Michigan Hockey: WMU Preview

#4 Western Michigan (5-0-3) at #3 Michigan (6-1-1)

11/04/11 7:35 pm(Fox Sports)

11/05/11 7:35 pm(Fox Sports)

 

 

 

Forward overview:

Name	Scoring Line	SOG	+/-	PIMS
Chase Balisy	3-6-9	13	+5	6
Shane Berschbach	4-4-8	12	+4	10
Dane Walters	3-4-7	17	+7	4
David Kallip	2-3-5	6	+3	2
Ian Slater	1-4-5	16	+6	4
Trevor Elias	4-0-4	15	+6	0
Greg Squires	2-2-4	24	+3	8
Ben Warda	1-2-3	12	+2	6

 

Highlights that can be linked or embedded are hard to come by right now. We have two choices, video from someones personal camera or a media player that crashes my computer. So getting an idea of how good a team looks is difficult when all you have is stats. On paper they are good but not great with a sweep over NMU and two ties over Union. The difference between WMU and the other teams we have played so far is scoring is more balanced, because they have other options outside of the top line. Offensively they get it done as a team and not with a single individual, coming in with the 13^th best offense in the Nation. Chase Balisy is the scoring leader and the only forward on the roster who has been drafted (6^th round), but Andy Murray is getting the most out of a group of players who know one cared about because he can actually coach hockey, unlike his predecessor hockey GERG.

 

 

Defensive Overview:

Name	Scoring Line	SOG	+/-	PIMS
Matt Tennyson	2-3-5	24	+7	6
Garrett Haar	1-3-4	12	+9	6
Dennis Brown	0-3-3	9	+4	2
Luke Witkowski	0-2-2	10	+3	25
Jordan Oesterle	0-2-2	7	+4	0

 

This should look familiar, because this group is just like what we saw with Ferris last week. We have another group of blueliners who don't have much of an offensive contribution but play very solid on defense. WMU comes into the series ranked 4^th allowing 1.62 goals per game, however I feel that this team could really struggle against us because of the offense ineptitude. They kind of remind me of the 3-Point shooter who can't make a shot and won't stop shooting. I really do believe that this unit has to play a perfect game to have any chance of slowing us down, we played the #1 ranked defense last week and scored nine goals.

 

Goales:

Name	GP	MIN	GA	GAA AVG	SV	SV%	W-L
Nick Pisellini	4	249:40	7	1.68	94	.931	2-0-2
Frank Slubowski	4	245:24	6	1.47	67	.918	3-0-1

 

Of all the undefeated goalies we have faced this season we finally have two who don't look like Venza Trophy winners on paper, the GAA is very good but the SV% is not. It will be interesting to see how Murry chooses to approach this series, because Slubowski has not looked good at all. Either way Michigan should be able to put pressure on the Broncos goaltenders.

 

Michigan

 

Forward Overview:

Name	Scoring Line	SOG	+/-	PIMS
Lindsay Sparks	5-6-11	19	+7	2
David Wohlberg	3-6-9	19	+6	0
A.J. Treais	4-3-7	20	+7	4
Chris Brown	2-5-7	14	+3	14
Phil Di Giuseppe	5-2-7	20	+7	4
Travis Lynch	3-3-6	12	+7	0
Luke Glendening	4-1-5	18	+8	6
Luke Moffatt	1-3-4	14	+6	15
Zach Hyman	1-3-4	12	+2	2

 

Nothing wrong with this group, they still score whenever they want and look great doing it. Maybe I'm going to far here but the way this team is scoring is exactly how last years team tried to do it and could not. Eventually the finesse will have to stop because it won't work all season, but for now the nasty between the legs passes are working perfectly so why stop? There was some degree of fear going into the Ferris series that scoring would diminish, and they responded by pounding the nations best defense and penalty kill. Seriously these guys are sicker than even the biggest Michigan homer could have predicted. Phil Di Giuseppe, you are insane. Congratulations on being named CCHA Rookie of the Month.

 

Defensive Overview:

 

Name	Scoring Line	SOG	+/-	PIMS
Lee Moffie	1-5-6	13	+11	6
Mac Bennett	0-6-6	15	+7	2
Greg Pateryn	2-4-6	20	+5	2
Kevin Clare	0-1-1	2	+4	0
Brennen Serville	0-3-3	4	+2	0
Mike Chiasson	0-3-3	2	+12	2

 

Still an above average group but the WTF moments are still there. Obviously the heat is on Kevin Clare but I have seen more glaring mistakes from our other veterans. Also watching the highlights I didn't see the defense make very many mistakes at all, but instead it was the forwards being out of position. As usual Mike Chaiasson and Lee Moffie are exceeding expectations and everyone else is where we thought they would be. Position is huge right now, an offense that has players who can move without the puck will continue to destroy us. Too many times this season a defensemen was caught watching the puck only to have the opponents forward slide in behind him for an easy score. The good news is that isn't as noticeable because Hunwick is awesome.

 

Goalies

Name	GP	MIN	GA	GAA	SV	SV%	W-L
Shawn Hunwick	7	376:29	10	1.59	164	.943	5-0-1

 

Still awesome and recently named CCHA Goalie of the Month, Hunwick is planted among the Nations elite. Coming into the series he is ranked 3^rd in GAA AVG, and 2^nd in SV%.

