Diaries

First let me appologize and say thanks to my son Sam.  He talked me into going to the game in San Antonio.  He had decided to go and encouraged me to consider going with him. I fussed over it for about three days then started checking airline flights and realized there was no way to do it without spending thousands of dollars. He had purchased tickets and was going with or without me. This created in me serious case of FOMO.  I am old enough that I might not get another chance to watch us play for another national championship. So I wrangled the air and car and hotel and called Sam to let him know I was in.

I love him even more because he asked me to go with him even though I was once called the worst fan in America by Bobby Knight in a post game interview after we beat Indiana at Crisler many years ago. I harrassed him from the second row behind the Indiana bench for the whole game. Sam knows that I am always cry about the refs. He hates it when I crab about them but he still called me and asked me to go to the games with him anyway.  Thanks Sam. I love you very much. I explained to him that I was just spending his inheritance anyway.

Sam was fortunate that we were too far away during the Loyola game to be sure about ref calls. We were in the upper deck. We were seated close to some Michigan fans and enjoyed the struggle and the comeback win over Loyola so I was less crabby than usual. The seats were actually pretty good if you did not care about the officiating and just wanted to watch the game. We celbrated the win over Loyola only briefly as we watched Villanova completely destroy Kansas in a matter of minutes the way we had Texas A and M. The next day, the experts were picking Villanova 80% to beat us.  We had a sense of forboding and talked for hours about what strategy might beat what looked like a super team.  We found last minute tickets and watched the Spurs beat the Rockets on Easter Sunday. They played great defense and shut down Harden almost completely. This gave me some hope that our D could shut down Brunson and companuy but it was not to be. 

Speaking of Brunson, while waiting in line for breakfast on Monday, we spoke with a Michigan grad who was at the game to root for Villanova. When Brunson was in high school in Chicago, Brunson was his sons baby sitter.  There he was, a Michigan grad with a Villanova shirt on ready to go to the game with his son. They had come to see Brunson play in the national title game. He had no mixed emotions. He said Brunson was a wonderful young man and I believe him.

We decided to get the best seats we could for the championship game. Ticket prices were falling as Kansas and Loyola fans bailed.  We got excellent seats opposite the Michgan bench in the 12th row.  This meant that I was crabbing all of the first half of the game game about bad calls and crabbing at the Villanova fan next ot me. I was sure we were getting hosed. My son had to tell me multiple times to chill and leave the Villanova fans alone. 

Looking back, things really began to fall apart at the 13 minute mark. It was the downside of a full moon which for me had always been a dicey night when I was on call as a young doctor. We started the game strong defensively and had no fouls over the first 7 minutes. We had hit a couple threes and they had missed some well contested threes. The score is 14 to 8. I am feeling pretty good. Then it starts to happen. Just about every call starts going against us and the refs seem blind to the same fouls when committed by Villanova. I get crabby and Sam has to remind me over and over to chill. By the end of the half, I know we are doomed and I am feeling like the refs have stolen it. Other than DiVincenzo, we have been pretty much shut down but we are in more foul trouble. By the time we are down by double digits going away in the second half, I have stopped crabbing about the calls but those 13 minutes of the first half were haunting me. I decided to wait until I was home and had some time to grieve a bit before I watched a TV replay to see if I was correct that we were getting hosed. 

We were. You can use this guide to watch the game again if you can stand it. You will see how one sided the refs were. On the other hand we couldn't hit an open three and that was probably our doom not the refs. So here is the 13 minute sequence of doom. It made me feel better to know that I can still know a hosing when I see one.  

12:50- Rahk has just made a three and tries another long one and he gets an elbow in the chest from POY as he finishes. No call. (Robinson was wide open for a pass right at the 3 point line).

12:44- We fail to get back in transition. This leads to a three pointer made on the other end by Donte (You Know Who).

12:26- Rahk drives to the hoop and gets pushed pretty firmly in the back but makes the layup. This is probably an ok no call except..

12:06- …immediately on the other end YKW drives to the hoop is barely pushed by Simpson and we get called.  It’s back to back to back identical plays. They get a call we do not. 

11:51- Poole get fouled on a layup and makes the foul shot. 

11:40- Simmons is leans into the POY as the ball is coming up. POY spins grabs Simmons arm and pulls him over his back. Foul called on Simmons.  I suppose this is just a crafty move but the ref who calls it is behind the play and cannot see POY grab Simmons arm. On the subsequent inbounds he gets the ball and jumps sideways into Simmons as he is sliding and giving ground thus making contact and throwing his head back to make it look like it was Simmons initiating the contact. I suppose this was just another crafty move.  Announcer says “Kind selling it a little bit but as POY you can do that”.

