...says Denzel Valentine of Big Ten Tourney favorite MSU, which is 5-7 in its last 12 games. Cumong, man.
Hopefully this goes better than The Horror.
Re: sopcast. Sorry, guys. I could not find one already listed. Maybe someone in the comments can help.
I will be attending the game, then crashing in Chicago for the night, so content this weekend is unlikely.
Run Offense vs. Northwestern
This should be a replay of the first three games, not the ten-yarders interspersed with lost yardage that Penn State was. Northwestern is currently a respectable 55th in rushing defense but has played Northeastern, Nevada, and Duke to go along with Ohio State. Chris Wells went for 100 yards on just twelve carries before getting sent to the bench with Ohio State up like 400 points, leaving disappointing Maurice Wells -- Ohio State should not recruit running backs named "Maurice" -- and Antonio Henton to flail into the line and bring down OSU's average. Though Penn State had a lot of success at shooting into the backfield, that requires a lot of huge agile guys. Northwestern does not have these guys.
One potential downer: Tim MacAvoy, the third string right guard, will start this game.
Key Matchup: Mike Massey versus whoever. Block someone, kid!
Pass Offense vs. Penn State
Mallett or Henne? It probably won't matter as Michigan hands off time and again, but whoever it is is likely to have major opportunities to pad some stats. Consider the following QB lines:
- 11 of 14 for 179 yards and 4 TDs.
- 19 of 23 for 246 yards and 3 TDs.
- 22-36 for 337 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception.
Now consider one of these quarterbacks (the second) plays for Duke and... like... wow. The Wildcat secondary is playing Oregon every week, and now they're down starting safety Branden Smith. Northwestern is 114th in pass efficiency defense. It could get ugly if Michigan chooses to balance their offense.
They won't, of course. Throwing on first down will happen a quarter to a third of the time, Mallett will be kept away from sharp objects, and Michigan will be content to have its quarterback finish with 20 attempts.
Key Matchup: Mike Debord versus spectacle.
Run Defense vs. Northwestern
The absence of Hart-like mighty mite Tyrell Sutton helps assuage fears that Northwestern's run-based spread option will slice and dice Michigan's defense in a fashion reminiscent of The Horror. Sutton's replacments are not even close to the little adorable bastard's level of play. The results have been good (204 yards on 26 carries versus Nevada), bad (3.8 YPC for Brandon Roberson, Sutton's replacement, against Duke(!)), and ugly (61 yards on 33 rushes versus Ohio State). I think we can safely say Michigan's run defense is not Ohio State caliber, but... uh... probably better than Duke. If they aren't, it's time to sound the alarm and dive, dive, dive, because it would mean Michigan is truly irredeemable against the zone read with Purdue and Illinois fast approaching.
Key Matchup: CGraham and Thompson against whatever the hell they were doing in the first couple games.
Pass Defense vs. Northwestern
After what was probably the worst performance by a secondary in Michigan history, the defense bounced back with strong efforts against Jimmah Clausen and Anthony Morelli. Caveat emptor, though, given the lack of talent and intelligence evident in both. (Many will blame Clausen's performance on a leaky Irish OL and while said OL is not particularly good, many of Michigan's sacks were solidly on Clausen's inability to find anyone to throw to at all.) CJ Bacher does not come with guru-approved talent but I kind of like the kid. However, statistics do not. In the past two weeks he's thrown four interceptions and no touchdowns, though he did rack up a lot of yards versus Duke.
Meanwhile, a lot of Nittany Lion receivers found themselves open last week to no avail, and Michigan is still starting two questionable veterans and a true freshman at corner. This will not be a slam-dunk shutout. Northwestern's game is all short stuff that relies on receivers picking up yards after the catch, which should help neutralize a pass rush that has been fierce against charitable lines the past couple weeks. And our corners, well... dodgy tackling, IMO. Northwestern probably lacks the ability to execute consistently enough to shred Michigan, but a dominant performance is not coming.
Key Matchup: Cornerbacks and tackling. Trent has been good so far this year. Warren has not; Brandon Harrison has a history of taking poor angles and allowing YAC. Northwestern lives and dies on YAC... this is kind of bad matchup.
Northwestern has a decent punter, a kickoff return touchdown, a decent kicker but hasn't shown that their special teams units can be a real asset. Meanwhile, Zoltan Mesko spent the week booming 36-yard fair catch specials that prevented Derrick Williams from getting even one return and dropping balls inside the five that should have been downed. He's been outstanding. Michigan's return units have been mediocre and the kicker missed a 29-yard field goal, though.
Key Matchup: Eh... this does not seem to be a point of major concern this game.
Sorry, but I love the punching cat thing to death.
- AAAAARGH SPREAD OPTION GASH
- For some reason we can't run the ball.
- See "AAAAARGH SPREAD OPTION GASH".
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Clever zone left stuff goes for 8 a pop.
- BGraham continues his ascension.
- Henne starts.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 out of 10. (Baseline 5; -1 for You Lost To Duke, +1 for Uh, We Lost To Appalachian State, -1 for Then You Let OSU Put Up A 50-Spot, +1 for Uh.... Right, Oregon, -1 for Technically A Road Game But Dollars To Donuts Michigan Fans Outnumber Wildcat Fans, -1 for Stewart Mandel is Your Fault and God Will Punish You).
Desperate need to win level: 6 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for Oh God, The Dashed Hopes, +1 for Mike Hart, Man, Mike Hart, -1 for But Then We're Seriously Going Outside The Program, +1 for Wide Open Big Ten Means Potential Rose Bowl, -1 for ...Where We Might Well Play Oregon.)
Loss will cause me to... drive into Lake Michigan.
Win will cause me to... concoct crazy justifications as to why this means we can totally stop Purdue's offense.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Northwestern appears to be really, really bad this year, but I still believe the Michigan defense is vulnerable to all sorts of things like non-inept quarterbacks. Bacher may or may not be one of these, but he'd be hard-pressed to play as crappily as either of our foes the last two weeks. Northwestern will move the ball some. Their defense will get knocked over by a feather, but Michigan's reliance on pounding the ball time and again will put them in constant third down situations, many of which they will convert but many of which they will not. Think of it as Penn State light: many drives that pick up a chunk of yards but end somewhere short of the endzone. The end result should be a comfortable but disappointingly close win; if ill fortune intervenes this could be close well into the second half.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Manningham finally catches a deep ball.
- Our defense gives everyone the heebie-jeebies.
- 27-17, Michigan.
I was just wondering if you could shed some light on something for me: it seems pretty clear (at least from the remarks of most SEC bloggers) that Les Miles is regarded as a less than stellar coaching prospect. Aside from the obvious lack of restraint in press conferences (and running his mouth in general), what exactly is it that makes people think that he is a lackluster coach? His teams perform well in a brutal conference, he is working (somewhat) with his own recruits, and his playcalling seems inventive enough, what am I missing?
I think it's the perception that LSU is an unstoppable juggernaut that can only be held back by its coach. It is the proverbial gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis and any loss cannot be the work of anything but gross incompetence on the part of its coaching staff. When LSU has gacked up games it has been in remarkably undisciplined fashion. Last year's Florida loss, which featured six turnovers, is the grand bull-moose in this category, and it was a doozy. There was also that instance in which Les Miles took a timeout late in a game after LSU was the beneficiary of a turnover. Which, uh... you don't have to do. (This was not in 2006, the year of stupid clock rules.)
And then there is the other bit. This whole Les Miles-"Loose Morals" thing has been a fascinating exercise in the propagation of information in the Internet age. So a few months ago I put up a post titled "Les Miles Isn't A Candidate For Anything" in response to a Jim Carty blog post naming him the frontrunner. A large part of my thinking was based on the rumblings of certain insiders on the premium message boards of Rivals and Scout. But... uh... perhaps these are not the least biased individuals in the world when it comes to potential new coaches at Michigan? Insiders are insiders because they have contacts on the current staff. These are friends of people who have had their jobs come under threat by the prospect of change, and they're terrified of Miles coming in and cleaning house. The idea of Cam Cameron (before he was named the Dolphins' head coach) or Mike Trgovic coming in was similarly panned.
Miles got it harder than most. Why? Well, this fits neatly within the realm of unsubstantiated internet rumor (appropriate since the allegations against him are mostly in that realm as well), but said rumor goes that Miles started sniffing around the job a few years ago and this was met with extreme displeasure. Thus the rip jobs. Do they have some truth to them? Perhaps, but Miles hasn't exactly been dogged by NCAA investigators. I think I may have taken the bait earlier; now I am skeptical.
