I am hoping to turn this into a regular series of posts including a recap post earlier in the week. I just hope to make this into something college hockey fans on this site can turn to and be updated and slightly informed on what is going on around the country. In the preview posts I will list out all games involving the pairwise top 20, B1G games, and Michigan Opponents (past and future).

Lets try this out:

Week 18:

Friday, January 23 (all rankings are Pairwise ranks as of 1/22 and all times in EST)

5:00 #5 Minnesota-Duluth  vs  #38 Bemidji State
7:00 #29 Ohio State @  #41 Michigan State
7:00 #27 Northern Michigan @  #22 Penn State
7:00 #50 Air Force @  #58 American International
7:00 #26 Alaska @  #11 Michigan Tech
7:00 #8 Boston University @  #12 Vermont
7:00 #36 New Hampshire @  #49 Maine
7:00 #36 Dartmouth @ #16 Colgate
7:00 #7 Harvard @  #30 Cornell
7:00 #10 Yale @ #23 St. Lawrence
7:00 #50 Massachusetts @ #16 Merrimack
7:00 #53 Lake Superior @ #3 Bowling Green
7:15 #14 Providence @ #9 UMass-Lowell
7:30 #12 Denver @ #6 Miami
8:00 #1 Minnesota State vs #19 Minnesota
8:00 #42 Colorado College @ #4 North Dakota
9:00 #15 Michigan @ #54 Wisconsin

Key Games:
- Penn State steps out of conference play to host a top 30 opponent at Pegula with the chance to help out their conference members RPI marginally.
- UMass-Lowell (a top 10 team Michigan beat on the road earlier this season) has a chance to knock off a top15 opponent at home.
- Ohio State travels to East Lansing in a matchup of middle of the road B1G teams.
- Michigan travels out to Madison and NEEDS to sweep all 6 points to keep their at-large bid hopes alive if they were to falter at the B1G Tournament. Wisconsin goaltender Joel Rumpel will provide a tough test for Michigan's high powered offense but the key to this series is Michigan playing solid defense.
- Huge Tournament taking place in St. Paul Minnesota. It is known as the North Star College Cup and features 3 teams in the top 20 of the Pairwise rankings heading into the weekend. For Michigan fans we should be rooting for Minnesota to win the tournament for the 2nd consecutive year (just started last year) and the first step to do that is beating the #1 team in the nation Friday night. The setup is just like the GLI in that you play one game and then the losers play in a 3rd place game and the winners meet up in a championship game; so it is possible Minnesota could pick up 2 Top 5 wins this weekend which would be a help for not only their resume but help Michigan's too.

Saturday January 24

4:30 #27 Northern Michigan @ #22 Penn State
5:00 North Star College Cup 3rd Place Game
7:00 #29 Ohio State @ #41 Michigan State
7:00 #9 UMass-Lowell @ #14 Providence
7:00 #26 Alaska @ #11 Michigan Tech
7:00 #50 Air Force @ #58 American International
7:00 #8 Boston University @ #12 Vermont
7:00 #7 Harvard @ #16 Colgate
7:00 #16 Merrimack @ #50 Massachusetts
7:00 #12 Denver @ #6 Miami
7:00 #53 Lake Superior @ #3 Bowling Green
7:30 #39 Rensselaer @ #33 Union
8:00 North Star College Cup Championship Game
8:00 #15 Michigan @ #54 Wisconsin
8:00 #42 Colorado College @ #4 North Dakota

New Key Games:
- UMass-Lowell flips around for the second half of the home and home with #14 Providence and a road win for a team that Michigan beat is helpful
- Air Force travels and faces #58 American International. hey Michigan beat AIT and why not hope they can win a game against a fellow bottom 10 team??
- RPI goes on the road for a one game weekend against a slightly higher ranked Union squad. For Michigan fans it will be a nice gift for RPI to pick up the road win. GO ENGINEERS!
- Hopefully Minnesota is in the championship of the North Star College Cup and facing #5 Minnesota-Duluth. It is important for Minnesota to win at least one game this weekend and to do so they will need to beat a top 5 opponent or Bemidji State (#38) if they meet up in 3rd place game. Obviously Top 5 win(s) for a team Michigan holds a 2-0-0 record against would be a boost for the RPIs of B1G teams (most importantly Michigan).

