Thank you all for coming along for another season with me! This is one of my favorite things to do every Fall. :) We'll start our weekend with relatively quiet weather conditions and hopefully adding a win to our list of things we're thankful for! A low pressure system well to the north will bring a cold front through Friday night. It looks to be a mainly dry front, bringing us clouds, and a few spotty showers overnight. A secondary cold front coming through in the afternoon will keep us cool & breezy Saturday with plenty of clouds and scattered showers/flurries. Let's go blue!  

Tailgating

Temperatures won't be too bad overnight and if you're up and out there early! Thanks to SW winds holding for most of the overnight, we'll start the day in the mid 40s. Winds will shift to the WNW early in the morning at around 10mph (enough to rustle the leaves, blow around paper) and give us wind chills in the mid 30s. Fantastic day for all of those crockpot recipes! Winds will pick up into the afternoon, so especially if you're leaving your tent up through the game, you'll want to tie it down. Sunrise time is just after 7:30am, but don't expect to see a whole ton of it. Mostly cloudy conditions will carry through our tailgate time, and there's a small chance for a passing rain shower. 

Kickoff

44 degrees for this lunchtime start! Not too bad - pretty close to where we should be for this time of year. Plenty of clouds remain for the first half, and some drizzle or a pop up shower continues to be a slight possibility. Winds will pick up to 15mph, gusting to the mid 20s - you'd see a lot of white horses on the water, small trees will sway - out of the WNW. This will take our temps and make it feel like the mid 30s!   

Halftime

Bummer we couldn't have our beautiful Friday weather today - but this is Midwest football right? We're tough! Aaaand we also know that the bulk box of hand warmers at Costco is the way to go this time of year. We drop a degree or two by the half and into the second part of the game. It'll continue to feel colder with wind chills remaining in the mid 30s. I'll take a hot chocolate at the break for this one! NW winds are up around 15-17mph, gusting to the mid 20s (you may catch an empty plastic garbage can tipped over with gusts like this). We'll get a little sun, but some clouds will stay with us as we finish out the game. The chance for a spotty shower hangs on.  

Post-Game

Temperatures will continue to fall as we leave the stadium. 40 for that walk to the car (feeling like the low 30s), and if you're planning on grabbing some dinner, we'll drop to the mid 30s (wind chill of 30) - but we do at least get rid of the wind gusts. We'll have some breaks in the cloud cover, and that will help us to turn cold quickly through the night. By the later evening hours temps will be in the lower 30s. Staying out late? You'll be wishing those hand warmers still worked if you're stuck outside waiting for that one friend who takes forever. We're near 30 temperature-wise, but wind chills will have it feeling closer to 20! Yuck. Winds will be at around 10mph out of the WNW. They will remain at around 5-10mph for Sunday when we'll get some sun and see highs back in the low 40s - great travel weather! Go blue!

 

Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!

Even though we still have the Ohio State game to go, we are already sitting wherever we are and taking stock of 2017 and needless to say, there is measurable frustration. I definitely understand it, and I definitely share it with people, but even at all that, I still am thankful that we have Jim Harbaugh as a head coach and I still do believe that overall, the program is headed in the right direction despite a rather up and down sort of season this year and our most hated rival coming into town in just a few short days.

First and foremost, I want people to know that no matter how much I bitch about this place on Twitter and even on this site from time to time, I still strangely enjoy being one of your moderators and I still strangely enjoy being able to help keep some version of order in the MGoCommunity that exists here. It isn’t perfect, but I like to think I occasionally impart some of my level-headed nature onto the community. There are times, as some of you might know, where I have thought about giving up on it, but I am also thankful for the role I’ve taken on here and it is difficult to imagine not doing it in some capacity. Even knowing that I am not the most popular person around here in some circles (not that I really care about that, of course – I kind of revel in being bitched about honestly), I still like to think that I’ve been helpful in some capacity.

Those of us who will be in Ann Arbor on Saturday are going to walk into Michigan Stadium, thankful that we are fans of this great school and this team and we will cheer for them, come what may. If you are like me and you follow the advanced statistics and enjoy creating probability matrices, you know that it is entirely possible that it will not be a happy Saturday. That being said, we are a hopeful lot and all of us know football is weird and ultimately anything is possible even if all the numbers say it isn’t terribly likely. We will be there all the same. We will be united as fans in our love for Michigan and our wish that they should, all goes well, beat the living shit out of Ohio State every year.

