Diaries

Take a week to recuperate and all hell breaks loose. Although in the buzzed reality I lived in last week, I should have seen it in some sort of shaman vision. Let us begin from the Purdue game I barely remember and will never forget.

The anticipation of attending the Mecca of football for the first time this year was excruciating. My trusted confidant from Pennsylvania and his lady friend made their presence as well. The night started in Flint when we stocked up on a variety pack of the strongest liquids that would do the most damage to even an Irish elephant. We took a pit stop at the Greektown Casino and chased around the American Dream for a bit. All I caught was a headache from the goddamned noise of slots and the cheap rum they sold. The only winner in our traveling band of miscreants was my confidant. He walked away with $38 and a smirk I wanted to wipe off his face with a scythe, bleach, and salt.

The next morning we stopped for sustenance, ice, and rolled a Panamanian cigarette. As the last ashes blew in the wind of a crisp Michigan morning on Route 14, I began feeling giddy as a valley girl winning dairy princess in Wisconsin. We parked our vehicle across the street from the stadium at the lovely golf course. Many complain about the $40 charge for parking there, but if you get there early it is in a prime location and as the chemicals settle in, every strange character rolls in you know you have to keep an eye on later.

I timed the rum consumption perfectly.  As my enlightened feeling from the devil’s lettuce wore off the Sailor Jerry’s kicked in. It was only 930 in the morning and I was almost out of my fifth. The phone calls then began to come in. Friends from Detroit looking for me to travel to their locale kept coming in every two minutes. I kindly explained that if I attempted to traverse to their locations around campus, I would most likely end up in prison, or worst yet, East Lansing. This must have been a warning for them to keep a wide berth since no one dared came to our little spot in Ann Arbor. Only one true brave soul had courage to experience my posse this lit up, Blue Dragon. After many minutes of playing drunk Where’s Waldo in a crowd of over 110,000 of the human race we met up. As I polished off my last sip of Sailor Jerry’s, he bared his timely gift of nature’s Prozac. As we huddled into the front of a SUV to initiate peace talks and revelry, my confidant looked more scared than the Lohan family at a law enforcement conference. He spotted two older men of a good looking upbringing in the front of their vehicle along side of us. Tensions were eased when my confidant saw the men pull out a baggie of something that resembled flour. Someone forgot to inform them that making bread does not involve the step of snorting the flour. The bread doesn’t rise as well when done so.

As I tapped into one of my last beers my usually trusted confidant pulled out a fungus substance. I was immediately stricken with panic as I was already on multiple substances and about to embark on a journey to loud noise and sitting among many suspicious looking people. As I argued this would be a terrible idea, Blue Dragon proved to be a true pioneer as he gulped his down within seconds. Faced with immense peer pressure and the assurance I would be ok on a smaller dose, I reluctantly took it expecting impending doom.

Ten of noon struck and our band of heathens took our shit show to the stadium. My confidant and his lady friend had to check into gate E due to her over sized satchel. All that was left was Blue Dragon and I in a sea of drunken irritable fans looking for blood after a bye week gave all time to stew about the first loss of the season to the Fighting (literally) Dantonio’s. As Blue Dragon and I neared the entrance, he heard an angry voice call out to us that we ruined his fucking day because we supposedly cut in front of him. Half in shock of a surreal experience, and half in awe due to the lack of line to cut in, I believe I uttered… “Ok.”

Blue Dragon split way to our seats hopefully to cross paths on another trip in Ann Arbor. I arrived at our seats alone. I noticed a truck driver and his son had two of the seats I purchased.  Still in a dream state, I muttered something about them moving the fuck out of the way. Finally my confidant and his lady friend arrived to a surprising 7-0 Purdue lead. Not that I can manage to remember much of the details of the game except the ill timed RAWK music, sappy 80s pop songs, and the constant hypnotic HD screens, but Fitz Toussaint ran the distance of the Intercontinental Railroad and back against the Fighting Stache’s of West Lafayette. Michigan controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides all day and dominated the game 36-10. The rain at the end of the game, I actually enjoyed. It felt good to be rained on when the score board was tilted our way. It was like a Gatorade bath for those of us that continually support Michigan through thick and thin.

The night in Ann Arbor was even more of a hazy semi-unconscious trip. After losing complete composure in a camping store and downing more alcohol at Ashley’s, I vaguely remember ending the night drinking out of a boot, getting hit on by an architect major at U of M in a Robin’s costume, and arguing with a MSU student and her Australian boyfriend about the validity on their school being eligible to be accredited in anything but underwater basket weaving.

