Diaries

So now that the brackets are out and Michigan has drawn a 4 seed in the South Region, I thought I'd take a look at how 4 seeds have fared in tournaments past, going back to when the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.  Surprisingly, Googling "Historical Performance of Seeds in NCAA Tournament" yields a plethora of data that just begs to be analyzed statistically and have conclusions drawn over which one can agonize.  I wish the news were better.

The News Is Bad?  How Bad?

In the 28 years since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, squads seeded fourth have won grand total of 167 games for a per tournament average of 5.96 wins, give or take 2.06 wins.  Essentially this falls in line with confirming chalk.  If you're a 4 seed, you're a great bet to win your first game, a 50/50ish bet to win your 2nd, and then you're probably ewww.  This probably doesn't come as a surprise, since if you're a 4 seed coming out of the first weekend, you're probably facing the 1 seed, and beating a one seed is hard.

So It's Hopeless Then?

Well no, it's not hopeless.  Being a 4 seed is definately better than being a 5 or higher;  as the numbers show that fortunes for teams not seeded in the Top 16 of the tourney fall precipitiously.  For all the romance that media-types assign to "Cinderellas" in the tounament; runs like George Mason or Villanova are very much the exception. 

Since 1985, 11 four seeds have advanced to the Final Four in 10 separate NCAA Tournaments (The 1990 Tournament saw 4 seeds Georgia Tech and Arkansas both advance to the Final Four).  Of those 11 teams that managed to make it the Final Four, 2 of them advanced to the Finals (Syracuse 1996, Arizona 1997), with only Lute Olsen's 1997 Arizona Wildcats having the stuff to find themselves hoisting the championship trophy.

The only precedent we have to lean on, but there is a precedent

Only One Champion In 28 Seasons?  That Sounds Pretty Hopeless.

Well, it does occur to me that this only has any real meaning if there is something to compare it against, say the 1 - 3 seeds.  This sounds like a perfect opportunity for a...

Chart?  Chart

Lest we forget, one of those four 3 seeds is 1989 Michigan, woo!

So yeah, big surprise here.  One and two seeds make up 2/3rds of all the teams that have appeared in the Final Four and have won 75% of all the titles since 1985.  This can mean one of two things.  One, that the Selection Committee is very good at seeding teams based on their relative strength or two, the path of the one and two seeds is conducive for advancing.  Personally, I tend to think it's more Door #2 than Door #1.  The real takeaway from this with regards to Michigan 2013 is that the distinction between a 3 and 4 seed seems to be pretty small.

[EDIT:  I would like to point out the anomaly that while 2 seeds appear in the Final Four about half the rate of 1 seeds and twice the rate of 3 and 4 seeds, they only come away with a quarter of the titles, a disproportionately low number.  Y U no pull your weight in the Finals two seeds?]

So What Does This All Mean For Our Guys?

Well, I'd rather see us as a 3 seed personally, and was a bit miffed to find us slide from a predicted 2 seed to a 4 based upon one loss to Wisconsin (F#*k, Wisconsin), but then I think the Selection Committee has undervalued the competitiveness of the B1G in general with the brackets.  I am looking forward to seeing  Michigan play some non-Big Ten competition.  I think we'll be pleasantly surprised at how good we suddenly look again, assuming the guys haven't completely lost their confidence.

Still, Michigan has it's work cut out for it as the four seeds have historically had tough sledding in the NCAA Tournament.  I do take some comfort in the words of my old Econ professor who liked to remind his class that, "past performance is no guarantee of future earnings".  Here's to a deep, entertaining, and trend-bucking tournament run from the 2013 Wolverines.  Go Blue!

Short post because I'm exhausted.  I like the matchup.  Enjoy the desktop. GO BLUE!

Desktop (16:9)

- JonValk

For those of you that missed it...
DESMOND BLOCKHAM WAS IN AN ACCIDENT YESTERDAY
that may or may not have involved, well, a Twosie.  A tandem bicycle.
Be sure to read yesterday's strip in the link above before moving on to...

THE DIAGNOSIS

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Yes, that's right, next week the Blockhams will go to the practice field.
And it will not be pretty.  You have been warned.

