"The University of Illinois is also in turmoil. The university sports an Interim Chancellor, an Interim Athletic Director, and an Interim Football Coach; the game will be played at Soldier Field, making this an Illini Interim Home Game."
How long should we wait for this guy?
There is constant chatter on this board and in the media about how freshmen RBs should be able to contribute right away. The basic tenet of this belief is that if a RB is athletic and is any good, he'll be able to produce right away. Sure, he might not have the nuances of pass protection and route running down, but he should at least be able to pick-up some yards on running downs as a true freshman. Guys like T.J. Yeldon make this easy to believe.
So, I decided to find out how true this is. If you suck as a freshman RB, are you likely to be any good at any point in your career? If Derrick Green doesn't contribute significantly this season, should we ? Going even further, is Rawls a lost cause at this point? Hayes?
Having a little less time than I'd like to do a thorough examination of the data, I used a somewhat limited sample: the top 40 RBs in terms of yards/game from 2012. I broke seasons into three categories: Primary starter (PS), significant back-up (SB), and insignificant season (IS).
These categories are actually surprisingly simple to define: Primary starters are obvious, and guys that are significant contributors at the position are equally easy to separate from the dudes that get trash-time and spot carries. Insignificant seasons also include redshirts, but not medical redshirts. I also took out JUCOs.
Here are the top 40 RBs from 2012 (NOT in order of production):
|2||1||0||Le'Veon Bell||Mich St||JR|
|2||1||0||Joseph Randle||Okla St||JR|
|2||0||0||Jahwan Edwards||Ball State||SO|
|1||0||0||Kenneth Dixon||La Tech||FR|
|2||0||1||Giovani Bernard||N Carolina||SO|
|1||2||1||Kerwynn Williams||Utah State||SR|
|3||0||1||Robbie Rouse||Fresno St||SR|
|1||1||1||Dri Archer||Kent State||JR|
|1||1||1||Carlos Hyde||Ohio State||JR|
|1||0||2||Antonio Andrews||Western Ky||JR|
|1||1||2||Kasey Carrier||New Mexico||JR|
|1||1||2||D.J. Harper||Boise St||SR|
|1||0||3||Zurlon Tipton||C Mich||JR|
|1||0||3||Cody Getz||Air Force||SR|
I have to admit, I was pretty surprised. Only 15 (37.5%) avoided having insignificant or redshirt seasons their first year on campus. And only six (15%) were the primary starters as true freshman, leaving nine (22.5%) as back-ups. That means the vast majority, 25 players (62.5%) spent at least one year doing nothing or next-to-nothing. Of those 25, only four (10%) went from insignificance to starting in one season. The rest (21, 52.5%) spent at least two years developing before becoming starters. And nearly as many (14, 35%) spent multiple years doing almost nothing as jumped right in as contributors (PS or SB) in their true freshmen campaigns. Heck, even Eddie Lacy redshirted.
This is admittedly a small sample size, but it's enough to draw some basic conclusisons:
- Plenty of talented RBs have insignificant seasons; many have more than one
- RARELY does a freshman RB burst onto the scene as a primary starter
- About half of these guys spend at least two years developing before they start
- The experts are idiots (of course, I must admit that I believed the "if they're any good they'll contribute as true freshmen stuff before I looked at it)
And some Michigan-specific conclusions:
- If Green and/or Smith doesn't contribute significantly this year, he's unlikely to start next year
- We shouldn't worry if Green and/or Smith doesn't contribute significantly this year
- Hope is not lost for Hayes, Johnson, or even Rawls.
It's worth noting that a few of the guys that spent multiple seasons developing turned out to be pretty darn good players. Guys like Eddie Lacy, Venric Mark, Carlos Hyde, Kenjon Barner, and Stefphon Jefferson all spent at least a couple seasons as insignificant contributors. On the flipside of that coin, lots of the best talent contributed early: Ka'Deem Carey, Le'Veon Bell, Montee Ball, Johnathan Franklin, and Todd Gurley.
Basically, we don't need to worry if Green and Smith don't contribute this year. It's definitely a good sign if they do, but there are much better things to be concerned about (S, OG, OC, and now WR) in 2013.
Rivals is my favorite recruiting system. Not my favorite site, and not my favorite rankings (ESPN is winning that title this year), but my favorite system. In addition to stars, they have a relatively simple system for ranking recruits:
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.
6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
A 6.1 player is basically top 35; 6.0 = 35-85; 5.9 = 85-160; 5.8 = 160-300.
