alternate headline: man does job
(6-5, 0-0 Patriot)
|Wins (RPI 150+)|
|337||Nov. 13||Sacred Heart||122-118|
|308||Nov. 20||@ Fairfield||63-49|
|330||Nov. 30||@ New Hampshire||63-52|
|328||Dec. 21||@ N.J.I.T.||74-55|
|Losses (RPI 1-50)|
|21||Nov. 15||@ North Carolina||54-62|
|Losses (RPI 51-100)|
|Losses (RPI 101-150)|
|Losses (RPI 150+)|
|295||Dec. 7||@ Hartford||78-90|
Starting Five Stats
Key Bench Players
I assume we will see little to no McGary on the floor, but I don't think will be a problem. Holy Cross doesn't really jump out to me as any threat to upset Michigan.
Michigan 84 - Holy Cross 56
THE GIFT OF MGOBLOG
Now that we have perhaps received the best gift of 2013 – the return of the voting system – and in the spirit of the holiday season, I wanted to share some thoughts on what I like to think of as “The Gift Of MGoBlog”.
In a way, the space in which many of us share our daily musings about the state of Michigan’s varsity sports is a gift, one provided free of charge and one provided so that a diverse group of people with one unifying interest can come and discuss their Wolverines. We may not always have our best face on while doing so, as this past football season indicated, but at no point did we really check out even if some threatened to do so. For those of us whose spouses look strangely at us when we jump out of our seats during significant plays, we get from MGoBlog the gift of people who totally understand that behavior and connect with people who share in the emotion of those moments.
Like many gifts, it is an incredibly practical one with multiple uses. Looking at it this way, I don’t know if anyone could ask for a better gift. Many of us have more than just one purpose for this blog. We get information, we get entertained and we get to know other Michigan fans and we begin to appreciate just how wide the reach of the fanbase really is. These three things combine, in my opinion, to provide what might be the best gift that MGoBlog can give to us – it makes us better Michigan fans for the knowledge, the entertainment and the sense of community. I have always believed that if we walk away from here at the end of the day having learned something about our favorite team and school, or we walk away having gotten the chance to understand a fellow fan and their insights, then the gift has been imparted.
At least in my case, I know that my three years here have made me a better, more informed fan and a more connected one. I have learned so much that I didn’t know about my alma mater, learned things about football and other sports that I didn’t know and learned that there are fans out there as obsessed as I am about Michigan and Michigan things. The chance to become a moderator in March gave me the opportunity to give back for all the site has provided me as well, and I like to think that the greatest gift we can give to the site would be positive contributions and being a responsible member of the community here.
As we trudge on through the holiday season, sliding into the final hours before Christmas, remember that here, we’ve been given a gift and one that expands and becomes more significant each day as we add our insights and personality to it. For those of us who are more than a casual fan, it is one of the most thoughtful gifts we could get as well, a place where we can have the discussions that we might not be able to have with many of those around us on a daily basis.
With that in mind, I would like to thank Brian and the MGoBlog staff for another year of great insights, informed content and allowing us to be part of this community. This fall may have been trying for many of us, but the gift of MGoBlog remains as vibrant and popular as ever (especially since voting has returned).
Have a safe and excellent holiday season!
After watching a December basketball game paint Brooklyn Maize, I was inspired to pass along a thank you.
It’s well known that Michigan has the largest living alumni base of any university. There are many of us who are proud alums and who never have to “justify” our fanhood. Being a Michigan fan came easy to me. The son of two alums (and native Michiganders) I was almost pre-destined to head to Ann Arbor after I graduated high school, despite having grown up outside Chicago. I was lucky and worked hard and managed to go to Michigan and graduate in 2009. There are many who aren’t as lucky as I was. To those of you who are fans of Michigan despite not having a degree: Thank you. You may have been questioned, demeaned even for supporting College Football’s most winning program.
Some may call you “Walmart Wolverine” in a derogatory manner because you choose to support Michigan. But guess what – Michigan doesn’t succeed without the support of everyone: Students, Alumni, Faculty, and (as Fielding Yost called them) “Friends of the University”. It’s true. Michigan Stadium doesn’t get built without non-alumni fans.
