Diaries

After the Penn State and Illinois losses that is what I kept hearing from the uber-rational folks here.  This team is exactly where we thought they would be prior to the unrealistically raised hopes of 4-0.  Get to a bowl game and every thing is hunky-dory.

Well, Michigan has pissed away another game and has now lost five straight conference games (turnover = touchdown; onside kick = touchdown; missed extra point and field goal = loss).  The defense gives up big play after big play while the offense can no longer be counted on to make the big play with the game on the line.  This team finds a way to lose.

Can anyone really say victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State are possible at this point? Be rational, right?

So what is the Michigan fan supposed to think - in a clam and rational manner - if this team loses seven straight conference games, has a losing season, and misses out on a bowl game?

I am not advocating firing the coach and starting over.  I do not think that is the answer.  But what I would like to know is what all of these "calm down this is what we expected" folks think at this point.

Because I did not expect this team to compete for a Big Ten title or beat high caliber teams.  But I sure as heck expected this team to not get crushed by Illinois and choke a game away against Purdue when they had a two touchdown lead at the half.

It seems likely to me that this team is going to have to improve just to be mediocre next year given the defense.  And if the offensive line doesn't get substantially better how are we going to outscore everyone?

Maybe it is my fault for not realizing that Michigan would need three years to be competitive - not national but in the conference - again.  Feels like this program is a lot farther behind than I thought.

I cant believe its already the first Saturday of November. The season has gone by in a blink of an eye. The Big 10 has divded into two groups: Iowa, PSU and OSU. And everyone else. Two of the former could still make the BCS, which could help the huddled middle class of the laegue. There is so much to shuffle out, but the league could have eight bowl eligible teams. Right now, the leagueis in contention to lead the country in teams finishing 6-6. That second BCS bid could let them all go bowling. But with two midmajors bucking for a spot, Notre Dame cruising to a 10-win season and possible contenders from the ACC and Pac 10 getting a rare at large for thier leagues (I would say USC, Miami, for example, could easily get at larges if they win out and dont win their leagues), the Big 10 could easily get shut out. Meanwhile, a mean chase for the Motor City, er Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl, will also play out. With that in mind, onto this week's picks:

Wisconsin at Indiana, noon, BTN. Lines: Wisco -11, O/U 54.5

Here's a list of all-time moments in Indiana-Wisconsin series history: The 1992 classic in Bloomington with the Hoosiers wheezing to a 10-3 win. The best play of the game was an 80-yard punt. It didnt matter as we swapped whiskey shots on a sun soaked October southern Indiana afternoon. Afterwards we went an amazing barbecue post game tailgate. One of the best football Saturdays I ever had while down there, the moments of which we dont have time for here. I was 20. Sigh; the 1999 tilt, where a group of us fellow Hoosiers took in the game from the Treasure Island sports book during a Vegas weekend. With the emerging threat of Antwaan Randle-El on our side, we were rather bullish on the Hoosiers that day catching points against the Badgers in a shootout, so we all took IU and the Over 56. Three hours and eleventy billion yards by Ron Dayne later, we were praying that the Badgers could at least cover the Over for us by themselves. They did. 58-0;  the 2001 clash where, despite an All Big 10 performance the whole year out of Randle-El, IU entered the game winless. Gordie, my college roommate back in the day, was so disgusted with the compentecy of the Cam Cameron era that he bet the house on the Badgers who were laying something like two touchdowns. Indiana played the best game I've seen out of the program and won 63-28. We toasted the Hoosiers and mocked Gordie by downing Irish car bombs into the night; watching him do the same thing the following year in 2002 and seeing IU pull out another upset, abeit this one in a closer fashion, 31-28. So, you might as well keep an eye on this game so you don't miss the magic.

