Diaries

Look, I'm not naive. This is a Michigan blog in the middle of football season, and I understand that the vast majority of you are here to read about football. That's ok, I come here for that too. Having said that, I'm guessing most of us feel a lot like this .gif (which Ace posted on Twitter Sunday night). Most of us probably have visions of the interior offensive line standing by, stationary, like cops by the side of the freeway (Hey, that guy's going by us way too fast. He's gonna cause an accid...see? See, that's what I was saying). 

Forget about all that for a minute and get lost in the glorious charts of a Michigan team ranked #2 in the latest USCHO poll. That's right, there's a Michigan team that's climbing up the polls! If they continue playing the way that they have (read: willing to battle for puck possession, realtively intelligent passing, good forechecking) then there are going to be a lot of people who find a more enjoyable way to spend their Saturday nights once football season is over.

Friday, October 25 vs. Boston University (W, 2-1)

1st Period

	Michigan	BU
Goals	0	1
Shots	12	4
Missed	5	2
Blocked	7	1
Total	24	8
%	75.00	25.00

2nd Period

	Michigan	BU
Goals	0	0
Shots	16	7
Missed	7	3
Blocked	5	2
Total	28	12
%	70.00	30.00

3rd Period

	Michigan	BU
Goals	2	0
Shots	12	7
Missed	8	6
Blocked	8	3
Total	30	16
%	65.22	34.78

Overall

	Michigan	BU
Goals	2	1
Shots	40	18
Missed	20	11
Blocked	20	6
Total	82	36
%	69.49	30.51

Saturday, October 26 vs. UMass Lowell (L, 1-2)

1st Period

	Michigan	UMass Lowell
Goals	0	0
Shots	12	12
Missed	0	7
Blocked	3	5
Total	15	24
%	38.46	61.54

2nd Period

	Michigan	UMass Lowell
Goals	1	1
Shots	18	14
Missed	7	6
Blocked	5	4
Total	31	25
%	55.36	44.64

3rd Period

	Michigan	UMass Lowell
Goals	0	1
Shots	8	10
Missed	4	4
Blocked	5	4
Total	17	19
%	47.22	52.78

Overall

	Michigan	UMass Lowell
Goals	1	2
Shots	38	36
Missed	11	17
Blocked	13	13
Total	63	68
%	48.09	51.91

 

Friday, November 1 vs. Michigan Tech (W, 3-2 OT)

I am Mario and MGoBlueTV is the castle. Someday I shall breach those daunting castle walls, but last Friday was not that day. In other words, no charts.

Saturday, November 2 vs. Michigan Tech (W, 2-1)

1st Period

	Michigan	Tech
Goals	1	0
Shots	10	6
Missed	5	1
Blocked	4	4
Total	20	11
%	64.52	35.48

2nd Period

	Michigan	Tech
Goals	0	0
Shots	11	8
Missed	8	3
Blocked	5	5
Total	24	16
%	60.00	40.00

3rd Period

	Michigan	Tech
Goals	1	1
Shots	8	10
Missed	0	3
Blocked	0	6
Total	9	20
%	31.03	68.97

Overall

	Michigan	Tech
Goals	2	1
Shots	29	24
Missed	13	7
Blocked	9	15
Total	53	47
%	53.00	47.00

Assorted Thoughts

• Winning the Corsi battle correlates with winning in the three games charted. It does not, however, correlate with scoring margin. The caveat is the small sample size, which is why I'm charting everything I possible can; we'll see how this plays out over the season.
• Michigan has only won once (against Boston College) when they have had a worse possession percentage than their opponent in the first period. Maybe there's something to be said for starting strong.
• Michigan has looked flat in the third period too often this year. It cost them against UMass Lowell and it could have cost them against Michigan Tech on Saturday. This "flatness" is reflected in the possession numbers above.
• I'm collecting power play data too, but my plan is to publish that around the midseason point in a longer post.

YARDS PER PLAY AND THIRD DOWN DIFFERENTIALS: AN UPDATE

In diaries in the past, we’ve talked about how yards per play differentials and third down differentials seem to be reasonably well correlated to a team’s overall success. For the most part, win these battles and you will likely win the game. It is in looking at these numbers for Michigan’s season to date that a couple interesting things seem to appear actually.

We’ll start with third down differentials compared to win / loss margin. The summary of the last eight seasons plus this season to date is below:

It looks as if 2011 onwards has something interesting happening, right? I looked at the overall R-value for the 109 games played since the start of 2005, and it is 0.706, which is perhaps not the best but respectable as football goes. One thing that is sort of intriguing is that, if you break the first two plus seasons under Hoke into separate groups, you find:

YEAR	R-VALUE
2011	0.730
2012	0.733
2013	0.771

Of course, the seasons in isolation are smaller populations, so it has to be interpreted in that light, but the trend here of third down differential becoming increasingly tied to win-loss margin under Hoke is interesting, I would think.