PART II: Corn Guzzled

As I slowly came out of the daze of sampling leftovers throughout the week, I wish I would have saved them for the Iowa game. The game first resembled a MANBALL marathon as both offenses looked sluggish and the defenses bent a little at the most. MANBALL advantage tilted in the favor of Iowa as the game went on. As I paced around my house in a furor I began swearing like a man with severe Tourettes. Denard made his fame on his legs. For Spaghetti Monster’s sake, his nick name is “shoelace”, not “glove Velcro.” I understand the wish to change the system to a semi-west coast offense that Gorgeous Borges is used to and wants to implement, but Denard is not made for that purpose. If a coach cannot tune the offense to the strengths of the star player’s advantage, you are neutralizing yourself. One of Rich Rodriguez’s many accusations and partly true was that he did not try to ease into a new system with players from an old system. I believe Gorgeous Borges is doing a better job of this, but has glaring deficiencies in some of the play calling. If a lane opens during a passing play and no one is immediately open, instead of bombing to a fly route, throwing to Tacopants, or trying to squeeze in a pass between three defenders, he should…..wait for it…RUN THE DAMN BALL! Yes this increases his risk of injury, but it also gives the most electrifying player in the NCAA a chance to make something happen in his own comfortable way. Did they tell Barry Sanders not to go lateral so much in his day? Probably, but lucky for us who got to witness him, he didn’t listen.  Will Gorgeous Borges adjust for the last four games? I guess you could say there is a better chance of Gorgeous Borges adjusting than growing a mullet.

The day became late and the fate of Michigan looked grim early in the fourth quarter. Down by more than two scores it looked as if the Michigan 2010 team put up a better fight. I walked out to the backyard and contemplated whether to down two bottles of root killer but decided that if I wasted it on myself, the women of the house would dice my body into pieces and send them down the Detroit River if the water backed up into the house again. After returning to the man cave I was shocked to see Michigan’s anemic offense twisted its way back to the game with a fighting chance. Hoke must have done some serious pointing in my absence.

  I am not one to pin blame on referees. Teams that effectively execute all game won’t be put in a position that comes down to a few bad calls. After that said, the referees need to be audited or whatever it’s called where they get an occupation proctology exam. Hemingway’s catch was a touchdown with a knee in and the mauling of Roundtree on the last play was so obvious that Helen Keller rose from the dead to boo the call.

Another Michigan loss to a mid-level B1G team triggers flashbacks of two previous deflating seasons. I still hold out HOKE…I mean hope that this won’t end like years past. The defense is better, adjustments after halftime (at least on defense) are apparent, and a larger chip is growing on the seniors that have experience possibly the worst years of Michigan football. In order for bloodthirsty players and fans to be happy this year, there needs to be at least two more wins. If not, next year is not going to be any easier and the offseason of Michigan infighting will seem all for naught.

PART III: Disgraced Valley at Pedophile State University

Much has been said on the Penn State/Sandusky matter. My only words are as follows. They won’t change a thing and some if not many won’t find any value in them. As a rabid college football fan and a recent citizen of the state, I must express them as I have yet to do so.

In 1998 accusations of inappropriate interactions between Sandusky and a young boy surfaced on the campus of Pennsylvania State University. In my opinion, this is what suddenly put the heir apparent of the football program into retirement. This was the first acknowledgement of wrong doing by the coaching staff and university. For four more years Sandusky was given unfettered access to the university facilities to continue his monstrous campaign of ruining the lives of future men.

Again in 2002 a graduate assistant (Mike McQueary) walked in on Sandusky naked having sexual intercourse with a ten year old boy. As the boy and Sandusky most likely turned to see the act was seen, the boy hoping that this nightmare may have been over was dashed when McQueary turned his back and rand home to his daddy. After his dad convinced McQueary to report the act to Joe Paterno and he did so, Joe Paterno then reported it to the now defunct AD. The authorities were never brought in for an investigation and no follow ups were had. An agreement between Joe Paterno, the AD, and the president of the University, Graham Spanier signed off on barring Sandusky from the campus. This would be the second acknowledgement of wrong doing. Again, no follow up and no outside investigation.

Sandusky moved his horror show to the town I then was going to college in. He became an assistant football coach for the high school team and still lured vulnerable boys in his Second Mile program. Finally getting caught again, the guillotine came down. Sandusky’s fate is sealed as I read it in the Grand Jury report. The man has a first class ticket to hell to have the offenses he exercised on youth done to him with Satan’s pitchfork.

