[WARNING, THIS DIARY HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE GHOST OF DIARIES PAST]

     Earlier this season, I proposed the Stribling's cat paws sequel to Schrodinger's cat illustration. I'm not sure everyone got the idea, so let me present it again. First of all, Schrodinger's cat is imagined as being in a box with a radioactive source and poison that will be released when the source emits radiation. According to quantum mechanics, the cat is considered to be simultaneously both dead and alive until the box is opened and the cat is observed.

      Likewise Channing Stribling's hands are either hands with fingers and opposable thumbs good for gripping a football, or they are cat paws that can only bat at a ball much like a cat plays with a ball of yarn. We can only determine which appendage is connected to his arms at any particuluar moment by throwing a football at him. It appears that this very odd law of quantum mechanics has spread to others in the UofM secondary, in particular, Dymonte Thomas. Seth did a great job recapping multiple points in this game where the cats paws returned. Those who aren't versed in the finer points of quantum mechanics, such as dear leader Brian, refer to this as, "the Gypsy," but it's really just an extension of Newtonian mechanics at the secondary level.

      For this theory to make any sense, I need to propose a plausible explanation for where their hands are going when their cat paws show up and bat seemingly interceptable balls right into the opponents' hands. Allow me to make a little detour. I took calculus and differential equations at MSU my senior year in high school. When I started at UofM, they gave me 7 credits for those three courses. Fast forward four years to when UofM tells me they reveiwed MSU's syllabus and it didn't include matrix algebra, so I would need to take a 400 level math class at UofM. It was an interesting class, but it mostly confirmed my decision not to pursue math as a degree. What I remember most was studying n-dimensional space where n>3. I consider myself a practical person, so the idea of studying mathematics to describe 4 or 5 or more dimensional space, when I've never seen more than 3 dimensions seems like a waste of time. What does all this have to do with Michigan's inability to intercept passes at random points this season? I propose that n-dimensional space where n>3 actually does exist and Michigan defensive backs' hands have occupied these multi-dimensional planes of matter at rather inopportune times this season.

Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/103115aaa.html

Burst of Impetus
* Michigan raced out to a 14-3 lead and I, not thinking, said, "this game is wrapped up." After the three consecutive shutouts, could you blame me? However, as soon as I uttered those words, I wished I could call them back. Minnesota tallied a field goal to make it 14-6 and then the Burst of Impetus occurred, changing this game from what was headed for a 28-6 Michigan victory to a back-and-forth, sludgefart of a game.
* With about 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, with Michigan facing a 3rd and 7, They're'an Cockran was called for offsides. This moved Michigan to a very manageable 3rd and 2. Instead of powering for the first down, Michigan tried the naked bootleg play right into Theiran Cockran. He blew up a similar play only two plays earlier. I'm not sure why Michigan thought this was a good idea. Additionally, the receivers only ran 1 yard routes on 3rd and 2. Therean forced a hurried throw and Michigan had to punt. A relatively poor Blake O'Neill punt of 32 yards gave Minnesota reasonable field position.
* On the first play of Minnesota's drive, Desmond Morgan decided to engage a Gopher blocker instead of plugging a hole (UFR -3.) Rodney Smith ran for 23 yards. Two plays later, the gypsy struck Jeremy Clark, or Leidner threw a really horrible pass, that was somehow completed and turned into a 52 yard TD. (Gypsy, UFR -5, is that how this works?).
* But that's not all. Michigan once again could not keep the drive alive and turned the ball over to Minnesota. After a gypsy-aided 39 yard pass, Claeys played it very conservative (foreshadowing the end of the game) and settled for a field goal. Instead of taking a commanding 21-6 lead into halftime, it was Minnesota 16, Michigan 14. What the heck just happened?