As we sit with our families and friends over this holiday, we’ll be thankful that we are where we are and we will be thankful that we have the support system that we do, but we will also be thankful that there is booze and football and we can walk into a room somewhere out of the way and watch some football, even if it isn’t Michigan football necessarily. For many of us, things like football are refuge and we are definitely thankful for that. Of course, as we get comfortable, we’ll suddenly be reminded that something is either cold, missing, undercooked, or whatever. At least there is football on the TV and, if you’re like me, you’ve left instructions on what to do in the kitchen after you’ve taken yourself off duty over and above the wishes of others.

I like to think that most the blog regulars are thankful that they can interact with a highly engaged and tuned in group of Michigan fans who spend an unhealthy amount of time obsessing about the same program that they do and know the rosters and coaches and even individual games going back decades from end to end and era to era. It is difficult to find that on other Michigan blogs, and really, other Big Ten and even other conference blogs. One of the biggest indicators of passion, in my opinion, is how much you know about a program, and I don’t think you’ll find a more informed and educated segment of the Michigan fanbase on all things Michigan than you’ll find here.

We’ll survive Saturday either way, we will all be here for basketball, softball, baseball and the rest and even in the OT season, we’re all here for the latest on books and movies and anything else people want to discuss because it does get a bit thin in the May-July timeframe. That’s the part of this community that I have always enjoyed, that we do not disperse when there is not much in the way of sports going on. This is a community that is diverse enough that you can find an audience for just about anything. I realize that this isn’t popular with all of you, but it is one of the things that I believe makes the MGoCommunity a very special and endlessly entertaining place indeed.

So, Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. I’ll be here throughout the holiday, but if I don’t respond to any crisis right away, it’s because my family inspires me to drink. That’s why they are only over here a few times a year, right?

-LSAClassOf2000

That sucked. It started as a hard-hitting Big Ten rock fight with Michigan giving Wisconsin all it could handle. Then it dissolved into another miserable and hard to watch affair as Peters went down with a concussion and the team lost its mojo. On paper Michigan did pretty well; Peters had his most promising outing despite a couple of mistakes and the defense kept Wisconsin’s high-powered tailback in check for most of the game. Heck, with a couple of breaks (thanks replay guys!) the outcome could have been very different.

But things went the way they did and from a fan’s perspective it mostly just sucked. This week’s game satisfaction clocked in at a whopping 28.8, down almost 50 points from the past three weeks, slotting in just ahead of the Penn State debacle.

Figure 1. Wisconsin Game Satisfaction

Unsurprisingly, season satisfaction also took a nosedive, dipping to 36.3 after camping out near 70 the past two weeks. At this point most fans seem to be grappling with the cold hard truth that Michigan is likely to end the season 8-4 and without any quality wins (in fact, without a win over a team with a winning record).

Figure 2. Season Satisfaction after Maryland

This brings up an interesting point about fan psychology. Before the season started a lot of analysts, including our own Ecky Pting, predicted Michigan would go 8-4 this year and would have trouble doing better than 9-3. Michigan was rebuilding on both sides of the ball, had tough games on the road against Penn State and Wisconsin, and beating Ohio State is always a challenge. In theory, then, fans should be relatively sanguine about going 8-4. Most fans, of course, are decidedly not sanguine about it. Many of them are losing their shit. The threads and comments this past week have been a mess.

There are many reasons for this psychosis. The most basic reason is that fans are not rational. Emotions don’t obey the laws of analysis and logic. Just look at Michigan Twitter during a loss if you doubt that statement. Feeling better than warranted after crappy wins and worse than warranted after tough losses on the road to the #5 team in the nation is just what it means to be a fan.

Somewhat more specifically, though, I think fans have problems setting expectations. They look at the fancy stats analysis that provides a rational and compelling case for an 8-4 prediction and then they immediately imagine all the ways in which Michigan could beat the prediction. Speight will be better than last year; the receivers are young but more talented; MSU will suck because they lost all those guys; we play OSU at home this year, etc. Pretty soon the fan is screwed because 10-2, not 8-4, has now become his or her emotional baseline for success. I know this because I am one of these people. I can know in my head that 8-4 is a sign of progress, but my heart will still bleed at the failure to go 10-2 (or better, really).

