Diaries

[Ed-S: This series has now reached the Bump Stage. Part I is here.]

"I have never considered leaving Oregon a mistake," [Borges] says. "I consider going to Cal a mistake."

That is a quote from a November 2004 Seattle Times article about former Bellotti assistants. The article is largely about Borges, and is a pretty good read.

Al Borges left UCLA for a $50,000 raise, a two-year contract, and the opportunity to be the OC for the first D1-A program that gave him a shot as an assistant (1982 season).  Born in Salinas, CA, Cal is pretty close to home for Al and must have had a special place in his heart.  That special place led him down a deep, dark tunnel.

Whatever his reasons, Borges headed back to Cal...but it didn't last long.  Tom Holmoe had been the HC at Cal since 1997.  He had been a pro football player, and had coached under Bill Walsh and George Seifert, winning a superbowl as the DB coach for the 49ers in 1994.  In 1996, he became the DC for Cal under HC Steve Mariucci.  Quite a coaching tree, that.

When Mariucci left for the 49ers in 1997, Holmoe got the HC job.  It appeared to be a perfect match.  But the Bears were bad news, and went 3-8, 5-6, 4-7*, and 3-8 the next four years, and won a total of nine Pac-10 games during that span.  And oh, the asterisk.  It turns out that in 1999 a teacher retroactively added football players to a class to keep them eligible, and the athletic department knew it.  Cal forfeited all four of their wins from the '99 season, got hit with five years probation, and lost nine scholarships over four years.

This was the mess Borges walked into.  This is where you have to wonder if $50,000 is enough.

The schedule was brutal--ranked 4th in SOS--and the team was bad.  Holmoe, a defensive coach, allowed a brutal 39.2 pts/gm (6th worst) and resigned after eight games--all losses.  The offense wasn't much better under Borges:

Those numbers equated to 18.3 pts/gm (#90 nationally) and exactly one win in eleven attempts.  It is notable that the QB that season was third-year starter Kyle Boller, who posted a 110.3 rating and a 49.1% completion rate.  Tedford would turn Boller into a winner in 2002, but Borges was fired with the rest of the Cal staff.

Jobless, Borges was also obviously desperate, since he accepted an offer from Gerry DiNardo to be Indiana's OC in 2002.  Bellotti interviewed Borges for the Oregon OC job, but Borges took the offer from DiNardo, and left the west coast for the first time in his D1-A coaching career.

This is a long way from UCLA

After a stint at Vanderbilt, Gerry Dinardo turned around LSU.  Before DiNardo's hire in 1995, the Tigers had suffered six straight losing seasons and had not been ranked in the AP Poll since 1989.  DiNardo had immediate success, going to a bowl game in his first season where he beat  Michigan State--coached by Nick Saban.  '96 was even better--LSU finished the season ranked #12--and 1997 was magical, beating #1 Florida and thumping Notre Dame (after losing to them during the season) in the Independence Bowl.  But then he sucked ('98-99), and Saban took over.  We know how that ended.

After a year in the XFL as the HC of the Birmingham Thunderbolts, DiNardo took the HC job at Indiana in 2002, and he snapped-up Al Borges.  DiNardo was an offensive-minded coach, having been a QB, and an OC at Colorado (including when they won the National Championship in 1990).  He had been in college football coaching since 1975 when he got his start at the University of Maine.  But, Indiana.

The Hoosiers were bad, and Borges could do nothing about it.  In his first season as OC under DiNardo, Borges led the offense to 21.5 pts/gm (95th nationally) despite a pretty easy schedule (#52 SOS).  Here's the breakdown:

Actually, one could make a good argument that Indiana's passing offense was better than it should have been.  The O-line was bad, and QB Gibran Hamdan--who had the unenviable task of replacing Antwaan Randle-El--spent a good chunk of the season on the turf.  Despite that, the Hoosiers managed over 3,000 passing yards and had two WRs with over 50 catches.  Courtney Roby had 59 recs and 1039 yards.

2003 brought in a new QB.  Matt LoVecchio had transferred from Notre Dame, and had to sit out in 2002.  As it turns out, there's a reason he left ND: he wasn't very good (he had actually transferred after a disastrous performance against Oregon State in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl).  LoVecchio threw 3 TDs and 9 INTs.  No, I did not get that backwards.  The Hoosiers would sink to 14.8 pts/gm and manage only two wins.  Here is the evidence, and it is damning:

I'll go into more statistical analysis in Part III, but this was Borges' most run-heavy offense to date both in terms of percentage of plays and percetage of yards.  I guess that's what you do when your QB throws more INTs than TDs by a 3:1 ratio.  Courtney Roby's amazing-ness wasn't even enough to get the passing offense going, and he did not have a single TD catch (there were only four by anyone).  BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the starting RB, but split carries with two other guys, all of whom averaged over 4 yards/carry.  DiNardo would last one more season at Indiana.  Borges wouldn't stick around for it.