11:18- They miss a 3 and Poole gets totally head smacked over the back and they get the ball and missed another 3 and Robinson blocks out YKW very nicely but as YKW falls down and Robinsons elbow is at a level the touches his face and Robinson is called for a foul on a good box out. Basically, two over the back calls in a row missed.

10:02- Wagner get a pass near the baseline and is pushed hard with two hands in the back and gets no call. He has to spin back and the ball gets stripped and there is a scramble that could have been a foul on anyone so it is a jump. After the inbounds, Wagner gets an open 3 and air balls it as the clock runs down. My sense of doom begins.

9:45- YKW runs the ball up after the miss. Rhak strips it and the ball hits his chin from the force of the strip and he throws his head back and Rhak gets called. You can see this is not a foul on the slo mo replay but in real time it looks bad. Soon after Brunson carries the ball right in front of the ref and no call.

8:56- Mathews is down to just seconds to shoot and is probably fouled on the shot but close.

8:30- Livers misses an open 3. On the rebound, YKW goes over the back on Teske and POY gets the rebound right under him and throws a full hard deliberate shoulder into Teske as he goes up the floor right in front of the ref. No call.  

8:20- Simpson strips the POY which actually helps him as he regains his dribble and drives and shoulders in again on Teske who is helping. Hegets minor contact and then sells the foul. Three of these in 5 minutes. They score off the next inbounds and it is now 21 to 18

7:36- Teske gets a pass from Simpson on the pick and roll. Spellman grabs him and the crowd groans as there is no call. This is at least as much or more contact than POY got on his call against Teske. Spellman then steps into to him twice as he tries to shoot. No call. On the miss, there is a scramble for the rebound and Mathews gets called for a foul.  They make both ends of the one. It is now 21 to 20.

6:45 – We defend well again but then miss two open threes in a row with a good offensive rebound in between. We have not scored in about 5 minutes now. We turned it over several times and missed multiple open threes. At this point I know it is going to be a bad night. We have had seven fouls called on us to one on them over these 5 minutes. We have scored 7 points and they have scored 12.  We have several players with two fouls. It will change the intensity of the defense we can play. They are in the 1 and 1 with over 7 minutes left and are a great free throw shooting team.

6:05 YKW goes off and we are down by 2.

5:45 Rhak drives and gets our first basket in 5 minutes. He is smacked in the face on the way. No call

Over the rest of the half we continue to miss open threes. They get away with a goal tend when they pin Simpson’s ball after it hit the back board and they get possession and then they hit a three. We have gone another three minutes without scoring at this point and we are down by 9 at the half. 

It wonder if the refs were just as bad in the second half but by then I stopped watching the officials and just asssumed that the fix was in. I know that this team deserved better.  I am glad I was there with my son who I love. I know that officiating basketball is hard as I have done it. You only know you have done a decent job when no one notices it. Go Blue. 

It might feel a bit too soon to share your feelings, but science doesn't stop for your pain or suffering.

It's time for the last basketball fan satisfaction survey.

How are you feeling about the season with all things said and done?
How are you feeling about next year?

Take the survey here: https://goo.gl/forms/vaO1zAH11UwEK5Kh2

Been crunching some numbers to see just how bad our luck has been on 3 point shooting this postseason. It's been a bit of a shock to me because most of the looks were open; these are not heavily contested attempts or bad flow for the most part. For context, here's our shooting in the regular season versus the postseason:

It's been awful. So it seems we are due for some regression to the mean. That begs the question: how likely are we to return all the way to the mean? TL;DR - it's a long shot.

Just to simplify, in the below I assume each attempt is an independent trial. I also assume each shot has a 37.1% chance of going in (to way more decimal points). Furthermore, I assume we can just look at our odds of hitting the right number of attempts out of 11, 12, etc. and summing them.

I admit I had to google around for the math and used the Binomial Probability model outlined here. Specifically, to calculate the odds of having at least X Makes for a given Y Attempts, I summed for X through Y the value of:

(makes choose attempts) * (odds to make ^ makes) * (odds to miss ^ misses)

Raw numbers are here. Caveats aside, this analysis is meant to provide some perspective. I computed the likelihood we get our March Madness shooting percentage back up to the regular season average as about 1 in 237.

So it's a long shot, but better than 1 in 250. Now, if we include all of the postseason and just look at what our odds are to even finish with that shooting percentage for the tourney (assuming the up to date 36.2% is correct), it's about three times more likely: 1 in 78.

Thanks very much to J. for catching some errors in my initial analysis.

