this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Think back to when you started reading mgoblog. Remeber that feeling of validation that there were indeed people out there like you, people who wanted to write about football in way that was funny but also disarmingly analytical? A site that values both memes and knowing the average yards per play for every formation Michigan has run so far this season is my kind of place. It's the reason I've been reading this site since 2006.
My objective for the coming hockey season is to add something empirical to the mix. I've always gravitated towards advanced stats in hockey, and for those of you who follow college hockey know all too well these types of statistics aren't readily available outside of the NHL. What I'm going to attempt to do is track Michigan's Corsi rating over the entire season.
Of course, Corsi is just one statistic (even if I'll break it down into a number of different components). The "big idea" behind Corsi is that you have to hold on to the puck to score, and that the team who does a better job of this has a better chance of winning. At the end of the day it provides some interesting insight into puck possession and could be useful for gauging the strength or weakness of special teams play, but it isn't a be-all-end-all stat. There are score effect problems, most notably that even strengh Corsi or Corsi from within one goal in the first and second periods is correlated with winning but it gets dicey in other situations. More on this later.
If you're looking for a nice overview of the statistic you can find that here.
What I need to know from you guys is whether you find it interesting and useful enough to continue tracking. If the fine folks of the MGoCommunity don't like it then I'll go back to writing up goal-by-goal analysis posts like these.
That's cool and all but this post is really boring me. No pictures yet? Come on, do you at least have charts?
Charts? This is mgoblog, fergodsake. Of course I have charts! Let's start by looking at things by period before looking at the bigger picture.
You don't have to know much about Corsi to see that Michigan carried the play in the first period. 72.9% of shot attempts came from the Wolverines, yet Waterloo ended up with the lone first period goal. Michigan made one mistake in defensive coverage in front of their own net and Waterloo took advantage. It's worth noting, however, that Michigan's Corsi total was bolstered by time on the power play (Waterloo didn't have one in the 1st). UM recorded five shots, seven missed shots, and five blocked shots over their two power plays.
Waterloo seemed to carry play in the second period and the Corsi numbers reflect that. Michigan's goal was something of a fluke, coming after Waterloo's goaltender badly misplayed the puck in front of his own net. Waterloo did get on the power play in the 2nd period, but they failed to register a shot. Their power play generated one missed shot and two blocked shots. Michigan's power play registered three shots, two missed shots, and two blocked shots.
Here's where the score effect problem I mentioned earlier comes into play. Waterloo was content to carry the puck into the neutral zone and play dump-and-chase in order to burn clock, and when you're playing that style a byproduct is a reduction in the number of shots you take. As you can see, that's certainly reflected in the numbers above.
Michigan had the edge in every category tracked here, yet they couldn't convert opportunities into results. I think that the reason for this lies in the type of shots Michigan was taking; most were from the perimeter, and perimeter shots are much easier for a goaltender to stop than shots through traffic. It will be interesting to see how the possession game plays out against BC, a team with a notoriously stringent defense.
Don't you usually draw on screencaps or something? Why are there all these charts?
Yeah, I call the screencap thing goal-by-goal analysis. I'm not set on moving away from that completely, but I want to know if people find the info above interesting. Like it and I'll keep tracking it, hate it and I'll go back to GBGA.
Well folks, it's been a while since we beat Penn State. If it's going to happen this week, it's most likely going to need a Jake Ryan appearance and a good showing by Devin(s) again this week. This is my first wallpaper of the week. I'll do a less DARK one later this week if I get time. I hope you enjoy the wallpaper. It was a LITTLE rushed, but overall, I am pleased with the outcome. As always, I love constructive criticism and/or ideas for future wallpapers. I will usually at least try to accomodate those that are feasible for the enjoyment of the MGoBlog community. Go Blue!
Desktop (16:9) 1920x1080:
Zip, Zero, Nada, None, Null: For the first time in 2 years (!) Michigan did not have a giveaway. Coincidently, the last time was also against Minnesota in 2011. However, giveaways usually come in bunches so it is still too early to say the problem is solved. Let's hope good Devin is here to stay. Michigan improved to #20 in scoring offense and #21 in scoring defense. Manball continues with a 66% run play percentage for the game and 60.3% for the year (ranked #20).
Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was +2 and for the year it is now – 3 (– 0.60 per game) which is ranked #95. Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State are the only other B1G teams with negative TOM for the year. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game but Michigan had an advantage of 10.5 expected points for the two takeaways. Countess had his fourth interception of the year and is tied for #1 in the nation. Blake also has 149 interception return yards and leads the nation. Black had a forced fumble which was recovered by Ross III.
National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).
This chart shows Expected Points for various yard lines.
This chart shows the basis of EP calculations for each turnover.
a bit early this week, not many changes.
Per my note last week, I have switched this over to focus more on the in-conference play now, so if the numbers seem wildly different, it is because everyone only has one or two conference games under their belt at this point, so at least for now, the meaningful analysis might be somewhat limited. All the same, this is your Monday opportunity to see how everyone in the conference is doing right now.
It should be noted that the divide here is not perfect – last week, a few teams already had one conference game in the books, so this is rather a reset because I think there might be more interest in this part of the schedule.
SCORING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
We’ll just shoot right to the bottom here – Minnesota and Purdue share the dubious honor of the worst scoring performances to date. They are also a comfortable 8thand 11threspectively in scoring defense as well, which goes a long way towards their "0-fer" starts in the Big Ten part of the schedule. The differential chart is sort of self-explanatory in that a few of the negatives are in fact the losers from this past weekend.
TOTAL OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
Here again, you see the rocky start of Minnesota and Purdue, but the top of the offensive yardage chart probably is not a shock to anyone. Nebraska, Indiana and Wisconsin have not had much trouble moving the ball all years, with the difference being Wisconsin is much better at not giving those yards right back, if you will. The differential chart clearly denotes the in-conference progress of Boilerquest.
RUSHING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
There’s not a whole lot to glean from these stats until we’re deeper into the conference schedule. One thing that is at least consistent here is the top rushing teams on offense are more or less the same from the non-conference schedule. Also, Boilerquest.
PASSING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:
Perhaps thankfully, here’s something Purdue can be proud of – they do not have the worst passing defense in the conference. They also don’t throw it a lot, at least not with any consistent success, so there is also that. Indiana and Penn State threw it a lot over the weekend, but then by at least Penn State standards (but in line with Indiana standards), they gave up a lot of yards in the air too.
As we’ve discussed in other diaries, if you lose this battle, you’ll have enormous trouble winning the game, and you can see that here. The team with the worst performance in conference play overall, as you can see on the differential chart, is questing to be a terrible Boiler.
These may not mean much until later on either. Still, here is what it looks like.
Turnovers will appear next week as well, and probably first down differentials.
Inspired by the Great T-Shirt Debate of 2013, I've decided to completely revamp the format. But first, let me share with you some great t-shirts I found over at MinnGoBlog's t-shirt store.
Minnesota Football, Play Like a Campion Today
... BAK to the Future
... Win one for the Killer
... No Epping Way
Snake Plsek, I thought he was dead
and from the Seinfeld-inspired section of the store,
Minnesota Football, Folks are Talking about our Botticelli Shoes
Ski-U-Mah Harbison, no wait, he sounds made up
Our Lady of Blessed Acceleration, don't fail me now.
* When you finally grab the momentum in a game, you want to hit the gas and build on it. UofM did just that by taking the 2nd half kickoff and going 75 yards in 9 plays, to extend a 7 point halftime lead to 14. Considering it takes Minnesota ~10 minutes per drive to score, that meant that they would have to be perfect to come back. They weren't.
We're putting the band back together
* The band will be back together when Jake Ryan comes back. For now, the defense is doing their best to bring back the tradition of Michigan defense. Once again, the Michigan defense prevented the opposition from scoring a rushing touchdown.