Friday Fun will highlight today's Senior Pro Day.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every week here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

Follow THE BLOCKHAMS™ on Twitter at @theblockhams, and don't forget to
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[Previous MGoHistory: 1986, 1971, & 1997] 

We now find ourselves on a strange planet, standing before a large, rocky arch that emits an eerie glow.  Inside the arch scenes flash in rapid succession.  “What the hell is that?”, one of us asks.  Surprisingly the arch responds in a booming voice, “I am the Guardian of Forever!  I can be your guide to any time and place you desire!  Heed the instructions of the man next to you.”  We turn to find a tall, lithe man, with pointed ears dressed in a tight blue shirt staring impassively at a small black box that hums.  “When I tell you”, the strange man says, “step through the portal.”  We turn to each other and shrug.  His shirt isn’t red, so we must be in good hands.  “Go now!” he instructs.  We leap and hurl ourselves through time and space to find ourselves arriving in….1989.

The end of the 80’s kicks off with the end of the Reagan era, sort of.  Reagan’s former Vice President, George HW Bush is inaugurated in January, becoming the 41^stPresident of the United States.  The Bush Administration starts off on a positive note when, in February, the Soviets withdraw the last of their troops from Afghanistan, ending their 9 year occupation.  Things take a turn for the negative in March as Americans discover the inconvenient truth that drunk tanker captain, plus broken navigation system, equals bad; resulting in the Exxon Valdex running aground and spills hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil into Prince William Sound off the coast of Alaska.  By spring, world attention turns to China as student protesters march on in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square demanding democratic reforms of China’s communist regime.  The demonstration ends violently in early June as China’s hardliners deploy the military to disperse the protesters, resulting in thousands of injuries and deaths.  Meanwhile throughout the year, the Iron Curtain starts to crumble as Soviet-supported regimes across Eastern Europe are deposed in numerous free elections.  This wave of democracy propagates with astonishing speed and incredibly culminates, in late autumn, with the fall of Berlin Wall, symbolically ending the Cold War.

In other news, the American space probe, Voyager 2, makes the final planetary rendezvous of its mission when it flies by Neptune.  Author Salman Rushdie discovers that it’s a bad idea to piss off Iranian clerics after Ayatollah Khomeini issues a fatwa for the publication of “The Satanic Verses”, forcing Rushdie to go into hiding for several years.  Later, he’ll be compensated for this inconvenience by getting to sleep with Padma Lakshmi.  Lastly, an anonymous computer scientist at CERN, Timothy Berners-Lee, invents a revolutionary internet-based information management system that he calls the World Wide Web.  The Web makes the internet accessible to virtually every person on the planet, revolutionizing the way humans communicate and eventually leading to mankind’s greatest achievement; blogs.

In sports, iconic players dominate the championship scenes of several leagues.  Joe Montana wins the 3^rdof his 4 Super Bowls by leading the San Francisco 49ers over the Cincinnati Bengals, 20-16, in Super Bowl XXIII, with the great Jerry Rice earning MVP honors.  The Detroit Pistons “Bad Boys”, lead by Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas, end years of frustration against the Celtics and Lakers, by besting the LA Lakers in 4 games to finally win the franchise’s first NBA championship.  In golf, British legend Nick Faldo wins his first of 3 Masters titles by defeating American Scott Hoch.  German tennis players dominate the pro circuit with Boris Becker being named the ATP Player of the Year after winning Wimbledon and the US Open.  Meanwhile, on the womens side, Steffi Graf continues her rise to making a claim as the greatest female player of all time by following up her 1988 Grand Slam with victories in 3 of the 4 majors, coming in as a runner-up only in the French Open.  In mid-October, the “Bay” Series between the Oakland A’s and San Francisco Giants is interrupted 30 minutes before Game 3 by the Loma Prieta earthquake.  The Series is delayed 10 days before Oakland would complete a four game sweep of the Giants.

On the big screen, people flock to see Harrison Ford and Sean Connery quest for the Holy Grail in “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade”.  “Batman” is released and reinvigorates the superhero movie genre, which continues to thrive to this day.  Kevin Costner and Michigan Alum James Earl Jones star in “Field of Dreams”, which teaches us that “If you build it, he will come”.  And Morgan Freeman achieves mainstream stardom in the Oscar-winning “Driving Miss Daisy”. 

Television sees the premier of several programs that will be archetypes of the 90’s such as “Seinfeld”, “The Simpsons”, and “The Arsenio Hall Show”.  We also see the premier of such Saturday morning cult favorites “Saved By The Bell” and “American Gladiators”.  The year sees the departure of mainstay programming that had endured for decades prior.  “American Bandstand” and the original “Doctor Who” air for the final time.  TV in the 80's gets a symbolic farewell when “Miami Vice” airs for the last time.  In addition to TV programming, people amuse themselves with next generation video game consoles such as Sega Genesis and Ninetendo comes out with the GameBoy.

