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October 2008

Tuesday Recruitin'

By Brian — October 28th, 2008 at 12:08 PM — 8 comments

Update 10/28: Articles on MD CB Travis Hawkins, video of TX WR commit Dewayne Peace, CA QB commit Tate Forcier, NC OL Travis Bond, MI DT Will Campbell, MI S Thomas Gordon. Local interviews with MD CB Travis Hawkins, 2010 FL S Marvin Robinson, and 2010 MI WR commit Jeremy Jackson.

Added FL WR Willie Haulstead (FSU commit but visited for the MSU game).

Removed TX WR Josh Gordon (not recruiting), MN WR Bryce McNeal.

There's also pictures and scouting reports for the Cass Tech kids from Next Generation Sports and a couple articles on the big MSU recruiting weekend. Here's the second.

2010 stuff: profile on FL CB Lo Wood, brief article on FL WR Ricardo Miller that mentions he's "still solid." Good to know since he committed two weeks ago.

Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here.

So.

Michigan's big recruiting weekend came and went without any commitments, which is unfortunate. It's pretty rough out there with all he negativity and the 2-6 and all that; hopefully Michigan can hold it together over the next few months, bring home a recruiting class around #10, and then start building for 2010. You can tell the

The reaction out there is just about all locked behind paywalls; it's the usual, with most players saying "everyone's even." I don't think Michigan moved anyone to the extent it would change their commitment: FL S Vlad Emilien looks like a good possibility, but teammate and FL CB Josh Robinson is likely to stay close to home.

Homegrown items.

These have all been featured on the blog so you likely know about them, but Thomas VanHaaren has been interviewing various prospects. MD CB Travis Hawkins has given off an Oregon vibe earlier and did so explicitly in VanHaaren's latest:

Oregon is my dream school. I took a visit, and I like the coaches. Their facilities are ridiculous man, and the players are real cool too.

Accursed Nike money! The Ducks seem likely to win out here.

In the boat.

Tate Forcier remains in the boat, and here's some video for you from the youtubes:

Faster than I thought he might be, though I think his level of competition is pretty weak.

Get in the boat!

Your weekly-ish article on MI DT Will Campbell and this blog's weekly-ish attempt to reassure you that Thor is indeed coming this way:

The competition for Campbell comes from some of the nation’s top programs. LSU is one of those contenders, and they already boast a recruiting success at Cass Tech, having lured offensive lineman Joseph Barksdale to Baton Rouge from the class of 2007. Miami is another program pushing hard for Campbell, and he has set an official visit to Coral Gables for the weekend of Dec. 14.

USC and Georgia have also been named as potential official visit destinations by Campbell. The Trojans offered him a scholarship early in his recruitment, but after traveling to Cass Tech last spring they came away feeling this is one state of Michigan target they would have trouble getting away from the Wolverines.

That should make you feel better, since it's one school not putting on a full court press. And it's USC, which will recruit anyone from anywhere as long as they've got five stars next to their name.

You are not returning to the boat.

MN WR Bryce McNeal…

GH: Have you narrowed it down to a top five yet?
BM: I’ve got a top 6, right now it’s Oregon, Texas Tech, Penn State, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Colorado.

GH: I didn’t hear Michigan on that list?
BM: I’ve been to Michigan three times, I don’t feel like I need an official. They’re kind of at the bottom of my list, that was kind of the reason for de-commiting, I just feel that there are other options out there, I want to take some other looks, and go from there.

GH: Have you told Michigan they are no longer an option for you?
BM: No, we don’t talk as often as we used to. It’s not any kind of grudge, I just kind of fell off, I talk to the coaches every once in a while, they’re still great guys, I just don’t feel like that’s the place for me.

…is not coming back. I've removed him.

Scouting Cass.

Stumbled across a blog named "Next Generation Sports" that travels around the state scouting football and basketball teams; they caught Cass Tech's city championship semifinal against Cody. Relevant names were plentiful:

GAME MVP- Teric Jones, Cass Tech Jones finished with 161 yards and two TDs and constantly picked up chunks of 20 yards. He is just sick in the open field with great cut back ability and field vision.

Thomas Gordon, Cass Tech- Gordon could have also been MVP with his 146 rushing yards and two TDs. His play at safety was limited to long passing downs but you can't fault the coaching staff because Gordon is still favoring a hamstring injury and you can afford to lose your QB.

William Campbell, Cass Tech- just a pure beast and physical presence on the line. Speed, strength, technique- he has the whole package but more importantly he is a true team leader. Campbell is constantly firing up his teammates and slapping hands. He had a pair of sacks but put Hall on his back at least 6 times.

There's more, including some good pictures.

Juniors and such.

Though MI S Marvin Robinson didn't commit at the MSU visit like many expected he would, I don't think there's a whole lot to worry about:

TOM: Have you been working on any other players?

MARVIN: Ricardo Miller I know has been working on Lo Wood. I talked to Chris Dunkley, when we were at the Florida-Miami game. I’m trying to get him up to the game this weekend at Michigan.

Michigan remains the heavy leader, IMO.

Meanwhile, there's yet another Florida secondary kid on the radar: Scout has an article up titled "FL Jr CB Coming to UM – with friends?" Articles titled that give away more in their header than they contain in their body; that cornerback in question is FL CB Tyler Blandin and he might be one to watch over the next few months.

Etc.: Entertaining fluff on MI S Thomas Gordon from Mick McCabe; also depressing note on his car.

  • 8 comments

Travis Hawkins Interview

By TomVH — October 28th, 2008 at 1:37 AM — 16 comments
Filed under:
  • Michigan
  • Recruiting
  • travis hawkins

Thomas VanHaaren interviews MD CB Travis Hawkins.

 One of the top cornerback recruits on Michigan's board is Travis Hawkins. Travis is 5' 11" 180 pounds, and he runs a 4.42 40. He's considered a 4 star by the recruiting sites, and has only been playing at that position for this year. He's a talented kid, that has a lot of upside on both sides of the ball. Take a look at what he had to say.

TOM:   How has your recruitment been so far?

TRAVIS:   It’s been going well.  I’ve been to Michigan and Oregon on my officials. I was supposed to take one to Penn State this past weekend, but our game was cancelled because of a power outage so I couldn’t go.  I’m going to Maryland and Florida State also.

TOM:   What's your favorite part?

TRAVIS:   Just knowing that I’m wanted by the top colleges. Some of the calls from the coaches are pretty cool, to talk to guys that are famous. The stuff you have to go through is a lot, but it’ll be worth it.

TOM:   Are you down to a top 5 or top 3? Who are they?

TRAVIS:   I have a top 5. Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and WVU and Central Florida are in the mix too.

TOM:   When narrowing it down to a top 5, what factors in to that?

TRAVIS:   Academics are a big part, the environment on game day, my recruiting class is important to me, if I develop a bond with the other recruits. I’m a people person; I want to get along with my future team mates.

TOM:   Is everyone recruiting you at cornerback?

TRAVIS:   Most schools feel like I can play both sides of the ball, Central Florida will let me decide. Michigan said I can play both sides. Most likely it will be corner; I’m still deciding what I want to play.

TOM:  I read that you liked Michigan and Oregon; they seem to be who you talk about most. What stands out with them, and what are the differences?

TRAVIS:   Michigan’s academic advisors were the best of any visits. They are really glued to their success.  Coach Rodriguez is really relevant, he’s a good coach. Maryland is up there too, and my mom wants me to go there, and stay close to home. The coaches are cool and I really get along with the players too. Oregon is my dream school. I took a visit, and I like the coaches. Their facilities are ridiculous man, and the players are real cool too.

TOM:   Do you think that you and Jason Ankrah will be a package deal?  Are you both looking at different schools?

TRAVIS:   We’d like to be a package deal, but some schools he’s looking at and I’m not. Where ever I go I hope he goes, but it’s not a make or break thing.

