I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
[ed: bump so hard Jake Ryan wanna fine me]
[ed-S: I had to completely repost due to some bad html that was making it unreadable, so all the old comments are gone. Apologies to those of you who commented earlier--if you didn't, all you missed is Blue Seoul doesn't live in Seoul anymore]
Working Too Hard
So this is what it's like having a real job. I have enough time to watch the games, but not enough to obsessively analyze them. But there's been a lingering question about Fitz's lack of productivity compared to last season that I wanted to take a stab at answering. So even though it's a couple weeks late, here's my analysis of what's been going wrong for Fitz.
I see three main differences that are causing the lack of production:
- Fitz is being overworked
- The blocking is not as good
- Fitz is lacking some burst
There are some other problems in the defensive schemes and matchups, the playcalling, and our lack of run audibles, but these are minor issues and don't really explain everything.
For Fitz' sake!
This play didn't count, but it's indicative of the kind of problems the O-line was having in short yardage. Notice how all the defenders are keeping their blockers at arms length, they've got their heads up to watch the ball, and their lateral movement is keeping them on the l.o.s. instead of getting pushed back into the endzone. After watching a year of Greg Mattison, this is some pretty good fundamentals from the Boiler DL. Fitz takes the ball a little wider than he should have, but part of that is the fullback, #36 just got destroyed. He's too small, and his pad level is too high. It would have been a tough cut, but there was a little bit of space behind Schofield. That's the kind of cut Fitz was making at the end of last year. But he either didn't see it, or was too tired on this play.
I've noted it before, but here's another example of why we don't run more veer and speed option. Denard just doesn't have much experience or feel for the pitch. On this play we had a nice wall and he should have stuck his nose in there for the first down. I don't particularly like that, because I don't want him to take unnecessary hits. But he pitches this ball way too early.
Jake MotherF****** Ryan! The long lost brother of Jack MotherF******** Johnson. I like how having an expletive as your middle name has become a term of endearment.
Look at how far away he is from this play. But his instant recognition and his quick first step™ allow him make the play.
He completely takes the running back by surprise with his Superman impression.
And trips him up for a nice TFL. That's called 'selling out' on a play. (Giving it your all)
The most nonchalant hook n' ladder pitch of all time.
"I ain't got the ball."
Devin Gardner's Development
I believe that's what the kids are calling, "Highpointing the ball".
How does scoring a touchdown make DG feel?
Pretty damn good.
How do two TD's make Fitz feel?
Well, alllllrighty then...I'm not real good at reading expressions, but I'm pretty sure that one is saying "Hey twitter, STFU."
Hate Week: Never Forget.
a few small changes for redshirt language are fixed. any other things, let me know.
As mentioned by THE KNOWLEDGE last week on these very pages, this is a virtual bye week for the Michigan football team inasmuch as msu offers only a token challenge. next week will be a lot more interesting
so let us go THE CHALLENGE 2012.5 right away
pointers to the game:
- Michigan will win
- msu will lose and will play dirty as usual
- msu will be unable to move the ball consistently on offense
- Michigan will not have that problem
on to more pressing matters
POTW awards and TWoS ridicule
the moment every one on this blog has been eagerly awaiting is here: the awarding of the POTW from weeks past. in this post, THE KNOWLEDGE shall congratulate the winners from the B1G games (2012.3 and 2012.4). during another virutal bye week, THE KNOWLEDGE shall congratulate the OOC game winners (2012.1 and 2012.2)
in addition, THE KNOWLEDGE will also shame certain idiots that try to act smart by putting them on The Wall of Shame (TWoS)
2012.3 winner is UMgradMSUdad who predicted 41-13 Vs Purdue (3 points off)
2012.4 winner is Productive Sweatpants who predicted 45-3 Vs Illinois (also 3 points off)
congratulations to these two Proteges! you can Bask in Glory along with THE KNOWLEDGE
the TWoS shamees are Coach Schiano and Gonzo di Dottore, who "predicted" 45-0 score against Illinois after the game
[EDIT - PGB]
after THE KNOWLEDGE revealed last week that Michigan shall finish the season 12-2 (after the occurrence of the followup Irregularity), many people chose to follow THE KNOWLEDGE and become worry-free for the rest of the season
there were also a few fools that emailed THE KNOWLEDGE to say that THE KNOWLEDGE was wrong.
as usual, these people shall be left in a trail of dust as THE KNOWLEDGE soars when these results come true
WTFL;DR: Narduzzi coaches an aggressive take on the now en vogue Quarters defense that's still formidable even if State isn't quite what it was last year.
