Diaries

SOME INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT BIG TEN SCORING OFFENSES: 2000-PRESENT

I find the things I am uncovering to be interesting (hopefully, you do as well), I am extending this series another week, and this time, we are going to poke around at some of the historic stats on scoring offense in the Big Ten. I even included Nebraska this time.

Since 2000, the conference’s football teams have scored 49,281 points over a stretch of 692,579 yards of total offense, or roughly the distance from Detroit to Springfield, Illinois. The conference has also amassed 5657 PATs to go with 6,168 touchdowns, as well as 2,076 field goals and 4,776 total yards per year.  Actually, here’s a small chart with the four most common scoring types and their relative occurrence:

In the 1,792 games that all this encompasses, the Big Ten has managed to maintain an average rate of 27.5 points per game and 386.5 yards per game, which is not the West Virginia-Baylor game of recent note but is also not bad. It still means an average ranking nationally in the mid-50s, which essentially means there have been about as many terrible offenses in this stretch as there have been good ones, but slightly fewer bad ones. Yes, very technical statement there.

It doesn’t look like it on the field sometimes, but take thirteen years of data and do a table of “percent of total” for a few things and you get this:

Nebraska is, of course, the anomaly here. Illinois and Indiana show their protracted stretches of relative ineptitude even here, as the difference between Wisconsin and Illinois, for example, means a veritable sh*t ton on scoring over 13 years even if the percentage is small. For the most part, things are more even than I would have thought, but again, fractions of a percent here hide off seasons.

Here are the totals / averages by team from 2000 to the present:

It may or may not be the variation you would expect. I sorted the table by average points per game and was not entirely shocked by the order of the teams myself. All things considered, maintaining an average ranking of 42, in our case, which would be the upper reaches of the second quartile of teams, is not that bad at all when compared to the grand mean of 56.

So, similar to the other two diaries that I did recently, I asked myself the question – which of these nearly 150 teams in this spreadsheet were very good at scoring, in relative terms? Using a similar method, I decided to create from the excessively large table a small table of teams which were above average in at least four of the following: Total yards, TDs, FGs, PATs, and Points.

You get 63 teams that compare as follows:

Here, from a historic average of 27.5 points per game, you jump to 31.8 points per game for the teams that fit the criteria for this table. I then did the same thing with the remaining teams, and you see the following from the remaining 23 teams:

These teams were scoring at an average rate of 35.2 points per game, or slightly more than 1 TD per game more than the Big Ten grand mean in this time period.

Not shockingly, being able to actually get the ball across the plane or through the uprights on a consistent basis makes a considerable difference. The Big Ten’s cumulative winning percentage since 2000 has been 0.564, but when I did the first elimination, that jumped to 0.686, and then on the second one, it leapt to 0.753. Essentially, it is the difference, in scoring terms, between 7 and 9 wins in a season based on historic numbers.

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Once again, this was an exercise conducted under an admittedly arbitrary set of assumptions, but it is interesting to see  the improvements that mere points will bring in numerical terms and give an added dimension – hopefully – to what occurs on the field and how much it means to, well, score.

A fifth and final look at the remaining schedules:

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

#3: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-3

#4: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-4

Similar Read:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/rooting-interests-btt-seeding

Take a look at joeyb's write-up in the board section about rooting interests- he does a good job at describing potential outcomes.  Seeding will likely be a hot mess...

Current Standings:

Who has the hardest schedule?:

In the past I have made scoring systems to rank upcoming schedule etc.- think with two games left that is not necessary.  OSU has the toughest in my mind because @Indiana.  Indiana has a tough schedule as well- but has co-champ locked down.  Wisconsin has two road games, but @MSU and @PSU is easier that Indiana at home and @Purdue in my mind- but I think they will likely lose @MSU.  MSU has the easiest schedule left in my mind- two home games and NW- but they are on a skid...

Thoughts on remaining teams:

Indiana: Already guaranteed at least a split.  They do have two tough games- home against Ohio State and away in Crisler.  Everyone else is rooting for them to lose both- because if not- we have an undisputed champ. OSU will be a tough game, but I don’t think it is probable Indiana loses its last home game.  I think it is still 50-50 against us.  I think they are the better team- but we are very solid at home- and played them well in Indiana.  They have will be playing to wrap up a 1 seed regardless of Big Ten Tournament as well.

Michigan: Well last week was weird… PSU loss really sucks no way around it.  Have to respect PSU playing hard all year- and glad that didn’t go undefeated- but really not glad what it means for a title chance and that the win was against us.  50-50 against Indiana, and at Purdue is looking quite winnable- but with our road struggles it gives me pause.