The Pick: Indiana +11.......Jonathan Clay is going to have a monster day. But, I dont think the Hoosiers shrink here. Their defensive front will confuse Badger QB Scott Tolzien into enough mistakes to give the Hoosiers a shot. A year after being non competitive in every game, the Hoosiers have outplayed their opponent in seven of nine games, IMHE. Badgers have had some trouble this year matching up with good receivers and unlike Purdue last week Doss and Belcher wont drop everything thrown to them. IU is one of the best in the nation at the turnover game, something I like in a home dog catching double figures. Am I betting with my heart? Maybe, but that heart is 4-1 ATS when going to the window with the Hoosiers this year. So, Indiana is the reliable football progam and Michigan can't win a Big 10 game? Good grief. What's next? Michigan's basketball team ranked in preseason poll and the IU hoopsters at the bottom of the standings? Wait, what?

Illinois at Minnesota, noon, BTN. Lines:Minny -7, O/U 54

The two most impressive Big 10 teams from a week ago meet up in this one.  Dueling gambling trends knock heads as well with the 7-3 ATS road dog Illini going up against the 13-3 ATS against teams with a losing record Gophers. Hey, its the 89th and 108th scoring offenses vs the 76th and 73th scoring defense. Ron Zook vs Tim Brewster. That's some hot Big 10 action. I wish we could wager on things like 'will Pam Ward be broadcasting this game?' or 'will this be a Sam Rosen game on the BTN?' I think the Book would be surprised how much action they could get there.

The Pick: Minnesota -7......yeah, I dont trust the Illini are back. I like the way the Gophers have played at home this year. They'll jump on the Illini early. Illinois will have trouble with Weber's passing. The ball hawking Gopher defense will create a couple key turnovers and might even score. Gophers will be in control most of the game and pull away late to win by more than two scores.

Northwestern at Iowa, noon, ESPN. Lines: Iowa -15.5, O/U 45

Iowa's roller coaster ride in their surprising pursuit of a National Title meets up with a Northwestern team that has actually beaten the Hawks in three of their last four meetings. With a possible look ahead to the Buckeyes next week, are the Hawkeyes primed for an upset? Hey, anything is possible when the ball is in Ricky Stanzi's hand. In the end, I dont think Iowa trips up here. In fact, they get this done by three touchdowns. They were lucky last week to cover the big number, but this week they're legit in earning it. Northwestern can move the ball through the air. Kafka might be the best passer in the Big 10. But, look for Iowa to dominate the field position game as there's a big difference in the punting games in the Hawks favor. I dont trust any QB in the Big 10 to drive long fields consistently against Iowa. Kafka can fall into sloppy tendencies, too, so eventually he might give Stanzi Ball a run for its money. The Wildcats scored just 13 points against PSU and I dont think they get too much more here. Iowa pays back Northwestern in a big way.

The Pick: Iowa -15.5.........If the Hawkeyes are at home, I'm playing them. I have always had a love affair with Iowa due to a four-year span beginning with the Brad Banks era where I seemed to nail everyone of their games. They printed money at Kinnick Stadium. The last two seasons, highlighted by the nation's second longest winning, have been like having a steamy affair with an old flame. I'm on them today and I look forward to their defensive line thrashing Kafka into his worst day of the season.

Purdue at Michigan, noon, BTN. Lines: Michigan -6, O/U 53.5

I share everyone else's fascination with this pointspread, even though I said on the podcast it would probably be around five points. Who really needs nearly a full touchdown to be goaded into betting against Michigan the way they've played? Are we to believe there is such a clamor of people going to the window that the odds needed to be jacked up this high to stem the tide of Wolverine money? Apparently, because that's what happened. When some of the first off shores posted lines late Sunday night and into Monday morning, I saw a number of places, notably caribsports, pinnacle and sportsbook, had Michigan favored by 3.5. I am in a weekly football pool that includes a handful of college and NFL games and the proprietor of the pool grabs Monday lines from an offshore and sends the pool. This game is 3.5 on that sheet. But, then before you know it shot up to 6 points. That's a huge surge of steam towards Michigan. You know who usually bets a ton of money, enough to move the line, that early in the week? Wiseguy types who rake in every week betting the games. Interesting. Of course, many of those same folks will all be investing in Purdue on the late line in attempt to win a juicy middle with a four or five point Michigan win. Thats why they call it gambling. Anyway, for my tastes, I dont think you can lay a lot of points with a defense like Michigan's that can be scored on with any play from anywhere on the field. I think there should be a lot of points, so after two weeks of Unders, expect the Over to cash in a Michigan game. And, if you can, put some chips on the Over for total combined turnovers. Holy hell, these teams perfected the art. Everyone around here likes to say its Michigan 2008 all over again. Except, Purdue has actually stolen the disguise as well. Hard to imagine less than 5 giveaways in this one.