To put it in NFL terms, a 6.1 is a 1st or early 2nd-round NFL draft pick. A 6.0 is a 2nd-3rd rounder. A 5.9 is a middle-round pick. A 5.8 is a late round or undrafted FA type. A 5.7 is a player with fringe NFL potential, a 5.6 is an NFL longshot, a 5.5 isn't going to make it. 5.4 and below are guys that are unlikely to see snaps at U-M.
Keep in mind that the standard at Michigan is high. Jeff Backus keeps a picture of a Michigan huddle on his wall. Why? Because everyone in that huddle would go on to play in the NFL. While that's not typical, the majority of our starters on both sides of the ball should at least find themselves on NFL rosters for a season or two.
That said, I have taken the Rivals Rankings and re-ranked our players according to my current expectations. This is based on the evidence I have, which is obviously flimsy for the guys that haven't played yet. It's a combination of what I've seen on the field, practice buzz, and my gut. Using Derrick Green as an example, I don't think we've seen or heard anything at this point that would suggest he is a 1st-round NFL pick (PLEASE remember that I haven't seen him play an actual down of college football yet). The flipside is that Dymonte Thomas is already showing signs of an impact player, justifying his 5.9 ranking, while Gardner appears on his way to being a solid early-round NFL draft choice.
I have ONLY ranked the players I believe are likely to contribute this season.
|James Ross III||WLB||5.8||5.9|
No, I'm not going to explain the rankings one-by-one. What I will say is that I believe our average needs to be closer to 5.83 before we are considered "elite."
Also note that the rankings should be slightly inflated. Why? Because these are the guys that are projected to contribute to our team this season. They have gone from recruits to players, and have either demonstrated performance on the field or generated significant buzz.
You'll also notice that higher-ranked players are likely to see rankings revised downward. This is part common sense, part timing: a top-ranked player has nowhere to go but down and most of our higher-ranked players are young and not yet fully-developed.
Finally, you'll notice a few grades below 5.7 in the re-rank. If we are to be an elite team, we should not have any (other than kickers) players below 5.7 pushing for playing time.
Here are the rankings, with my projected starters only:
|James Ross III||LB||5.8||5.9|
This includes a slot WR, nickel CB, KR, and extra LB (JMFR). If we're looking to be a dominant team, I think we need an average closer to 5.88.
I will revisit these rankings after the season, and perhaps once in the middle.
While everyone is busy breaking down the scrimmage film with a Jim Garrison-like passion, I thought I would sneak a little preseason preview of some concepts I have been thinking about for how to measure success on a down by down basis. If you want to avoid the nerdy details, skip down for some pretty charts.
Looking at down by down success is a tricky thing and right now there are only limited tools for how to evaluate how an offense is utilizing its most precious resource. The only mainstream tool is third down conversion percentage. This tool’s simplicity is both its weakness and a hidden strength.
Third down conversion rate does not take into consideration how hard your third downs are to convert. Two teams could have identical conversion percentages but if one team has a lot of third and shorts and the other doesn’t the team that doesn’t is accomplishing a much tougher job than the first team. That absence of context is also the hidden strength. Third down percentage isn’t a great predictor of how good your team performs on third down as much as it is an all-encompassing look at how good your team is at getting to manageable third downs and then converting them.
The newer stat that looks at all downs is the Success Rate metric, one I have been on record as not being a huge fan of. Success Rate is a more nuanced look at each down and assigns them a binary pass fail grade depending on whether they meet certain threshold criteria. A binary makes some sense on third down and more sense over the collection of downs, but there is too much opportunity for other value to come and go for the binary to be of major use.
A third way is an expected value (EV). How much value is each team adding or subtracting on given downs. This is a literal value look at ranking teams by what they are accomplishing on a given downs. I have traditionally used this metric but again, it lacks the detail of what is really going on behind the numbers. An EV look tends to lend a lot of value to big play teams and punish consistent gainers. There is evidence to support the rankings coming out that way, but again, I don’t think the numbers tell a good football story in one dimension.
The Early Downs Breakthrough
As I began digging into this I pulled all kinds of numbers looking at each of the three downs separately before it dawned on me, first and second down are really a package deal. They are the offense’s opportunity to either do something big or maximize their chances of a third down conversion, first and second downs and typically on the offense’s terms. You can only create big plays so often and even being good at getting in great third downs all the time still means you are having a lot of plays with a chance for the defense to get off of the field. 3rd and 1’s are converted 72% of the time by the offense, so if you get in three of those situations the odds are nearly two to one that you get stuffed on one of them. Being good at avoiding third downs is a better skill for an offense than getting in manageable ones (although both are obviously preferred).