 

Worthless Prediction

Seeing as how both times I have been wrong, I'm hesitant to make a prediction. I know that we are better in all phases of the game, and we are also holding the longest home winning streak in program history. With those factors I'm comfortable saying we can sweep, but last time I said that the series ended 0-1-1. I have to get it once right?

 

(Note: I originally emailed this to Ace for his use in his weekly scouting report.  He encouraged me to post it here as a separate thread - so here it is.)

E.J. Levenberry, Jr. (Class of 2013 Michigan Offer)

Player Profile:

- Position: OLB for C.D. Hylton High School, Woodbridge, VA (record 9-0)

- Personal Info:  Listed as 6'3", Looked more like 6'2" with cleats on.  His weight is listed as 230.  He might be that big but looked leaner to me. I'm guessing closer to 210-215.  Definitely has the frame to put on more weight/muscle.

- Current Offers: Everyone. Michigan, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Auburn, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, et al.

- Profile Pages: ESPN , Scout, Rivals

Game Notes:

- Game: 28 OCT 11 played versus Potomac High School, Woodbridge, VA (record 3-6)

- Outcome: Levenberry's Hylton High won 19-7.

- Weather: Game day was miserable.  Drizzly rain for the entire game with temps in the mid- to low-forties.

- Levenberry Stats for Game: ~8-9 solo tackles, ~4 assists (a lot in traffic), 1 sack, 1 interception, 2 dropped interceptions, 2 other pass breakups (one was probably not catchable), 1 incomplete pass thrown to him on offense (got a hand on it but was a bad pass).

- Story on the game: http://www2.insidenova.com/sports/2011/oct/29/hylton-improves-9-0-win-over-potomac-ar-1419235/

On Defense:

- Played the SAM linebacker in their base 4-3 set.  Played as one of two up linebackers when they went to 5 down linemen.

- Was the leader of the defense and took the play calls from the sideline.  That said, he didn't show consistent enthusiasm and I wouldn't say he was a vocal leader on either side of the ball.

- Showed good lateral movement and was usually around the ball even when he wasn't making a tackle.  Had good but not great speed vertically.

- Was very good in coverage and primarily dropped into zone coverage on passing downs.  He had one interception and dropped two others - should have had at least one of those two.  Very rarely blitzed. 

- Seemed to work his way through traffic well and was usually able to shed blocks when anyone got to him.  When there was a tackle made, he was usually in the mix.  Potomac didn't have any designed runs toward his side of the field but did have a few cut backs that went toward him.

- Showed good tackling technique.  He didn't miss any tackles that he had a chance on.  Wrapped up well in tackling but no big hits on running plays.

- In pass defense, he did have a few big hits.  One tackle sent the receiver about five yards out of bounds.

- Seemed to slow up on some running plays when they didn't go toward him.  However, made a lot of stops between the tackles from his OLB position.

On Offense:
- They used him as a blocking tight end for rushing downs (which, given the weather, was about two thirds of the time). No stats on offense with exception of the one pass that he didn't/couldn't catch.

Game Recap:
- Neither team played particularly well on offense.  The weather was horrible and the offenses couldn't put anything together.

- Game was very chippy.  I counted about 10 personal fouls spread out over the game.  One memorable set included three personal/unsportsmanlike conduct fouls against Hylton on one play - one on the players, then one on the sideline for protesting, then another one on the players when they protested the first two (45 yards total).  Added to this were a whole host of holding and offsides plays on both teams.  Both teams had multiple long runs called back due to holds.  During the post-game handshakes, a brawl broke out.  In fact, the police were summoned but nothing came of it.  Levenberry was in the mix (whole team was) but I don't think he was one of the instigators.

- A defensive game throughout. The score, such as it was, implies more offense than what actually occurred.  In fact, there was really only one touchdown (from Hylton) that was primarily the result of the offense.  One Hylton touchdown was the result of two back-to-back personal fouls that got them deep into Potomac territory. Another Hylton touchdown was the result of a pick six.  The only Potomac touchdown was the result of a recovered fumble on the Hylton 1-yard line after the three personal foul escapade drove Hylton back inside their five.  

Player Impact:
Levenberry made big plays when his team needed it most.  His two biggest plays - the interception and sack - both stopped likely scoring chances for Potomac.  The sack came when Potomac was on the Hylton five yard line and looking like it might actually score a touchdown.  Levenberry came on a rare blitz that got home for about a ten yard loss.  One of his teammates then got another sack which drove them back seven more yards.  The drive ended with an interception. No points.

Levenberry's interception came late in the game when it looked like Potomac might actually string a drive  together and make it close.  Obviously, no points on that drive.

He was just okay on offense.  Didn't really block particularly well but was serviceable.  Couldn't pull in the only pass thrown to him.  Just seemed kind of disinterested on offense.  He is going to be a linebacker in college and that is where he put in the most consistent effort.

Overall:

Levenberry was clearly the best player for either team on the field.  He made consistent stops in the running game; played excellent pass defense when he dropped back into the zone; and came up with big plays to stop drives when his team needed it.  He seems to have good instincts for the ball which was displayed in the pass defense and also usually being in the right place during running plays.  He seems to have enormous potential and his game clearly shows why he is generating such early interest.  Has the size, skills, and instincts to develop into an outstanding linebacker at the next level.