Because his fate seems to be sealed, the attention has turned elsewhere on Joe Paterno, the school administration, and Mike McQueary. Attention deserved. For at least 13 years, Joe Paterno knew something was awry with his assistant coach. In 2002 Mike McQueary had a chance to save a ten year old child from the worst day of his young life. The administration was given notice. All chose to do nothing. If Joe Paterno is a man that holds those around him to  a higher level of accountability, then a man that holds more power than the board of trustees and the president of the university should have made sure the matter was taken care of and no more young boys were hurt. Instead he either thought the matter would go away or wanted to maintain a squeaky clean image of the football program.  Either way, it was wrong. Of course he did what he was technically supposed to do, but he chose a football program over the lives of children. No sport or program is worth more than an opportunity of a normal childhood. Many asked me if I would feel as strongly if this was in Michigan’s house because of my unvarnished hatred of PSU before this went down. The answer is yes. I could not continue to cheer on a program that was complicit in the molestation of young vulnerable boys.

Mike McQueary had a firsthand account to the sadistic acts Sandusky was capable of. He told Paterno and washed his hands of it. When he became a coach, he literally watched as Sandusky paraded more victims to PSU coaching functions and practices knowing damn well what that fucking swine could and would do. I believe there is a law in PA I came across in my occupation that said if any abuse to a child is witnessed or even plausibly true, it MUST be reported to state authorities. The fucking coward could have even anonymously called and told state authorities what had happened. Instead he received a coaching job and stayed mum.

The administration did more of the same. The top of the food chain chose to ignore and to minimally punish Sandusky. The “responsibility” lay with them and they did nothing. This is why the AD and VP of Finance resigned and the president who spoke ignorantly that he backed both unabashed is tonight getting axed as he well should be. All of them should be tarred and feathered and drug through broken glass and rusty nails.

The one item that is increasingly heinous is the victimization of the three parties above. As a recent citizen of PA I experience the cultish trust and invincibility of the PSU football program. Going to college a half an hour from PSU, I experienced this on an extreme level. This football program was so tight knit that it is another reason I cannot believe JoePa and others had no idea that Sandusky’s felonies were known and were suspected to probably to continue. The blind faith many in PA have of the football program is now at a disgusting level. Instead of lashing out to get to the bottom of this disgraceful episode in their history, they lash out at those accusing Paterno and those surrounding the case for unfair targeting. This is not all alumni and fans, but most. I believe it is this cult like following that allowed for this kind of horrific act to take place. PSU football became bigger than life. These children and their families were probably PSU football fans and bigger ones once this “trusted” program chose to include them into this James Johnson hypnotic organization. Families entrusted their young to the care and support of Paterno and his football family. Now instead of talking about victims and whose ass should burn for this, many in the cult of PSU football have had their reality challenged. This is something that has never happened in the age of Paterno. The grasping at straws to defend this program’s wide cover-up of the most atrocious crimes is a desperate attempt to hold onto a reality that really never was. Sandusky was a monster predator and Paterno, McQueary, and the PSU administration were complicit in his actions. Yesterday another 20 plausible victims came forward that could have been prevented if corrective actions were taken at first notice. Instead Paterno and the administration allowed a serial child rapist full access to their facilities for four years after knowing something was not right. The headlines today said Paterno has chosen to retire at the end of the season? The president of the university is getting fired and he gets to stay?! Fuck no! No longer does he get to decide PSU football. He has already shown grave mistakes and has admitted doing so with this simple quote said today:

“This is a tragedy. It is one of the great sorrows of my life. With the benefit of hindsight, I wish I had done more."

This man and those around this scandal will be taking the field Saturday with the privilege of doing something they love when men and boys around PA were betrayed by that same blind and dangerous love of moving on and forgetting the past in the name of PSU football.*

Nebraska, you better fucking annihilate these cowards and mutant freaks into further humiliation and disgrace.**

*As posting this, The PSU Board of Trustees have fired Graham Spanier and Joe Paterno. What about Mike McQueary?

**Nebraska- Green light to humiliate these freaks is still a go.

go maize.

[ED: Bump.]

Five days.

It's amazing how fast life can change.  What's happened in State College is an amazing reminder of how unstable even the most bedrock things in life really are.

That might sound ridiculous when we're talking about a mere football coach.  But keep in mind that Bo coached for twenty years.  Paterno's been a part of that program for almost fifty.

Watching all of this play out has been nothing short of a nightmare, even from someone like myself who is not a fan but has always respected and admired the football program if not directly supported it.  These stories have not showed up as random links in college football tabs on my desktop, but rather on the front page of the paper that lies in my driveway every morning.  What has seemed like an untouchable truth has crumbled around us in the blink of an eye.

