March 2009

Saw that Rich Rod has an official facebook account, and has william gholston as a friend. Are there any issues with non-contact periods for recruiting and how facebook fits into that? I mean what happens if he posts on his wall? Does that count?

Well, one: there's a major misconception about dead periods. Even in the deadest of dead periods, limited phone contact (the standard once per week) is permitted. And mail, electronic or otherwise, is basically unregulated. Instant messaging, though is considered a phone call.

As for Facebook and Twitter… those are gray areas. They aren't illegal as of yet—obviously—and enterprising coaches always looking to increase their profile amongst potential recruits. Since Facebook and Twitter have broadcast characteristics—anyone can follow Rodriguez—I think they'll probably be okay.

Brian:

On our forum, we have had a discussion regarding the physical size of Tate Forcier.  Some people feel that due to his lack of weight and height, not to mention the size of his arms, he will not be able to withstand the hits in the Big Ten.  What are your thoughts on this?

Geo

Any speculation on how injury-prone Tate Forcier might be because of his little toothpick arms would be just that: speculation. Some little guys seem to get injured all the time, like McGuffie and Hart. Others just keep on trucking without issue.

The coaches are obviously aware they've got a nasty combination of youth and lack of depth; indications are they'll protect Forcier as much as possible. Feagin's been running at quarterback in spring quite a bit and I think you'll see him and Robinson see duty in a quasi-wildcat* formation when they want to get QB carries.

Meanwhile, reports on Forcier say he's 1) elusive in the pocket and 2) effective throwing on the move. We might see a lot of moving pockets, and even when Forcier does bust out he's probably going to look to chuck it deep instead of take off. I meant those Drew Tate comparisons when I made them: smallish moxie-fied mobile passer.

Compare that to Threet, who was pretty fast in a straight line—see Wisconsin ramble—but had no change of direction and took a lot of ugly-looking hits simply because he wasn't agile enough to shield himself when it came time to meet a linebacker. When Forcier does run, which will be maybe a half-dozen times a game, he'll probably be at less risk than the ponderous Threet.

(Quasi-wildcat because, yes, they're QBs. But no, you shouldn't expect them to throw much or at all.)

What are the chances that Michigan will play one night game at home over the next 2-3 years?  I would love to see Michigan Stadium all lit up for a home game v ND, MSU, or PSU.  I don’t support the idea of playing “the Game” at night.  Can you please tell me what your thoughts are on this subject.

I'll probably answer this every six months until I die, but there was hullaballoo about this on the message board a while back so my take, again: Michigan should pick one Big Ten opponent and always play night games against them, but never against anyone else. That would be a nice tradition that would hype up what might be just another conference game, and it wouldn't be too much of a strain on the AD or the police department or whatever.

My primary candidates were Iowa and Wisconsin, since they're both respectable programs and there's usually something to play for when they arrive in town. I would prefer Iowa, as Michigan and Iowa have a long history of friendly rivalry and cooperation dating from Bump's tenure as Iowa AD.

I was wondering, any reason why U-M under RR is now issuing the same number to two different players one on offense and one on defense. OSU did this last year with Pryor and Jenkins. Last year there were two # 3s on U-M with Feagin and Brown. This year's roster has two different #5s (Forcier and I forget who on defense it was) as well as twin #3s. Is this because coaches are promising numbers to players in recruiting now?

Love the site (and yes I know I have too much time on my hands),
David Komer

Colleges often carry over 100 players, so it's impossible to have a roster without some overlap. The NCAA allows you to play as many guys as you want with the same number as long as only one of them takes the field at the same time, so it doesn't come up often, and if you switch positions midseason, like Carson Butler did, you can just change your number. So, yeah, it doesn't matter.

As far as why, I don't really know. Michigan's #1 is off limits now unless you're a supadupastar, which reduces the number of available (and always popular) single digit jerseys. And maybe the kids these days are pickier. I don't think it's a Carr-vs-Rodriguez trend, though.

Side note: My favorite number share in recent years was a couple years ago when Kevin Grady and one of the kickers shared #3, which was good for a special-teams doubletake a game.