Here is the graph of third down differentials and score margin for this season to date:

A bit of trivia here – that -35.97% third down differential is not Michigan’s worst performance on this metric in the last eight or so years.  It is the second worst actually, but it is in the end merely one game. The worst (-36.97%) actually belongs to the 2008 Ohio State game, which ended a very painful season indeed. The chances based on data from the last 109 games of Michigan having such a deficit here? About 3%, so we do have that – it isn’t likely to happen often.

The yard per play differentials this season, when compared to score margin, tell a similar story:

The thing that strikes me is that we’ve only been outgained once, although we have had three games where the differential was a yard or less. In the Penn State game, which has the smallest positive margin, we lost by three. Perhaps that is an indicator that in those scenarios where the differential is close to zero, predictability goes out the window.

To add, here is the progression so far of average plays per game, yards per play and average margin under Hoke:

YEAR	AVG. NO. OF PLAYS /GAME	AVG. YPP.	AVG. YPP DIFF.	AVG. MARGIN
2011	64.92	6.29	1.17	15.92
2012	63.08	6.11	1.11	10.00
2013	68.00	6.02	0.99	10.88

The table tells a small but intriguing tale really – we are averaging more plays but not quite getting as far with them. We’ve talked about it a lot on the boards, of course, but there it is. Interestingly, the average score margin has stayed somewhat stable from last year into this one.

I don’t really have a definite conclusion here. This team is a work in progress and will be for a bit longer perhaps. I simply find these numbers / beginnings of trends (I hesitate to call them “trends” right now) kind of interesting.

I am going through the seven stages of grief after DEBACLE (not that DEBACLE). I am somewhere between the stage three and four and trying real hard to make sense of it all.

One of the common excuse for our poor performance has been that our offensive line is so young that we should have expected (historically) bad performance out of them.

But is our offensive line REALLY that young? I have yet to see anyone quantify exactly how young our offensive line is compared to other top programs. So, I figured I'd do it myself, thinking that it will help me through my grieving process...

It just ended up making it worse.

I looked at the offensive line depth (from Rival) of every team in AP Top 25 and noted how young/old they are. I then assigned point values - one for frosh, 1.5 for redshirt frosh, 2 for sophomore, 2.5 for redshirt sophomore, and so on. Using this method, Michigan boasts an average line experience of 2.8. How does that compare to other schools?

Here is the complete list of Top 25 schools with 3 or less experience value.

Top 25 Offensive Line Experience

Team	Position	Name	Year	Value	Average Exp
Michigan	OT	Taylor Lewan	RSR	4.5	2.8
Michigan	OT	Michael Schofield	RSR	4.5
Michigan	OG	Kyle Kalis	RFR	1.5
Michigan	OG	Kyle Bosch	FR	1
Michigan	C	Graham Glasgow	RSO	2.5
Stanford	OT	Andrus Peat	RFR	1.5	2.7
Stanford	OT	Cameron Fleming	RSO	2.5
Stanford	OG	David Yankey	RSO	2.5
Stanford	OG	Kevin Danser	RJR	3.5
Stanford	C	Khalil Wilkes	RJR	3.5
Baylor	OT	Spencer Drango	RFR	1.5	2.7
Baylor	OT	Kevin Palmer	RJR	3.5
Baylor	OG	Cyril Richardson	RJR	3.5
Baylor	OG	Desmine Hilliard	RFR	1.5
Baylor	C	Stefan Huber	RJR	3.5
Clemson	OT	Brandon Thomas	RJR	3.5	2.7
Clemson	OT	Gifford Timothy	RSO	2.5
Clemson	OG	David Beasley	RSO	2.5
Clemson	OG	Tyler Shatley	RJR	3.5
Clemson	C	Ryan Norton	RFR	1.5
Auburn	OT	Greg Robinson	SO	2	2.3
Auburn	OT	Patrick Miller	SO	2
Auburn	OG	Alex Kozan	RFR	1.5
Auburn	OG	Chad Slade	JR	3
Auburn	C	Reese Dismukes	JR	3
SC	OT	Corey Robinson	RJR	3.5	3
SC	OT	Brandon Shell	RSO	2.5
SC	OG	AJ Cann	RJR	3.5
SC	OG	Ronald Patrick	SR	4
SC	C	Cody Waldrop	RFR	1.5
LSU	OT	La'el Collins	RSO	2.5	2.3
LSU	OT	Jerald Hawkins	RFR	1.5
LSU	OG	Vadal Alexander	RFR	1.5
LSU	OG	Trai Turner	RSO	2.5
LSU	C	Elliott Porter	RJR	3.5
Texas A&M	OT	Jake Matthews	JR	3	2.7
Texas A&M	OT	Cedric Ogbuehi	RJR	3.5
Texas A&M	OG	Jarvis Harrison	RJR	3.5
Texas A&M	OG	Germain Ifedi	RFR	1.5
Texas A&M	C	Mike Matthews	SO	2
UCLA	OT	Simon Goines	SO	2	1.9
UCLA	OT	Caleb Benenoch	FR	1
UCLA	OG	Xavier Su'a-Filo	JR	3
UCLA	OG	Alex Redmond	FR	1
UCLA	C	Jake Brendel	RSO	2.5
ND	OT	Zack Martin	RSR	4.5	3
ND	OT	Ronnie Stanley	SO	2
ND	OG	Chris Watt	RSR	4.5
ND	OG	Steve Elmer	FR	1
ND	C	Nick Martin	JR	3

As you can see above, there are 9 teams in top 25 with 3 years or less average experience. A few, including LSU and UCLA have offensive line that is SIGNIFICANTLY younger than Michigan. Amazingly, even with those very young offensive line with freshmen and sophomores, they have managed not to have historically bad offenses with competent rushing attack.

Based on this data, I think blaming our offensive line woes just on experience is not correct. It does not help, but lack of experience does not automatically mean that they will bad. When you have two NFL tackles, you should be able to perform at least average, if not better.

Oh dear. That was terrible, wasn’t it? Like some sort of Lovecraftian nightmare born of burning mattresses and Faygo. But give credit where credit’s due: that was not only the best defense we’ve seen this year, it’s the best we’ve seen since Alabama in 2012 and easily the best of Mark Dantonio’s tenure at Michigan State. Those guys were all really good and all knew exactly where to be on nearly every play. We were overmatched, the way they used to be overmatched against us.

That 2012 win is starting to look a bit like the stray years when they’d beat us, back in days before Cthulu cursed us with endless transition.

 

What We Learned About Ourselves

Most of the griping has focused on the offense, and our seemingly endless series of drives in the opposite direction. Yes, that was bad. But I’d like to suggest—again—that our defense shares the blame for our underwhelming performance to a larger degree than most people seem to think.

I’ve complained about us not covering the middle of the field before, but the MSU game just made it even clearer: we cannot cover the middle of the field. As in, ever. Not even when we drop 7 or 8 guys into coverage. Especially when we drop 7 or 8 guys into coverage.

Some of this is personnel-based. Both our middle linebackers and our safeties are missing assignments, and I hate to single guys out, but Joe Bolden has been particularly bad in pass coverage. But at this point we’ve seen everyone feast on our soft belly—from Akron’s subpar receivers to Indiana’s good ones, from Minnesota’s and PSU’s average TEs (Maxxxxxx!) to basically anyone with a green jersey who is both eligible to catch passes and has not been smearing butter on their hands between plays. At this point, you have to conclude that the problem isn’t just a lack of talent, but also very much schematic. As in, why the hell are we still using a scheme that our inexperienced defense can’t really run?

Granted, spread/up-tempo and MANBALL MAX PROTECT teams present different challenges. Statistically, we’re worse against spread/up-tempo. And theoretically speaking, MANBALL MAX PROTECT plays to our strength, i.e. stopping the inside run game. Be that as it may, it just so happens that our offense has also been much better against spread/up-tempo teams’ defenses, and should continue to be as we move on toe Nebraska and Northwestern. The teams on our schedule who play MANBALL MAX PROTECT generally play better defense, and so we can’t rely as heavily on our offense to win these games for us.

This is exactly why I find our passive, “bend-but-don’t-break” defensive strategy so frustrating. We may not have a defense on par with MSU, but as Seth noted after the PSU game, we perform better against MANBALL MAX PROTECT offenses when we bring pressure. We are horrible when we let opposing QBs sit back and brew a pot of tea. Yet we keep on doing it, and they keep on making completions over the middle. MSU was just the latest and most painful edition of this sad panda story.

(Making matters worse, MSU could very well have scored more points than they did, had their receivers not dropped so many catchable balls. All this against what had hitherto been considered a pretty terrible offense.)

 

Yes, but FIRE BORGES!

Well, I wish I could say otherwise, because I find the haterade offensive more than a bit annoying. But the offense, after two weeks preparation, was worse than ever. We did manage to move the ball somewhat in the first half…until, that is, Dantonio and Narduzzi figured out that they could just send the house every down and there was nothing our terrible offensive line and unconvincing-play-action-based-scheme could do about it. Some of the problem, again, was personnel-based—our offensive line is and remains a tire fire. And MSU has the best defense we’ve played and will play this year. Nothing we put out there was going to look great, and the past two years provide evidence that neither under-center nor shotgun formations are going to produce a lot of points against MSU.