The Two Jakes
* Sad Ghost Snake Boodock completed 62% of his passes with only 1 INT, (2 of my arbitrary efficiency marks) but only threw for 6.7 ypa. He also was credited with a fumble on a play that didn't matter since it was 4th down anyway. He left the game after getting Malachi-crunched by a couple gophers. I hope he is able to return next week as I don't remember being impressed by the movie, "Butt Speight."
* Jake Butttt caught four passes for 38 yards. I'm positive there's a parallel universe where the M in MGoBlog stands for Minnesota and their main blogger Briean Boddy-Cook is giving Jake the Maxxxx Williams treatment.
* Doesn't "speight" sound like the name of a ghost or supernatural being? I looked it up and found something even better:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=speight
A russian name meaning fun, awesome, and a name to be jealous of
That Speight guy is really cool
I wish i could be Speight, because they are so cool

Root Tree Runners
* Amara Darboooo led Michigan with 6 receptions for 73 yards. Je-whoooo had 3 for 33.
* Khalid Hell was the only other TE to make a reception.
* De'Vil Smith and Sione Whooo-ma each had one reception. The lack of RB participation in the passing game was glaring. With They'rean Cockran regularly making a beeline to the QB, you'd think a screen pass might work.

Jack O'Lanterns
* Drake Johnson led all ballcarriers with 10 carries and 55 yards. I think we beat MSU if he was healthy for that game.
* Joe Cinderella Kerridge gained 7 key yards on 3 carries. However, the fullbacks were not able to break one of their patented 30 yarders.
* De'Meon Smith carried 9 times for 15 yards and appeared to be banged up later in the game.
* Derrick Green continued running into the first tackler and getting tackled.

Smelly Worms and Moss
* James Moss III and Joe Olden led Michigan's defense with 9 tackles. Moss also contributed a 12 yard sack.
* Is it possible after all those years of getting torched by spread offenses that Michigan has done a complete 180 and now dominates spread O's, but can't stop Pro-Style offenses?
* Ryan GlassGhost had 6 tackles from the nose tackle position and won the game single-handedly by stuffing the last play QB sneak. (That's in response to a poster saying Peppers won the game single-handedly. Hey, everybody's hands helped, except those that turned into cats paws.)
* Jourdan Lewis definitely does not have a scary, Halloween style name and should return to Michigan next season to work on that. He had a BrUp and 5 tackles.
* Delano Hell had 3 tackles as did Maurice Liverwurst. Former Israeli prime minister and UofM linebacker Ben Gurion had one tackle.
* Michigan only had 3 TFLs all game and that was one of the big reasons this game went down to the wire.

Baughscore Bits
* Even though first downs were even at 20-20, Minnesota outgained Michigan 461 to 296. This is a new trend that I don't like.
* Minnesota averaged 19.8 yards per completion. Shoot me in the head. Just go ahead and do it. 19.8 yards per completion?!?
* Cody Poock was second for Minnesota with 10 tackles. I knew he was terrifying.
* The story of this game is the "Red-Zone Scores-Chances" section. For the "Touchdowns" line, it read 4-4 for Michigan and 0-4 for Minnesota. You have to convert when you get your chances, and that's how you overcome a 165 yard discrepancy while losing the turnover battle 2-0. Wait, we won the game? Huh...

WHAT ARE THOSE?
* While Michigan was going over what play to for the critical two point conversion, Jehu Chesson decided it was a good time to play that old party game, guess what card I have on my forehead. I mean, WHAT ARE THOSE?

Officiating Madness
* After the MSU game, I decided to eavesdrop on the officials for this game. I pressed record and slipped my cell phone in referee Dan Capron's back pocket. You see this happen all the time on sitcoms. I'm sure it's plausible, so go with me. I got the phone back and was shocked. I'll spare you the gory details, but I did want to transcribe two interesting sequences - the penalty for Thomas interfering with the Gopher punt return and the late hit on Leidner they picked up.