I have warmed to Miles recently because the accusations of coaching impropriety only go so far when you 1) hire Bo Pelini as your defensive coordinator 2) hire Jimbo Fisher as your offensive coordinator, and 3) replace the departed Fisher with Gary Crowton. Miles seems content to hire highly respected coordinators and act as a Mark Richt-like CEO. Whatever flaws he has are mitigated by his willingness to hire the best people available as assistants. This is slightly different than Michigan's current strategy.
There are still concerns: the loony bin he left at Okie State, "we have a new rival in fucking Alabama," and the apparent bad blood between Miles and the existing staff. All these things will be hurdles, and if Carr leads Michigan to a win against OSU and a bowl victory he'll have pull no one thought possible two weeks ago when 7-5 looked like a unicorn dream. But I think that's something that might pull Michigan towards other candiates and not an automatic DQ any more. Given the widely-held opinion that Miles is Michigan's for the asking, any clearly less attractive candidates will be hard to consider seriously.
Speaking of Cam...
Is it crazy to suggest that Cam Cameron could be an option? The Dolphins now appear to be a college powerhouse feeder and he has obvious ties to Michigan. I would say it's a long shot, but don't you think we'll at least make a run at him? He's the antithesis of Carr in terms of play calling.
Highly unlikely, IMO. Part of the reason Saban left is that he was under a lot of pressure at Miami for not being good and was likely on his way out in a season or two anyway. Cameron is in his first year as an NFL head coach. If Michigan was really going to shell out enough to pry him away from that, they should be making a serious run at guys like Tedford. This is also the big strike against Ferentz: for the money it would take to get him, Michigan could make a run at virtually anyone in the country.
I have a question about the future of Coach Carr. I'm reading all over the place that our recruits, Boubacar Cissoko, Brandon Smith, Christian Wilson etc. have been assured by the coaching staff 100% that Lloyd Carr will be coaching next year. However it seems to be a universal feeling everywhere else that this is definitely his last year, even if he wins out. My question is what gives?
I mean I know you can't announce that this is the last year because it will be a distraction all season.....but assuring these kids that you will be there, and then leaving, can make for a ugly situation come February 6th (or whenever signing day is) Thoughts?
I've read stuff like this, too, and also read things that make it sound like Carr's retirement is a slam-dunk A-1 #1 done deal. So, I don't know. The things being said to the recruits probably focus on the assistant's contracts, which are apparently all guaranteed for another year, and that Carr will have a role in the athletic department after he steps down. He will still be around. This might seem something less than convincing, and for some it is: Boubacar Cissoko is visiting Illinois this weekend.
But this happens to every school that goes through a coaching transition. Michigan will probably lose a couple recruits when/if Carr announces he's stepping down. As long as that happens significantly before Signing Day and Michigan has a coach in place shortly, things should be okay. Not great; okay.
Update: commenters report that the Cissoko visit is off, so that's good. But there have been quotes to the effect that if Carr and/or English leaves he's no longer a commit. The general point stands.
At various points during the Oregon game, I was shocked by the booing; but then I was humbled. I hadn't stopped to consider how many Michigan fans are living their lives undefeated. I've never booed our team, but that's probably because I screw up one thing or another on a pretty regular basis, and it doesn't seem fair to pretend that I don't. But there I was in Section 4 last week surrounded by people who apparently aren't much like me. Imagine having gotten all A's, being Valedictorian, playing only on undefeated teams, never making a throwing error, never tripping, never clanking a lay up, blocking all the shots, always being in the fairway, interviewing for the only job you want and getting it, getting every promotion, always receiving the largest pay increases, marrying the prettiest girl in town (who loves you dearly), having perfect kids, never getting a traffic ticket.......the mind soars.
I hadn't thought I was sitting among so many people who live in an
other dimension. Who knew? I'm not going to get mad at people who boo the Wolverines any more, now that I've figured them out. We can only hope that Coach Carr and the players think this through as well. As hard as the team works every week to prepare to play â€“ to do their jobs â€“ in front of 110,000 live witnesses plus millions more who can examine every faux pas on slow motion instant replay, they have to accept the fact that they are doing all of this for the entertainment of at least some people who believe they are working even harder and doing what they do perfectly.
Maybe at the Notre Dame game, if it's going badly, I'll sit in my seat backward â€“ not because I'm turning away from the team but because there may still be an opportunity in the stadium to observe perfection.
Hurray for stuff getting lost in my inbox. Anyway, this missive on the Oregon booing was apropos at the time. Personally, I prefer a stony silence. Booing is so gauche.
A response to the Victors query:
In response to the question about other versions of the Victors, here's what I can tell you:
- Hoover Street Rag â€“ This is a 'rag time' version of the Victors that gets played periodically in the stands and in concerts
- Calyptors â€“ This is an old take on the song with a calypso theme to it. They don't play it often, though it is a fun and complex arrangement.
- Victors Waltz â€“ At the conclusion of a Michigan victory you'll notice the band swaying back and forth as they play a slow version of the Victors. They then break into the regular song. This version originated in the late 1990's.
I think there might be another version or two from eons ago if you dig around on some of the old tapes or CDs that you can pick up at M-Den or other stores.
There was also, uh... this:
File under obscure requests:
Today's wacky Mail Bag (9/25/07) made me decide to send an email.
My question: I would love to change to look of my motorcycle helmet(s) so that they resemble the Michigan football helmet. Are those stickers available to the public? Would you happen to know where to source them? Even some very close pictures of an actual UM helmet would help.
Any help out there?
|O42||1||10||I-Form 3-wide||Run||1||Hart||Zone left|
|Penn State in their base set here and in man cover one. Corners are playing soft... this is an opportunity for an easy slant or something. Instead, run it into a stacked front. We shuffle the fullback; Dan Connor immediately steps over and starts towards the LOS even before the ball is snapped. Boren(-1) is the main problem here, getting blown back by the DT over him. With a guy in the backfield and linebackers all over the second level there's nowhere to go.|
|O41||2||9||Ace Twins||Run||4||Hart||Zone left|
|Penn State showing a two-deep zone with soft coverage. Mike Massey(-1) is shoved two yards backwards by one of PSU's undersized DEs, forcing Hart to cut up behind him. The rest of the blocking is actually pretty good; I think Hart screws up his cut here. If he wanted to dart outside he could have probably outrun a defensive tackle and maybe picked up a nice gain. As it is he burrows for four behind his linemen.|
|Embarrassing whiff on a blitz pickup by Massey(-2) leaves Hart attempting to block two guys. This does not work. Mallett's real short read, Matthews, has run himself into coverage and there's nowhere to go; sack. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Massey.)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 10 min 1st Q. Mesko drops this inside the ten; Stevie Brown misjudges it badly. Oh... and can we make Carson Butler the starting tight end, please? What is it with Lloyd and guys named Massey?|
|O10||1||G||I-Form Twins||Pass||0||Manningham||Slip screen|
|Mallett throws this behind Manningham slightly, forcing him to delay and robbing this play of the timing it needs to succeed. (IN, 3, protection N/A).|
|Well, it's a touchdown. Mallett said he should have thrown this in the postgame, so... (BR, 0, protection 2/2). I am so mean. Should be noted that Massey(+1) gets a key block here.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 9 min 1st Q.|
