Diaries

The recruiting rankings are front-paged this week as we have a change at the top. Unfortunately, you probably know the change, and you're almost certainly not going to like it: Ohio State jumps Michigan after picking up four recruits (and the Wolverines losing Caleb Stacey, though that wouldn't have mattered in terms of the standings). Otherwise, the team rankings hold steady as we near signing day. Action since last rankings:

1-15-12: Taylor Decker changes commitment from Notre Dame to Ohio State. Illinois picks up T.J. Neal.
1-16-12: Penn State picks up Jordan Lucas.
1-17-12: Ohio State picks up Joey O'Connor. Gunner Kiel changes commitment from LSU to Notre Dame. Minnesota picks up Roland Johnson.
1-18-12: Ohio State picks up David Perkins. Minnesota picks up K.J. Maye.
1-20-12: Camren Williams changes commitment from Penn State to Ohio State.
1-21-12: Caleb Stacey changes commitment from Michigan to Cincinnati. Nebraska picks up LeRoy Alexander. Zach Jackson changes commitment from Illinois to TCU. Illinois picks up Justin Hardee. Minnesota picks up Ben Lauer.

Chart? Chart:

*ESPN doesn't rate JuCos, so they are counted as unranked recruits for the sake of consistency (trust me, it makes sense when you look at the spreadsheet).
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

On to the full data, after the jump.

Of course I'm biased in my desire here but I'd sure like to see the San Francisco 49ers versus the New England Patriots in the upcoming Super Bowl.   Just imagine the positive impact this may have on recruiting high school athletes around the country as they tune in to the constant buildup of sports talk high-lighting the obvious common bond between Tom Brady and Jim Harbaugh. If this comes to pass I envision a bombardment of discussion contrasting the two former Michigan quarterbacks - their records and accomplishments at Michigan, life styles, personal ambitions, and NFL careers. Wow! This could be a cavalcade of prime time publicity for Michigan football. This is why I'm pulling for second place finishes for the Giants and Ravens today.

It's no secret that Trey Burke is having a rather special freshman season. I got to wondering how special after reading the following in an annarbor.com article from about a week ago:

[John Beilein] says he's never had a freshman point guard quite like this one.

"I look at (ex-Michigan point guard Darius Morris') year-long stats from his freshman year," Beilein said. "Here's Darius, who was playing with Kobe the other night, and Trey already has more assists in this season than Darius had his whole freshman year.

"And Darius was a heck of a player. It's not normal. I can't recall (a freshman point guard) having this type (of year). It's been very rare that we've had ([to] play a freshman this much). It's rare, but it's been very good."

Burke's Year in Historical Context 

So how does Burke's freshman year to date stack up against the freshman seasons of other point guards in Michigan history? To measure this, I borrowed a tool the Wall Street Journal used last year to identify MVP guards (with Darius Morris coming out on top). I like this metric because it's simple, easy to understand, but also quite telling. As the WSJ explained, it calculates "which players are involved in the highest percentage of their team's field goals, either via assists or by making shots themselves." The formula is simple: field goals made (FGM) + assists/team FGM.

Using the Men's Basketball Statistic Archive, here are the results for the freshman years of Michigan's leaders in assists (not all of whom were point guards):

So Trey Burke is right there among the leaders for this metric. (Note that two of U-M's top assists men didn't have freshman years at the school: Rickey Greene was a junior college transfer, while Rumeal Robinson was ineligible his freshman season.) For comparison's sake, Darius Morris finished his sophomore season with 201 FGM and 235 assists, which meant he was involved in a remarkable 51.5 percent of the team's 847 FGM.

Burke among Cousy Award Finalists

How does Burke's season compare with that of his contemporaries? Quite well, when you use the same metric to compare this year's finalists for the Bob Cousy Award, which goes to the nation's top point guard.

Burke comes in 5th place overall and 2nd only to UConn's Shabazz Napier among the finalists from major conferences. This provides some further proof of just how good a season he's having—and how valuable he is to his team. I think it also shows why he should remain among the Cousy finalists when the list is narrowed down from 20 to 10 in early February.

Michigan Hockey: ND preview

#10 Michigan (14-8-4) at #7 Notre Dame (13-8-3)

1/20/12 7:35pm NBC Sports Network

1/21/12 7:35pm CBS Sports Network

There is one thing that makes Notre Dame different then every team we have played so far. They have a lot of highlight videos and they weren't shot with a camera someone borrowed from their mom.

Forward Overview:

Notre Dame comes into the series with the nations 27^th best scoring attack, but nothing really stands out out from the offense of the Fighting Irish on paper except the center domination. On film is a different story, the set offense is really bad but the breakout is outstanding.