Themes, Thoughts, Trends

I Am Too Rational!

Okay, fine. Figure 3 provides some evidence that fans aren’t entirely irrational. The correlation between scoring margin and game satisfaction is quite high. We can explain 78% of variation in game satisfaction with just the margin of victory (or loss). In my regular season wrap up column I will use my somewhat more complete model to simulate game and season satisfaction scores for each of the other Big Ten teams – I have already done several of them and the variations are very interesting.

Figure 3 Scoring Margin and Game Satisfaction

 

The Road Ahead

Well, we’ve reached the end of the line. It’s the last chance for Harbaugh and the guys to pull our season satisfaction numbers out of the toilet. A win sends Michigan fandom into bowl season with confidence and boundless optimism about next year. A loss, especially a crushing loss, well, the less said about that the better.

Go Blue.

Figure 4 Season Trends

 

 

Michigan vs. OSU Advanced Stats Matchup Analysis

Introduction

As usual, this matchup analysis draws upon the Advanced Stats Profiles published weekly by Bill Connelly on Football Study Hall. The profiles feature Connelly’s well-known Five Factors, and also include the more detailed groups of S&P+ metrics that break down elements of the game such as Rushing and Passing, as well as the down-and-distance scenarios known as Standard Downs and Passing Downs. This new interpretation is an updated take on what you may recall from last season. It assesses the complete set of 26 advanced stats metrics using an approach that displays the matchups graphically, in a way that more clearly distinguishes and gauges the significance of any net advantages. For more details regarding the definition of and concepts behind each of the metrics, the Advanced Stats Glossary is a handy reference to bookmark.

Methodology

If you’re interested in the approach to analyzing Bill Connelly’s base metrics, the formulation for deriving the matchup metrics or the data visualization concept for the charts, you can read more in the Michigan at Indiana diary. Nonetheless, nothing here is etched in stone, and certainly suggestions for improving any of the aspects of the methodology are welcome and appreciated!

So with that, on with the matchup analysis.

Executive Summary

Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Yelp!

The Five Factors Matchups

Here you have the matchups for the core Five Factors metrics. As of the beginning of this week, the S&P+ margin stands at 10.3 points in favor of the Buckeyes. Of the first four, which are the ones that contribute to the margin prediction, the Buckeyes have an edge in three - including the factor that is weighted most heavily: Efficiency. The other metric (Field Position) is a statistical push. The Wolverines manage save face and avoids sweep by posting a sizeable advantage in Turnover Margin, which alas, is the one factor that is most influenced by luck. Of course, Michigan’s luck this season has been predominantly of the bad variety, so that sounds about right at this point.

Some notable characteristics in this grouping include:

• OSU has the #1 Offense in Efficiency going against UM’s #1 Defense in the same category, which makes the OSU Offense look about average.
• OSU is in the top 25 in all categories on offense and defense except offensive Explosiveness (#42) and Turnover Margin (#38).
• Other than defensive Efficiency, UM is in the top 25 in only offensive & defensive Field Position, and Turnover Margin.
• The UM Offense is rated lower than the OSU Defense in all metrics, with the most significant disparity being in Efficiency.
• The UM Defense rates close to even with OSU Offense in Efficiency and Field Position, but is well below the OSU Offense in Explosiveness and Finishing Drives.

Woof!

Rushing Matchups

In going up against Ohio State, Michigan barely manages to avoid a clean sweep by the Buckeyes in the Rushing metrics. While OSU exhibits considerable advantages is most categories including the overall metric, UM’s only net advantage comes in metric that is arguably the least significant of the set: Power Success.

Notable characteristics in this group include:

• OSU is #2 in both the offensive and defensive overall Rushing S&P+ metrics, while UM is #13 and #11, yielding a significant advantage for OSU in Rushing S&P+.
• OSU also registers as elite in both offensive and defensive Rushing Success and Opportunity Rates, as well as defensive Adj. Line Yards and offensive Stuff Rate.
• OSU is top 12 in all else except in the offensive and defensive Explosiveness metrics (#41 and #22, respectively), which are derivative of the Efficiency.
• Explosiveness is the only metric in which the UM offense is rated above the OSU defense. Alas, the UM defense falls apart in the Explosiveness metric.
• UM is elite only in defensive Power Success and Stuff Rate.