Tuesday January 27

7:00 #16 Merrimack @ #34 Connecticut

any relevance??
yes. While the RPI difference between Michigan and Merrimack is small the record among common opponents leans Michigan's way which at worst would leave them in a 1-1 tie (1 point for RPI in Merrimack's favor and 1 point for common opponents in Michigan's favor) leaving it impossible for Merrimack to pass Michigan in the Pairwise rankings (they could be tied with Merrimack holding tiebreaker (RPI)). GO UCONN!!

3 things Michigan "needs"
- Penn State defending home ice
- Minnesota going no worse than 1-1
- Michigan 6 point sweep.

 

link to pairwise rankings http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/

We have a nice prior diary that is now a wiki, but due to the table format it is difficult to edit so let's do a post projecting the remaining spots of the class with a bit more detail in terms of serious candidates.  Aside from that wiki the MGo Depth Chart helps us project needs, and I did a diary last week on what positions have major needs for 2017 so we can reverse engineer 2015 'croots to fill those holes.

The question of the day is how many spots are truly open - MGo Depth chart says only 6, as long as both Glasgows and Kerridge are given scholarships.  I've read comments saying Sam Webb also says this is the #.   Of course some "gray" things can be done such as taking 8 commits and then assuming a few guys drop out after seeing the writing on the wall this spring.  Grayshirting is another option although more "controversial".   So I'll go 6 (floor and most likely) to 8 (ceiling and unlikely) spots. 

We'll look at it by position.  Please add any intel you may garner from various legit sources and I'll be happy to edit.  I am sure some more names will emerge in the coming days.

OFFENSE

TE

• Chris Clark - target #1.  NSD decision between UCLA and UM.  Gut feel says UM despite recent comments about neck and neck with UCLA.  UM offense focuses on TE, UCLA does not.  UM coaches have developed NFL TEs.  Heart was once with UM.
• Matt Snyder - current NEB commit set to visit this weekend.  Followed Riley from Oregon State to Nebraska.
• Jake Pickard - current WIS commit.
• (sorta) Ty Wheatley - seems to project more to DE but some feel at 260 lbs he can still be a TE as he grows in the coming years.

Projecting - Chris Clark

 

FB

• Reagan Williams - Stanford commit visiting this weekend.  With Kerridge and Houma both graduating post 2015 and Shallman the only type on roster to fill this roll this position is a need.  Looks like he will be visiting for 3 days so serious interest.  Can play close to home as he is from Ohio.  50/50 chance perhaps.

Projecting - Reagan Williams.  Harbaugh magic works this weekend.

 

RB

• Mike Weber - former UM commit who could see the competition crowding at OSU.  Yes UM will probably get a good back in 2016 as well to provide competition but the entire roster not named Ty Isaac clears out at RB post 2016.  Clearer path to playing time here, close to home, etc.
• [edit] John Kelly (also a potential DB) - Harbaugh is saying very nice things about him and crystall ballz trending our way but UM was late to this game.  MSU and TN seem to be the major competition.  Just committed to TN, UM will continue to pursue to NSD.

Projecting - Mike Weber or maybe whichever commits first of the 2 due to limited spots

 

QB

• [edit] Zach Gentry - NM product committed to Texas for a long time has some foggy smoke a raging inferno around him.
• McClane Carter - wasn't much interest in Carter nationally until Jim sniffed around which brought along some other interests.  Not sure if this is a scholarship type of guy or someone who you bring in for a year with a chance to earn a scholarship when more open up in year 2.

Projecting - tough one to figure.  Not sure if you give Carter a scholarship with a tiny class like this.  Maybe he comes with the promise of a 2016 scholarship.  Gentry is a long time UT commit, seems unlikely to flip in closing weeks.

 

WR

• Ryan Davis - super fun HS QB who might not have top flight speed but ridiculous change of direction and vision.  Will know better in the coming days if there is anything real here.  Would love this guy for punt returns and as a slot WR.
• [Edit] Austin Aaron - Cal commit, some noise early in Harbaugh chase with him ; not hearing much lately.

Projecting - none.

 

OL

• Nolan Ulizio - lightly ranked OL out of OH, committed to UConn getting some love from Michigan, Kentucky.   On paper seems like a no brainer to UM.  But if higher rated prospects at other positions are in play he might be told there is no room in the closing days of the signing period.  If this class was 16+ spots he'd probably be a close to sure yes.

Projecting - none only due to other commits taking his spot.  If those fall thru he seems likely.