Reading the SI articles today, it was amazing to see how they provided such a stark contrast of how Sandusky, Paterno, and ultimately Penn State football, was perceived for what seemed like eternity.  For me, I grew up in the reality that grass was green, the sky is blue, and Joe Paterno is the respected football coach.  I remember a wrestling coach who openly emulated him in every way.  I remember entire towns cleaning up because Paterno may or may not be coming to visit a potential recruit.  I was raised in a Penn State family. I have an uncle who is probably right now clearing signed footballs from his mantle.  I have an aunt who used to babysit for the Paternos in the very house I watched on SportsCenter last night--  I've driven past it myself, and been amazed at how humble the little home is for a man of such legendary stature.  And while I was never forced to be a PSU fan, I was always aware of how much the program was about values, and what those values meant to my dad and uncle and grandfather.  Honesty.  Integrity.  Hard work.  These things meant everything to my role models, and maybe that's why Penn State meant so much to them as well.

This morning I was in the car when Greenberg literally had the news about JoePa dropped in his lap and he read it aloud.  We in Pennsylvania all knew this day would one day come, but like this?

Learning that the ethical standards that went hand in hand with Joe Paterno were not only inaccurate, but has also cost him his immortal job status?  Well, it's like waking up one day and finding that the United States is secretly run by a Communist dictator.  It just doesn't make sense, and certainly doesn't seem real.

Penn State football will not suspend its games for the season.  That's unfair to Nebraska and certainly unfair to the current players.  Penn State football will certainly not fold like the Post suggested in its editorial.  It will move on, and it will one day be free of this grip of shame and unspeakable horror.  Not even this will shut down the program.

But what it will cost Penn State is its tradition.

When I think of Penn State football, it's always had a timeless feel.  Regardless of whatever composite materials or Revolution designs the helmet evolved into, it would still remain plain.  Boring.  Penn State.

What I never could have imagined is that in the decade to come, the school might knowingly sink that tradition, just to move away from all this.  In 2020 you might very well see Penn State in some ridiculous ProCombat jersey with leaping mountain lions across the shoulders.  You might see gray trim on the numbers.  You might see the athletic logo, known affectionately in these parts as the 'Beaver head,' finally on both sides of the helmet.  And that helmet might be gray, or blue, or both.  And not because Paterno is no longer there to refuse the idea... but rather to distance the program from what is now and will forever be remembered as a marred past.

There was once talk in the early 2000's that not simply the stadium would be renamed in Paterno's honor, but rather the entire campus or town itself.  Paterno Park.  Paternoville.  He was as timeless and as frozen in goodwill as Santa Claus.  Until now.

Penn State tradition was forever altered this week.  The men that will soon be put to task to pick up the pieces of this Hiroshima-esque landscape might very well choose to bury that tradition once and for all.  And for many, dreams, memories and entire ways of life will die with it.

There's a friend of mine down the street, an alum, who along with his dad, my neighbor, cherish their season tickets like family heirlooms.  That will not change.  They will continue to go, continue to tailgate and even continue to fly the flag outside their homes.  But this week, I have thought about him much, and specifically about what he will do on Saturday morning when he packs up the car and prepares to take the family up to State College.  He's got a son, about the same age as mine, who is always wearing blue and white on a Saturday morning.  And how on earth does he put his son in a Penn State jersey this week?  And if he doesn't, how does he tell his son that he can't wear his Moye jersey?  How do you tell him to stop loving JoePa, or explain why he won't be there next year?

Yes, I know, small fries compared to the lives of those poor kids whose trust was betrayed by that monster.  But life as we all know it has changed this week in Pennsylvania, and the ripple effects of this mess will continue to affect normal everyday people in my life and beyond for years to come.  It's just a really sad, improbable day... and we can only hope that lessons are learned and that lives can be changed for the better with the serving of justice. 

I know I'm not the only PA native here on the blog, and I'm curious to hear Steve in PA's take, and others.  But it's a strange, surreal blur of a bad dream in our community and thought it might be worth sharing and describing for the rest of you, if you're so inclined.  This is my last mention of the subject.

Prayers for the victims, and Go Blue.

This idea was a lot more fun last week, when nobody was projecting Michigan into the TicketCity bowl.  At least CBS still loves us!

Last week, I looked at 6 sources (ESPN Blogs, ESPN Schlabach, ESPN Edwards, CBS, BTN, and CFN/Scout).  Four had Michigan going to the Cap1, CBS said Fiesta, and Rittenberg said Insight.  For reference, here is my google doc with Week 9 projections for the other Big Ten teams, as well as for BCS games.  (ignore the fact that Week 11 is already filled out - just a copy/paste so I wouldn't have to rewrite a lot of the matchups/opponents if I didn't have to). 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aot7bzViRlbidGFjbFF6U0ljWjRwbmdvM0MydlpsdUE

Now, on to week 10 (which covers games through this past weekend).  And yes, chart. 

   Ok, I haIn summary, Rittenberg kept Michigan in the Insight; CBS kept Michigan in the Fiesta (!); Brad Edwards kept Michigan in the Cap1; CFN and Schlabach dropped Michigan from Cap1 to Outback; and BTN dropped Michigan all the way from the Cap1 to the TicketCity bowl (screw you, Dienhart!).  And not that you can average this sort of thing, but seems like the Outback is a likely destination for our Wolverines.  And yeah, I'd be happy with that

And last week, 4/6 had Wisco in the Rose, with the other 2 having msu and Nebraska.  This week, it's 3 Wisco and 3 msu.  

Anyway, if this seems interesting, I'll do it again the next few weeks until bowl selection.  Also, let me know if there are other bowl projections out there worth adding.  I'm not doing Joe Schmo's blog or anything, but a local or national media outlet's projections might be interesting.

EDIT: source links:

Rittenberg: http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/37700/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-10 

Schlabach/Edwards: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections 

CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions 

BTN: http://btn.com/tag/bowl-projections/ 

CFN/Scout: http://cfn.scout.com/2/557866.html 

On Twitter earlier this evening, somebody made note of something they'd read earlier this year that seemed relevant once again. "2011: The Lost Season".  When first made, the statement was tongue in cheek, impilying that so many schools had pending NCAA investigations that the entire season would be lost to eliminated records. Years from now, people would look at the college record books and wonder, "Why didn't anyone play football in 2011?"

In the wake of the PSU Sexual Abuse scandal, the phrase had taken on new meaning for the tweeter. To him, the scandals had amassed and amassed and reached a point where the 2011 season is better forgotten. The missing season is now a season in which the sport itself has gone missing, buried in a mess of too many lies. Too much hurt. Too much distrust and too much heartache. The season has spent too much time beneath a cloak wielding a dagger to be trusted.

I can't argue that point. Even though Michigan seems to have done everything right, I can't stand the abuse of young men willing to work hard and play harder, week in and week out by not following the rules, making illicit deals, or worse. It belittles the game to the point it's almsot easier to simply forget the year and hope another one like it never comes along. Right now, it hurts to be a fan of the system that creates and fosters these situations. We are very small but essential cogs in a very large machine that has corrupted its purpose. Something once as pure and simple as providing young men an opportunity to grow academically and cheer them on while they grow athletically has become very dark and sinister. It is ruled by money, unearned success and criminal behavior. And we are a part of it. It would feel a lot better to forget the whole season and pretend we support something much more pure, much more wonderful and idellyc. Right now, that's not the truth, but it would be easier.

It would be easier by far to declare this a lost season.

But to do such a thing would be to do a huge diservice to the very reason we are fans in the first place. At the heart of this broken, vile, soot-spewing machine lies the same power sources as there ever has been. Driven only by the desire for an education and the chance to play just a little bit longer, the young men at the heart of the game take the field every Saturday for joy and opportunity. Oh, some have pro-careers in mind. Some are less innocent than others, but it doesn't really matter. Not one is playing for position, wealth or illicit opportunity. Not one is playing because someone offered them a contract, or agreed to ignore and hide some wrongdoing on their part. They are playing because the NCAA told them they could earn a free education, develop themselves and maybe market themselves to football's next level, simply because they showed an apittude for it. And that, that is pure. A bit business-esque, perhaps. And certianly theres money to be made there. We can even argue about how that money is distributed, and what is fair.

It doesn't matter, really. There is no cloak and no darkness when the students take the field. They are playing for their university, and their university is educating them, and at that moment, nothing else needs enter the picture. At that moment, the machine is working. At that moment, everything is laid bare. There is no cloak and no dagger.

Two-Thousand-Eleven is a dark, dark season for college football. There have been misdeeds of every kind, and mistrust is present at every level. But so long as those young men run out of the tunnel to play for Michigan, and so long as we sing The Victors to support THEM, there will be an element of pure in a sea of filth.

This is not a lost season, because we still sing the national anthem and cheer the kickoff.

LSU field-goaled Alabama to death, with LSU remaining 1, but Alabama didn’t fall far (now #3). Boise State looks to be out of the BCS National Championship picture, as Alabama remains in front of the Broncos. The winner of Stanford/Oregon will likely be in front of Boise State, too.

For you sports gamblers out there:

The Top 25 teams were 9-11 ATS last week, with last week’s Top 10 teams going 5-5. To date, current top 10 teams are 58-31 ATS (65.2% success rate; 5-1 as underdogs) and current top 25 teams are 134-85-3 ATS (61.0% success rate; 22-17-1 as underdogs).

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at a sure-fire favorite and attempt to preview the Michigan game.

Be sure to check out my blog, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

@ Iowa (6-3) +4.0 Michigan (7-2). Result: Iowa 24 Michigan 16 [Props to One Inch Woody for correctly predicting Michigan would not cover].

Kansas (2-7) +14.5 @ Iowa State (5-4). Result: Iowa State 13 Kansas 10.

@ Kentucky (4-5) +1.0 Ole Miss (2-7). Result: Kentucky 30 Ole Miss 13.

@ Rutgers (6-3) +2.5 South Florida (4-4). Result: Rutgers 20 South Florida 17.

@ Oklahoma (8-1) -13.0 Texas A&M (5-4). Result: Oklahoma 41 Texas A&M 25.

Losses

Washington State (3-6) +10.0 @ California (5-4). Result: California 30 Washington State 7.

Duke (3-6) +15.0 @ Miami Florida (5-4). Result: Miami Florida 49 Duke 14.

Poster Picks

Jjlenny3 added one this week, with Houston covering (-27; 56-13).

Trebor added three wins, with Northwestern ATS (+17.5; 28-25), Oregon (-15; 34-17), and Stanford (-21; 38-13).

Picktown GoBlue also had Northwestern.

This Week

Two games for Northwest Ohio kick off Week 11, with Northern Illinois visiting Bowling Green (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN2/ESPN3) and Western Michigan visiting Toledo (8:00 PM/EST/ESPNU) on Tuesday night. The MAC takes the spotlight on Wednesday night, with Miami Ohio visiting Philadelphia, to take on Temple (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3). Three games on Thursday, with Ohio University visiting Mt. Pleasant, playing disappointing Central Michigan (7:30 PM/EST/ESPNU); (#10) Virginia Tech taking on (#21) Georgia Tech, in a Coastal Division battle (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3) (since 2006, the first year of the ACC Championship game, Virginia Tech has been in the title game four times [3-1] and Georgia Tech twice [1-1], with no other Coastal teams taking part); and (#11) Houston visiting the Crescent City, playing Tulane (8:00 PM/EST). Friday is a Big East showdown, with Syracuse hoping to become bowl eligible against South Florida (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN2/ESPN3).

Only three games involving top 25 teams with week. (#12) Penn State plays host to (#19) Nebraska, both of which are coming off embarrassing weeks (12:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3) (but Penn State’s being more serious). (#15) Georgia hosts (#20) Auburn Between the Hedges (3:30 PM/EST/CBS). Gameday is live from Palo Alto, for (#4) Stanford against (#7) Oregon (8:00 PM/EST/ABC).

Upset Watch

Western Kentucky (5-4) +41.5 @ LSU (9-0). The Hilltoppers are 101^st in total offense (56^th rushing, 104^th passing); LSU is 87^th (38^th rushing, 102^nd passing). Western Kentucky is 52^nd in total defense (46^th rushing, 75^th passing); the Tigers are 3^rd (2^nd rushing, 9^th passing). LSU is 35-0 all time against Sun Belt Conference teams with an average MOV of 41. Coming off the Alabama game, since 2006, LSU is 5-0, but only 2-3 ATS (2-2 ATS against non-conference opponents and 1-1 ATS against Sun Belt). LSU is 7-2 ATS, including 5-2 as a favorite; Western Kentucky is 7-2 ATS, including 7-1 as an underdog. Les Miles is 31-1 in non-conference play with LSU; 18-12 ATS in non-conference play (7-10 since 2008). Western Kentucky became Division 1 in 2008, since then they are 9-36, but 22-20 ATS. My only reluctance on taking Western Kentucky is that they are 1-4 ATS against SEC teams since 2008. The over/under is 49½, so bettors seem to think a 46-4, or 46-3, final is about right. I’d be surprised if the ‘Toppers score more than 3, but LSU will be on an emotional letdown, and I’d be surprised if they score 42 or more. Take Western Kentucky to cover.