The other thing they are really good at is taking advantage of opponents mistakes, cutting down neutral ice turnovers is a must for the game. This is how they win games, the offense is average, the defense is terrible but they still win because of the ability to turn a mistake into a goal.

Key matchup for this game is getting simple, get back fast and pay attention. It sounds simple but it's something we struggled with most of the season, so we might see Red scale back the forecheck if Notre Dame is cracking it early.

Defensive Overview:

Led by robbie Russo and Sam Calabrese, Notre Dame enters this weekend showdown with the nations 27^th ranked defense. To put it into perspective as to how bad that is, Michigan's defense at the worst point in the season never got lower then 15^th. Stephen Johns is the only ND blueliner who has a positive +/- but he spends too much time in the box to really do anything, the rest of the guys just look lost.

Key matchup for this game: Just shoot the puck, with major alignment issues and a goalie who gives up rebounds the scoring chances will be there. The Northeastern team who took us down 4-1 at Yost went to Compton and smoked the Irish 9-2 the next game.

Goalies:

Why not hug the post?

After posting great numbers his sophomore season Mike Johnson was supposed to be among the nations elite goaltenders, what happened? You could blame the defense but this isn't all on them, its not their fault when the goalie aligns improperly. Neither netminder is playing great hockey, but there is a good chance we could see both Johnson and Summerhays this weekend.

The key matchup is the same as for defense, just shoot the puck. Good things will happen if the puck is getting to the net, but this is a streaky team so getting on them early is important.

Michigan Overview:

Red has worked his magic again, he has managed to get quality defense out of a group who couldn't play a lick of it for half a season. The re-emergence of Kevin Lynch helped and Andrew Sinelli

has been a nice addition, but was the answer benching Lindsay Sparks? Maybe not but it definitely helped, and with him getting less time others have made their presence on the ice felt.

It also looks like the lines are settled which is a major plus. Coming into the year this team had so many freshman that they didn't know who would be best on which line, but it seems like it has been figured out.

Defensive Overview:

Four games later we are still talking about how important the addition of Jon Merrill is and its still amazing how much one player changes things.

The forechecking has been ridiculous and the biggest key to our success, and when the Buckeyes did gain the zone most of the shots they took came from the side boards or other low percentage areas.

One thing that has been overshadowed by the recent events is how great Lee Moffie has been playing. He has been a solid performer all season, but when the team needed someone to elevate their game he stepped up in a major way.

Goalie

It's been so long since we saw what Hunwick could do with a functional defense, yeah it's awesome. When he's on his game like that we aren't going to lose very many times. Stop hitting forwards after the whistle, other than that there isn't much else to say.

Prediction

Although Michigan is red hot right now, at some point we have to cool down, and Notre Dame is a team whos playing style gives them an edge over us. It's weird how a team with such average stats wins so many games, but I feel like the Irish will take game one before Michigan bounces back saturday at Compton for the split.

After doing the first four years of this I took a break, but I've finally returned to it.  

To start this one off I want to discuss my purpose and process for a moment.  This is not a pure numbers survey, that's the bailiwick of The Mathlete.  My goal is to approach the championship saying "What are the fewest teams that have a resume that entitles them to have a shot at the national championship?".  So my human bias as an author does creep in.  

One thing I want to stress, if I'm trying to do this from a need based approached.  What is the minimum number of teams we need.  Where can we draw a line and say: Everyone on one side of this line has a resume weaker than the people on the other side.  Not what we as fans want to see.  Basically if at the end of the season we do resume voting for just that season, how many teams took care of business in the regular season and should have a shot at holding the crystal ball.  

To recap the results from last time, I found the people on the stronger side of the line was:

• 1998: 4 teams
• 1999: 2 teams
• 2000: 4 teams
• 2001: 4 teams

From that review I suggested that a four team playoff looks like the minimum you need.  I did not find a season where you had a 5th team with a resume that made them worthy (although we come close in 1998 with A&M).  I also did not find a season where you'd have trouble finding 4 teams to round the playoff out (although 1999 comes close when you have to settle for two loss Wisconsin or Alabama as the 4th, both teams choked on a cupcake and the #3 team only has one loss). 

From the above as I go I'm using the hypothesis that:  "In any given season you can eliminate two of the six auto qualifying conference champs and have a nice four team field."  As I go forward I'll see if this gets supported or rejected and what the rising strength of the MWC does to this (because then I'm looking at rejecting 3 from 7 instead of 2 from 6).  At least Notre Dame always sucks, so I don't have to worry about them.