Play 1
{Referee Dan Capron meets up with Line Judge Brian Bolinger near midfield}
Ref (whispering): drop your flag.
LJ: Wut?
Ref (whispering, a little louder): Drop your flag.
LJ: I didn't see nuthin.
FJ Al Terry approaches, and says: Hey guys, how you doing?
Ref (again to LJ): DROP YOUR FLAG!
LJ: Oh, OK (and he drops his flag.)
SJ Craig Jeffreys enters the scene: Hey guys, we can't let Michigan get the ball back. They're ahead and I need this game to become an instant classic. I'm depending on those residuals to get the boys something good for the holidays.
CJ Steven Thielen approaches: Are you guys getting anything for Jerry Kill for his retirement? I was thinking maybe some dilly bars, but he might take that the wrong way.
LJ: mmm, dilly bars.
FJ: How about a nice crockpot. I hear you can't go wrong with a crockpot. It's good for any occasion.
SJ to Ref: Dan, I need those residuals...
LJ: Isn't a Capron a type of chicken?
FJ: That's a capon, you idiot.
Ref: Personal foul on Michigan for interfering with the punt returner.

Play 2
{Umpire Pat Bayers has dropped his flag indicating a late hit on Michigan}
Ref to Ump: What'd you see Pat?
Ump: Michigan swung the QB around like a rag doll. That's something you see on WWE wrestling. That's gotta be a foul of some sort.
SJ wanders over: Guys, you're ruining this for me. Minnesota's ahead and if you don't let Michigan get the ball back, that ruins any chance we have for an instant classic. The boys need presents for the holidays.
FJ approaches: I've been having second thoughts about that crockpot. Just look at Jerry. I'm sure he's eating fine. How about some crystal stemware?
BJ Scott Buchanan joins the conversation: No, the traditional retirement gift is a watch.
LJ: mmm, dilly bars.
SJ: Guys, Harbaugh is really chewing my ear off. He suggested we look at that big video monitor thingy.
{they all look and see nothing out of the ordinary}
Ref to rest of crew: we're going to look pretty bad throwing a flag on that after not throwing one when Rudock's helmet got torn off and he was injured to the point he had to leave the game.
Ref to CJ: Just to be sure, Steven, what'd you see?
CJ: I'm still trying to figure out what Jehu Chesson has on his forehead...

(H/T to Bull Durham)

A surface trough (think of it as a stretched out area of low pressure) and extra energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring rain to Minnesota tonight (and then to the mitten tomorrow). Luckily, things will clear out for the majority of the day Saturday, and definitely for the game. Evening temps will be near normal for this time of year, so right around 50 degrees. Not too shabby of a Saturday! Let's put that jug back on the shelf in A2! 

If you're in Minneapolis...

Tailgating

If you're up early, lots of clouds and temps in the low 40s with a SW wind at about 10mph (enough to feel a little breeze, leaves blow about). We're going to keep the chance of a few sprinkles here and there around until mid-morning, and that's when we'll start to see some of the clouds break up. We hit 50 degrees for lunchtime, keeping SW winds around 10mph, and we'll have mostly cloudy skies by then. Throughout the afternoon we'll see more and more of that sunshine! Highs will reach the upper 50s, and you'll notice the winds pick up a little bit to around 15mph (some small branches move), so make sure there's a rock on top of those napkins!

Kickoff

Skies really clear out for the evening! Just a few clouds linger as we kick off. 55 degrees heading in, with SW winds back down to about 10mph.

Halftime

We don't need too many layers for this game! Temps only go down by a few degrees as we take that halftime break - hanging on to the low 50s. Keeping those steady 10mph winds out of the SW, and just a few clouds in the sky.

Post-Game

We fall into the upper 40s leaving the game with mostly clear skies. Winds will be out of the SW, but start to shift more westerly heading into the late night. They'll remain constant right around 10mph, and be out of the WSW towards last call. Not a bad night to stay out late and celebrate! If you're taking advantage of turning the clocks back, it'll only be 45 degrees with a wind chill in the low 40s. If you're traveling Sunday, we're looking at highs around 60 with a mix of sun and clouds.