In other entertainment, more and more of America’s youth are listening to rap and hip hop.  Acts such as Public Enemy and “Fear of a Black Planet”, and N.W.A with their album “Straight Outta Compton” gain mainstream acceptance.  Former Michigan student Madonna continues to be pops biggest draw with her hit “Like A Prayer”, Poison releases the definitive hair metal power ballad, “Every Rose Has It’s Thorn”, and boy band pioneers New Kids on the Block strike it big with their album, “Hangin’ Tough”.

In Michigan football, Bo Schembechler’s 21^stMichigan team opens the 1989 season with a #1 vs #2 showdown against Notre Dame in Ann Arbor.  On a dreary, rainy September day, Michigan outplays the defending National Champions but the Irish still prevail 24-19 on the strength of two Raghib Ismail kickoff returns; leaving fans to this day wondering, “Why the {BLEEP} did we kick to Rocket Ismail again?!!”  Michigan would go on to win the remainder of their games that season, including a 28-18 victory over Ohio that clinched the outright Big 10 title and Michigan’s 10^thRose Bowl berth under Bo.  The ’89 Wolverines featured All-American safety Tripp Welborne on defense.  The offense was lead by quarterback Michael Taylor along with what is arguably the best backfield in Michigan history in tailbacks Tony Boles and Leroy Hoard and fullback Jarrod Bunch.

The Ohio victory and conference championship proves bittersweet when fans and alumni are shocked in mid-December with Coach Schembechler announcing that the 1990 Rose Bowl would be his last game as head coach.  Stating that “Giving up my football team is the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do”, a teary-eyed Schembechler names Assistant Coach Gary Moeller his successor.  Schembechler’s coaching career ends on a sour, but not unfamiliar, note when the #3 ranked Wolverines are defeated by the #12 ranked USC Trojans 17-10 in the Rose Bowl.  Bo’s last team finishes 10-2 and ranked 7^th.  After 21 years as Michigan’s head coach, Bo leaves as the winningest coach in program history with a record of 194-48-5, accruing 13 Big 10 titles, 2 Rose Bowl titles, and 10 Rose Bowl appearances, and 17 bowl appearances overall.

While one coaching dynasty was coming to an end in 1989, another was gaining steam.  The 1988-89 Wolverine Hockey team posted their second straight winning season under Coach Red Berenson.  The team, lead by All-American defenseman Myles O’Connor, finished the season 22-15-4 overall and 17-11-4 (4^thplace) in the CCHA.  The Wolverines also picked up the first of 13 Great Lakes Invitational titles under Berenson, defeating the Fighting Sioux of North Dakota.  While Berenson's program was still two seasons away from returning to NCAA Tournament play, Red makes one of Michigan hockeys most enduring contributions by introducing the winged helmet as part of the team's uniform on the eve of the CCHA playoffs, a design cue that seems impossible for hockey to go without today.

The 1988-89 Michigan basketball team starts the season expecting to compete for the Big 10 conference championship.  Lead by Coach Bill Frieder, the Wolverines feature a talented roster that includes seniors Glen Rice, Mark Hughes, and Mike Griffin, as well juniors Loy Vaught, Rumeal Robinson, Terry Mills, and Sean Higgins.  The Wolverines have a solid but underwhelming season finishing 24-7 and 12-6 in conference, 3^rdbehind Indiana and Illinois and ranked 10^thin the polls.  Entering the tournament, Michigan is a 3 seed in the Southeast Region and expectations are modest. 

Michigan’s chances in the tournament seemingly take a turn for the worse when, days before the opening round, Coach Frieder is dismissed by Michigan Athletic Director Bo Schembechler.  Upon learning that Frieder has accepted the job at Arizona State, Schembechler canonically declares, “A Michigan Man will coach Michigan” and installs Steve Fischer as interim coach.  Inspired by fiery pep talks from Schembechler and record setting scoring by Rice, Michigan wins games against Xavier, South Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia to earn a spot in the Final Four.  In the semi-final Michigan upsets 1 seed Illinois 83-81, forever earning the ire of the Illini and cementing Michigan as Illinois’ main rival, unbeknownst to most Michigan fans.  In the finals, Michigan battles Seton Hall to an 80-79 overtime win, the final margin being provided by two free throws from Robinson with just seconds to play, earning Michigan its first National Championship ever in basketball and Glen Rice is named the tournament Most Outstanding Player.