From page 190 of Soderstrom’s The Big House* “No one: no student, no alumnus, and no friend of the university would be “giving" anything to the athletic department. Rather, the athletic department would sell a bond at a given amount of interest and pay back all the money over time… it had always been a Michigan athletic tradition that no attempt would be made to secure funds from the state, like the school in East Lansing had done for its new stadium.” Yost needed investors to build the Big House, and it turns out that the first bond letter had provided a “disappointing alumni response” (Page 318)
After bonds were extended to anyone who wished to buy them, not just alumni, “by early 1927, the whole initial issue, 2000 bonds, was sold.” Yost actually angered some alumni (and students, who felt that their seats were terrible even then) by making sure that there were new seating blocks in Michigan Stadium that were specifically NOT for alumni. Yost’s appeal was as such: “’This is a State University – not a privately endowed institution. Ownership of this institution is vested not in our students, faculty, and alumni – but in the people whose taxes make it possible’ Yost would never tire of making this point” (Page 194). I’ll take Yost's point one step further – It’s not just the taxes or the tuition, but ANY support of Michigan makes you a “real” fan. Maybe you can’t afford tuition and thus aren’t an alum. Maybe you don’t live in Michigan and don’t pay Michigan state taxes. Maybe you can’t afford season tickets (which are no longer $2.50 per game like they were in the 1920s), maybe all you do is own some apparel and visit MGoBlog – both of which provide support to Michigan no matter how small. The next time someone asks you if you went to Michigan, just remember that it was fans like you (not just alums!) who gave us the greatest football stadium in the world. And remember that there can be a little inferiority complex around East Lansing, after all they needed money from the state to build their stadium.
*As an aside if you need a stocking stuffer or just a great read on Michigan’s history, I couldn’t recommend Soderstrom’s book more. Click through the MGoLink to Amazon and order it!
(8-2, 0-0 Pac-12)
Key Bench Players
Basically none, very starter oriented. BUT:
When I first saw Stanford on the schedule, I assumed this was going to be an easy win and look decent as far as quality wins go because they are in a power conference. Well, I was only half right. These teams numbers are very similar and Stanford has that quality win that Michigan is lacking. One thing that will really pop out to you is that their starting five is all upperclassmen. There is no doubt we are the more talented team, but they have the experience on their side.
Michigan had a much needed week off to prepare for this game and get healthy. Stanford is coming off a huge road win for them, but won't have as many days to prepare for Michigan.
Michigan 72 - Stanford 64
Back a few years ago, Seth put together a really neat FEI-based analysis of the bowl games. He not only picked winners in the games, he also created a "watchability index," which looked at how "good" the games would be in terms of quality and evenly matched the teams were. This allowed him to make the most of his limited CFB watching time over the holidays, an objective I shared. So, I stole his idea last year and put together a similar but much less sophisticated analysis, and got 69% of the picks correct while not having any one too mad at me for wanting to watch a select set of games.
I did a similar analysis this year, while adding FEI * in to the mix (full analysis here). In essence, I compared all the teams in terms of Sagarin and FEI, and using the difference between them picked the winners and the confidence in the picks. That is, a huge difference in the ratings of the teams suggests a lock, a difference of zero is a push.
Here's what I came up with for picks. The the two pick columns are who Sagarin and FEI predict will win the games, and the confidence ranks represent the picks about which each metric is "most confident," i.e. the biggest difference between the two teams, with higher numbers indicating more confidence. I then added the two confidence rankings up, which provides the following results. There were a few games where Sagarin and FEI's predictions did not line up - those should be some of the more closely contested games. Good luck in your bowl pools and happy holidays.
