THE KNOWLEDGE shall use the bye week next week to congratulate all the winners of THE CHALLENGE 2012.1 and this current edition 2012.2, and award them the status of Protege of the week. At that very time, THE KNOWLEDGE shall also talk about the state of the future and of the Big Ten
THE CHALLENGE 2012.2 is now open. Correctly predict the score of the Michigan-ND game to be the POTW
THE KNOWLEDGE shall now provide some comments and pointers to the game to aid in the predictions
Before the Alabama game, everyone knew Michigan would lose, and they were correct - although not regarding how lopsided the score would be (the combination of oversigning and referees playing for Alabama made it worse than people assumed). THE KNOWLEDGE did not debut THE CHALLENGE that week because the pointers would have demoralized the fans
This week, everyone predicts a loss to ND as well
It may be worth remembering that THE KNOWLEDGE has revealed a 2 loss season for Michigan. THE KNOWLEDGE has not yet mentioned whether that second loss will be in the Big Ten regular season, or in the postseason, or out of conference
Just that there is another loss this season
That loss will not happen this week
Pointers to the game:
- Michigan will win
- Notre Dame will lose
- Michigan's defense will yield many yards to the ND run game
- Michigan's passing offense will bamboozle ND
I wrote this a few seasons back. Its still good for a chuckle. I cut out 5 to avoid feeding the monkey. What could the new 5 be?
10. We are Notre Dame.... No I will not link it.
9.Notre Dame Stadium
|A highlight from last weeks USF vs ND game|
I remember a short time ago when the Big House was outdated but now is a thing of beauty. At least the Big House had some sort of stats and video for replays before all the updates. Going to a game at Notre Dame Stadium is like going back in time to 1955 in Docs DeLorean. I think all the fans drive there wind up old model Ts to the Stadium every Saturday to tail gate. Don't even get me going on the turf and the mess that it is. Seems like every game I watch the turf is a giant mess. Grass flying everywhere. The score board is a thing of 1975 with giant bulbs for score. No replays or stats. I will give it this. It does have cool clip art(like hands clapping) that displays a long the bottom. That is pretty 1992. So if you wanna go back in time then check a game out at Notre Dame Stadium... Bring your top hat.
8.Notre Dame Weather
I swear to god when I click over to NBC to watch ND the weather is always awful. Its like South Bend has rain monsoons every Saturday. If Michigan has a secondary hating god then Nortre Dame has a shitty weather god. I think they give a rain poncho with every season ticket purchase.
7.The Irish Ginger Dancing Mascot guy... thing.
Every year I have to look at some new pimpled face kid jumping around on the side line. I would love to see this try out. Like a line of 19 year old gingers all lined up doing their best "who stole my lucky charms?" impression. It may get higher ratings then American Idol.
6.The Fan Base(besides the MGO user Irish)
Hey I like tough coaches as much as the other but I would be embarrassed if I were a fan and the University. The dude is straight up belittling the player. How is this a teaching moment? I got a hold of a mouth reader and this what got out the clip.
KELLY: ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?
KELLY: YOU FUCKING ASSHOLE! WHEN I GET YOU IN PRACTICE I WILL CUT OFF YOUR HEAD!
KELLY: I WILL PUNCH YOU RIGHT IN THE FACE! I DON'T CARE! YOU ARE DEAD TO ME! I WILL KICK YOUR DOG ON SUNDAY! DO YOU UNDERSTAND!? YOUR MOM!
It was something like that. I mean come on. Like I said I know football is all about screaming but this is drunkin sailor yelling. I never liked you at GVSU and I don't like you now. I do think he can make it at ND but he has to be careful. The same kinds that hated on RR at Michigan will be doing the same at ND in no time if they haven't already. We saw what negativity can do to a program. It isn't pretty.
this week's miniprogram. comments, corrections, etc. are always welcome.
[Ed-S: Bumped to Diary. Plus this man!]
So, Brian quit charting UMass before we even got to the 4th quarter, where one big time recruit Justice Hayes got the first carries of his Michigan career. I don't think enough attention has been paid to those carries, be they with backups in the game or not. A guy's first carries in Michigan Stadium deserve a little review, so I thought I'd try to UFR some of his plays
I don't have a full game video, only highlights, so I don't have all the information, but I can do a simple review. Unfortunately, the highlights only have two plays with him in it. If others have better insight, please share it. I'm very much an amature.
Set: Angle too tight, but it looks like a Shotgun Split, with Bellomy, Gyarmati and Hayes all pretty much on the same line, 3 Wide.
Play: Zone Read? Not sure if this is actual read or not, but while the others appear to be run blocking, Gunderson looks like he went to a pass block, so maybe?
Result: 9 yards
Players: Mateus - Burzynski - Miller - Glasgow - Gunderson
Gyarmati - Bellomy - Hayes
Glasgow pulls at the snap, taking off playside. Gunderson's man takes a wide circle around him, and Gunderson seems momentarily confused about who to block, first looking towards center, then back outside. He eventually gets in the way of the SDE who wasn't going to get to the mesh point in time anyway. Miller(+1) gets into his man and shoves him off the line, while Mateus (+1) and Burzynski(+1) double the other DT and take him well out of the play. Glasgow has pulled quickly (+1), while he, Gyarmati, Hayes AND Bellomy all take off playside.