 

DEFENSE

DB

• Damon Arnette - SC commit getting the most attention of a host of CB prospects.  Was in town this past weekend and was visited by Harbaugh, Durkin, and Mattison at home Wednesday.  His HS is a NFL factory so is a key bridge to get into that school.
• Chris Williamson - late riser on recruiting boards out of GA getting interest from UF, UM, NC, Cal and GA.  Was at NC last weekend, will be at UM this weekend, then UF the following weekend.
• Will Lockett - UCLA commit who will be in town this weekend
• Jarius Adams - Rutgers commit
• Iman Marshall - obviously a crown jewel but some believe to be a silent commit to USC which of course they deny.  Dad did not join him on trip.  Sounds like UM did a great job hosting but most likely too little too late and a 2nd/3rd place finish for his services.

Projecting - serious chance for 2 CBs even if we only have 2 slots.  Guessing Arnette is 1. Hopefully Williamson is impressed this weekend but still has a visit to UF next weekend.

 

DE

• Reuben Jones - NEB commit also getting the full court press, will be visiting this weekend. Seems very unlikely he remains at NEB; it looks like a Louisville (where he was last weekend) vs UM battle with MSU trying to poke their nose in there.
• Jalen Bates - ASU commit but not much noise here after some initial excitement. No crystal ballz to UM.
• KLS - sort of been a tease from afar thru the Hoke era, but a UCLA commit and it seems solid.
• Ty Wheatley (more likely here than TE) - dude could play a great game of poker.

Projecting - Reuben Jones if this weekend goes well but Louisville seems very much into it.  As with Arnette, Mattison Durkin and Harbaugh all visited in home Wednesday.  Wheatley is a tough one - this might be a case of a guy wanting to strike out on his own away from his dad.  I have zero inside info but for some reason this feels like a Treadwell McDowell situation.  If dad was not coaching I don't think UM would have any chance.

 

LB

• Roquan Smith - highly ranked GA LB is a major target for UM, who has a chance due to Durkin.  Most still think he is headed to GA but this past weekend seemd to do UM a lot of good.  The longer his recruiting process goes the better for UM's chances.

Projecting - none.

 

OFF THE BOARD / UNLIKELY

• Marcus Lewis CB - this seemed like a sure commit post summer BBQ.  But his final 3 is Kentucky, Miami (YTM), and WSU (?!).
• Nate Dalton CB - visited in home and at school by Harbaugh Tuesday but more interested in Liberty.  Or Bret B at Arkansas.
• Arrington Farrar S - a Stanford decommit who sounded like a natural fit but the last 5 crystal ballz have him headed to ND.
• Drew Lock QB -  Missouri commit looks like a no.
• Joe Burrow QB - OSU commit apparently told Jim no.
• Cordell Broadus WR - his dad wants him to go to USC, and other than some nice words before Harbaugh was hired about Harbaugh there doesn't seem to be much connection there.
• Auden Tate WR - committed to FSU last summer, not much smoke anymore. [edit:  Harbaugh apparently visited 1/22]
• David Moorman OL - exiled WIS commit seems to want to hear from UM; not sure if there is any smoke there.
• [edit][edit again] Joshua McMillon - Alabama commit out of TN who was once sort of high on Michigan during the Hoke period is set to visit.  He cancelled his visit.

 

My pulled out of rear end class then falls like this

1. TE Chris Clark OR non Clark TE
2. RB Mike Weber OR RB/ATH John Kelly
3. FB Reagan Williams
4. CB Damon Arnette
5. DE Reuben Jones
6. A second CB - too foggy to tell but not Marshall*
7. (if room) RB Mike Weber/ATH John Kelly  - edit: Zach Gentry (?)
8. (if room) OL Nolan Ulizio

*you probably hold this spot open until the moment LB Roquan Smith says I am going to Georgia.

I am not a subscriber to recruiting services so maybe some are saying DE/TE Ty Wheatley is a sure thing or close to it.  So I'd be wrong on that end if true.  Yesterday's offer to Jake Pickard - who is also a DE/TE combo makes me wonder.

 

 

When it rains, it pours (Upchurch / MGoBlog)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Table of Contents:

1. Week III Results
2. Post-Week III Standings
3. Team of the Week: Iowa
4. Player of the Week: D’Angelo Russell
5. Stat of the Week: Youth and Success
6. Various B1G Thoughts
7. Michigan’s Week That Was
8. IT’S TIME TO PANIC
9. Week IV Schedule
10. Some Personal News

1. Week III Results

There weren’t any true upsets this week, as the conference race is starting to take shape. Indiana staved off a challenge from Penn State and notched a nice road win against Illinois (without Rayvonte Rice); Illinois defeated Northwestern in Evanston, Purdue had a miraculous sequence at the end of regulation to win against PSU in Happy Valley, and Iowa failed to choke away a game against rival Minnesota in the Barn – those were the only road wins, none of which could really be considered upsets.