So to that end, I put together three key metrics for an offense for 1st and 2nd downs:
Early Conversion %: Percent of first downs that are created prior to third down. An average team will convert at about 50% with the best offenses closing in on 60%, like the 2011 Oregon offense.
Bonus Yards: This is a big play metric. For the plays that create a conversion, how many yards beyond the sticks does the average play go. Average teams are around 6.5. Mike Leach’s 2005 Texas Tech team was one of the best ever at 9 yards beyond the stick.
Average 3rd Down Distance: The first two metrics are about the successes, historically, most football coaches are more about minimizing the negative. This metric is for them. For the 50% of the time that the average team faces a third down, how many yards are they typically facing. The average team still has 6.5 yards to go on an average third down. Last year’s Air Force team that Michigan faced was the best of the last 10 years with an average distance faced of 4.0 yards for the season.
Now that early downs have hopefully been understood a little better, it’s time to look at third down and focus on a true measure of the down itself. One option that’s sometimes used is to break down the conversion rates into yardage buckets representing short yardage, medium, etc. This isn’t the worst way to go about it, but still isn’t great. Unless its over a large portion of time, sample size problems are likely and you still potentially have problems, although much smaller now, of where do the actuals trials fall into the buckets. Too many buckets and the splits become hard differentiate, too few and there is little continuity to what you are measuring.
To try and solve these issues, here is my suggested stat:
Adjusted 3rd Down Conversion Percentage: Each third down distance has an average conversion rate that looks like this:
1 yard to go converts at 72%, 10 yards to go at 28%. If an offense converts a third and 1, they get +28% for that play. Fail and it’s –72%. Average up all the third downs for a period and you are left with a single number to reflect how a team has done on third downs, that isn’t weighted by being better at first and second down. The other nice thing is that it is naturally anchored to zero. An average team is at +0%. 2011 Wisconsin with Russell Wilson and Montee Ball was the best Big Ten third down team at +16%. 2011 Alabama was the best third down defense at –15%.
Taking all the above analysis, I pulled the results for last season and put them together in a fancy new Tableau table (click to control the view [ed-S: we know; we're working on the links]).
Circle size represents average third down distance
So, Michigan was pretty good on a down by down basis, last year. Only Clemson and A&M where better at third downs when accounting for yards to go. Michigan was also one of the best teams at avoiding third downs altogether, converting on first or second down about 54% of the time.
The other big take away from this is that there are a lot of Big Ten teams at the left hand side of the chart. It’s a bit hard to tell from this view, but Big Ten teams are some of the best at managing third down distance but some of the worst at everything else. Fully half of the teams in the conference are in the lower left quadrant of teams that are bad at both. An offense whose goal is to get into manageable 3rd downs is an offense that is set up to fail.
Michigan lands pretty average across the Big Five conference landscape in both early downs and third downs on the defensive side. The strength of Michigan State’s defense really shows up here, as they only allowed teams to convert before 3rd down about 2 out of 5 times.
I am trying to put together a package of weekly reports and rankings that I can publish online. If anyone has any thoughts as to what you want to see that aren’t otherwise available, I am open for suggestions.
I think these charts do a good job of reflecting what’s happening on a down by down basis. What they don’t show are the impact of big plays and high leverage plays like turnovers and red zone plays.
Hey hey, I’m back with the first 2013 installment of “Reading the Tea Leaves,” the now annual pseudo-scientific prediction fest that comes in bushels of three (2012 editions here, here and here; 2011 editions here, here and here). And there’s a bonus for all you fantasy nerds out there—this is the A Song of Ice and Fire edition. To avoid nerd rage related controversy, or perhaps to court it, I’ve used this handy guide for my rankings of George R. R. Martin’s 5 aSoIaF novels.
In order to predict our regular-season record, I look at the two main “on paper” factors: who we are and who we play (which including circumstances, such as where we play them). Luck, of course, also plays a role—a bad fall here means Bellomy is your QB for most of the Nebraska game; a good bounce there and you recover a fumble instead of watching them kick the game-winning field goal. In lieu of a good way to quantify luck, I then utilize a probability algorithm to predict the number of wins, which is based on the aggregate of individual game assessments. It’s not complicated, but last year it correctly predicted 8 wins. This year I use 2—a conservative version and one that rests on more moderately bullish individual game assessments. Then I move on to the various scenarios and assign probabilities to each.
Our 2013 Roster/We Who Are
As far as our team goes, there are some question marks, but I’m oddly confident. After all, our DC got former super-bust BWC and ex-walk-on Kovacs into the NFL. We’ll miss Jake Ryan early on, but we only have one marquee game before he returns. And the secondary should be significantly better than it was last year (even considering the lack of Kovacs). Though we traded in experience for more, albeit green, talent, I trust Mattison. I don’t expect us to be dominant on defense, especially early on, but I think we’ll do fine and should improve as the season progresses.