The 1989 Michigan basketball team was considered to be a group of talented underachievers heading into the NCAA Tournament, only to finally have all the pieces fall into place and go on an epic tournament run.  Many comparisons have been made between this years squad and that historic bunch.  With the conference championship just slipping through our grasp and our post-season journey about to begin, let us hope that the Wolverines of 2013 find some of the magic that struck in 1989.  Go Blue.

A cursory glance doesn't reveal many similarities between Michigan basketball and Michigan hockey these days. After all, one team took the court this weekend with a share of the B1G title on the line and fans that lined up something like 22 hours before tip-off. The other team took the ice this weekend with no title on the line and not even a live televised feed of their games. 

Take a closer look, though, and some broad similarities appear. Basketball and hockey are both games of runs. It's just the way the game goes when there are no pre-established offensive and defensive turns. You hit and you'll get hit back. You exert pressure and that pressure will eventually be exerted on you. Michigan basketball ended on the wrong side of a run, suffering a knockout punch that was one part bad luck and two parts missed opportunity. Michgan hockey, on the other hand, survived the inevitable pressure Northern Michign exerted after Michigan took a 3-0 lead.  

A 3-0 first period lead wasn't something the Wolverines could rest on. Too many times this season they've taken an early lead only to be swept away by the undertow of another team's run, late goals and late pressure that were too much to overcome. With their postseason hanging in the balance Michigan responded on Friday, doing what was sufficient and holding serve in the third period to weather the storm and in the process made that dim glimmer of hope we hold that Michigan can extend its NCAA tournament streak to 23 consecutive seasons a little brighter.

1st Period

I'll try to get a GBGA of Saturday's game up....sometime. Not sure when, but I'm working on it. Look forward to more pictures, more laughs, and most importantly moooooooooore goals.

(Burke photo cred: Julian Gonzalez, Detroit Free Press)

REVISITING AP POLL BEHAVIOR: HOW MICHIGAN FARED             

We’re quite used to following the polls week after week around here, but now that it has been about two months since I last did this and the regular season has come to an end, I thought it might be of some interest to revisit some of the trends in the AP poll voting.

SUMMARY TABLE:

Even though we are #6 in the AP Poll right now, you can see from the summary statistics that we averaged higher in individual voting throughout the season, and that a good portion of those votes fell within a relatively narrow range of values. That would tend to speak to our performance being seen as extremely good overall, if nothing else, at least by the voters in the poll.

You will note from the graph of average rankings below that we reached our zenith in the ranking (#1) in the Week 13 poll on January 28^th. At that point, we were 19-1, coming off the win against Illinois in Champaign.  After this, of course, we went 6-5 for the remainder of the season, and you can see the steady decline save for a spike at Week 17, which was the February 25^thpoll. At this point, we were 23-4 and coming off wins against Illinois and Penn State at Crisler. I was working visually off of the schedule to compile this (so hopefully the record week-to-week is accurate), but it should show give you an idea of the sensitivity of the poll’s results to our performance.

Not including the Preseason, of course, the remaining 18 weeks of polling saw 11 weeks where we experienced in upward movement in our average and 7 weeks of a downward turn. What is interesting here, of course, is that the average movement of, well, the average in the weeks of upward movement was 0.83, and the average downward turn was -1.47. I only did this calculation for Michigan, but it would be interesting to do the same analysis for other teams.

MORE DATA AND STUFF:

Here is what the total votes per rank looked like for us in the regular season -

It is interesting to see it this way - following the weeks in isolation, I don't think we get the sense of what this trend actually looks like, but it looks pretty good as the largest numbers of votes over the course of the season went to 2nd and 3rd place in the poll (if it were a running history and not a snapshot).

Here are the percentages of the grand total by poll ranking. As you'll see, nearly half of the votes cast for Michigan in 19 polls were for 2nd and 3rd place. Really, the same essential information as above, but a slightly different way to see how we stacked up across all the polls.

Here's the running average ranking for each week. Sadly, you can see February on this one, but considering that we maintained an overall average rank in the raw voting totals of 3.97, it doesn't seem as bad as it might look here.

Here are the weekly distributions in isolation. Apologies for the somewhat varied scaling on these.

Exhausting, I know.

IN SUMMARY:

As I mentioned, some of this has been seen on the blog before, but in isolation, like the weekly poll itself. The idea here was to take the whole body of data and see how Michigan fared in the entirety of the AP voting, and hopefully you agree that we did not do too badly for ourselves at all when looking at it like that.