I did a quick watch of the Air Force vs. Michigan film after getting home from the game and here are my observations and a few comments:

1.) This was Wilton Speight's best game this season. He has shown improvement in each of the games he's played so far. He was 14/23 and by my count, there was 2 drops, 5 overthrows (which I'll talk about in a second) and then two other ones where there isn't much to talk about. The 2 drops were crucial, one by Black and one by Crawford. Both were great throws on 3rd down where the receiver got two hands on it that could've extended a drive and instead they were drops. If those two are caught Michigan could've scored more points and at least, Speight's completion percentage would've been 70% instead of 60%. As for the overthrows, this sounds pitiful, but the misses were much, much closer than in the past. 3 of the 5 misses were barely, barely off the mark. He's so close to everything clicking. Of the other two, both were footwork. One he had no chance to move his feet, about to be hit and forced to throw off his back foot. The other was just sloppy footwork. 

2.) Defense is still elite. Air Force is a bizarre team to play, plain and simple. The triple option is hard to cover but UM did a handsome job. One long QB run was it. Air Force runs it 27 of 29 plays and then runs a slant, Kinnell bites just a bit and the receiver is gone. If you want to think about it one way, they gave up 2 plays for 100 yards and 57 plays for 132 yards. Overall, 232 yards allowed and 13 points, not too shabby. They end non conference play having given up 3 points to Florida (deducting the pick sixes), 14 to Cincy, and 13 to Air Force, meaning 10 ppg. This is a top 5 defense in the country, folks. 

3.) Special teams are really good. Not so sure about our punter so far, but the punt and kick coverage units are stellar, Quin Nordin is one bad man, and DPJ is a freak of nature. DPJ is just as good as Peppers in terms of picking up those key invisible yards on punts, the 10 and 15 yard returns that hugely impact field position. He's a weapon and we need to see more of him on offense

4.) OLine was mostly alright. Air Force blitzed a lot and they struggled at times to pick it up. Still having problems with pull plays and stunts, but it's a work in progress. At the very least it's not a sieve. Onwenu, Ulizio, Kugler all first time starters, of course. 

Conclusion: This team reminds me a lot of 2013 Michigan State. Throughout the early part of the season, the situation was similar. An offense that dealt with major problems (albeit far worse ones than Michigan has, seriously), but a defense that was among the best in the nation, and a really good special teams unit. Even through the sluggish games in September, you just knew that if the offense figured it out, the team would be really tough to beat. Well, in late October, the offense figured it out, and the team wouldn't lose again, including a B1G title and a Rose Bowl win. Same thing here with Michigan. Special teams and a dominant defense is going to let this team win a lot of these early season games against lesser teams. And let me get this straight: if this offense can, at any time, put it together, then this team will be very, very hard to beat, by anyone. 

And honestly, I think this offense is close. WR's are still struggling to get open, but we've rushed for over 190 yards in every game this season. This is not an offense like Florida or early 2013 MSU, where they just can't move the ball. This team can move the ball. Unfortunately, it's just in spurts and it freezes when we get in the Red Zone. But the thing to remember is that this team. Is. Still. Young. We're three weeks into the season. If it's after the Indiana game and Michigan still can't finish drives, then we should sound the alarm. But let's give them 3 more weeks + a bye to smooth things out. We don't have to click in September, but we do have to click in late October. So let's just wait and see, take the positives out of this and hopefully, it all comes together next week against Purdue.

Oh, and one last note about Speight: he is the right guy for this team. His experience is very valuable and as a I always say, everyone criticizes him (and rightly so) for the throws he misses, but no one gives him credit for the ones he makes. Like to Black and Eubanks against Florida. Like to Crawford last week. Like the one to Black on the sideline this week, or the one that Crawford dropped even as Speight dodged two dudes and fired a bullet down the field. You have to take him through the good times and the bad times. As this site has noted, he's basically John Navarre. And if that means we'll end the season beating OSU, winning the B1G, and going to the Rose Bowl, then that's alright with me. We've seen who John O'Korn is, against Florida this year and Indiana last year. He's terrible. The last thing this team needs is a full on QB controversy. Instead, let's ride Speight, as it's the only way he can right the ship. Speight's working with a new set of dudes and he deserves a chance to keep grinding and trying to find consistency. 

A win's a win, 3-0, and on to Purdue 

   Expectations

“There was a gay fiction among us that we were constantly enjoying ourselves, and a skeleton truth that we never did. To the best of my belief, our case was in the last aspect a rather common one.”

- Pip (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)   

Overall Wins Spin Up

What a difference a week makes! The fancy-stats algorithms spit out slightly more meaningful analyses based on the objective (if not deterministic) statistics generated from actual game play. With each passing week the ratings volatility lessens - and like football teams, the biggest difference is between week one and week two. Well, I admit I just pulled that out of my butt, but it  has a certain truthiness quality, so I’m going with it. Coming up with reasons for ignoring these early season statistics is left as an exercise for the reader in the comments below. But first, it’s necessary to publicize the statistics such as they are.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

Since we’re still in the midst of the glorious non-conference segment of the season, the analysis here examines the overall schedules including OOC games - the breakdowns for in-conference schedules will kick in after Week 3 after most OOC games have been played.

Also note that in the following table of schedules, the applied Red-Green color-map accentuates the forecast point spreads and win probability of each game. A color-shift toward the red corresponds to a more likely loss, and a green shift indicates a more likely win. Also, the colors for both columns are mapped to the win probability number. The sequence of individual win probabilities over the course of a team’s schedule are then used to compute the distribution of total expected wins for the entire season.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ week 2 ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+ Results

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ week 2 ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

It appears that the love affair between S&P+ and the Buckeyes continues, although not as hot and heavy as it was just one short week ago. S&P+ still seems somewhat smitten with our beloved Wolverines, such that this dalliance with the Buckeyes may not go beyond a weekend fling after the Bucks screwed the Boomer Sooner pooch. What a fickle friend is fancy stats! Carrying over from last week however is the the fact that OSU remains favored in all of its remaining games, albeit by a razor thin margin when it visits Ann Arbor. Such are the makings of a very exciting and competitive regular season race.

The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece. Three others - Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland - are on the bubble of bowl eligibility, each underdogs in five of their remaining games. Last and least, of course, is LOLRutgerz – underdogs in all of its remaining FBS games - maintains its rigor mortis-like grip on the bottom slot.

In the aggregate, however, Penn State leads the B1GE at about 9.9 expected wins, a mere 0.35 wins ahead of OSU and 0.4 ahead of Michigan. PSU maintains a better position in terms of the lumpiness of its distribution, in that most of its loss likelihood is lumped into a single game - at Ohio State – but a loss in that game may doom PSU’s B1GCG chances. Meanwhile, Michigan’s loss likelihood is spread nearly evenly over its 3 toughest games: at Penn State, at Wisconsin and Ohio State.

FPI Results

The FPI results differs considerably from those of S&P+, the most notable difference that Ohio State is favored by more than one score in all its remaining games. Yet, OSU drops into a virtual tie with PSU for the B1GE lead with 10 expected wins. FPI results now show U-M pulling up a bit short of 8.5 expected wins. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece and all by greater than one-score margins. FPI has the same teams on the bowl-eligibility bubble, just in a different order: Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz can be left for dead.

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank shows yet another scenario in which Penn State leads in total expected wins, with OSU and Michigan deadlocked at 8.88 expected wins. What’s even more exciting is that no team is favored in all of its remaining games, and Michigan is favored over OSU by a whopping margin of 0.4 points. Unfortunately, UM remains an underdog to PSU and Wisconsin, and PSU is an underdog to OSU, which would put the Buckeyes into the B1GCG.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last multiline plot (bottom right) is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+ Results

This round of S&P+ distributions show a veritable logjam at the top among the three contenders. All three occupy the same 10-win mode. Both OSU and UM lean strongly toward 9 wins, while PSU leans slightly toward 11 wins. The key exception is that one of OSU’s losses is already known to be OOC, which works to their advantage. The next opportunity for Michigan to effect any significant shift in its mode will be in its matchup with Indiana, the week before it goes head-to-head with Penn State in Happy Valley. As of now, the likelihoods of Michigan and PSU winning out stands at at about 3.5% and 7%, respectively. Of course, the likelihood of OSU having an undefeated season is 0%.

Likewise, Indiana and Sparty have very similar S&P+ distributions, excpet Indiana has a mode of 6 wins, while Sparty pops up to the 7-win mode. The Terps pull up to the 5-win mode.

FPI Results

The FPI results show graphically how Michigan drops about 1.5 expected wins behind the leaders OSU and PSU, who both share the 10-win mode. Michigan just tilts upward to the 9-win mode. The OSU distribution also shows a very tight variance, which means its loss components are smaller and concentrated in fewer games than most other teams. Yet, PSU holds 7% chance of winning out, whereas Michigan’s chances of doing the same are negligibly small.

From there, a 2 win gap separates the next closest team, Maryland, at the 7-win mode. Indiana and Sparty lag one behind at the 6-win mode, with the Hoosiers leaning toward 7 wins, and Sparty leaning toward 5 wins.

Power Rank Results

Meanwhile, in the B1GE, the Power Rank predicts the tightest race of the three ratings. PSU shows a slight edge in leaning up to the 10-win mode with a 4% chance of winning out. UM and OSU are both balanced at the 9-win mode, with the Wolverines having less than 2% chance of winning out. Meanwhile, all three bubble teams are crowded into the 6-win mode, with Indiana the only team leaning toward 7 wins.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

S&P+ Results

In the B1G West, the S&P+ results show the Badgers maintaining a strangle-hold on the top position and in sense are in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. Indeed, the Badgers are the only team in the West expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup being when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. Indeed, Michigan is the only Wisconsin opponent that is less than a one-score underdog. At that point, however, the Badgers may well have already locked up its bid to Indy. With a margin in excess of 3 expected wins over the next closest competitors, now Minnesota and Iowa, an invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion. When considering the Badger’s schedule, term “cake walk” comes to mind. In fact, if one looks up the term “cake walk” in the dictionary:

cake·walk
ˈkākˌwôk/
noun

informal. An absurdly or surprisingly easy task, such as the Wisconsin Badgers 2017 NCAA football schedule. "winning the B1GW title should be a cakewalk"

Meanwhile, Iowa and Minnesota are both within one expected win of Nebraska and Northwestern, which makes for a very full bubble of teams vying for bowl eligibility. Worth noting are a couple of teams that appear to be percolating up from the bottom - Illinois and Purdue - suggesting that recent coaching changes may precipitate a change in the status quo.

FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers maintaining an even tighter strangle-hold on the top position than does S&P+, with 10.3 expected wins. With a margin excess of 3.0 wins over next-best Iowa, the Badgers only risk may be stooping to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by a one score margin. The Gophers lag the Hawkeyes by another 0.3 at 7.0 expected wins, with Northwestern and Nebraska closing out the bubble teams. Holding down the bottom are Purdue and Illinois.

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank results for the B1G West also show the Badgers at the top with 9.4 expected wins, but their lead is by a much more competitive margin of 1.3 expected wins over next-best Iowa. As with the other ratings, PR expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, where it is favored by less than one score. The Badgers next toughest game will be the season-ender at Minnesota. The Gophers lag the Hawkeyes by another 0.2 at 8.0 expected wins, with Northwestern and Nebraska closing out the bubble teams.

B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions

S&P+ Results

This chart graphically illustrates the separation between the Badgers and the next tier of teams, who would appear to be contending more for a quality bowl invitation than for the B1GW title. The Badgers come in at the 10-win mode, with a strong lean towad the 11-win mode. Iowa and Minnesota have nearly indistinguishable distributions with 7-win modes leaning slightly toward 6 wins. A game back from there are Nebraska and Northwestern.

Wisconsin has the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at nearly 11%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

FPI Results

FPI is another example of the Badgers’ separation from the B1GW competition, just with a bit more emphasis. FPI has the Badgers in an 11-win mode, the next-best being Iowa and Minnesota with 7-win modes, with Iowa leaning slightly toward 8 wins. From there, the Huskers and Wildcats both occupy the 6-win mode. Wisconsin has the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at 15%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Power Rank Results

Meanwhile, the Power Rank predicts a much more competitive B1GW race. PR has the Badgers in a 10-win mode, leaning strongly toward 9-wins. This leaves the door open for next-best being Iowa and Minnesota who both have balanced 8-win modes. From there, the Huskers and Wildcats both occupy the 6-win mode, but the Cats have a strong lean toward 7 wins, while the Huskers lean more toward 5 wins. Wisconsin still has the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at 4.5%, just edging out PSU chances. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

Power Rank Results

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

It's the last official weekend of summer - and by golly it'll feel like it! High pressure will move into Ohio for Saturday keeping us dry with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will run above normal for this time of year, and you'll only want the long sleeves early in the morning and late at night. To everyone who has or is serving our country, we can never thank you enough! C'mon blue!  

Tailgating

We'll have a quiet, calm, and cool start to the day. You may want to give yourself an extra minute or two on the roads heading to your fav spot as we'll have some fog. If you're up and at 'em early temps will be runnning around 60 degrees with a light wind, generally out of the south. As we approach the later morning hours, we'll be up around 70 with just a couple of clouds in the sky. You may want to put on some sunscreen before heading through the gates, especially if your seats are in full sun.    

Kickoff

75 degrees and beautiful to start this game! We'll have plenty of sun and very light winds out of the SSE - around 5mph (just enough to rustle some leaves). Really can't ask for much more than this in mid-September!   

Halftime

Cold drinks anyone? Particularly if you're in the sun, it's a warm afternoon for us! At least your nacho cheese won't be cold by the time you get back to your seat haha! Hitting 80 for the halftime show - I'm sure anyone dressed as a dinosaur last week is happy not to be melting in that this Saturday! Winds remain light, around 5-7mph, out of the SSE.  

Post-Game

That fantastic weather will continue as you leave the game! Just a couple of clouds here and there as temps top out in the low 80s. We'll have a light breeze continuing out of the SSE through the dinner-time hours before it lightens. Want to go to dinner but left your sweatshirt at the tailgate? No worries - we'll still be hanging on to mid 70s at 7pm. You may want it for that late-night celebration though - we finally fall back to the mid 60s by 10pm, and then to 60 by that last call. Mainly clear skies will continue overnight with light winds. Let's go blue!! 

 

Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

This is the second installment of a weekly diary to extend through the non-conference season (and be rebooted for bowl season), detailing how each of the conferences are fairing against external foes. It shall be called "Conference Pride" which is "partial satire" on those who would chant something such as, oh, I don't know, "SEC! SEC! SEC!" when their 7-5 team wins the Music City Bowl. I’ll start with the season-to-date records of each conference along with their marquee wins/bad losses of the week, move on to a summary recap and finish with my opinion of the current “Power Rankings”. View last week’s version here.

 

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ACC

Non-Conference Record: 15-7 (0.682); 4-6 (0.400) vs. Power 5

• vs. Big Ten: 2-2
• vs. Big 12: 1-0
• vs. PAC 12: 0-1
• vs. SEC: 1-3
• vs. Non-Power 5: 13-1

 

Marquee Wins (Week 2):

• Duke 41, Northwestern 17 (Durham, NC)
  • Northwestern took a 3-0 lead. After that, this game was a merciless blowout. Pretty encouraging win for Cutcliffe's squad considering they entered as an underdog. Duke also turned the tide; Northwestern came to Durham having won three in a row and 8 out of 9 against the Blue Devils in a series that has been played surprisingly frequently since the late 1990s. With Duke's next two games against 0-2 Baylor and 0-2 rival UNC, they have a significant chance to enter a September 29th home showdown with Miami (YTM) with a 4-0 record bolstered by three P5 wins.     
• #3 Clemson 14, #13 Auburn 6 (Clemson, SC)  
  • A high profile non-conference win over a top half SEC team is a good way to keep the defending national champions rolling. Their offense didn't look great, but the defense appears to be stronger than expected.     

Bad Losses (Week 2):

• Middle Tennessee State 30, Syracuse 23 (Syracuse, NY)
  • Not much else to say besides: yikes. The Orange are no football school, but it's not a great way to start Year 2 for Dino Babers. 

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Big Ten

Non-Conference Record: 20-6 (0.769); 6-5 (0.545) vs. Power 5

• vs. ACC: 2-2 
• vs. Big 12: 2-1
• vs. PAC 12: 1-2
• vs. SEC: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 14-1

 

Marquee Wins (Week 2):

• Minnesota 48, Oregon State 14 (Corvallis, OR)
  • Yes, Oregon State is likely the worst team in the PAC 12 (although the Arizona schools may have something to say about that before it's all said and done). However, for a program of Minnesota's caliber, winning by 34 points in a true road night game against a P5 foe is plenty impressive. Watch out for a potential ranked Little Brown Jug matchup in Ann Arbor; the Gophers' September and October schedules are the easiest in the Big Ten (before a brutal November). Therefore, if the Gophers come to Ann Arbor at 7-1 or 8-0 we could have ourselves a hyped up Harbaugh-Fleck debut.

Bad Losses (Week 2):

• #5 Oklahoma 31, #2 Ohio State 16 (Columbus, OH)
  • OSU entered as touchdown favorites and left with their tail between their legs and a controversial flag spiked into their turf. A loss in and of itself wouldn't be considered "bad" (well, maybe by Buckeye standards), but this was OSU's largest margin in a home loss since 1999 and the game wasn't even as close as the score indicates. 
• Eastern Michigan 16, Rutgers 13 (Piscataway, NJ)
  • Rutgers continues to be an embarassement, snapping the Big Ten's undefeated streak vs. EMU and giving the conference its only loss to a non-P5 school thus far this season. #RelegateRutgers
• Duke 41, Northwestern 17 (Durham, NC)
  • So much for being sleeper picks to win the Big Ten West, huh? Northwestern looks headed for a potentially rough year (they also struggled until deep in the 4th with Nevada in Week 1). Compounding the grim outlook are seemingly improved Purdue and Illinois squads, who may not automatically resign themselves to the bottom two spots in the West again. 

 

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Big 12

Non-Conference Record: 14-6 (0.700); 2-3 vs. Power 5 (0.400)

• vs. ACC: 0-1
• vs. Big Ten: 1-2
• vs. PAC 12: N/A
• vs. SEC: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 12-3

 

Marquee Wins (Week 2):

• #5 Oklahoma 31, #2 Ohio State 16 (Columbus, OH)
  • Oklahoma holds the best win of any school thus far this season in the non-conference: a true-road thrashing of the Big Ten's premier program. Mayfield looks like the only serious threat to unseat Lamar Jackson in NYC and the Sooners are early favorites to represent the Big 12 in the CFP, after the conference missed playing in two of the first three rounds. 
• #23 TCU 28, Arkansas 7 (Fayetteville, AR)
  • The Horned Frogs of Fort Worth paid back their historic SW Conference rivals in a big way. After last year's contest ended in double overtime confetti for the Hogs, this year's contest was an uncompetitive snoozer. 

Bad Losses (Week 2):

• Central Michigan 45, Kansas 27 (Lawrence, KS)
  • Yay for Shane Morris. I wonder when Kansas will finally disband their football program after all these years of shame? Another 1-11 season appears highly likely, unless they beat Texas again (which...maybe?). 
• UT-San Antonio 17, Baylor 10 (Waco, TX)
  • I imagine a lonely, new headcoach Rhule got home Saturday night and sheepishly said, "Alexa, play 'Free Fallin'' by Tom Petty" to his Echo Dot. 

 

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PAC 12

Non-Conference Record: 19-4 (0.826); 5-1 vs. Power 5 (0.833)

• vs. ACC: 1-0
• vs. Big Ten: 2-1
• vs. Big 12: N/A
• vs. SEC: 1-0
• vs. Independents: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 14-3

 

Marquee Wins (Week 2):

• None
  • The 2017 version of the Cornhuskers is far removed from its vintage 90s form; moreover, the Ducks failed to cover the spread at home and nearly allowed a comeback after a 21-0 Nebraska run. That game had "Notre Dame-Texas 2016" written all over it. Washington State did have a miraculous (and lucky) comeback; however, as heavy home favorites, it was an avoidance of disaster rather than a triumph. 

Bad Losses (Week 2):

• Houston 19, Arizona 16 (Tucson, AZ)
  • Great win for Houston and their fans, especially in the wake of their head coach leaving. For Rich Rod, the pressure will rise as an increasingly restless Wildcat fanbase loses patience. Arizona figures to only be a favorite in one PAC 12 game this season (at home against Oregon State on November, 11th); a 2-7 or worse conference record seems fairly likely. 
• San Diego State 30, Arizona State 20 (Tempe, AZ)
  • Things haven't been going much better for the rivals up the road in Tempe. Both head coaches could be facing mutiny by the time we reach the Duel in the Desert game on November 25th. 

 

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SEC

Non-Conference Record: 21-4 (0.840); 5-4 vs. Power 5 (0.556)

• vs. ACC: 3-1 
• vs. Big Ten: 0-1
• vs. Big 12: 0-1
• vs. PAC 12: 0-1
• vs. Independents: 2-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 16-0 

 

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• None
  • Only 3/14 SEC schools played Power 5 opponents in Week 2. Two of them lost and the other won by 1 point in a neutral site*** South Bend game against a team likely to finish 7-5 at best. Sorry Dawgs, you don't get marquee credit for barely edging a very down Irish team. (***Props to the traveling prowess of the road fans though)

Bad Losses (Week 1):

 

• #23 TCU 28, Arkansas 7 (Fayetteville, AR)
  • Bielema continues to be an overpaid embarassement. The Hogs can't afford to fire him and likely couldn't find a better coach anyways. I predict, as always, the Hogs will lose a bunch of SEC games that Bert will blame on "the toughest schedule in college football", but they'll notch a single semi-decent victory and only lose by two touchdowns to Bama to appease the fanbase for another offseason.

 

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Week 1 Power Rankings

T-1st: Big Ten, SEC

3rd: PAC 12

T-4th: ACC, Big 12

 

 

The results are in. On a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 is the worst you ever felt about a game and 100 is the best you ever felt, our 93 respondents averaged a 59.9. There was a reasonable amount of variation in responses – the standard deviation was 16.5 – but the most common response was 60, with only a couple handfuls of folks straying below a 40.

In technical terms, the crowd ranked this victory somewhere around warm milk – better than losing, but not much to get excited about, especially given how sloppy and uninspired the offense and special teams looked.

Figure One Cincinnati Feelings

The hive mind is more positive about the young season – the average feeling about the season this week is a 77.2. The clustering here was tighter; the standard deviation was 10.2 the median was 80, and only one wag reported a season rating of less than 60.

This seems pretty reasonable. On the one hand, Michigan is undefeated, has what will clearly be another great defense, and appears to have a plethora of young talent emerging on offense. On the other hand, Speight’s struggles, continuing concerns about the offensive line, and the knowledge that Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State will present stern challenges probably keeps this figure from getting much higher for now.

Figure Two: Feelings about the 2017 Season (for now)

 

Themes, Thoughts, and Trends
One of the things I’ve noticed over the years is how the tenor of board discussions often shifts after the post-game columns go up and the weekend’s full slate of games has been digested and analyzed. Translation: Brian has to talk a lot of us off the ledge when the torch and pitchfork brigades start forming, but he also uses, like, numbers and analysis, to provide a serious and thoughtful take on what’s happening.

This makes sense for many reasons. Most obviously, taking a reading of your emotional state right after a game is likely to lead to higher highs and lower lows than you would see after a few days, when logic kicks in. Secondly, as sociologists love to remind us, the interpretation of events is a collective process. We all look to others, especially experts and authorities, to help us make sense of things.

To test this hot take/cold take idea I compared the responses collected on Sunday to the responses from Monday and Tuesday. Confirming the strong emotions hypothesis, the hot take respondents recorded both the highest high for the game (100 compared to 90) and the lowest low (20 compared to 30).

The average distance between the hot and cold takes was also surprisingly large – at least to me. Sunday respondents (n = 53) averaged 57.8 for the game and 75.3 for the season, while later respondents (n = 40) averaged 62.5 for the game and 79.9 for the season. It appears that with a day or two of cooling off, the game didn’t seem as bad as it had in the immediate aftermath. It will be interesting to see if this hot/cold differential holds throughout the season and what direction it tends to take.

Figure Three: How Do You Take Your Takes?

Seasonal Trends

Sadly, I didn’t do a survey last week. But I think we can all agree that the collective feelz was a lot higher than 59.8 for the Florida game and that the irrational exuberance stoked by that curb stomping would have resulted in a season rating higher than 77.2 for most of us (it would have for me, certainly). In following weeks I will start reporting game-by-game comparisons and seasonal trends.

 

Let's get to know our upcoming opponent the Air Force Falcons!

http://www.goairforcefalcons.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/afa-m-footbl-mtt.html

Click on the player's name to bring up their picture. 

HINT:  Set width to 150 when posting the image.