Michigan State: Let’s see if MSU’s slide continues. Northwestern has fallen apart- and at home that should be an easy W.  I personally hope they beat Wisconsin because I don’t want Wisconsin having a shot a shared title- although I think Indiana has that taken care of (let’s hope I’m wrong).

Ohio State: Last week they looked very out of it- only to have Michigan blow a gimme, MSU go on a big slide, and Indiana give them some semblance of hope.  At Indiana is huge for everybody- and rooting for OSU will be cringe worthy- but my god that would be huge.  If we beat Purdue and OSU pulls the upset Sunday could be one hell of a night.

Wisconsin: At MSU is a tough one and I covered that above.  Let’s hope PSU can get win number 2 (or 3?) as well.  Wish we had Wisconsin at home- don’t think they would keep us too close at home.  If we play them in Big Ten Tournament I would not be too worried… but seriously f*** Wisconsin.

Championship Odds:

Indiana has wrapped up a split- and is clearly in great shape for it to be a solo champion.  I say only 10% chance they lose to OSU and us with having so much to play for, being so consistent, and having a home game.  And for non-Indiana teams 2 losses is all anyone cares about for the boys from Bloomington.

I say MSU has the best odd at staying with 5-losses.  Wisconsin at home will be tough, but NW should not be.

We have the next best bet because I think we will take care of business at Purdue- but that could be too optomistic given our road struggles of late.

Wisconsin has at PSU, so if they can beat MSU in EL they have a decent shot at stay with 5 L's.

OSU plays at Indiana and will paly Illinois at home- with Illinois wanting to be at 500 and make the tournament- so they have the longest odds. 

Let's hope OSU wins (I know... gross) so Sunday will be interesting!  And let's hope we take care of business on the road at Purdue!

Sometimes it seems like the Big Ten is just so crazy analyzing it is pointless- and I hope this is also one of those times- because that would mean the year ended in crazy fashion- and that is needed for a split-championship!

It's amazing how easily we take things for granted. We become acclimated and everything turns into background noise, only to gain our attention when things shift unexpectedly. It's how I felt when I graduated and moved out of Ann Arbor, and it's how I've felt about this year's hockey team.

I was introduced to Michigan hockey in 2006. Having grown up in a house with a die-hard Michigan State alum for a mother and a father who cared more about what went on in the philosophy and astronomy world than the sports world I had some catching up to do. I remeber reading the Daily's hockey season preview and thinking that becoming a fan of Michigan hockey was just a natural extention of my love of the Red Wings. I folded up that newspaper insert and stuck it in my backpack so that I could re-read it whenever I wanted. My conversion to a Michigan hockey fan had begun.

I never made it to a game that season. Instead, I had to rely on keeping up with the team through Daily articles and watching the few games that I could find on TV. Jack Johnson became something of a folk hero to me, a player that I still regret not seeing play while he was wearing the winged helmet. I vowed to myself that I would not make the same mistake twice.

Fall 2007 rolls around and mini-season ticket packages go on sale. A few friends, my girlfriend (who's now my wife) and I decide to get a mini season ticket package. I'll never forget going to my first game at Yost. If there's one arena in the world that can't possibly be done justice by TV this is it. I remember walking in through the cramped corridors and past the ornate woodwork. Then you walk into the stands and it's a fluorescent blast of white exacerbated by a sheet of ice. The corridors scream history while the inside of the rink just screams. If Michigan hockey is powered by a fuse box it only has one switch and that switch, which is permanently flipped, has "ON" printed above it on label tape. 

I went to a CCHA playoff game that season and was struck by how the regular season atmosphere is essentially the same as the playoff atmosphere. There's no way for it to get louder and rowdier than it already is, especially when you're in the student section. At the time that seemed hard to believe. Again, I wasn't used to Michigan hockey just yet. Having been a Red Wings fan for so long you get acclimated to regular season games with half empty lower bowls that switch to rabid sell outs when the second or third round of the playoffs roll around.

The energy of Yost spoiled me, and I didn't realize that until this season. When things are about to be taken away from you, that's when you realize just how good you had it. I didn't think there would be a CCHA playoff game at Yost this year. Not after watching a team that had block M's on the front of their jersey but looked oh so unfamiliar otherwise. Now I realize just how amazing the atmosphere at Yost is. Now I realize just how important the CCHA playoffs are. These aren't throwaway games anymore, this is our ticket to the tournament. And, finally, I'm watching a Michigan team that I recognize. This is a team that somehow, someway dug deep and emerged from the shell of...well, whatever that was that took the ice from October through February. Maybe they realized what I realized; it's easy to take things for granted until you're about to lose them.