|Pinstripe||12/28/2013||Notre Dame||35||Notre Dame||35||70||0|
|Holiday||12/30/2013||Arizona State||33||Arizona State||33||66||0|
|Beef 'O' Brady's||12/23/2013||East Carolina||28||East Carolina||34||62||0|
|GoDaddy||1/5/2014||Ball State||27||Ball State||31||58||0|
|Las Vegas||12/21/2013||Southern California||26||Southern California||26||52||0|
|Heart of Dallas||1/1/2014||North Texas||16||North Texas||30||46||0|
|BCS Championship||1/6/2014||Florida State||34||Florida State||12||46||0|
|New Mexico||12/21/2013||Washington State||32||Washington State||9||41||0|
|Little Caesars||12/26/2013||Bowling Green||17||Bowling Green||16||33||0|
|Chick-fil-A||12/31/2013||Texas A&M||20||Texas A&M||13||33||0|
|Orange||1/3/2014||Ohio State||5||Ohio State||23||28||0|
|Liberty||12/31/2013||Mississippi State||15||Mississippi State||10||25||0|
|Belk||12/28/2013||North Carolina||11||North Carolina||4||15||0|
|Capital One||1/1/2014||Wisconsin||8||South Carolina||5||13||1|
|Hawaii||12/24/2013||Oregon State||10||Boise State||3||13||1|
|Music City||12/30/2013||Georgia Tech||2||Mississippi||8||10||1|
|Buffalo Wild Wings||12/28/2013||Kansas State||9||PUSH||1||10||1|
|Poinsettia||12/26/2013||Utah State||3||Utah State||6||9||0|
* I will admit that I am not 100% confident in the interpretation of FEI here. I have not yet been able to find a good explanation of what this represents beyond the standard explanation that Brian Fremeau provides on his website, "...the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured." If you have a statistical-minded explanation, I'd be very interested to hear it.
[ed: bump for epicness. contains swearing, obviously. Wait. What? Oh are you f-ing kidding me about JT Compher breaking his foot. I HATE ALL THINGS.]
THE STATE OF OUR OPEN THREADS: A SEASON IN PROFANITY
We’ve entered December and the relative lull between the end of the regular season for football, bowl games and conference basketball. We have undoubtedly looked back on 2013 and said our peace and expressed our frustrations with how things went this year.
As you know, of course, your frustrations were measured here and compiled into a series of short summaries which began to appear midseason, and this was called “The State Of Our Threads”. I was the originator of the idea, but I actually was not the first to post it because I was a little leery of how people might react to the self-effacing blog humor that it was meant to be. I have CooperLily21 to thank for introducing this initially.
Well, now that the season is over and our thoughts have collected, it is time to look at how we got mad, what made us mad and how often we were mad.
For the same of simplicity, I tracked seven words or types of references. One of them, specifically “put in Morris”, was more for something which will appear in another part of this work. It was a very productive year with 4,843 occurrences of these tracked words and references. All of them as well as their relative frequency of use are in the table and chart below.
|TOTAL||AVERAGE||STD. DEV.||% oF TOTAL|
|"put in Morris"||187||15.58||16.81||3.86%|
There were some other interesting statistics to report as well.
The average number of instances of the tracked words for a home game, for example, was 256 and for away games, it was 611. In other words, we swore at an average rate 2.38 times greater during our away games than our home games. I am fairly certain our performance in some of those games has a hand in that number.
The average thread size (or combined posting volume in both threads, if there were two) for a home game was 1,283 posts, but for an away game, it was 1,929. As noted above, this is probably due to performance in some of these games which led to some of us having much to say, and per this study, not much of it was kind.
Most interesting of all to me, 70.06% of all tracked swearing was done during away games, compared to only 29.94% for home games. This is sort of given to you in the average per-game comparison above, but the percentages here really paint the picture, I think. In our collective perception, we were not good on the road and here is further evidence of that perception.
One other question you might have is which games contributed most to the total. You probably would not be shocked if I told you that, by themselves, Penn State, Northwestern and Iowa contributed to 55.40% of all instances of the tracked words. Even though one of those was a win, these three games left us the most perturbed.
THE MOOD CHART
What did the MGoMood look like on a plot? See the Mood Chart below:
Using the normalized values of each major component – thread size and swearing frequency (I used the average of the tracked words), we get a decent handle on the board’s general mood throughout the course of the football season. As you can see, we spent much of it rather upset, although there were noted exceptions. One thing we can hypothesize here is that the people who threatened to check out and said they would be done with this team probably came to say something anyway, because although Nebraska may have left us feeling the most numb per the graph, we still definitely felt something.
[AFTER THE JUMP: WHAT MADE US MAD, other than everything, and the most MGoBlog stat of all time: swearing efficiency.]