But this was the pits. The contrast between our O-line and their D-line has never been starker. Even usually reliable Lewan spent the day missing assignments and picking up unnecessary penalties. And goddamn it—as ineffective as our shotgun formations were, at least Gardner could see the rush coming and go backwards less often. I’ll have nightmares about negative yardage for weeks. 

 

Looking Forward

The bad news is that we’ve now eliminated Storm of Swords as well, making Game of Thrones the unlikely top category. We also now have a problem, since there are only two books remaining for five distinct outcomes, none of which are impossible anymore. I guess should have added The Hedge Knight and some other crappy tie-in. I was, like a lot of people, unrealistically optimistic before the season began.

The good news is that we won’t see another defense like that in the regular season, and probably not in a bowl game either. We also won’t likely see a defense like that in East Lansing next year, given turnover. But we will see Iowa, a team that is a rough approximation, or at least the philosophical kin, of MSU. And we play them on the road, in a place where we usually lose. I’m feeling less and less confident about that one.

 

How This Affects the Math

This was my mid-season algorithm:

5.00 + 2(.67) + .60 + 2(.40) + .25 = 7.98

Replace Indiana (.67) with a win (1.00) and MSU (.40) with a loss and you get:

6.00 + .67 +.60 + .40 + .25 = 7.92

As you can see, going 1 for 2 with Indiana and MSU doesn’t really affect the model. But, to be honest, I see some reasons to tinker.

Given not only our struggles with PSU and MSU on the road, but also how we struggled against PSU and MSU, I see us having similar troubles at Iowa. Downgraded to sub-tossup (.40).

The other two pre-Ohio matchups, Nebraska and Northwestern, feel less scary. We should move the ball easily on both. We will, however, have some trouble stopping them from doing the same. But Nebraska is at home, minus Martinez, and Northwestern is in some sort of death spiral. Nebraska stays at tossup-plus (.60) and Northwestern, which is kind of a road game, gets upgraded to tossup (.50).

And then there’s Ohio. Nothing’s changed there—we still have a puncher’s chance (.25), given the crappiness of their secondary and the fact that we play them in Ann Arbor. We can win this one, if everything aligns for us and doesn’t align for them. Weirder things have happened, after all. Then again, weirder things don’t happen very often.

Take those changes into account and you get:

6(1.00) + 2(0.00) + 0.40 + 0.60 + 0.50 + 0.25 = 7.75 wins.

Eh...not so different. Still predicts a 7-9 win season, with 8 wins more likely than 7, but 7 more likely than 9.

(Updated) Song of Ice and Fire Scenarios

1. A Clash of Kings.

Scenario: Non-stop action and death dealing! Our offensive line grows up quickly, and the move from experience to talent proves fundamental to a revitalized ground game, while Devin Gardner gets enough pass protection to tear up the Big 10’s mostly mediocre defenses. Meanwhile, we hold serve on run defense and even improve against the pass, which is enough to stymie the few good offenses we face. We stare down an invasion from Stannis Baratheon Urban Meyer and repel him with our wildfire defense and an epic flanking movement passing offense.

Record: 12-0. We run the table and get to the Big 10 Championship Game, where we probably face Ohio for the second time in a week. A BCS bowl is a lock.

Probability: P = .05. Essentially, this would be our equivalent of what Notre Dame did last year, and would require a similar amount of luck and collapsing of the once-scary opponents (in our case Ohio and Sparty, in their case Oklahoma and USC). The Clash of Kings scenario is more likely than running the table was in 2012, but still not exactly likely. Ohio is going to be good, and though we can certainly beat them, Sparty is always fired up against us and especially when playing at home. Plus there’s uncertainty tied to the rest of the road games—are we talented, experienced and lucky enough to not blow any of them and still beat all the rivals? Maybe, but probably not. P=.00.

FIRST UPDATE: Eliminated. We don’t have a “revitalized ground game” and our pass defense is terrible.

2. A Storm of Swords

Scenario: We go red wedding on the Big 10 but get caught with our pants down in the toilet at one inopportune moment. Everything else from scenario #1 still applies.

Record: 11-1. We either run the table up to The Game or beat Ohio and lose to one of the other likely candidates. We probably get a Big 10 Championship Game out of it, though that would depend on the others; either way we still get our best regular season since 1997.

Probability: P = .15. Okay, now we’re talking plausible-ish! Of course, all the disclaimers for scenario #1 apply here as well, with the caveat that we’re allowed our one bad day. That automatically makes it more likely, as even Alabama has had that over the past two years. Unfortunately, I see too many question marks on the roster to really get behind this scenario: an inexperienced interior O-line, no clear sense of whether we’ll get a pass rush, questions of whether Countess, Fitz and Ryan can return to form after rehabbing from serious injuries, etc. While I do expect these things to turn out well, when the entirety of the season is considered, they may not manifest positively in each and every game. 