 

A few pictures of Levenberry (#10) (apologies for my crappy camera):

[Disclaimers: Observed the player for only one game, so small sample size applies.  All notes are my thoughts and not drawn from any scouting reports. I have no association with the player or program, either. I'm just a U-M fan in a locale that I know our scouting experts can't normally get to.]

MICHIGAN FOOTBALL DEPTH BY CLASS
Position	#	Freshmen (c/o 2016)	Sophomores (c/o 2015)	Juniors (c/o 2014)	Seniors (c/o 2013)
QB	3	R. Bellomy*	D. Gardner*		D. Robinson
RB	6	J. Hayes*	T. Rawls	F. Toussaint* S. Hopkins	M. Cox* V. Smith
WR	3		J. Robinson*	J. Jackson	D. Stonum*
Slot	4			J. Gallon* D. Dileo	R. Roundtree* T. Robinson*
TE	2		R. Miller*		B. Moore*
OT	2			M. Schofield* T. Lewan*
OG	4	C. Bryant*			P. Omameh* R. Barnum* E. Mealer*
C	2	J. Miller*			R. Khoury*
DT	4		R. Ash* K. Wilkens*	Q. Washington*	W. Campbell
DE	5	C. Rock* K. Heitzman*	B. Beyer	J. Black	C. Roh
LB	10	A. Poole*	J. Ryan* J. Paskorz* D. Morgan F. Clark	I. Bell* C.Gordon* M. Jones*	K. Demens* B. Hawthorne
CB	6	D. Hollowell* R. Taylor*	B. Countess	C. Avery T. Talbott	J.T. Floyd*
SS	3	T. Carter*		M. Robinson	J.Kovacs*
FS	2		J. Furman*	T. Gordon*
P/K	3		M. Wile	B. Gibbons* W. Hagerup

 

SCHOLARSHIP COUNT: 59

Current Commits: 23

Unrenewed 5th Years: 1 (M. Cox)

Transfer: 1 (?)

 

OPEN SLOTS: 5

 

GO BLUE!

Maybe it won't be like last time...

 

(edit: Embed fail http://youtu.be/Qpux-Drk6EY?t=37s)

And even if it is, maybe that's not such a bad thing. Ok? ... Ok.

There was something rather familiar about Saturdays' game against Purdue. For the first time in a long time, that felt like "Michigan fergodsakes!" There was just something about the way we dominated and put the game away.  It brought back my idealized memories of how Michigan would roll over the rabble of the big ten in year's past.

I enrolled at Michigan in the fall of 1995, Lloyd Carr's first year. And of the 40 odd games that I've attended in person, all but 2 were under his direction.  

This wasn't cupcake nonconference, this wasn't baby seal U, this wasn't even one of the worst Minnesota teams in the last half century.  This was a normal, lower tier big ten team that was coming off a victory over a previously ranked team.  And they had maybe 4 or 5 good plays against us all game.  (the screen TD, Denard's INT, the transcontinental to Siller, and maybe you count the final TD and their QB scramble).  

The game wasn't as close as the score.  Take away their garbage time TD, and give us another 11 points if we execute a little better on the goal line and we're talking about a 40 point blow out.  

But it's not just the score that made me reminisce on the Lloyd days. It was the way we did it; we just had better athletes.  And we used that advantage to make  the game boring.  Even though the lead was only 3 possessions, by the middle of the 3rd quarter there was absolutely no drama left that we might blow the game.  And it's been a long time since I've felt that way when we've played a bigten team.  I guess the Minnesota game didn't make me feel that because they didn't feel like a bigten team, and we were still scoring points. By the time the 4th quarter started on Saturday,  I was thinking we'd only get 2 more possessions since we were grinding the clock out so fast.  

I actually fell asleep before the game finished, (granted that was about 4 am local time and my BAC was significant).  When I woke up, I had the rest of the day to ponder, 'do I like boring old Michiganfergodsakes?'

Was it really so bad?

Towards the end of the Lloyd years, we had grown accustomed to 9 and 10 win seasons and a bowl loss.  And frankly we were bored with them.  We had become frustrated with having a roster full of NFL talent that would only call dive plays once we had a double digit lead.  And then 7-5 came, and we called it "the year of infinite pain".  Oh summer child, what did we know of pain?  Little did we know that Richrod was coming.  

After the Horror, it was pretty clear that Lloyd's retirement was somewhat of a mutual split between him and the fanbase.  I freely admit that I was fed up, and wanted change.  You can count me amongst those that wanted RR to succeed.

In a way, I loved Lloyd.  I still think he's a great role model.  If I ever have a son, I would point at Lloyd as someone he should look up to. But toward's the end, I thought that his risk aversion and gameday decision making was impairing our ability to win big games.  

There's been a lot of harsh words directed at Lloyd in light of the revelations in John Bacon's book.  I don't believe he acted maliciously. I hope not, anyway. I just think Lloyd was just being Lloyd.  He never liked the spotlight, and he resented the media.  This was apparent from his first news conference (which, if anyone has video of this, I'd love to see it again) in the wake of Moeller's firing.  

I like to believe that he was just trying to be loyal to his players.  From a program perspective, that might have been a mistake.  Ok, it was definitely bad for the program.  And the program needed someone to be like Bo, to be the face of the university, to force people to work things out.  But that's not who Lloyd was, it just wasn't in his DNA.  