Maryland and Ohio State each had impressive home blowouts, over Michigan St. and Michigan, respectively. Other than that, there wasn’t much of note in terms of on-court results – everything more or less went as expected, to a large extent.

2. Post-Week III Big Ten Standings

Even though Maryland has one more win than Wisconsin (due to scheduling), the Badgers are still the class of the conference from an efficiency standpoint, even though they haven’t faced any legitimate challengers yet. The Terps are a weird team – they have the 9th-best offensive efficiency and best defensive efficiency in conference play.

From there, the race is still indistinct. Iowa finally shook off their late-game demons after squandering a lead at Minnesota, only to win on a late Jarrod Uthoff jumper, and held off Ohio State at home; Indiana still has a negative efficiency margin, remarkably – that blowout loss in East Lansing has overshadowed an otherwise decent start to Big Ten play; Michigan State’s schedule will start to get easier from here on out; Michigan is assuredly out of the race after Caris LeVert’s injury.

One other thing: Poor Damn Minnesota. They have a very disappointing 1-5 record, but the Gophers are only four points worse than their opponents over 100 possessions. I’m not sure if I’m crazy for thinking this, but I don’t think it’s over for them quite yet.

Click on image to enlarge. Data’s starting to fill in a little bit.

3. Team of the Week: Iowa

The moment when Iowa purged its late-game demons (source)

Though Maryland is currently atop the standings and Wisconsin – the clear frontrunner for the conference title – has an excellent efficiency margin, it might be time to seriously consider Iowa as a potential challenger. They’ve rightfully received plenty of attention for their chronic propensity to blow leads in the second half; they’re still one of the better teams in the country, when they’re at their best.

Minnesota erased a 17-point second-half deficit and took a two possession lead late in the game, only for some unfortunate missed front-ends and clutch baskets from Jarrod Uthoff to enable Iowa to steal the game late. It’s hard to assess whether Iowa’s late-game struggles over the past two seasons are an inherent problem – the analytically-inclined would be more likely to ascribe simple bad luck as the root cause, but at a certain point, it’s harder to explain away. Regardless, the win over Minnesota is a nice sign. Iowa’s still not exactly a team that exudes reliability, but a 4-1 start is undoubtedly positive.

After this week, they’ve swept Ohio State – remarkably, the Buckeyes are now two games out of first place after three weeks of conference play. Iowa’s win this past weekend showed off their capabilities when they’re playing particularly well: they attacked the basket well and got to the free throw line a lot (and converted there); they forced the Buckeyes into an uncharacteristic 16-42 (38%) from two-point range; they managed to overcome a herculean performance for D’Angelo Russell and a mini-run early in the second half that could have led to another backbreaking comeback against the Hawkeyes.

It’s still a little tough to trust Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have generally been playing good basketball this season – an insane barrage of threes from Michigan State notwithstanding. The Hawkeyes might be a step below Maryland and Wisconsin, but they should receive plenty of attention – they might be the best team behind those two.

Previously – Maryland (Week I), Rutgers (Week II)

[HIT THE JUMP for the rest of the article / lamentations on our bad luck]

This past Monday Brian, Seth and John U Bacon traveled to Cleveland to speak to the Northern Ohio Alumni Association about the coaching change and all things Harbaugh.  The event was a sell-out with over 120 people in attendance despite our fair city getting three inches of snow that day.  The MGoBlog team + John U were joined by ex -Michigan All American "Big Ed" Muransky and a surprise guest the immortal (and he is immortal if half the stories told about him that night were true) Team Captain Andy Cannavino.

Brian kicked off the program with an excellent summary of what we can expect from the team offensively next year (power, more power and hopelessly confused opponent safety's) as he showed us what Stanford did and why it worked so well.  John U Bacon gave his insight on the coaching change and they dynamics that led up to us getting Harbaugh and had the room laughing hysterically with the best Bo impersonation I've ever seen.  Ed Muransky & Andy Cannavino told "back in the day" stories that were classic Bo and compared the teams they played on (mucho successful) to last year's (not so much) and gave their insight as to why things turned out the way they did.  Seth did an excellent job moderating the panel and keeping both the presentations and questions from the audience moving along.