We don't seem to talk about it anymore, but the Michigan basketball teams of the mid-to-late 1980s, under Bill Frieder, were consistently ranked in the AP top 5. But like the Red Wings teams of the early 1990s and 2000s, Michigan's talent never seemed to go anywhere in the NCAA tournament. Frieder's teams would get #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and then flame out in the first or second rounds.

The 1984-85 team was the first of those quintessential Frieder teams. 7 players from that squad were drafted: Roy Tarpley (7th overall 1986, the 1985 Big Ten Player of the Year, #42 in the pic to the right), Gary Grant (15th overall 1988), Richard Rellford, Butch Wade, Antoine Joubert, and Robert Henderson. The team went 26-4 overall and 16-2 in the Big Ten.

Michigan entered the 1985 NCAA tournament—its first trip to the Big Dance in eight years—on a roll. They had won 16 straight games to enter the tournament, were ranked #2 in the country (second only to Patrick Ewing's Georgetown), were seeded #1 in the Southeast region, and defeated Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round 59-55.

They then faced an unheralded #8-seeded Villanova team in the Round of 32, coached by Rollie Massimino. Villanova had lost 10 games, but 2 of those were to #1 Georgetown and 3 were to #3 St. John's, led by Chris Mullin and Bill Wennington.

Here's an excerpt from the Chicago Tribune's account of that game, which Villanova won 59-55. Frieder blamed his team's youth and inexperience on the big stage for the loss:

"It helps playing against Patrick Ewing twice a year," said Villanova center Ed Pinckney, referring to Georgetown`s 7-foot All-America. "That`s enough to set you up to go against the best..."

"Our conference definitely prepared us," said Wildcat forward Dwayne McClain, whose deadly outside shooting led to 20 points and a wrecked Michigan defense. "We have great centers and we have great guards in our league. I didn`t think we were underdogs."

Coach Rollie Massimino`s experienced team, which starts three seniors, showed its poise by not panicking while going scoreless for the opening 7 minutes 44 seconds of the second half. That drought enabled the Wolverines to build a 35-30 advantage, their biggest of the game.

"I'd hoped we could get ahead and speed up the tempo," said Michigan coach Bill Frieder. "But we couldn`t sustain it, and they were perfect at countering almost everything we tried the rest of the way. In all honesty, I think their six straight years in the NCAAs and our inexperience showed."

Michigan, which started three juniors, a sophomore and a freshman, won the National Invitation Tournament last year but was making its first NCAA appearance since 1977.

"Gary Grant was an example of a freshman," said Frieder, whose team finished 26-4. "He`s got great talent, but he`s got a lot to learn."

There was no shot clock in those days, which allowed Villanova to slow down the high-flying Michigan offense:

Grant went scoreless for the first time in his collegiate career and fouled out. Michigan`s point total was its lowest this season. Wolverine center Roy Tarpley got only 2 of his team-high 14 points in the second half. 

"I thought if the game would be in the 60s or 70s, we`d be okay," said Frieder. "But it turned out to be the type of game I really expected. They`ve lost 10 games, but they've lost to teams like Georgetown, St. John`s, Syracuse, Maryland. They have 10 losses, but they don`t look like it."

This is the third time Villanova`s seniors have advanced to the final 16 teams, missing last year when they lost to Illinois. Massimino said he thought the past performances were a big factor.

"You have to feel sorry for Grant," said Massimino. "Experience is very important in a game like this. When these guys were freshmen, we had trouble getting out of close ones. I told my players to try and relate to that before the game."

Villanova never relinquished the lead after going up 38-37 on a free throw by Gary McLain with 7:32 left.

"Thank God the shot clock was off," said Massimino, whose Wildcats squeezed every possible second from each possession. "These kids have been through this sort of thing before."

Villanova's poise was evident at the free-throw line, where they hit 12 of 15 in the final 2:10. The Wildcats made 25 free throws in the game, compared to just three for the Wolverines.

"We really had trouble adjusting to the slow pace," said Michigan guard Antoine Joubert. "We like to run, and we`re used to it. When we tried to get it inside to Tarpley, they were really sagging on him."

In a later recollection, the Wildcats' Ed Pinckney agreed that Villanova's experience and low-tempo strategy were the keys to victory:

"Everyone on the team knew we’d beat Michigan. We kept telling each other, "We play Georgetown and St. Johns. They don’t." The guys on Michigan were mostly freshman and sophomores. Our guys – particularly the seniors – were indignant about that – that they were so young and favored over a veteran team like ours. Michigan was athletic. Thy wanted to play a fast-paced game. But we were feeling like, "You guys are the underclassmen. We’re not going to let you dictate the pace of this game." We didn’t feel they could apply the kind of pressure Georgetown does. We were determined to execute properly and we did. That game was almost fun. We were confident. We didn’t feel pressure at all."