3/27/2009 – Michigan 0, Air Force 2 – End of Season

Naurato (left) and Lebler; Ariel Bond from the Daily. 

Well, at least I don't have to make a tedious case that the way the NCAA hockey championship is determined is close to a random number generator. Reality has done that for me. Yost Built summarizes the chaos over the weekend:

-3 #1 seeds are out.
-3 #2 seeds are out.
-The only remaining #2 was down 4-2 with 40 seconds left in regulation. They scored with .8 seconds left to send the game into overtime.
-That wasn't even the latest a goal was scored to send a game to OT as UNH popped one in against North Dakota with .1 second left and won in OT.
-Cornell scored with 18 seconds left in regulation to beat Northeastern.
-A game was won in double OT on a shot that went through the net.

Hell, Michigan's loss against Air Force wasn't even the craziest thing to happen. Notre Dame got behind Bemidji State 4-0 and ended up losing 5-1. Literally the only team that adhered to expectation was BU, the sole one-seed to make the Frozen Four.

Today we stand at the edge of history, with Bemidji State—a team whose conference will cease to exist as soon as it is eliminated, if, you know, anyone bothers to do so before they win a national title—ticketed for the Frozen Four. Michigan outshot Air Force 44-13 and lost. In their next game, the Falcons were denied in double overtime by the above-mentioned shot that went through the net and was subject to a tortuous ten-minute review before it was declared a game-ending goal.

If ever there was a time for this particular youtube embed, this is it:

Does all this make me feel better? Well, yeah, kinda. When the misery was all Michigan's, it was weekend ruining. When Jeff Jackson (and the rest of the favored planet) can empathize, eh… that's single-elimination playoff hockey.

Travis Turnbull, who was this close to murdering a half-dozen people over the past couple months, probably disagrees.

-----------------------------

I was actually planning on doing something else on Friday but the looming possibility of knife-twisting overwhelmed all. At this point I care about the hockey team as much as I care about football—for which you can blame/credit the back-to-back Yost regionals earlier this decade—and there is no point at which a football team finds itself at the mercy of the fates like college hockey teams do during the tournament.

Maybe this is an effect of the limited information we have in football. There are so few games that teams become their results; "deserved" doesn't enter into it. Teams become legendary because they win all their games, or in some cases win all but one and get lucky, and then that it. They exist as their body of work.

Hockey teams have a body of work, which is thrown into the pairwise blender and spat out somewhere else and then they show up and hope. I've mentioned this before: pucks bounce. And sometimes a seemingly harmless shot from the half-boards finds the millimeter of space the opposing goalie provides, and sometimes your first-round draft pick defenseman and senior captain gets walked and sometimes the team you're rooting for seems bound and determined not to score any goals that don't bore a hole through the opposing goalie and then you scream profanities and go mope until you fall asleep.

So ends Michigan's 2008-09 hockey season, and dude: lame. I wish I had something more enlightening to say about it, but when you outshoot the opponent by more than 3-1 and lose there's not much you can say except "goddammit."

Berenson himself drops the strange results from 97 (when Michigan had one of the great college hockey teams of all time and got bounced) and 98 (when a shell of the 97 team got hot in the tourney and won a national title) whenever someone puts a microphone in his face and asks him about his chances. I can almost rattle off his speech verbatim by this point: "the best team doesn't always win" etc, etc, etc.

But even if the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune are old hat by now, this one had to be incredibly disappointing. Michigan was up 2-0 in the CCHA championship game, looking to extend their streak in non-controversial games to 21-1. Ninety minutes later the scoreboard reads Michigan 1, Opponent 7 and the season is over without anything to mark its passage.

The picture above says it all: what the hell was that?