On the offensive side, it’s largely going to come down to how quickly the new starters on the line acclimate. I expect growing pains early on, but unlike 2012, those pains won’t have to come in road games against either Alabama’s terra cotta army of 4 and 5 stars or a Manti Teo-led Notre Dame defense in South Bend. By the time we roll into East Lansing, I expect Kalis and, to a lesser degree, Braden and Miller, to be playing with enough confidence and poise to offset their lack of experience. There should be a lot of continuity from the late-2012 passing offense, while I expect the switch from off-Fitz-plus-Rawls to hopefully-back-on-Fitz-plus-freshman-Green to be a major upgrade.
Schedule/Who We Play
A lot of people expect our record to moderately improve from 2012’s rough 8-4. But in terms of schedule, at least, 2011 is a better comparison. Last year we had the misfortune of playing the AP #1, 3 and 4 teams in the regular season and played none of them at home. This year we play a depleted version of last year’s #4 (Notre Dame) at home and then get #3 (Ohio) at home as well. Oh, and did I mention that this year we trade Alabama for UCONN? Or that we nearly beat both Notre Dame and Ohio on the road last year?
The road games that bother me are Sparty, Penn State and Northwestern. Under Hoke we’ve been lights out at home but a little iffy on the road, so each of these represents a heightened challenge compared to last year (when they were at home). It’s always hard to win in East Lansing, especially in the Dantonio era, and their defense will be good. On the other hand, I still don’t see where the offensive yards will come from. At Penn State is at Penn State, even with all the question marks. And as far as Northwestern goes, well, we’ll see. But they played us close at home last year and their fast-paced spread offense might be the most likely of our opponents to take advantage of our defensive inexperience. That said, Northwestern is essentially Sparty’s inverse—as such, I don’t see how they’ll stop our offense.
Nebraska, oddly, doesn’t really bother me. Sure they’ve got some offensive firepower, but their defense looks to be even worse than Northwestern’s. Add to that the fact that we only lost last year’s game in Lincoln because Denard went out with an injury, as well as the fact that his year we get them at home. Where we are nearly unbeatable. So yeah, not scared.
As for the rest, well, there’s a modicum of trap potential in Iowa away, but all I see are Ws beyond that.
For the algorithm, which correctly predicted 8 wins last year, I’m assigning 1.00 for “guaranteed win,” 0.75 for “likely win,” 0.67 for “likely-but win” and 0.50 for tossup. Then it reverses down to 0.00. Because of our schedule, there aren’t any games below the tossup threshold this year. I’m doing two versions, one conservative and another bullish.
The conservative estimate outputs that as: 1) 5 guaranteed wins (CMU, Akron, @UCONN, Minnesota, Indiana); 2) 2 likely ones (Nebraska, @Iowa); 3) a likely-but win against Notre Dame at home plus; 4) 3 tossups courtesy of the road (@Sparty, @PSU, @Northwestern); and 4) another tossup against Ohio, courtesy of the fact that we get them at home.
5(1.00) + 2(0.75) + 0.67 + 4(0.50) = 9.17 wins
The more bullish version suggests: 1) 6 guaranteed wins (CMU, Akron, @UCONN, Minnesota, Indiana, @Iowa); 2) 2 likely ones (Notre Dame, Nebraska); 3) 2 likely-but, the “but” coming courtesy of the road (@PSU, @Northwestern; 4) a tossup for Sparty away; and 4) a genuinely scary Ohio, but at home.
6(1.00) + 2(0.75) + 2(0.67) + 2(0.50) = 9.84 wins
The math, then, predicts a range of 9-10 wins. However, variance being variance, there are a range of scenarios that are relatively more or less plausible. So without further ado…
1. A Clash of Kings.
Scenario: Non-stop action and death dealing! Our offensive line grows up quickly, and the move from experience to talent proves fundamental to a revitalized ground game, while Devin Gardner gets enough pass protection to tear up the Big 10’s mostly mediocre defenses. Meanwhile, we hold serve on run defense and even improve against the pass, which is enough to stymie the few good offenses we face. We stare down an invasion from
Stannis Baratheon Urban Meyer and repel him with our wildfire defense and an epic flanking movement passing offense.
Record: 12-0. We run the table and get to the Big 10 Championship Game, where we probably face Ohio for the second time in a week. A BCS bowl is a lock.