FIRST UPDATE: P=.01. Still technically possible, but as Brian likes to say, CUMONG MAN. See above.

SECOND UPDATE: Eliminated. CUMONG MAN.

3. A Game of Thrones

Scenario: Taut. Gripping. Tantalizing yet never delivering that crucial victory. We are generally awesome, and kick some ass in the Whispering Wood The Game/Conquest of the Juggalos, but run into a few roadblocks on the way.

Record: 10-2. Likely losses = 1 of Sparty/Ohio and 1 more from your “tossups,” “likely-buts” and ND. Whether we win the Legends Division in its final year depends on whom we lose to and how they do over the course of the season. Just like it did in 2011.

Probability: P = .30. Though the rational part of my brain is a bit more conservative, the enthusiastic, emotional fan part feels as if this is the way things will play out. It just keeps repeating “schedule, schedule, the schedule is faaaavorable” until I believe it’s more true than “roster, roster, the roster is inexpeeerienced.”

FIRST UPDATE: P=.10. This could happen. I mean, it’s not likely, but the whole scenario was predicated on 1 loss against Sparty/Ohio and 1 from the tossup category, which included PSU. A guy can dream, right?

SECOND UPDATE: P=.01. Sure. Mabye toothfairy is real too.

4. A Feast for Crows

Scenario: A mostly enjoyable ride that ultimately doesn’t live up to hopes and expectations.

Record: 9-3. I’d guess this means we lose ¾ out of the “likely-but” and “tossup” games. An early loss to ND (considering we don’t have Ryan and will be working out experience issues on the O-line) is not out of the realm of possibility either.

Probability: P = .35. Unfortunately, but not too unfortunately, the math suggests this is the most likely scenario, slightly beating out the more palatable 10-2 (since both of the estimates produce predicted win totals under 10). It would still constitute a bit of progress from 2012, though. That’s good. But it will probably produce a cavalcade of obnoxious “I told you so” columns from everyone’s “favorite” Freep columnist that evince a total disregard for logic and rationality. That’s bad.

FIRST UPDATE: P=.20.  Very much still in the running, but has gone from the center point of the probability distribution to the right slope. We’d have to win all the games we should win (Indiana, Nebraska and Iowa) and one of the ones we’re not in good position for at the moment (Sparty, Northwestern or Ohio). Doable, but remember--we almost lost back-to-back games against Akron and UCONN.
 
SECOND UPDATE: P=.19. Everything else said in the first update remains true, in large part thanks to Northwestern's steady decline, hence why I haven't crossed it out.

5. A Dance with Dragons

Scenario: Where are we going? Why is this Quentyn Martell section [insert player] injury rehab taking so long to resolve? Why is this Jon Snow/Danaerys storyline offense so boring and listless?

Record: 8-4 or lower [let’s say 7-5 even though I didn’t do that at the time] Things just don’t go as planned. Maybe that’s due to an injury, or maybe something just doesn’t work on offense and we don’t have Denard to bail us out with his legs.

Probability: .15. Last year we went 8-4 in the regular season, having played eventual national champion Alabama (away), eventual runner-up Notre Dame (away), eventual undefeated Ohio (away) and a decent-ish Nebraska team (away) after losing Denard and not, apparently, wanting to put Devin in. The idea that we’ll do the same or worse when there’s no Alabama, a crappier Notre Dame at home, Nebraska at home and Ohio at home strikes me as unlikely. But it isn’t impossible to imagine either, especially considering our lack of depth at key positions cough quarterback cough.

FIRST UPDATE: P=.50. The offense is boring and listless, unless you count "not knowing if we will run the plays that usually get us yards, or go with the plays that almost always end in TFLs" as excitement. The whole “maybe something just doesn’t work on offense and we don’t have Denard to bail us out with his legs” thing is half right, because Devin does just fine with his legs. Too bad our coaches think we play in Tuscaloosa and have 8 years of oversigned, 4/5 star-rich recruiting classes to work with.

SECOND UPDATE: P=.45. Well, since I've separated out 7-5, this goes down, but it had to happen so don't shoot me. The offense is boring and listless, unless you count "not knowing if we will run the plays that usually get us yards, or go with the plays that almost always end in TFLs" as excitement. We're just good enough to beat all the teams we should beat, and none of the ones we aren't. Too bad our coaches think we play in Tuscaloosa and have 8 years of oversigned, 4/5 star-rich recruiting classes to work with.

 

6. The Hedge Knight

Scenario: Have you ever heard of this? It's a fairly bad story about some characters who Aegon Targaryen mentions a few times while delusional. I read it in 2010. I think we played in a bowl game that year, but I can't remember how it turned out.