Tuberville, I'm going to mind-trick you into hiring me from Indiana

How that performance gets you a job at Auburn, I'm really not sure.  But that's what happened.  In 2004, Tommy Tuberville had to replace Hugh Nall.  After nearly being replaeced by Bobby Petrino in a secret coup (no joke, this is the SEC, after all), Tuberville had to make some changes, and Borges won the job.  Auburn was coming off a disappointing 8-5 season, and Tuberville was definitely in a win-or-go-home situation.

Well, 2004 was a magical season for the Tigers.  Scoring 32.1 pts/gm (#18 nationally, #1 SEC) in the SEC is a good accomplishment.  Coaching a QB to a 172.9 rating the year after he posted a 132.6?  WOW.  Jason Campbell was a talented player, and Borges seemed to get the best out of him.  Averaging an absurd 10.0 yds/att with a 69.6% completion rate and 20/7 TD/INT, Jason Campbell earned himself a first-round trip to the NFL.  Numbers:

The Tigers went undefeated and beat VaTech in the Sugar Bowl, but that wasn't the National Championship game.  Unbeatens USC and Oklahoma played a boring game in which the Trojans dimantled the Sooners, and Auburn fans will forever bitch (I don't blame them).

Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown split carries and produced a combined 2,078 yards on the ground, and also pulled-in 55 catches for another 465 yards through the air.  The leading WR--Courtney Taylor--had just 43 catches for 737 yards.  It was Borges' most run-heavy offense (beating his 2003 total) by percetage of plays (not yards) and with good reason: he had two of the best RBs in the game.

The famed "Gulf Coast Offense" had the country buzzing about Borges, and his name was being thrown around for head coaching positions, including at San Diege State.  Yes, 2004 truly was a magical season for Auburn and Al.  The magic would never be repeated.

The 2005 Tigers had lost their QB and two starting RBs.  Their 2002 recruiting class had been strong (one 5* and nine 4*), but their fortune had been steadily declining since then, and the '04 class brought just four 4* players and 15 players with 2* or less.  There was still talent at Auburn, but Tuberville wasn't recruiting as well, and the talent was trending downward.

Starting QB Brandon Cox was a four-star recruit and had some skills.  Kenny Irons had transferred from South Carolina after growing frustrated with his role in Lou Holtz's offense, taking his four-star talent to Auburn.  Five-star Ben Obomanu was in his senior season.  And, while the offense took a step back, it wasn't bad at all--32.2 pts/gm actually bested the previous season's average (though the rank dropped to #30, still #1 SEC) and the Tigers went 9-3, with a shocking opening season loss to Georgia Tech, a 3-point squeaker to LSU, and a tough loss to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl.  Here are the numbers:

This was an extremely successful running game.  In fact, it was a half-yard better per carry than the 2004 version, and Kenny Irons did most of the work, racking-up 1,293 yards and 13 TDs on 256 carries.  Brandon Cox finished with a 132.6 rating, and no receiver had more than 33 catches or 494 yards.  This was a good, balanced offense, but it didn't have Campbell, Williams, and Brown.  It was, for the second consecutive year, the #1 scoring offense in the SEC.  And for his good work without the departed stars, Borges was named the Rivals 2005 OC of the Year.

For whatever reason, things started to head south in 2006.  Certainly, recruiting was part of the problem, as Auburn's 2004 class was pretty thin (but the 2006 class would be very, very good).  Also, the strength of schedule jumped to #22 from #55.  There is no doubt that the O-line play suffered, but that alone doesn't explain a drop to 24.8 pts/gm (#56) when you are returning your starting QB and RB.  Here are the numbers:

Brandon Cox did see his rating rise a bit to 138.7, and passing game improved in yards/att.  But the running game was not as strong, and three RBs got at least 50 carries, including freshman Ben Tate.  Courtney Taylor reprised his role as leading receiver with 54 catches for 704 yards and 2 TDs.