There aren't many goals to breakdown here, but that's a good thing. A team that was allowing almost four goals per game gave up two this weekend. Two! And I can't even make a joke about only giving up two and it not even being non-exhibition play because they gave up more than that to like Windsor, man. Let's analyze:

(Posted on behalf of MGoUser Blue Ribbon, who lacked the points but not the effort.)

These are some thoughts I had after the PSU game, prompted partly by MBB’s recent stretch of blah and partly by MGoUser Erik_in_Dayton’s excellent diary about the pitfalls of being a Kansas-style fan.  First off, I have to admit I didn’t actually watch the game.  I recorded it and then went to the gym, and stupidly left my TV on BTN when I left.  When I got home I realized my mistake, but figured it was late enough that the game would have ended.  I was right about that; I turned on the tube and saw the aftermath of a court-rushing in Happy Valley.  So, I checked the score online, saw the ugly truth, and decided not only to spare myself the pain, but to delete the recording, because teams beating Michigan are not welcome on my DVR.  

It occurred to me that some people might say that my decision to forgo the pain of watching PSU earn their first conference win makes me less of a Michigan fan.  My initial reaction to that hypothetical suggestion was vociferous disagreement, but after further consideration, I thought about the word from which ‘fan’ is abbreviated, and I realized that maybe being less fanatical about something so far beyond my control as MBB is not necessarily a bad thing.  So, if you’re one of those people who consider me less of a fan, or a fair-weather fan, or however you’d articulate it, then okay.  I guess that’s easy for me, a lifelong Walmart Wolverine, to say, and for everyone who actually has a personal connection to UM, I hope the pain isn’t too unbearable and fades quickly.  

The main point I got from Erik_in_Dayton’s diary was that expecting an easy win against anyone, no matter how lowly and downtrodden they may be, leads to satisfaction at best and anguish at worst, which seems to me a pretty badly skewed spectrum.  On paper, PSU didn’t have a chance.  But the game is played on hardwood, and the student-athletes of Penn State, despite a clear and significant talent disadvantage, played fearlessly and with complete confidence in their ability to win, even when it looked like the game was slipping away (at least I assume they did; I can’t imagine how else they overcame the talent gap).  From the perspective of UM students, alumni, and fans, the game was a disaster of epic proportions, but the other side has a different outlook (Captain Obvious is obvious).  For PSU players and supporters, Wednesday’s game was a triumph over adversity, a monumental breakthrough in a season of frustration, and a moment of well-deserved unadulterated joy*.  I don’t want to be the kind of fan who can’t appreciate that side of reality.  Leave that shit to Sparty, my couch remains at room temperature.  

Furthermore, if Michigan played the way they’ve been playing in the recent games I have actually watched (please correct me if I’m wrong here), they played as if having more talented players and building a 15-point 2nd-half lead entitled them to win.  I base the previous statement on the impression I’ve gotten from watching the last couple weeks’ worth of games, which is of players exuding the attitude, “We’re here, we’re obviously super-talented, what more could anyone expect from us?”  Sometimes the first half has served as a wake-up call, sometimes not.  And sdunfortunately for the team and their supporters Wednesday night, they found out the hard way that the only thing that entitles a victory is outscoring your opponent through 40 minutes of basketball.  

Despite Erik_in_Dayton’s wise warning, I also learned about the pitfalls associated with a sense of entitlement the hard way, because apparently it affects fans just as much as players, if not more so.  After checking the score and deciding not to watch PSU’s breakthrough victory (does that phrasing offend?  Should it offend anyone with a sense of perspective?), I checked the box score, and the first thing that jumped out at me was how many FTs Penn State attempted.  27 FTAs?!?  Refs must be related to Paterno!!!  Then I decided to stop being absurd.  Because seriously, is Michigan entitled to give their opponents no more than 15 FTA per game because That’s How They Play Defense, and if they give up more it must be referee bias?  Again, absurd. I occasionally (okay, often) forget this as an unabashed maize’n’blue fanboy, but the refs’ job is to call the game as it happens, not to ensure Michigan’s opp. FTA remains within the bounds of statistical normalcy.  Especially since, in this case, every postgame account I’ve seen indicates PSU legitimately earned all those trips to the line.  So instead of blaming an easy scapegoat when things don’t go well, I’d rather thank the officials for calling the game as fairly as they humanly could (unless anyone has evidence that they did otherwise), and give credit to the opponent for a game well played.

Despite the recent struggles, In Beilein I Trust.  And I hope his postgame message included something along the following lines: Talent means nothing without effort.  Effort means nothing without execution.  Execution means nothing without teamwork.  All of these things together still do not guarantee victory, and even victory means nothing without respect: for yourselves, for your teammates, for your opponents, and for the game.  

