chance of bowl: 13.6%
Not too bad of a football Saturday! A little windy, but we'll see some sunshine! Low pressure is off to the north in Canada, and after the warm front comes through Michigan overnight Friday, the cold front follows Saturday. It's a dry front, and although the first part of the day will be cloudy, the sun will break through, letting afternoon temps climb into the low 60s. Dress in layers if you'll be out tailgating for this one!
If you're traveling to East Lansing...
Good driving weather if you're up and at 'em early! After a period of clearing, clouds will build back in for the morning on Saturday. There may be a little drizzle here and there as the front passes, but if you do see rain, it won't be much. A bit chilly, with temps about 50 degrees and a southwesterly wind at 10 mph (small leaves and twigs blow about). The wind will turn more westerly throughout the morning, and pick up too. By mid-morning, we're up to the mid 50s with a lot of clouds still hanging with us. Around lunchtime, those clouds will go away and we'll see plenty of sunshine - so don't forget to grab those sunglasses before you head out to the tailgate! The clearing skies will let us warm up near 60 for the early afternoon. Winds will go up too though - staying out the west at a steady 15mph and gusting into the low 20s (small branches may sway, plastic garbage cans may tip over).
Some sun for the kickoff, with more and more of it throughout the first half. 63 degrees - and we'll hang on to that for the first quarter. Winds are still up at a steady 15/16mph with gusts in the low 20s, out of the west.
Still a great afternoon for us at the halfway point! Dropping just a tad to 62 degrees, with lots of blue skies. We'll keep the mostly clear skies through the end of the game, but even through the 4th quarter we'll stay relatively mild. The wind starts to ever so slowly become lighter - down to a steady 14mph, and we lose the gusts, staying out of the west.
If you're headed out to celebrate in the EL, you may want the extra layer. Clear skies have the temps falling into the mid 50s by the time you're leaving the game and grabbing dinner, and the low 50s in the late night. Staying out for last call? You'll definitely want the sweatshirt! Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s, but with a west wind staying at about 10mph, we'll add in a wind chill to make it feel like the upper 30s! Sunday will bring blue skies and highs of 60 degrees and west winds at about 10mph. Weather will be very similar in Ann Arbor, with the clouds taking a little longer to depart Saturday before sunshine, windy, and highs near 65. C'mon home Paul Bunyan!
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
As some of you know, I’m joining MGoBlog to provide various types of basketball coverage, now that we’re a #basketballschool and all that. A brief introduction: I’m an Honors LSA Senior majoring in English (hopefully with a creative writing sub-concentration), I grew up making weekly pilgrimages from the Grand Rapids area to Ann Arbor on Fall Saturdays with my parents—both of whom graduated from the B School before Ross slapped his name on it—and younger brother—an Honors LSA sophomore (who is also named Brian Cook). I am not related to the proprietor of this site, as far as he and I know. We were a football family, but I fell in love with Michigan Hoops in 2009-2010 with Manny, Peedi, Coach B, and the gang. I’ve learned to love the NBA recently as well, but regret that I missed the glory years of my Detroit Pistons. I’m a Lions masochist, I complain about the Tigers’ managing and bullpen all summer, and I recently committed to Everton as my new EPL team (because Tim Howard’s a national hero). It’s a little up in the air as of right now, but Ace and I will sort out who covers what during hoops season. As for non-sports things: I’m a proud native Michigander and spend my summers living on Barlow Lake—Heaven on Earth, as far as I’m considered—I run as quickly as Terrance Taylor and am addicted to Bruegger’s on North U (these things may be related), and if anybody wants to hire me to a full-time job after school, PLEASE DO. If you see me on campus, say hi. I’ll be the tall, skinny-fat guy with curly black hair and light blue headphones.
Follow me on Twitter ( @alexcook616 )
(Freshmen and incoming transfers are not included. They’re very difficult to accurately contextualize with returning players and they’ll be covered next week.)
