Diaries

In the wake of an index card being used to make sure that there wasn't a first down last night:

along with our multitude of complaints about B1G refs (JT was short), may people have come out and said "Why can't they just put a chip in the football!"

Well, as a Michigan educated mechanical engineer, let me tell you: they could, but it's not easy and it's not cheap.

The Ball

The first problem is that there can be absolutely no changes to the football itself. This is less of an issue in college than the NFL, where different universities have different sponsors and different footballs. Nike, Adidas, etc. Each might be slightly different. The NFL has one football (unless you're the Pats, ZING!) and it's gotta stay the same. In order to "track" the football, at a minimum you'd need to add sensors and power supplies. And those can't change the weight of the ball or the balance or the flight. The NBA tried to change their basketball a few years ago (to a sythetic leather at the urging of PETA and others) and it lasted less than 1 season because the players didn't like that it was different.

Good luck changing a football, as there aren't 32 people talented enough to throw them already.

Let's say that a team is able to create a weightless sensor/power supply that can also withstand all the batting around that happens to a football, a football is not a simple shape. The sensor must know where the ball is in a 3D space. Think about someone stretching the ball out forward, vs a runner who has it sideways. If the tip of the ball breaks the plane, TD. If the tip is sideline to sideline, it might not cross the line to gain.  The sensor will have to know where in the ball it is, and the ball's orientation. Again, not simple. The sensors won't be able to move even when the ball is kicked, pitched, tackled, etc.

I think this may be do-able. Put tiny sensors in each end of the football along a "spine" that goes through the center of the ball with its power supply. An inflated ball weighs just less than a pound, so there isn't much weight to work with, but it's not 100% impossible. You'd need sensors that weigh next to nothing and power supplies that fit that description as well.

The Field

On the field you'd need some kind of equipment that can precisely spot the ball and its position on the field. These sensors can't be interrupted by people, can't be line-of-sight, can't have weather issues, and can't obstruct anyone's views. They can't be in the way of players on the bench substituting, and they need to know  when the runner is "down". I have no idea how the runner being down fits into this, because that's discretionary. A system could cover things like forward progress, but you'd still be relying on a referee or a replay to show when a runner's knee touches. Which gets us back to the same problem...

We're an educated bunch here at MGoBlog, anyone have any other ideas?

Yeah, I’ll take one of those! (Bryan Fuller)

OFFENSE

· Analysis: So, this was similar to and actually better than last night, but the pucks didn’t go into the net. It’s also more complicated than that. Michigan’s problem is that they have basically 1.5 scoring lines. Last night, Calderone netted a hat trick. Tonight, the DMC line didn’t score and neither did Michigan. Remember the CCM line? They had an additional 1.5 competent lines behind them. That is not the case this year. Michigan’s offense will seemingly go as their top line does. Also, MSU’s defense did a nice job of generally keeping Michigan from really great scoring chances all around.

[After THE JUMP: stats and discussion of defense, special teams, goaltending, and odd-man rushes. Also, a picture of a self-inflicted wedgie]

Some of Tony Calderone’s fine work (Bill Rapai)

OFFENSE

Analysis: Michigan overpowered an under-talented MSU team, tonight. This was by no means a bombs-away performance, but they controlled the puck against a team that they should dominate. By the third period, Michigan was getting into the slot with ease. Tony Calderone had a day, netting a hat trick. The offense was driven, again, primarily by the top DMC line. This was a desired and expected result. Doing the same tomorrow night will be a good sign.

[After THE JUMP: Full House. On the stat sheet. Look, it's a thing in hockey stats, okay?]

Previously:

November 2007

December 1 - Saturday

Well the month starts with an ESPN Gameday report from Kirk Herbsteit that Les Miles to Michigan with Jon Tenuta as DC is official. The rest of the month must be all about finalizing the details, right?

Wait...what? Miles has signed a contract...extension with LSU.

Yep, it’s over. Press conferences are scheduled.

Angelique was on ESPN News to say it’s over. Bill Martin didn’t talk with Miles’ agent that morning.

Press conference video. Maybe it’s not over?

