Diaries

Short and sweet...here's another quick one that expresses my hope for the team between now and Sunday at 4pm.  Enjoy!

Desktop (16:9)

- JonValk

Last month on signing day I posted on the top classes looking at how they stacked up down the line, top to bottom. Several people requested a picture of Michigan’s classes and how each of the classes stacked up.

Lloyd Carr

Carr’s classes definitely held their own throughout his final six years at the helm. From 2003-2006 Michigan’s classes were virtually identical through the top 12. 2004 was probably the lightest at the top but showed a tremendous level of depth through the top 20. 2003 was the opposite. Top of the line talent through the top 12 or so and then a fast drop off. 2005 is the most representative class of this range, with 2006 looking very similar to 2003.

Based on the narrative of Carr’s waning interest in recruiting at the end of his career, it looks better than I expected but there is solid evidence that a drop off was real. 2006 was solid at the top but had a poorly rated back half. In 2007 the dropoff occurred much sooner. Ryan Mallett and Donovan Warren were worthy headliners but from there the class was significantly lower rated than the previous Carr classes.

Rich Rodriguez

Of all the debatable aspects of the Rich Rodriguez era, his effectiveness as a recruiter was one of the most clear cut cases against him. 2008 and 2009 were very similar classes, but both were significantly below the Carr standard. Of the top 20 rated Michigan recruits from 2002-2010, only two RichRod recruits made the list. Darryl Stonum in 2008 and Will Campbell in 2009 came in at #18 and #19, respectively.

By the time the 2010 class signed, the pressure on the program was immense and the uncertainty produced a class significantly below anything in the internet era.

Brady Hoke

For all the ugliness of the 2010 class, the transition class was even worse. Justice Hayes was the most highly regarded in that class, and he didn’t even crack the top 50 of the prior 9 years. The transition class quickly became ancient history. Six players from 2012 would have been the highest rated for the 2011 class. From there things only got better. Last month Brady Hoke signed the highest rated player to the program since Ryan Mallett in 2007 and the class was across the board a step up from the already outstanding 2012 class.

The latest class is still in its infancy Michigan has received commitments from three players who are currently rated at levels consistent with the back half of the Top 10 of last year’s class.

Head to Head

Like any good recruiting battle, you have to be able to win the head to head matchups to take home the top spot.

Average recruit by Nth position

Hoke’s three year average is strikingly similar to Rodriguez’s low standard. However, when you remove the transition year things jump up considerably. Carr still holds the edge at the top range. Whether that is a reflection of Hoke versus Carr or just the emergence of the SEC that Carr came before, the top end is owned by Carr. The theme that seems to come through with Hoke’s classes so far, is their depth. Michigan’s 2013 class was one of the deepest in the country. When compared with very strong classes from Lloyd Carr, there is a clear separation from Hoke’s last two classes at from the tenth spot forward.

SUPER ATHLETE

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Apologies to everyone expecting a Purdue victory strip.  Started it last night when the game was still in doubt.  As for where the idea came from, well, I guess it was a parental moment.

Personally I was more into the comics back in the day.  Good times.

Friday Fun will address what's at stake this weekend.  No pressure, boys.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every week here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

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SOME INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT BIG TEN SCORING OFFENSES: 2000-PRESENT

I find the things I am uncovering to be interesting (hopefully, you do as well), I am extending this series another week, and this time, we are going to poke around at some of the historic stats on scoring offense in the Big Ten. I even included Nebraska this time.

Since 2000, the conference’s football teams have scored 49,281 points over a stretch of 692,579 yards of total offense, or roughly the distance from Detroit to Springfield, Illinois. The conference has also amassed 5657 PATs to go with 6,168 touchdowns, as well as 2,076 field goals and 4,776 total yards per year.  Actually, here’s a small chart with the four most common scoring types and their relative occurrence:

In the 1,792 games that all this encompasses, the Big Ten has managed to maintain an average rate of 27.5 points per game and 386.5 yards per game, which is not the West Virginia-Baylor game of recent note but is also not bad. It still means an average ranking nationally in the mid-50s, which essentially means there have been about as many terrible offenses in this stretch as there have been good ones, but slightly fewer bad ones. Yes, very technical statement there.