* It's a rather large band with an impressive horn section, as 23 players recorded a defensive stat. Desmond Morgan, once again, led the way with 10 total tackles. JR3 had 9, plus a fumble recovery.
* Minnesota only passed 21 times, so it was not a big week for QHs and sacks.
* If there is one complaint, it's that we only tallied 3 TFLs on 41 Minnesota rushing attempts. However, once they did cross the line, they didn't get far, averaging only 3.3 YPC, with a long of 18 yards.
We're on a Mission from Gard (NOW THAT'S A T-SHIRT!!!)
* ZERO TURNOVERS. Hallelujah!
* The "inaccurate" Devin Gardner was 13 of 17, for 235 yards and a TD. Let's see, that's 76% completion percentage, 18.1 YPC and 13.8 YPA, but he's inaccurate? I've heard Big Ten Network announcers better than that bozo Ed Cunningham.
* Gardner only ran 7 times for 17 yards, but he did have a rushing TD.
It's a model made before catalytic converters so it'll run good on regular gas. What do you say, is it the new Bluesmobile or what?
* Fitz had 78 yards on 17 carries, and 2 TDs. More importantly, he only lost 1 yard all day. Is it the new Bluesmobile or what? Frankly, after going through four weeks of multiple negative rushing plays, I'll take it.
* Green added 23 yards on 10 carries and another TD.
Four Fried Chickens and a Coke
* The four returning linemen joined with newcomer, Chris Bryant, to provide an effective rushing attack. Michigan only fumbled one snap, something that we were all worried about, and gave up only one sack. It was really nice not watching our center get pushed back five yards on nearly every play.
* Besides the 9 yard sack, our o-line only gave up 4 yards worth of TFL's to Minnesota.
And some dry white toast please
* Wile was back to normal, providing all the excitement of dry white toast. He averaged 51.7 yards on three punts, that netted an average of 45.7 yards.
Your women. I want to buy your women. The little girl, your daughters... sell them to me. Sell me your children!
* Norfleet returned two kicks for 52 yards total, and recorded a tackle on special teams.
* Dileo returned two punts for 13 yards and caught 1 pass for 12 yards.
Orange whip? Orange whip? Three orange whips.
* The excitement was provided by three wide receivers, particularly Funchess, who caught 7 balls for 151 yards and a TD.
* Chesson had three catches as he increasingly becomes a larger part of the offense, and Gallon had two grabs.
Cook County Assessor's Office
* Minnesota was called for 6 penalties to our two.
* There was one drive we had in which penalty flags were thrown on long Michigan gains. My heart sunk, but fortunately, both calls were on the Gophers.
* I was a little leary going into the game, as these officials just sound like Gophers: Roggeman, Krogstad, and Riepenhoff. Wasn't that the starting frontline of the '79 Minnesota basketball team?
I hate Illinois Nazis
* If you're going to make a Blues Brothers-inspired T-Shirt about one of our longstanding rivals, how is this NOT the shirt?
* This is the announcers section, but I already discussed them. That was a brutal game to listen to. Minny-Tebow for Heisman!
Minnie the Moocher
* Minnesota almost matched us, with 16 first downs to our 17. They also converted 8 of 15 third downs, but couldn't get us off the field either, as we went 10 for 13.
Besides being a huge UofM football fan, my dad was a big fan of John Belushi's. He would have a Mass said every year on the anniversary of Belushi's death. Dad was extremely protective of his kids, not allowing us to see or hear anything R-rated. However, he made an exception for John Belushi. There were two movies that mattered when I was a kid, Animal House and Blues Brothers. One year for Christmas, Dad bought us "The Best of Belushi" video that had his best SNL skits. While other kids were learning the Beastie Boys and Run DMC raps, I was memorizing Belushi's "Luck of the Irish" SNL News bit (Let's talk about the bad luck of the Irish, all right? How about this, POTATO FAMINE!! How about that? It scares them, doesn't it? Well, it should.) So with that as a backdrop, I can still honestly say, I think Dad would look at that T-Shirt and ask, "Why is Joe Paterno praying on that shirt?"