TOM:   What happened with Penn State? He tried to commit and then didn’t?

TRAVIS:   It was a miscommunication between the two; they’ll take him whenever he’s ready. Penn State is everything I’m looking for in a school. We both like it a lot; I’m going to set up another official there soon.

 

TOM:   Is playing early a factor in deciding where you go?

TRAVIS:   Yea it is. Most likely I’m going to graduate early; anywhere I go I feel like I could compete, either on offense or defense.

TOM:   Has anyone put out any offers with conditions? If we don't get this guy, then we want you?

TRAVIS:   No, I haven’t heard any of that. No coaches have put that out there for me, which is good.

TOM:   When do you plan on committing?

TRAVIS:   My date was November 3rd, but I’m pushing it back to the first week in December, or if I take a couple more officials, I might just commit where ever I feel comfortable.

TOM:   Is it hard to stay grounded, and stay focused with your newfound celebrity?

TRAVIS:   Not really, I try to put it in the back of my mind. There are a lot of people in my community that look up to me, so it’s good to be known. But you got to know how to handle it. I’m handling it well. The all American stuff, I’ll be playing in the Army All American game. Where ever I go, I’m still going to stay close with the people in my community.

TOM:   What do you bring to the table? What are your strengths and weaknesses?

TRAVIS:   My aggressiveness is definitely a strength, the way I play both the pass/run, and this is my first year playing corner so they don’t look at my last year’s film. They look more at my potential. They see me playing corner, even though I played safety my junior year.

TOM:   What are other coaches saying about Michigan this year?

TRAVIS:   Nothing really, they’re having a down year and coaches bring that up. There’s nothing really negative that they say.

TOM:  It seems like you've got a good training program for yourself, and you run a 4.42, is there anything you want to improve on for College?

TRAVIS:   I want to work on my backpedal, if I work on my start on my 40 I think I could get it faster. I want to learn the skills a little better, since I haven’t played corner too long. Mike Barwis at Michigan was ridiculous. He was saying stuff I’ve never heard of. He had me doing some stuff in the weight room, I couldn’t believe it.

TOM:  I can't be too biased, but Michigan will have some of the best facilities in 2010, there’s 110,000 fans at every game, good national TV exposure, the players consistently go to the NFL. Is there anywhere else that compares with what Michigan brings to the table?

TRAVIS:   I mean just knowing it’s Michigan, the tradition is crazy. I really like the academics part and the coaches. I talked to Coach Rodriguez a lot he was real cool. So yea it’s a good place to be.

  • TomVH's blog
  • 16 comments

Mailbag!

By Brian — October 27th, 2008 at 2:07 PM — 53 comments

While the end of Michigan's bowl streak is disappointing in and of itself, there's more than pride at stake.  Specifically, I haven't heard anything about the value of the month's worth of extra practices that come with a bowl bid.  It seems as though a team such as Michigan, with all of its youth and inexperience, would benefit quite a bit from the extra practice time.  Any thoughts on this and if it sets back Michigan a bit?

Jeff

There is indeed some value in the extra practices that would come from a bowl bid, but quantifying that is impossible. I don't think the effect will be huge; these days college football is a year-round activity and the hours the players don't spend in supervised practice will be spent doing some other sort of football-related activity. Any effect there will be small.

Have you ever seen Raiders of the Lost Ark?  At the end of the movie the bad guys open the ark and everyone that is looking at it is melted (or something along those lines).  I'm convinced that this will happen if I ever watch Michigan's offense again when Sheridan is in the game.  Is there a way to watch this that will not cause me to go blind/die?

-Deryl Garland

Suggestions:

  • Drink. Bob Huggins has actually seen the face of God 46 times with no ill effects.
  • Blind yourself now. This will prevent you from having to do it later.
  • Bet on Michigan's opponent. This is called a "hedge," and works great in the financial industry!
  • Remember that football is just a game, and that you have a beautiful wife and children and a job you love and that your life is going to be okay just as soon as the game is over. If you don't have the wife/kid/job thing going for you, there's always disassembling and re-assembling pens.
  • Look into Buddhism, which teaches you to let go of earthly cares other than three-man lines on potential running downs. Even Buddha hates that.

A three parter on the future:

Brian,

Given the generally mediocre play of our offensive line this year, I was wondering if you had any inside information that you could share with your readers about some of the freshman who are redshirting. Are any showing great promise in practice? Given the performance - or lack thereof - of our O line, I am concerned that some of the freshman may be even worse than those who are currently starting and playing.

The two names that keep coming up are Ricky Barnum and Patrick Omameh. As far as I can tell, most insider expect Barnum to be starting at one of the interior line positions—most likely left guard—next year, and for four subsequent ones. Omameh is a surprise name, as he was one of the last additions to the class and was by far the lowest-rated, but he saw a senior-year growth spurt that got him offers from State, Michigan, and (eventually) Ohio State; there's obviously some potential there.

Rocko Khoury, meanwhile, got some buzz earlier in the year as a guy who was doing well and might actually step in at center if Molk struggled. (This, of course, is the tantalizing possibility of a Moose and Squirrel combo on the interior OL.) He could push for time next year. Dann O'Neill has a great frame and should be very good eventually, but came in needing significant work with technique and strength; next year might be too early from him.

I haven't heard much about Mealer or Wermers. Mealer had a shoulder injury that kept him out much of fall practice, so his absence from the whispers is understandable; Wermers has no such mitigating factor and would appear to be slightly behind.

I am hopeful that that is not the case and that the coaches are letting them develop slowly to help next year when, in all likelihood, we'll have a new starting QB. Similarly, our linebackers have been inconsistent, at best, and not particularly effective. Fitzgerald was a prized recruit, but is only playing on special teams. Any word on him or anyone else who may be redshirting?

Linebacker is going to be rough. Redshirt freshman Brandon Herron hasn't seen the field at all despite playing behind a motley crew and appears on his way to Brandon Logan "oh, yeah, that guy" territory. We saw Marell Evans briefly, and then not again. And two of the true freshmen linebackers are already gone. So, the only guy on the roster we'll see next year is Kenny Demens. Demens is a WLB, though, and Mouton appears to be turning into serviceable player, so he might have to wait a couple additional years before seeing playing time.

Everything relies on extensive improvement from the two starting sophomores and Fitzgerald panning out in a big way; Michigan has no margin for error here until the 2009 recruiting class is ready to play.

I've heard pretty good things about both Demens and Fitzgerald, FWIW.

Other than BooBoo, I cannot think of any freshman DB who can be counted on for high caliber help next year. Let's face it. This year is dismal. Id rather think about the future. While I'm hopeful that we'll continue to recruit well and bring in new talent, I wondering about some we already have. No one seems to be reporting on it.

Thanks, Ron

Well, Brandon Smith and JT Floyd are both redshirting and may be of some assistance; also Michael Williams is working himself into some playing time and doing sort of okay.

Hi Brian,

In the aftermath of another 3rd and long -> disaster scenario, I'm wondering if Shafer has any proven track record against the pass.  Does his scheme actually work, or does he just rely on pass rushing to cover up for a weak secondary?  Although our safeties are obviously questionable, our cornerbacks should not be, and the pass defense seems porous at best.  When Shafer was hired at Stanford, people assumed the major drop in pass defense was just due to an improved run defense, but could there be a systemic flaw here?

Matt N.

There is another possibility: Michigan's pass defense last year was overrated by the numbers. Opponent pass efficiency ratings in groups (I consider 60 to be bad despite being "average" because all BCS teams these days inflate their statistics in the nonconference schedule):

  • The Good: Oregon (#42, but Dennis Dixon was #3 when healthy), Florida (#2)
  • The Eh: Appalachian State (#6 but in I-AA), Purdue (#48), Michigan State (#44), Wisconsin (#40)
  • The Bad: Penn State (#74), Northwestern (#66), EMU (#85), Illinois (#80), Minnesota (#76)
  • The Horrific:  ND (#113)
  • The Not Applicable: Ohio State (#12)

(Ohio State, of course, got a small lead and entirely stopped passing, so their #12 is meaningless.) By my count here every common opponent to date save Wisconsin is better this year as all return quarterbacks or replace Anthony Morelli with Not Anthony Morelli; trading Dennis Dixon for Brian Johnson isn't that far off.

Meanwhile, at Michigan out went the two starting safeties. And how much of Michigan's tragic fall in pass efficiency defense is due to the near-total incompetence of their replacements? A hell of a lot. How much of that is the fault of the new staff? 10%.

I'm beginning to get as disillusioned with Scott Shafer as all the rest of you are, but it is way, way too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

However: yeah, Michigan's insistence on bringing an extra safety (or two!) on the field in nickel situations instead of a corner is mystifying, as is their inability to keep four DL on the field in that package. Michigan fans were told Shafer was a blitz-happy, man-to-man guy; this year we've gotten almost all zone coverage and a lot of three-man rushes. I don't get any of that.

  • 53 comments

BlogPoll Ballot Disaster (Week 9)

By Brian — October 27th, 2008 at 1:24 PM — 11 comments
Rank Team Delta
1 Texas --
2 Alabama --
3 Penn State --
4 Oklahoma 2
5 Southern Cal --
6 Florida 1
7 Texas Tech 4
8 Georgia 1
9 Oklahoma State 5
10 Missouri 7
11 Utah 1
12 Ohio State 4
13 Minnesota 12
14 Michigan State 12
15 North Carolina 11
16 Tulsa 10
17 TCU 2
18 Oregon 8
19 LSU 6
20 Boise State 6
21 Ball State 5
22 Florida State 4
23 California 3
24 West Virginia 2
25 Connecticut 1


Dropped Out: Georgia Tech (#12), Pittsburgh (#15), South Florida (#16), Boston College (#18), Maryland (#20), Cincinnati (#21), Northwestern (#22), Arizona (#23), Virginia Tech (#24).

Oh, God, did I just put Minnesota #13? Why do all the teams I put from 11-25 all die every week? Do I have to start considering a team (Virginia) that lost to Duke by 30 points?

Help me. Someone tell me what to do. This is probably my least favorite ballot ever.

  • 11 comments

Last Known Good Configuration

By Brian — October 27th, 2008 at 11:32 AM — 55 comments
Filed under:
  • column-type things
  • henri the otter of ennui
  • michigan state

10/25/2008 – Michigan 21, Michigan State 35 – 2-6, 1-3 Big Ten

Here's a tip for Windows users who suddenly find their computer freezes on bootup: instead of booting into safe mode and wasting a day running disk checks and searching Google for advice, just select "last known good configuration" and save yourself the trouble.

If only that worked for football teams.

It does not, so we're back with the same story again: mostly outplayed and totally outgained. The only reason it was even somewhat competitive was Michigan State's determination to waste their massive advantage in yardage, but even their essential Sparty-ness couldn't blow this one.

I was completely wrong in the preview, wherein I suggested Michigan would prove itself slightly better on a down-to-down basis and be done in by more critical errors, and I've now given up any semblance of hope the team is going to turn a corner this year. I figure they might beat Purdue since the Boilers look pretty awful; everything else looks like a stretch.

So, like, what should I do with the rest of this season? I don't have anything interesting to write about on Mondays, as you can tell, just another rehash of "Michigan is epically bad and they have just lost by many points." Game previews seem as pointless the last four games. UFRs… well, I guess I have to do those. But expending a ton of energy covering the last few games of a season that might end up 4-8 at best seems unproductive.

In fact, it's time to bring back Henri, the otter of ennui.

henri-the-otter-of-ennu 

Henri's crushing existential dread pins him to ground. Mine makes me go play videogames. I put it to you: what should I do over the course of the next month?

BULLETS

  • What does it take to get fired around these parts? This has been all over the place by now so you already know this, but the NCAA rulebook has a specific provision indicating that an airborne player who touches the pylon is out of bounds.

    I was in the stadium so missed the analysis that followed the touchdown, but everyone was pretty sure that call was bogus from the get-go, and I privately wondered if this could possibly be the work of the infamous Jim Augustyne and, yes, it was.

    Augustyne was the guy responsible for what's now the second-worst call in Big Ten history when he ruled that Chad Henne's incomplete forward pass was indeed a fumble and awarded Domata Peko a long touchdown on the return. (That call is second-worst because it was a missed opportunity to overturn the play; on this one Augustyne actually screwed up something called correctly on the field.) Both calls required a total ignorance of the rulebook anyone who's watched football for ten or so years would know.

    Augustyne should be given a gold watch and told to stay away from replay booths. Can someone dig up gambling debts and maybe an arrest or two for domestic violence?

  • Michigan's inability to run against State is the last straw as far as hope for the offensive line goes. They couldn't block the Big Ten's iffiest defensive line; there's no hope until next year.
  • I really don't get Michigan's decision to keep Cissoko on the bench in favor of a third (bad) safety in the nickel package. Late in the game white receiver named White (we're from White!) lined up with Charles Stewart in man coverage; his out route was open by yards and yards. As I've mentioned before, I'm willing to accept the idea Scott Shafer is working with a really shaky back seven; I'm less willing to accept the wacky tactical decisions that clearly aren't working.
  • Speaking of, the one time we go to a three man line on something approximating a running down was Ringer's 60 yard touchdown.
  • 55 comments

Michigan State Open Thread

By Brian — October 25th, 2008 at 12:09 PM — 1 comment

Right, I had no intention of not having a liveblog last week; I just plain forgot. People new to the thing below should check out the Live Blog Chaos Mitigation Post. Activities should start around three.

  • 1 comment

Preview: Michigan State

By Brian — October 24th, 2008 at 1:59 PM — 37 comments

The Essentials

michigan-state-logo

WHAT Michigan vs. Michigan State
WHERE Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 3:30 EST, October 25th, 2008
THE LINE Michigan State by 4.5*
TELEVISION ABC Regional, mirrored on ESPN2

*(NCAA football lines courtesy BetUS sportsbook)

Run Offense vs. State

While it lasted, Michigan's performance against Penn State was a thing to behold, but how much of that was the unexpected debut of a north-south MINOR RAGE offense and how much is replicable week-to-week? I don't presume to tell you.

State's defense, meanwhile, uh…

Team Rushes Yards Avg
Cal 36 224 6.2
Notre Dame 22 16 0.7
Indiana 28 189 6.8
Iowa 39 186 4.8
Northwestern 32 176 5.5
Ohio State 52 216 4.2

This is probably worse than it looks, as I haven't excised sacks in these numbers and a big chunk of Ohio State's carries were part of the effort to keep OSU's winning margin under 70. This an awful rush defense unless it's playing Notre Dame. I dunno about that, you figure it out.

Maybe Michigan's ground game has turned the corner? If so, we should expect at least 5 YPC given the numbers above. If not—if that was our one trick and once it's scouted that's all folks—and we descend back into the depths from whence we came, we lose. Michigan has to put up numbers like those above to be in this game. End of story.

I suppose I should venture some sort of guess about this, yes? Well… I don't think we'll touch the 6 YPC Cal and Indiana did but this is not something that happens to you by accident, and Michigan's rushing offense has been erratic but seems to have found something. I think they'll put up something like 200 yards, although that's a low confidence prediction.

Key Matchup: Brandon Minor's RAGE versus Michigan State linebackers. For the first time all year Michigan had a north-south running game and Minor repeatedly made yards after contact; Michigan lifted itself off the ground.