Villanova, of course, ended up defeating Georgetown for their first national championship, in a game that is the second-biggest point-spread upset in NCAA championship game history.

Here's hoping that Gary Grant and the rest of those 1985 stars are in the Alamodome tonight. Roy Tarpley can't join them because, after a troubled pro career filled with drug and alcohol problems, he died in 2015. It's sad for many reasons—from today's standpoint, especially because Roy Tarpley would have been an outstanding player in Beilein's system: a 7-footer who had a great all-around game.

The game is different now, and Villanova today is much better coached than those Frieder teams of the '80s. But if they could do it us, why can't we do it to them?

As we approach John Beilein's second Final Four, I thought it would be fun to review what people thought of the Beilein regime up to February of 2017. Note: Some of the stuff looks really stupid. Some of it was dead on, and we know this because the problems people complained about got fixed, often in big ways. In these linked threads you'll find embarrassing mistakes, but also accurate analysis of problems that Beilein subsequently fixed.

Names are not used in this post because we all say dumb stuff, and quotes shouldn't be held against posters today. I've actually deleted most of the highlights because I think it's mean-spiriited. Just a sampling is preserved to give people the general idea.

Two Years Ago:

The story actually starts with a mediocre 2015-2016 season whose highlight was a Kam Chatman three to beat Indiana in the B1G Tournament and a First Four win in Dayton. In March of 16, Brian posted a mailbag with a bunch of critical talk about Beilein. Here's a highlight:

Emailer:

What are the odds of replacing Beilein with someone who runs a clean program, fits culturally with the university, and achieves more success on the court? I put it at about 10%. That's not a chance worth taking for someone who may be marginally better. But the only thing that would satisfy these guys is if we were dominating the Big Ten. So then you need to consider the odds of getting the coach who runs a clean program, fits in culturally and consistently out-performs Izzo, Crean, et al. I put those odds under 1%.

Brian:

I don't think that's clear yet. I do think we're going to see an offseason shakeup and hopefully a defensive specialist brought in. I am still resigned to the fact that Beilein's peak is likely to have already passed and that we'll probably be gunning for a Sweet 16 or two before he retires, not a title.

Well, Brian hit one out of two. Defensive specialist: Check. Ceiling: not so much.

Fire Beilein

Now we move to 2017, and a thread posted on January 11 after that loss to Illinois entitled: Fire John Beilein. It was a disastrous game that prompted the famed Maverick Morgan "white collar" quote that transformed Derrick Walton into a killer. 

Key quote from the OP: "Your team is no longer watchable."

i realize Beilein needs to go, but he ain't getting fired, warde seems too slow to react.

Ohio State 70, Michigan 66

We visit the nadir of the Beilein regime, a loss to a mediocre OSU team playing out the end of the Thad Matta regime. A highlight from the game story thread:

Starting to feel like the basketball version of the hoke regime

Last, but not least: The Fire Beilein Snowflake Thread from the same day:

is there anybody left

Who thinks he shouldn't be fired?............ (crickets)

And:

It's time for Warde to get off his fat keister and do something. Beilein shouldn't be allowed to finish this season. Absolutely inexcusable to lose at home to this god awful OSU team with your tournament lives on the line. This team takes on the identity of its coach: soft, uninspired, boring

Ah, the memories.

Michigan hung the heads of two teams this weekend [JD Scott]

OFFENSE

Analysis: This is another game where overall Corsi is not as relevant as either Close Corsi or House Chances. I charted the game on a re-watch, and it really became a game of errors. Michigan definitely created some chances, but they also took advantage of some major gaffes by BU.

Over the first half of the game or so, the Wolverines were able to get into the House with relative ease, as close to half of their attempts came from a desirable location. After the fluky Slaker goal gave Michigan the lead, they mostly went into prevent mode, and BU applied tons of pressure to tie the game. Michigan was happy to sacrifice chances on net for protection of their own net. This wasn’t the best offensive output of the season by any means, but it was reflective of the game that Michigan was playing.

Even so, Michigan missed a few golden chances to extend their lead and end the game. CHN had close corsi at 32-24, BU, which is way more reflective of how this game went. Hughes was the beneficiary of a goal in which all six BU participants stood in a parallel line. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. Warren’s hustle goal also came from a Plinko bounce off of the boards and Oettinger’s skate.

[After THE JUMP: shutdown defense, timely goaltending, and advantageous OMRs]