We got to the point where, this is the reason that we do this, when everybody started going spread we couldn’t play 3 deep zone. This started with the Cleveland Browns, I was the defensive coordinator in the early 90s and Pittsburgh would run 'Seattle' on us , four streaks. Then they would run two streaks and two out routes, what I call ‘pole’ route from 2x2. So we got to where could NOT play 3-deep zone because we rerouted the seams and played zone, and what I call “Country Cover 3” [drop to your spot reroute the seams, break on the ball]. Well , when Marino is throwing it, that old break on the ball shit don’t work.So because we could not defend this, we could not play 3 deep, so when you can’t play zone, what do you do next? You play Man [cover 1], but if their mens are better than your mens, you can’t play cover 1 .We got to where we couldn’t run cover 1 - So now we can’t play an 8 man front. The 1994 Browns went 13-5 , we lost to Steelers 3 times, lost 5 games total [twice in the regular season, once in the playoffs]. We gave up the 5th fewest points in the history of the NFL, and lost to Steelers because we could not play 8-man fronts to stop the run because they would wear us out throwing it
For example, if the offense splits out two wide receivers to the same side of the field, and both run straight up the field on deep routes, the safety plays man on the inside guy and the cornerback plays man on the outside guy. If, however, the inside receiver were to run immediately to the flat -- say, on a bubble screen -- while the outside receiver ran upfield, the corner and the safety would actually double team the deep man, defending him from both the inside and the outside. This type of read-and-react is great against the spread's multiplicity, as it can allow some very short completions but lead to lots of interceptions and few downfield passing windows.
I finally got my video editing rig unborked, so now I can get back to making parkinggod highlights and Moving Picture Pages.
(update) My time off has made me sloppy. Wrong font, weird timings on the captions, forgot the Evil Space Magic trick to embed the video, didn't properly credit Brian (original analysis his, used with permission), didn't link back to the original http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-short-yardage-slant, etc., etc. You'll have to excuse me for a bit while I go run the stadium steps.
Prediction for MSU: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Michigan State 20 – Michigan 18 with a 56% Probable Win Expectation for Sparty? Basically a toss up but, like the Purdue game, FEI is wrong and Michigan wins the game 24 – 13. As you can see below, FEI has been really schizophrenic about M this year. M at #47 is the lowest ranked 4 win AQ team in FEI and MSU at #27 is the highest ranked 3 loss team in FEI.
Fremeau Efficiency Index: Week #7 is significant because all remnants of preseason projected data is removed from the formulas and all data represents 2012 games only. In addition both offense and defense efficiency are now opponent-adjusted and are referenced as OFEI and DFEI (up until this point OE and DE were just raw numbers).
That said, WTF!!!
After a 45-0 drubbing of an admittedly weak Illinois team, FEI blasted the overall rating to #47 (from #24 last week) and pummeled the offense efficiency to #63 (from #40 last week). Defense efficiency improved to #27 (from #33 last week).
The S&P Ratings (Also from Football Outsiders) is a play based analysis (rather than possession based) and M is ranked #9 overall, #7 in offense, and #22 in defense.
The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
National Rankings: The rankings for Week #7 offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.
FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).
Points Per Possession: The offense continued to rack up the points and the defense recorded their first shutout. Cumulative PPPo is 2.9 for the offense and 1.5 for the defense. M finished 2011 outscoring opponents by almost a 2:1 margin with PPPo for offense of 2.8 and defense of 1.4. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).
Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).