BULLETS

• Man, that second goal was a killer. It's two-on-two coming into the defensive zone and Mitera steps up in a completely insane way, creating an unnecessary two-on-one. If he's been on the ice a month you have to play him and hope; I don't think that play happens if Mitera has another season of experience behind him instead of rehab.
• Well… next year. Primary flight risks are Summers, Palushaj, and Caprusso. If you made me guess I'd say Palushaj is gone and the others return. Seniors are Mitera, Turnbull, Miller, Fardig, and Naurato. (Also Sauer.) No offense to any of those guys, but that's two fourth-liners and two third-liners who occasionally got sucked up into scoring lines for physical presence along the boards and so forth and so on. Lebler and Winnett should be able to step into those roles, and then you've got a probable second-round NHL draft pick at power forward plus the U18 team's leading scorer.

  The team should be very good again.

• Turnbull spent his last couple months in a Michigan uniform seriously pissed off (which was not entirely outside the bounds of reason), from the misconducts in the Ferris game to a wide variety of incidents with referees. I don't know why or anything, but it's worth noting.

Um, Michigan offered a random 5'9" guy from Texas named Tony Drake and Drake duly committed. He's probably a corner or a slot. Informative update coming.

Dallas Morning News; Drake is #5

(Not Particularly) Informative Update: Okay, Drake is definitely a running back/slot sort according to his Rivals video, which I took the unusual (for me) step of actually watching because there's very little information available on who this guy is outside of some brief mentions in game recaps. I guess we'll go with the format, but it's going to be silly-lookin' and sparse:

GURU RATINGS

Whee: Drake isn't ranked by anyone yet, except this guy at "Vype," who ranked Drake… uh… #13 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area:

13. Tony Drake, Skyline The Raiders are in a situation where they are producing multiple Division I recruits each season, and Drake will be another. He only rushed for 300 yards last season, but remember again like White, he had limited opportunities because Skyline has so many talented skill players. Drake is another back with 4.4 speed.

But that's regardless of class, so… yeah, might be like the fourth or fifth best back in Dallas this year. Jim Stefani has him the #175 receiver nationally.

OFFERS

Michigan was his first.

STATS

See above: stuck behind two seniors at Dallas powerhouse Skyline, Drake saw limited time and only acquired around 300 yards.

FAKE 40 TIME

See above: 4.4. Fake!

VIDEO

None available.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

The flimsy evidence here is even flimsier than normal, so take the following with a grain of salt.

Michigan has offered the junior backup of a talented senior again—this is a virtual replay of the Teric Jones recruitment—and are taking chance on the sparse playing time Drake acquired last year being representative of his talent. This is a risk. Given the lack of attention so far and the spots in which Drake shows up when someone does notice him, he's a mortal lock for three stars unless he has a crazy Terrance Robinson senior year.

I did watch the video, though, and the good news is that Skyline basically runs Michigan's offense. If you're going to make an offer based on just film it's nice if you don't have to make a lot of assumptions. Here there are none: the coaches have seen Drake do exactly what they'll ask him to do. They unearthed Slaton and Reynaud and so forth and so on and this is one of those positions at which Michigan can take a guy others might not get a lot of use out of and turn him into a pain-dealing jet engine.

I'm much less bothered about random three star running backs like Drake and Vincent Smith than I am about linebackers and defensive backs who don't have an unusual system to dominate in. If Michigan's staff gets leeway in their recruiting at one spot, it's tailback. They've earned it.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

There's a certain genre of recruit that is going to play a running back/slot hybrid like Dorrell Jalloh or Darius Reynaud at WVU, and Drake will be one of those guys. With three running backs graduating this year there's still plenty of room for others to come in, though they'll probably be larger angry moose sorts.

You may have noticed the absence of this feature the last two weeks. Brace for impact:

Update 3/17: Linked to video of MI LB Daniel Easterly,  articles on GA WR Tai-ler Jones, FL WR Kenny Shaw, OH WR DJ Williamson, GA QB Blake Sims, VA LB Aramide Olayanian, FL S Marvin Robinson, OH DE Darryl Baldwin, OH LB Jordan Hicks, OH RB Spencer Ware, SC QB Cornelius Jones, MI DE Will Gholston, MI DE CJ Olaniyan, OH OL Matt James, GA QB Blake Sims, FL WR Kenny Shaw, FL CB Spencer Boyd, MI CB Dior Mathis, MI RB Austin White, FL QB Christian Green, MI DE Will Gholston, FL LB Jeff Luc.