If you're in Ann Arbor...

Yeesh. A gray, rainy day for us here at home. We start the day with lots of clouds and temps in the low 40s. Winds are southerly and light through the first part of the day, and then start to pick up in the early afternoon. Highs will be around 50 degrees. If you're headed somewhere to watch the game, temps will be in the mid 40s with S winds at 15mph, gusting in the low 20s (small trees sway). Rain also moves in during the afternoon, and you can expect showers throughout the evening into the late-night. If you're out late, we lose the gusts and winds drop to 10mph, turning westerly. We then have some scattered showers into Sunday morning before the clouds giveway to some sun. C'mon blue!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

Here's the advanced stats composite schedule rundown as of the week 8 results.  Now that FEI is fully meshed and posting Off/Def/ST break-outs, I'm including that as well:

click to embiggen --^

As it happens, FEI appears to validate M's defensive prowess as much as S&P+; but the offense... has room for improvement (so it's a good week for a bye).  Special Teams is the great equalizer for M, as in the aggregate the Special Teams play compensates for M's offensive deficiencies (no pun intended...) such that the overall ratings for M are in the top ten across the board with the exception being ESPN's FPI rating, which is Monte Carlo based.  I am presuming (maybe someone with insight into FPI might care to comment) that FPI includes some extrapolation of M's turnover margin (or lack thereof).

Turnover luck is certainly something that M has been lacking - it's attributable in no small measure to both of the losses and none of the wins thus far.  A quick metric for gauging turnover luck is to look at the difference between actual and 2nd-order wins, which for M is 1.3 and means M should have 6+ wins thus far.  By comparison, a certain undefeated team who shall not be named on the other hand is -2.0, meaning it would be expected to be 6-2 at this point.  In terms of points per game, M's luck is costing -3.1, where as the UTWSNBN has been benefitting to tune of +3.9, or about a TD between the two.

Iowa remains the expected B1G West champ, and with any luck, MSU will drop is 50/50 game with Illinois Nebraska and M will be in to the B1G CG  if it can win out and get by OSU.

Yours in football - Go Blue!

Please refer to the week 6 diary for additional external sources & references, as well as how to interpret the color scheme if it's not completely intuitive for you.

This is my weekly feature to look back at summer previews, get egg on my face, look over what Michigan did, and then project the rest of the year as we get more real time data.  Last week's taking stock report can be found here.

Prelude:  I did season previews on most UM opponents - I skipped UNLV, Indiana and Rutgers out of boredom, and OSU out of fear.  The rest are below

• BYU, Oregon State, Minnesota, Northwestern,
• Penn State, Maryland, Utah, MSU

---------------------------

Dear readers - the deeper we go into the season the more off my summer views will become as naturally teams will evolve from what we thought they would be and injuries happen.

This summer I predicted there would be a bye week this week. 

I was correct. 100/100.

A Look at Michigan

The planned destruction of Minnesota Gopher football continues on pace.  I cannot divuldge any other details.  Harbaugh was so confident of it he went to a HS football game.

DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY (DOD!) RANKINGS

Basing games on WHEN they are played and WHERE this was my general view on degree of difficulty for each opponent coming into the year and adjusted weekly,    Again this is not how good the team is in a vacuum but how they match up vs UM.

Stock Up

• Indiana (+1) -  The MSU game was deceiving as Indiana did Indiana things the last 6 minutes.  But going on the road vs a top 10 team (even if you believe they are only top 20 worthy) after hosting OSU and showing well there means this team has some danger to it.  Especially as they don't rely on the run like most Big 10 offenses so that will cause some issues.  I see Indiana scoring in the 20s vs UM as Sudfeld is the real deal and they have some nice WRs.  If Howard is healthy at RB (he looked 70% vs MSU and still did better than any UM RB could) in a few weeks he also poses danger although I expect UM to stymie him most of the day.  But he is the type of RB that on any 3 carries in a game could go off for 50 - hence the danger.  Thankfully Indiana's D is its normally crap self although they do seem to have a good player or two on the DL.  Being a road game and having a competent QB and good RB - they pose more matchups problems then most teams.