* * *
For the Big Ten Player Comparisons, I created an algorithm that spits out the most similar statistical profiles for a given player’s. There are 20 unweighted categories—most of which are advanced metrics—but shooting and rebounding are well-accounted for. The database consists of 750 players from the 2008-2014 seasons. This post is already absurdly long, so I’ll have to explain it further at some other time. This system will probably be used pretty extensively.
Considering that the Hoosiers had Yogi Ferrell and Noah Vonleh—the latter was drafted in the lottery of a deep draft—their struggles were perplexing. A stable of uninspiring role players did little to augment the talents of their two stars and their offense was often stagnant and extremely turnover prone. Indiana didn’t shoot the ball well from the field, but the inability to hold onto the ball was crippling—IU finished 330th nationally in turnover rate, easily the last in the Big Ten. Ferrell can be best categorized as a scoring point guard: he’s ball-dominant and often probes the defense with his quickness rather than driving right to the rim, he’s one of the better shooters in the league (40% on a ridiculous 220 attempts, mostly from above the break), and he gets to the free throw line and shoots better than 80% from the stripe over his career. There were a few games that Yogi took over with his scoring ability: 30 points (on just 15 FGA) at Illinois, 27 (including 7 made threes) against Michigan and at Purdue, and 25 and 24 in two games against Wisconsin. With Indiana’s turnover issues and Ferrell’s role as its offensive catalyst, his turnover rate—18.0%—wasn’t ideal, but it wasn’t exactly anomalous amongst analogous point guards.
Yogi didn’t have the ball-security of a Jordan Taylor or Drew Neitzel, but it wasn’t bad. Turning the ball over was a collective effort: the entire rotation (aside from Ferrell) had turnover rates of at least 20%. Adding five-star combo guard James Blackmon, Jr. should help out immensely in regard to that issue and it should enable Ferrell to play off-the-ball and distribute a little more this season. Ferrell will likely be the best point guard in the Big Ten and there’s a chance that he could lead the league in scoring.
[After THE JUMP: Caris checks in, others.]
Big playmakers needed (Upchurch/MGoBlog)
1. The Defense
|Season||Expected Pts||Conversion Rate||Bonus Yards||Red Zone|
|2014 Nat’l Rank||97th||2nd||116th||96th|
Michigan State’s team has transformed its identity somewhat so far in 2014. The defense is still dominant and on a down by down basis, they are actually very elite. Over the last five seasons, only one team has held opposing offenses to less than 55% conversions. That team was 2011 National Champion Alabama who held offenses to an illegal in 49 states 42% first down conversion rate. This year both MSU and Louisville are below 55% half way through the season.
The flip side of the coin is that the offense is pushing the game to a much higher possession game, putting the defense in a position to allow a more points, by virtue of field position alone. The 29+ expected points allowed is pushing close to triple digit territory. This has produces some cosmetic changes to the traditional stats without implicating the defense, necessarily.
As confirmed by Ace in the FFFF, this year’s defensive unit is much more prone to allowing the big play. The last three seasons, the Spartan defense has been well below 2 yards per play allowed beyond the first down marker, all three top 10 results. This year they nearly find themselves on the wrong 10 list, ranking well into the triple digits.
What it means for Michigan
As bad as Michigan has been generating big plays, this is the game to throw the “identity” out the window. If Michigan plays for Time of Possession as a key outcome, they are nowhere near good enough to get past this Michigan State defense. If they can actually attempt to get the ball downfield, they could have a puncher’s chance of putting up more than 6 points on Saturday.
2. The Offense
|Season||Expected Pts||Conversion Rate||Bonus Yards||Red Zone|
|2014 Nat’l Rank||4th||10th||23rd||4th|
The flip side to 29 expected points allowed is the 34+ points expected for the offense. The magnitude may be higher than the traditional Dantonio field position stranglehold game plan, but the advantage is just as strong. Michigan State’s 5.2 point per game net advantage in field position is good for 14th nationally.