2002/2003 BCS:

Championship Game: #2 Ohio State defeats #1 Miami

Who Else Had A Claim:

Miami: Finishes the season 12-0.  So they are undefeated and get the immunity idol.  Miami beats two ranked teams in conference play and two ranked teams in OOC play (FSU and Florida).  That's a nice schedule and they come out undefeated.  

Ohio State: Undefeated as well.  They defeat one ranked team in OOC play (Washington State) and three ranked Big Ten teams.  

ACC:  Maryland finishes ranked #13 and 11-3.  The lose to ranked FSU teams and lose to an unranked Notre Dame squad in their season opener.  That Notre Dame squad though finishes 10-3/#17 though.  Florida State actually wins the division despite being 9-4.  FSU goes 7-1 in division play (losing to NC State).  Three of FSU's four losses are to good teams (Miami, ND, and NC State).  NC State also finishes the season 11-3 and ranked, with losses too Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Virginia.  

I can't really see arguing how anything out of this mess of teams has a resume to compete with a pair  of undefeated conference champs.  So I'm discarding the ACC 

Big 12:  Oklahoma finishes off the season 11-2 and wins the B12.  They get five ranked wins over four teams (had to play Colorado twice) and losses to A&M and OSU.  Some years this would be enough, but not in a year with two undefeated teams that each have four ranked wins.

PAC10: A 10-2 WSU and a 10-2 USC end up at the top of the conference.  USC loses to WSU and a ranked KSU early in the year.  WSU loses to Ohio State, Washington and then gets defeated by OU in the Rose Bowl.  The PAC10 is like the ACC, where multiple teams had a chance to seize the day, win out, and finish the season with a good resume.  They did't though.  

SEC: Georgia wins the SEC, but a lose in Nov to #22 Florida robs them of an undefeated season.  They end the season with four wins over ranked teams and defeat FSU in the Sugar Bowl for a fifth ranked win.

Independents/MWC:  TCU and ND have decent years.  The Domers beat four ranked teams but do trip against Boston College and lose to USC.  TCU destroys almost everything in its path, but chokes on San Jose State (and loses its bowl game to Southern Mississippi).  TCU's weak MWC schedule definitely haunts them here, along with the fact that two other teams go undefeated.

The Verdict on 2002:

This could have been an ugly year for selection.  Maryland, FSU, NC State, OU, USC, Georgia, Washington State, Notre Dame, and maybe even TCU all end the season a couple of scores away from having the resume needed to play in the BCS Title Game.

The BCS is saved from too much controversy thanks to Miami and tOSU finishing out with four ranked wins each and no losses.  Had either of those teams lost, then Georgia has a claim.  In a four team system that would leave OU and Washington State with about equal claim to the fourth game.  Notre Dame is right behind them (although through the transitive property WSU > ND).  I'd  also imagine some people making a case for the one loss TCU, but they do lack ranked wins.  

This is a results based system though, so I'd say the final ruling is two teams.

2003/2004 BCS:

Championship Game: #2 LSU defeats #1 Oklahoma 

Who Else Had A Claim:

Oklahoma:  Didn't actually have a claim.  They didn't win their conference.  They defeat three ranked teams in conference play, but lose to #12 KSU in the title game (KSU 35, OU 7).  If you don't win your conference, you don't play for the national title.  So OU is gone.

LSU: Defeats 4 ranked teams, but losses by 12 points to an unranked Florida team.  Florida ends 8-5 and ranked at the end of the season, so that doesn't look too bad.  Winning the SEC and only have one loss is fairly good, but lets see if anyone has anything better:

ACC:  Florida State loses to a ranked Miami team (twice, they had to play them in their OOC schedule and in the Orange Bowl, urgh).  FSU also loses to Clemson by 16 points (Clemson ends the year ranked).  The following week they need 2 OTs to beat NC State (who finishes 8-5 and unranked).  FSU's only ranked win is over Florida.  FSU also beats Maryland early in the season before Maryland is ranked (Maryland finishes 10-3).  So FSU finishes with two losses, but they do beat the team that beats LSU.  Lets see what other conferences have to offer in their champion.

B12:  A three loss KSU (complete with a loss to Marshall) beats OU down in the championship and wins the conference.  But two of KSU's three losses are to unranked teams.  Their third is to a ranked Texas outfit.  They also beat ranked Nebraska and OU.  What else do we have.

Big East: Miami finishes the season with losses to Tennessee (10-3, #15) and and Virginia Tech (8-5).  They do beat Florida who in turn had beaten LSU.  