Stock Down

• Northwestern (-1) - Nebraska is not a good team.  This was not a good game - the parts of it I could stomach to watch.  Northwestern's QB had a few big runs, and NWs D had a big INT return for a score.  Somehow that Northwestern offense held the ball for the last 4+ minutes as Nebraska could not stop them to get the ball back.  Translation - Nebraska's D sucks.  Connor Cook is going to make mincemeat of that unit.  Justin Jackson was shut down for the 3rd week in a row and I wonder now if he is hurt or last year got to his head.  He is not the same player of a year ago.  The leading rusher was the QB Thorson (9 carries 126 yds) and he was his normal mediocre self in the air (13 of 28).  NW is still living off their Stanford win in the advanced stats and the Duke win is looking decent.  With their schedule they probably still have a path to 8+ wins but its front loaded in terms of quality wins.

Stock Flat

• OSU - Unfortunately finally Urban Meyer came to the conclusion that a lot of us had held for many months - JT Barrett is more scary than Cardale Jones as the QB of THE Ohio State.   Barrett was sickingly efficient (14/18, 233 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT) thru the air ... and scary again on the ground with his second straight 100+ yd game.  Elliott did Elliott things and the variance between OSU and UM's offenses with Barrett at the helm is disconcerting.  Yes it was only Rutgers but OSU is doing OSU things under Urban and that is getting better as the season moves along.  OSU's defense also continues to improve shutting down a relatively good QB in Chris Laviano (10/20, 117 yds) and eradicating Rutger's 1 NFL talent on offense in Leonte Carroo.  I think OSU's D is the unsung hero here as it has generally been grading out very well and when I look at mock drafts for NFL they have a multitude of early round NFL players all over it.  This version of OSU is scary and I'm not sure where the "we match up great with OSU" stuff I am reading on the board the past few weeks is coming from, but hey "rivalry game" "1969" and stuff like that.
• Utah - I've long held Utah is not a top 5 team but more like 15-20 but until they lose you have to respect them and give them the top 5 ranking.  They actually have done better than I though the past few weeks although that Cal game was very losable.  But they found a way each week until this week.  Utah this year reminds me of some of the early Dantonio teams in terms a lot of 3 star talent that comes together to be a better team than the individual pieces would show.  Then you look at USC's roster of players and you see Michigan / Penn State of the past 5-7 years.  So this was a game that made sense to lose - talented team, removed of a locker room issue with their coach and with nothing to lose playing an overachieving team that is not super explosive (when not playing Oregon) and simply doesn't have the same level of athletes up and down the roster.   Travis Wilson had a decent game outside of the 4 INTs (24/36) but protecting the ball is job #1 so saying he had a decent game except for the 4 times he handed the ball to USC is not an accurate statement I suppose.  Kesler played error free ball for USC and JuJu Smith (a guy Hoke was after in the same class as Peppers) did cool stuff that playmakers do.  I think both Juju and Adoree Jackson have now been converted to offensive players?  They came out of HS as secondary players (just imagine the secondary of Juju, Adoree, Peppers, Lewis).  Anyhow - sigh.  Playmakers.  As for Utah, still has a great chance for a 2-3 loss season max.
• MSU  - Speaking of playmakers.  Connor MF Cook.  Damn.  That dude made himself some serious cash the last 3 weeks.  He has no run game for defenses to really respect and yet is single handidly winning games (well except for *THAT*) nowadays.  But even considering *THAT* MSU had no offense vs Michigan aside from Cook.  Same vs Indiana. Same vs Rutgers.  30/52 for 398, 4 TDs and most impressive no INTs... after throwing 52 times.  Watching the game I don't even recall a near miss of an INT that is Cook's usual thing.  Some of the throws were just remarkable at the college level.   Frankly I have no idea why MSU did not do that strategy vs UM ...they seem to love getting themselves in 3rd and long and then unleashing Cook on 3rd down.  