Diaries

“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” 
Albert Einstein

Learn from yesterday...

Common sense tells us that facing a team coming off of a bye week should be a disadvantage.  Give a good coach 2 weeks to prepare for a game and they will have their team refreshed and focused, ready to take advantage of what their next opponent gives them.  Mark Dantonio had the Spartans ready to exploit Michigan's flaws and that preparedness (plus a bit of dirty play) allowed Michigan State to dominate us. Brady Hoke used Michigan's bye week to effectively put the loss to Little Brother in the rearview and had the Wolverines ready to put Purdue away in style.  When Miles faced Saban after each had a bye week the result was one of the most epic battles I have ever seen.  This is what good coaching can do with a bye week advantage.

Ron Zook is a bad coach, this is known.  It is remarkable how bad he is though, when looking at his record after bye weeks.  Over the past 4 seasons (2008-2011) Illinois has had 6(!) bye weeks, with two in both 2009 and 2010.  Their record following these bye weeks?  0-6:

2008: Lost to Penn St 38-24

2009: Lost to OSU 30-0, Lost to Cincinnati 49-36

2010: Lost to OSU 24-13, Lost to Fresno St 25-23

2011: Lost to Michigan (woot!)  31-14

That is epic fail.  Ron Zook should be fired.

It was a very satisfying win for Michigan however.  Yes, the lack of redzone efficiency kept the game interesting for far too long.  This just magnified how much better this defense is than anything we could have reasonably expected.  The zone blitzing destroyed Illinois.  The run defense was smothering.  Even the prevent defense worked almost to perfection, with Illinois needing almost 7 minutes to score when they were down 3 scores with 10 minutes to go.  They kept plays in front of them, tackled in-bounds, and strangled the game.  Giving up the 4th-26 was painful, but by that point it was forgivable.  Greg Mattison has done better than anyone could have expected.

Live for Today…

Several players/coaches should take particular pride in their accomplishments yesterday:

1. Greg Mattison - Seriously, can we get this guy a raise?  I know he already makes a lot of dough, but he has earned it and then some.  This defense makes such incredible leaps forward with each game... just remarkable.
2. Fitz Toussaint - Got his swagger back right out of the gate.  Get this guy a tear-away jersey and he would have had 250 yards.  It makes so much more seem possible when a top running back steps forward.
3. Devin Gardner - Looked much less lost out there.  Clutch TD throw on 3rd and long really put the game away.  Still needs work, but perhaps the future is looking up for DG.
4. JT Floyd - Beautiful anticipation on the interception that kept Illinois from making a comeback.  Played well against Jenkins, really taking away the Illini's best weapon for most of the game.
5. Jeremy Gallon - Great job on punt returns.  Really helped Michigan flip the field position in their favor.

Also of note:  Martavious Odoms nice TD grab, Denard Robinson 2 TD runs, RVB 2.5 sacks, Desmond Morgan blowing up fools, Mike Martin is Mike Martin

Hope for Tomorrow

Michigan comes back home to wrap up the season sitting at 8-2.  The rest is gravy. Every Michigan fan should be pretty happy with how the team is progressing.  I have not felt this confident about the future since 2006 at least.  Nebraska will be a tough test in a week, but I think Michigan will be competitive in that contest.  Ohio just lost to Purdue and is a team that Michigan should beat.  It is the biggest rivalry in all of sport though, so anything can happen. Regardless of how the last two games go though, this team has made this fan happy and excited about seasons to come.  It is great to be a Michigan Wolverine.

Go Blue and stay safe!

    It feels great to win a rivalry game, even if it’s just our opponent who considers it a rivalry. By my count, Brady is now 4-1 in rivalry games. I’m including San Diego State, because you don’t just take another team’s coach without there being some hurt feelings. Brady is like the personification of the little brown jug, if only it wore short sleeves and was neither little, nor brown.*

Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/111211aaa.html

Burst of Impetus

• Initial impetus went to Michigan after Touss’ 65 yard run that basically told Illinois, yeah, you have a good defense but we can run on you. We controlled the impetus for the rest of the half.
• Illinois had two nice plays to start the second half, but our defense followed that with a Desmond Morgan de-cleater (everyone who saw/heard it knows what I’m talking about), a blitzing Kovacs TFL, and a monster sack from Van Bergen, who split a double-team and jumped on top of Scheelhaase’s back. Burst of Impetus regained.
• It did appear that Illinois adjusted to our inside running game, and started to slow us down. When Denard went out injured, things got a little dicey. Then, JT Floyd picked off Scheelhaase and almost returned it for six. When Gardner threw for a TD shortly after that, the game was basically over. Illinois was beaten by our backup QB again.

Trash Cans Full of Dirt

• JT FLOYD!
• Mike Martin lead us with 9 tackles. That’s right, an interior defensive lineman lead us with NINE tackles. I’m going to miss that guy. He also got half a sack and 2 QHs. Roh also had 2 QHs. We were QH’ing Scheelhaase all game long.
• Back to Floyd. He’s been a punching bag on this blog and I’ve thought that was a little unfair, but what do I know, I only watch the game once. I hope the “JT Floyd is not a good corner” meme can die a quick and sudden death after today. He had 4 tackles, an interception that put the game away, and 2 pass breakups. I also didn’t notice him whiffing on any tackles.
• Desmond Morgan was second in tackles with 8, including the aforementioned de-cleater. Can I have 3 more years of that, please?
• VAN BERGEN!!! He gets three of these “!,” one for each of his TFLs, that included 2.5 sacks for 27 yards. On one of his sacks he proved that Lewan is not the only one who likes to ride donkeys.
• The first time Illinois was in our territory, there was 1:45 left in the third quarter.
•  
•  
• Just wanted to let that sink in for a minute. 
• The Team had 6 TFLs, 4 of which were sacks, 5 passes broken up, and the 4 QHs. Yes, Illinois’ offense is struggling, but our guys still needed to go out there and make plays and they did. I can’t see Martinez or Miller doing that much better throwing than Scheelhaase did. We’ll need to stop their run games, but it will be nice having those games at home. Not to jinx things, but 10-2 is still a distinct possibility, and that starts with defense.

Filthy

• I apologize to Touss for that “china in a bull store” crack last week. Touss was in Bull-mode all afternoon. He had 27 carries for 192 yards. That works out to 7.1 yards per carry. He had a 65 yard run that set the tone for the first half.
• Denard had two nice touchdown runs, but was otherwise held in check by the Illini.
• I know “Molk” doesn’t show up in the boxscore, but 223 NET YARDS RUSHING against a good rush defense does, and a lot of that is attributable to one David Molk. What a game he had.

San Diego49ers

• Odoms caught two for 46 yards. One was a 27 yard TD that put the game away. I’ve always liked Odoms, and I couldn’t be happier for him.
• Koger caught two, one for 40 yards where he dragged the DB for the last 10.

Big John R. Studd Referee Section

• The linesman was Tripp Sutter. Tripp, I assume you are a grown man. Why are we still going with, “Tripp?”
• Michigan had 4 penalties for 29 yards, and Illinois was flagged for 4 penalties and 25 yards.
• After last week, it was nice not having to complain about the refs, but man were there a bunch of replays.
• I think the lesson we learned from the Iowa game is that you can get a little physical with the wideouts and sometimes get away with it.
• I thought they missed a helmet-to-helmet hit that knocked out Denard, and a few other late hits on Illinois, but all-in-all, there’s nothing to complain about this week.

Hexadecimal Points

• Normal jerseys from both sides. I will say that I find orange to be a complementary color, like white, grey, yellow, and maize. I don’t think you should wear a complementary color with white pants. It’s not a good look, but Illinois has to concede blue to us, forcing them into the orange unis, and making them look like an orange creamsicle.
• 2H Matthew Cavanaugh had 2 tackles and 5G Frank Clark had one, and gave up the edge, again. Cavanaugh is making the most of his ST play. That guy always ends up making a couple tackles.
• #24, Delonte Hollowell, didn’t show up in the boxscore, but he made a huge play on special teams. On one of our punts, the Illini returner muffed the catch. Before he had a chance to cover the ball, Hollowell nailed him. It was a nice, clean hit that allowed McColgan to recover the fumble.