The Pick: Purdue +6......I love going to games. But, if I have to leave depressed by their effort, or see black and gold clad fans snapping photos of the scoreboard like they're at Disneyland, then I might as well profit. And, if the Wolverines come out and play their best game of the season and win this one easy, then I consider this money well spent.

Ohio State at Penn State, 3:30, ABC. Lines: PSU -5, O/U 39

A heavyweight fight. Last year's game was a bloodbath. This will end being one of the more physical games played this season. Frankly, I think Penn State is way more equipped to succeed and win in that type of game. They strike me as the type of team who can win anywhere in any style of game. Ohio State looks like a team that might fold if he gets caught in the mouth. Penn State will come out swinging, eventually landing enough blows en route to winning this game by at least a touchdown.  Not a lot of points will be on the scoreboard. Both defensive lines have serious matchup advantages against their opposing offensive lines. But, the I think the PSU DL will inflict a lot more lethal damage on Pryor than the OSU front will cause Clark and company. The Beavers are running smooth on offense. Clark is putting together a fantastic senior season proving doofus doubters like myself wrong. Pryor is a turnover and incompletion machine. I'm not sure I trust him to lead his team to touchdowns against good teams, let alone winning a game.  I think he's going to get to know Navarro Bowman and Jared Odrick real well tomorrow. He might even complete a pass to one and hand the ball of to the other. But, he might ditch both of them altogether and toss loving kisses to Sean Lee all day. Take the Under wherever you can on Pryor's stat line.

The Pick: Penn State -5........the home team has gone 10-6 ATS since they've been league rivals with PSU covering four of the last five on this field. Buckeyes breaking in a new kicker. Points will be so hard to come by in this one that its hard not seeing that being a negative impact on OSU.

If we win or lose tomorrow our future is bright.  Stay behind this team and coach.

Tomorrow, be as loud as you can at the game.  As loud or louder than you were at the Notre Dame game.  Let this team know that we love and support it.  I almost blacked out at the Notre Dame game from screaming and stomping my feet and clapping.  The blue hair next to me had ear plugs in and was still covering his ears and giving me dirty looks.  Give our team the advantage.

Reasons to love this program and look forward to the future:

1) We went from a quiet stadium to one of the loudest in the conference.  People at the MSU and Iowa games, commented that it was no where near as loud as the Notre Dame game at Michigan Stadium.

2) This team is supposedly 16 scholarships short of the limit, which is a huge disadvantage.  This shortage will eventually be filled and when this gap is filled, some will be quality players and starters.

3) We have the most players in the BigTen with 3 or more years of eligibility left.  This means that in 2011 and 2012 we will most likely have the most experienced team in the league, which will set us up for a run at the Rose Bowl at that time.

4) For all of the whining about 3 star players in this years recruiting class, I see some solid players getting added to an already strong foundation.  Some of our recruits are lights out amazing.  Would you trade any HS QB in the nation for Devin Gardner?  I see about 4 guys in this class with the potential to be future all conference players (Gardner, Marvin, Miller, Hagerup).

5) The media has attacked coach Rod and he is still standing with the control of his team.  The media has invented BS stories (shredding papers), used unethically written stories written by someone who publicly admitted that he wanted Rod fired (hours), printed mountain out of a mole hill stories without doing any research to disprove the crap (Tiller) and etc....  All while giving our in-state rival's coach all of the benefit of the doubt on everthing blowing the positives out of proportion.