More statements from Miles, these unequivocal. It’s over.

December 3 - Monday

So what happened? Best guess is that LSU gave Miles an ultimatum, but he had not gotten any assurance from Martin. Once Herbstreit broke the “Miles to Michigan” news, Miles had to commit one way or another. If that hadn’t happened so quickly, he might have had time to use his contract extension with LSU as leverage.

Schiano has not been contacted! But ‘M’ has reportedly shown interest in Brady Hoke. This can’t be believed though.

December 4 - Tuesday

Maybe Miles will be in play after the national championship game? Maybe Ron English will have a one year internship as head coach? Brian doesn’t believe that Martin was unavailable on Saturday because he was sailing. That’s too far fetched.

So Miles’ contract extension hasn’t been signed yet, so maybe there’s a sliver of a chance?

Unverified Voracity Writes Open Letters. At least encourages open letters to Martin. The fires are stoked by a letter from a former player regarding the Miles debacle. Also, no one has a clue about who will be considered next.

Profiles in Heroism: Paul Johnson.

Kirk Ferentz is the leading candidate...again.

December 5 - Wednesday

So the rumor that Martin was sailing over the weekend has been moved to “likely”.

If Martin was a president, he would be William Henry Harrison. If he was a world-changing invention, he would be a Segway. If he was a football coach, he would be Charlie Weis.

Tom Dienhart says Brady Hoke is the leading candidate, so that’s obviously wrong.

Blogpoll will be delayed for technical reasons.

Profiles in Heroism: Kirk Ferentz.

Ferentz would not be a disaster of a hire, but he would be a disappointing one. He's no more moral than dozens of coaches across the country. He's increasingly incapable of keeping the kids he recruits under control. He lost to Iowa State and Western Michigan this year. He represents the closest thing to an extension of the Carr era available out there

And now the sailing rumor has been moved to confirmed.

December 6 - Thursday

Martin says he’s following a process, and he’s confident in the direct it’s going.

For Martin to simultaneously go "well, I never!" when LSU made their dastardly offer before the agreed-upon speaking-time and claim he's being "very aggressive" is ridiculous. It's ludicrously ridiculous and many other words that end in "ous" and generally indicate something improbable.

Profiles in Heroism: Greg Schiano.

December 7 - Friday

Schiano met with Martin in New York, was basically offered, and...turned the job down.

Brian is bothered that it has come to this.

So now what? Schiano's out, Ferentz is out twice, Miles is (probably) out, and Brian Kelly is allergic to cats and Carr is demanding his pet Siamese Wuffles be appointed offensive coordinator. Or something. Jeff Tedford would probably say "thanks, but no" and Michigan is looking at... who? Brady Hoke or an interim Ron English? Someone shoot me. If it comes down to that, there's one clear choice: make a run at Miles. If that requires firing Martin, then fire Martin.

Profiles in Heroism: Chris Peterson.

Broken link to something in this post, but Brian says that if you’ve been living under a rock, stay there.

Blogpoll Week 16.

Sean Payton is a candidate? No, that’s already shot down.  

Recap of Miles interview with Dan Patrick.

December 10 - Monday

Well, Miles is in play again. Apparently, Mary Sue Coleman has gotten involved, and there is an offer on the table. The anti-Miles faction is pushing Brady Hoke.

Unverified Voracity Has Flashbacks because App St. is playing winged helmets (Delaware) in the national championship game. Also, John Wienke is looking around at other schools.

Steve Sarkisian gets mentioned, and to Brian’s delight, Jeff Tedford.

Profiles in Cronyism: Brady Hoke. There are a lot of different emotions going on in the comments that have been left over the years.

Overall Attractiveness: Awful. Awful, awful, awful. The worst possible candidate. The mere idea this guy -- who's never even been a coordinator anywhere and has his MAC team performing at a level well below the program's historical baseline -- could get the job is infuriating. Only at Michigan could this happen, and if it does I guarantee you that Bo is going to haunt the mofo that signs the contract.

December 11 - Tuesday

Despite renewed interest between ‘M’ and Miles, the LSU AD is saying no way; who would want move out of the south?

