forward is bringing the puck down and the defensemen is bailing because he was caught so high up. He should be 5 feet back keeping pace, not turning his hips trying to keep up. This is a mistake we made in squirts, it's unacceptable in college hockey and they seem to do it way to much.

Goalie:

What happened? The regression from both goalies and defensemen have been huge, fans expected a drop in production but nothing like this. It's so bad that the Reichard has gone from All-American to 30^th in GAA AVG and unlisted in SV%. Miami likes to split goalies so we will see both Reichard and Knapp, but at this point I don't think it really matters.

Michigan

Forward Overview:

As Usual the forwards have been strong, but I have been very impressed by Guptil and Travis Lynch so far this season. Both have been positive contributers on the scoring end this year, but have also been playing solid defense and have been out of the box. I'm excited to see how they play this weekend against such a poor defense, especially after playing above-average to outstanding blueliners the past three series.

Defensive Overview:

Greg Pateryn 2-8-10 SOG 23 +9 PMIS 8

Mac Bennett 2-7-9 SOG +9 PIMS 4

Lee Moffie 1-5-6 SOG 20 +10 PIMS 8

Mike Chiasson 0-4-4 SOG 5 +14 PIMS 9

Brennan Serville 0-3-3 SOG 6 +4 PIMS 0

Kevin Clare 1-1-2 SOG 4 +5 PIMS 0

In an earlier preview I compared the defense to a horror movie, our guys are the unsuspecting male protagonists who never see the bad guy sneaking up behind them. At this point it's getting old because it happens way too much. Watching film on previous games the other teams are not getting great scoring chances, but most of the time when they score it's because of a defensemen watching the puck and letting his guy get behind him. I can not point to a reason why this happened because the upperclassmen are making the mistakes, It's not like this was caused by not having Jon Merrill and Chad Langlias. Hopefully they can make a statement this weekend and get some confidence moving forward.

Goalie:

Still Hunwick even if he isn't getting a lot of help from the defense.

Prediction

I have given up predictions because I am a superstitious sports fan and so far every prediction I have made has not came true. Looking at how bad Miami is and how we have played so far I would give us an edge, but we play on friday so anything can happen. Ill leave the board to discuss.

Tailgating

For you super early-bird tailgaters, Champaign won't hit 40 degrees until 8am, and with a SW wind at 10-15mph, wind chill will make it feel like 30. By 10am, wind chill still hanging on, and although it will be 48, it'll still feel like it's in the low 40s. That wind has picked up a bit also, still out of the southwest, but up to 17-22mph (small trees sway). Temps will hit 55 by 1pm, SW winds up to a steady 22mph, and gusts possible up to 25mph (empty plastic garbage cans tip over, you can hear the wind "whistling"). Cloud cover will increase during the day, but tailgating should be mostly sunny.

Kickoff

Remember it's a 2:30 CT start! Reaching the high of 59 degrees with mostly sunny skies for kickoff. And that wind's not backing down... SSW winds at 20mph, with gusts up to 32mph (it's difficult to use an umbrella, you need to use effort to walk against the wind).

Halftime

Dropping just a degree or two for halftime, still a warm 58 degrees. Partly sunny skies by now, as more and more clouds build their way in. SSW winds remain high also at 20mph, and expect gusts up around 30mph.

Post-Game

Experiencing not nearly the same cool down as Friday night, Champaign will stay mild. Even by last call, temps will only be in the low 50s. The clouds continue to build for a mostly cloudy evening and staying that way overnight. Those SSW winds stay at 20mph, with gusts still possible up to 30mph, increasing into Sunday. If you're driving home on Sunday, expect mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of rain, highs in the low 60s, and windy conditions-be careful driving as gusts could be up to 40mph!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

Standings are here.  Ctrl+F is your friend if you don’t want to read through 1149 names to find yours.

I’m too pissed off at Arizona State and West Virginia both dropping out of the rankings this week to offer up much commentary.

Texas sneaks back into the poll and Southern Miss is ranked for the first time since 2004 just like I very safely predicted last week.  Why did they have to do it at the expense of my teams though? Blerg.

Nebraska and Michigan are the only other big losers, dropping about 10 places in the poll.  Everyone else has only moved slightly, including Alabama who only drops 2 spots.

This week it will be TCU or Ohio State who crawl back into the rankings.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Week 10 brings us the eighth lead change of the season.  BrooklynBlue is in the lead this week with 94 points coming from Oklahoma, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Houston.

He trails a perfect ballot by only 11 points.  The perfect ballot this week is unchanged for the third week in a row: LSU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Clemson.  That lineup would earn you 105 points.

The bottom five had a bit of a shakeup as Texas got three people out of dead last place.  Two of last week’s loveable losers remain and are joined by three new members of the last place club.  They have to enjoy it while their infamy lasts though, TCU might just rocket them up the standings all the way to 1110th.

Judging Your Picks

Not much change from last week.  MGoBlog’s picks have a median of 50 points while a completely random ballot would earn an expected 51 points.  If you have over 50 points then you are officially above average.  If you have under 50 points, then you should look in a mirror and repeat to yourself

Games to Watch

#10 Virginia Tech just beat #20 Georgia Tech by 11 points and #11 Houston is crushing unranked (and coachless?) Tulane.  This weekend one might want to keep an eye on these games

#19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State

noon on ESPN

Probably the lowest scoring BCS game of the weekend.  A very good defense going up against a questionable offense and a good defense going up against a bad offense.  It will provide an interesting contrast to the noon points-fest of Texas at Missouri (on FX).  I don’t want to steal jamiemac’s thunder but you should probably consider taking under 43 in the Nebraska game and over 59 in the Texas game.

#24 Auburn at #14 Georgia

3:30 on CBS

The only real challenge standing between Georgia and the SEC East championship.  I don’t think anybody knows what to make of Auburn this year, while Georgia is an uninspiring 7-2 team coming off a 63-16 win against New Mexico State.  You’ll be busy during this game but look for updates on the scroll.

#6 Oregon at #3 Stanford

8 pm on ABC

The Pac-12 North will be decided this weekend.  Who they will face is up in the air.  UCLA could be their opponent.  Whoever wins this week will almost certainly be in the Rose Bowl if they’re not in the championship game.  If they make it to the championship then the loser will probably be in the Rose Bowl.  How do you think that game will turn out for the Big 10?

West Virginia at #23 Cincinnati

noon on ABC/ESPN3

After a loss to Louisville last week West Virginia’s Big East Title is looking unlikely.  If they win out they still have a chance though.  Cincinnati is alone in first place with a conference record of 3-0.