While the defense has driven its conversion rate allowed down to near record levels, the offense has made the same stride forward. After a pedestrian 62% conversion rate last season, this year’s squad has cracked the Top 10 and improved by over 10 percentage points. I may have been wrong about the Spartan offense this year. Thanks in large part to Tony Lippett, MSU has also been able to stretch the field. Tony Lippett has been worth over 7 points per game himself and is 6th overall among pass catchers in 2014.
What it means for Michigan
Not a lot of weaknesses on the surprisingly potent Spartan offense. Michigan’s defense has shown occasional signs of strength and will need its best performance of the season to keep the offense in the game. A couple of turnovers wouldn’t hurt either. If Jourdan Lewis and company can keep Lippett in check, there is a chance Michigan can slow down the Spartans.
3. Special Teams
Value added on the season (National Rank/B1G Rank)
Punt Team: +1.1 pts (59th/7th)
Punt Return: –3.0 (108/12)
Kickoff Return: +0.5 (54/8)
Kickoff: +6.1 (13/2)
FG/PAT: –1.6 (86/11)
Total: +3 (55/7)
Michigan State hasn’t displayed particular strength or weakness across their special teams. If the Spartans are able to open up a big play in the punt return game, it will be in area that MSU hasn’t found success to date.
4. The Fourth Quarter
Michigan State’s in-game win odds by game
One opportunity for Michigan could be Michigan State’s lack of competitive fourth quarter situations on the season. In their six wins, the Spartans have had less than 90% win odds for about 30 seconds late against Nebraska before picking off Tommy Armstrong Jr.
The same went for their loss against Oregon, when they quickly dropped into the low teens early in the fourth before seeing their odds slip away midway through the quarter. Whether something as abstract as “4th quarter experience” is a real thing that matters or not is a up for debate, but
5. Dumb Punt of the Week
Dumb punting a Michigan football may be the same thing. Michigan takes a bye and so does dumb punting. The best entry I could find for the week was Middle Tennessee punting on 4th and 3 at the UAB 36 in the fourth quarter. The Blue Raiders were up by 5 at the time, but a punt into the end zone isn’t valuable enough to forgo a virtual red zone trip with a successful conversion.
In this week’s roundtable, we all agreed Hoke hadn’t shown anything to indicate he could save his job. The “Win the Time of Possession” game plan will lose this game barring a massive turnover disparity. An aggressive game plan maximizing Michigan’s two best weapons (Funchess deep and Gardner’s legs) might have a chance. This Michigan State team is better at more things than they have been the last several seasons, but there is also a potential crack in the armor if Michigan isn’t too stubborn to exploit it.
Michigan State 28 Michigan 17
One theme I've read in a lot of CCs is one of age and duration. While in a perfect world of unicorns and rainbows we get a Bo/Bowden/Paterno/Bryant candidate this is definitely not the current reality of modern football. In fact there is only 1 (2*) coach of that ilk out there.
Most candidates will come with an issue of duration whether due to age (Miles being the obvious one) or outside interest (if Harbaugh comes here we will be subjected to Saban like NFL rumors every offseason). A unicorn candidate would be one that is relatively young, and did well - but not well enough to ever attract interest from the NFL or ...say Alabama. Heck even Kelly is getting NFL rumors. So I'd encourage us not to get so infatuated with the ideal of someone being here 10+ years - while ideal, this is not the current landscape.
Here is some data. With Bowden and Paterno leaving CFB the past half decade the number of super long tenured coaches in FBS Power 5 conferences is down to 1* - Beamer. He has been at VA Tech since 1987.
*Bill Snyder is an outlier at Kansas State having been there in 2 stints - 89 to 05 then back again in 09-current. So he would be the 2nd.
After that there is a decade long drop to #2 - Bob Stoops who has been at Oklahoma since 1999. Ferentz joins him at that level.
There are only 4 other Big 5 conference coaches who have been around for more than a decade - and one (Gary Patterson) has only been in the Big 12 for 3 years. Richt (Georgia), Pinkel (Missouri), Riley (Oregon State) are the other 3.