Pass Offense vs. State

As per usual, if Steven Threet doesn't play please mentally replace this section with "HEAD FOR THE HILLS! ONLY THE STRONG WILL SURVIVE!"

Threet, bad elbows and all, was 9 of 13 for 84 yards against Penn State in about a half of action. While this is not exactly Tom Brady we're talking about, he was again pretty good in a tough situation on the road. Nick Sheridan is going to be a legend in ten years, but the kind you tell at night with a flashlight under your chin.

As far as State goes, it's hard to find a reasonable comparable in the opponents. State currently stands at #27 in passer efficiency but has faced off with the heroic likes of Ricky Stanzi, whoever Indiana's backup quarterback is, and a freshman Terrelle Pryor. Actually, those guys suck, so maybe they are reasonable comparables. Pryor is left off because that game got so out of hand so quickly that his stats are meaningless.

State opponents of potential relevancy:

Team Cmp/Att Yards YPA TD-Int
Cal 20/30 264 8.8 3-2
Notre Dame 24/41 242 5.9 1-2
Indiana 23/44 284 6.5 2-2
Iowa 15/22 158 7.2 1-1
Northwestern 34/61 283 4.6 1-2

These numbers are actually pretty good outside of the Cal game, which Michigan is not going to replicate, though the interceptions may or may not be a fluke. One negative to State's numbers is a relative dearth of sacks. They're just 73rd.

At this point we know what to expect: short throws to the outside guys, wheel routes to Odoms when he finds himself singled up with safeties or linebackers, the occasional unsuccessful screen.

Key Matchup: Threet versus anything that takes him off the field. So: Ortmann versus stuff.

Run Defense vs. State

You know Javon Ringer, also known as "the entire Michigan State offense." He's out there killing his NFL career three yards at a time. It's kind of amazing then, that Ringer is second nationally in rushing yards and Michigan State is… 52nd?

Yeah, 52nd, and #51 (Maryland) has 100 fewer carries! In fact, if you order teams by YPC instead of raw yardage State falls to 78th at 3.86. One spot behind them? Michigan at 3.85. One rushing attack has seen local media fall all over it in a rush to praise it. I leave you to guess which one.

I have a ton of respect for Ringer, but wow… this is not a good rushing offense. Michigan's gotten shredded by a couple opponents this year, but Penn State is #6 in YPC and Illinois #32. Hell, Michigan held Illinois 0.7 YPC under their average. Wisconsin, which basically runs the same scheme and is currently flailing around at 0-4 in the Big Ten and basically handled by Michigan, is at #46.

Sometimes I come to a conclusion and think to myself "oh, hell, do I really have to think this?" and then it turns out I do. Here's one: one week after giving up like eight YPC to Penn State, I expect Michigan will hold Ringer's average down under 4. Ringer will still get like 30 carries and will have one of those Mike Hart-versus-Penn State days, but unless Dantonio throws some sort of curve this should be the best day from the Michigan defense since the last time they played a team of cavemen.

Key Matchup: Ezeh and Thompson reading pulling linemen and getting to the f*#$ing ball.

Pass Defense vs. State

Q: How do you acquire the nation's #72 pass efficiency rating when you run 60% of the time?

A: You suck.

Q: But not nearly as a bad as Michigan.

A: Stipulated.

Right, Brian Hoyer was banged up and left the Michigan State-Ohio State game and there was a desultory cheer from those still in attendance. He is not particularly good. He is completing under 50% of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns to four interceptions.

Mark Dell is MSU's leading receiver with 24 catches, but not by much; freshman BJ Cunningham has 21 and Blair White 19. State goes to the pass as a play-action complement to Ringer and when they have to; long yardage situations are probably good.

Meanwhile, Michigan's secondary has been pretty much awful all year. The corners are making no plays; the obvious zone alignment has been incapable of covering guys; the linebackers are YAC machines. This is a battle of weaknesses, with one potential item that could swing it M's way: Graham and Jamison.

Key Matchup: Safeties reading play action probably. State's heavy focus on the run means they don't get a whole lot of pressure when they go play action—they've given up just seven sacks in eight games—and do get a lot of safeties sucking up into the play. Michigan safeties, meanwhile, have been… rough.

Special Teams

I definitely shouldn't have gone "eh" about special teams last week, as their implosion was a major factor in Michigan's implosion: kicks out of bounds, a blocked punt, horrible returns, etc. You know how dire the situation is.

The good news is that Michigan State's returns are nearly as dire. State is:

  • 86th in net punting
  • 98th in KO returns
  • 31st in punt returns

The punt returns should be irrelevant; Zoltan has had under 25% of his punts returned and those have gone for 3.4 yards each as there are gunners on the opponent in a snap. So all that looks like a slight advantage Michigan assuming there are some punt exchanges.

One advantage for State: Brett Swenson is 15 of 16 on the year. Don't expect a lot of misses from him.

Key Matchup: Michigan return units versus their general awfulness. State's return units have given up some nice returns; Michigan has to field the ball and not, like, fumble the hell out of it.

Intangibles

garfield-darn

garfield minus garfield 

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

  • Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.
  • Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.
  • Anyone other than Threet takes a snap at quarterback.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

  • Dave Molk gets his reach on. 
  • Johnson and Taylor look like they're going rack up big positive numbers.
  • The turnover margin is in Michigan's favor.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for They Have Two Losses We Have Two Wins, –1 for Slight Possibility The Hockey Team Replaces Their Pads With Anthrax, -1 for Their Castle Appears Built On Sand, About Which More Later, –1 for We Shut Wisconsin Down, Basically, +1 for Did I Mention The Two Wins?, +1 for Distinct Possibility We See SHERIDAN=DEATH.

Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for A Win Would Direct The Criticism Thataway; +1 for Big Recruiting Weekend, Too, +1 for The Implosion On The Spartan Internets Would Be A Joy Forever, –1 for General Whatever When You're 2-5.)

Loss will cause me to... avoid a lot of links to stupid columns in the local papers.

Win will cause me to... laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

If you accept the premise that turnovers are really random, Michigan State isn't as good as their record and Michigan isn't as bad as theirs. Turnovers have been a bitch to Michigan and a god to State.

Check it: State is +5 in turnover margin a week after being –5 against Ohio State. In State's two games against tomato cans they were –1, leaving them +11 against the five teams on the schedule that were tossups to start the year. Or, in chart form:

msu-turnovers

This is how MSU is 3-1 in the Big Ten despite being outgained on a per-play basis in every game. Michigan, meanwhile, is 111th in turnover margin.

Of course, it's been hard to watch Michigan this year and conclude that turnovers are actually random. Michigan's turnovers are part bad luck and part epic suck; if you made me guess what the margin would be in this game I'd peg it at –1.

So, do I think a Michigan team with a –1 turnover margin and a 50 yard deficit in special teams can beat Michigan State? Well… I think so a lot more than I did before I started this preview. Honestly, if you compare the ground games Michigan State has been getting by on boring repetition and Michigan has been erratic but not flat awful. State's run defense, on the other hand… flat awful. And Michigan, again, has been erratic.

The passing games seem like washes. Both are infrequently deployed, poor, and as likely to result in disaster for the offense as for the defense. It'll be close, and I think Michigan will seem like the better team down-to-down; I also think they'll be done in by a couple enormous errors.

AND ONE MORE THING: Rick Comley has suspended two members of the hockey team for their role in the enormous fight that got a sophomore defenseman sent to the hospital. Mark Dantonio has suspended nobody, even though by now he must know all the particulars.

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

  • Minor outgains Ringer.
  • Special teams continue to screw up in ways unfathomable.
  • Michigan State, 24-20.
  • 37 comments

We Owned Penn State: Retrospective Part II

By Brian — October 24th, 2008 at 12:00 PM — 13 comments

Part II, obviously. Here is part I, covering 2002-2007.