Woof.

Passing Matchups

Once again, Michigan barely manages to avoid a clean sweep by the Buckeyes, this time in the Passing metrics. While OSU exhibits considerable advantages is most categories including the overall metric, UM’s only net advantage, which is a marginal at best, is in Passing Success Rate.

The continued atrophy of the Michigan passing attack, as well as its pass protection, are manifest in these metrics. That’s not to say that the Buckeye passing attack is particularly robust. This will say it better: OSU QB J.T. Barrett still ranks a pretty solid #1 in the B1G with a 166.3 QBR, #1 in yards, #3 in YPA, #1 in TDs, and only 3 INT’s not thrown to Iowa. As for UM’s QB, “Ask Again Later.”

Notable characteristics from this group include:

• The OSU Offense is elite in the overall Passing S&P+ and Passing Success Rate. The Michigan Defense is elite in the same metrics, plus Adj. Sack Rate.
• The UM Offense is rated well below the OSU Defense in all four metrics. 

Woof.

Standard Down Matchups

It seems inevitable that the Wolverines can do little to resist a Buckeye clean sweep of the Standard Down matchups. None of the matchups are even very close. The notables are:

• The Buckeyes are top 25ish in all offensive and defensive metrics in this group, and are elite in five of the ten, including both the overall offensive and defensive SD S&P+ metrics.
• The UM Defense is competitive with the OSU Offense overall, as well as in Success Rate and SD LYPC. The UM Defense also has an edge in Sack Rate, but is deficient in Explosiveness.
• The UM Offense is rated well below the OSU Defense in all metrics in this group.

Woof.

Passing Down Matchups

Last, but certainly not least, are the Passing Down matchups, in which Michigan manages to capture only one of the four base metrics, yet manages to capture – by a vanishingly small margin - the overall PD+ metric! One thing to keep in mind is that a Passing Down metrics are not measures of passing efficacy per se. These metrics are situational, in that they reflect performance in down-and-distance situations that are usually, but not necessarily, approached using passing plays. Clearly, the PD LYPC metric implies a rushing play on a passing down – and this is where UM has often excelled in the past - whereas PD Sack Rate would imply a drop back of some sort (a passing play or play action).

Anyway, the biggest advantage in this group for either team is Michigan’s edge in PD Explosiveness. This would suggest that the Buckeyes are not a significant threat to go deep on passing downs (perhaps this Buckeye team’s only weakness), so these situations may be prime opportunities for Don Brown to press the OSU Offense to get them further behind the chains.

Some other notables are:

• The OSU Offense and UM Defense are both elite in the overall PD S&P+ metric, which brings the OSU Offense down to a shade below average.
• The UM Offense and OSU Defense are both top 25 in overall PD S&P+, which brings the UM Offense down to a shade below average.
• Both the OSU Offense & Defense are about average in PD Sack Rate, while the UM Offense is as bad as the UM Defense is good.

Yelp.

Conclusion

Oh, how I long for the days of seeing matchup charts that are predominantly and overwhelmingly maize-and-blue-colored. The only hope now is that UM pulls a real patsy for whatever mid-tier, late-December, cold-weather, empty-stadium [Your Corporate Trademark Here]-Bowl it gets placed into. Otherwise, the charts may not be much different until next season, I hope?

It would be good if scoring could be kept low, but given this offense, the defense will be fortunate to keep OSU at bay for a half. The intangibles like turnovers, hidden yards, penalties and weather will need to factor significantly in Michigan’s favor to tilt the balance enough to escape with a win. Michigan’s execution will need to be – if not dominating – at least mistake free, while inducing the Buckeyes to be the error-prone combatant.

As with Wisconsin, should Michigan attempt to pass, step one will be to minimize the Buckeye pass rush. In other fancy stats, the Buckeye Defense currently ranks #8 in Overall Havoc (UM is still #2), as well as #1 in DL Havoc. Therefore, failing step one, step two will be to duck before…

It seems like the best option will be more of the same emphasis on the blocky-catchy types and heavy sets – particularly multi-TE/H-backs.