Thankfully they played Debord style vs UM.  Also frustrating watch was Indiana getting more pressure on Cook then UM did.  But it didn't matter.  This game they saw it was going to be a shootout as Indiana could actually exploit their young secondary (something UM was totally incapable of) so they let Cook go off all game.  I dont give a damn how he projects in the NFL; it doesn't mean a thing in college level terms which is what we are dealing with.  He is straight dealing right now and for all those who say MSU has zero chance vs OSU ... IMO you fail to comprehend what an equalizer a QB playing at this level can be.  Until a stake is put through zombie MSU's heart, Dantonio runs out of souls to sell (torrential monsoon rain on Indiana's 3rd drive, promptly ending as MSU took over post punt) and/or Cook is out with injury they have a chance in any game if he is playing at this level. 
• BYU -  BYU beat Wagner 70-6.  I was unaware Wagner played football.  So was Wagner.  To put this in perspective Wagner lost 43-14 the prior week to THE St Francis Red Flash.  Yes seriously.
• PSU - Reading thru all the PSU-Maryland game recaps and it sounded like a typical Brady Hoke game with all the associated follies; turnovers, penalties, goofy decisions.  I was not a big fan of James Franklin and as each week passes I feel ever more content he is basically Brady Hoke with a better defensive coordinator than Mattison was.  Maryland (!) was the team that finally stymied freshman RB phenom Barkley (20 carries for 65 yds).  They had to turn to Hackenberg who actually had a game for himself.  Chris Godwin averaged (!!) 33.8 per reception on 4 catches.  The longest was 40 so this was not one huge catch skewing his stats.  PSU's D - like UM's for decades - is pretty good vs conventional offenses but really sucks vs dual threats.  They had held OSU to 21 thru 3 last week before Barrett was inserted at QB and then the wheels fell off.  This week a crappy Perry Hills ran all over the defense.  No seriously - he ran 26x for 124 yds.  So PSU's D is sort of Jeckyl and Hyde - against conventional offenses it is troubling; vs dual threat QBs its Michigan of (pick any year from 1992 to 2014).   Unfortunately we have a conventional offense with a mediocre QB and an average OL which is going to face multiple players of McDowell, Calhoun level.  I continue to forecast #M00P in this game as both defenses stymie the offenses.  I will have to research how bad or good PSU's special teams are because it's going to be difficult to count on one as bad as MSU's to give UM's offense all the breaks they received vs MSU.
• Minn - Minnesota had a bye so did not offer me a chance to drop them in the DOD rankings.  Minn is a poor man's Northwestern.
• Maryland  - Maryland gave PSU a game I suppose but Maryland's offense is very much UM's offense with Rich Rod in terms of its all abou the QB.  Caleb Rowe was not a runner, Perry Hills is.  So hard to compare apples to oranges.  Maryland is 2-5 and 0-3 in the conf and still probably better than the crap teams below them in the ranks.
• Rutgers  - Rutgers poses some sort of threat I guess but I've had them this low all year because this is a home game, Rutgers has 1 NFL level offensive player and a joke for a defense.  All these things OSU exploited.  If UM lets Rutgers pass game go off on them, then it shows some fraudulent cracks IMO as we have played so few decent passing QBs. Rutgers shold not get more than 10-13 in this game if OSU could shut them down completely in Jersey and Rutgers D is poor enough UM should easily get into the 20s/30s.
• Oregon State - OSU lost to a garbage Colorado team and program.  At home.  Colorado had a 14 game losing streak in the Pac 12 before this game.  (last win 2013).  They had a 12 road game losing streak in conference (last win 2012)  Thanks Beavers.  Remember when you got all excited a hung over Stanford team let OSU stick around for 30 minutes before deciding to show up a month ago?  That was cool.  Seth Collins was replaced at starter by Nick Mitchel who promptly went 9/24 with an INT.  The 2 rotated all game.  Which is like Threet vs Sheridan.
• UNLV - UNLV had a bye thus did not have a chance to fall to 13th.  They play Boise State next week which could beat them into the year 2016.