Added PA DE Dakota Royer, SC DE Brandon Willis, OH DE Marcus Rush(offer), OH LB Jewone Snow, MI OT Jarhuar Jackson, LA WR Drew Dileo, FL OL Brent Benedict, MI DE Tremondae Branch, SC DE Corey Miller. SC S Bashaud Breeland, FL RB Nickell Robey, MN OL Seantrel Henderson.

Didn't remove VA LB Aramide Olaniyan. He committed to Duke but still plans visits, which I am now considering "says Duke leads."

Moved OH OL Skyler Schofner to offered($, IIH). Also moved OH OL Andrew Donnal to offered. Downgraded FL WR Kenny Shaw to yellow; FSU leads for now. Moved MI QB Devin Gardner, OH LB Antonio Kinard, and OH WR DJ Williamson to committed, committed, and committed. Linked to Rivals camp recap with mentions of MD LB Josh Furman and MD RB Zach Zwinak. Jim S content galore. Scout top 100.

As always, some links from Varsity Blue.

Editorial Opinion: Jeepers. So, yeah, that's a ton of stuff. I'm going to ignore anything that's just "Recruit X has offers from team Y" and focus on things of more immediate relevancy.

Commitments

Three folks have joined the fold: OH LB Antonio Kinard, OH WR DJ Williamson, and MI QB Devin Gardner. Kinard got a somewhat useless  "Hello" post last week; profiles of Williamson and Gardner are pending.

Kinard and Gardner are the first recruits at their positions and don't require a lot of explanation: Michigan liked them, offered, and got commitments. Hurrah.

The pursuit and acquisition of Williamson, whose first and only offer is from Michigan, makes a lot more sense in the wake of Toney Clemons' departure, but that's still four receivers in this class, all of whom are 6'2"+ guys who aren't likely to end up in the slot. Even if Michigan uses a lot of receivers that seems like a larger than ideal haul.

Initial Rankings

There's a tendency for fans to overrate their team's early commits, but even accounting for that the results of the initial Rivals and Scout lists are disappointing. And strange.

Ricardo Miller, who Michigan fans expected to be a sure top 100 player and a potential top 50 guy, didn't make either top 100 list, ending up in the 100-200 range on both sites. Much-hyped Devin Gardner didn't make the Rivals 100 and checks in at just 77 on the Scout list. Marvin Robinson, who Michigan fans have been hearing about for two solid years as a rock-hard five-star lock, ended up #99 on Rivals and #182 on Scout.

Meanwhile, OH WR Jerald Robinson comes in at 149 on Scout, ahead of Miller. Robinson's offer list reads "Michigan" and ceases there; Miller has offers from Alabama, Florida, LSU, and so forth and so on forever and ever amen. "Strange" doesn't quite cover it.

There weren't any pleasant surprises outside of Robinson: Jackson, Williamson, and Kinard don't rank at the moment. Unless they go to a lot of combines—unlikely since they've committed—or have blowup senior years they're likely to be three-star sorts in February. Jackson, who's supposed to have Texas, LSU, and Florida offers, might have upward mobility.

Happy Trails

We're still in the phase of recruiting season when the board expands wildly with only the occasional early commitment helping reign it in, so there are many more guys entering your world than leaving. A couple departures, or guys who aren't quite departures yet but are 95% likely to be in the near future:

• VA LB Aramide Olayanian committed to… wait for it… Duke(!). He says he's solid but plans visits. If we have a better season than Duke he might reconsider or something. I've left him on the board because I'm irritated about deleting kids and then re-adding them once they open it back up; I don't think this one will matter.
• GA WR Tai-ler Jones doesn't have Michigan on his list of seven schools recently released. Given that, his dad's ND ties, and Michigan's jam-packed WR recruiting class, he's off the board.
• OH DE Darryl Baldwin is so under the spell of Tressel that he lists OSU first and Michigan State second, which is one "Notre Dame" away from being the world's most Michigan-unfriendly list. He is technically still listing M, so he remains on the board.
• OH OL Matt James has a top three of Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Cincinnati, which is another strong take on a Michigan-unfriendly list. .