For me the biggest scoop of the evening was the general revelation on the part of Muransky and I think John U (sorry I don't have this down exactly - by then I was several Dogfish 60's into the evening) that Harbaugh actually DID have a verbal agreement to coach here back in 2011 but a series of screw-ups and missed opportunities led him to taking the 49ers job and that Hoke was somewhat of a desperation "oh shit.....now what do we do" hire.  

After the panel was done with their presentations the guys hung around and watched the first half of the National Championship game with everyone.  For those of you concerned about potential for problems with the Buckeye faithful - we were in a separate room quite apart from everyone else so all was peaceful on that front.

I know the group down here was thrilled with the presentations and turn-out and wants to make this an annual event - either at the beginning or end of the season.  Thanks again guys for making the trip!  And lastly I got a chance to meet several of my fellow posters (Magnum PI, Wave and others) which was really fun.   

Here are some pictures from the event:

 

Brian & the panel

 

Crowd shot

 

Me, Brian, Andy, Big Ed, John, Rick (President of Alumni Association), Leslie (Alumni Association executive who did a ton of work down here for this event amoung others) and Seth

 

Brian, John U, Me and my better half.  FWIW - if you ever get a chance to have a beer with John U Bacon you need to do it.  He is one of the nicest, funniest and all around good guys I've ever met.

 

Seth!  

 

Me and a guy who doesn't lurk OR post on the blog yet has this license plate.  Don't ask me why.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN. SERIOUSLY. THEY DID. (source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Weren’t any Big Ten basketball games last night, so I bumped this column to Tuesday.

Table of Contents

1. Week II Results
2. Post-Week II Big Ten Standings
3. Team of the Week: Rutgers
4. Player of the Week: Travis Trice
5. Stat of the Week: League-Wide Efficiency
6. Game Recap Graphics
7. Various Thoughts
8. Michigan’s Week That Was
9. Michigan’s Week Ahead
10. Week III Schedule

1. Week II Results

Home teams held serve most of the week – only Michigan (over Penn St.), Ohio St. (over Minnesota in overtime), Michigan St. (over Iowa), and Maryland (over Purdue) managed to get an elusive Big Ten road win and, to be fair, most of those came against lower-half teams. MSU’s win over Iowa was particularly impressive: after trailing 39-28 at halftime, they hit eight three-pointers to outscore the Hawkeyes 47-20 in the second stanza.

Ohio State played the two closest games of the week, both on the road: the Buckeyes managed to beat Minnesota in overtime by two points and lost to Indiana by three. Minnesota had another close loss – to Michigan – later in the week. Michigan State was perhaps the most impressive team of the week: they destroyed Indiana and eventually pulled away to win comfortably at Iowa.

More on Rutgers’s shocking upset over Wisconsin a little bit later.

2. Post-Week II Big Ten Standings

After two weeks, there are four teams tied for first place (and six tied for first place in the loss column). Maryland has the worst efficiency margin of the top four, but they have won two games on the road (against Michigan State and Purdue). Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan are all fairly comparable from an efficiency standpoint, though the Spartans probably have played the toughest schedule thus far.

The conference race is still far from any clarity. Wisconsin’s loss sets them back with the rest of the teams chasing and 10 of the league’s 14 teams are within a game of first place.

Click on image to enlarge

3. Team of the Week: Rutgers

Didn’t take long for Rutgers to ring up its first signature Big Ten win (source)

A few nights ago, I decided to brave the cold and head out to our favorite undergraduate library to play school for a little while. “The only Big Ten game on right now is Rutgers – Wisconsin,” I thought. “Even though Frank Kaminsky’s out, what could possibly happen?”

RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN.

With due apologies to Michigan State, who probably had the best week of any Big Ten team, Rutgers deserves mention for pulling what will probably stand as the biggest upset in Big Ten play this year – what very well may be the worst team in the league beating what’s likely the best. Yes, Kaminsky sat out of the game with concussion-like symptoms and yes, Traevon Jackson exited the game because of a leg injury that will keep him sidelined for a while.

Regardless of all that, it was an impressive showing for the Scarlet Knights: Kadeem Jack and Myles Mack each scored at least 20 points and, as a team, Rutgers posted a gaudy 1.20 points per possession. Despite the injuries to Kaminsky and Jackson, Wisconsin’s offense actually did alright (1.10 points per possession, at least a dozen points from each of Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker, and Bronson Koenig), but the Badgers’ heretofore excellent defense was exposed. Rutgers shot 20-35 (57%)  from two, so it wasn’t as if this were some anomalous barrage of three-pointers.