|Boren and Mitchell cannot move the DT â€“ think it's Ogbu â€“ and there is no second-level block. Hart cuts behind here and up unto a couple of unblocked linebackers. Excellent job by Mitchell(+1) to seal the other DT, giving Hart enough of a crease to pick up a few.|
|M6||2||7||Ace Twins||Run||11||Minor||Zone left|
|Excellent job by Butler to turn the DE out â€“ PSU is undershifted here for more of a 5-2 look. Kraus does a great job on the DT, getting a little help from Boren late, and Long is free to go out and engulf Lee. Minor darts through an open left side.|
|Motion into a twins look. Butler is wide open off the waggle action, catches it a few yards downfield, and turns it up, making a tackler miss in the process. (CA, 3, protection N/A)|
|Neither Boren(-1) nor Schilling(-1) can get his guy blocked here; they meet Hart in the backfield and snow him under in tandem. Massey's block is also pretty crappy.|
|Thrown well behind Manningham, so much so that it actually hits King in the chest. Was there if accurate. (IN, 0, protection 2/2). This route had all of two guys in it, BTW.|
|Excellent blitz pickup from Hart. Mallet has plenty of time, can't find anyone, and scrambles out of the pocket. (TA, 0, protection 3/3)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 2 min 1st Q. An important couple of first downs on this drive, one of them on a wide open first down pass that we don't even bother trying again all day. But Mallett is pretty shaky so far. I think I am reconsidering my playcalling complaints.|
|We start with Arrington in the backfield; he motions out. I wonder what the point of this is? Mallett throws a slant; King interferes. (CA, 0, protection 1/1) Toney Clemons(-1) lines up on the line, making Massey an ineligible receiver. Also he is wide, wide open on a simple stop route.|
|M31||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||13||Hart||Zone left|
|Overshift from Penn State has an extra linebacker to the playside, but for some reason he darts inside the defensive end, allowiing Butler to ignore him and block Lee; the outside is wide open. Nice downfield block from Arrington. Long(+1) seals with authority.|
|M44||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||0||Hart||Zone right|
|Ogbu, slanting hard, splits Mitchell(-1) and Boren(-1). He ends up falling all over himself but Hart runs right into him and goes down. Play is otherwise well blocked and would have been a good gain.|
|Again with the Arrington motioning out of the backfield. The pass is batted down by a blitzer; it wasn't going for anything anyway as Mallett stared the route down. Three or four even if completed. (BA, 0, protection 0/1). Manningham open on a slant on the other side of the field.|
|A badass throw on a rope between two guys that Brett Favre would be pleased with. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)|
|Buried in the backfield as seemingly no one gets a block. Boren and Mitchell most prominently, Butler as well. I have always hated this playcall, even when it works.|
atted away; dangerously close to a pick. Mallett starts off by looking at Manningham but I get the feeling this is a decoy and not a real read for him. He comes off to Butler, who ran down the sideline for seven or so yards, then cut into zone coverage. The trick: Arrington ran right into the DB, kinda-sorta-blocking him momentarily, then released. Mallett was probably late with this ball. (BR, 1, protection 2/2)
|O42||3||14||Ace 3-wide||Pass||Inc||Hart||Insane flip thing|
|Blitz is momentarily picked up very well until Kraus(-1) lets Connor spin free and nearly sack Mallett. The only thing preventing said sack: Mallett sort of insanely flipping the ball towards Hart to avoid the sack. (TA, 0, protection 2/3, Kraus -1)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 14 min 2nd Q. Maguire says he'd be shocked if there weren't twice as many passes in this game as there are runs, which is insane if you consider who the coaches are.|
|Mallett has his pick of open tight ends and goes for the deeper one. This one is to Tacopants, who just caught a fairy touchdown for Penn State. Busy guy. (IN, 0, protection N/A)|
|Kraus flattens his guy and Boren stands up Connor; Hart splits the two linebackers and plows through for a nice gain.|
|M26||3||2||I-Form Big||Run||6||Hart||The Impossible|
|FB shuffle... we run away from it! Connor's so shocked that he falls down on the ground. Massey and Kraus seal a bunch of guys slanting the other way and Hart picks up a first down easily. Now debate amongst yourselves whether this play is worth tipping 20 others.|
|Pump fakes, then fires it in to Manningham past the sticks. (CA, 2, protection 2/2).|
|M44||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||4||Hart||Zone left|
|No creases but excellent push from Kraus and Long turns this into a standard wad play for a few. Didn't see the start because of poor production.|
|Penn State slants opposide the direction of this play, shooting a defensive end past Schilling(-1) and screwing up the blocking such that Hart has to deal with the DE and an unblocked Connor two yadrs in the backfield. He manages to make this a positive two instead of a negative two.|
|Bump and run for the other two corners; Arringtons guy much softer. He just runs a little in route after Butler drives off the coverage. No reason for PSU to be playing this soft on third and short-ish, IMO. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)|
|O43||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||10||Hart||Zone left|
|Kraus(+1) in a tough position here, asked to block a DT lined up slightly playside of him. He's driven back a yard or two but manages to get his helmet across him and seal him before Hart gets to him. Butler kicks out the DE. Boren and Long are on the second level shoving linebackers back.|
|Mitchell(+1) impedes the backside DT, opening up a hole up the gut that could be a nice gainer except that Long's(-1) second level block is tetchy, defeated by Lee, and Hart ends up submarined after a few.|
|O30||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||-1||Minor||Zone right|
|Again PSU slants against the playside. This completely screws up any chance we have of getting a second level block; Connor fills unmolested. Mitchell is hurt on this play. Cuilla comes in.|
|Same playcall from PSU with DL slanting hard to one side as Connor comes around the backside on a blitz. This time they're caught out, though, as the draw allows the DL to run themselves out of the play and Connor gets picked out by Moudros. Result is gaping hole for Hart. (This is how hard PSU slanted: Jake Long ends up blocking the PSU DE where Boren started the play.)|
|Overshift to the pay side and PSU defends this more conventionally. Boren seals his guy to the inside but lets him slip past; he takes a dive at Hart's legs and nearly takes them out. But he doesn't and there's a hole. Zone block from Long and Kraus blows out the other DT; Butler(-1) completely whiffs his cut against the DE, who tracks Hart through the hole and brings him down from behind.|
|Minor heads right up the middle into an unblocked Connor. I have a major problem with this playcall. It's second and a yard and you're on the 11; this is a down on which you can take a shot at the endzone on a really safe route like a fade or try to pick up five or six so your first and goal is from the five and you can plausibly batter your way in.|
|O10||1||G||Ace Twins||Run||-2||Hart||Zone left|
|Arrington brought in motion to be an extra blocker; all he does is bring another defender, who he whiffs on, basically, as Ogbu gets serious penetration from behind and Hart is snowed under. Cuilla goes down; Mitchell comes back in.|
|Penn State is all over this one; Mallett just gets rid of it. (TA, 0)|
|Overthrown, possibly intentionally because Mathews had guys all around him. Could file his as BR, IN, or TA... uh. I'm sure the message was don't turn it over. A generous TA. (O, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Missed FG(29), 7-3, 2 min 2nd Q. Ugh.|
|M27||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||-1||Hart||Zone right|
|Just before the snap PSU rushes a linebacker to the line outside of the tackle on the the playside; he's totally unblocked and in the backfield already. Meanwhile, the heavy slanting has gotten more PSU guys in the backfield; Hart has no chance.|
|Yeah... it's kind of sad that it's second and eleven with two minutes left in the first half and 1) Penn State still has seven guys in the box against this spread formation, 2) we still run against it, an
d 3) we run a freakin' draw when they're obviously expecting run. Connor is unblocked and ends the play near the LOS.