Trending Poorly

• FL WR Kenny Shaw, Ricardo Miller's teammate at Orlando Dr. Phillips, had proclaimed Michigan his leader a few times, then said FSU was coming on, then said FSU and Michigan were his top two, and now says FSU leads($). Even though Michigan has a lot of receivers committed, that's a bit of a blow. Shaw's a talent with offers from the in-state Big Three and would play in the slot, a spot Michigan hasn't filled despite the receiver glut.
• FL QB Christian Green is sounding like an FSU lock despite the fact he'll play WR there.

Trending Well

Michigan is still looking for quarterbacks, as they can't decommit at the last second unless they've already signed up. GA QB Blake Sims, teammate of less-enthused WR Tai-ler Jones, has a top group of Michigan, Georgia, and West Virginia with the latter school trailing significantly. At one point he was favoring Michigan.

This is a place where Sims will be looking at a QB offer from M versus a sort-of-QB-sort-of-ATH offer from Georgia, which will help offset the negative geography we've got going on.

I'm not sure how verified Jim Stefani's statement about MI CB Dior Mathis is, but let's hope its "lots":

He has an early Michigan offer and Michigan has made a push to emerge as the prohibitive favorite over former leader Miami and several others.

Miami was the heavy leader until late in Mathis' junior year, when the Cass Tech thing took hold and he started looking more heavily at Michigan. This, then, certainly implies that Michigan is in strong position:

"Right now I know that I'm going to take [officials] to Michigan, Michigan State, Florida, Ohio State, and I don't know the other one yet. It's going to be Miami or USC."

Mathis was originally considered a heavy Miami lean, but he's not ready to decide just yet, "I'm high on Miami still but I don't want to just be on one school, I want to get to know everybody," Mathis said.

Mathis has already visited Miami, but unofficially, and actions seem to speak louder than words here. The 'Canes appear to be fading.

Elsewhere in Detroit, supposed Spartan lock Will Gholston may be more open than previously believed:

Gholston’s preference is to play linebacker at the college level and he feels the way Michigan would utilize him is similar to the position he played as a junior for Southeastern. That opportunity, along with the recent unofficial visits to Ann Arbor, has bolstered Gholston’s perception of the Wolverines.

"It's evolved a lot from where it was at first,” Gholston said. “I was looking, but I wasn't feeling them as much as I am feeling them now.”

Josh Helmholdt does declare Michigan State the "team to beat".

Despite that North Carolina chatter, Michigan remains the team to beat for FL S Marvin Robinson, though the lead is "slight." Quoth Robinson:

“I love the atmosphere at Michigan,” he said. “Also I have a good relationship with the coaches already. They’ve been recruiting me for a while and I’ve gotten to know them well.”

He says he’s being recruited by (quarterback) coach Rod Smith. “He’s a great guy,” Robinson said. “We’ve talked a lot about life and the little things too. He’s a good coach and I like how hard they are working to be on top again."

New Persons Of Note

A quick summary of where most of dozen-plus new additions to the board stand: "I have a Michigan offer and remain open."  Persons about which we can get even slightly more specific:

• MN OL Seantrel Henderson, the nation's consensus #1 recruit, took a visit and deposited this tantalizing quote on Helmholdt: “Michigan was great. I loved it more than any other college I’ve been to so far.”

  Other colleges on Henderson's visit list include Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan State, so Ohio State and Notre Dame and so forth and so on still lurk. Still, Henderson is now a possibility and hits the board.

• OH DE Marcus Rush picked up a Michigan offer, visited for Junior Day, and has declared Michigan his leader.
• MD LB Josh Furman's been impressive at various combines and picked up a Michigan offer a couple weeks ago. He's got a Dhani Jones vibe going:
  
  So there's that. Watch out for him at the next Decemberists show you end up at.