The details seem to get lost in history.  People forget that things started kinda shaky in '95 and '96.  We lost 4 games both years (just one less than the 'year of infinite pain').  And then came the miracle year of 97, and Lloyd could never live up to that standard again.  It's like when poor married couples go on an expensive, once in a lifetime honeymoon, all the sex after that just seems a little bit pale in comparison.  

Do we really want to go down that road again?

I admit it, I wanted the hot young model.  I think Jim Harbaugh would have been very successful as a head coach here.  He would have been fiery, and dramatic, and when we finally score 48 points on OSU, he'd have gone for 2.  But Harbaugh probably would have gotten bored with us and ran off to the pro's while he still had his looks.  So maybe it's better this way.  Maybe someday he'll get tired of that and be ready to settle into a comfy college job.  

Until then we've got Hoke.  Brady Hoke and his magical golden poop.  (From top to bottom, I can't remember the bigten ever being weaker.  Bigten teams are going to get smashed come bowl time.)  Hoke fits like a comfortable old shoe.  But he's not the old shoe.  He's not kicking field goals on 4th and inches.  He's like that old shoe, but back when it had fresh treads.  

And then I realized, it's not about da shoes.  The thing that changed was me.  I'm ready to go back to 9-3 season's again.  I'm willing to tolerate 8-4 years if they're balanced with 10-2.  I might even be able to stomach the very infrequent 7-5 year if it's offset with a couple 11-1's and 12-0's.  And I don't need last second comeback drives against Indiana to be entertained.  Saturday's stomping of Purdue was boring, and entertaining, and filled with more satisfaction than I've felt in years.

Play it again, Sam. 

So it's week 9, the 8th game of the year, and we're starting to develop some patterns.  If you were to blindfold me and make me predict what's going to happen next week, I could just think about this week and rattle off:

• Mike Martin makes a big play
• Craig Roh makes a mistake, but then makes a big play
• Kovacs makes a big play
• Jake Ryan has a mental breakdown and loses contain
• Jake Ryan blows someone up in the backfield
• A CB misses a tackle
• Molk makes a great block
• Denard has a sweet run
• Denard has a horrible interception
• XXXX receiver fights for a jump ball or adjusts to the under thrown bomb
• Vincent is wide open for a throwback screen. 
• The defense causes a couple of flukeyish takeaways. 

And you could probably run that against most of our games this year and not be very far off.  The lack of a Vincent screen and a successful jumpball against MSU could easily be blamed for the score deficit of two weeks ago.  

The major differences this week were the reverses and the excellent production from the Tailback position.  

Let's see that again. 

Bad Roh, Good Roh

I've been bitching about our lack of a bubblescreen, because it's a simple fucking play, that works.  Especially if you get a favorable matchup with personnel. 

On Purdue's first drive, they've got Craig Roh lined up against the slot man.  Even though he's into the boundary, he's not going to win a footrace to the sideline. 

They only need 3 yards for the first down, and with the Corner playing 8 yards off, the bubble screen is a nearly automatic 5 yards unless the man in Roh's position has a lot more speed in space than Craig.  

He's thinking about his flat responsibility in the zone, but what he should be thinking is that he's got to get out to that 2nd man and ignore the blocker.  

JT Floyd, doesn't use his hands well enough and lets the blocker get into his body, Roh is almost in position to make a play, but he's taking a bad angle.  

Defensive snapshots where more than one defender is on the ground and the ball carrier is hopping past them, are never good for the defense. Morgan is also taking a bad angle and is barely there in time to escort the WR out of bounds after a huge gain. 

But when Purdue tried to come back to it on their next drive, we played it much better.

Here's our first appearance of golden poop.  We're futzing around with flip-flopping the D-line and Roh is getting a late start.  But because he's still running to get in position when the ball is snapped, he's got momentum built up and quickly gets out on the receivers.

This time Floyd does a better job of taking on the blocker and forcing the play back inside. 

With Roh in position and Floyd not getting knocked on his ass, the pursuit closes off any cutbacks and the ballcarrier has no place to go.  

Mike Martin : Bruce Banner mode

The difference between a good athlete and a great football player is understanding the game. Mike Martin destroys this outside zone read because he recognizes the blocking assignments.

If you haven't watched the excellent (if somewhat corny) video by fishduck, you should check it out. The RB is next to QB so this should be an outside zone play.  The O-line all slant to the wideside of the field.  If the RB can get to the corner, he should get about 7-10 yards with good blocking as everyone is accounted for except the deep safety. Martin has seen this in practice about a zillion times from the Richrod days and beats his man to the spot and gets penetration. For Oregon, this is no problem, because the cutback is just as good as the designed play.  

But Martin sees the cutback and tosses his man to the side so he can come back underneath and make the tackle.   Our LB's are actually a little slow to react and would have been in trouble if the RB had continued to bounce it outside.  

If it weren't for Martin, this play has a decent design to pick up lots of yards.  The guards are scraping off their initial reach blocks and releasing to the 2nd level.  Roh is unblocked because it's expected that the QB fake will hold him in position.  If the center and left tackle had gotten better blocks, this play gets an easy first down.  But Heimerdinger beats his block too. 

So the three of them converge to make the gang tackle.  

Mike Martin: Getting Angry...

On the safety, Martin had to fight through a hold to get the sack.  (and a bit of facemask)

Mike Martin: Hulk Smash! mode

Before we even get to halftime its apparent that the Boiler's can't block Martin one on one, so they keep in the RB to help out.