The WDE crashes, but then squares up to take a block from Glasgow, who angles past him. He then turns to deal with a block from Gyarmati, who is headed behind him. Finally, he looks towards the Bellomy-Hayes mesh, his indecision making it impossible for him to get either. he chooses the wrong guy anyway. (-1, that guy. If you're gonna go with a guy, get there fast. If you're gonna hesitate, at least pick the right guy).
Bellomy sells it on the hand off, and Hayes follows Gyarmati behind the WDE while Bellomy follows Glasgow inside. I love how hard Hayes sells this, and the whole play side of the field follows him out. Beautiful fake. I'll +1 him on it.
Gyarmati gets out on the LB (I think. Can't see it, but he's got a block on someone), Miller loses his man but delayed him juuuust long enough, and Mateus & Bryant have crushed their donkey so hard that 5 yards upfield, Glasgow is still looking for someone to block. Bellomy hits a big time hole (+1). Glasgow finally finds a WLB to block, and the SLB and Safety combine to bring down Bellomy at the one.
- Seems like everybody did their jobs here, though I'd like to see Gunderson be more decisive. Not sure if it was the combo block that delayed the LB's, having to go out around it, or an RPS with them dropping to pass coverage. Curse you, highlight angles!
Set: I-form, 2 TE Set.
Result: 1 Yard, TD
Players: Same as before, with Kwiatkowski and Paskorz in at TE.
Solid blocking all along the line. Kwiatkowski, Burzynski and Glasgow get no push. Burzynski, Glasgow, Mateus/Paskorz and Kwiatkowski get linemen while Miller, Gunderson and Gyarmati get LB's. Miller(+1) and Gunderson(+1) have both gotten fantastic blocks, which is a shame, because Burzynski(-1) and Glasgow(-1) allow their men to roll together and completely fill what should be a massive middle hole while a safety fills the left side hole. This play was going right, so it's not a big deal, but this is goal line. EVERYBODY should go backwards into the endzone.
Gyarmati (+2) gets out on his LB and brings a safety along with him(!) and a sizeable hole opens right that Hayes hits with authority. The safety and guard both get a hand on Hayes, but not till after he's crossed the plane. Touchdown!
Anything to add?
The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is: Notre Dame 37 Michigan 14 with a 93% Probable Win Expectation for ND (yikes!). Notre Dame is ranked #6 in the FEI.
Fremeau Efficiency Index: The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams. (This is why M was ranked relatively high after that loss to Alabama and actually fell 13 places after the blowout of UMass.)
National Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.
FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan ( Football Outsiders FEI ). FEI is predicting a 6-6 season for the Wolverines (FBS Mean Wins = 5.8). Like most predictive tools, the FEI is less reliable at the beginning of the year because there is so little data. Last year after 3 games (WMU, ND, EMU), FEI had M ranked #19 and was predicting a 9 win season.
Points Per Possession: The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense. The charts both indicate significant improvement in each subsequent game. Of course, this may be due in great measure to the fact that the opponent has been weaker in each subsequent game.
Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).
Preseason Prediction: Michigan will end the year with a +8 Turnover Margin (TOM) or better (2011 was +7). The prediction for TOM for M for this year is based on the prediction that M will be a very good team again this year and is not based on the actual TOM of last year. (Very good teams will have a TOM of +5 or better.)
What The Heck Is Going On Out There?: The opponents have fumbled the ball 7 times (ranked #24) but Michigan has recovered just 2 for a paltry 29% recovery rate (ranked #92). This is far below the average 50% recovery rate and may appear to be just bad luck. But, a further look reveals that M has just forced 1 fumble (ranked #105) which they did recover. Of the 6 unforced fumbles, 3 occurred on punts in the UMass game (one of which was recovered by M), and three occurred in the backfield (all recovered by the player that fumbled the ball). Forced fumbles tend to occur with more M players around the ball and are more likely to be recovered. M's defense has zero interceptions (ranked #100) and the offense has thrown 5 picks (ranked #107). The result is a TOM of –3 (ranked #88).
Synopsis for Turnovers: Woooo! Taylor Lewan scored a touchdown recovering Denard's fumble in the end zone and Paul Gyarmati recovered a UMass fumbled punt. Other than that, I got pretty much nothin' here. M ended the game with a TOM of – 0 – . Denard threw another one – his interception ratio was 4% in this game and is now 5.2% overall (interception ratios of around 3% are "average" in FBS). (Note, this is just the interceptions thrown by DRob and excludes the one interception thrown by Bellomy.) I definitely expected Denard to improve this year and M to have a positive TOM for this game. Oh, well.
Synopsis for Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Just step away from the chart – nothing to see here. Each team had one TO but the EP gained by UMass was much larger because UMass returned the Denard interception for a TD.
(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)
National Rankings: Since M has a negative TOM overall, a game with a zero TOM improves the national rankings. All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
The Gory Details
Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the line of scrimmage for the offense. Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained. Each turnover may result in an immediate lost opportunity for the team committing the TO and a potential gain in field position by the opponent. Both of these components can vary dramatically based upon the down when the TO occurred, the yards the TO is returned, and whether the TO was a fumble or an interception.
Here are the details for the game.
The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO may directly result in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.
The expected point calculations are based on data from Brian Fremeau at BCFToys (he also posts at Football Outsiders). Fremeau's data reflects all offensive possessions played in 2007-2010 FBS vs. FBS games. I "smoothed" the actual data.
Here is a summary of the smoothed expected points.