2007 would be Al's last at Auburn.  His fall from grace would include bad QB play (Cox's rating dropped to 116.0, mostly due to a 9/13 TD/INT).  With Kenny Irons gone to the NFL, Ben Tate took over as the lead RB.  Courtney Taylor had also been drafted.  The schedule got even tougher, moving up to #13.  It's worth noting that SOS probably underrates SEC teams, since they beat each other up so badly.  That said, a loss to USF in week two followed by a stunner against unranked Mississippi State were unforgiveable, even though the Tigers upset #4 Florida and beat hated rival Alabama.  Borges would resign before the Chick-Fil-A Bowl victory over Clemson.

The problem for Borges wasn't just the drop in efficiency--the offense scored 24.2 pts/gm (#85)--but also the great defense.  Auburn allowed just 16.9 pts/gm, good for #6 in the country, and their defense kept them in every game save a 25 point loss to Georgia.  The offense had almost 900 plays and sputtered along at just 4.90 yds/play.  That is not good. The ground game had four rushers with over 200 yards, but limped along in yards/carry.  Rodgeriqus Smith led the receivers with 52 catches for 705 yards and 5 TDs, but there was no Robin to his Batman.

In short: Borges probably deserved to be fired.  He wouldn't be hired again until a guy named Brady Hoke called from San Diego State.

The secret of steel has always carried with it a mystery. You must learn its riddle, Conan. You must learn its discipline. For no one - no one in this world can you trust. Not men, not women, not beasts. [Points to sword]. This you can trust.

-Conan’s Father, Conan the Barbarian

I loves me some prognosticationatin. Sure, Its imperfect and makes you look like a daggum moran when you’re wrong which is the majority of the time. Even when you’re right, folks will just ask you to do it again, and then again before they even consider listening to you next time. Heads: you’re wrong; Tails: you’re lucky. And its nowhere near a fair coin. Bloody infidels. You’re left with the choice of making peace with being considered either a fool or a crackpot. Its almost all downside. The prudent thing to do is just wait for things to play out and slap hands when things go well.

Maybe so, left brain, maybe so… But [screw] that. This is the internet for Pete’s sake. If you cant be wrong here, then what is it good for???  And everyone thinks we’re a crackpot already. Oh noes, another jerk I’ve never met thinks I’m an idiot. Woe is us. I pray my fragile psyche will some day recover from the indignation that is internet shame.

Aren’t we here to have fun? Isn’t it more fun to invest internet cache in a prophecy and see if you’re right. Its a simple social contract pick a side and to victors go the spoils of watching the losers eat crow. Even those who aren’t as in-your-face about it all…they know. They know they were right and the others were wrong. There is nothing sweeter than being able to say “I told you so” even when you choose not to say it. Its about that which is best in life: to crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their bloggers. Indeed.

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Last week my man Ron Utah had the onions to put out a diary that set the stage for Devin Gardner to the best QB in history next season. Damn near guaranteed it. Relax Ronnie; I keed, I keed. Devin put up a 160 passer rating against solid competition over a 5 game stretch. I think its safe to assume he could up good or better performances against Air Force, UMass, Purdue, and Illinois. Five games of data isn’t exactly nothing but it’s not a whole lot either.

This is a topic that is near and dear to my heart. Prior to the 2010 season I spent a lot of time studying Quarterback statistics and progression in an effort to get some insight into what would be reasonable and maybe not so reasonable to expect to see that coming season. Over the course of those writings I made a bunch of prognostications on various QBs relevant to Michigan that year. I’ll suppress the desire to assess each statement player by player in this space but I’m pretty proud of those pretty specific predictions.  I was wrong about Ricky Stanzi, but I claim everyone else as a prediction of reasonable to uncanny accuracy or uncallable. I’m claiming a 10 right, 1 wrong, and 5 no calls. Word. /appeal for authority

White Rainbow Reprised

Anyway, I’ll get back to Devin in a minute but I need to lay some groundwork down first. Gots to hit ‘em with a…

Chart. Actually, four charts. These are the components of Passer Rating. The data is compiled from 951 QB seasons from 2003 to 2012. The point is to show the relationship between each factor and the overall rating. The interception rate chart is interesting because the slope hooks up when you start dropping below 100. That makes sense because sometimes when you suck, you really really suck and your foes all go hyuk ‘cause they hate you…or something like that. Just remember to switch lines down there.

The the high quality fits present here are no surprise: passer rating is a linear mathematical equation. But, these fits are useful because we can use them to evaluate how “legitimate” a given player’s performance was. For example, Denard Robinson’s 2010 Passer Rating was 149. Typical components for that rating are shown in the second line of the table below, his actual values are shown in the first line. Denard’s Completion percentage was inline with his final rating but everything else was either slightly out of whack (TD%) or WAAAY out of whack (YPA, INT%).