Terry Foster says Marvin Lewis is a candidate which is obviously false. This is partly because he is expected to be fired before the end of the season.

And again, Miles is no longer a candidate.

An imagined phone conversation between Miles, Martin, and Coleman.

December 12 - Wednesday

Again, what is going on? Also, Jim Grobe is a hot new rumor.

I would like to believe in the magic of smokescreens, but when a phone call with Les Miles, Mary Sue Coleman, and Bill Martin that should remain secret hits WTKA, then here, then the Free Press the problem with the search is not its obscurity but its transparency. And it's transparent that Michigan is flailing, divided amongst itself, and rapidly running out of plausible options.

December 13 - Thursday

Adrift. Here is a good recap of where things stand:

• Carr retires, claiming the timing of said retirement has nothing to do with helping or harming anyone's chances at the job.

•  

• Kirk Ferentz is the first hot candidate. I still believe if he was willing to accept a paycut (and, possibly, Carrassistantpalooza) he'd be the coach and the search would have been brief. A few days after Carr retires, he's out again.

•  

• Les Miles is now a "done deal" for about a week.

•  

• ESPN and Kirk Herbsreit create the brief Miles-Tenuta era. Flowers sprout across the state. Wolves stop their eternal thirst for deer meat and sit down to have a nice cup of tea with representatives of the local ungulate population. GM announces six plant openings. Honda declares bankruptcy.

•  

• Sailboat Bill Martin sails on sailboat as Frantic Telephoning Agent Guy frantically telephones Sailboat Bill.

•  

• Miles announces he's staying at LSU. Flowers die. Honda buys ad space on Jennifer Granholm's forehead, tatoos "Suck It, America" on said forehead, crushes auto industry wholesale. Deer viscera everywhere.

•  

• New hot candidate: Kirk Ferentz. That dies again.

•  

• Actual new hot candidate: Greg Schiano, who reportedly turns down a contract offer comparable to the one he turned down from Miami last year. Reports that Schiano had tentatively accepted an offer before reversing course twist the knife.

•  

• Another new old hot candidate: Miles, who has a conference call with Mary Sue Coleman and Martin.

•  

• Miles shoots down hopes once more with a tersely-worded press release. Off camera, Skip Bertman holds a gun to his wife's head, Jack Bauer-style. Flowers die again.

•  

• Toyota tatoos something unspeakable on Granholm's butt. Wolves start eating people.

Andy Moeller got a DUI.

Next rumor up: Delaware head coach KC Keeler. This went so far that he had to deny reports. If anyone is interested, he is 44-11 over the last four seasons at Sam Houston St.

December 14 - Friday

And in the midst of all this, Brian decided it was a good time to switch things up and start using WordPress.

Mailbag covers Brian’s thoughts on Jim Harbaugh, Jim Grobe, and how he would have handled things if he were in charge.

Next rumor up: Rich Rodriguez. Apparently, Coleman and Martin were in Toledo negotiating with Rodriguez.

December 15 - Saturday

Rodriguez has legs.

What a weird guy to come up: Rodriguez was a WVU player under Don Nehlen, a name that may not ring bells among Michigan fans of my age or younger. Nehlen, however, was a Schembechler assistant and retains ties to the program. So he's got a tenuous connection. However: Pac Man Jones, Chris Henry, etc. If there's a guy with obvious skeletons in the closet, it's Rodriguez, who's walked a fine line with guys of questionable character at WVU.

Brian goes to WVU Scout board to find a poster who had reliable information during the Rodriguez-to-Bama deal the previous year and the Beilein hire. This guy is fed up with Rodriguez and sounds like he expects him to be gone.

Rodriguez and his agent are refusing to talk or giving unlikely excuses. WVU posters are now saying he is slightly leaning toward staying.

Now the Scout insider is saying that Rodriguez is staying.

December 16 - Sunday

John Wienke has decommitted and will likely go to Iowa.

And now message boards have fully reversed course.