Probability: P = .05. Essentially, this would be our equivalent of what Notre Dame did last year, and would require a similar amount of luck and collapsing of the once-scary opponents (in our case Ohio and Sparty, in their case Oklahoma and USC). The Clash of Kings scenario is more likely than running the table was in 2012, but still not exactly likely. Ohio is going to be good, and though we can certainly beat them, Sparty is always fired up against us and especially when playing at home. Plus there’s uncertainty tied to the rest of the road games—are we talented, experienced and lucky enough to not blow any of them and still beat all the rivals? Maybe, but probably not.
2. A Storm of Swords
Scenario: We go red wedding on the Big 10 but get caught with our pants down in the toilet at one inopportune moment. Everything else from scenario #1 still applies.
Record: 11-1. We either run the table up to The Game or beat Ohio and lose to one of the other likely candidates. We probably get a Big 10 Championship Game out of it; either way we still get our best regular season since 1997.
Probability: P = .15. Okay, now we’re talking plausible-ish! Of course, all the disclaimers for scenario #1 apply here as well, with the caveat that we’re allowed our one bad day. That automatically makes it more likely, as even Alabama has had that over the past two years. Unfortunately, I see too many question marks on the roster to really get behind this scenario: an inexperienced interior O-line, no clear sense of whether we’ll get a pass rush, questions of whether Countess, Fitz and Ryan can return to form after rehabbing from serious injuries, etc. While I do expect these things to turn out well, when the entirety of the season is considered, they may not manifest positively in each and every game.
3. A Game of Thrones
Scenario: Taut. Gripping. Tantalizing yet never delivering that crucial victory. We are generally awesome, and kick some ass in the
Whispering Wood The Game/Conquest of the Juggalos, but run into a few roadblocks on the way.
Record: 10-2. Likely losses = 1 of Sparty/Ohio and 1 more from your “tossups,” “likely-buts” and ND. Whether we win the Legends Division in its final year depends on whom we lose to and how they do over the course of the season. Just like it did in 2011.
Probability: P = .30. Though the rational part of my brain is a bit more conservative, the enthusiastic, emotional fan part feels as if this is the way things will play out. It just keeps repeating “schedule, schedule, the schedule is faaaavorable” until I believe it’s more true than “roster, roster, the roster is inexpeeerienced.”
4. A Feast for Crows
Scenario: A mostly enjoyable ride that ultimately doesn’t live up to hopes and expectations.
Record: 9-3. I’d guess this means we lose ¾ out of the “likely-but” and “tossup” games. An early loss to ND (considering we don’t have Ryan and will be working out experience issues on the O-line) is not out of the realm of possibility either.
Probability: P = .35. Unfortunately, but not too unfortunately, the math suggests this is the most likely scenario, slightly beating out the more palatable 10-2 (since both of the estimates produce predicted win totals under 10). It would still constitute a bit of progress from 2012, though. That’s good. But it will probably produce a cavalcade of obnoxious “I told you so” columns from everyone’s “favorite” Freep columnist that evince a total disregard for logic and rationality. That’s bad.
5. A Dance with Dragons
Scenario: Where are we going? Why is this
Quentyn Martell section [insert player] injury rehab taking so long to resolve? Why is this Jon Snow/Danaerys storyline offense so boring and listless?
Record: 8-4 or lower. Things just don’t go as planned. Maybe that’s due to an injury, or maybe something just doesn’t work on offense and we don’t have Denard to bail us out with his legs.
Probability: .15. Last year we went 8-4 in the regular season, having played eventual national champion Alabama (away), eventual runner-up Notre Dame (away), eventual undefeated Ohio (away) and a decent-ish Nebraska team (away) after losing Denard and not, apparently, wanting to put Devin in. The idea that we’ll do the same or worse when there’s no Alabama, a crappier Notre Dame at home, Nebraska at home and Ohio at home strikes me as unlikely. But it isn’t impossible to imagine either, especially considering our lack of depth at key positions *cough* quarterback *cough*.
Prediction is tricky business, because there's only so much you can know before you're in the moment. I've tried to factor that uncertainty into this analysis, but there's no guarantee I've done it well enough. Plus there's the fact that preseason predictions almost inevitably overvalue the previous season's results--hence why I underestimated our record in 2011 and overestimated it in 2012. But the algorithm was on the money last year, so this year I've tried to hew more closely to it and rely less on intuition. That said, it still rests on a foundation of subjective assessment, so feel free to point out where I've made mistakes in my estimations. And, of course, feel free to disagree with the aSoIaF rankings as well!
I hope this is okay that I'm making a new thread for this, the other one was getting quite long and bogged down in Derrick Green weight Chicken Littles vs Polly Annas.