There’s still plenty of time for learning and growth before March Madness is upon us.  Even if we only get to the Sweet 16, or (blasphemy alert) lose in an early round, let’s not lose sight of the fact that this has been the best regular season of MBB that anyone born after 1985 can legitimately claim to remember.  They really are just kids; praise them when they do well, and encourage them when they fall short of our greedy expectations.

*I think this is especially true given what PSU and their fan base has been through recently.  Yeah, in large part they brought that on themselves, but on the other hand, I don’t think ‘they’ includes the kids who I have to believe were thrilled to receive basketball scholarships from PSU, and have worked just as hard as any other basketball scholarship recipients in the B1G.

“SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY RATED PASSING OFFENSES IN THE BIG TEN: 2000-PRESENT”

In a companion diary to my last entry, I took a similar dive into the passing statistics of the Big Ten since 2000 to see what some of the characteristics of the highly rated passing offenses were. In an attempt to be a little more thoughtful as well, I also looked at the passing efficiency data, particularly since TD and INT percentages are part of the calculation of efficiency ratings. I like to believe that these two percentages really matter more than the average total yards in that they provide insight into what a team does with the yards they managed to accumulate. This is also the reason that the selection process for this exercise varies a little from the method employed when looking at rushing offenses.

Some high-level trivia:

• Since 2000, a Big Ten quarterback has thrown the ball to someone else 53,905 times, and on 31,128 of those occasions, someone caught it. That’s good for a 57.7% completion percentage and 381,792 total yards.
• When the ball was caught, teams averaged 12.27 yards per completion. When it was not, it was thrown an average of 7.08 yards.
• For all that passing, 2,640 touchdowns were produced, or an average of 1.5 passing TDs per game. There were also 1,646 interceptions thrown, or 0.93 INTs per game.
• The touchdown percentage of the Big Ten in that space was 4.06%. The interception percentage was 3.09%. Michigan fell slightly above the average in both cases, incidentally.
• The cumulative passer efficiency rating of the Big Ten in this timeframe is 127.59
• The average yards per game passing in this time turns out to be 216.69 yards
• The cumulative winning percentage of the conference? 0.562

So, once again, I laid all this out in an egregiously large spreadsheet and then put it aside to do some actual work at work. I came back to this later and decided to pay particular attention to four factors which are considered in the efficiency statistics. In this case, I thought it would be interesting to use the following – average yards per game, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and completion percentage.

As it turns out, there were only 27 passing attacks in the group which were above average in all four areas, but here is what those teams were typically capable of doing:

• Average completion percentage: 61.02%
• Average interception percentage: 2.22%
• Average touchdown percentage: 6.30%
• Average yards per game: 248.16
• Average passer rating: 142.65
• Average yards per attempt: 7.68
• Average yards per completion: 12.59

These are noticably better than the grand means in each category. Another interesting improvement is in total years for the season. For the entire sample, it was 2,669 yards, but for this statistically elite group, it was 3,102 yards. Further, the cumulative winning percentage of this group is 0.653, so having an efficient passing game gets perhaps one more win each year in the Big Ten.

I eased the restrictions a little for the next sort just to see if I could squeeze out a list of the best of the best, if you will. For the next step, I took teams from the smaller sample that were above average in at least two of the four statistics and managed to get a group of 13 teams. Their means are:

• Average completion percentage: 62.40%
• Average interception percentage: 1.97%
• Average touchdown percentage: 6.65%
• Average yards per game: 262.17
• Average passer rating: 148.89
• Average yards per attempt: 8.00
• Average yards per completion: 12.82

Those teams that made the final cut under these assumptions are:

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Like the rushing version of this from earlier in the week, the point of this was to simply run through a short exercise on finding a potential way to discover from a large set of data which teams stood out among their peers in the conference in a specific set of statistics. I chose to go with statistics that I thought pointed towards an efficient passing attack, not necessarily the most prolific, although the two do in fact overlap somewhat. There are probably better ways to think through this, but I was working with easily available data.

It is also rather intriguing that, at least under my own assumptions in doing these two diaries, having an efficient passing attack and an effective rushing game produce the same typical bump in winning percentage, at least when looked at separately like this.

RANDOM ENTERTAINMENT:

Because I was missing "Animalympics" earlier...

THE LIGHTS HAVE GONE OUT

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

If it hurts, it's only because I want you to start hating Bump more.

But go ahead, neg away.  Especially if it makes you feel better.

Apologies for the not-so-ambitious execution here.  For those of you following along in the depths of Twittervania, we had a little emergency around here yesterday.  Everything's cool (thanks for the concern and well wishes), but it's a miracle I put anything up.  Promise more art-like stuff next week.

Friday Fun will take a look at recruiting tomorrow... don't miss it.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Wednesday here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

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