Kentucky (4-5) +13.0 @ Vanderbilt (4-5)The Wildcats are 117^th in total offense (79^th rushing, 111^th passing); Vanderbilt is 103^rd (60^th rushing, 106^th passing). Kentucky is 70^th in total defense (100^th rushing, 28^th passing); the Commodores are 30^th (44^th rushing, 41^st passing). Since 1997, Kentucky is 11-3 SU against Vanderbilt and 9-4 ATS (3-0 ATS as an underdog). Kentucky is 4-5 ATS this year (2-3 as an underdog, while Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS (3-0 as a favorite). Since their bye week, Kentucky is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, Vanderbilt is 1-4 SU, but 4-1 ATS, losing back-to-back conference games by a combined 8 points. Since QB Jordan Rodgers (959 passing yards, 51.1% completion 5 passing TDs, but 5 INTs) started against Alabama, Vanderbilt’s offense has averaged 24.2 points/game. In the last three games, Rodgers is averaging 241 passing yards and 53.7% completion; has 4 passing TDs, but 2 INTs. I like Vanderbilt to win, despite Kentucky having more talent overall. Take Kentucky with the points.

Miami Florida (5-4) +9.0 @ Florida State (6-3). The Hurricanes are 67^th in total offense (59^th rushing, 66^th passing); Florida State is 45^th (91^st rushing, 18^th passing). Miami Florida is 64^th in total defense (81^st rushing, 39^th passing); the Seminoles are 4^th (3^rd rushing, 22^nd passing). The underdog has won six straight in this series and the visiting team has won five straight. In the past six years, five of the six meetings have been decided by eight points or less (since 1997, 10 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by eight points or less). Since 1997, Miami Florida is 8-7 SU against Florida State and 8-7 ATS. Since 2004, Miami Florida is 33-29 in the ACC, but 26-36 ATS in conference (11-10 ATS as an underdog, 9-8 ATS as a road underdog). Since 2004, Florida State is 38-26 in the ACC, but 27-37 ATS in conference (27-38 ATS as favorite, 17-25 ATS as a home favorite). This year, Florida State is 5-4 ATS, including 5-2 as a favorite; Miami Florida is 5-4 ATS, including 2-1 as an underdog. I’ll pass on projecting a winner of this one, based on the recent history, but Miami Florida should keep it closer than the spread indicates. Take Miami Florida with the points.

Washington (6-3) +12.5 @ USC (7-2).The Huskies are 51^st in total offense (52^nd rushing, 43^rd passing); USC is 26^th (61^st rushing, 20^th passing). Washington is 93^rd in total defense (52^nd rushing, 113^th passing); the Trojans are 56^th (18^th rushing, 104^th passing). Since 1997, Washington is 4-8 SU against USC, but 6-6 ATS (since 2005, 5-1 ATS). Four of the last six meetings have been decided by six points or less. USC Coach Lane Kiffin is 22-13 SU (13-10 in conference play), 17-18 ATS (13-10 ATS in conference play), and 11-14 ATS as favorite (7-10 ATS as a home favorite). Washington Coach Steve Sarkisian is 18-16 SU (13-11 in conference play), 19-15 ATS (13-11 ATS in conference play), and 10-11 ATS as an underdog (5-7 ATS as a road underdog). Washington is 6-3 ATS this year, including 3-2 as an underdog; USC is 5-4 ATS, including 3-3 as a favorite. This game has the potential to be a shootout, with two porous pass defenses. Washington should keep this closer than the spread indicates. Take Washington with the points.

@ Mississippi (2-7) +2.5 Louisiana Tech (5-4).The Rebels are 113^th in total offense (84^th rushing, 107^th passing); Louisiana Tech is 57^th (65^th rushing, 49^th passing). Mississippi is 98^th in total defense (110^th rushing, 57^th passing); the Bulldogs are 60^th (14^th rushing, 108^th passing). Mississippi is 8-1 all time against Louisiana Tech, but the two teams have only met once since 1993, a 2007 meeting in Oxford, with the Rebels winning 24-0. Over the nine game series, Mississippi has an average MOV of 12.8 (18.2-5.4). Louisiana Tech Coach Sonny Dykes is 10-11 SU (2-6 in non-conference play), 12-9 ATS (4-4 ATS in non-conference play), and 4-4 ATS as favorite (2-1 ATS as a road favorite). Since 2001, Mississippi Coach Houston Nutt is 76-58 SU (37-9 in non-conference play), 65-62 ATS (22-17 ATS in non-conference play), and 27-20 ATS as an underdog (7-9 ATS as a home underdog). Mississippi is 3-6 ATS this year, including 3-3 as an underdog; Louisiana Tech is 7-2 ATS, including 2-2 as a favorite. Houston Nutt has lost two non-conference games only once since 1998 (coached Boise State in 1997 – then Big West member; Arkansas from 1998-2007, and Mississippi from 2008-2011), losing two non-conference games in 2006, to USC and Wisconsin; Mississippi is 2-1 in non-conference this season. Despite Mississippi being a bad football team, Houston Nutt rarely loses non-conference games. Take Mississippi with the points, and to win.