The rest of the board is either getting slammed with trolls or stuff is leaking out all over the place. Bob Lichtenfels at Scout is also reporting Rodriguez to Michigan based on a phone call from OMG shirtless mobile QB recruit Terrelle Pryor. I think this might be done.

Rodriguez to Michigan is official. He met with the WVU team earlier in the day.

December 17 - Monday

WVU fans camped out at the airport and got a few (terrible) pictures of the Rodriguez family leaving. Most importantly, the pictures included Calvin Magee and Tony Gibson, obviously indicating that they will be joining Rodriguez in Ann Arbor.

More big staff news as a recruit shares that Mike Barwis will also be coming to Michigan.

Unverified Butter Voracity Time. This post hasn’t aged well with comments on Rodrigues being “Bo’s last gift to the program”, he will adapt to Ryan Mallett, and he will be here for more than three years.

Profiles in Heroism: Rich Rodriguez.

Overall Attractiveness: There were three, maybe four, obvious A-list candidates who seemed feasible going into the year: Miles, Tedford, Rodriguez, and possibly Schiano. After flailing about for a solid month, they locked down an A-list candidate. There are no complaints from this sector. There is an apology pending.

Rodriguez is everything a Michigan fan could want in a hire; to get him after the month-long disappointment train that was the coaching search is manna from heaven.

Along with Magee and Gibson, Rodriguez also wants to retain Jeff Casteel, Bruce Tall, and Bill Stewart.

Buy shirts!

December 18 - Tuesday

Unverified Voracity Replaces Signs. Apparently, Rodriguez would have stayed at WVU if certain demands were met. These were fairly reasonable, but the athletic department did not agree.

Recruiting recap. The class has been kept together very well; however, all uncommitted prospects have faded away. The biggest news is Terrelle Pryor.

When Rodriguez left for Michigan, Pryor might have been the first guy to know. Pryor called up Bob Lichtenfels, told him the news, and said "put Michigan on my list." Some low-level internet buzz suggests he's not just interested, but likely to commit.

Basketball Recruiting. MI F Jordan Morgan has committed. It is also likely that SG Laval Lucas-Perry will transfer from Arizona.

December 19 - Wednesday

Apparently, there were rumors on WVU boards that Rodriguez would still come back. These have been put to rest with his immediate firing (his resignation was effective January 3).

Brian’s behind on his day.

K’len Morris is transferring from the basketball team.  

Brian culls other blogs for Rodriguez reaction. It’s a lot of sour grapes, which is retrospect sound sadly prophetic.

December 20 - Thursday

Brian gives an introspective, self-depreciating post as an apology and recap of the events of the last month.

A question: was this blog useful at all during the coaching search?

The traffic numbers indicate that it was at least interesting, but in the end the stuff on this blog couldn't have been more wrong. There was a ten minute window during which

• MGoBlog had a post in which it noted the WVU message boards had done a sudden 180, and

• said 180 had not reached the mainstream media.

If you managed to visit the blog in this brief window you had accurate insight into Michigan's next coach you could not have gotten elsewhere. The cost was a nonstop avalanche of stuff that induced panic, made Bill Martin a sailboat pariah, and made everyone depressed for the better part of a month.

Then, bam: Rodriguez! Don't we all look foolish. Most especially me.

 December 21 - Friday

To everyone’s surprised, Rodriguez has fired all current assistant coaches. Maybe Steve Stripling will be retained.

Brian’s Christmas and New Year schedule.

A “stocking stuffer” post of various Michigan college football articles. Also, Varsity Blue reports that Fred Jackson will be retained.

December 27 - Thursday

Content for the rest of the month will be delayed by a day.

December 29 - Saturday

UFR: Offense vs. OSU.

What does it mean for Florida?

If Henne is not healthy we have no chance. If he playing at his apex we have a shot. Our running game is uncreative and full of fail and, like everything Mike Debord does, makes babies cry. We should use our killer wideouts and attack the Florida secondary, the Gators' weak point, but we might have to do so with the burned out husk of Henne or Mallett's suck festival.

December 30 - Sunday

UFR: Defense vs. OSU. Big day from Tim Jamieson with a +7.

December 31 - Monday

Florida Preview.