Since I've already spent an embarrasingly long amount of time this Sunday watching the CTK scrimmage footage, I figure I'd write down some of my observations. Let me know if I missed something or got something wrong and I'll try to edit the OP. Mr. tight cam definitely makes this pretty tough to get 100% right.
EDIT: Here's the link to the video
Hand off to Fitz
Glasgow and Miller block Washington. Williams also seals off Heitzman to the inside. Kalis pulls around him and nails Ross (?) in the hole. Darboh tries to block Gordon but gets there late. Gordon makes initial contact with Fitz. Big pile of bodies converge and brings him down. Funchess comes into the screen tied up with Cam Gordon, looks to be holding his own.
Hand off to Fitz
Glasgow and Miller block Washington, <camera pans to Handoff to Fitz>, the line is already a clusterfuck as he gets there and is buried. Looks like Morgan and Washington combine to make the tackle. Kalis is up to the next level but doesn't seem to have found his target.
Pass to Chesson
Nose tackle seems offsides? Almost looked as if Miller snaps the ball to catch him as the rest of the line is a beat slow off the ball. Fitz does a good job to pick up the rusher off the edge, giving Devin time to find Chesson on the right boundary. Ball is thrown beautifully where only the receiver has a play. Countess is right there but can do nothing about the height advantage. Avery comes in just in time to lay a hit on Chesson had he kept his feet, may even have been in position to light him up in the air but held up on a defenseless receiver.
Hand off to Fitz
Willie Henry in at 3 Tech. Hand off to Fitz, Kerridge is lead blocker and Fitz follows him through a nice hole by the time the camera pans back. Actually Schofield is just losing his man but Fitz is by in time. Not really sure what happens here, lots of motion blur. Looks like Kerridge thumps someone at the LOS. I can tell Millar and also Glasgow has gotten to the next level on Morgan, Countess comes up in run support for the tackle. Lewan looked to pulling to fwiw.
Hand off to Fitz
Funchess motions (?) next to Lewan. C Gordon gets into the backfield but gets juked. Fitz gets the left edge but C Gordon doesn't give up and weaves through traffic to track him down. Fitz meanwhile jukes a DB out of his shoes. Funchess is in great position here to lay a mean crack back block on C Gordon, but is too busy watching Fitz. Probably a tough ask to have awareness that C Gordon is in pursuit. Taylor comes in to mop up.
Hand off to Hayes
Glasgow pulls around and gets a nice block on Morgan but it's all for naught as C Gordon slips his blocker (Funchess?) and makes the tackle. Lewan is sealing the backside against Ojemudia. Matt Godin sighting at DE. Ball comes out but I think he was down.
Hand off to Green
Ojemudia shoots through the gap inside Schofield and draws both Schofield's and Kerridge's attention. Meanwhile Henry has stunted around and meets Green in the backfield. Kalis arrives late as Ross beats Funchess (?) and, along with a helpful shove from Countess, swarm Green.
Screen pass to Hayes
Heitzman (?) eats a screen as he breaks through the line and by Hayes. Devin lobs over him and on the money to Hayes. D Thomas impressively diagnoses the play and slices in to get Hayes by the ankles, looks like Dileo was assigned to block him. Ojemudia also looks to have beat Glasgow, but falls down. RJS was in the area too. This one probably wasn't going to work
Devin in shotgun with what looks to be an empty backfield. C Gordon and Avery come free and Devin is barely able to get rid of it, hopefully past the line of scrimmage and out of bounds, like a ceiling fan. PLEASE BE CAREFUL WITH THE GUY IN THE ORANGE JERSEY, K THANKS. Also, get that damn golf cart out of there.
Play action pass to Reynolds, TD
Braden is your LG. Oline is zoning towards the left, Gardner fakes the handoff to Green (?) and rolls right. He has good protection, nice blocking by Willams, and he has time to find Joe Reynolds beating Taylor by a step. Avery in the area as the safety. Gunderson sighting at the end.
Play action to Dileo
Similar to previous play but reversed. Ash at DT, Magnuson at LT. C Gordon takes a step laterally to the inside and comes screaming through this time just as Devin fakes the handoff to Smith. This diverts C Gordon a bit or else he was in position for the sack (probably by design), then gets shoved to the ground from behind. Looks like Henry is also in the backfield but Devin has just enough time to find Dileo all alone underneath. Taylor and Avery make the tackle after Dileo picks up another 5 YAC. DILEO!!!!
Hand off to Rawls
Ash at NT. Defense reads the play and converge. Rawls hits the wall of bodies and gets nothing. Braden appears to have lost his man there. Ross appears to have put Miller on his ass and he's not happy. Willie Henry and Ash are your nominal tacklers but the whole front 7 is there a split second later.