Besides Duke’s barrage of three-pointers earlier this season, this was Wisconsin’s worst defensive outing on the season. It was Rutgers’s best offensive game. Since I didn’t see the game, it’s hard to make any declarative statements, so here’s this solid recap from B5Q. As they note, Rutgers did trail by 12 at halftime, but 67% shooting (with four made threes) in the second half was enough to carry them to a win.

The homework that I did on that Sunday evening was due today and the professor bumped it back to Thursday… definitely could have waited on that in order to watch one of the most bizarre Big Ten games we’ll see this season.

Rutgers also lost to Nebraska by 16 on the road this past week, but that’s neither here nor there (I guess).

Previously: Maryland (Week I).

[After THE JUMP – the rest]

Now that "2014" is officially over, it is time to speculate about 2015.  Of course we already began that weeks ago.

Phil Steele has a list of all teams and how many starters they return in 2015.  It is not perfect; again let me say it is not perfect so comments saying it is not perfect are not useful.  But it's directionally useful.  Also some teams could face more departures in the next few weeks either via attrition, transfer, or early entry. 

Thought it would be fun to make reckless projections partly based on who has what returning.  Experience matters - well in most cases; not with Urban Meyer teams.  I've split this list into 3 groups:

1. All Power 5 conference teams with 15+ starters returning ~2/3rds of the starters
2. All Power 5 conference teams with 11 or less starters returning - 50% or less of the starters
3. Teams in between 12-14 who are of interest

I bolded any specific unit with 8+ starters returning as it should be a pretty good unit (in theory anyhow)  I've removed some guys like FSU and Oregon's QBs

EXPERIENCED TEAMS

Team	Conf	Total	Off	Def	Return QB?
Notre Dame	ACC*	19	9	10	Y?*
Tenn	SEC	18	10	8	Y
Vandy	SEC	18	9	9	Y
UCLA	P12	18	10	8	N
Cal	P12	18	9	9	Y
Ole Miss	SEC	17	9	8	N
North Carolina	ACC	17	10	7	Y
Baylor	B12	17	8	9	N
LSU	SEC	16	8	8	Y
Michigan	B10	16	9	7	N
Purdue	B10	16	9	7	Y
Colo	P12	16	7	9	Y
ASU	P12	16	7	9	N
Va Tech	ACC	16	8	8	Y
Wake Forest	ACC	16	9	7	Y
Texas Tech	B12	16	8	8	Y
Arkansas	SEC	15	8	7	Y
USC	P12	15	9	6	Y
WSU	P12	15	7	8	N
Pitt	ACC	15	9	6	Y
TCU	B12	15	9	6	Y

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

• Notre Dame should be quite solid next year if Malik Zaire pans out.
• It's time for Butch Jones to make a move and bring Tenn back to prominence.  They have been lost since we have been (2008). Year 3 (and 4) is when well above average coaches make big impacts for their teams; 2015 will be his year 3 and he brings back almost all his starters.  The SEC East is muddled with no power.
• UCLA needs to replace Hundley - but other than that they should be loaded.  Rosen looks like he will be competing with Neuhesial's kid.   I thought the Pac 12 South was the 2nd best division in the country last year, and next year the top of it will be even better.
• Cal can be a dark horse in the Pac 12 North; not to win it but to give the 2 top programs trouble and contend for 3rd place.  Sonny Dykes had an awful year 1 at Cal but things could be turning there as year 2 showed progress and they have a pretty fantastic offense with a stud QB.  There is some serious QBing going on in the Pac 12 right now, lost on most of the nation's audience who doesn't see many Pac 12 games.  Cal scores tons of points this year; problem is they gave up tons of points.
• Perhaps the last hurrah near term for Ole Miss as mock drafts for 2016 show a plethora of their players going early.  They will have multiple early entries from the "bag man" class of 2013 (Laquon Treadwell, Robert Nkemdiche, etc)  Bo Wallace goes, in comes a Clemson transfer who spent a year tearing it up at JUCO level.
• Baylor was young this year - the major loss is Bryce Petty but Seth Russell looked real good when Petty was down with injury this year.  Could be top 5 again.
• LSU should be the Fournette show.  Need to develop their QB (an annual refrain).  Defense should be loaded but loss of Chavis might be huge.
• Michigan's offense with Kevin Hogan would really look promising.  Defense will probably be flat as 2 top players leave in Ryan and Clark.
• Purdue is my "Cal" of the Big 10.  Not going to win the Big 10 West but for some reason I like the way they played this year in limited views (vs Notre Dame, MSU).  They played hard, seemed to buy into Hazell, and their offense can be fun.  I also like their young QB Appleby.   Can they pass Iowa / Northwestern types to contend for 3rd place next year in that division?  Maybe.
• Arizona State, like Ohio State, was supposed to be a 2015 story.  Until a late season dive they were in playoff contention.  Big believer in their coach (I know, I know - a mercenary) and OC.  Lose QB but they sometimes played better when his backup was in.  And a very young defense improved significantly as the year went by.  The games between USC, UCLA, and ASU should be barn burners and I think one of those 3 wins the entire Pac 12.
• Arkansas is my sleeper of the year.  I said in many posts in October this year they could win the Big 10 West and probably would be the 3rd best team in the Big 10 even when they were winless in conf.  They surged in November and looked awesome in their bowl.  Defense was awesome, run game was awesome, played Bama to 1 pt and Miss State to a last second drive.  If they get any QB play next year I could see them top 10.  No, seriously.  Loss of OC a question though.
• When researching USC's OL/offense I was struck at how great a year Cody Kessler had.  Fergodsakes, the Pac 12 is loaded with QBs.  70% completion, nearly 4k yards, 39 TD 5 INT - and you barely hear a peep about him out here in the East.  This is a very talented but young team lacking depth.  Loss of RB hurts as well as stud on DL.  If defense can do anything in 2015 they should contend for Pac 12.
• TCU will be top 5 entering the year, and perhaps top 3 in polls with Heisman candidate Boykins ready to roar.  Defense loses a bit but Patterson is a defensive coach and like Dantonio will have a D ready to go.  Their D looks worse statistically then they are as the offense transformed to the type that scores every 2 minutes so D is on the field way more than a Big 10 D, and opponents have way more drives.  The TCU v Baylor tilt should be for all the marbles again.