Loss will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

Win will cause me to... UFR WVU games.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

We lose bad. This team has been disjointed and disinterested most of the year, and now they know they're in this bowl they don't deserve to be in against a team that's probably a lot better than them; the coaching staff is getting replaced wholesale, to boot.

And we're playing some sort of awful hybrid Michigan kryptonite, and it's a 100% road game, and it appears that one or both of Hart/Henne will not be 100%. Woo! Shoot me.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• 4 Michigan fans attend.

• They're pretty pissed off.

• Florida, 35-17.

Michigan's 2017 football season will be remembered primarily for the health and performance of its quarterbacks.  Two long term injuries and one ineffective player contributed to a season in which which we find ourselves asking "What if?".   It is not hard to see, with just a little more luck, three more wins and a trip to the B1G championship and the College Football Playoffs within reach.  As always, when we look to the future we consider the past.  How well have Michigan's quarterbacks historically held up throughout the 12+ game season?
 

• 2015 against Utah: Newly-arrived transfer Jake Rudock was clearly not on the same page with his wide receivers, which contributed to 3 INTs (one returned for a TD) in a game decided by one touchdown.
• 2015 against Michigan State: In which MSU's victory came via a literal 1-in-a-1000 occurrence on the last play of the game.
• One might also include 2015 against Ohio State. Technically starter Rudock was injured in the second half of the game, but the score was well out of hand by the time the injury occurred. We are tending to blame DJ Durkin for spending too much time on his resume and not enough on his game planning.

Pessimism is realism. This is the mantra. We aren't being hyperbolic Chicken Littles, screaming the sky is falling, we are simply recognizing what the ostriches will not. I am a natural pessimist. This thing that happens is the worst thing and of course it happened, because why wouldn't it? In the wake of another depressing loss to the Buckeyes (wouldn't it have been easier, emotionally, to just get the doors blown off, false hope is the worst thing, etc.), the 15th in 17th years, I sought solace in numbers. Sure, numbers are open to interpretation, but they also don't lie.

Michigan's competition (as a football program) lies in Columbus, East Lansing, and State College. This is how the program is judged. Below, is a comparison in three parts. The first examines record, i.e. wins and losses, i.e. what we care about. The second examines yardage and margin of victory, i.e., how badly have you beaten teams and how badly have they beaten you. The third looks at advanced stats, created by people much smarter than I, to measure exactly how good a team is.

AREA 1: RECORD

POINT OF EMPHASIS #1: HARBAUGH VS. RIVALS AND TOP 10 TEAMS

The W/L complaints about Harbaugh start and end here. Yes, he's five games worse than Urban in 3 years, but that's essentially a game or two every year. Meyer won the title the year before Harbaugh got there. Michigan went 5-7. Urban had a bit of a head start. This is a concerning trend, however. That 3-6 includes 1-5 against Michigan's two actual rivals. What's the cause? I'd like to say Michigan has been good, not great, but when we get to parts 2 and 3, that doesn't entirely seem to be the case. Urban has been slightly better against team that finish in the Top 10, but Harbaugh has basically the same record as Dantonio and Franklin over the past 3 years. A lot of voices will be silenced if Michigan wins the "big games".

POINT OF EMPHASIS #2: MICHIGAN STATE WAS BAD LAST YEAR

This obviously skews Dantonio's numbers, but it shows the volatility in MSU's success (something that will bear out in parts 2 and 3). They weren't 3-9 bad last year, but they weren't 12-2 good in 2015, either. Would we trade a CFP appearance for a 3-9 last year? I'm not so sure I would, especially if it ended in a destruction at the hands of Alabama (I have bad memories of Jerry World in 2012).

POINT OF EMPHASIS #3: HOLY CRAP, JAMES FRANKLIN'S HOME VS. ROAD SPLITS

Before I dug into the numbers, I had no idea that Franklin was Nick Saban at home and Brady Hoke on the road. Outside of the 1 point loss this year against the Buckeyes, those losses have either been blowouts or against average teams.