Play action pass Reynolds, TD
Devin drops back and fakes the handoff to Hayes and fires the ball downfield, caught by Reynolds. Delonte Hollowell makes a break on the reciever but over runs it. He manages to wrap his hands on Reynolds but can't keep him out of the endzone. There is much singing and rejoicing.
Hand off to Hayes
Looks like a nice hole between RT GUnderson and RG Kalis but Hayes sees something he doesn't like and hesitates. That something is James Ross, who makes a great diving tackle on Hayes, as Ojemudia slips Gunderson's block and comes from the outside to assist. Looks like it was Miller's job to get out and block Ross here, judging by body language. James Ross is probably not getting a Christmas card from Jack Miller this year.
Pass to Hayes
Looks to be stacked recievers to the right. Devin takes the ball from shotgun. Lots of time initially, but Devin's 1st/2nd reads seem to be covered. Eventually a trio of defenders (Henry, Wormley,???) and breaks through and flush Devin to the right. Devin throws a nice touch pass on the move over Countess to find Hayes who walks in the endzone before Countess can bring him down
Hand off to Rawls at the goal line
Glasgow pulls nicely, almost too nicely as he seemed to tip it off. He nails Gordon in the hole as Magnuson also pushes his man upfield. Kerridge kicks out someone too, if only momentarily. Braden loses Heitzman as they both move laterally behind the LOS and Heitzman is able to grab Rawls from behind as he hits the gap, preventing Rawls from being able bring his feet to truck Taylor for the TD. Heitzman looks a bit shaken up.
Not to pick on the kid, but the OL probably does enough there for Rawls to pound it in and he shows you why he's not a very good short yardage back despite his size. Hard to tell from the tight angle, but it seems he was slow getting to the hole and doesn't keep his legs pushing much after contact.
Hand off to Smith, TD
Heros: James Ross was everywhere, his instincts appear to be the genuine article. Devin looked great too, but I'm guessing the footage was selected based on his best throwing plays. Fitz looked fantastic, someone is still looking for his jock strap out there. Ojemudia and Henry also both had moments to shine, hopefully we see some contributions from these two from the rotation.
Goats: Rawls still didn't really impress on his two carries. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that his plays were selected to show off the defense, but it certainly fits his MO. The goal line play really showed this IMO. There was a visible hole there and he doesn't get there in time and doesn't do anything after contact. Miller struggled in a few plays, including getting rag dolled by James Ross once, and was visibly frustrated on a number of occasions. Funchess is still a liability in blocking, but maybe improving?
Born in 1927, Johnny Orr grew up during the Great Depression(1929-WWII). His father was a coal miner. As a senior in high school, Orr would lead the Taylorville Tornadoes to the first undefeated season in the history of Illinois high school basketball.
Taylorville's #43 Johnny Orr
He played basketball, football, and baseball for the University of Illinois before joining the Navy for the tail end of WWII. Orr played a short stint for the pre-NBA(BAA) St. Louis Bombers and Waterloo Hawks before he started working his way up through the high school coaching and assistant coaching ranks. In 1963 Orr was selected as head coach at UMass(ytUMass) whom Orr led to a 39-33 record over 3 years. Shortly thereafter he was hired as an assistant by very sussessful University of Michigan head coach Dave Strack. In 1968 Strack’s attention turned towards the business end of basketball(he resigned as head coach), and Orr was named head coach.
That's Orr to the right of President Ford
In his twelve years as head coach at the University of Michigan, Orr amassed two Big Ten Championships,
Two Big Ten Coach of the Year Awards,
one Championship appearance (they lost to an undefeated Indiana team in ’76,
but the appearance earned Orr National Coach of the Year honors) and Michigan finished first in AP and UPI rankings the following year. Orr remains Michigan’s “winningest” coach with 209 wins and 113 losses(65%).
Then after the ’79 season, Orr got a call from Iowa State’s athletic director. The Cyclones had hit a tough patch(a very long one), and Iowa State’s beautiful 15,000 seat Hilton Coliseum
sat largely empty. They wanted to hire Orr’s assistant, Bill Frieder to lead them out of their 35 year tournament drought, and they were willing to break the bank to get him.
Orr and Frieder
Remember, son of a coal miner, grew up during the Great Depression. When Orr saw that they were going to pay Frieder $45,000 a year base salary(Orr was making $33k at Michigan) he decided to take the job himself. With radio and television shows and a basketball camp, Orr became the “highest paid college basketball coach in America”.