A reasonable cynic would say: so what; it counts. Indeed and we should make no apologies. But understanding these gaps helps us understand if there are any areas of improvement or if a guy is overly dependant on big plays and such. This was exactly the case with Denard in 2010. Remember all those “Oh, wide open” seam throws he made to Roundtree that year? Those big plays were generated by the offensive scheme and the threat he posed as a runner, not by the threat he posed as a passer. So, when the scheme went away, so did his performance. When an opponent was able to neuter his running threat, the offense sputtered. Capice?

What’s Your Rainbow Got To Do With Me?

Finally we get to Devin. Devin posted an overall passer rating of 161.7 in the 5 games he played QB in last year. His stats illustrate the “White Rainbow” Effect of the Passer Rating formula beautifully. None of the components were typical of that passer rating, the great cancels out the terrible and we end up with a number that doesn’t quite mean anything in and of itself.

Devin’s completion percentage was fine, but nothing special really. His INT rate was flat out terrible, better than Denard’s but that's not saying a whole lot. This isn't a surprise given the fact the Devin had never seen significant PT at QB and then spent spring, summer, and damn near two thirds of the season practicing at WR. Those numbers are inline with reasonable expectations given his circumstances. Actually, he probably out performed reasonable expectations given those circumstances and the inferable information that comes along with a position switch.

On the other hand the TD rate and YPA numbers are both ridiculous. In fact, they’re so ridiculous that given the context of the other two components, they reek of unrepeatability. AhOOOOga! Dive! Dive! Dive! [Everything starts shaking.] WHAT THE [HECK] IS HAPPENING!?!?

Relax, that’s just the mean reversion alarm. I’m reprising a chart I’ve previously discussed in this space which shows the mean reversion effect in a forecast able format. This chart suggests that we should look for Devin to register a legit 145 in passer rating next year. Uh, that’s a damn fine rating, folks. Here’s a stat line about your QB that you just might like:

Sure, that’s not the 3600 yds and 33 TDs Ronnie promised but its not 15 INTs either. That level of performance is typical of a seasoned veteran QB and given Devin’s performance last season it’s totally reasonable to expect him to perform at this level. If he were to underperform that expectation the world would not end but I’d be disappointed. If he over performs then gravy. This is the reasonable and prudent outlook for Devin Gardner’s performance for this coming season.

---

Reasonable. Prudent. Pfft, those words suck. They aren’t sexy at all. They aren’t fun. They’re words Brady Hoke would use to describe Notre Dame. A seasoned veteran QB will do in a pinch but I want to plan on hearing the lamentations of all of those that oppose us. No, to lay those plans we need a monster. We need an expectation that we’ll have a performer at QB that will dominate. We need what Ron Utah has promised us. Surely there must be a way to construct a plausible expectation for domination given the data available. Indeed, but we need some abstract thinking. Shamalong to the right side of knowledge.

What if those numbers for YPA and TD rate weren’t an accident and are actually evidence of elite playmaking ability. Numbers like those are  characteristic of system, support, or flat out skillz; usually a combination of the three.

System: We’ve seen what system can do for a player. We need look no further than Denard Robinson. In RichRod’s system Denard rated out at about 150, in a more typical system he rated out 20 points lower. In Devin’s case, he’ll be playing in a familiar system with more time to learn and refine his understanding. Borges will be able to game plan around a playing style he’s more experienced with and I see no threat to Devin’s performance being affected because of system factors next year.

Support: A quarterback can benefit from the players around him. I submit freshman Chad Henne. Having Braylon Edwards to throw to and Mike Hart around certainly helped his numbers. That O-line wasn’t too shabby either. So the question is: did Devin’s numbers get a boost from the players around him that will suddenly not be there anymore? The receiving corps returns mostly intact and as much as I enjoyed Roy Roundtree as a player, I don't think he was a transcendent talent that cant be replaced by Chesson and/or Darboh. Who is to say that they wont be better?

As to support from the running game, again I don't think there was anything there that made opposing defenses think twice. Michigan was aiight running the ball last season. Fitz’s production seemed to pick up when Devin stepped in for Denard but then he got injured so its tough to say if that's a trend or not. Here again, support from the running game should at the very least stay where it was and maybe it picks up a bit.

Finally, the offensive line. Michigan loses some solid players but retains its best player. Also, some high powered recruits from Hoke first few recruiting classes may finally be ready to contribute even if its just to add depth. It’s possible that the o-line could be touch weaker with the addition of new blood but I have no idea how to gauge that. I’m not going to worry about it.

In terms of support, Devin should have everything he needs and maybe even have an overall better receiving corps and stronger running game.

Skillz: Everyone around these parts know Devin Gardner was a high high level recruit. Once he got to campus and we saw him in Spring Games it was like, well, not that great and when he got moved to wide receiver last year I, for one, kind of convinced myself that maybe he was just another talented athlete with poorly developed QB skills. But, the numbers he put up when given extended playing time, while rusty, against not to be scoffed at defenses…jeepers. Maybe Scout was onto something when they gave him that 5th Star.

Its not crazy to think that Devin Gardner is that good. He might just be a monster. The only thing that prevents anyone from saying that confidently is sample size. So, as is my way, I try to look into the future by looking into the past. What does Devin Gardner the Monster look like?

Yeah, baby. Lather up. Dennis Dixon. Troy Smith. Vince Young. What’s up with all those guys wearing #10 anyway? What’s up with all those guys murdering my team? Whatevs, Devin Gardner the monster looks like Michigan’s Revenge.

See, the only thing that makes this a difficult thing to believe is that posting a 160 passer rating is a difficult thing to do. But, its possible and what fundamental reason is there to say that Devin lacks the wherewithal to post that type of performance in the coming season? Depending on which set of assumptions hold, Devin will be either a really good QB or a devastating one.

If Al Borges says Devin plays like RGIII, I believe him.

SPARTYCAN'T

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Yeah, we're gonna have some fun with this.  Look for the arc to continue next week.  

I'd be remiss if I didn't use tomorrow's Friday Fun to take one last parting shot at Gordon Gee.  Look for it on Twitter tomorrow morning!!http://www.theblockhams.com/2013/06/spartycant.html

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In the recent B1G interview, Al Borges sounded a lot like a man who had just been freed from prison.  That prison, of course, was coaching one of the most dynamic players in Michigan history and NCAA's all-time leading rusher at QB.

What's clear from the interview is that Al is giddier than Heiko watching a bubble screen at the thought of running "his" offense with predominantly "his" players.  But, what the hell does that mean?  In Part I (of three), I'll give Al's background and coaching career through his time at UCLA.  Like most of my diaries, it's long, but if you want to know Al's football past, it's thorough.

So, let's go back, waaaaaaay, back...

Al Borges started coaching football at Salinas High School in 1975.  He was 19-years-old.  He didn't get his bachelor's degree in physical education until 1981.  This is a guy who has always been a football coach, and always wanted to be a football coach.

After six years working as a HS assistant, Al moved into the college ranks as an assitant at Cal, but only spent one season there--probably unpaid.  His first big break (if you call it that) came at Diablo Valley College, a two-year community college in California's Bay Area.

FYI: This is not the Big House

After spending two years as the Tight ends/receivers coach (1983-84), Al got his first job as OC.  Obviously, Diablo Valley College--which seemed destined to have a cool mascot like the "Blood Devils" or something, but ended-up with the "Vikings" and a green/white (gross) color scheme--didn't pay well, since Al worked part-time as a defensive assistant for the USFL's Oakland Invaders.  The USFL, if you're wondering WTF that stands for, was the United States Football League--a pro football league that played in the spring and early summer, because in the '80's we didn't have message boards to keep us busy in the off-season.

In any event, in 1985, Al Borges was the OC for the Diablo Valley College Vikings, and he must have been pretty good at it, since Portland State hired him to do the same job in 1986.  Maybe he felt comfortable with the mascot--the Portland State Vikings.

Portland State is a Division II school that was wildly successful, in a Buffalo Bills kind of way, during Borges' time there.  While Al and HC Pokey Allen (no, I did not make-up that name) were building the program in 1986, the Vikings went 6-5 and scored 288 pts (26.2/gm).  In '87 and '88, Borges and Allen led one of the most successful teams in DII history, putting up 406 and 474 pts (29.0 and 31.6/gm) and reaching the DII Finals both years, only to lose.  As good as those teams were, Borges' last two offenses would best them--scoring 471 and 502 pts in '91 and '92 to average 33.6 and 38.6 pts/gm in his final two seasons with Portland State.  Sadlly, both seasons ended in semi-final losses in the DII playoffs.  Pokey's work was good enough to get him inducted into the Oregon Sports HOF.  Which is pretty good, I guess.