Big Ten:  Michigan finishes off the year with two loses.  A four point loss to Oregon and a three point loss to Iowa.  We defeat five ranked teams and then lose by two scores to USC.  A 10-2 Ohio State finishes off the season ranked ahead of us, but we beat them so we have the tie breaker.  As a side note I still remember chanting: "Capitol One Bowl!" at the tOSU fans as they left.  Anyway Michigan finishes with two losses to ranked teams (although Oregon does not finish the reason ranked) and wins over five ranked teams (although by the end of the year MSU was not ranked).  

PAC10: USC is a soulless killing machine, aside from Cal.  They lose to Cal early in the season (in triple OT).  Their biggest problem is a weak schedule.  Their ranked games are Auburn and Washington State.  Plus of course a two touchdown victory over a Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  

Independents/MWC:  A two loss Utah.  They lost to Texas A&M and New Mexico State.  They defeat a ranked Oregon (Oregon does not finished ranked).  Considering the resumes of the other conference champions, I'm not really high on Utah.

The Verdict on 2003:  

This whole season is a mess.  LSU has the strongest resume, but it really doesn't separate them from the pack.  After them you have a mess of teams like USC with only one loss, but only two ranked victories.  Then there is Michigan at two losses but more ranked victories.  Miami, KSU, and FSU all have slightly weaker resumes in terms of ranked teams defeated, but they aren't terrible.  

This is definitely a season where people with different criteria will select different teams.  Personally I'd say three teams have legit claims: LSU, Michigan, and USC.  

2004/2005 BCS: 

Championship Game: #1 USC defeats #2 Oklahoma (vacated)

Who Else Had A Claim:

USC:  Undefeated, soulless killing machine yet again.  Solid resume.  No issues with their selection.

OU: Undefeated manages to win their division this year.  Solid resume.  They're in.  

ACC:  Virginia Tech finishes off the season 10-2.  They open the season against USC and only loss by a single touchdown.  They also lose by one point to an unranked NC State team (who finishes 5-6).  They defeat ranked WVU, Virginia, and Maryland teams.  They lose to Auburn by 3 in their bowl game.  A solid showing all around, although two loses are not so good when you have multiple undefeated teams in play.  

Big East:  Four conference co-champions.  Including a 6-6 Syracuse (4-2 in conference play) team.  I'm sorry but when a 6-6 is conference co-champ, no.  Just no.  (9-3 Boston College is the best of the lot).

Big Ten:  Michigan finishes off 10-2.  Losses to Notre Dame (who goes 6-6) and to Ohio State (who finishes up ranked but 8-4 overall).  When we play them Purdue and Minnesota are ranked, but they do not finish the season ranked.  We defeat an unranked Iowa who does finish the season ranked.  Michigan losses to Texas by one point.  We're in the same boat as Virginia Tech.  

SEC:  Auburn is undefeated.  They beat four ranked teams in the regular season and a fifth in their bowl.  All ranked teams are in the Top 15.  

Independent/MWC:  Utah is undefeated.  They do not play a ranked team.  

The Verdict on 2004:  

If you had just two undefeated teams, this would be easy and a year you only need two to settle it all up.  As it stands you have a clear Top 3 of USC, OU, and Auburn.  following them up you have Utah (Point: They are undefeated.  Counterpoint:  They played a shit schedule) and the two loss ACC and B10 teams (Point: Stronger schedule than Utah.  Counterpoint: Two losses a piece).

So I'm calling three as the final verdict here in terms of where I can draw the line of "everyone after this line has a weaker resume".    

2005/2006 BCS

Championship Game: Texas defeats USC

Who Else Had A Claim:

USC:  Soulless killing machine.  Defeats 5 ranked teams.  Undefeated.  Legit claim.

Texas: Undefeated.  Defeats 3 ranked teams.  Legit claim.

ACC:  A four loss FSU team wins the ACC championship game.  Had VT taken care of business a 10-1 VT team would have emerged from the ACC as the victor.  Instead a four loss team does.  No sale on FSU.

Big East:  WVU is in fine form with a special someone at the helm.  They lose to Virginia Tech early in the season (who finishes out 11-2 for the year).  WVU suffers from three issues.  First they start the season unranked.  Secondly they lose a game early on, which means they are not ranked until the first weak of November.  Finally the only ranked team they play is Louisville.  They defeat Georgia in their bowl by three points.  

Big Ten:  Penn State finishes off 11-1.  So close, yet so far.  They defeat three ranked teams but loss to an unranked Michigan team (who finishes up 7-5).  Thank you Super Mario.  

SEC:  Georgia wins the SEC with two losses.  Both were to ranked teams.  Georgia defeats four ranked teams.  As a side note, had LSU won the SEC Title game, LSU would have come out of the SEC with only one loss and wins over four ranked teams.  