Record: 7-5. Third-rate garbage time-waster.

Probability: .30. Blech.

 

6. George R. R. Martin’s Secret Viserys/Joffrey Slash Fiction

Scenario: It’s 2009 again, yo!

Record: 6-6 or 5-7. We go 1-5 or 0-6 over the last stretch. Someone on the staff gets fired.

Probability: .10. Yes, we have to entertain this possibility now.*
 

The Long Game

Okay, by now you are familiar with my thoughts about this year--disappointing. But there are reasons to be optimistic about the long-term health of the program. We are 6-2 right now, and young as hell. Sure those losses are frustrating, and better gameplanning might have produced a win over PSU and a less embarrassing loss to MSU. But structurally we are not a great team. We are too young, too inexperienced and our coaching staff is focused on creating structural advantages rather than schematic ones. It's disappointing that we can't do both, but you don't always need to--at least on both sides of the ball. Both Alabama and Stanford play disciplined, smart defense and pair that with solid-plus offenses. They are now fixtures in the top 10. This is what we are aiming for, and by the way recruiting is going, we will arrive there in 2 years. I know everyone wants to be good now--I do too--and this doesn't take away from the disappointment many of us feel at the moment.

But it's not worth getting carried away. Hoke is safe through 2015. Mattison is also safe through 2015, in part because of how far he's brought us from the GERGian depths and in part because the defense is even younger and less experienced than the offense, overall. Funk is also probably not as terrible an OL coach as many of you assume, and will likely be back next year.

As for Borges...well, I don't know. He may end up reproducing his success from UCLA and Auburn here once all the pieces are in place, and this style of offense does succeed in many places. That said, I think it's clear that he wasn't the right OC hire for this transition period. The question is: what do Hoke and Brandon do now? A move to the NFL wouldn't completely surprise me. Nor would retaining him and seeing if he can finish the job.

Either way, I'm just trying to make it to 2015 with my sanity intact.

 

 

I decided to make as much sense as I could from what is available online regarding OL coach Darrell Funk’s time with Coach Hoke.  I didn’t get into Funk’s time with Colorado State, because he wasn’t with Hoke then and because I don’t have the time.  We’re all pretty familiar with the story of what’s happened since the two coaches arrived in Ann Arbor, so I also omitted that.  What is below, then, is the story of Funk and Hoke at Ball State and San Diego State – as least as best as I can piece it together.  As you’ll see, I often rely on general offensive statistics, because there are of course few (if any) statistics available for just an offensive line.

A final initial note:  Anyone with more chart and graph-making ability than me is more than welcome to turn the stats below into charts/graphs. 

Final initial note part II:  I can't get the spacing below fixed. Apologies.    

Introductory Thought:

Before I start, I want to point out something that we shouldn’t lose sight of when analyzing the information below.  Namely, players (and coaches, for matter) are not the same from year-to-year.  College football players – being human beings and college kids – go through ups and downs that no coach can control.  Those ups and downs are the result of health problems (or a lack of them), family trouble (or a lack of it), dating drama (or a lack of it), academic trouble (or a lack of it), partying too much (or not at all), committing to offseason training (or slacking off), etc.  A foot is always twelve inches, but Johnny Offensive Tackle may not have been the same guy in 2011 that he was in 2012.  Accordingly, we never have a perfect point of reference when comparing Johnny’s performance under his 2011 coach to his performance under his 2012 coach.

 

2008: Funk arrives at Ball State

Funk was only Brady Hoke’s OL coach for one year at Ball State.  In fact, he didn’t coach the entire O-line that year.  Funk coached the OGs and centers in 2008, but John Powers coached the tackles (and tight ends).  This was something of a demotion for Powers, who coached the BSU O-line by himself in 2006 and 2007.*

The story of the 2008 Ball State offense begins in 2005, when BSU’s offense pretty much sucked.  It averaged 299 yards per game and 21.1 points per game, the latter good for 94^thnationally.  Things picked up in 2006, with the offense generating 351.3 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, the latter being 39^thin the country.  The offense improved yet again in 2007, gaining 433.8 yards per game (including 148.9 per game at 4.1 ypc on the ground, an improvement of 57 ypg) and scoring 31.5 points per game (40^thnationally). 

In 2008, BSU went 12-2.  The offense improved slightly in total yards, 442.5 yards per game, and impressively in rushing yards, gaining 184.5 per game (5.0 ypc).  It also improved slightly in scoring, putting up points at rate of 34.9 per game.