Here’s hoping that:

• John O’Korn somehow develops enough pocket instincts to stand and deliver, yet also avoid getting hospitalized.
• Harbaugh has secreted away an entire set of unused and heretofore un-filmed packages featuring variations on waggles, play-actions and mis-directions.

Yet we all know, as the late, great Lou Reed once sang:

You can't depend on no miracle
you can't depend on the air
You can't depend on a wise man
you can't find 'em because they're not there

You can depend on cruelty
crudity of thought and sound
You can depend on the worst always happening
you need a busload of faith to get by, ha!

And so, that concludes this week’s Five Factors Matchup Analysis.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

INTRODUCTION

One of the ideas being tossed around in the wake of the disappointing loss to Wisconsin is that Michigan lacks mental toughness.  The idea states that, moreso than other teams, when the going gets rough Michigan folds under the pressure.

I wondered how one might quantify such a behavior and see if there is data to support or deny this idea.  The thing I decided to consider was this: How does a team perform in the second half of a game when it finds itself losing at halftime?

Now, you can argue that this does not really address mental toughness.  You could argue it's more about teams that start poorly, or about coaches' abilities to make halftime adjustments.  But I think it's a good way to at least start looking at this notion.

 

TEAMS

I decided to look at the time period that Jim Harbaugh has been Michigan's coach - the past two seasons plus all the games so far this season.  I looked at the four teams who have seriously contended for the B1G East title during that time - Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State.

 

DEFINITIONS

I have grouped a team's second-half performance in a game they were losing at halftime into four categories, from best to worst:

Rally: The losing team comes back and wins the game.

Failed Rally: The losing team ties or wins the second half, but it is not enough to win the game.

Steady Decline: The losing team continues to fall behind at more or less the same rate it did in the first half.

Collapse: The losing team has a worse performance in the second half than it did in the first half.

 

RESULTS

 

MICHIGAN
Year	Opponent	Halftime Score	Result	Category	Notes
2015	Utah	Losing 10-3	24-17 Loss	Failed Rally	Harbaugh's first game
	Minnesota	Losing 16-14	29-26 Win	Rally	4th quarter goal line stand
	Ohio State	Losing 14-10	42-13 Loss	Collapse	Rudock shoulder ow
2016	Indiana	Losing 7-3	20-10 Win	Rally	O'Korn's 2016 start
	Florida State	Losing 20-6	33-32 Loss	Failed Rally	Peppers injured pre-game, Butt later
2017	Florida	Losing 17-13	33-17 Win	Rally	SHARKBAIT OOH HA HA
	Purdue	Losing 10-7	28-10 Win	Rally	Speight injured, O'Korn in.
	Michigan State	Losing 14-3	14-10 Loss	Failed Rally	rained a bit
	Penn State	Losing 21-13	42-13 Loss	Collapse	wait wasn't this just a nightmare I had
Rally	4 out of 9	44.4%
Failed Rally	3 out of 9	33.3%
Steady Decline	0 out of 9	0%
Collapse	2 out of 9	22.2%

As you can see, 7 times out of 9 whan a Harbaugh team has found itself down at halftime, it comes out with an improved performance in the second half.  It's not always enough to get the win, but 78% of the time it's an improvement at least.  The Ohio State game where Rudock seperated his shoulder and this year's Penn State debacle are the only two exceptions to this list.  If you're looking for Wisconsin, remember it was tied at halftime, so the game is not considered using this methodology.  This might be an inherent flaw worth discussing.

 

 

Penn State
Year	Opponent	Halftime Score	Result	Category	Notes
2015	Ohio State	Losing 21-3	Loss 38-10	Steady Decline
	Northwestern	Losing 20-7	Loss 23-21	Failed Rally
	Michigan	Losing 14-10	Loss 28-16	Steady Decline
	Michigan State	Losing 20-10	Loss 55-16	Collapse
	Georgia	Losing 17-3	Loss 24-17	Failed Rally
2016	Pittsburgh	Losing 28-14	Loss 42-39	Failed Rally
	Michigan	Losing 28-0	Loss 49-10	Steady Decline	Sad Field Goal
	Minnesota	Losing 13-3	Win 29-26	Rally
	Ohio State	Losing 12-7	Win 24-21	Rally
	Michigan State	Losing 12-10	Win 45-12	Rally
	Wisconsin	Losing 28-14	Win 38-31	Rally	B1G Championship game
	USC	Losing 27-21	Loss 52-49	Failed Rally	Rose Bowl
2017	Iowa	Losing 7-5	Win 21-19	Rally
Rally	5 out of 13	38.5%
Failed Rally	4 out of 13	30.8%
Steady Decline	3 out of 13	23.1%
Collapse	1 out of 13	7.7%