1997 - Judgment Day

THE SETUP: #1 Penn State and #5 Michigan are both undefeated heading into the game; Penn State has a three-game win streak against the Wolverines in their fourth year as a Big Ten school. Will Michigan ever beat the Nittany Lions again?

WHAT WENT DOWN: Michigan launched a nuclear bomb, obliterating Penn State from the opening snap. Glenn Steele sacks Mike McQueary on the first snap and that sets the tone. Michigan is up 10-0 in the first quarter when Daydrion Taylor delivers one of the most violent hits in college football history:

That was the end of Taylor's career.

Michigan goes up 24-0 at halftime, wins 34-8, and claims #1 in the polls the next week.

IN THE AFTERMATH, PENN STATE FANS WHINE ABOUT: Missing the national championship game in 1994.

1998 – Shutout The First

THE SETUP: Michigan has recovered from their season opening humiliations against the option to win six straight; Penn State enters 6-1 with the lone loss coming to Ohio State.

WHAT WENT DOWN: Not much of interest. Michigan shuts Penn State out 27-0; with Michigan up 10-0 at the beginning of the first quarter Penn State gets the ball down to the one, goes for it on fourth and goal, and gets stoned.

With a minute left in the first half, Michigan hits a big screen to Anthony Thomas, then throws a fade to Tai Streets for a touchdown, and that's all she wrote.

(Wolverine Historian highlights.)

IN THE AFTERMATH, PENN STATE FANS WHINE ABOUT: Their short yardage package.

1999 - Brady

THE SETUP: Penn State was undefeated until the week before, when they lost 24-23 to Minnesota; this was the high-water mark of the Mason era. Meanwhile, Michigan rolls into town at 7-2. It's David Terrell and Tom Brady versus Lavar Arrington and company.

WHAT WENT DOWN: This was the game with the famous transcontinental play where Brady left the field, faking an injury, and Henson came in to throw a screen to Johnson. Said screen was backwards; Johnson threw it back, and Michigan got 30 yards on an eventual touchdown drive.

Early in the third, Tom Brady would hit Marcus Knight running wide open on a post route, putting Michigan up 17-7. Penn State then ran off 20 straight points, leaving Michigan down ten points with just under six minutes left in the game. It was at this point Tom Brady started his rise to supermodel-nailing All-American ubermensch:

And with that, Michigan was in Penn State's head.

IN THE AFTERMATH, PENN STATE FANS WHINE ABOUT: This is the game that really set some of the nuts on BWI off, most famously "MarshCreek," who dedicates about a month of his life every year to parsing Michigan's last two drives frame by frame. Apparently, Michigan was holding on every play.

2000 – They're Bad Now?

THE SETUP: No one expects this game to be particularly competitive, as Penn State enters with a 4-6 record and a loss to Toledo (albeit a Toledo team that would go 10-1). Michigan is just 6-3 and is coming off the 54-51 loss to Northwestern, but Penn State is bad, man.

WHAT WENT DOWN: It's close until late in the second half, when Michigan puts together a touchdown drive and immediately picks off Penn State, getting the ball at the 20; Michigan takes a 17-3 lead to the locker room.

A throwback screen puts Michigan up 27-3 early in the fourth, and that's all.

(Wolverine Historian highlights)

IN THE AFTERMATH, PENN STATE FANS WHINE ABOUT: Not going to a bowl game. Michigan would never do that!

2001 – What-Evah

THE SETUP: Penn State starts off 0-3 in one of the strangest schedules I've ever seen: the opener is a Miami team that would go undefeated, then there are two byes before Wisconsin. Anyway, no one expects much out of Penn State going up against Michigan, 3-1 with their only loss that fluke-fest against Washington.

WHAT WENT DOWN: No one got much out of Penn State, as they were shut out 20-0. Michigan opened with four Epstein field goal attempts, the first of which was an unsuccessful fake and the fourth of which was missed, before getting a touchdown right before the half; Zach Mills was sacked a jillion times and Penn State never threatenened to score.

(Wolverine Historian highlights.)

IN THE AFTERMATH, PENN STATE FANS WHINE ABOUT: The direction of the program: this is the second consecutive losing season for them.

  • 13 comments

Upon Further Review: Defense vs Penn State

By Brian — October 23rd, 2008 at 2:58 PM — 11 comments
Filed under:
  • penn state
  • upon further review
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O35 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Yakety sax Mouton -16
Snap flies over Clark's head.
O19 2 26 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Waggle hitch Warren 15
Warren(-1) gives the receiver plenty of time and space on the rollout (cover -1) and there's a makeable third down. Pressure -1, as well.
O34 3 11 Shotgun 3-wide Okie Pass TE Out Williams Inc
Both linebackers blitz and are picked up (pressure -1), leaving Clark in the pocket for too long. He can't find anyone past the sticks, coming down to a decently covered TE (cover +1, Williams +0.5), who he overthrows badly. Williams was tackling as the ball arrived and would have brought this up short of a first down if complete.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O26 1 10 Single wing-ish? Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Warren 20
Um... or something. This is a traditional I-formation with Derrick Williams lined up next to the fullback in a two-point stance. Anyone who knows what to call this let me know. They hand off and go off tackle; Mouton blitzes upfield and Graham(-0.5) impacts the fullback, but there's a crease. Warren(-1) is sitting around the LOS; Williams cuts him to the ground, allowing Royster outside. Very poor from Warren; he must keep contain.
O46 1 10 Shotgun 2-back Base 4-3 Pass Screen Mouton Inc
Both linebackers blitz; this could be ugly, but Mouton(+0.5) gets in fast enough to force a high throw that is dropped. (Pressure +1.)
O46 2 10 Shotgun empty Base 4-3 Run QB counter draw Thompson 8
Another blitz sees both linebackers head to the backside of the play; PSU pulls a guard around and shoots upfield. This is terrible recognition from Thompson(-1), who fails to read the pulling guard until he's way out of position, and a poor read from Graham(-1), who's either pulling into a short zone or stunting or something. Thompson(+1) does pound Clark as he nears the first down, popping the ball out. Michigan recovers.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O48 1 10 Shotgun empty Base 4-3 Pass Circle Mouton 8
A little circle route about four yards downfield; Mouton(-0.5) takes a poor angle to the ball and concedes an extra three or four yards after the catch he doesn't have to.
M44 2 2 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Zone read counter Harrison 44
Wow. Okay, there's all this stuff in the middle of the field, but watch Harrison(-2) run himself right into the slot receiver's cut block and fall to the ground spectacularly, turning this from a first down into a touchdown. This seems like a pretty crappy play from Ezeh(-1), too, who just sort of sat back, getting shoved by an OL and missing a diving tackle attempt on Royster when he spun free of the mess in the middle of the line.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-7, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O40 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Zone read counter 3
Thompson(+1) finally takes the outside shoulder of the lead blocker ( a pulling guard) on this, forcing it back inside. Taylor has flowed down the line, tackling on the cutback.
O43 2 7 I-Form 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Waggle cross -- Inc
Martin(+0.5) is stunting outside and provides decent pressure(+0.5 on the perimeter. This may force a low throw on this, which is to an open receiver (cover -1) but low and tough to catch and eventually dropped.
O43 3 7 Shotgun empty 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Hitch Mouton 1
Effective blitz is about to get Ezeh(+0.5) in on Clark, so Clark dumps it off on a four-yard hitch (pressure +1); Mouton (-1) is way far away (cover -1) and looks like he's about to overrun the play when the receiver starts juggling the catch, eventually ending up back at the LOS and getting swarmed. Lucky.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 12 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O31 1 10 I-Form 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Out Warren 7
Warren(-1) in obvious bail coverage from before the snap, so this is a really easy read for both QB and receiver; it's open for a chunk of yards. (Cover -1.)
O38 2 3 I-Form Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Thompson 26
This is just effed from the snap; Graham(-1) gets walled off and Thompson(-1) shoots upfield, leaving zero people on the corner. This is a million easy yards for Royster.
M46 1 10 I-Form 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Pitch Thompson -1
Graham(+0.5) does a good job stringing it out and Taylor(+0.5) gets a lot of push as he flows down the line, breaking up some of the timing on the blocking. Royster's cut up is met by an authoritative Thompson(+1) tackle that gets Spielman all excited. Awww, he's so cute when someone makes a good tackle.
M47 2 11 Ace empty 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Cross Ezeh 9
Three-man rush (ick); Ezeh(-1) overruns his zone expecting a hitch, opening up this little crossing route for good yardage. (Cover -1) Good tackle from Mouton holds it short of the first down.
M38 3 2 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run QB sweep Graham 2
They get it but no complaints from here; Graham(+1) did a great job of stringing it out, making contact behind the LOS. He just doesn't have enough momentum to prevent Clark from diving out and getting the first down.
M36 1 10 I-Form Base 4-3 Pass TE Flat Thompson 9
Graham(+1) beats the LT, getting pressure on Clark and forcing a quick throw. He dumps it out to the tight end for what would be a few yards; Thompson(-1) misses a tackle, turning this into something near a first down. (Pressure +1, cover -1)
M27 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Throwaway Graham Inc
Graham(+1) bulls the LT back into the quarterback, then disengages and attempts to tackle. Clark escapes the first attempt; Graham grabs his leg. Clark then chucks it OOB. He's inside the pocket here... is this grounding? (Pressure +1)
M27 3 1 I-Form Base 4-3 Run QB sneak -- -2
Clark fumbles the snap, and when the FB picks it up his knee is down. No one in the booth ever informs us there's a fumble.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(45), 17-7, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O16 1 10 Single wing-ish? Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Mouton -1
Excellent blitz from Mouton(+1) stones the fullback in the backfield and eventually drives him backwards. Graham(+0.5) has maintained good position on the outside, containing. Royster tries to jump back inside and is swarmed.
O15 2 11 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Screen Brown 4
Martin(-1) is actually tasked as a spy here and does not get to the running back releasing on PSU's middle screen; both linebackers have charged upfield and are out of the play. Brown attacked the play and got cut to the ground in front of Royster; Royster attempts to cut and slips. Lucky.
O19 3 7 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Hitch Mouton 6
Three man rush gives Penn State forever(pressure -1); Clark can't find anyone until he's running around thinking about taking off (cover +1). This is Royster, who's released into the flat way late. He makes the catch a couple yards short of the sticks and looks sure to get the first before Mouton(+1) makes a great, square tackle, driving him back. Penn State comes up just short.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 3 min 2nd Q. Okay, before we get to the next drive a note: Penn State starts it at the 41 due to two huge special teams mistakes. One is Criswell's personal foul. The other is Mathews failing to field a 38-yard punt and turning it into a 53-yard punt with no return. If those items don't happen Penn State has the ball at its 11 yard line and likely plays for halftime. Instead, this will be a touchdown drive.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O41 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Deep hitch Warren 17
Five man rush gets nowhere near Clark (pressure -1); Warren(-1) is well off the receiver on the catch (cover -1). Miss the tackle, too, allowing Butler to get OOB.
M42 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Waggle TE out -- Inc
This is open(cover -1); Penn State's TE drops the ball.
M42 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run Draw -- 10
Michigan screwed on this from the snap. We're in that stupid 3-3-5; PSU has two timeouts and two minutes and can obviously run the ball here. We're in a three-man rush with the DT dropping off into a spy, so both DE's are thinking pass rush only and head upfield, leaving four blockers against one DL and two pass-dropping LBs. Awful defensive call from Shafer.
M32 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run Counter -- 14
I have no idea what Michigan thinks it's doing because we're on a closeup when the ball snaps but they've overloaded one side and dropped Mouton off significantly; Penn State just runs off tackle. With no linebackers, this is easy. Meanwhile, no one reads the pulling guard and we get no safety fill.
M18 1 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Penalty Offsides Taylor 5
Taylor(-1).
M13 1 5 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Screen Graham 3
Great job by Graham(+1) to backtrack and tackle immediately on this.
M10 2 2 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Delay Ezeh 5
Director Jackass just loves lingering way too long on players and takes us to the play after the snap; impossible to tell what's going on. Ezeh(-1) does move unblocked to the hole at the LOS and miss a tackle.
M5 1 G Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run Counter Mouton 1
Mouton(+1) looks like he's going to get crushed by the pulling guard, but then Royster decides to cut up, allowing him to flow to the ball and tackle effectively.
M4 2 G Shotgun empty 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Out Graham Inc
Graham(+1) again pressures Clark but can't bring him down; Mouton(-1) got pulled way off the receiver unnecessarily, opening up a receiver in the endzone; Clark's being harried, though, and it's incomplete. (Pressure +1, cover -1.)
M4 3 G Shotgun empty 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Hitch Williams 4
Williams(-1) is in a short zone and way too far off the receiver. (Cover -1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-14, EOH. Someone kill the three man line. Just kill it.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O14 1 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Dive -- 4
Miss the start of this play for a VT-BC ad; this looks completely adequate all around with no standouts and no one doing anything particularly wrong.
O18 2 6 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run Draw -- 9
AAAAAAAAAARGH IT'S SECOND AND SIX AGAINST A RUNNING TEAM AND MICHIGAN HAS FIVE GUYS IN THE BOX. Michigan does that linebacker overload blitz they've been trying, where the two LBs attack the gap between the NT and a DE, and PSU runs a draw at it, creasing the stunting line and shooting into the secondary. Again, this is on Shafer, as the players had zero chance to stop this given the playcall.
O27 1 10 I-Form offset 3-3-5 Nickel Pass PA Dig Stewart 13
This is not a real I-form, they've got Williams as the nominal tailback with Royster offset in the backfield. Jamison(+0.5) contains this waggle rollout pretty well, but Clark throws some sort of jump pass to a wide open receiver beyond the sticks; Stewart tackles (cover -2). Ezeh(-1) dragged light years out of position by the play action fake.
O40 1 10 Single wing-ish? Base 4-3 Pass Throwaway Graham Inc
Graham(+1) is given one of those temporary blocks before the TE releases; he gets good pressure(+1) upfield, forcing Clark to toss the ball away in the general direction of covered wide receivers.
O40 2 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Iso Thompson 4
TE off the line is used as a lead blocker; Thompson meets him and I guess does all right, holding his ground. He was tardy reacting, though, so that ground is two yards downfield and in the mess there's four yards for Penn State.
O44 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run QB draw Ezeh 9
Oh, just shoot me now. Graham slants inside due to the playcall, removing himself from the play, as Michigan blitzes heavily to the backside of the play. The tackle peels off and pulls around, acting as a lead blocker; Ezeh(-1) fails to read this, getting too far inside and blocked by the tackle; Stewart actually beat a blocker and could have helped stop this short but there's too much space because of Ezeh.
M47 1 10 I-Form Base 4-3 Pass Flare Graham Inc
Graham(+0.5) shoots around the LT again, raking at Clark's hand and bumping him up into the pocket, where Mouton(+0.5) has come on a blitz and begins to sack Clark. Clark attempts to dump it off to Royster, but it's dropped; would have been a loss of two, anyway (Pressure +2).
M47 2 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen Mouton 11
Mouton(-1) is slow to react, then overruns the play, turning five yards into 11. (Cover -1) Taylor makes a punishing downfield tackle.
M36 1 10 Ace 4-wide Base 4-3 Pass Flare screen -- 8
Michigan actually has this dead to rights with Trent(-0.5) and Taylor(-0.5) reading the play; both of them overrun it, allowing Williams to duck inside. (Cover +1)
M28 2 2 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Dive Ezeh 4
Thompson actually does a good job of taking on the pulling guard; Ezeh(-1) runs up out of the play, gets engaged with a linebacker, and ends up ten yards downfield.
M24 1 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Fly Warren Inc
A bomb down the sideline that Warren(+0.5) is actually in pretty good coverage on; the throw is excellent. Butler makes a diving catch, but the ground knocks it loose. (Cover +1.)
M24 2 10 Ace 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Drag -- Inc
Ezeh in man-to-man with a dragging Derrick Williams... this is not a good idea. Michigan is blitzing and Mouton(+0.5) manages to harry Clark a little bit, I guess; the pass falls incomplete. (Pressure +0.5, Cover -1.)
M24 3 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Flag Graham Inc
Three man rush; this time Graham(+0.5) gets some small measure of pressure(+0.5), which I think causes Clark to toss the ball away. At least I think that's what he's doing, because his throw is five yards too high and to a covered(+1) receiver.
Drive Notes: Field Goal(42), 17-17, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
50 1 10 Ace Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Taylor 3
Taylor(+0.5) holds up pretty well against a double, and there's no crease up the middle. From there it's hard to tell what happens; Royster squeezes through the line for three yards when it looked like he would get stopped for zero.
M47 2 7 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Fade Warren 25
Mouton(+1) comes on a blitz and gets there, forcing a quick throw; Warren(-1) lined up in man near the LOS, gets to bump on the receiver and gives him far too much room to the sideline on this fade. (Cover -1.)
M22 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Counter Mouton 21
Time and again we see this happen where two players on the D attack the same gap. Here's it's Mouton(-1) shooting upfield, causing Royster to bounce it out; Graham(-1) has gotten pushed back to the LOS and lost contain. Royster bounces outside and has plenty of green grass; a late-filling Brown(-1) gets blocked by Clark, turning this into a major gain.
M1 1 G Goal line Goal line Run QB sneak -- 1
Eh.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 26-17, 3 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
M37 1 10 Ace twins Base 4-3 Run Counter Martin 14
Mouton(-1) and Ezeh(-1) sit back and accept blocks from linebackers; Martin(-1) failed to hold up to a double team and got creased, providing a cutback lane for Royster.
M23 1 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Johnson 3
Johnson(-1) gets scooped, sealed away from the frontside of the play and the second guy gets a block on Ezeh; Harrison(+1) comes up quickly and tackles after a small gain.
M20 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Run Zone read keeper -- 5
Again five guys in the box at the snap, with two of them blitzing up the middle; no linebackers. Ezeh attempts to scrape outside but the crappy angles Michigan players have because of the play call end up allowing one pulling tackle to block two guys and pancake Ezeh.
M15 3 2 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Dive Johnson 1
Johnson(+2) fights through a double team by himself, slices into the path of Green, and tackles him short o the sticks. Big play with no help.
Drive Notes: Field goal(33), 29-17, EO3Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
M19 1 10 Ace twins Base 4-3 Run Dive Johnson 3
Taylor(-0.5) blown back a bit by a double; Johnson(+1) fights through it and drives his guy back to the LOS, where Royster has to stall before cutting to one side of him. Ezeh cleans up after a couple yards.
M16 2 7 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass End-around pass Graham Inc
Graham(+1) gets upfield on this, forcing Williams back a few yards and probably making this inaccurate. Stewart(-1) has an interception in his hands and drops it.
M16 3 7 Ace 4-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Cross Harrison 15
Five rushers get nowhere near Clark (presure -2), giving this long drag time to develop. It's in front of Harrison(-1, cover -1), caught, and turned up for near touchdown yardage.
M1 1 G Goal line Goal line Run QB sneak Martin 0
Sneak fails; tough to tell who to credit but I think Martin(+1) got under Shipley and pushed him back.
M1 2 G Goal line Goal line Run QB sneak -- 1
Eh.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 36-17, 12 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards
O41 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Bubble screen -- Inc
For whatever reason, Clark decides not to throw this, then chucks it OOB.
O41 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 3-3-5 Nickel Pass Hitch Trent 11
Graham(+1) does manage to get pressure(+1) pretty quickly on this three man rush. No matter, though, as Butler is open(cover -2) between Trent(-0.5) and Mouton(-0.5)
M48 1 10 Ace twins Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Martin 6
It is really frustrating how poor the linebackers are at reading all these pulling guards. Here Ezeh(-0.5) runs himself upfield and gives the OG an angle to block him, which makes Mouton(+1) excellent job of standing up the OL pointless. Martin(-1) also sealed away too easily.
M42 2 4 Shotgun empty 3-3-5 Nickel Run QB draw -- 18
Michigan blitzes and gets out of position; Brown is filling decently here but Graham(-1) gets driven so far back on this that he allows Clark a lane outside, which he takes.
M24 1 10 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Delay Martin 4
Martin(-1) sealed away and eventually pancaked here; big gap. Ezeh(-0.5) fails to read the play and lets Shipley seal him away; Harrison(+0.5) fills near the LOS ably.
M20 2 6 I-Form Base 4-3 Run Sweep -- 0
Michigan brings up both safeties and has nine in the box on this one, and strings it out.
M20 3 6 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Out Warren 7
Warren(-1) is bailing out deep and this simple out at the sticks is wide open. (Cover -1)
M13 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Counter Mouton 3
Mouton(+0.5) attacks the pulling guard well, closing this hole down to very little; Taylor finishes after the Mouton-induced delay.
M10 2 7 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Run Off tackle Taylor 6
Taylor(-1) gets blown back, and does anyone really care at this point?
M4 3 1 Goal line Goal line Run Iso -- 0
Eh, whatever.
Drive Notes: Field goal(21), 39-17, 5 min 4th Q. End of charting.

What the hell?

I don't know, man. Yeah, Penn State's second half point explosion was heavily aided by Michigan screwups on special teams and offense, but it's not like this is an aberration. Illinois put up 45, after all, and did that by running it all over the place; in this game Royster averaged nearly ten yards a carry. Whatever hopes you have for this defense should now be dead.

Chart?

Sigh. Chart.

Before we get to it, a caveat: I didn't expect the numbers to be this ugly, and at this point in the season I may be excessively harsh due to general malaise and anger. By the last drive I was obviously not objective. But, yeah, they did put up 46 points and largely stopped themselves in the first half.

On with the show.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Jamison 0.5 - 0.5 Has a total of 0.5 points, positive or negative, over the past two games.
Johnson 3 1 2 One big third and short stop.
Taylor 1.5 2.5 -1 Disappeared.
Graham 9 4.5 4.5 Best player on defense without question.
Patterson - - -  
Banks - - -  
Van Bergen - - -  
Martin 1.5 4 -2.5 A lot of negatives late when he was in as a 4-3 DT; unsurprising he took a beating from Shipley & Co; he's just a freshman.
TOTAL 15.5 12 3.5 Basically Brandon Graham and disappointment.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ezeh 0.5 8 -7.5 Holy Christ.
Thompson 3 3 0 Forced a turnover.
Panter - - -  
Evans - - -  
Mouton 7 6 1 Still terrible in coverage; turning into a good blitzer.
TOTAL 10.5 17 -6.5  
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Trent - 1 -1 See "coverage".
Harrison 1.5 3 -1.5 One of the primary culprits on the long touchdown.
Warren 0.5 6 -5.5 More later.
Cissoko - - -  
Dutch - - -  
Stewart - 1 -1
Brown - 1 -1  
Williams 0.5 1 -0.5  
TOTAL 2 13 -11 Enormous disappointment.
Metrics
"Pressure" 9.5 6 3.5 Largely thanks to Graham and Mouton.
"Coverage" 5 19 -14 #$**#$$F*#$($.