Sure-fire Favorite

@ SMU (6-3) -8.5 Navy (3-6).The Mustangs are 49^th in total offense (97^th rushing, 15^th passing); Navy is 43^rd (3^rd rushing, 119^th passing). SMU is 35^th in total defense (18^th rushing, 81^st passing); the Midshipmen are 88^th (87^th rushing, 65^th passing). The two teams meet for the Gansz Trophy; Navy has held the trophy since its inception in 2009, and Navy leads the series 8-7. Since 1997, SMU is 1-5 against Navy, but 2-4 ATS (1-1 ATS as a favorite).

Since 2001, SMU Coach June Jones is 86-54 SU (46-25 in non-conference play), 65-65-2 ATS (24-21 ATS in non-conference play), and 35-40-1 ATS as favorite (25-27-1 ATS as a home favorite). Navy Coach Ken Niumatalolo is 30-20 SU, 24-22-1 ATS, and 11-6 ATS as an underdog (9-5 ATS as a road underdog). Navy is 5-4 ATS this year, including 2-1 as an underdog; SMU is 5-4 ATS, including 4-1 as a favorite. In six losses Navy’s average MOD is 13 (but 4 losses by a combined 8 points). Navy’s defense isn’t great, and SMU is capable of minimizing damage from the triple option. Take SMU to cover.

Gameday Prediction

Ron Zook is 34-48 straight up at Illinois. Coach Zook is 23-20 at home (5-1 this year), 18-35 against the Big Ten (2-3 this year), and 4-19 against the top 25 (1-1 this year). Coach Zook is 37-41 ATS and 20-14 as an underdog ATS at Illinois since 2005 (7-7 underdog ATS at home).

Brady Hoke is 54-52 straight up (13-12 at San Diego State, 34-38 at Ball State). Coach Hoke is 59-42-3 ATS and 31-17-2 against the spread as a favorite. 

Illinois’s defense is ranked 6^th (8^th passing [177.22 yards/game], 15^th rushing [102.89 yards/game]). Michigan’s offense is ranked 28^th (82^nd passing [208.10 yards/game], 14^th rushing [237.50 yards/game]).

Illinois’s offense is ranked 55^th (84^th passing [204.10 yards/game], 26^th rushing [198.44 yards/game]). Michigan’s defense is ranked 28^th (26^th passing [193.13 yards/game], 54^th rushing [142.63 yards/game]).

Since 1997, Michigan is 7-3 straight up against Iowa (4-6 ATS). Michigan has averaged 440 offensive yards (compare with 341.5 offensive yards against Iowa) with 254.6 of those being passing (compare with 220 against Iowa) and 185.4 rushing (compare with 121.5 rushing against Iowa) since 1997.

Michigan hasn’t won the turnover margin against Illinois since 2004 (2-2 in games since then).

Illinois could pass for Rodney Dangerfield; they just get no respect. Granted, Illinois’s conference foes to date are a combined 10-11 on Big Ten (remaining opponents, including Michigan, are a combined 7-8 in Big Ten), the Fighting Illini have given up an average of 20.6 points/game in Big Ten play (16 points/game in last three – 0-3 over that stretch). Since 1997, Illinois has averaged giving up 36.7 points/game to Michigan (33.33 points/game, excluding last year), compared with 27.9 to Northwestern (14 meetings), 22.2 to Indiana (14 meetings), 27.75 to Ohio (12 meetings), 32.8 to Purdue (10 meetings), and 28.9 to Penn State (12 meetings), not including this year.

The Illini have recovered 8 fumbles to date (T-36^th in NCAA) and have forced 8 interceptions (T-56^th in NCAA). With that said, Illinois has been atrocious in net punting, averaging only 33.8 yards/punt (105^th in NCAA); Michigan has been worse (32.9 yards/punt; 114^th in NCAA).

@ Illinois +1.5 Michigan.

Illinois 27 Michigan 24.

Who ya got?