That is not even 2 handful of coaches across all the power 5 conferences that have lasted > decade. You get 7 more in the 8 to 10 year range :
- 2005 hire - Gundy (alma mater), Miles, Whittingham (BYU grad coaching in Utah), Spurrier
- 2006 hire - Fitzgerald (alma mater)
- 2007 hire - Dantonio, Saban
There are now 64 schools in Power 5 conferences, so that is 8 schools with a coach >10 years (12.5%), and 7 other schools with a coach with 8 to 10 years (11%).
Long story short - you have a 1 in 9 chance of landing a coach who will be here 10+ years, and a 1 in 10 chance of one who will be here 8 to 10 years. Most Big 5 schools have had their coach for 7 years or less (76.5%). We should not disqualify people who might be here "only" 6-8 years because we want to find a unicorn. And as important, seeing what type of people they spin off in their coaching tree is probably quite important because rather than trying to find 1 man to coach 15+ years the most likely situation for a successful "era" is 1 man handing the baton off to another.
Since this is a shorter than usual diary I will end this with a video of the opposite end of the spectrum - one of the youngest "football" coaches in the world, who is coaching in Croatia at age 24. ;) Enjoy.
Floyd Mayweather is by any measure is a well conditioned athlete. Power, speed, endurance, mobility. In a video, it was interesting to see he has a foam roll in his house. That's used for Myofascial Self-Release, known as Trigger Point Therapy. This increasingly popular method, pioneered by Dr. Janet Travell and Dr. David Simon, gets tension and knots out of muscles.
People carry much more chronic, restrictive tension in our bodies than most realize. Trigger point release, along with stretching, yoga, massage, etc, releases adhesions and restrictions in the muscles and connective tissue. Teaching this for 24 years, I've seen it have a powerful effect.
More examples? In 1976 Hasely Crawford won the Olympic gold in the 100 meters. He was able to generate tremendous force with speed to generate power, and overcome his inertial mass more effectively than anyone in the world. I met Hasely Crawford in Ann Arbor in1978. We spoke for a while. He was probably the most relaxed person I ever met in my life. He carried very little tension of any sort in his body or being.
Usain Bolt does a great job of staying loose before a competition. Do you think he works on just getting stronger, or having resilient, efficient muscles?
Olympic coaches nowadays emphasize releasing muscles fibers from chronic tension, and maintaining pliability and resilience in fascia, tendons, ligaments. If an Olympic athlete carries tight, non-functional muscle fibers, it's like an anchor. They can't compete at world class levels. S&C coaches are all over the map on this subject. A former U of M S&C coach thought flexibility was useless. That's really WRONG.
A primary principle for athletic training is: The more you do something the better you get at doing that thing. As a health and fitness instructor, and former addiction counselor, I've worked with pro and Olympic athletes. We train with bands and cables more than weights. Stabilization training produces real world power, and is optimal for the joint's supportive tissue. Elastic bands support maximum force generation along with explosive speed, optimizing endurance as well. Barwiss uses this training. Starett strongly emphasizes mobility.
Flexible, mobile, efficient muscles generating power through a wide range of motion are the key to athletic power, and for preventing injuries. Core training in all three planes of motion (sagittal, ventral, transverse) is also important, because the core is the weak link in transferring power from the legs to the torso.
Why do we have so many ACL and other injuries? Where is our fourth quarter performance? It can be traced to the type of strength and conditioning training being practiced. There are four protocols for training: Strength, Power, Endurance, Hypertrophy. It's apparent from results on the field: Our S&C program over-emphasizes gross muscle mass, that is Hypertrophy, over Power and Endurance, which are the real factors in athletic performance. Those impressive pictures we see of our football players getting bigger? That's body building muscle, which does not translate well to sports performance, and sets up our players for injury.
Who is responsible to determine the direction of our S&C program? Aaron Wellman has a say in this. But who makes the final decision? This rash of injuries is not a random fluke, but can be explained by current sports science. Old school training protocols, which promote superficial results, lead to these painful outcomes.