Orr turned a miserable Iowa State program into a respectable one, earning 6 NCAA Tournament births and 218 wins in his 14 years as Iowa State head coach. He coached several NBA players, namely Jeff Hornacek(of the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz)
as well as Iowa State’s current coach, Fred Hoiberg.
Mostly, Orr brought excitement(and crowds) back to Ames, Iowa and the Hilton Colliseum. They have earned a reputation as giant killers on their own court(namely #3 Missouri in ’89,
a 39 game home winning streak ending in 02, and a 22 gamer ending last year) inspiring the term “Hilton Magic”. It’s widely considered to be one of the country’s toughest venues to win in.
Michigan will play in front of 15,000 at that very location taking on the Iowa State Cyclones on November 17. This will be Michigan’s first road game, and one monster test for Derrick Walton and the Michigan Wolverines as they move past the Trey Burke era.
When last we met: Two years ago Jordan Morgan exploded for 16 points on 7-10 shooting to defeat the cyclones 76-66 in Crisler Arena.
Hardaway had 19 points, Burke had 13, and Zack Novak pulled down 11 rebounds. Royce White(formally Houston Rockets and now Philadelphia 76’ers) went for 22 and 13, and Chris Allen(former Spartan) scored 11 points and dropped 5 dimes. Just for nostalgia’s sake, Evan Smotrycz had 8 points and 7 boards in 22 Minutes.
You are missed Evan.
Last year Iowa State defeated Notre Dame to advance to the 3’rd round of the NCAA tournament, losing by a last second Aaron Craft 3 pointer to Ohio State.
The Cyclones went 23-12(11-7 Big 12) beating #13 Oklahoma State and #11 Kansas State(both at home).
Exactly two of the players Michigan faced in 2011 are still on the team. 6-6 Forward Melvin Ejim played 19 Minutes against the maize and blue and went 0-5 with two turnovers.
Last year as a junior he nearly averaged a double double with 11 points and 9 rebounds.
6-1 Guard Bubu Palo played 14 minutes against Michigan and scored 4 points with 2 turnovers.
This was likely the high point of his career. He missed most of his redshirt sophomore year with a broken wrist, and most of his redshirt junior year while he was fighting sexual abuse charges(which were dropped).
All four of Iowa State’s guards(4 of their 6 core players) ran out of eligibility in the offseason. MSU castoff point guard Korie Lucious
They made Payne and Appling CAPTAINS…what could he possibly have done to get kicked off the team?
took his 10 points(6 of them from deep at 37%) and 6 assists to…Yeah, I don’t care either. How do all these guys end up at Iowa State anyway? At any rate, he gone. 6-7 guard Will Clyburn
(15pts 7rebounds). He gone. 6-2 sharp shooter Tyus McGee
(13 points, 9 of them from downtown at a ridiculous 46%). Gone. 6-5 lock down defender Chris Babb
(9pts, 6 of them from deep at 35%) You guessed it. Gone.
Aside from Mel Ejim, their only real returning contributor is 6-7 super sophomore forward
Georges Niang who kicked in 12 points and 5 boards as a rookie.
So how do they replace all that production? They start by robbing the mid-majors blind. Former Marshall star DeAndre Kane brings his 15 points and seven assists over from the Thundering Herd. Cyclone fans are hoping his shot selection has improved for his year of graduate school eligibility.
They also recruited a great four star 6-3 shooting guard named Matt Thomas.
He’s regarded as one of the best pure shooters in his class, and much like our own Nik he’s “not just a shooter”. Reportedly he has a good handle and passing skills too. They also brought in a couple of familiar faces. Four star 6-2 pure passing point guard Monte Morris
Why do I hear Sam Webb's voice every time I see his name?
out of Flint brings his great handle and iffy jumper to Ames. Three Star Detroit Pershing Doughboy(miss you Deshawn) 6-4 athlete Sherron Dorsey-Walker
comes off his redshirt season. Cyclone fans hope he is ready to drive and defend.
Michigan will obviously be breaking in some new players themselves. And Iowa State returns a lot of their rebounding from a squad that outperformed their opponents by 4 boards a game last year. But for Iowa State to defeat the Wolverines this year Matt Thomas is going to have to have the game of his life. Maybe they’ve had some shooters hiding on the bench these last few years, but from what I can tell they may have a hard time spreading the floor. With McGary, GRIII, Morgan, Horford and even Bielfeldt
this is the deepest, most talented and dynamic Michigan frontcourt we’ve seen since Chris and Juwan. I don’t know that the Cyclones will have an advantage at any position on the court. However, Iowa State remains a division 1 team with some young talent playing at home in one of the toughest venues in America so…
Prediction based on some notes I scribbled on a napkin:
Michigan 74, Iowa State 70