Al then followed Pokey to Boise State, where the move to Division I-AA took its toll.  Their first season they were 3-8 and managed to score only 210 pts.  By year two their system was humming again, and they went 13-2 and scored 433 pts (28.9/gm) on their way to the I-AA Finals...which they lost.

Tired of second place trophies and ready for D1-A football, Al took an offer to become Oregon's OC in 1995.  Al had big shoes to fill--he was taking over for Mike Bellotti (who had been promoted to HC).  The Ducks would go 9-3 in Bellotti's first year as HC, and scored 326 pts (27.2/gm, #39 nationally) on their way to #18 ranking by AP.  And here's where we get our first statistics:

Under Bellotti, Borges was decidedly pass-heavy.  And it's not like their passing game was that great.  Tony Graziani was in his first year as a starter, and posted an underwhelming 110.95 rating with 13 TDs and 10 INTs.  He averaged only 6.1 yds/att.  The ground game was even worse, averaging a paltry 3.5 yds/carry, with the leading rusher (Ricky Whittle) getting most of the work and finishing the season with 1021 yards.

But Borges must have done something right, because he was offered the OC job at UCLA, which, at the time, was kind of a big deal.  And there was obviously no bad blood between Borges and Bellotti, since Bellotti would later try to bring Borges back as OC (Borges had alread accepted the Indiana [wtf?!] job).

At UCLA, Borges earned his reputation as a QB guru and pretty-darn-good OC.  Working under HC Bob Toledo (now the OC at SDSU), Borges had another lackluster opening season, going 5-6 (though they did beat USC).  The offense averaged a very respectable 30.0 pts/gm (#30).  Here are the numbers:

The starting QB was Cade McNown, and he wasn't very good at it.  McNown finished the season with a 115.24 rating, throwing for 2424 yards, 12 TDs, and 16 INTs.  His 52.4% completion rate and 7.2 yds/att weren't so good either.  Primary RB Skip Hicks carried the ball 224 times for 1034 yards--a 4.62 avg--and scored 17 TDs.  

1997 was a different story altogether, and could be labeled as Al's "coming out party."  McNown had been the goat of the '96 team (justifiably so) and no one expected much of him in his third year as a starter (he was bad in '95 too).  Skip Hicks was still the starting RB.  But UCLA would go 10-2, and finish the season as Co-Champs of the Pac-10, beat Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, and end-up with a #5 ranking in the AP poll.  Again, the numbers:

Remember, QB sacks count as rushing yards for some unexplainable reason, so a 4.00 yd/play rushing average is pretty bangin'.  Hicks averaged 5.0 yds/carry on his way to 1282 rushing yards and 22 TDs.  McNown averaged 10.0 yds/att, threw 24 TDs, and only 6 INTs while he racked-up a 166.0 (!) rating.  To put that in perspective, that would have been the fifth highest-rated QB in 2012.

The best part of that '97 team?  39.8 pts/gm (#3) with only two losses: an opening defensive stinker (lost 34-37 to WaSU) followed by a 24-30 stumble against Tennessee, who finished ranked #3 in '97 with a guy named Peyton Manning.  That game--against a very good Tennessee defense--was the lowest output of the season, which included a 66-3 win over Texas in week 3.  Also of note, two WRs--Jim McElroy and Danny Farmer--combined for 88 (47%) of the team's 189 catches and 1,637 yards (51%).  

They managed all of this with the 6th-toughest schedule in the country (SRS).

1998 was a near carbon copy.  Finishing 10-2 and outright champs of the Pac-10, the Bruins' passing game was stellar again in McNown's final season.  While the season did end with a disappointing 31-38 loss to Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and a #8 AP ranking, UCLA pumped out 39.7 pts/gm (#5) and had very good numbers:

McNown would finish third in Heisman voting, posting another monster season with 3130 passing yards, 23/10 TD/INT, 9.7 yd/att, and a 156.9 rating.  But Borges deviated from his "workhorse back" pattern in a big way: the top three rushers had 635, 503, and 420 yards each.  The top guy--Deshaun Foster--was a freshman who wasn't quite ready for the complexities of the position, but was darn good (5.5 yds/carry).  While Borges prefers a workhorse back, 1998 proved he could adjust for a talented freshman.

In 1998, the Bruins' schedule was rated the 5th-toughest (SRS).

1999 is probably a year Al would like to forget.  Losing McNown and saddled with a terrible O-line, the Bruins could neither run nor pass effectively.  Cory Paus started most of the season at QB, but Drew Bennett and even Ryan McCann stole some reps as none of these dupes could run the offense.  UCLA stumbled to 20.9 pts/gm (#90) and went 4-7.  In this case, the numbers don't lie:

Not much to say here, except that everyone sucked.  Deshaun Foster's sophomore season was plagued not only by the aforementioned terrible O-line, but also a sprained ankle and ended with just 375 yards and 3.4 yards/carry.  Paus was awful; his 107.8 rating is one of the worst for a Borges QB.  They were just really, really bad.  The lone bright spot was a freshman WR named Freddie Mitchell, who had 38 catches for 533 yards, but not a single TD.

2000 was a step up, but certainly not a return to glory.  The Bruins would finish 6-6 and lose to B1G nemesis Wisconsin 21-20 in the Sun Bowl.  Paus and McCann once again shared the QB job, and the O-line was still not very good.  UCLA managed 29.4 pts/gm (#40), although their SOS was rated #1.  Again, the numbers tell the story:

An anemic running game--even with Deshaun Foster as the workhorse back--made it tough for the Bruins to have any offensive success.  Foster spent the season running for his life behind another bad O-line, and the QB play was shaky at best (though Paus did finish with a solid 145.7 rating in his second year starting for Al).  Freddie Mitchell caught 68 passes for 1314 yards and 8 TDs, with a 19.3 yds/rec.  He and fellow WR Brian Poli-Dixon caught 114 (58%) of the 198 completions and accounted for 2014 (69%!!!) of the receiving yards.

It was a so-so season at UCLA, and it would be Al's last.

Since Da’Shawn Hand is the topic of the last 24 hours, I thought I would share my experience. A friend of mine is his position coach.  He got Da’Shawn as a freshman and has worked with him to help him become what he is today.  Now my friend John Harris, is passionate about his job. Any guy that is still cool with you after you date his sister is a good guy.  His goal in life is to get kids into college.  In the years he’s been coaching, I have seen him work just as hard for his D-III kids as he has worked for Da’Shawn.  DH is an unbelievable kid.  He’s intelligent and mature and is a happy, fun guy.  He doesn’t smoke or drink, doesn’t get involved with the wrong crowds.  His idea of a good time?  Him and his cousin lifting and watching film.  He’s a hard worker, he doesn’t read the stuff written about him, he just focuses on dominating at the next camp, and his final season.

John, knowing I was a Michigan fan, asked me to drive into the depths of hell for The Game. I warned him that I was going to wear a “HAIL” shirt.  We negotiated, that I would not wear it in the facilities, but out on the field only.  These terms were agreed upon and accepted. We get there, and the police were non-cooperative with the coaches, and we ended up parking a mile away and having to walk to the stadium.  It was cold as shit too btw.  The coaches (except Urban) were walking around, talking to all of the recruits.  I’d like to say this, despite the stupidity of Jeremy @ 11W, Da’Shawn isn’t an attention whore. He understood that Ohio was playing in their bowl game, and the coaches were busy.  Even still, the coaches made it a point to take us down to talk to Urban.  I couldn’t help but show him my shirt and he laughed.  I told him I was rooting for him when Florida beat Ohio in the NC game, and he smirked, and said “we really took it to those guys huh?” (He also mentioned that he was approached by Brandon for the UM job)

Walked out to the stadium, in front of the student section and of course they all screamed and yelled at me as is expected from Ohio fans. Da’Shawn and his cousin were sitting with Jalen Hurd (who is going to be a stud btw).  Everyone around me was very cool, we all had fun joking with each other, and no one was disrespectful.  I was the only person in the whole section, standing with my hands in the air when Denard broke through that “tackle” on his long td run.  In the second half, they left and went back inside and I watched the rest of the game.  Without getting into too much of what really happened, they hung out with a few players and I don’t think they got along well.  Kinda like meeting someone and thinking “ehh…I don’t need to be their friend.”  And as Da’Shawn has stated, when you have EVERY school in the country fighting for you, you have to nitpick to eliminate them.  On the ride home, I didn’t talk bad about Ohio, but I did have the UM fight song on repeat, and I did talk mention a few things about the school.  So in March, we went up to UM for a visit. 