 

YOUNG TEAMS

Team	Conf	Total	Off	Def	Return QB?
Miss State	SEC	7	4	3	Y
Kansas	B12	8	4	4	Y
Maryland	B10	10	4	6	N
Miami	ACC	10	5	5	Y
Boston College	ACC	10	3	7	N
Georgia	SEC	11	6	5	N
Rutgers	B10	11	7	4	N
Oregon St	P12	11	9	2	N
Washington	P12	11	6	5	N
Syracuse	ACC	11	8	3	Y
Louisville	ACC	11	5	6	Y
Clemson	ACC	11	7	4	Y
KSU	B12	11	5	6	N

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

• Good luck with that Dan Mullen.  Miss State returns Prescott and uhh... a handful of other starters.  That is not a division to lose 2/3rds of your starters in.  I could see Miss State coming in last in the division.  Dan you should have begged Nebraska for the job when they did not get Bret.
• Maryland and Rutgers did decently their 1st year in the conference, partly because UM and PSU were junk.  When facing quality teams like OSU, MSU and Wisconsin they got punked.  And that was with quite experienced teams.  2015 looks like it is going to be rougher for these 2 programs.
• Miami (YTM) looks like it's going to be in year 82 of a rebuild.  Al Golden seems to be getting a pass due to sanctions on the prorgram but I imagine a 7-5 type of season, if that happens, has to raise the temperature of the seat.
• Georgia has a seemingly endless supply of RBs; maybe Nick Chubb and his supporting cast is enough in the down SEC East but it's a young squad without a returning QB.
• Oregon St - Andersen has his work cut out for him in year 1 with that defense and only 2! returning starters in a conference chock full of high octane offenses.  He and his newly swiped DC are both defensive oriented and will need to be. 
• Clemson will be interesting - they lost what many consider the real brains behind that team in Chad Morris (OC) and bring back a young team.
• I don't know what witchcraft Bill Snyder at KSU will employ but somehow he will have a solid team.  Seeing how prevalent JUCO players are in the Big 12, maybe a quarter of next year's team will be those type.

 

IN THE MIDDLE TEAMS

(WARNING: NSFW IMAGE!!!! TURN AWAY OR PERISH!!)

Team	Conf	Total	Off	Def	Return QB?
FSU	ACC	14	4	10	N
PSU	B10	14	8	6	Y
MSU	B10	14	6	8	Y
OSU	B10	14	7	7	N/A
Stanford	P12	14	10	4	Y?*
BYU	N/A	14	8	6	Y
Texas A&M	SEC	13	7	6	N
Florida	SEC	13	7	6	Y
South Carolina	SEC	13	5	8	N
Missouri	SEC	13	7	6	Y
Utah	P12	13	7	6	Y
Oklahoma	B12	13	7	6	Y
Auburn	SEC	12	4	8	N
Alabama	SEC	12	4	8	N
Wisconsin	B10	12	5	7	Y
Nebraska	B10	12	6	6	Y
Oregon	P12	12	7	5	N
Arizona	P12	12	7	5	Y
Texas	B12	12	7	5	Y

 

Conjecture based on flimsy evidence

• FSU brings back a loaded defense, but one that was strifed repeatedly by Oregon.  Not a tough conference however and talent alone should have it at (or near) the top.
• PSU's 2015 offense will probably be a lot like UM's 2014 except with a NFL 1st rounder at the helm.  Assuming not PTSD for Hack it should be a viable offense again with a less than awful OL.  Doesn't mean good OL, just less than awful.  Hack looked spectacular in the bowl game.  PSU's DC is not well known in these parts but did a wonderful job at Vandy and his first year at PSU so despite some big talent leaving, the D will be in good hands.
• MSU retained both Cook and Calhoun.  Their OL has been the unsung story of the past 2 years and it should remain excellent with potential 1st rounder Conklin at tackle, and an All American candidate at center.  Need to find a RB but bring in national recruit Larry Scott out of OH and young RBs can play righ away.  Defense the only weak spot will be the secondary with Calhoun's return.  Narduzzi loss might hurt but I doubt meaningfully.
• OSU will be preseason #1, maybe if Braxton Miller transfers, Cardale declares, and JT Barrett is injured we can watch the Jaylon Marshall QB era begin.  (he is a WR for those playing at home)  I think Steele is a bit off on returning starters - I had 1 or 2 more off memory when I did a depth chart analysis.
• Stanford returns 10 starters on offense but that offense really does not play to your strengths Kevin Hogan.  Come to Michigan.  Anderson will have a rebuild job with that defense which has been a Stanford stalwart since Vic Fangio showed up in 2010.  Another reason why I think the Pac 12 champion might come out of the South next year.
• BYU is here because we play them - they bring an experienced offense with a dual threat QB (that Harbaugh recruited to Stanford!).  Going to be a stern test.
• With Kenny Hill leaving Texas A&M some questions arise but Sumlin is good at 1 thing - offense.  Defense he sucks at - but Chavis arrival should help immediately. 
• Whole new staff at Florida with Michigan's old OC and Miss State's old DC.  Offense was 1 dimensional in 2014 costing Muschamp his job.  Need something out of their QB.
• One wonder if the ole ball coach is finally nearing the end of the line.  South Carolina finally struggled in 2014 after some very nice years and offense was the main thing it had going for them.  A lot of personnel losses on that side of the ball.
• No idea what poor Kyle Whittingham is going to be doing at Utah.  No OC, no DC, and a jerky AD.   But I assume he will find a way to field a quality team in time for our arrival.
• Nick Marshall leaves Auburn but Jeremy Johnson in a limited roll looked pretty damn sweet (yes I am jealous how certain other teams can just roll in any QB and do well).  Young offense but loaded with highly rated players, and Muschamp arrives to improve the defense.  Auburn will be a very interesting team next year.
• Bama gonna Bama.  A slew of 5 stars leaves, a slew of 5 stars arrive.  Non performing 5 stars are "guided" to pastures at the local JUCOs.
• Wisconsin gonna Wisconsin - even more so with Chryst there.  Their D was exposed by OSU but in retrospect that offense exposed everyone late in the year - other than PSU.  The Big 10 West looks quite garbage-y right now, so Wisconsin remains the top dog there until proven otherwise.  Still like their young DC a lot.
• Who knows what to expect with Nebraska - lost much of their higher end talent.  QB simply must improve; Armstrong can't afford to arm punt.  Mike Riley has his year cut out for him and I would not be surprised to see a significant step back in year 1, especially if Armstrong doesn't jump in progress.
• Oregon could take a step back - if Braxton Miller arrives it might just be a small step.  An adequate but not great defense loses a lot of players.
• Arizona was young offensively this year and 1 more year for their QB should help.  They return Scooooby on D but not a lot of other players.  Casteel has work to do; their division is loaded with big time offenses.
• Texas simply needs to focus on fixing that offense.  Strong spent year 1 smoking out a lot of bad - too comfortable - apples.  Year 2 has to begin the rebuild.  I expect the defense to arrive but not sure on that offense. 
• Oklahoma has to respond to the new challenges of TCU and Baylor.  Another average year and Stoops seat might go to at least lukewarm.  That's modern college football man.