6) This team is better than lat year and will be even better next year.  How many players do we actually lose of note?  Brandon Graham, Warren, Minor, and Brown.  Well, we have a lot of young talented RBs and Brown and Minor are injured enough that I don't think we will miss much of a step at that position.  Sure we will miss Graham, but the Dline could actualy get stronger.  Lolata and Campbell were 2 highly sought after recruits and will be playing.  Martin is a beast and will be back.  I think Roh will improve and VanBergen is a solid contributor.  Warren leaving would be rough, but we have Woolfork, Floyd and Turner still here.

7) The QB play should only get better and we will have 3 options next year -- someone will rise to be a solid performer.


If any of you think that I am over optimistic....I got negbanged for saying that I thought we would finish 5-7 before the season and picking MSU to win after the 4-0 start.

If you are the type of fan who booed Navarre and are now ripping on these kids, feel free to consider changing allegiences to another team.  This team will develop into a great team if we give it time and support.  No one can develop a winner with the media and the fans against it...no one.  Stand behind the team and coaches win or lose tomorrow.

All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted for strength of opponent.  No 1AA games or stats are included.  For more detailed questions on how the numbers come about, click here.

Rushing Offense

Michigan Rush Offense: +2 (20)
Purdue Rush Defense: -1 (78)

After rough outings versus Indiana and Michigan State, the rushing attack seemed closer to back on track after 2 solid performances against very good defenses in Iowa and Penn State.  And then last week.  Last week would have been an outlier even for a bad rushing offense.  After adjusting for Illinois' weakness against the run, Michigan rated out a -11 for the game.  Of the 896 matchups between 1A teams Michigan's performance on Saturday ranked as the 887th best, only 9 teams have had a worse game this year on the ground than Michigan had last Saturday.

Game - Rush+

Def	Week	Total Off	Rush	Yards	TD
Indiana	4	-1.50	47	153	3
Michigan State	5	-3.30	25	61	0
Iowa	6	9.24	43	190	3
Penn State	8	4.80	33	134	1
Illinois	9	-10.96	38	129	1

Purdue, meanwhile has had everything from a +5 against Northwestern to a -8 in last week's debacle against Wisconsin.

Game - Rush+

Off	Week	Total Def	Rush	Yards	TD
Notre Dame	4	0.21	39	188	2
Northwestern	5	4.66	40	102	2
Minnesota	6	-3.56	41	216	4
Ohio State	7	1.87	23	110	1
Illinois	8	-3.38	34	194	2
Wisconsin	9	-7.86	50	279	2

The way these two teams have been playing, this could be anything from a huge advantage for M or Purdue, or it could be a total draw.  There doesn't appear to be much consistency to either of these units.

Pass Offense

Michigan Pass Offense: +0 (58)
Purdue Pass Defense: +2 (42)

Ready for more inconsistency? Since Big 10 play started the Wolverines have bounced back and forth between positive and negative:

Game - Pass+

Def	Week	Off Total	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT
Indiana	4	4.60	26	15	216	2	1
Michigan State	5	-5.05	34	19	180	2	1
Iowa	6	0.60	23	11	124	0	2
Penn State	8	-4.16	38	18	114	0	2
Illinois	9	1.40	27	17	247	0	0

Unfortunately, this week is slated for a negative game.

Even excluding the fantastic performance against Mr. Schematic Advantage and crew, Purdue's defense has been consistently solid in Big 10 play, with only one significantly negative performance on the season against Northwestern.

Game - Pass+

Off	Week	Def Total	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT
Notre Dame	4	10.67	40	24	195	1	1
Northwestern	5	-3.43	47	29	204	0	0
Minnesota	6	4.67	13	8	58	0	2
Ohio State	7	4.66	34	20	202	1	2
Illinois	8	-0.96	30	17	128	0	1
Wisconsin	9	1.88	22	12	101	0	1

It does not appear that there is much in the past several games that indicates Purdue being a team Michigan can significantly exploit through the air.

Rush Defense

Michigan Rush Defense: -3 (102)
Purdue Rush Offense: +0 (50)

Michigan's rush defense hasn't been nearly as good as their rush offense, but the ebb and flow of the season has mirrored very closely.

Game - Rush+

Off	Week	Total Def	Rush	Yards	TD
Indiana	4	-5.89	32	209	3
Michigan State	5	-1.92	47	206	3
Iowa	6	-0.37	32	98	1
Penn State	8	3.49	38	178	0
Illinois	9	-11.31	52	414	4

   
Bad games against Indiana and Michigan State, solid games against Iowa and Penn State and a disaster against Illinois.  The magnitudes are different in some cases, but directionally these two units have been intertwined for the whole Big 10 season.

Purdue had been consistently bad going -4 or -5 against ND and its first three Big 10 foes before posting a +5 against Illinois and a +1 against Wisconsin last week.

Game - Rush+

Def	Week	Total Off	Rush	Yards	TD
Notre Dame	4	-4.60	23	91	0
Northwestern	5	-4.91	24	68	0
Minnesota	6	-3.56	26	112	0
Ohio State	7	-4.60	29	82	0
Illinois	8	4.51	38	228	3
Wisconsin	9	0.83	24	90	0

This appears to be as good of a chance as Michigan is going to have to shut down a running game the rest of the season.  With that said, the performance against Illinois indicates that if Michigan does not step up their game, this could be another negative performance for what has so far been the worst unit for Michigan this year.

Pass Defense

Michigan Pass Defense: +2 (37)
Purdue Pass Offense: +0 (62)

For Michigan in the passing game, it all comes down to the big plays.  When they haven't been giving up gashes in the passing game, this has surprisingly been one of the best units in the Big 10, however, you can't take away those plays and the reality is that for all of the patchwork going on, this group has held its own.

Game - Pass+

Off	Week	Def Total	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT
Indiana	4	0.01	39	22	258	0	1
Michigan State	5	2.86	30	21	212	0	2
Iowa	6	5.66	40	22	269	2	1
Penn State	8	0.91	29	18	218	4	0
Illinois	9	-3.82	15	12	88	1	0

Purdue has really been all over the map on the season with great games and terrible games alike.

Game - Pass+

Def	Week	Off Total	Att	Comp	Yards	TD	INT
Notre Dame	4	3.32	40	24	271	3	1
Northwestern	5	11.15	30	21	300	3	1
Minnesota	6	-7.46	49	27	287	2	2
Ohio State	7	13.18	53	31	277	2	2
Illinois	8	-4.80	25	16	158	0	0
Wisconsin	9	-14.98	36	12	59	0	1

Big games against Ohio State and Northwestern were offset by really bad games against Wisconsin and Minnesota.  How Purdue's passing attack fares could swing the game as there has been 4 touchdowns worth of variance in their performance this year in Big 10 play alone.

Pace

Both Michigan and Purdue are currently top 20 in both expected points per game and total drives per game.  This could be a fast paced up and down game since both teams have packed the possessions so far this season.

Turnovers

Purdue and Michigan are both in the bottom 20 on turnover spread on the year, virtually tied at -25 points on turnovers this year.  What's surprising for Purdue is that they are 13th in the country, generating +32 points off of opponent turnovers on the season vs Michigan's defense at +7.  That gap is made up with Purdue propensity for throwing picks.  Only four teams have been hurt worse by picks than Purdue's -41.

Special Teams

Michigan +0.7 (33)
Purdue: -2.3 (94)

An average 3 point swing on special teams is a huge one for Michigan.  Let's see if Michigan can get a few big plays this week and justify the use of the term "bright spot."

Prediction

Michigan 31 Purdue 26

Elsewhere:
Illinois 17 Minnesota 31
Northwestern 7 Iowa 27
Ohio State 14 Penn State 21
Wisconsin 35 Indiana 17
Western Michigan 28 Michigan State 38

It's not a huge surprise that Michigan alum Chris Getz has been traded from the White Sox, but it's tough to see him go to a team as lowly as the Royals. Getz was a solid rookie this year for the Sox:

batting .261 with 19 doubles, four triples, two home runs, 31 RBI and 49 runs scored in 107 games. The left-handed hitter ranked tied for first among AL rookies in multi-hit games (28), third in triples and stolen bases (25), tied for fourth in doubles and fifth in walks (30), runs and hits (98). Getz' 92.6 stolen base percentage (25-for-27) led the league (min. 15 attempts). Defensively, his seven errors were tied with Toronto's Aaron Hill for the fewest among second baseman in the AL.

The White Sox plan all along seemed to use Getz (photo on right from Tony Ding) as a one year plug as they put the finishing touches on top prospect Gordon Beckham, or at least that was the rumors before last season. Getz performed well, but not enough to keep him in the top spot, especially after a season ending oblique injury. Beckham came in after the injury and performed quite well, signaling the end of Getz in Chicago.

This means your Chicago-based, UM-fan guide now points to Jake Fox on the north side, as much it pains me to say (FTR: I hate the Cubs).

At Kansas City, Getz will be competing with Alberto Callaspo at second for the starting position. Just a comparison of the two players:

Player	ABs	AVG	RBI	HR	R	SB
Getz	375	.261	31	2	49	25
Callaspo	576	.300	79	11	73	2

I don't know if the Royals may be using Callaspo as trade bait, or if they may move him over to short stop to replace a struggling Yuniesky Betancourt. We'll find out by April.

Note:  the existence of this topic can be correlated to Michigan's current downturn.  Universal karma for making fun of those lesser than us (which is becoming a smaller set as the weeks go on)?  So if Michigan loses again this weekend, feel free to pelt me with virtual tomatoes and I'll consider retiring this topic.

Last week's recap:
NC State v Florida State.  FSU pulled out the win the Worse Defense Than Michigan Bowl 45-43.  Congrats on +1000 yards combined!  When you're passing for 11 YPC or rushing for 8 YPA, that's a track meet.

Nebraska v Baylor.  Nebraska returned a punt for a TD to help them limp to a 20-10 win over Baylor.  Baylor's only TD was a pick-6.

Western Kentucky v North Texas.  Holy Arena Bowl score.  NTU won 68-49.  A game that saw 3 TDs of +50 yards, plus two more of more than 30.  Crazy stat of the day:  WKU's passing YPA was less than their rushing YPC.  and NTU almost did the same.  7.4 to 7.2 and 7.8 to 8.7.  WKU didn't punt.

This week's line-up isn't too bad.  No gimmies, like last week.  I know it already happened, but Virginia Tech v East Carolina (pirate-out notwithstanding) has already put up some ugly numbers for the supposed #23 team in the country.  One TD for the whole game?  Check.  Both teams 4-14 on 3rd down?  Check.  Two fumbles a side?  Check.  Looks like I chose correctly when I spent last night playing Wii with my wife, rather than watching it.

Maryland v NCState.  I don't want this to turn into the "Make Fun of Maryland" thread, but we all know the story.  Maryland is 2-6 and 1-3 in conference, with wins against James Madison and Clemson (?!).  NC State lost a close one to FSU last week, so they may be poised for their first win in the ACC.

Utah State v Hawaii in the "JetLag Bowl" sponsored by Aloha Airlines.  Utah State (motto:  we're in Utah too!)  is 2-6 and 1-3 in the WAC.  Which means they've beaten Louisiana Tech and Southern Utah.  As Homer Simpson said  "There's a Southern Utah now?"  There's only a couple teams worse than them in the WAC, one of which is Hawaii.  They beat Central Arkansas and Washington State to start 2-0 and probably start the "Hawaii in the BCS" talk again.  Since then, a loss to the same Louisiana Tech team and blown out by Boise State.  Do Hawaii cheerleaders wear grass skirts and coconut bras?  Because they should.

Pam&Ray don't even get a Big Ten noon game this week.  They're doing Georgia Tech v Wake at 3:30.  Big Time!