As a fan, this was unreal to me, to have the opportunity to see what it’s like having the red carpet rolled out.  I am originally from Michigan, but I went to U of Richmond…but to see how the school presented themselves made me proud.  ALL of the coaches were cool, they all took time to speak with him.  There was a huge focus on academics and for a smart kid like that, he was very interested. Brady Hoke is one of the coolest, down to earth people I have ever met.  Mattison did his Ray Lewis dance for Hand, with Beyonce in the background.  He also knew more than a few Rihanna songs.  Lewan and Hand had a good talk, Devin was around (and has a magnificent singing voice btw…singing the Victors) .  One thing John and Hand noticed was how after practice (it was the first day of spring ball) the players hung out around the field.  No one was in a rush to leave, they chatted, they talked to Mrs. Hoke and Mrs. Mattison, hung out with the coaches, Brandon, and the other recruits.  The “family” atmosphere…is very very real.  Ferns came out just to hang out with Da’Shawn too, and they hung out with some players that night. Denard was there (getting worked out by the Patriots) and they had a good talk as well.  And seeing his eyes when he walked through the tunnel into Michigan Stadium was priceless. 

Now as far as the future goes, I couldn’t tell you where he ends up, I can tell you he enjoyed Michigan and hated Ohio and that’s good enough for me.

Last Monday (June 3), the Michigan baseball program secured its second commit in the 2015 class, Nick Azar, a 6-3, 205-lb. shortstop out of Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett High School. He joins Charlie Donovan (Hello post) in that class.

Source: MLive.

Info on Azar is limited. Prep Baseball Report, which doesn't currently have him in their top 10 for the state of Michigan in 2015, posted this brief bit in a recruiting rundown:

Nick Azar, SS, Univ. Liggett HS, 2015- Azar is an outstanding hockey player in addition to his baseball abilities. Azar becomes the fourth commitment in the state from the Class of 2015. He still has a ways to go in terms of polish but he stands at 6-foot-3, 205-pounds and has solid tools. Azar committed to Michigan on Monday.

Liggett is playing Concord tomorrow in an MHSAA Division 4 state tournament quarterfinal. The bracket for that division can found here.

In Division 1 (bracket here), four of the eight teams remaining feature Michigan signees or commits on their rosters. Bay City Western (Brett Adcock) faces Rockford, Temperance Bedford (Jackson Lamb) plays Howell, and U-D Jesuit (T.J. Shook and Harrison Wenson) is matched up against Sterling Heights Stevenson (Brandon Hughes).

2014 Michigan commit Drew Lugbauer helped lead Arlington to the New York state semifinals. MSG Varsity has a rundown and highlights of the team's loss in the semis, including an interview with Lugbauer.

Last month, a local Toledo-area newspaper called The Press published a nice feature article on another 2014 commit, Jayce Vancena—Michigan-bound Vancena: "Work hard, stay humble." Here's an excerpt:

“Michigan was always my No. 1 the whole time, and once they did that, I knew I didn’t want to wait, I knew I wanted to be a Michigan Wolverine,” continues Jayce. “I’ve been up to Ann Arbor a couple of times now to meet the coaches and players, and they’ve been awesome. The baseball field is just beautiful up there, the locker room is awesome, and they have an academic hall that has tutors in every subject…just for the athletes. That is what is so great about it. It’s all academics first, and baseball second.

“Out of all the players I’ve met, the one that stands out the most is fifth-year senior Ben Ballentine,” offers Vancena. “He’s just another one of those guys who loves the game of baseball and just plays it with so much heart and passion. That’s the way I try to be. I’m still the same guy who goes out to the mound every game, and plays with all of my heart and passion. I work hard to give my best effort every time I’m out there. I haven’t changed at all.

“I’ve been a Michigan fan my whole life, I’ve bled maize and blue since the day I was born, and that day Michigan offered me a scholarship…it showed me that all of my hard work over the years had really paid off to help me achieve my lifelong dream of playing college baseball,” he concludes.

Finally, I'm throwing this item in as well, even though it's not strictly about recruiting. Chris Webb of the B1G Baseball blog spoke to Erik Bakich earlier today and got some good insight into future Michigan baseball scheduling, specifically some big-name additions for 2014 and beyond.

The 2014 schedule is highlighted by a three-game set against the Houston Cougars during the second weekend of the season. After playing in the Lone Star State Michigan heads to the Irish Classic hosted by Notre Dame where such elite programs as UCLA and NC State, both participants in the 2013 College World Series, have committed to play. Michigan’s Big Ten bye week will flip in 2014, instead of occurring at the beginning of the conference schedule the Wolverines end the regular season with a bye which features a visit from Kansas.

2015 tentatively features a return visit to Kansas, a series against Oklahoma State in Ann Arbor, a season opener at Pepperdine, and a trip to Gainesville for a series versus Florida. Tentative plans for 2016 include a season-opening series at North Carolina and a return visit to Oklahoma State.