It doesn’t look like it on the field sometimes, but take thirteen years of data and do a table of “percent of total” for a few things and you get this:

Nebraska is, of course, the anomaly here. Illinois and Indiana show their protracted stretches of relative ineptitude even here, as the difference between Wisconsin and Illinois, for example, means a veritable sh*t ton on scoring over 13 years even if the percentage is small. For the most part, things are more even than I would have thought, but again, fractions of a percent here hide off seasons.

Here are the totals / averages by team from 2000 to the present:

It may or may not be the variation you would expect. I sorted the table by average points per game and was not entirely shocked by the order of the teams myself. All things considered, maintaining an average ranking of 42, in our case, which would be the upper reaches of the second quartile of teams, is not that bad at all when compared to the grand mean of 56.

So, similar to the other two diaries that I did recently, I asked myself the question – which of these nearly 150 teams in this spreadsheet were very good at scoring, in relative terms? Using a similar method, I decided to create from the excessively large table a small table of teams which were above average in at least four of the following: Total yards, TDs, FGs, PATs, and Points.

You get 63 teams that compare as follows:

Here, from a historic average of 27.5 points per game, you jump to 31.8 points per game for the teams that fit the criteria for this table. I then did the same thing with the remaining teams, and you see the following from the remaining 23 teams:

These teams were scoring at an average rate of 35.2 points per game, or slightly more than 1 TD per game more than the Big Ten grand mean in this time period.

Not shockingly, being able to actually get the ball across the plane or through the uprights on a consistent basis makes a considerable difference. The Big Ten’s cumulative winning percentage since 2000 has been 0.564, but when I did the first elimination, that jumped to 0.686, and then on the second one, it leapt to 0.753. Essentially, it is the difference, in scoring terms, between 7 and 9 wins in a season based on historic numbers.

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Once again, this was an exercise conducted under an admittedly arbitrary set of assumptions, but it is interesting to see  the improvements that mere points will bring in numerical terms and give an added dimension – hopefully – to what occurs on the field and how much it means to, well, score.

A fifth and final look at the remaining schedules:

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

#3: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-3

#4: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-4

Similar Read:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/rooting-interests-btt-seeding

Take a look at joeyb's write-up in the board section about rooting interests- he does a good job at describing potential outcomes.  Seeding will likely be a hot mess...

Current Standings:

Who has the hardest schedule?:

In the past I have made scoring systems to rank upcoming schedule etc.- think with two games left that is not necessary.  OSU has the toughest in my mind because @Indiana.  Indiana has a tough schedule as well- but has co-champ locked down.  Wisconsin has two road games, but @MSU and @PSU is easier that Indiana at home and @Purdue in my mind- but I think they will likely lose @MSU.  MSU has the easiest schedule left in my mind- two home games and NW- but they are on a skid...

Thoughts on remaining teams:

Indiana: Already guaranteed at least a split.  They do have two tough games- home against Ohio State and away in Crisler.  Everyone else is rooting for them to lose both- because if not- we have an undisputed champ. OSU will be a tough game, but I don’t think it is probable Indiana loses its last home game.  I think it is still 50-50 against us.  I think they are the better team- but we are very solid at home- and played them well in Indiana.  They have will be playing to wrap up a 1 seed regardless of Big Ten Tournament as well.

Michigan: Well last week was weird… PSU loss really sucks no way around it.  Have to respect PSU playing hard all year- and glad that didn’t go undefeated- but really not glad what it means for a title chance and that the win was against us.  50-50 against Indiana, and at Purdue is looking quite winnable- but with our road struggles it gives me pause.

Michigan State: Let’s see if MSU’s slide continues. Northwestern has fallen apart- and at home that should be an easy W.  I personally hope they beat Wisconsin because I don’t want Wisconsin having a shot a shared title- although I think Indiana has that taken care of (let’s hope I’m wrong).

Ohio State: Last week they looked very out of it- only to have Michigan blow a gimme, MSU go on a big slide, and Indiana give them some semblance of hope.  At Indiana is huge for everybody- and rooting for OSU will be cringe worthy- but my god that would be huge.  If we beat Purdue and OSU pulls the upset Sunday could be one hell of a night.