After all of the CC threads, I was very surprised that there has only been one mention of Doc Holliday. I personally like keeping track of unbeatens in college football and when Marshall was 4-0 I started to get curious. So I looked up there coach and started some research. Now that they are 7-0, I thought that this would be threadworthy. I am gonna break this up into a couple different categories similar to how Ron Utah has done his in the diaries(which are good reads). The categories are: Coaching Background, Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Recruiting, and likeliness of him coming here and staying.
West Virginia(Part 1):
He started off at West Virginia under Don Nehlen, who was a QB coach at Michigan, as a Wide Receivers coach. He did that for 7 years and moved to the defense to coach the Inside Linebackers. Then he went back to Receivers and then was promoted to Assistant Head Coach. He coached the three top career and single-season reception leaders in school history and 8 of the top ten players in both categories.
He coached in Raleigh for four years as an Assistant Head Coach and receivers coach. During his time here he coached three of the top 8 recievers in school history. Notice the pattern here.
You guys may not like this but Holliday coached under Urban Meyer from 2005-2008 as an Assistant Head Coach, safeties coach, and recruiting coordinator.
West Virginia(Part 2):
Almost hired as the head coach after Rich Rod left to coach somewhere, he was hired as the Assistant Head Coach, tight end coach, fullback coach and recruiting coordinator.
Where he is now, he has been the coach from 2009-Present.
Easily Hollidays strong suit, besides maybe recruiting. His teams can put up points and fast.
Here are his average rankings for yardage per game so far at Marshall:
47th TOTY/G = 435 Yds
40th PY/G = 265 Yds
60th RY/G = 170 Yds
But what about scoring?
Well, here you go:
20.8 PPG = 108th
22 PPG = 106th
40.9 PPG = 9th
43 PPG = 7th
2014(thru 7 games):
47.4 PPG = 2nd
This averages out to the 46th best Points per game. That is about 33 Points per game which is enough to win every game.
He runs a spready offense, but at this point I think we all would take someone who can win, it doesn't matter if he runs the triple offense, just score more than the other team.
The iffy spot of this guy, his defenses, have been above average but again not great.
He has had the
71st best pass yardage defense, the
65th best run yardage defense, and the
68th best total yardage defense.
That averages out to
237 pass yards,
163 rush yards, and
411 total yards.
Now points wise, his teams have averaged the 66th best defense in the country, which this year would be good for 27 points per game. Again, with his offense, enough to win.
An average special teams coach, this is by no means "Beamer Ball" but I do not think we would have to worry about counting the players on the field.
Over his career at Marshall, his punt team has averaged 42.8 yards per punt.
They have averaged 9.2 yards per punt return. Michigan averages 7.8 right now.
And they have averaged 22 yards per kickoff return. Michigan averages 19 right now.
So, a downgrade in the punting game but an upgrade in the return game. Plus I would imagine that Norfleet is better than what he can get at Marshall.
Doc Holliday is known for being a pretty outsanding recruiter. He has won the recruiting award for his area a bunch and has pretty good ties down south. He pulled together some pretty good classes at Florida and West Virginia. Here are his recruiting class rankings from rivals:
1 ****, 8 ***.
1 ****, 10 ***
3 ****, 8 ***
To get these consistent classes at Marshall is pretty impressive. He is not in a recruiting hotbed which some small schools are and he is at a school that is not intriguing.
He has averaged the 66th best class, that is consistent and an average class. He has gotten 5 four stars over six years. He has also averaged 10 3 ***s per class. Again these are pretty encouraging. At Michigan, there are a handful of kids that fall in love with Michigan no matter who the coach is. It seems like Holliday would do well enough here.
Likeliness of him coming/Staying:
I think if he was offered the job of a big time school i.e. Michigan, He would accept. However, he has only coached down south and has spent most of his time at West Virginia so I would say there would be a 40% chance of him coming if we offered. He only makes 600,000 a year right now so of we offered him 3 mil. I couldn’t see him turning that down. Also, if WVU ever came offering, I could see him spurning Michigan for that opportunity.
So overall, I really like Doc Holliday. He has gotten consistent results with worse players. Is he the best option? No. Should he be considered? Definitely. He has a lot of the things you look for in a quality coach.