Penn State's stats are very similar to Michigan's, with a somewhat higher number of samples.  Penn State has rallied 69% of the time, but like Michigan the rally comes up just short almost as often as it succeeds.  Penn State's history is notable in that they were terrible at rallying up to and including our 49-10 pasting of them last year.  They went on a tear immediately afterwards, successfully overcoming their next four halftime deficits including the B1G championship.  I think many of us are still struggling to see Penn State as a championship caliber team, instead of as a team we treated like a MAC opponent.

All right, everyone ready to feel crappy?  Let's dive in.

 

Ohio State
Year	Opponent	Halftime Score	Result	Category	Notes
2015	Virginia Tech	Losing 17-14	Win 42-24	Rally
	Indiana	Losing 10-6	Win 34-27	Rally
2016	Wisconsin	Losing 16-6	Win 30-23 OT	Rally
	Michigan	Losing 10-7	Win 30-27 (2OT)	Rally	FUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
	Clemson	Losing 17-0	Loss 31-0	Steady Decline	CFP semifinal
2017	Indiana	Losing 14-13	Win 49-21	Rally
	Penn State	Losing 28-17	Win 39-38	Rally
	Iowa	Losing 31-17	Loss 55-24	Collapse
Rally	6 out of 8	75%
Failed Rally	0 out of 8	0%
Steady Decline	1 out of 8	12.5%
Collapse	1 out of 8	12.5%

Ohio State's record here is more similar to Michigan's than you might have suspected.  They've been down at halftime only one fewer time in the past 2.9 seasons than we have.  Like us, this is a mixture of tough battles against good teams and inexplicable first-half farts against the dregs of the conference.  Like us, the Buckeyes are very likely to rally in the second half.  The one major difference is that Ohio State successfully closed out all six of its rallies.  "Coming up just short" is not something Ohio State has experienced lately when facing a halftime deficit.  If you're part of the "this coin always comes up tails" crowd, here's the data for you.

Also, that Iowa game, man. 

 

 

Michigan State
Year	Opponent	Halftime Score	Result	Category	Notes
2015	Michigan	Losing 10-7	Win 27-24	Rally	UUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK
	Iowa	Losing 6-3	Win 16-13	Rally
	Alabama	Losing 10-0	Loss 38-0	Collapse	CFP semifinal
2016	Wisconsin	Losing 13-6	Loss 30-6	Collapse
	Northwestern	Losing 19-17	Loss 54-40	Collapse
	Michigan	Losing 27-10	Loss 32-23	Failed Rally	Defeated with Dignity
	Illinois	Losing 7-6	Loss 31-27	Steady Decline
2017	Notre Dame	Losing 28-7	Loss 38-18	Failed Rally
	Ohio State	Losing 35-3	Loss 48-3	Steady Decline
Rally	2 out of 9	22.2%
Failed Rally	2 out of 9	22.2%
Steady Decline	2 out of 9	22.2%
Collapse	3 out of 9	33.3%

I've seen it written that Michigan State possesses a toughness and intensity that Michigan lacks.  Maybe... but it's not in the data here.  Michigan State is the first and only team on this list more likely to get worse in the second half of a game it was losing at halftime.  It is the only team that has collasped three times, starting with the hamblasting by Alabama in the playoff game.  It's also a bit beyond the scope of this study, but it's interesting to note that the Spartans were tied or leading at halftime during 5 of last season's 9 losses.  

 

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this data, Michigan does not appear to have a tendency to wilt in the face of adversity.  That only team studied that has that tendency is Michigan State.  Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State will all come out strong after a halftime deficiit 70-80% of the time.  The thing that sets Ohio State apart from everyone else is that once they start to rally, they always seem to finish the job.  For everyone else, it's a lot closer to a coin flip.

The stars and planets have aligned!  Time to take some time off, and beat the Buckeyes...

 

Edit:  This wasn't meant to be a diary.  What makes it even worse is that I'm not drunk.  Silver lining:  More time to bang?