Let me just tackle some of the guys you're probably going "urk" about:

Obi Ezeh. Hey, when you're the middle linebacker and the opponent rushes for 6.3 YPC you probably get a massive negative in UFR. I don't really blame him; if Michigan had recruited more than one high-profile linebacker since Crable and Burgess Ezeh would probably be waiting his chance on the bench.

Isn't it time to start getting Fitzgerald some time? A drive here and there; he's basically got to play next year.

Donovan Warren. I really, really hope he's had one of those injuries that's just not quite bad enough to knock you out of the game, and I hope he's had that most of the year. Because he hasn't made a single play, and a lot of Penn State's success was going right at him.

That coverage number. What can I say? Michigan let guys run all over the field. When they were in zone, Penn State found holes. When they were in man, Penn State ran drags.

It appears your goodwill towards the coaching staff is beginning to ebb.

Defensively, yes. I'm willing to put the crappy linebacker corps on Carr's extremely poor recruiting at the position, but the secondary has been a disaster zone with a bunch of highly-rated recruits. While the offense has tried a bunch of different things in an attempt to escape the basement, the defense has rolled out a 4-3 all year unless they're going to the 3-3-5. Said 3-3-5 has not been effective at rushing the passer and has been a complete disaster against the run, but it got rolled out on third and one last week and second and six this week, with predictable results.

I just don't get it, man. You cannot put five guys in the box on a potential running down, especially when two of them are defensive ends, two of them poor linebackers, and the other a freshman NT. And yet.

Fire somebody?

No. There's an obvious deficiency in talent on the D and whenever you switch regimes you can expect some issues. Any discussion about booting guys is Auburn-level premature.

But, yeah, my confidence level in Shafer is dipping.

Heroes?

Brandon Graham was consistently good, and Mouton's developing into a pretty decent player.

Goats?

Ezeh pulled that big negative for a reason, and pick someone in the secondary. Also, Shafer's inexplicable deployment of that 3-3-5 on Penn State's final drive of the half greatly aided that game-turning touchdown.

What does it mean for the future?

Well… I think we're going to be okay against Michigan State. Brian Hoyer is really bad and a little dinged up and their offense is a lot like Wisconsin's, against whom Michigan actually did pretty well. This is a game in which the DL will be very relevant. We'll have problems and give up points; I'm not expecting State to go nuts or anything.

As for the future: any team that can take the DL out of the game is going to put up a lot of points if they're any good. Purdue probably isn't; Northwestern and Minnesota might be, and who knows about Ohio State?

  • 11 comments

Picture Pages: Reach For The Stars

By Brian — October 23rd, 2008 at 12:31 PM — 18 comments
Filed under:
  • david molk
  • penn state
  • picture pages
  • qb sweep
  • stephen threet

On Saturday, Michigan faced third and three and, for probably the first time in 20 or so years, called a designed quarterback run. Here it is:

draw-1

Okay, empty backfield and wide splits on the defensive line. Seems like a pretty good setup, but there is one issue: this play is designed to go between the DT to the right of your screen and the DE to the same side. Without a lead blocker one of those linebackers will nail the slow-ish Threet before the marker.

To allay this, Michigan is going to try a reach block by Molk on the DT, which will allow Moosman to head downfield on the linebacker.

What's a reach block? Uh… well…

Using the left guard again, to “reach” would be to get around the defensive tackle, and use his right shoulder to pin him to the inside, so that a ball carrier can go around you to the left. Again, it is about getting the face mask in “front” or beyond the defender to get the shoulder pad in position. Seriously, line up with a friend sometime and try to reach block to your outside, you will appreciate linemen athleticism much more.

The idea is to get Molk around the defensive tackle so he can seal him, creasing the two defenders, as Moosman heads downfield to take out a linebacker. If this sounds hard, it is. I lost this in the ether, but at one point during my research for Hail To The Victors 2007 I came across one coach's description of a bunch of different blocks, ordered by difficulty. "Reach block by the center" was #1.

Real UFR diehards may remember a common bitch from the last couple years that usually went something like "Kraus attempts to block a DT lined up playside of him, but he shoots into the backfield/flows down the line to tackle/eats a baby." These were all attempted reach blocks gone bad.

(A "scoop" block, as I understand it, is basically an assisted reach block. Moosman banged the DT back and helped Molk get over, that would be a scoop.)

And all this stuff is supposed to be hard when the DT is lined up to your outside shoulder. Here the DT is lined up slightly outside of the guard(!). How is this going to work?

The snap:

dive-1.5

You can see the line shifting to the left here, and you can see that the DT is now between the two OL. The wide splits were a pass rush gambit—tougher to block outside that way—and the first step of the DT is upfield, not down the line.

dive-1.6

Molk makes contact and he's in decent position here given the relative momentum here, but he's still got to get his helmet across the player, then anchor as well as he can to preserve the crease between the two OL. Chris Spielman, by the way, is currently doodling on the DE, who is still in pass rush mode.

draw-2

Molk is now full of win, playside of a guy who lined up a yard outside of him at the snap. Moosman is in great position to block the MLB, but doesn't have to because he's getting cut to the ground. Minor is about to block the safety-type object.

draw-3

Woop! Open spaces, first and goal, and a one-yard Minor touchdown follow.

Object lessons. I picked this play out of all the various things for a variety of reasons. To wit:

I think Molk might be pretty good once he is enormous-er. I brought this up earlier in the year, but Molk was a fringe top-100 guy who was the only real OL recruit brought in after the shift to zone blocking. He got dinged later in the year for being small, but in a system like this where he's reach-blocking all day his agility is an asset. Time and again against Penn State he successful executed these blocks, springing people into the secondary. Against Notre Dame he did the same thing.

The issues are obvious, though: too many missed blocks, and too many blocks where he's just not strong enough to deal with his man. But he's a redshirt freshman; strength should come.

(This is the long way of saying I think GS was unduly harsh on Molk this week in the Run Chart; he should get more credit for these reach blocks.)

You can only make a reach block if the defense lets you. I'm not a coach or an expert or anything but over the last three years I've watched a ton of stretch plays and have come to the conclusion that if the DL steps the right way and you have been tasked with a reach block, you lose.

And the thing is, either way can be the right way. Last year Penn State's Ollie Ogbu had three TFLs and a half-dozen more plays he forced into unblocked defenders because he was shooting behind the attempted reach block. Penn State slanted their DL all day, and if they got a zone left they strung it out and if they got a zone right they came under it and did even more damage.

Diversity. The reason Michigan's run game was so successful against Penn State was because of its diversity. For much of the first half, Michigan had Penn State defenders expecting stretch and getting something else.

The results are, for the first time, encouraging. The rushing game against Penn State this year and last, sacks excised:

Year Carries Yards Avg. Opp Rush D
2008 43 219 5.1 22nd
2007 54 172 3.2 7th

Some of that improvement is the decline in Penn State's defense, but raise your hand if you think the Penn State defense declined more than the Michigan offense.

Right, no takers.

How? Well, I found a three-play sequence on Michigan's first touchdown drive interesting. Michigan had been moving the ball and found itself in fourth and one. Penn State slanted into the backfield and should have had Minor(+2!) dead; Minor squirmed out and got the first. On the next two plays, Penn State went back to the slant—back to the successful gameplan from a year ago—and got cut for a total of 14 yards and a first down because Michigan ran the same play you see above and that backside veer play. Michigan had Penn State guessing in a way that Carr never did, IMO, and that's a large reason why WVU's ground game was near the national  best in YPC.

Of course, all that died in the second half, but there's only so much diversity Michigan has at this point. If they had a reliable passing game (read: Threet with elbows) or a better offensive line or some rocket quarterback they'd be able to punish Penn State's adjustments to their run game; as it was they just ran out of things to do.

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