Wisconsin: At MSU is a tough one and I covered that above.  Let’s hope PSU can get win number 2 (or 3?) as well.  Wish we had Wisconsin at home- don’t think they would keep us too close at home.  If we play them in Big Ten Tournament I would not be too worried… but seriously f*** Wisconsin.

Championship Odds:

Indiana has wrapped up a split- and is clearly in great shape for it to be a solo champion.  I say only 10% chance they lose to OSU and us with having so much to play for, being so consistent, and having a home game.  And for non-Indiana teams 2 losses is all anyone cares about for the boys from Bloomington.

I say MSU has the best odd at staying with 5-losses.  Wisconsin at home will be tough, but NW should not be.

We have the next best bet because I think we will take care of business at Purdue- but that could be too optomistic given our road struggles of late.

Wisconsin has at PSU, so if they can beat MSU in EL they have a decent shot at stay with 5 L's.

OSU plays at Indiana and will paly Illinois at home- with Illinois wanting to be at 500 and make the tournament- so they have the longest odds. 

Let's hope OSU wins (I know... gross) so Sunday will be interesting!  And let's hope we take care of business on the road at Purdue!

Sometimes it seems like the Big Ten is just so crazy analyzing it is pointless- and I hope this is also one of those times- because that would mean the year ended in crazy fashion- and that is needed for a split-championship!

It's amazing how easily we take things for granted. We become acclimated and everything turns into background noise, only to gain our attention when things shift unexpectedly. It's how I felt when I graduated and moved out of Ann Arbor, and it's how I've felt about this year's hockey team.

I was introduced to Michigan hockey in 2006. Having grown up in a house with a die-hard Michigan State alum for a mother and a father who cared more about what went on in the philosophy and astronomy world than the sports world I had some catching up to do. I remeber reading the Daily's hockey season preview and thinking that becoming a fan of Michigan hockey was just a natural extention of my love of the Red Wings. I folded up that newspaper insert and stuck it in my backpack so that I could re-read it whenever I wanted. My conversion to a Michigan hockey fan had begun.

I never made it to a game that season. Instead, I had to rely on keeping up with the team through Daily articles and watching the few games that I could find on TV. Jack Johnson became something of a folk hero to me, a player that I still regret not seeing play while he was wearing the winged helmet. I vowed to myself that I would not make the same mistake twice.

Fall 2007 rolls around and mini-season ticket packages go on sale. A few friends, my girlfriend (who's now my wife) and I decide to get a mini season ticket package. I'll never forget going to my first game at Yost. If there's one arena in the world that can't possibly be done justice by TV this is it. I remember walking in through the cramped corridors and past the ornate woodwork. Then you walk into the stands and it's a fluorescent blast of white exacerbated by a sheet of ice. The corridors scream history while the inside of the rink just screams. If Michigan hockey is powered by a fuse box it only has one switch and that switch, which is permanently flipped, has "ON" printed above it on label tape. 

I went to a CCHA playoff game that season and was struck by how the regular season atmosphere is essentially the same as the playoff atmosphere. There's no way for it to get louder and rowdier than it already is, especially when you're in the student section. At the time that seemed hard to believe. Again, I wasn't used to Michigan hockey just yet. Having been a Red Wings fan for so long you get acclimated to regular season games with half empty lower bowls that switch to rabid sell outs when the second or third round of the playoffs roll around.

The energy of Yost spoiled me, and I didn't realize that until this season. When things are about to be taken away from you, that's when you realize just how good you had it. I didn't think there would be a CCHA playoff game at Yost this year. Not after watching a team that had block M's on the front of their jersey but looked oh so unfamiliar otherwise. Now I realize just how amazing the atmosphere at Yost is. Now I realize just how important the CCHA playoffs are. These aren't throwaway games anymore, this is our ticket to the tournament. And, finally, I'm watching a Michigan team that I recognize. This is a team that somehow, someway dug deep and emerged from the shell of...well, whatever that was that took the ice from October through February. Maybe they realized what I realized; it's easy to take things for granted until you're about to lose them.

There aren't many goals to breakdown here, but that's a good thing. A team that was allowing almost four goals per game gave up two this weekend. Two! And I can't even make a joke about only giving up two and it not even being non-exhibition play because they gave up more than that to like Windsor, man. Let's analyze: