things go poorly
the hiring of Petrino by WKU may have been shocking to many, but one part of the events planned for 8/31/13 may not come as much of a surprise
the other part, not so much
THE KNOWLEDGE revealed many coaching changes on these very pages in his previous post, but did not reveal this for a reason
because doing so would have also meant revealing these planned events - which the Hilltopper AD would have read and promptly backed away from the hire - thus causing the hire not to happen - which would have resulted in a fallacy
the one thing THE KNOWLEDGE cannot afford to allow is a temporal fallacy caused by THE KNOWLEDGE's revelations. since THE KNOWLEDGE understands the information about the future, it is usually assured that THE KNOWLEDGE will not allow the fallacy
now that the hiring has happened, the AD is no longer reading these very pages; hence, THE KNOWLEDGE can reveal the events
now, on to the events on 8/31/13
WKU has planned to introduce a new "tradition" for their pre-game festivities keeping in line with the background of their new coach
when the players and coaches are introduced, the head coach will now ride into the stadium in a motorbike
petrino plans to introduce his own twist for the opening day. a WKU cheerleader will be riding with him on the bike
this will throw the juiced up hilltopper fans into delirium
this is the not-surprising part
the unexpected part will be due to the opponent - Kentucky
the vast majority of the human population (including petrino) does not know that WKU beat Kentucky this year
hence, UK is seething and planning for great revenge next year
the UK mascot is deeply involved in the revenge plan
the details of the coach introduction plan has already been leaked to the mascot
thus, the mascot has planned to tackle petrino while he is riding the bike; resulting in another pet. accident
seeing yet another woman riding with petrino, his wife will seek compensation from WKU
a great circus is in the making
in the next post, THE KNOWLEDGE will discuss the bowl game against the 'cocks
there is no need to discuss the basketball game against Beilein's old team; because it will not be much of a game
(Click the image to view full size)
Poor, poor Bump. Well, not really. After all, he subjected himself to becoming a Sparty, so he knew what he was getting himself into. But, on the other hand, I'd like to think Bump was a Spartan his whole life, even before he was turned down by Michigan.
Tomorrow brings more Charlie.
THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Wednesday here at MGoBlog,
and at least every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to
check out Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.
going 12-0 is a often a recipe for this, but especially this year
With the pre-bowl season officially under wraps for 2012, it’s time for my annual review of teams whose record most greatly deviated from what it “should" have been.
To (attempt and fail to) avoid confusion, here is how I define Luck for this exercise.
What I Am Measuring
Luck can mean a lot of things but for this, I am comparing a team’s actual wins this year versus taking their opponent adjusted performance and re-simulating the season with the exact same schedule. Two teams who play a tightly contested game are roughly the same on that Saturday. Over a long horizon these wins and losses tend to even out but over a 12 game season there will always be teams whose final records don’t quite match how they played throughout the year.
What I Am Not Measuring
I am not looking at any preseason expectations. I am not looking at how each team did versus the recruits on their team. Those two would look at over-achieving teams of 2012 more than lucky. I am not going back to individual games or plays to look at if one or two games would have been different. I am also not looking at injuries on personnel changes throughout the year.
Think of this exercise as a sort of Pythagorean Wins for College Football. A lucky season is a great one to have for a fan, because no matter what the expected value is, the end result is all that matters in looking back. But like Pythagorean Wins, “Luck” is a great starting point for looking ahead. There are a lot of different ways to get to the same record. Last year Texas A&M had the most unlucky season in the country and was nearly 4 games below their performance. Kevin Sumlin did a great job this year and having the Heisman Trophy winner certainly helped, but Sumlin’s team was in a much better position than their prior year’s record would have indicated.
Teams with great records are rarely unlucky and vice versa. The formula is [Actual Wins] – [Simulated Wins]. If you win most all of your actual games there is very little room for your simulated wins to be higher. It’s more a factor of math than destiny.
Coach Hoke’s alma mater was 2012’s luckiest team. Ball State was simulated to win 6.4 games this year but pulled out a 9-3 record. Beyond that, three of the four teams following Ball State are of high interest to Wolverine fans.
|Team||Actual Wins||Simulated Wins|
Michigan’s two biggest rivals and bowl opponent all crack the top 5. As noted above, Ohio St and Notre Dame were easy candidates for this list with perfect seasons, but their perfect seasons were the luckiest undefeated seasons in the seven years I have been measuring the luck factor, and by a considerable margin.
Michigan ended the season slightly lucky with 8 wins versus an expected 7.6 based on their total season performance.
Of the teams that finished the year with 2 or fewer losses, Florida State is the only team to finished at least 0.5 games unlucky, thanks to their upset to NC State and an otherwise weak ACC schedule. Their loss to the Wolfpack was the 7th most unlikely outcome of the season based on the simulation but the most likely outcome based on Seminole history. Of the Top 10 biggest upsets looking back, five happened in Week 1 and all by road teams (Youngstown over Pitt, McNeese St over Middle Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin over Memphis, Ohio over Penn St and Iowa over Northern Illinois). Only three of the top 10 happened after the second week of the season with
UMass topping Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic over Western Kentucky joined the NC St upset. The Ohio-Penn St game was an interesting one because people acted like it was at the beginning of the season even though it really wasn’t at the time. By the end of the season Ohio had tailspinned and Penn St turned out to be a much better team.
The unlucky list features some of the same teams from the biggest upsets above
|Team||Actual Wins||Simulated Wins|
Michigan State was a few spots down, as they finished nearly 2 games below their simulated totals, falling on the wrong side a few too many 16-13 totals.
Is This Luck Repeatable?
Almost certainly not. The scatter plot of current year versus prior year luck:
There are a lot of teams in each of those quadrants, each season is its own animal. Notre Dame’s was nearly 2 games above simulated this year but was –5.5 over the last three. Those who remember Northwestern as the team continually defying expectations. The Wildcats continued this year and are one of only two teams (Rice) who have had above average luck for all seven years. With Wake Forest right behind them I began started to draft a “smart schools are more lucky” section until I looked at the rest of the all-time top 10 and saw Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn and Ball State all on the list.
When you look at the spread of lucky years by
Count of teams by number of lucky seasons from 2006-2012
The twin peaks could mean there is a lucky and unlucky group, each normally distributed. It could also just a be bump in the data or it could be part of the fact that wins by program is somewhat consistent and luck is slanted if you are at one end of the spectrum. My biggest conclusion is that most of it is truly luck but that there is the possibility that teams like Northwestern or coaches like Les Miles have a true ability to consistently win more than they should but also that statistically, teams like that are bound to turn up even if its truly random.
“KEEPING THE DRIVE ALIVE”
A slow time on the board is a good time to post some summary information on how successful the Big Ten was as a conference in converting third and fourth downs and to discuss the relative success of individual teams as well.
Overall, the Big Ten lined up for third down 2,139 times and converted 856 of those downs for a conference success rate of 40.02%. The best team was actually Michigan, converting 51.3% of its third downs, followed by Northwestern and Penn State at 45.2% and 43.08% respectively. The worst teams in the conference include, in no particular order, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa, all of them sitting in the 34% to 36% range.
The conference went for it on 4thdown 205 times this season and managed to get a fresh set of down on 111 of these occasions, making for an overall success rate of 54.15% for the Big Ten. Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin were the most successful teams in this regard, converting well over half of their 4thdown attempts. Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois were the least successful teams on 4thdown, with Iowa attempting to convert twenty times and only making it on seven attempts.
The average Big Ten team attempted 178 conversions on third down and was successful 71 times. On fourth down, the average team went for it 17 times and converted 9 of them. The median values were similar actually, indicating 178 attempts to 75 successes on third down, and 15 attempts to 7 successes on fourth down.
How good was the Big Ten then in this regard? It might be worth mentioning that, if the conference were in fact a team, it would have bested Southern Methodist for a solid 62ndplace in the rankings among Division I programs (point of trivia – the worst individual team at converting third down was Boston College at 28%). On fourth down, the “conference as a team” fared somewhat better, as in this scenario, we would be in 53rdplace, slightly better than Air Force (by about 0.1%).
Below are links to the tables for third and fourth down conversions for the season as well as relative success among individual conference members.
When it comes to looking at conference statistics sometimes...
having already equalled their 2011-2012 win total at 2-8…and…well…they aren’t good at basketball.
6-4 freshman shooting guard Jordan Reed paces the bearcats with 18 points per game. He also paces them with 10 rebounds, shooting 46% from the field. Truth be told, stop him and you’ve beaten Binghamton.
6ft senior point guard Jimmy Gray leads the team in assists with 4/game, and is second in scoring at 10 points per game, shooting 33% from the field and 27% from deep(8 attempts/game).
6-1 junior guard Rayner Moquete chips in with 7 points shooting 36% from the field and 34% from deep(4 attempts/game).
6-1 junior guard KJ Brown contributes 5 points on 30% shooting, 21% from deep(2 attempts/game).
6-7 senior forward Taylor Johnston leads the frontcourt scoring an efficient 7 points/game and pulls down 4 boards shooting 54% from the field and a scorching 54% from deep(3 attempts/game).
6-8 junior forward Ronald Brown is also a major contributor in the post, adding 8 points and 5 boards, shooting 50% from the field.
6-8 junior forward Alex Ogundadegbe( Oh gun Dad! Egg be! )
(M R Piders M R. C D E D B D I’s.) will drop 4 points and 3 rebounds on you in a heartbeat…or in a game, shooting 45%, but whatevs.
That’s basically the rotation.
Let’s take a look at their last 5 games. Binghamton lost to Bryant 78-56. They were outrebounded by 9 and outshot by 12%. Monmouth beat them 77-65 by hitting on 10% more of their attempts. Mt. St. Mary’s squeaked out a 71-70 win when Binghamton lost the turnover battle by 12(yeah, Binghamton turns over the ball a lot…not good at basketball remains the general theme). Binghamton lost to Pennsylvania 65-54 despite grabbing 10 more boards than the quakers. Penn went 10-25 from deep(40%).
Binghamton beat Marywood of the Colonial States Athletic Conference 76-51, outrebounding them by 20 and outshooting the pacers by 14%.
So what does this mean for Michigan? Well...Binghamton is going to turn over the ball...a lot. Michigan is going to outrebound Binghamton...but not by a ton. Michigan is going to outshoot Binghamton by about 15%.
I've got Michigan 95-55. This should not be a challenge.
This week's rankings include Ohio State passing Illinois and a good deal of movement in the bottom half of the big board. Changes since the last rankings:
12-2-12: Indiana picks up T.J. Simmons.
12-4-12: Illinois picks up Kyle Kragen.
12-5-12: Minnesota picks up Nate Andrews.
12-6-12: Danny Mattingly decommits from Notre Dame. Indiana picks up Marcus Oliver.
12-7-12: Ohio State picks up Gareon Conley. Nebraska picks up Antoine Miles.
12-8-12: Michigan State picks up Michael Geiger.
12-9-12: Notre Dame picks up Greg Bryant. Ohio State picks up Donovan Munger. Iowa picks up Damond Powell. Penn State picks up Zayd Issah, Anthony Smith, and Jonathan Walton.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^||POINTS*|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
*The product of number of Commits and Average Average
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.