Overall

Rabble rabble rabble Rudock.  Rabble rabble rabble playmakers.  Rabble rabble rabble.

Next Week

Pain.  But depending on how early we get a big lead and shut down the offense, maybe less pain than some assume.  But pain.

I know this isnt rocket science, but i do think that a lot of our deep throw misses can be attributed to ball control and turnover margin issues.  Becasue of early turnovers Michigan has been working in a hole,  and loosing the turnover margin means losses to a ball control team.  I think the shots downfield that are missed are as bad as turnovers, but since they arent counted as such they still show up on stat sheets as a zero gain play.     Confidence is still an issue because of those early turnovers.

 Its better to throw a ball with zero percent chance of completeion with a zero percent change of interception then it is to throw a ball that is 50/50, When you are lacking the confidence and are still in the half full mentallity.  

my hope is that a few more games with zero bad interceptions will lead to a qb that puts balls closer to that 50/50 and less to the 0/0...  there is still something to be said about atempting the long ball enough to where the defense at least has to take the top off the coverage, and harbaugh knows this which is why they are still taking those shots,  But i still think at this point not throwing an interception is more important to the staff and maybe to the QB then completing the pass..

G

LSU 35, Florida 28

Before the season, eight SEC teams were ranked in each major poll – now approximately halfway through the season, there’s only one undefeated team left: Les Miles’s LSU Tigers, who have leaned on Leonard Fournette, a strong offense line, and a characteristically stout defense. After a tightly-contested win over Florida – a classic Miles game that was won on a fake field goal in the fourth quarter – the Tigers look every bit the part of a playoff contender: they face Alabama in three weeks on the road in a game that will likely play an enormous role in determining the SEC West.*

Considering the context, Florida acquitted themselves  well. With Treon Harris at the helm in place of suspended starting quarterback Will Grier, the Gators were forced to turn to a quarterback who’d proven to be erratic and ineffective in the past, but Harris played a solid game – especially for a visiting QB in Death Valley – throwing for two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even though Florida was completely unable to establish a running game (31 carries for 55 yards), the Gators put 28 points on the board, though half of them came on an LSU fumble on a punt return deep in Tigers territory and an electric punt return touchdown from freshman Antonio Callaway that tied the game late in the third quarter.

The most appealing game-within-the-game in this high-level matchup was Leonard Fournette and the LSU offensive line against their toughest test in a very solid Florida run defense: Fournette still notched 5.8 yards per carry on 31 attempts, though his longest carry of the day was just 25 yards. The big plays, surprisingly, were provided by a heretofore unproven passing game – a 52-yard flea-flicker to Malachi Dupre set up an early Fournette touchdown and Brandon Harris connected with Dupre again for a 50-yard touchdown in the waning seconds of the first half. Harris still hasn’t thrown an interception this season, allowing LSU even more comfort in their preferred style. The blueprint hasn’t changed for Les Miles: the Tigers want to control the game on the ground as much as possible.

Ultimately, it was a mostly even game – had LSU elected to actually kick the field goal, they likely still would have won – but  Fournette again showed why he’s the most impressive player in college football, very possibly its best. Florida, which would have pushed itself squarely into the playoff discussion with a win, still remains in the driver’s seat in the SEC East – they can lock up the division with a win over Georgia this weekend.

*Also at the forefront in the SEC West hunt is Ole Miss. The Rebels may have seen their playoff hopes slip away for good with a loss to Memphis this past weekend, but they still only have one loss in SEC play (to Florida), a tiebreaker over Alabama, and a home game against LSU later this season. Things aren’t looking great in Oxford right now, but they’re in it as much as anyone at this point.

[More footbaw after the jump]