Martin uses his hands so well.  He does an outside move on the left guard and gets by him easily.

The RB sees him come free and moves to pick him up.

When you're a little guy, trying to block a much bigger man, they teach you to go low. 

Because this is what happens if you don't go low. 

You get sent airborne. 

and knocked back 4 yards, (or more if those other guys hadn't been there)

This other angle shows how badly off balance this guy gets knocked back.  

Bad Tackling, Good Tackling

Late in the 4th quarter, both starting cornerbacks were in the game when most other starters had left the field.  You gotta think that's partly because of a lack of depth at DB, and partly because they both weren't very great at run support or tackling.  

On the long screen for a TD, Countess was the only man with a chance to make the play, and he missed. 

But I don't really blame him.  We got caught in a blitz.  This play was always going to be a touchdown unless one of the blockers completely whiffed.  

Which almost happened. Blake does a good job to slip the block. 

But the blocker had gotten just enough of him to prevent him from making the shoestring tackle.  They say football is a game of inches. There's about 6 inches standing between a 5 yard gain and a 50 yard TD. 

There's better examples of DB's (mostly Floyd) not breaking down to make the tackle, or not coming up aggressively enough in run support.  By I'd rather show them an example of what you're supposed to do.

On this kickoff, Morgan does a great job of taking on the blocker

And then he disengages to make the tackle.

He hits the ball carrier right in the midsection with perfect form and wraps up and holds on until help arrives. 

I'll take "improved running game" for $100, Alex

So, it's just Purdue, but that's what I call manball. And it started with our first play from scrimmage. 

Purdue has an alignment problem because they didn't pick up the unbalanced line.  This might be the first time we've used it extensively this year.  

The end is left unblocked because he has to respect Denard on the bootleg.  This is fine as long as the guy isn't fast enough to tackle Denard before he can make the handoff (like what MSU did to TSIO). So we've got two pulling lineman and a fullback giving us a huge numbers advantage on the play side.

We get a good kickout block, and Molk does an excellent job of peeling back to get the linebacker.  Hopkins is leading through the hole like any good fullback. 

Fullback is a deceptively skilled position.  You've got to be able to read the hole like a TB and then be both fast enough to get to the block, and big enough to make the block.  Here, Hopkins has to choose which of the free men to block.  If he picks the linebacker, that ensures a solid gain and puts Fitz one-on-one with the safety with room to make a move.  If he thinks the LB won't make the play then he should block the safety which often leads to long TD runs. 

He chooses to go after the safety, which I think is the right choice.  But without eyes in the back of his head, he doesn't realize that Fitz is making a beeline towards the sideline. 

So he ends up not blocking anybody. 

And he knows he's got to hit SOMEBODY.  That coulda been a TD.(probably not, as the WR didn't sustain his block). 

To the house!

So, did Fitz and Shaw perform a Vulcan mind meld during the bye week?  If so, it worked.  Fitz was bouncing the play outside all day, and Shaw had what I think is his best run of the year by busting through the line.  Someone mentioned that Purdue has a better than average interior D-line (i guess) which would explain some of the bouncing outside.  But who told Shaw he could run through tackles?

On this Denard fake jetsweep counter pitch, the boilers are in good position to stop the play for a moderate gain.  But they've got two guys who are jogging around waiting for the play to develop instead of attacking the LOS. *cough*JTFloyd*cough*. But look at Molk, He's not really designed to be in this play, he's just hustling to make a block.  

Fitz is reading the play and sees the defenders over-run it, so he cuts back. .  #3 is in pursuit and should close off the cutback. But Molk and now #75 are following the play. 

Fitz sees the two unblocked defenders and breaks down to make a move.  

It's just at that moment that Molk catches up and gets a twofer. Schofield is also making himself useful by getting in the way of the pursuit.    

#2 is in good position to make the stop, but his momentum is in the wrong direction as Fitz is now running against the grain. 

But here's the amazing part.  When he sees the lane open up in the middle, he just turns on the jets. 

This is the speed we haven't really seen from Fitz on the field.  Maybe reports of him being dinged up were true and now he's finally healthy. (He should be after having 3 weeks off). 

Shaw's TD came from some improvisation on a simple lead dive. 

The boiler DT get's a good push up front to disrupt the play. Hopkins has to help block him instead of getting to the free linebacker.  Odoms is coming around for the end around fake that will hold the unblocked end. 

Shaw sees that the play side is clogged up, so he cuts back.  So now he has to deal with an unblocked safety instead of an unblocked LB => more yards.  

The right guard doesn't get the best of blocks and his man starts coming off of him to make the tackle.  But Shaw sees just enough daylight to make him decide to accelerate through the hole. 

Normally, this is where Shaw falls down for a minimal gain, but on this play he keeps his balance.

And he shows off a little leg strength to fight through the contact. 

Then he does what he does best and shows off his top gear outracing the defender to the pylon.  

I know I've been critical of him on this blog, but that's because he's very frustrating.  Physically he's got all the tools to be a great back, ala Chris Perry.  His vision might be half a notch down, and I haven't seen him much in the passing game.  But he's got the speed, and if he learned how to harness his talents, he could be making runs like this on a regular basis.  Anyway, this was a great run. 

ETC:

• The defense is playing so much better than last year.  But the last two games have seen waaaaaay too many arm tackles.  I'm not liking that. 
• One game is not a season.  Playcalling vs. Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue was great, creative, and effective.  Playcalling vs. MSU, eh ... not so much. I hope this isn't establishing a trend where we have zany fun stuff against Iowa and Illinois and go into a shell against NE and TSIO. 
• Rocketman! I didn't notice the helmet on the low quality streams

• The theme for homecoming was something about space, and the wavefield got some love on TV. That wavefield was like a 2nd home for me for 3 years. 

• Obligatory. 

Another Non-Fumble: Last week in the post "Turnover Analysis: Fumbles, Forced Fumbles and Backward Passes" I also talked about when a fumble is not a fumble. There was another one in the Purdue game. At 11:36 of the first quarter, it was 1-10 for M on the Purdue 41. DRob dropped the snap, immediately picked it up and started running. In the judgment of the official statistician, this "had no effect on continuing action" and, therefore, is not included as a fumble in the stats.

Synopsis for Turnovers: For the third game this year, Michigan had a negative TOM (-1.0) but won the game (SDSU and NW were the other two). For the year, Michigan has lost 14 TOs (ranked #57) but has gained 20 TOs (ranked #12) for a turnover margin of +6 or 0.75 per game (ranked #18). Michigan is ranked #3 in fumbles lost but is #108 in interceptions thrown. The 14 fumbles recovered is ranked #1 and is the reason the turnover margin is excellent instead of horrible.

DRob had another interception and Gardner had his first interception for the year. DRob now has 11 TD passes and 11 Interceptions. Avery intercepted a Purdue pass to add to this scoop & score in the Minnesota game. There are 17 different defensive players that have either forced a fumble, recovered a fumble, or intercepted a pass.

Synopsis for Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Obviously, when the winning team has a negative TOM, turnovers did not impact which team won the game.

(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)

National Rankings: Remember the chart and table below includes the WMU game and will NOT be the same as the (incorrect) NCAA Rankings.

The Gory Details

Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).

Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.

Here are the details for the game.

The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.

The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.

Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.

 

What a week. Top 10 teams Clemson, Michigan State and Kansas State lost; Stanford and Arkansas survived scares on the road. Michigan State’s loss now means they no longer control their own destiny, and that Nebraska is in the driver’s seat. And the Big Ten Leaders Division? Penn State is on top, at least for the next two weeks.

For you sports gamblers out there:

Rank	Team	ATS Overall	ATS Favorite	ATS Dog		Record
1	LSU	6-2	5-2	1-0		8-0
2	Alabama	7-1	7-1	0-0		8-0
3	Oklahoma State	7-1	6-1	1-0		8-0
4	Stanford	7-1	7-1	0-0		8-0
5	Boise State	4-3	4-3	0-0		7-0
6	Oregon	4-4	4-4	0-0		7-1
7	Oklahoma	5-3	5-3	0-0		7-1
8	Arkansas	4-4	3-3	1-1		7-1
9	Nebraska	3-5	3-4	0-1		7-1
10	South Carolina	3-4-1	3-4-1	0-0		7-1
11	Clemson	7-2	6-2	1-0		8-1
12	Virginia Tech	2-7	2-7	0-0		8-1
13	Michigan	6-2	5-1	1-1		7-1
14	Houston	6-2	6-2	0-0		8-0
15	Michigan State	5-3	3-1	2-2		6-2
16	Penn State	2-7	2-6	0-1		8-1
17	Kansas State	6-2	2-1	4-1		7-1
18	Georgia	5-2-1	5-1	0-1-1		6-2
19	Wisconsin	5-3	5-3	0-0		6-2
20	Arizona State	4-4	3-3	1-1		6-2
21	USC	5-3	3-2	2-1		6-2
22	Georgia Tech	5-3-1	4-2-1	1-1		7-2
23	Cincinnati	5-2	4-1	1-1		6-1
24	West Virginia	4-4	3-3	1-1		6-2
25	Auburn	4-5	1-2	3-3		6-3

 

The Top 25 teams were 9-11 ATS last week, with last week’s Top 10 teams going 0-6. To date, current top 10 teams are 50-28-1 ATS (63.9% success rate; 3-2 as underdogs) and current top 25 teams are 121-79-3 ATS (60.3% success rate; 20-16-1 as underdogs).

 

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at a sure-fire favorite and attempt to preview the Michigan game.

Be sure to check out my blog, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

@ UCLA (4-4) +5.5 California (4-4). Result: UCLA 31 California 14.

Ball State (5-4) +11.5 @ Western Michigan (5-4). Result: Western Michigan 45 Ball State 35 [Props to SoCalWolverine for correctly predicting Ball State would cover].

Louisiana-Lafayette (7-2) +3.0 @ Middle Tennessee (2-5). Result: Louisiana-Lafayette 45 Middle Tennessee 20 [Props to Picktown GoBlue for correctly predicting Louisiana-Lafayette would cover].

Losses

NC State (4-4) +19.5 @ Florida State (5-3). Result: Florida State 34 NC State 0.

Navy (2-6) +20.5 @ Notre Dame (5-3). Result: Notre Dame 56 Navy 14.

Bowling Green (4-5) -4.5 @ Kent State (2-6). Result: Kent State 27 Bowling Green 15.

@ Michigan (7-1) -13.5 Purdue (4-4). Result: Michigan 36 Purdue 14 [Props to SoCalWolverine, One Inch Woody, jjlenny3, and Lord Maker for correctly predicting Michigan would cover].

 

Poster Picks

Jjlenny3 returned this week, with a pair of wins in addition to Michigan, (1) West Virginia (-6.5; 41-31) and (2) Air Force (-30.5; 42-0).

Trebor also rode West Virginia to victory.

Number 7 picked up a pair of wins, too, taking Illinois (+5; 7-10) and Georgia Tech (+4; 31-17).

This Week

Looks like from this point out college football can be had on Tuesdays through Saturdays. I’ll be there to witness week 10 kickoff, with Northern Illinois visiting Toledo (7:00 PM EST/ESPN2/ESPN3). Another MAC clash on Wednesday night, with Temple visiting Ohio University (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3). On Thursday there is a matchup of disappointments, with Boston College playing host to Florida State (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3) and Virginia visiting Miami (FL) (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). On Friday, USC visits Colorado – Colorado is looking to snap a six game losing streak -  (9:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3) and Central Michigan visits Kent State, with the loser being eliminated from the postseason (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN2/ESPN3).

Games involving two top 25 teams doesn’t take place until the evening, with (#9) South Carolina visiting (#7) Arkansas (7:15 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3); Arkansas has won four of the last five meetings. (#14) Kansas State continues their murderer’s row stretch, visiting (#3) Oklahoma State (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN2/ESPN3); Kansas State has lost three of the last four, before that, Kansas State had won nine straight. Finally, the top two teams in the nation meet, in what is a BCS Title elimination game, with the consolation prize likely being a Sugar Bowl trip – (#1) LSU visits Bryant Denny Stadium, for a showdown with (#2) Alabama (8:00 PM/EST/CBS).

Upset Watch

@ Kentucky (3-5) +1.0 Ole Miss (2-6). The Wildcats are 118^th in total offense (78^th rushing, 115^th passing); Ole Miss is 115^th (93^rd rushing, 105^th passing). Kentucky is 67^th in total defense (100^th rushing, 22^nd passing); the Rebels are 104^th (116^th rushing, 50^th passing). The team who rushes for more yards is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Since 2003, Kentucky has averaged just over 2 conference wins per season and 3.75 home wins. The last time Kentucky didn’t have at least two home wins was 2001. Kentucky finishes with Tennessee at home. Kentucky isn’t a very good team, but neither is Ole Miss. In the five of the last seven seasons Ole Miss has had one or zero road wins (two and three road wins in the others); the Rebels last road conference win was week four of 2009. Since 2006, Ole Miss is 4-16 in SEC road games (9-11 ATS); Kentucky is 7-13 in SEC home games (8-12 ATS). Take Kentucky to win.

Washington State (3-5) +10.0 @ California (4-4)The Cougars are 32^nd in total offense (95^th rushing, 10^th passing); California is 46^th (80^th rushing, 27^th passing). Washington State is 84^th in total defense (61^st rushing, 100^th passing); the Golden Bears are 33^rd (51^st rushing, 32^nd passing). Washington State is 5-3 ATS this season; California is 3-5. Washington State Coach Paul Wulff is 3-29 SU in PAC-12 play, but 10-17 ATS (9-5 since last season). Washington State has lost six straight to California, and is 5-7 since 1997, but is 9-3 ATS. California should get the win, but a much improved Washington State team should keep it around a touchdown.

@ Rutgers (5-3) +2.5 South Florida (4-3). The Scarlet Knights are 97^th in total offense (111^th rushing, 56^th passing); South Florida is 14^th (27^th rushing, 26^th passing). Rutgers is 19^th in total defense (46^th rushing, 17^th passing); the Bulls are 44^th (33^rd rushing, 77^th passing). South Florida is 20-25 in the Big East (21-24 ATS), including 0-3 this season. South Florida Coach Skip Holtz was 38-27 SU at East Carolina and 38-25-1 ATS (30-12 SU in C-USA and 26-16 ATS in C-USA). Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano is 64-66 SU and 65-56-1 ATS (26-47 in Big East and 36-37 ATS in Big East). Since 2005, Rutgers is 23-23 in the Big East (23-23 ATS), including 2-2 this year. These teams have met six times since USF joined the league in 2005, with Rutgers winning four meetings, but losing last year. Rutgers is 4-2 ATS against USF with an average MOV of 9. Three of six meetings have been decided by three or less (2009, 2008, and 2005 were 31, 33, and 24 point differences, with USF only winning in 2005). Take Rutgers to cover the points, and win.

Duke (3-5) +15.0 @ Miami Florida (4-4).The Blue Devils are 73^rd in total offense (109^th rushing, 28^th passing); Miami Florida is 79^th (75^th rushing, 61^st passing). Duke is 77^th in total defense (60^th rushing, 97^th passing); the Hurricanes are 68^th (82^nd rushing, 42^nd passing). Duke hasn’t beaten Miami since 1976, losing seven straight since then. Under Coach David Cutcliff, Duke is 15-29 SU, 6-22 in the ACC (23-17-1 ATS and 14-12-1 ATS in the ACC). Since 2005, the average score has been 34.5-16. Duke is 4-2 ATS against Miami since 2005. This year, Duke is 5-3 ATS (4-2 as an underdog) and Miami is 4-4 (2-3 as a favorite). Take Duke with the points, but Miami should get the “w”.

Kansas (2-6) +14.5 @ Iowa State (4-4).The Jayhawks are 87^th in total offense (53^rd rushing, 88^th passing); Iowa State is 63^rd (43^rd rushing, 76^th passing). Kansas is 120^th in total defense (119^th rushing, 118^th passing); the Cyclones are 101^st (108^th rushing, 66^th passing). Kansas conference opponents to date are a combined 17-7 in Big 12 play; Iowa State’s are 13-13. Only two of Kansas’ four remaining games are against teams with high-powered offenses, and all are against teams with suspect defenses. Kansas Coach Turner Gill is 34-33-2 ATS and 24-21-1 ATS in conference play (7-13 at Kansas and 4-9 in the Big 12); Iowa State Coach Paul Rhodes is 17-15 ATS and 10-11 ATS in the Big 12. I’m gambling the numbers will even out here, as Kansas is 2-6 ATS and Iowa State is 4-4. Since 1997, Kansas is 8-6 SU (6-2 SU since 2003) against Iowa State and 6-7-1 ATS. The home team is 11-3 SU, but 9-4-1 ATS. Iowa State should win, but more than two touchdowns seems a bit high, especially for teams who don’t like to play defense.

 

Sure-fire Favorite

@ Oklahoma (7-1) -13.0 Texas A&M (5-3).The Sooners are 2^nd in total offense (51^st rushing, 2^nd passing); Texas A&M is 7^th (16^th rushing, 17^th passing). Oklahoma is 34^th in total defense (34^th rushing, 53^rd passing); the Aggies are 90^th (21^st rushing, 120^th passing). Oklahoma has won 10 of the last 12 meetings, with a MOV of 22 (17 if you exclude the 77-0 whitewashing in 2003). The team with more rushing yards in the game is 13-1 since 1997 (lone loss was in 2005). Texas A&M has allowed an average of 27 points/game (30.6 points/game in Big 12 play). Oklahoma has been suspect against the pass, as shown in the Florida State and Texas Tech games allowing 219 yards and 452 through the air, respectively. However, Oklahoma has averaged 46 points/game (47.2 points/game in Big 12). A&M’s secondary should get torched. The Aggies are 2-6 ATS this season; Oklahoma is 5-3. Take Oklahoma to cover.

 

Gameday Prediction

Kirk Ferentz is 94-63 straight up at Iowa. Coach Ferentz is 62-21 at home (5-0 this year), 55-45 against the Big Ten (2-2 this year), and 18-25 against the top 25. Coach Ferentz is 70-49-3 ATS and 21-13-3 as an underdog ATS at Iowa since 2001.

 

Brady Hoke is 54-51 straight up (13-12 at San Diego State, 34-38 at Ball State). Coach Hoke is 59-41-3 ATS and 31-16-2 against the spread as a favorite. 

 

Iowa’s defense is ranked 76^th (81^st passing [238.63 yards/game], 69^th rushing [163.63 yards/game]). Michigan’s offense is ranked 21^st (79^th passing [209.90 yards/game], 8^th rushing [253.29 yards/game]).

 

Iowa’s offense is ranked 57^th (50^th passing [243.50 yards/game], 60^th rushing [159.13 yards/game]). Michigan’s defense is ranked 35^th (26^th passing [196.29 yards/game], 55^th rushing [144.29 yards/game]).

 

Since 1997, Michigan is 6-4 straight up against Iowa (3-5-2 against the spread). Michigan has averaged 341.5 offensive yards (compare with 401.3 against Purdue) with 220 of those being passing (compare with 230.5 against Purdue) and 121.5 rushing (compare with 170.8 rushing against Purdue) since 1997.

 

Iowa has never beaten Michigan three straight times. In the last two years, Iowa has been +8 in the turnover margin against Michigan, result in two wins (+3 in the previous 8 meetings, with Iowa 2-6 in those games). Michigan holds a +3 turnover margin against opponents (+1 in Big Ten play); Iowa holds a +3 turnover margin as well (-1 in Big Ten play).

 

Last week, I talked about how field position would be key. Iowa ranks 100^th in terms of punt return yardage, averaging 4.86 yards returned/punt. Michigan ranks 111^th in net punting, averaging a net 32.71 yards/punt. Michigan gave up 213 yards on the ground in a loss to Michigan State, allowing 5.5 yards/carry. Iowa is led by the dangerous RB Marcus Coker (969 rushing yards, 5.3/carry, and 10 rushing TDs). QB James Vandenberg (1918 passing yards, 62.2% completion, and 17 passing TDs) has been very good, in his first year starting. The Wolverines will need to be aware where WR Marvin McNutt (858 receiving yards, 17.9/catch, and 9 receiving TDs) is on the field (7 catches, 114 yards in 2 meetings). Michigan actually has done surprisingly well against Iowa’s ground game in the recent two meetings, holding them to an average of 109 yards, but gave up an average of 266 through the air.

 

Iowa graduated QB Ricky Stanzi, WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and TE Allen Reisner last year. Regardless of the talent Iowa lost, they always seem to reload. Michigan must avoid turning the ball over if they hope to get away with a win. They will also need to dominate the line of scrimmage, as Iowa’s run defense is weaker than in recent memory. Iowa outscores their opponents 130-57 in the first half (62-34 in Big Ten), but only outscores opponents 114-108 in the second half (48-56 in Big Ten).

 

@ Iowa +4.0 Michigan -4.0.

 

Michigan 29 Iowa 27.

 

Who ya got?