In 2009, with Funk and Hoke in San Diego, the BSU offense took a major step back, gaining 293.8 yards per game and scoring 19.2 points per game (108^thin the country).  This presumably was caused in large part by the loss of QB Nate Davis, who declared early for the NFL draft and was taken in the 5^thround by San Francisco.  It was also presumably a result of the loss of several offensive linemen, who are discussed below.  It’s worth noting that BSU did not lose its leading rusher (MiQuale Lewis) in 2009, and its rushing attack fell off to 159.4 yards per game, which was a relatively small decline compared to that of the passing attack (which withered to 134.4 yards per game).

*Interestingly, Powers was retained by new Ball State HC Stan Parrish in 2009, but he did not coach the O-line.

 

Who were Funk’s OLs at Ball State?

Funk’s starting line was OT Robert Brewster, OG Kreg Hunter, C Dan Gerberry, OG Michael Switzer, and OT Andre Ramsey.  It was an experienced group, albeit one that left high school with little publicity.  Information for each is listed below.    

Andre Ramsey:

Not rated coming out of high school in 2005.

A true senior in 2008 (i.e., no red shirt).

Essentially a four-year starter.

First-team all-MAC in 2008.

Made several NFL rosters but has been a journeyman.

 

Michael Switzer:

A two-star player per Scout in 2007.

A true sophomore in 2008.

A new starter in 2008.

No all-conference honors in 2008.

Appears to have made it to an NFL training camp but no more.

 

Dan Gerberry:

Not rated coming out of high school in 2004.

A redshirt senior in 2008.

A four-year starter. 

First-team all-MAC in 2008.

Was on the Lions' roster for a couple of years. 

 

Kreg Hunter:

A two-star player per Scout in 2007.

A redshirt freshman in 2008.

A new starter in 2008.

No conference honors in 2008.

Doesn’t appear to have had a pro career.

 

Robert Brewster:

A two-star player per Scout in 2005.

A true senior in 2008.

A four-year starter.

First-team all-MAC and Outland Watchlist in 2008.

(He may have been first-team all-MAC in 2007 too.)

Drafted in third round of NFL draft but only played one game before being cut.

 

Various things to consider when making sense of Funk’s time at BSU:

*There were only 92 MAC players on NFL squads at the start of 2012 (I couldn’t find the number for this year), and only 16 of them were OLs.  These numbers – 92 and 16 – include players who played for teams that were in the MAC during the players’ careers but are not in the conference any longer (Temple, for example).  This means that – by including those former MAC teams – there was only one OL per MAC school in the NFL at the start of 2012. 

*Gerberry (not-rated redshirt senior), Ramsey (not-rated redshirt senior), and Brewster (two-star true senior) made up three-quarters of the all-MAC OL in 2008 as decided by the conference.  Scout omitted Gerberry from its all-conference team (I can't find the non-BSU members of the team awarded by the conference itself), which was made up of Brewster, Ramsey, and three seniors, one of whom was a two-star and two of whom were unrated coming out of high school. 

 

2010: Hoke and Funk go to San Diego State

Funk was Hoke’s only OL coach during his two years at SDSU.  They inherited an offense that moved that ball at only a 312.4 ypg clip and scored at a rate of only 19.2 ppg (104^thin the nation) in 2008, though they also inherited future stand-out QB Ryan Lindley.  The team particularly struggled to run the ball, gaining only 73.2 rushing per game vs. 239.2 passing. 

In 2009, the SDSU offense improved to 341.1 ypg, with most of that improvement coming through the air (263.6 ypg passing vs. 78.3 ypg rushing).  The offense scored 23.3 points per game, good for 85^thin the country.  Additionally, the OL gave up only the 16^th-fewest sacks in the nation.

In 2010, SDSU’s offense took off.  Future third round pick Ronnie Hillman (RB) joined a unit that gained 456.7 ypg.  The offense gained more yards both passing (295.4 ypg) and rushing (161.3 ypg) than it did in 2009.  It also scored 35 ppg, good for 19^thin the country. Also, the OL shined even more in pass protection than it did the prior year, yielding only the sixth-fewest sacks allowed in the country.

In 2011, with Hoke and Funk at Michigan, SDSU gained 427.4 ypg (242.9 passing/184.5 rushing).  They scored 29.5 ppg, which was 47^thin the country.  It’s worth noting that they lost relatively few players – a starting OL and both starting WRs – between 2010 and 2011.  That said, those WRs took 2572 yards in receiving with them when they left campus. 

 

Who were Funk’s OLs at SDSU?

In 2009, SDSU started OT Tommie Draheim, OG Emilio Rivera, C Trask Iosefa, OG Ikaika Aken-Moleta, and OT Peter Nelson.  In 2010, that unit became Draheim, OG Mike Matamua, Iosefa, Rivera, and OT Kurtis Gunther.  Information for each is listed below.

Tommie Draheim:

A two-star prospect in 2007 per Scout.

A redshirt sophomore in 2009/a redshirt junior in 2010.