Independent/MWC:  TCU opens the season strong with a win over ranked Oklahoma.  They then lose to SMU the following week.  They play no one else who is ranked and finish off the season with a three point win over Iowa State in their bowl.  

The Verdict on 2005:

Once again the BCS benefits from the fact only two teams went undefeated.  You have someone drop a game here or there and suddenly selection gets really ugly really fast.

Final verdict is two.

Super Mario

The Summary So Far:

• 1998: 4 teams
• 1999: 2 teams
• 2000: 4 teams
• 2001: 4 teams
• 2002: 2 teams
• 2003: 3 teams
• 2004: 3 teams
• 2005: 2 teams

It appears every year you never have more four conference champions who cannot be separated from the others by the virtue of their resume.  It so far you can throw out at least 3 of the 7 (counting the MWC).

What is different in this set of years though is when we have three teams there is now a problem selecting a fourth.  In 2003 there is three times basically tied for fourth.  The same in 2004.  In 2002 and 2005, had one of the undefeated teams lost, a can of worms also would have been opened.

If we have a 4 team playoff:

In 2002 and 2005 there are multiple teams who can point to the teams that got the #3 and #4 seeds and complain they are equal to thos eteams. In 2003 and 2004 there are multiple teams who can point to the team that got the #4 seed and complain. 

If you want complete fairness you go with a 6 team playoff to avoid this.  The other possible response is to say to WVU:  "Why yes you are comparable to PSU/Georgia  However your resume is not comparable to  that of USC or Texas. If you wanted to avoid getting screwed by the polls, go undefeated like Texas/USC did."  It all depends on what you like.  

If you go with a 6 team playoff:  

This era (2002 through 2005) goes a lot smoother.  However…

In 1999/2000 you're letting in two loss teams from the Big Ten and SEC as your 4 and 5 seeds.  Your sixth seed is likely #10 Marshall, the undefeated MAC champion (Stanford wins the PAC with 4 losses).  In 2000/2001 you're letting less three loss teams from the Big Ten and SEC in to your playoff.  Ugh. (Or you're recycling teams who game in second in their conference.)

If you go above 6:

You're likely letting all those teams who choked in their conference championship back in.  There aren't enough quality opponents coming out of the smaller conferences to really flush out a bracket, so some teams are getting a second shot.  At that point we're not allowed to be outraged about Alabama getting a do over, but we can be outraged about not getting a do over against tOSU.  Pick your poison on that one.  

Also the 1999/20001 bracket and 2000/2001 brackets would look terrible.  

Closing Up:

I still have 2006 to the present to go, but so far is is what I'm seeing from the review:

A 4 team system works better for the first four years.  It keeps you from having to seeding pretty bad teams into the playoff or seeding in people who did not win their conference.  

In the next four years, a 4 year system does not leave a conference champ with a really strong resume out in the cold.  It seems you can draw a cut off point at the #2 or #3 seed and say "Everyone who comes after this team has an inferior resume."  You then end up with multiple teams squabbling for that last spots.  A six birth playoff solves this.

Up Next: 2006 and beyond….

Thank you to Brian for allowing me to post this. I hope this interests the MGoBlog community.

I am a member of a sponsored student organization at Michigan called Appreciate + Reciprocate. We are a group of University of Michigan students that gives back to Ann Arbor and surrounding communities through service and fundraising. All of our fundraising efforts directly benefit the LSA Emergency Student Aid Fund for students in extreme financial crises.

Each year, Appreciate + Reciprocate holds a benefit dinner and silent auction to raise money for the fund. The benefit dinner is open to the public and tickets for this year's dinner are on sale now. Details are located below:

Date:                     March 28, 2012

Location:              Jack Roth Stadium Club (East Tower of Michigan Stadium)

Speakers:             Coach Lloyd Carr, Coach Brady Hoke, Dhani Jones, and Mike Martin

Tentative Program for the Event:

6:00pm                 Appetizers, Meet & Greet
7:00pm                 Dinner Begins
7:45pm                 Keynote Speeches
8:45pm                 Silent Auction Announcements
9:00pm                 Event Concludes

Tickets:

Students - $50
Regular Seating - $100
Premium Seating - $200

Silent auction items will include a game of 1 on 1 basketball with former Michigan Basketball team captain CJ Lee, and a tour of the new Player Development Center with Assistant Men’s Basketball Coach Bacari Alexander. More items will be added as the event approaches.

For more information, or to purchase tickets, please visit our website at umichappreciate.org.

*Table sponsorships for local businesses are available. Please see our website for contact information to receive pricing and availability.