Derpan Meyer

• Announcers were Justin Kutcher and Craig James.
• Referring to Illinois’ offensive line, Craig James said, and I quote, “They’re athletic and I watch them, and the eye candy of their offensive line is there.” Hey, Illini linemen, if Craig asks you for a post-game interview, you should probably politely decline. And Craig, when the third thing that shows up on Google when you search for Craig James is “Craig James killed 5 hookers,” you probably shouldn’t talk about linemen as eye candy.
• When I found out Craig was announcing our game, I decided NOT to use the “Craig James killed 5 hookers” angle {allegedly, I know, I know,} but when you throw a fat one over the plate like that, you leave me no choice.
• Craig James called Reilly O’Toole, “Freshman O’Toole.” That’s fitting.

Random, as Yet Unnamed, Bullets

• I’m not sure which name is better, Reilly O’Toole, or Pat Nixon-Youman. On the one hand, you’ve got “Reilly O’Toole.” On the other, you’ve got a former First Lady with a great Chris Berman name, “Pat Nixon You-Da-man!” And let’s not forget Illinois DB Supo Sanni.
• Illinois, after getting only one first down in the first half, actually had one more first down than we did, 15-14. But when you only accrue 37 yards rushing, you are usually not going to win the game. Illinois averaged 1.1 yards per carry. I’m giggling.
• Total yards, UofM 362, Ill 214. Big Plays! We had ‘em, they didn’t. Their longest run was 13 yards. Mr. Kovacs, please stay healthy.
• Net yards per punt, UofM 32.2, Ill 34.7. Net yards per kickoff, UofM 49.2, Ill 50. A push on special teams? I’ll take it every time.

* The point of this paragraph is to admit to Illinois that they are our rivals, in the same way that Minnesota and San Diego State are. In other words, not really.

Disclaimer: I am not a football coach, football player, or football commentator. My analysis is purely amateur. That said, MGoUser joeyb and I were at the game today, so I figured I'd share my thoughts on DT Matt Godin and ATH Drake Johnson after DCC's manhandling of Pioneer:

• When Ace said Drake Johnson 'was' the Pioneer offense... man, he wasn't kidding. Drake got every carry on the first two possessions, and then lined up as a wildcat QB for most of the rest of the game. From that position he would hand off, run, and throw with about equal frequency.  I think that this was mostly an attempt to work around the aggressive DCC defensive line. He was also their main kick returner (more on that later), and handled the punting duties as well.
   
• DCC's D-line is either very good, or Pioneer's O-line is very bad. Every single pass attempt ended in an incompletion, interception, or sack. Johnson was never really able to find any holes- most of his yardage came on two carries for 12 and 9 yards. While some of this was definitely Godin being Godin, a lot of DCC's dominance came from their right-side defensive end.
   
• While it was tough to really see Drake's talents on display, he did have a few touches that weren't blown up right away. He seems to be a one-crease-and-go kind of guy, not really interested in dancing or cutting back unless the cutback lane was gapingly open.
   
• I don't think he's going to take over the halfback passing duties from Smith anytime soon- he had a few passes to 'relatively' open guys that went to Tacopants instead- but he's got decent arm strength.
   
• On kickoff returns, he has the nasty habit of catching the ball over his head rather than setting up behind it so he can get his momentum going forward. He didn't drop any, though, so... good hands? He had three kick returns.
   
• The first he took at the goal line and hit a major crease on the right sideline for about 40 yards. Once he got through the first line, he was off. Had 2 guys to beat to the end zone, the first one knocked him OOB. He never slowed down or looked to cut.
   
• The second he took at about the five, the coverage was a lot better. He had no hole to hit, but that didn't stop him from running straight into the pile and getting dropped at around the 20. Maybe he thought he could just plow through them, but I would like him to try and set up a block and maybe reverse it.
   
• The third, he started left and had nothing, so he cut back right and got about 25 yards. Looked much more like a collegiate return.
   
• As a route runner, he only had around three or four snaps, but showed off his speed and actually ran some nice crisp routes. Quick to get out of his break and got separation on a few post routes. If his QB had any time, they could have thrown to him.
   
• Matt Godin played LT on every DCC offensive snap save the last few. Since we're recruiting him as a DT, I won't spend much time talking about his blocking, but I will note that he had a really hard time finding anyone in the second level to block. His best snaps were when he had ends lined up directly over him, but those came few and far between as DCC often lined up a tight end to his side. He took a lot of plays off on offense when the run wasn't to his side.
   
• As a DT, I know I'll sound like every other football commenter ever, but man... pad level, pad level, pad level. Sure, he's four inches taller than everyone else out there, but his stance pre-snap was mostly bent at the waist, not the knees. Unofficially, I had him with four tackles, three right at the line of scrimmage.
   
• As I mentioned before, DCC's D-line was in the backfield all game. Most of the passing pressure came from the ends, but Godin was consistently pushing single blocks back on passing downs. On runs, he seemed content to hold people right at the line, whether he was being single or double blocked.
   
• His best play by far came in the third quarter. The play was a run off the left guard, Godin was lined up outside the right guard. Off the snap, the RG dove at Godin, trying to cut him. Godin took a half-step back and pushed the RG down, ran over him and wrapped up Drake in the backfield, tackling right at the line for no gain.
   
• The worst thing I saw about Godin, though, was his effort. There were far too many plays where he'd simply stop playing after making his initial move off the line, whether on offense or defense. Hoke is gonna have to coach some serious effort into this guy. He's got all the physical tools to be a standout, but needs some serious technical and mental refining.

Video companion to the Picture Pages 'Zone Minus Read.'  Analysis courtesy Brian, as usual. Original Picture Pages at http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-zone-minus-read. So this time I've got proper lowercase letters and the slo-mo is working again.  That means next time I probably will have effed-up lowercase letters and no slo-mo.

Setup: It's second and three on Michigan's first drive of the second half. They come out in Ace one-wide against Iowa's 4-3 under and will run an inside zone.

Wha'hoppon: Michigan doubles the NT and strong side DE as the LBs flow straight upfield.  The critical point here is when Lewan just chips the backside DE and then goes out on a LB.  This leaves the DE as a free hitter.  There are a lot of things you can do differently with Denard in the shotgun reading that DE (the DE would either have to keep contain on Denard and open up a cutback lane for Fitzgerald, or go for Fitzgerald and leave Denard one-on-one against the safety).  Since they aren't, he's free to more or less make the tackle.  Brian also questions Watson's decision to block the SLB outside and ignore the DE, but I'm not sure the result would have been any different - the SLB would have been maybe one step later in pursuit, but the DE got to the spot so fast that one step probably wouldn't have mattered.

Original Picture Pages at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAQefW9nCkg

Forward Overview:

I would like to first start out by saying Thank God this is not us. Both teams came into the season looking for answers on the offensive side and so far Miami has had a lot of trouble replacing the departed. I guess it's difficult to replace a 70 point scorer, a 50 point scorer, and a 30 point scorer if you're not Red Berenson. Rilley Smith leads the group as the highest scoring starter to return this season but the results have been ugly, right now this team does not appear on the NCAA top 40 in scoring. They are awful at scoring and when they do score it's still ugly, and that's about the only scoring highlight there is. Miami has played a weak schedule so far with the best opponents being Ferris and LSSU and was swept by both, so it's safe to say that this team is not very good.

Defensive Overview:

The reason I only chart four defensemen is because these four are the only ones who are listed on the official score sheet. The forwards were bad but this group of defensmen might be the worst in the country, which is very surprising because this is not a young unit of blueliners. They have a huge problem with penalties and a mediocre PK, and if they continue this trend Wolverine forwards will have no problem getting quality scoring chances.

The picture illustrates how not to play defense so that even someone with little understanding of the game could realize what is going on. The forward is bringing the puck down and the defensemen is bailing because he was caught so high up. He should be 5 feet back keeping pace, not turning his hips trying to keep up. This is a mistake we made in squirts, it's unacceptable in college hockey and they seem to do it way to much.

Goalie:

What happened? The regression from both goalies and defensemen have been huge, fans expected a drop in production but nothing like this. It's so bad that the Reichard has gone from All-American to 30^th in GAA AVG and unlisted in SV%. Miami likes to split goalies so we will see both Reichard and Knapp, but at this point I don't think it really matters.

Michigan

Forward Overview:

As Usual the forwards have been strong, but I have been very impressed by Guptil and Travis Lynch so far this season. Both have been positive contributers on the scoring end this year, but have also been playing solid defense and have been out of the box. I'm excited to see how they play this weekend against such a poor defense, especially after playing above-average to outstanding blueliners the past three series.

Defensive Overview:

Greg Pateryn 2-8-10 SOG 23 +9 PMIS 8

Mac Bennett 2-7-9 SOG +9 PIMS 4

Lee Moffie 1-5-6 SOG 20 +10 PIMS 8

Mike Chiasson 0-4-4 SOG 5 +14 PIMS 9

Brennan Serville 0-3-3 SOG 6 +4 PIMS 0

Kevin Clare 1-1-2 SOG 4 +5 PIMS 0

In an earlier preview I compared the defense to a horror movie, our guys are the unsuspecting male protagonists who never see the bad guy sneaking up behind them. At this point it's getting old because it happens way too much. Watching film on previous games the other teams are not getting great scoring chances, but most of the time when they score it's because of a defensemen watching the puck and letting his guy get behind him. I can not point to a reason why this happened because the upperclassmen are making the mistakes, It's not like this was caused by not having Jon Merrill and Chad Langlias. Hopefully they can make a statement this weekend and get some confidence moving forward.

Goalie:

Still Hunwick even if he isn't getting a lot of help from the defense.

Prediction

I have given up predictions because I am a superstitious sports fan and so far every prediction I have made has not came true. Looking at how bad Miami is and how we have played so far I would give us an edge, but we play on friday so anything can happen. Ill leave the board to discuss.

Tailgating

For you super early-bird tailgaters, Champaign won't hit 40 degrees until 8am, and with a SW wind at 10-15mph, wind chill will make it feel like 30. By 10am, wind chill still hanging on, and although it will be 48, it'll still feel like it's in the low 40s. That wind has picked up a bit also, still out of the southwest, but up to 17-22mph (small trees sway). Temps will hit 55 by 1pm, SW winds up to a steady 22mph, and gusts possible up to 25mph (empty plastic garbage cans tip over, you can hear the wind "whistling"). Cloud cover will increase during the day, but tailgating should be mostly sunny.

Kickoff

Remember it's a 2:30 CT start! Reaching the high of 59 degrees with mostly sunny skies for kickoff. And that wind's not backing down... SSW winds at 20mph, with gusts up to 32mph (it's difficult to use an umbrella, you need to use effort to walk against the wind).

Halftime

Dropping just a degree or two for halftime, still a warm 58 degrees. Partly sunny skies by now, as more and more clouds build their way in. SSW winds remain high also at 20mph, and expect gusts up around 30mph.

Post-Game

Experiencing not nearly the same cool down as Friday night, Champaign will stay mild. Even by last call, temps will only be in the low 50s. The clouds continue to build for a mostly cloudy evening and staying that way overnight. Those SSW winds stay at 20mph, with gusts still possible up to 30mph, increasing into Sunday. If you're driving home on Sunday, expect mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of rain, highs in the low 60s, and windy conditions-be careful driving as gusts could be up to 40mph!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!