A first-year starter in 2009/second-year in 2010.

All-Mountain West first team in 2011.

Has been in and out of the NFL and is now with the Chiefs.

 

Emilio Rivera:

A two-star prospect in 2007 per Scout.

A redshirt sophomore in 2009/a redshirt junior in 2010.

A first-year starter in 2009/second-year in 2010.

No conference honors that I found. 

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Trask Iosefa:

A two-star prospect in 2005 per Scout.

A redshirt junior in 2009/redshirt senior in 2010.

A four-year starter.

All-Mountain West second team in 2010.

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Ikaika Aken-Moleta:

A three-star prospect in 2005 per Scout.

A redshirt senior in 2009.

Apparently a second-year starter in 2009.

No conference honors that I found. 

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Peter Nelson:

A walk-on in the class of 2005.

A redshirt senior in 2009.

Apparently a first-year starter in 2009.

No conference honors that I found. 

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Mike Matamua:

An unranked (no-star) prospect in 2007 per Scout.

A redshirt sophomore in 2009/redshirt junior in 2010.

A first-year starter in 2009/second-year in 2010.

No conference honors that I found. 

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Kurtis Gunther:

A two-star prospect in 2007 per Scout.

A true junior in 2009/senior in 2010.

A first-year starter in 2010.

No conference honors that I found. 

Apparently no NFL career.

 

Various things to consider when making sense of Funk’s time at SDSU:

*The MWC apparently had 150 players on NFL rosters at the start of the 2012 season (again I couldn’t find the numbers for this year).  I could not find how many of those are OLs.

*The 2010 all-MWC first team O-line was made up of a 24-year old four-star redshirt junior, three two-star redshirt seniors, and a redshirt senior who entered college as an unranked DT per Scout. 

*The 2010 all-MWC second team was made up of a 24-year old two-star junior, a three-star true junior, a 24-year old redshirt junior who entered college as an unranked DE per Scout, a true senior who apparently entered college unranked, and Trask Iosefa.

 

Conclusion:

I don’t see any obvious and firm conclusions that one can draw from what’s above other than that it’s good to have experienced O-lineman – 24-year olds if you can get them!  As I mentioned above, it’s very hard to separate the success of an offense from the success of an offensive line.  Was Funk a better coach because he had Ryan Lindley, Nate Davis, MiQuale Lewis, and Ronnie Hillman? 

Funk hasn’t been a miracle worker, but Funk, Coach Hoke, Coach Wellman, and former BSU OL coach John Powers put together some apparently high-functioning lines at BSU and SDSU.  The group they put together at BSU had greater personal success than did the group at SDSU, but at both schools the coaches in question (with and later without Powers) oversaw dramatic offensive improvement at various points.  

THE BIG TEN IS UNKIND TO US SOMETIMES: WEEKLY SUMMARY

So…well….how is everyone?

One thing I have changed at the request of a few people is that Michigan’s averages are now highlighted in yellow. Hopefully, this will make it easier for anyone who reads this simply to get a gauge on Michigan, but also for those who want the immediate picture of where Michigan football within the Big Ten on these metrics.

SCORING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

There isn’t a lot of movement here even despite our own Saturday – we still sit in a group of teams that can definitely score a fair amount, so there is that at least. Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin and Nebraska round out that group, or more precisely, we round out the group they are in. Michigan sits comfortably behind Northwestern when it comes to scoring defense, a little south of the conference mean.

TOTAL OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

The Michigan State game was definitely not our best moment, but hey, look at the numbers, right? Actually, we’re doing OK here as a team. We gain yards at about the average pace of the conference and we are above average on defense. The deeper dive, however, is in the tempo-free area and you can see there that while we’re in positive territory, it isn’t by a lot.

RUSHING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

For Michigan specifically, it is the same story that it has been all year and you can see it below – we have trouble running the ball consistently and now wished that sacks did not count against rushing yardage in the NCAA. However, we’re still pretty good at stopping the run. We played a team on Saturday, however, that gives up less than half of what we do on the ground, and that’s saying a lot.

PASSING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

As we figured would occur with Gardner at the helm, we’re pretty decent through the air and have the 4th most prolific passing attack in the Big Ten. On the other hand, those of us who have chewed our cuticles to the knuckle over the pass rush will not want to look at the passing defense average below. We are sitting right between Northwestern and Indiana right now.

THIRD DOWN DIFFERENTIAL:

Michigan took a tumble in this metric after Saturday, so this will not look very pretty either for some. We were near the top in converting third downs for most of the season actually, and we fell all the way to 8th place in the conference. The differential will show that we’re starting to fight this battle to a near-draw, which is a little worrisome.

FIRST DOWNS:

We still average more first downs than we allow, but the gap here has also narrowed after this past Saturday.

SPECIAL TEAMS: