Diaries

Michigan hung the heads of two teams this weekend [JD Scott]

OFFENSE

Analysis: This is another game where overall Corsi is not as relevant as either Close Corsi or House Chances. I charted the game on a re-watch, and it really became a game of errors. Michigan definitely created some chances, but they also took advantage of some major gaffes by BU.

Over the first half of the game or so, the Wolverines were able to get into the House with relative ease, as close to half of their attempts came from a desirable location. After the fluky Slaker goal gave Michigan the lead, they mostly went into prevent mode, and BU applied tons of pressure to tie the game. Michigan was happy to sacrifice chances on net for protection of their own net. This wasn’t the best offensive output of the season by any means, but it was reflective of the game that Michigan was playing.

Even so, Michigan missed a few golden chances to extend their lead and end the game. CHN had close corsi at 32-24, BU, which is way more reflective of how this game went. Hughes was the beneficiary of a goal in which all six BU participants stood in a parallel line. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. Warren’s hustle goal also came from a Plinko bounce off of the boards and Oettinger’s skate.

[After THE JUMP: shutdown defense, timely goaltending, and advantageous OMRs]

I did a fairly in depth diary previewing Texas A&M last week. Now that we're in the Final Four I wanted to do something similar for Loyola-Chicago. The preview I did for TAMU looked at their statistical profiles on KenPom and Torvik and also included some player previews and key takeaways. In all honesty, that's all covered pretty well and good by Brian/Ace/Seth/Alex/Dylan (UMHoops). Instead for Loyola, I wanted to look at their team at a high level, see what stands out about them and finally see how Michigan might be able to exploit Loyola differently than the teams who have already played them this tournament.

Season Info

• 32-5, 15-3 in the MVC, regular season and tournament champs
• 33rd on Torvik, 57th AdjO, 25th AdjD
• 30th on KenPom, 60th AdjO, 18th AdjD
• 1-1 in Q1 games before the torunament (W @ Florida, L @ Boise)

Team Profile - What Stands Out?

• Loyola's defense is its better side of the ball by a significant margin on both KenPom and Torvik. They do this mainly by being good at everything. They're top 60 nationally in the major defensive categories on Torvik except TO rate where they are 102nd, so still above average. The two things they are great at is not fouling (15th lowest FT rate in the nation) and 3 point D (26th best 3 point defense by percentage).
• As has been mentioned before, it's argued that the ability to prevent 3P shots from going up is the best indicator of a teams 3P defense. In that regard Loyola is pretty average at a 36.6% rate which puts them at 140th nationally. Hopefully this means their great 3P D is a little misleading and opportunities will be had.
• On Offense, Loyola is a team of extremes. Their eFG% is 5th nationally but they are dragged down by their inability to rebound offensively, get to the line and their very high TO rate. 
• Loyola's eFG% is so high because they are 10th nationally in both 2P and 3P shooting percentages. That being said, they only shoot 3's 35.8% of the time, which is good for the 214th highest rate in the nation. 
• Loyola plays with an AdjT of 65.2 possessions a game which is the 315th slowest tempo in the country. This matches Michigan who is at 64.5 and 326th nationally.
• According to KenPom they are the luckiest team left in the tournament at 20th nationally (Kansas is 21, Michigan is 65, Nova is 223). Luck here refers to the difference between a team's statistical profile and record, so Loyola is significantly out performing their statistical profile.
• Loyola this tournament has been playing 7 guys regularly in the rotation. They might throw out an 8th and a 9th guy for about 5 minutes a game each, but their starters plus two bench guys take up the majority of the minutes.
• Loyola only has one guy on their team taller than 6'6, RS Fr Cameron Krutwig who is 6'9. They have one 6'6 F and one 6'5 F and besides that everyone else is pretty much 6'3 or 6'4.  

How Does Michigan Differ From Loyola's Past Opponents

So right off the bat the obvious answer is Michigan's better. The best team Loyola has played has been Tennessee, 12th/13th on Torvik/KenPom compared to Michigan who is 7th on both. But ignoring that and going into specifics, what is different about Michigan from the teams Loyola has already played and how can Michigan use this to beat Loyola?

1. Size: As I mentioned above, Loyola is a pretty small team. Only one guy taller than 6'6 (6'9 Cameron Krutwig) and two more guys taller than 6'4. Surprisingly, every other team Loyola has played has been in the same mold. 

• Kansas State: Their best player 6'10 Dean Wade was out, so KSU had 6'9 Maikol Maiwen play 19 minutes and 6'8 Levi Stockard play 7. Everyone else was 6-5 or shorter.
• Nevada: 6'8 Elijah Foster played 3 minutes, everyone else was 6'7 or shorter.
• Tennessee: Starting C 6'11 Kyle Alexander missed the game, so they got 7 minutes from 6'9 Jordan Fulkerson and 18 minutes from 6'8 Derrick Walker. They had one other 6'7 player and everyone else was 6'5 or shorter.
• Miami: Only team to break this mold with a 6'9, 6'10 and 6'11 guy.

• So Loyola, except for the one game against Miami (who is 37th on KenPom so          significantly worse than us) to start the tournament, has not faced any real size. What they have faced has been small teams like their own or backup bigs as KSU    and Tennessee were down their starting 5's. Between Teske/Moe at the 5 and            Livers/Robinson at the 4, Michigan should have a big height advantage.

1. Perimeter Shooting From Bigs: This is related to the previous bullet but as said the only team with real size Loyola has faced is Miami. The rest of the teams were injured and small or just small. What size Loyola has faced, however, have been traditional bigs. They have yet to face a player like Moe who can stretch the floor from the 5. If you've seen Loyola play, the one big guy they have is very much a low post big. He's 6'9 260, his arms look like they're all fat, and this is after losing 30 pounds last year during his RS year. Having him play on the perimeter and run around following Moe is not what he's comfortable doing. This should be a big advantage for Michigan scoring on the perimeter but also to remove Loyola's minimal size from the paint and/or game and increase our own size advantage.
2. 3 Point Gap: The idea of Michigan trying to create a 3 point gap has been discussed a lot on this site. So far this tournament, Loyola has hit 30 3's on 42% shooting so far while their opponents have hit 3 26 3's on 29% shooting. As I said Loyola is not a team that tries to create a 3 point gap, and the same goes for all of their previous opponents. Loyola's previous opponents have been able to get 3 point shots up, they just haven't been hitting them (granted this is probably partially due to Loyola's D and the quality of those looks). As I described with the bigs above, Michigan should be more well equipped to get open 3's. If Michigan can hit these looks and put an emphasis on shutting down Loyola's 3 point attemps, which no other previous opponent has done, Michigan can win this 3 point gap again. 
3. Turnovers/Transition Points: One of Loyola's biggest weaknesses offensively is their propensity to turn the ball over. Every single player has a TO% of at least 14.5 and they are 214th nationally with a 18.9% TO rate. So far this tournament they have turned the ball over 51 times (12.75) to their opponents 39 (9.75 a game). The players with the two highest assist rates for Loyola have TO rates of 19% and 22%. To me this seems like a matchup where Z can force a lot of turnovers on their primary ball handlers and we can force a lot of live ball turnovers. This should lead to a lot of transition point opportunities for us. Loyola plays at a very slow tempo (comparable to ours), doesn't force turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over. This seems like a game where we should win the TO battle by more than the 3 TOs a game difference Loyola is currently at and thus have a substantial edge in transition points.
4. Health: I mentioned this breifly above, but Loyola has had some good luck with regards to their opponents' health. Miami was healthy when they played but Tennessee was down their starting C, Nevada has been missing their starting PG since early February, and KSU was missing their starting C and best player. The fact that we are healthy is a big advantage for us compared to their previous 4 opponents.

Cooper Marody played like a Hobey Baker finalist [James Coller]

OFFENSE

Analysis: Awesome. This was a wonderful output of offense from Michigan. The Wolverines consistently got into the House and created chances from all over the ice. While it was a tight game, the main reason that is stayed that way was Cayden Primeau. He made about 5-6 fantastic saves. Otherwise, there is a good chance Michigan hangs a couple more on the possession-starved Huskies.

The DMC line went head-to-head with the top scoring line in the country and hung a –3 on them. I’ll get more into the defense in the next section, but Cooper Marody danced throughout the offensive zone and connected with Calderone and Dancs on numerous occasions. Cooper’s first goal was a circling blind shot that snuck in short-side. Dancs added a soft goal to retake the lead, as he shot from a poor angle and was still able to deflect it off of Primeau and inside the far post. Marody’s game winner came from just outside the crease off of a deft dish from Tony Calderone, who had driven the wing and gotten to the goalline.

FWIW, the Slaker-Norris combination could have also had a couple of goals, themselves…including Norris missing a WIDE OPEN net from just under the dot. The Pastujovs-Becker line also created some havoc. Northeastern has a great scoring line, yet couldn’t always get them the puck in the offensive end. Michigan identified that and exploited it all night.

[After THE JUMP: come for the offense, stay for the defense (!). And special teams. And goaltending]

For those who don't listen regularly to WTKA or the podcasts, Sam Webb has been playing FB coach interviews in segments over the past few weeks - (I believe more is available behind the paywall.)

Lots of interesting stuff - particularly on the Defense where most of the coaches have worked with the players before.  I made list of the things I found interesting below:

D-Line -- Starters appear to (currently) be Chase, Aubrey/Brian, Dwumfor, and #98..some guy named Gary.  Sounds like backups are Paye, loser of Aubrey/Brian, Lo Marshall, and Kemp.  Others and notes - - Kemp working some a 3-tech (his request) up to 276,  Paye up to 256 from 225-230 coming in - from 2 separate comments.."He is STRONG".- D-I-Bey over 300 and looking good.  Jeter pushing 300 and coming back from the injury a bit stil.  Luigi back but stil recovering from his injury and surgery (news to me on the surgery part).  New kid (name?) can really run but is relatively new to football so this spring is all about learning for him.  Brian has been losing weight and GMat is on him to build his speed back to where it was post injury.  Paea was mentioned when Sam asked - he is up to around 280.

LBs - Don Brown sounded almost giddy when talking about this.  I believe the quote was "I am going to just sit back grinning like a Cheshire cat watching the competition.  Has never had a group like this.  Depth chart sounds like MLB - Bush, Anthony, Singleton WLB - Gil/Ross battle and Singleton.  Viper - Hudson and Glasgow with Furbush and Uche in the more traditional SAM role.  Singleton (as seen above) will get time at MLB and WLB to find him a place on the field.

CBs - Starters talked up then Watson ("last chance to show out to earn NFL looks") with Ambry and Ben St-J coming along.  Spyder Sims is Loooooong - whichwas a focus in the recruiting board based on the D they prefer to play.

D-In General -- Will add even more D-line wrinkles/play calls going into 2018.  Don wants to cut big pass plays (18-20 last year but stil very good in his words) by 7-8.  Feels biggest room for improvement is cutting explosive run plays.

Much less on Offense as WR, TE, and OL coaches haven't practiced with team yet.

OL - Not a ton but several coaches mentioned Hudson by name.

RB - Top 2 are clearly that going into Spring.  Kareem and O'Maury mentioned by both Harbaughs and sounds like they will battle for the 3rd RB spot.

QBs - JH noted that all 3 guys will be competing for the job and he likes them all.

General - Don Brown particulary noted the major use of analytics the staff is using.

Just thought I would share for those who haven't been listening in.  

Hello Plinko, my old friend death. [uscho.com]

After the Michigan preview, there will be a breakdown of the remaining seven games, starting with the opposite game in Michigan’s Regional. I’ve asked Adam and MGoHockeyReference Anthony Ciatti to give a take as well.

Probabilities. If you’re looking for some game-specific numbers, Ed Feng has released his predictions based upon his new rankings.

The Field

Northeast Regional

(3) Cornell, (8) Michigan, (9) Northeastern (13) Boston University: What a crazy regional for Michigan. Cornell ain’t played nobody never but has only given up 49 goals in 32 games. BU has more NHL talent than the Arizona Coyotes, but might be coached by Also Herm Edwards. Northeastern never has the puck but has two Hobey finalists and an ace freshman legacy goalie. So, they’re Notre Dame with goal-scorers. Oh, and the #3 and #4 seeds are playing in their backyard. What even. Can we do this, please? 

(8) Michigan vs (9) Northeastern

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Northeastern:

1. Stay Out of The Box. Every week, this is #1. In past weeks, its been a direct reflection of Michigan's penalty kill. While that is still the case, Northeastern has a top-3 power play. Gaudette, Sikura, and Stevens have a combined 35 of their 75 goals for the season on the man advantage. Yikes. Matching penalties can be acceptable, but giving the Huskies more than three power plays could easily mean a short return to the NCAA Tournament for the Wolverines.

2. Wisely Use the Last Change. Being the #2 seed instead of the #3 seed makes Michigan the 'home' team (yes, I am also laughing). Because of that, the Wolverines will get the last change. This could/would mean being able to match-up the Hughes/Cecconi pairing with Northeastern's version of the CCM line: Adam Gaudette, Dylan Sikura, and Nolan Stevens. While this could temper some of Hughes's ability to go forward, tell me two other defensive options that would be preferred on the ice against two Hobey Baker finalists. 

3. Win via Depth. Once you get past the top line for the Huskies, the scoring drops off rather suddenly; their fourth through sixth forwards have five, five, and seven goals on the season. The two post-DMC lines for Michigan aren't exactly explosive, but Slaker and Norris have had a productive second half. Also, the Pastujovs and Becker have turned up their output, as well. Given each team's possession rates, Michigan should be able to control the puck, and getting some depth-scoring will go a long way to offset Northeastern's top line.

Final Thoughts: Man, I don't know. This was the mid-seed that I was hoping to avoid. Northeastern has two Hobey Baker finalists, a top-5 freshman goalie, a wicked-awesome power play, and a ridiculous top line. They also have a poor possession rate, little scoring depth, and a weakish schedule. Michigan might have the more complete team, but Northeastern has higher peaks in key spots and looks like they might be a tough matchup for the Wolverines. If Lavigne plays towards his higher end, though, Michigan has a good chance...assuming they can keep the game at even strength.

Adam’s Take: Things look pretty bleak in some key spots for Michigan, but I think they've got just enough going their way to squeak out a win. As David mentioned, having the last change will help match top pair against top line; this isn't likely to neutralize one of the best top lines in the country, but there's comfort in putting out a solid pairing that features a defenseman who excels at playing keepaway. One caveat to my prediction: they only squeak out said win if they take fewer than three penalties. Michigan can probably kill one or two peanlties and use the second and third lines to make up the difference at even stregth, but more than three penalties and Northeastern creates a chasm Michigan can't bridge.

Anthony’s Take: I watched the Beanpot and came away thinking NU was a good team.  Their high-end talent and goaltending is something I hadn't seen a lot of this season and I did not want Michigan to draw them in the tourney. Northeastern is 16-4-4 since the start of December, so they are equally as hot as Michigan  They had a goal differential in conference of over 1.5 goals per game, and were best in their league in both goals for and against.

Obviously I think UM can win this game as it is a one-game knockout, but I would favor Northeastern. For Michigan to win they will have to avoid bad penalties and high-danger scoring chances. Northeastern has the special teams and goaltending advantage so that worries me. Unfortunately I think UM's achilles heel (PK and Goaltending) will be their demise here.

[Predictions for the rest of the field after THE JUMP]

it's the most wonderful time of the year [JD Scott]

This is the appropriate reaction to Plink-O. [wiki.com and cnn.com]

I wrote this last year. It is more or less what I will say now, but with a couple of things shifted and an update to 2018. All of the block quotes are highlights from my previous piece. Later on this week, I will have a Northeastern/overall 2018 tournament preview. Let’s begin:

What Could Have Happened in 2018:

Final Top 16 (PairWise plus Conference Tournament Winners):

1 St Cloud State
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4 Ohio State
5 Denver
6 Minnesota State
7 Providence
8 Michigan
9 Northeastern
10 Clarkson
11 Penn State
12 Minnesota-Duluth
13 Boston University
14 Princeton
15 Michigan Tech
16 Air Force

If we’re going to do Best-of-Three matchups at home sites, the format would follow the pattern of 1v16, 2v15, 3v14, 4v13, etc. We will need to take into account: 1.) no intra-conference matchups in the Round of 16 and 2.) travel costs versus bracket integrity.

Most of it seems fine. We’ll have to switch Penn State and Minn-Duluth, but the rest of it actually looks good, with a few already-close matchups. We could have St Cloud State and Notre Dame swap timeslots so that it's not as late in South Bend, but I’m guessing the Irish would rather be on national television. Obviously, there would still be an OCTO-BOX-esque RedZone channel, as well.

[After THE JUMP: what's broken and how to fix it]