AREA 2: YARDAGE AND MARGIN OF VICTORY

POINT OF EMPHASIS #1: WHAT DOES W/L AT THE END MEAN?

Wins are how many games your team was outgained but you still won. Losses are the reverse. How many games did you lose when you outgained the opponent?

POINT OF EMPHASIS #2: HARBAUGH VS DANTONIO IN CLOSE GAMES

I defined games decided by 1 score or less as games that finished within 8 points. Look at Michigan State's record in the past three years. NFL guys who look at these sorts of numbers love to mention regression to the mean. Normally, you can expect teams to finish around .500 in these coin flip games. Somehow, Dantonio has connived his way to a 12-5 record. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh has been somewhat snakebitten. The 4 wins were two OT games against Indiana, the game against Minnesota, and last year's 7 point win against Wisconsin in which they nearly tripled the Badgers yardage. The 6 losses include the dropped punt, two 1 point losses last year, the travesty in Columbus and this year's monsoon game. At some point, you have to believe this will turn around.

POINT OF EMPHASIS #3: MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE DOMINATE WEAKER FOES

Yardage totals aren't perfect, but they can be a good barometer for how much a team controls a game. Michigan and Ohio State have bludgeoned lesser opponents (usually a sign of dominant, as opposed to good, teams). Michigan has twice as many games where they've decimated teams as Penn State and four times as many as Sparty in the past 3 years. That speaks well to the talent level at Michigan right now (those games have been more prevalent the past two years).

POINT OF EMPHASIS #4: JAMES FRANKLIN IS SOMEWHAT LUCKY AS WELL

He's 8-5 in 1 score games which isn't too far above the norm, but Penn State has won 5 games where they've gotten outgained the past 3 years. I didn't take a look at TO data, but I have to imagine that plays a factor. That said, I think a few of these games were of the "Penn State's offense gets a short field and scores when Barkley breaks 8 tackles and then their defense bends, but doesn't break" variety.

AREA 3: S&P & RECRUITING

POINT OF EMPHASIS #1: FIX THE OFFENSE

The second valid complaint against Harbaugh is that the offense hasn't improved since he's been here, in fact, it got significantly worse this year. Brian has aptly pointed out that ultimately these issues stem from poor O-Line play and the issues at QB. Next year will be extremely important from an appearance standpoint. Michigan will have 3 highly ranked OL in the interior, a returning highly ranked QB, and all their weapons back. They just have to figure out the tackle situation.

POINT OF EMPHASIS #2: OHIO STATE HAS THE BEST PLAYERS

Stars matter. Look at those damn class rankings. If we're all wondering what happened on Saturday, look no further. Urban's backup QB is a high 4-star. They had 5-star Jeffrey Okudah making special teams tackles (and committing interference on a PR). Michigan's QB was a generic 3-star transfer from the American. It's going to be an uphill battle against these guys for the forseeable future.

POINT OF EMPHASIS #3: JAMES FRANKLIN OWES JOE MOORHEAD A BEER

Franklin better hope that Moorhead sticks around and somehow finds a way to clone Saquan Barkley. I'm not 100% sure that if Moorhead leaves and Miles Sanders isn't the aforementioned clone, that Penn State doesn't struggle next year. Their O-Line still isn't up to par and they still rely on a lot of jump balls to succeed.

POINT OF EMPHASIS #4: LET'S SEE HOW FAR DISRESPEKT TAKES YOU

Michigan State had a rough close to 2017 in the recruiting world and 2018 hasn't started a ton better. It's easy to say that Dantonio has molded these diamonds in the rough before, but eventually they are going to miss on some of these guys and have trouble plugging gaps.

If you want a TL;DR version, it's this:

Harbaugh is about even with his peers, though definitely hasn't gotten Michigan to Ohio State's level just yet. The criticism about Michigan not winning big games is certainly justified given the record against MSU and OSU and against Top 10 opponents. The trend on offense is worrisome, but the hope is steady QB play and a developing O-Line helps turn that around. James Franklin and Mark Dinatnonio have been more lucky than good. Urban Meyer has all the best players and that's why he wins a lot of games (but, he's a fine coach as well).