|Mallett rolls out past a crashing PSU DE, then finds Manningham wide open between levels in a zone. Excellent poise. (DO... for the scramble and playmaking, 3, protection 1/2, Schilling)|
|Batted at the line. (BA, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Arrington comes underneath zone coverage driven off by a deeper route, then fights for the first down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)|
|This is a much better place to run the draw. Six guys in the box, linebackers preparing zone drops and soft coverage behind it. Hart doesn't meet opposition until he's four yards downfield. Boren(+1) with an excellent block in the center of things.|
|Missed blitz pickup leads to a throw into the stands. (PR, 0, protection 1/3)|
|Hart stones Connor on a blitz; Mallett waits for Arrington to clear the DB in zone and rifles it in a small window. A little behind but catchable. (CA+, 2, protection 2/2)|
|Excellent blitz pickup; Mallett finds an open Arrington... and misses him by a million yards. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)|
|Undercut by Seargeant; very nice play from him. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Interception, 7-3, EOH.|
|M33||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||9||Hart||Zone left|
|You can just see this is going to work on the snap. Penn State is in a base 4-3 that's actually shifted to the side away from the WRs; Michigan motions Butler over to them, balancing the TEs, and there's precious little adjustment from Penn State. Boren gets his head across the DT, allowing Kraus to get out to the second level immediately; Hart has a crease and space and a nice gain.|
|PSU more aggressive this time; Michigan can't seal the DT like on the last play. Hart cuts back behind the mess of the Boren/Mitchell double and a cut backside DE for three and the first down.|
|M46||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||-3||Hart||Zone right|
|Ogbu shoots into the backfield past Boren(-1), and behind him. He should stop to wall him off but he's still doing that "I'm going to run next to you" block as Ogbu gets into the backfield for a TFL. Rest of the frontside was blocked very well.|
|M43||2||13||Ace Empty||Pass||Inc||Manningham||WR screen|
|Michigan does its usual thing where it motions a TE out to a pair of receivers on one side with an empty backfield; this is pretty much always a screen. Mallett short-hops it. (IN, 0) Butler(-1) was moving forward at the snap; declined.|
|PSU blitzes; Hart stones Connor again, but Schilling(-1) whiffs on his guy; Mallett scrambles out of big trouble and dumps it off to Massey. About as well as he could have done given the situation. (CA, 3, protection 1/3, Schilling -2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-3, 13 min 3rd Q.|
|Near identical setup to the first, successful run on the previous series, but #91 for PSU dominates his Boren-Kraus double team(-1 each) and blows this play up before it can even get started. I checked: this is Jared Odrick. (NOT Dan Connor, TV persons.)|
|M35||2||12||Ace Twins||Run||-1||Hart||Zone right|
|Schilling(-2) gets beaten badly, badly by the defensive end.|
|Mallett right on the money a yard or two short of the sticks. Arrington hesitates and cannot stretch for the first down; punty time. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-3, 10 min 3rd Q.|
|So, this is one of the playcalls that really bothers me. Penn State has a true, no BS eight in the box with one deep safety and the corners playing eight yards off the LOS. A quick hitch or an out to Arrington or even a long handoff is open here, simple throws against this sort of stuff. We go with the day's first zone counter play, but there's no fricking way Hart can get to the backside because Ogbu has blown past MacAvoy(-1) and well into the backfield. So he goes up the frontside, where somewhat miraculously there's a tiny wedge he can fit through for like three yards.|
|Linebacker runs up into the hole between Long and Kraus, but this is going outside, so he's just run himself into a really easy block for butler. Long(+1) seals his guy and there's no one to the outside. Hart powers through Scirrotto impressively to finish.|
|Frontside all jammed up. As Hart cuts back Schilling(-1) loses his block and his guy sticks Hart for a small gain.|
|Kraus(-2) humiliatingly discarded by Chris Baker and attacked in the backfield. Baker can't tackle but the play's screwed up, as you might imagine. He turns it into two.|
|Wide open; Mallett's throw is a little high and hard but catchable. A
rrington brings it in. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
|Aw, come on, Ryan. This is the fifth one in two and a half games.|
|Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-3, 4 min 3rd Q.|
|Arrington motions across the formation into a twins look; Mallett fakes the zone but Maybin is out on him quickly. Butler is covered short, and there doesn't appear to be anyone open. Mallett sort of runs up into Butler; two guys converge to sack. Should have thrown this away. (TA, 0.)|
|A dead simple stop route that Manningham catches three yards downfield without a guy between him and the first down marker. This stuff was open all day, as PSU tipped three-deep coverage more often than not. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) Manningham gets some nice YAC.|
|Exact same play to the opposite side of the field, as Penn State tips three-deep again with a corner ten yards off the LOS. (CA, 3 protection 1/1)|
|O48||1||10||Ace 3-wide||Run||7||Hart||Zone left|
|Penn State again gets superior penetration on the frontside, causing Hart to cut back. Since we're in a balanced formation we have a TE to block the backside LB â€“ PSU in a 5-2 look â€“ and Schilling(+1) walls off his DE. Hart cuts behind the penetrating DT and goes outside of Schilling's block; Connor is caught up in the mess. Something similar happened on a previous drive but Schilling lost his guy. Hart stiffarms his way for a nice gain.|
|PSU's LB blitzes on the backside right into this. To his credit, he reads it well, but Manningham manages to get around him and turn this into a small gain.|
|Mathews open on the out; Mallett throws it to Tacopants. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)|
|Penn State's DL slants into some trouble here. Massey is lined up well off the LOS over Long and pulls around to act as a fullback. To his credit, he really thumps Connor and makes a crease between him and a double on a DT from two OL. (+1 Massey)|
|O28||3||In||Ace Twins||Run||8||Hart||Zone left|
|Odrick again gets penetration past Kraus(-1) â€“ we are having major problems with PSU DL swimming past our OL â€“ but can't grab Hart's legs. There's a hole created by the DL's penetration. Hart moves up into it, smartly cutting behind a linebacker getting shoved downfield by Moundros; Connor also caught up in the wash.|
|O20||1||10||Ace Twins||Run||8||Hart||Zone left|
|We set up with both TEs to the wide side of the field, bringing Butler in motion short. They remain shifted to the wide side of the field. This time Boren(+1) manages to get Odrick under control; Long kicks out the DE as Butler and Kraus head to the second level. Kraus gets a decent block on Lee; Arrington's guy disconnects downfield to tackle.|
|O12||2||2||Ace Twins||Run||-3||Hart||Zone left|
|Exact same formation, motion, and play, except this time PSU is loaded up to stop it with an eighth guy in the box and shifted towards the playside. They slant hard; Baker beats Boren and with the frontside jammed up Hart's delay means a TFL. Virtually no one got blocked on this play.|
|Arrington looked criminally open from my seats, but maybe he wasn't. Mallett stands in, waiting for Mathews to come underneath the zone; he does. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)|
|O6||1||10||Ace||Run||1||Hart||Outside zone left|
|This is pretty awful from Kraus. He gets blown back yards into the backfield, disrupting this play's timing. I think this was designed to go outside, but we'll never know. Hart manages to get a yard.|
|Penn State's in the backfield before this play even gets started. Both Massey(-1) and Long(-1) lose their guys instantly.|
|Clear contact after the ball is in the air; an obvious call. (CA, 1, protection 1/1)|
|Wad wad wad wad wad.|
|O1||2||G||Goal line||Run||1||Hart||Zone right|
|The "Lionized" run. All effort.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-6, 8 min 4th Q.|
|PSU lines up with a sizable gap between DT and DE on the playside that's supposed to be filled with a blitzing linebacker. Kraus(+1) takes his momentum and shoves him back as Boren and Long get their blocks; no linebacker support with the blitz and Hart is into the secondary.|
|Penn State crashes into this, getting a guy past Kraus(-1) into the backfield immediately; the frontside is overrun and Hart has nowhere to go.|
|PSU with an extra man in the box; we're obviously running; it's a draw. What? Schilling(-1) gets driven back yards by the defensive end, Hart has to orbit around him in the backfield. The rest of it is jammed up.|
|Mallett's to-and-fro pocket
scrambling thing; Mallett rolls out and finds Mathews open. Replay shows that no one was open at first. Excellent play (DO, 3, protection 3/3)
|Massey beaten by his guy, who closes and tackles near the LOS on an otherwise well-blocked play.|
|Michigan allows the DL to slant upfield as they pass block; there's a crease created by this. Moundros crashes into Connor's legs, which is only mildly effective. Hart's only option is to run up into the mess.|
|Interesting: PSU so committed to the run here that they have basically no deep safety with Scirotto moving up at the snap; if Mallett waits like two extra seconds he has Arrington wide open on a seam running free. But a completed slant for a first is good, too. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)|
|Schilling(-1) again blown backwards. Very tough game for him.|
|Connor stands up Moundros in the Long-Kraus gap and Hart's cutback is into a bunch of bodies.|
|Apparently ABC just decided not to show this. It was a swarmed zone left IIRC.|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 1 min 4th Q.|
So, Mr Grumblypants, what about this playcalling stuff?
Well... after going over the tape I am less offended. Frequently Penn State was lined up in decently attractive fronts to run against and Michigan just couldn't execute its blocks. Also, Mallett was extremely shaky in the first half and was clearly an option not to be leaned on. Still, I question the lack of simple routes against Penn State's frequently-displayed three deep zone.
Also bothersome: two instances upon which Michigan found itself in second and very short in the redzone and declined to use the opportunity for anything other than a three-yard run. The one at the 11 was the biggest disappointment. If Michigan gets down to the five or something, pounding it into the endzone is a real possiblity. First and goal from the ten is basically a field goal attempt when you're running against this Penn State defense.
|Oregon - Henne||1||13||6||3||1||0||3|
|Oregon - Mallett||3||7||2||3||1||1||2|
|ND - Mallett||2||7||4||1||0||2||0|
|PSU - Mallett||3||12||6||3||6||1||2|
This is a seriously rough outing; things were seriously rougher in the first half. At one point I looked down and I was checking off a fifth IN and Mallett was like on 4 CAs, one of them generous. Kid was very shaky early aside from that ridiculous post dart to Arrington. In the second half, things improved greatly.
Special Mallettchart addendum as requested by some commenters:
I... wow. This has to be something of a coincidence, right? I am not a believer in Shotgun, the Curer of Ills, but my God that's stark.
Oh, and protection: 42/51, -3 Schilling, -2 Massey, -1 Kraus, -3 "team" on missed blitz pickups or a batted ball. More on Schilling and the blocking later. First, receiverchart:
An outstanding day. Anything that was catchable was caught.
What was the deal with all the Penn State defensive tackles all up in Mike Hart's grill?
One: Penn State appears to have an outstanding DT rotation. Though Michigan had played three very sketchy defenses to start the year, they were moving guys like Trevor Laws around like they were on skates. The Lions had guys overpowering Michigan players time and again. They're young but Penn State's defensive line was extremely impressive in the run game.
Two: I think PSU had a plan coming into the game that was high-risk, high-reward. Time and again Ogbu or Odrick would actually duck behind the OL firing out to one side or the other, engaging momentarily, then swimming behind the guy. This was one source of all that penetration. Sometimes it worked to the tune of a three yard TFL. If the DEs and linebackers did well enough to slow Hart at all, the DT coming from behind would crush him. However, when this did not happen the out of position DT would end up diving at Hart's legs and there was a major gap for him to exploit. Thus the infuriating pattern of Hart running for 13 or 9 or whatever alternating with three-yard losses that put Michigan behind the eight ball. Note the pattern above: hardly any three-and-outs for Michigan and a lot of first downs but there's always one series that starts out with Hart getting tackled for no gain or a loss and usually a punt that follows shortly thereafter.
Three: Steve Schilling and Justin Boren both had poor outings, Schilling moreso than Boren. This is not entirely unexpected in both's first start against class-A competition. Schilling got blown into the backfield multiple times, and though he maintained a few blocks nicely he was overall a liability.
Four: Mike Massey's not much of a blocker.
The end result was the most negative rushes in Hart's career. Hart lost 22 yards on various carries; his total for the entirety of last year was 39 yards.
So the PSU defensive plan was to bleed a couple first downs and play it safe until they could put Mallett in third and long?
Yes, and it worked. Penn State held Michigan to ten points, basically, if you discount the ten-yard touchdown drive and credit Michigan with the drive that ended in a Brabbs special 29 yard missed field goal. It was a good idea, and if they had any help from their offense it probably would have resulted in a win.
Is there anything we can do about this?
I don't know, man. I think Iowa employed a similar strategy to good effect last year until we started running what looked like intentional zone counters. Why didn't we go with some of that TE-pull stuff that worked so well the last couple weeks? We only ran it once and on that play it was blown up by DT penetration, then we went away from it entirely. Our single other misdirection play was the near-disastrous end-around that PSU was fortunate to blitz an aware defender into. Other than that, bupkis. The lack of misdirection seems a major problem with this run game against competition with guys who can slash into the backfield. See: the Rose Bowl, when Trojan NT Sedrick Ellis crushed Mike Hart over and over, and Iowa, when the undersized but slashing Iowa DL held Michigan down for a half and most of a game.
So what does it mean for Northwestern?
Given Northwestern's performance year to date, probably nothing. It does portend ill for the end of year matchup against OSU and Wisconsin and possibly the upcoming Illinois game. We'll have to find a way to combat PSU's strategy or there will be lots of stops and starts and punts.
This week's guest is Northwestern blog Lake The Posts, your one-stop shop for Wildcat bloggin. No chit chat this time, just a barrage of questions.
I kind of expected Northwestern to be their usual 6-6, 7-5 selves with a significant upset somewhere along the line. Then you lose to Duke and get housed by Ohio State. So... uh... what happened?
So did NU Nation. [Yikes... N_ Nation is not a good thing to call yourself around these parts. -ed] The Duke game exposed the fact that our much anticipated defense is really not much different than it has been for most of this decade - which is to say - not good. Those in the know here thought this unit was the best since '95 in terms of potential, but they simply haven't produced. Part of the problem has been from very conservative play-calling -- minimal blitzes and pressure packages. The Duke game scared all of us b/c we are very sensitive to "Dark Ages" (pre-95) references. When you are the holder of the all-time DI losing streak (which we STILL are at 34 games) and you play someone who has lost 22 straight the Lou Holtz in all of us gets scared of the karma and many predicted a tight game. The actual game was a result of poor game management - we actually took 3 points off the board in the FIRST half to go for a 4th and 3 and likewise went for TDs instead of the sure FGs in the second half that would have won the game.
The Ohio State game has sent the Purple mafia on a tirade thinking the 2 week stretch has diminished 12 years of respectable play. That is why this week's game is so big for us. Purple pride is on the line.
Were these losses fluky in any sense -- turnovers and rabbits tripping quarterbacks and so forth and so on -- or were they more indicative of systemic problems that will last the season?
No - that is the scary part. Duke beat us from start to finish and made our D look terrible in the process. We looked like a HS team against the Buckeyes. It was worse than the score indicated. The only "fluke" is that Tyrell Sutton, our best player, sat out both games due to an ankle injury and is questionable again this week. The difference between our program and yours is speed and depth. Sutton is the glue to the spread b/c he is the best receiving RB in the conference and there is a huge drop-off to our back-ups. The systemic issues are 1st half terrible play followed by 2nd half respectable play which leads to coaching questions. There are a lot of head scratchers about the validity of our coaching staff right now.
Michigan fans are always a little jumpy against the Wildcats because NU's run-based spread option has been successful in the past. And I'm not sure if you know this, but Michigan is rumored to have some slight issues with that sort of offense this year. Any chance Northwestern puts up 30? Is Bacher much of a runner?
Great question. With Sutton - yes. Without - not a chance. How good he'll be even if he plays is the big question. We are deep at WR, but have no gamebreakers. Our lone true stud (Andrew Brewer) is out for the year (see depth comment above). We truly spread the wealth and ding you to death with 5-7 yard passes. Bacher has shown that he is mobile, not like Juice Williams, but he has had several key runs (3 of 20+ in 4th quarters) when the game was on the line. We like Bacher, but he has been inconsistent - although part of the blame rests with the WRs who have been less than reliable.
It is not the Zak Kustok or Brett Basanez spread by any means. Bacher has only played 8 games and is just starting to develop the flow - that was until the last two weeks. Despite last week's debacle, he is third in the conference in passing. He always seems to make one or two bad decisions a game that lead to INTs. I like him though.
How is the offensive line? Michigan's overrun a couple of meh lines the last couple weeks... can NU avoid this fate?
Good not great. Our center, Trevor Rees, is the anchor, but all bets are off after last week's showing when OSU absolutely crushed us on the line giving Bacher zero time to find receivers. It was downright scary.
Ryan Mallett is likely to start, [Just IMO. -ed] which means Michigan will be running on most plays that don't start with "third" and end with something like "and sixteen". How is NU's young defensive line holding up? How did Beanie Wells do?
Our D-line was supposed to be the crowned jewel of the entire team. It has turned out to be the biggest disappointment. We rarely get penetration and have proven uncapable of not getting scorched in the secondary. We seem to faceguard and yet never know when the ball is arriving - it is a trend that has been with us for years and is infuriating. Beanie Wells ran at will against us. We tend to go "nice stop, nice stop...oops 20 yard run...nice stop nice stop....oops 30 yard pass".
What's the general opinion on Pat Fitzgerald? It seems too early to have anything definitive, but are there some positive indicators?
General opinion is hot seat -- already. I love the guy. His passion is unquestioned and who better to be at the helm than a smart guy who was the heart and soul of the team that turned around the program. Last year, everyone was in shellshock and chalked up a mulligan. Fitz inherited the reigns with 6 weeks til the first game, had a slew of new coaching staff and had the unenviable task of keeping assistants 20 years his elder part of the "team". General consensus is that he needs to get "his" guys in at the assistant spots and most people want to see D-coordinator Greg Colby gone. The players love to play for Fitz, but there is a major learning curve he's going through having jumped from LB coach to head coach. Bielema was groomed, Fitz was bodyslammed. It has been an extremely disappointing year to date, and the true test will be how we play in October. Attendance has been laughable. The MSU and Minnesota games are must wins after this weekend. No confidence in the program right now, but we're all trying to point to something positive. Grasping. Anything. We keep hitting rewind on the 2000 game.
Michigan 41 NU 14.
[Wow. I can't imagine Mallett-led Michigan putting up more than 30 on anyone with a pulse. -ed]
138... is the number of yards Mike Hart should max out at against Northwestern. Is this low for a team that is not particularly good? Perhaps. But there is a reason:
Hart is just 139 yards away from breaking the school's career rushing record.
Hopefully Michigan does not need Hart to exceed this number against the Wildcats -- dude also could use something of a break after 44 carries against Penn State -- and he can break the record at home.
Scotty 2 Hotty. The worm, in digital form:
This should end all debates about whether it was Hart or Manningham.
Michigan == sexxy. First, Essence highlighted Braylon Edwards and Dhani Jones as two of the three most do-able dudes (who are also awesome and charitable people) in the NFL. Now, Leon Hall stars in a Macy's ad campaign for something or another with Robert Palmer-esque chicks:
Hockey TV. The hockey schedule has been updated with television info; a whopping 24 of Michigan's regular season games will be televised on a huge variety of networks: CSTV, the BTN, Comcast Local, Fox Sports Detroit, and a couple of regional sports networks elsewhere: FSN North for the Icebreaker and one Boston U game on "CN8". Oddly, no ESPNU.
Moffatt(!). The commitment of 2010 forward Luke Moffatt was noted here with a WHL disclaimer, but Western College Hockey says that the Moffatts have changed their tune:
Shortly after the article ran, the Moffatt family said that the quotes pertaining to Luke's decision were said on Tuesday, and by Thursday, when he made his decision to commit to Michigan, he had completely made up his mind and was 100% committed to the NCAA route.
As always, there is a catch:
That sounds like good news for Michigan. Of course, a more cynical person might say that Moffatt's camp felt they lost bargaining power with Kelowna, and "playing the NCAA card" might be a way to gain more leverage. It certainly wouldn't be the first case of that. It should be interesting to watch this situation play out over the next couple of years.
More. Bob Miller took in the captains' practice and reports back:
Max Pacioretty was the player who stood out most in one day's observation. His size/skill combination should be very effective. Quick on his skates despite his size, he showed several nice moves and, ready for this, finished when he had the opportunity. Skates with very solid, balanced form. Quick to spot an opportunity and capitalize on it.
Also says he would not be surprised if Porter/Kolarik, Turnbull/Pacioretty, Rust/Hagelin, and Caporusso/Palushaj were duos that stayed together during the year as the third members rotate through. I'm a little wary of taking Pacioretty, a first round draft pick, and sticking him on a checking line.
Etc.: The Realests guarantee Les Miles is the guy; Band member collapses, is okay, hanging out with Lloyd; UFR-esque things spread to Iowa; Black Shoe Diaries had a nice trip to Ann Arbor, except for the game part; Drew Sharp doesn't even go to press conferences; MVictors has another killer post on Michigan history, this on the Joy Miller scandal of 1909; Braves & Birds rips into Mandel's stupid defense of the media circling the wagons on this Gundy thing.
If this looks goofy, it's because I did it in IE. Firefox and Blogger are acting funny as a combined unit.
|O22||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Run||-1||Zone Read Handoff|
|Michigan brings up Harrison as a blitzer, shifting Adams in man over the slot receiver. And... wow. Penn State just doesn't block anyone. Will Johnson's allowed into the backfield unmolested, forcing Scott outside. This is not where the play is supposed to go, so John Thompson is unblocked and makes a TFL. This is all on PSU sucking. I guess we can give Johnson a +1.|
|O21||2||11||I-Form Twins||Base 4-3 â€“ Zone||Run||1||FB Dive|
|Oh, Paterno. You suck. Taylor(+1) occupies two blockers like he should, refusing to get moved and allowing Thompson to come up to make an unmolested tackle.|
|O22||3||10||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Penalty||-5||False Start|
|Will Johnson(+1) gets the RG on his heels by shoving him almost into an onrushing Crable; Morelli sees the now freed Johnson and starts scrambling up. CGraham(+1) recognizes that he has no one in his zone and starts to close; three Wolverines meet at Morelli. Coverage was good. (Cover +1, Pressure +1)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 3rd Q.|
|O20||1||10||Shotgun 5-wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||-10||Fumble|
|Oh, Morelli. You suck. Also: so does your offensive line. Michigan lines up with three DL and then two linebackers lined up outside the tackles taking an aggressive posture. Both blitz; neither is picked up by the offensive line. Both tackles block down, letting CGraham have an unfettered shot at Morelli. He whiffs(-1), overpursuing foolishly. BGraham, one of the "linebackers" in this set(+1) does not, coming up from behind to sack and strip. (Pressure +1).|
|Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-0, 9 min 4th Q.|
|O28||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel â€“ Man||Run||1||Off tackle|
|It's safe to say that Penn State is not looking to get its right tackle stood up and driven backwards by Shawn Crable, DE (+1). Will Johnson(+1) also drives into the backfield. Crable disconnects and tackles as the linebackers come to help, but this play was dead because of the line and makes me miss Woodley and Branch very much indeed.|
|Adams walks up into a robber zone as John Thompson comes around on a delayed blitz that gets him in unblocked. He hammers Morelli as he throws a duck to Norwood on an out route. Wide open; disappointing because if Morelli has to hesitate for a moment he's sacked for a big loss. (Pressure +1, cover -1, Harrison -1). Believe this is man cover here and this is Harrison's guy.|
|Morelli on a designed rollout that buys him enough time to find Norwood in a gaping hole in Michigan's zone. Can't really fault the pressure here. Again, if Morelli has to hold onto the ball another instant Crable will crush him. (Cover -2). After the reception the ball pops out. I think the replay guys got this right, as Norwood's ass hit the ground before the ball came out, but is this indisputable? It's so close.|
|O48||1||10||Shotgun 2-back||Nickel â€“ Rush||Pass||13||Screen|
|Williams as one of the running backs; the triple option formation we saw out of our opening opponents a lot. This is just a run-of-the-mill screen. John Thompson(-1) reacts late, then comes up too hard, getting weakly chopped by an OL and allowing Scott to dart past him. Then Donovan Warren(-1) takes a terrible angle, yielding another five yards.|
|Jamison(-2) eschews his contain responsbility by attempting to come inside a blocker; Brandon Harrison(+1) does a nice job of taking down Williams in the open field. A dangerous situation that Jamison was fortunate didn't go for many more.|
|The pump fake draw we saw plenty of makes its debut. No one actually bites, surprisingly. This goes for good yardage because Will Johnson(-1) attempts to disengage from his guy and puts himself in a terrible position, getting driven downfield when holding the POA probably means third and three. CGraham(-1) also screws up, though he did a nice job dealing with a blocker, by going too far upfield and waving at the legs of Scott.|
|M25||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||-6||Waggle (Sack)|
|BGraham(+1), unblocked, keeps contain and doesn't overrun, forcing Morelli up into Jamison(+1) who just discarded Cadogan like he was an irritating pixie. (Pressure +2)|
|Dropped; Thompson in good position if this was completed. (Cover +1)|
|M31||3||16||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Pass||Inc||TE Dig|
|Outstanding coverage from Adams(+2, cover +2) to come over the top and break the pass up.|
|Drive Notes: PUNT!!!!!!!, 7-0, 5 min 1st Q. Well, at least there's one coach out there who hates David Romer more than ours.|
|O34||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel||Run||0||Off tackle|
|I'm not sure what this play design is supposed to be, but when you don't block Chris Graham he can run up and tackle your crappy tailback. This he does. Credit to BGraham(+1) at DE for occupying a double team and nearly splitting it.|
|O34||2||10||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel||Run||2||Off tackle|
|Kinlaw decides to cut this back... probably the right idea as the guard was way late getting out to the second level. As he does this, Will Johnson(+2) reads it and slips his guy to make a great shoestring tackle to prevent a potential big gainer. (Harrison did slip the block of Norwood and had a shot at this, but it looked potentially dicey.)|
|We miss most of this play, coming back just as Morelli is about to be swamred by three rushers. He lets an out fly downfield, which is overthrown. Probably good thing it is; Trent(+1) in excellent coverage. (Cover +1).|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 1 min 1st Q. Mathews snags the punt at the sideline and makes an excellent twelve yard return out of it.|
|Taylor(+1) occupies a double team without giving ground, allowing Graham to flow up into the hole. He's met by Hahn, but blows through his block and slows the play up enough for Crable to pick up a TFL. (+1 CGraham.)|
|Same pump fake draw. I'm not sure WTF Taylor(-1) is doing on this play, but he just stands up at the LOS. Meanwhile, Johnson(-1) gets turned inside and there's major gap. We were blitzing away from the play, leaving only Thompson as a linebacker, and it would have been tough to stop this play even without the gaping and the meinlaven.|
|Jamison as a standup DE. Morgan Trent(-1) gets beaten a little bit on this route, then does not get his head around on a very poorly thrown ball. There's a play on it if he does. Result: first down. (Cover -2)|
|Thompson(-1) bites hard on a play action fake and I don't know WTF Harrison(-1) thinks he's doing but the result is a wide open TE seam... that Morelli completely ignores. Should have been moot as Johnson(+1) beats his man and is flagrantly held without a call; this flushes Morelli, who scrambles for a minor gain. (Pressure +1, cover -2)|
|Thompson(-1) slow to recognize this despite it being the third time they've run it. No plays from anyone along the line; Johnson single blocked and eliminated.|
|M41||3||1||I-Form Big||Base 4-3||Run||2||Off tackle|
|Kinlaw manages to squeeze this out as he's forced outside but Adams can't quite get an angle to stop him before the marker.|
|M39||1||10||I-Form||Base 4-3||Pass||23||PA Seam|
|Overshifted; Morelli gives a play action fake and has a ton of time. Quarless wide open twenty yards downfield. (Cover -2, pressure -2). Thompson(-1), CGraham(-1).|
|M16||1||10||Shotgun 2-back||Base 4-3||Pass||2||Screen|
|Execution of this is all screwed up, but a point for Taylor(+1) for reading this and turning back, forcing one of Kinlaw's blockers to peel off and allowing Thompson to come in without harassment.|
|M14||2||8||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Run||3||Zone Read Handoff|
|Uh... don't know what Scott's thinking but he has a wide open lane he decides against taking â€“ I guess CGraham was filling unblocked -- in favor of leaping over a ton of bodies for a few yards.|
|M11||3||5||Shotgun 5-wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Inc||Slant|
|Warren(-1) beaten. (Cover -1) Morelli throws it to Tacopants.|
|Drive Notes: FG (28), 7-3, 9 min 2nd Q.|
|Much better gap integrity from the DTs this time. They close it down, but can't come off to do anything except hold this to a moderate gain.|
|Little stop route on a half rollout. Trent(+1) tackles immediately. Decent enough.|
|Highly questionable playcall, no? They roll Morelli out a bit again; he ignores a guy open on a little stop route for the first down in favor of winging a ball -- without setting his feet -- to a guy Harrison's somewhat close to. It bounces off the turf.|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-3, 2 min 2nd Q.|
|O18||1||10||I-Form Twins||Undershifted 4-3||Run||-2||Off tackle|
|Michigan all over this. Crable(+2) defeats a block from the TE and slices into the backfield for a stop. Good job by Graham in the middle. (+1 BGraham)|
|O16||2||12||I-Form Twins||Undershifted 4-3||Pass||Inc||PA Flag|
|Morelli getstime, though Johnson gets to him as he throws the ball. This is out to Quarless, who makes a miracle catch two yards OOB. Ball obviously overthrown but Morelli had little option here, as Warren(+1) was in great coverage and the window was tiny here. (Cover +1)|
|O16||3||12||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel â€“ Rush||Pass||Inc||Post|
|Very delayed corner blitz from Warren is ill timed; he compounds this by falling down as he reaches Moelli. This does cause Morelli to get rid of the ball to Norwood over the middle. Englemon and Adams converge, knocking the ball loose. (Cover +1, Englemon +1)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-3, 11 min 3rd Q.|
|A short little out against Warren, who is playing way off. (cover -1)|
|O25||2||4||Ace 3-Wide||Undershifted 4-3||Run||3||Zone left|
|At least we're not the only one stupidly running into stacked lines. We overload this, they run at it anyway. Jamison is totally unblocked and since Taylor(+1) is clogging the middle Scott has nowhere to go. Jamo(-1) whiffs on the tackle and turns a should-be one yard loss into a two-yard gain.|
|O28||3||1||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel â€“ Rush||Run||19||Off guard|
|Now this I don't understand in the slightest. It's third and one, we're playing Penn State and Anthony Morelli, and we play a straight nickel with soft coverage behind it. This is a down to crowd the line. Instead we have our rush DL w/ Crable a DE and BGraham a DT. Inexplicable. They run right at Crable and BGraham, as there's a crease between the two. CGraham(-1) gets blocked too easily and there's a major hole up the middle. Awful.|
|O47||1||10||I-Form||Base 4-3 <|
|Pass||11||PA FB flat|
|Penn State's band plays the White Stripes. You are not allowed to do that, tools. CGraham(-1) bites on the playfake and lets Hahn get wide open.|
|M42||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||Base 4-3||Pass||11||PA Wheel|
|A fake handoff, then a fake end around. Morelli has all day (pressure -2), eventually finding the end-around guy on a wheel route after the deep stuff is covered. CGraham(-1) again with terrible coverage. (Cover -1)|
|M31||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||Undershifted 4-3||Run||0||Dive|
|BGraham(+2) defeats a block, gets free, and tackles this for no gain.|
|All day for Morelli; Butler wide open in zone coverage. We have no one anywhere near the middle of the field. (Pressure -2, cover -2). This drive has been too easy for PSU. This appears to be man coverage that Warren(-2) blows badly.|
|Hahn decides to head outside, blocking no one. Jamison doesn't have contain responsibility since there's a weakside blitz; he flows down the line and nails Scott. This hit shouldn't really force a fumble, so no points for Jamison. Okay... +1. Trent recovers.|
|Drive Notes: Fumble, 7-3, 6 min 3rd Q. Fumble, IMO, is legit on replay.|
|M35||1||10||I-Form||Base 4-3||Pass||Inc||PA FB flat|
|CGraham(+1) does a good job here of convincing Morelli to go to the shorter route, then closing on it. Ball is poorly thrown and allows him to make a play; would have gone for like two otherwise. Probably an error on Morelli's part, as if he gave his WR another moment he would likely have broken open. Maybe not; safety could have been in good position. Don't know. (Cover +1).|
|Pump fake draw. BGraham(+1) comes through to foul this; CGraham finishes it off, unblocked. A primary reason he is: Warren blitzes off the corner, diverting Hahn. Our rock, their scissors.|
|M37||3||12||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Pass||11||TE Out|
|Harrison blitzes. Quarless runs a little out route here coupled with a skinny post from the outside reciever; Michigan is in three-deep. So Warren's backpedaling off the snap and Graham is covering the guy on the post, leaving Quarless time to turn the ball upfield. Would like better reaction from Warren or Graham here but really this is just an excellent call againts likely cover three that is designed to pick up part of it for a go-for-it on fourth down. Actually, on further review Graham gets a -1 because the ball had been in the air a long, long time before he realized it.|
|M26||4||1||I-Form Big||Undershifted 4-3||Run||1||Off tackle|
|This is an atrocious, atrocious spot. Michigan has him stopped short, his forward progress done. Englemon and Adams have him, and then some PSU OL come in and shove the pile forward three seconds after the play is over. This should be a turnover.|
|M24||1||10||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel||Pass||15 (pen)||TE Seam|
|Man zero from Michigan with two blitzers who do not get there (pressure -2). Adams is all alone with Quarless, gets beat(-1, cover -1) and interferes.|
|CGraham(+1) stands up a pulling guard in the hole, jamming it up and forcing Kinlaw into a mess of bodies.|
|M7||2||G||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel||Pass||5||PA Stop|
|Williams comes slightly open as two PSU receivers cross; Thompson is there to haul him down before he can get into the endzone. Neither credit nor blame here; a small window and a good job by Morelli to get it in there with good timing.|
|M2||3||G||Goal line||Goal line||Run||-10 (pen)||Pitch sweep|
|Holding on PSU. Adams(+1) makes an excellent play on the edge here. Trent also did well.|
|M12||3||G||Shotgun 3-wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Inc||Dig|
|Trent(+1) in excellent coverage(+1). Ball thrown short of the endzone anyway.|
|Drive Notes: FG, 7-6, EO3rd. This is a no-brainer here to take the penalty, IMO. This is one shot at a TD from the 12 plus a field goal versus one shot at a TD from the 2. Given the situation in the game, this is the correct decision.|
|O20||1||10||Shotgun 2-back||Nickel||Pass||Inc||PA Flag|
|Crable(+1) beats the tackle around the edge, forcing Morelli to scrabmle and hurl a ball he's basically throwing away to the sidelines. (Pressure +2, cover +1). Trent(+1) in good position.|
|O20||2||10||Ace 3-Wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Run||6||Draw|
|Obvious pass rush configuration here; they run a draw as we blitz our way into a big hole. Jamar Adams comes up to make a decent open field tackle, holding the gain down. The stunting we were doing put us in trouble from the start.|
|O26||3||4||Ace 3-Wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||13||Cross|
|Yuck. We end up with John Thompson chasing Derrick Williams; this does not work out. Again with the fruitless stunting; only rushing four guys there should be better coverage here. (Cover -1)|
|Warren playing way off Williams, so this is an easy pitch and catch. (Cover -1)|
|Corner blitz from Warren. BGraham(-1) stunts here and gets way too far outside; Englemon(-1)does a very poor job in space once he gets to the second level; CGraham(-1) meekly accepts blocking. Minuses for all!|
|Will Johnson(+2) absorbs a double team and splits it, stopping this for a minimal gain.|
|M14||2||9||Ace 3-Wide||Nickel||Pass||Inc||TE Seam|
|Crable(+1) leaps a cut block and forces Morelli to throw into traffic; Adams(+1) breaks it up. (Cover +1, pressure +1)|
|M14||3||9||Shotgun 3-wide||Nickel||Pass||Inc||TE Out|
|Taylor(+1) comes through the line immediatley, presuring Morelli; he does a decent job of buying a second or two and Thompson loses Quarless. Morelli can't get set and flings out a looper to him; Quarless drops it as two DBs coverge on him would have been fourth down and go-for-it distance if this is complete. (Pressure +2, cover -1).|
|Drive Notes: FG(31), 6 min 4th Q.|
|Crable spends this drive as a standup DT. Crable(+1) crahses into two guys, freeing Brandon Graham on a stunt; Morelli rolls out and wings it into the crowd. (Pressure +2)|
|BGraham(+2) obliterates the OT on this play and is on Morelli immediately. Jamison(+1) was also coming free. Another throwaway. (Pressure +2)|
|Better time; still not great. Will Johnson(+1) comes through, forcing a throw to Norwood that's high; Adams(+1) breaks it up. (Pressure +1, cover +1)|
|M13||4||10||Ace 3-Wide||3-3-5 Nickel||Pass||Inc||Desperation Heave|
|Better time again; Crable makes a nice second effort to come free. Morelli hurls it deep to a double covered guy; Adams(+1) breaks it up. (Cover +1.)|
|Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 14-9, EOG.|
No touchdowns? We're back!
NSFMF. For the first time ever, UFR has an opposing counterpart on a rival blog. RUTS went through the Penn State offense like a six year old rushing Notre Dame's quarterback. The general results are mostly "arrrgh we suck"; for a primer check the Appalachian State UFR.
There are some items of agreement, like on the first play...
RUTS: Michigan rushes five against our five. I'll give you one guess what happens. The DT's pinch to the inside, and the PSU tackles dutifully follow. That leaves TWO unblocked blitzers, one from each side, as our five OL block three Michigan DL.
MGoBlog: Oh, Morelli. You suck. Also: so does your offensive line. Michigan lines up with three DL and then two linebackers lined up outside the tackles taking an aggressive posture. Both blitz; neither is picked up by the offensive line. Both tackles block down, letting CGraham have an unfettered shot at Morelli.
... but overall I think he's a bit harsh to Morelli, who made a lot of questionable throws but had reasons for some of them. That ill-fated screen on first and goal is one such instance. It gets charted "IN" when the problem was not so much with Morelli as with the rest of the team. Michigan did force Penn State into some of its cruddy offense.
But, well... not all of it. I remember thinking "oh, that's six points" on the little third down slant Warren got owned on, but Morelli airmailed it like whoah. He missed wide open receivers several times, scrambled himself into trouble frequently, and generally was Anthony Morelli all day. Against a better quarterback the results will not be nearly so pretty. It remains to be seen whether there is a better quarterback on the schedule, but IMO the jury remains very much out on the defense.
|Jamison||3||3||0||Least effective DL by a longshot.|
|Johnson||9||2||7||Major cause of most stuffs; also showed a decent pass rush. Caveat: interior OL for Penn State not very good.|
|Taylor||5||1||4||Probably thinking "hallelujah, someone who will run straight at me."|
|Crable||6||-||6||Made a couple plays in the run game.|
|B. Graham||9||1||8||Might be the best player on the D by a mile. Still waiting.|
|Thompson||-||4||-4||Didn't do anything when blocked; left a number of guys open.|
|C. Graham||4||8||-4||Well, at least he's doing some stuff right.|
|Trent||4||1||3||Quietly pretty solid this year.|
|Warren||1||4||-3||Needs to work on his tackling.|
|Adams||6||1||5||No screwups and many PBUs.|
|Englemon||1||1||1||Typical for him.|
|"Pressure"||16||8||8||A large portion of the plus column came on PSU last "drive"; note the vast discrepancy between the totals here (24) versus Notre Dame (only 8); ND hardly had a pass play on which they went downfield. And they still got sacked eight times.|
|"Coverage"||13||18||-5||Morelli did not exploit a few wide open receivers, so this was more like a 0 to +3 the way it played out. Still, we did not cover them as well as the stats might suggest.|
Excellent day from the DTs, but remember they were going up against a couple of very questionable guards. BGraham was also very good; the same Cadogan-inspired caveat applies to him. Jamison wasn't great but many of the plays he made were not credited highly because of Penn State incompetence; he did do okay.
Linebackers? Are poo! If Morelli had the common sense to look for his kickass tight end (seriously, that one handed catch OOB from Quarless was sweet) more frequently he could have gone for a hundred yards. Thompson did nothing unless he was permitted a free path to the ball; Graham alternated okay to good plays with really bad coverage. If Jonas Mouton isn't seeing any time at all, he must either be badly in
jured or just bad. Or maybe not. Lord knows this coaching staff often hangs onto their veterans for dear life even if they're obviously very bad.
Warren had a tough day in the secondary, but Trent has quietly emerged into a solid player. I can't remember one issue with his coverage yet save the Todd Howard special in the second quarter, which is irritating but forgivable. And Jamar Adams had the day only a hesitant, open-receiver-allergic quarterback can give a safety.
Adams, Will Johnson, and Brandon Graham. Graham has been very impressive against dubious competition so far. He'll have another two game warmup period before facing Purdue and their potentially very good offensive line. But he may be the best player on the defense already. Johnson was extremely disruptive against both pass and run; Adams broke up everything.
The linebackers and Warren.
What does it mean for Northwestern?
Well, this game does not mean terribly much for that game, but given the Wildcats' performance to date I don't think there will be huge issues. CJ Bacher is not Dennis Dixon, though he's decently mobile, and Michigan seems to have figured out that whole simple zone read handoff thing, albeit two games too late, especially against bleah offensive lines; Northwestern has one of these. If things go seriously wrong, and there is a chance of that, it's time to give up hope for the unit and pray that Henne comes back like 2006 Henne and, uh, we get a new theory of offense.
Hurray, that's the poll hurray. If you're interested, you can see all the individual ballots here.
Do NOT taunt the CK Award. It is truly wroth this year. Last week's winner, Journorock, chose to spit in the face of Angry Iowa Receiver Hating God upon receiving the award, titling a post "Why Brian is full of shit: Journo Rock and the CK Award" and highlighting the times previous when he won the award...
Winner, CK Award, Week One, 2005
The next game:
Alabama 26, Middle Tennessee 7
Winner, CK Award, Week Two, 2006
The next game:
Alabama 13, Vanderbilt 10
So there. Bitches.
...as if a three-point win over Vanderbilt isn't thorough proof of the fell power of the CK Award. (Not even the CKA can compel a victory or close game against Middle Tennessee... the only thing that can do that is Louisville's secondary (ZING!)). Anyway, the result:
Do not taunt the CK Award. It will fucking kill you.
Anyway... not much movement in the poll. LSU remains number one and picks up a few extra votes for solidly handling South Carolina; Penn State plummets, as does 'Bama; South Carolina isn't punished too hard for dropping a game at LSU, Georgia-- wait.
Is Georgia seriously above South Carolina? A brief resume recap:
- One meaningless I-AA hammering each.
- Blowout win for Georgia over bleah Okie State team that would lose to Troy; two touchdown victory over ULM for SoCar. Advantage Georgia.
- OT win over 'Bama for Georgia. Regulation win over frickin' Georgia for SoCar. Both on the road. Advantage SoCar.
- Loss to frickin' SoCar at home for Georgia; loss at #1 LSU for SoCar. Advantage SoCar.
Perhaps you're thinking "but what about the projection!", but in this case we have very little to project. There was a head-to-head matchup that South Carolina won, and they didn't even do it via fluke. And yet. And yet. Ooooh... it's time for...
Wack Ballot Watchdog:
First, an apology to The Hoosier Report, the lone pollster who hung on to Miami; the Canes did indeed cane the life out of A&M. Wackness retroactively retracted. Now onto the business of this Georgia thing.
Our biggest offender is Bruins Nation, which ranks the Dawgs a stunning eighth and shoves South Carolina down at #21. I mean... why bother even playing the games? Frank McGrath leaps UGA up to #10 and leaves South Carolina #19, also shoving 'Bama down to #21. Falcon Nation drops SC just two, to #11, but bumps UGA up to #10. RazorBloggers bumps UGA five and slides SC five, ending up with UGA #11 and SC #17. PittBlather never even bothered to put SC above UGA in the first place. Now they're #12 and #19. MountainLair: #13 and #20, respectively. 44::Orange: #13 and #19. Losers With Socks has UGA #14 and SC #15, something that could be repaired by switching the two and leaving the rest of the ballot completely alone. Corn Nation has UGA #14 and SC #21, Dump Dorrell #14 and #18. The Sports Frog also has an infuriating side-by-side with UGA #14 and SC #15. Dan Shanoff leaps UGA up to #15 and drops SC down to #22. The list goes on. You get the point.
Anyway, you all suck. I am ashamed of all of you and want you to think very hard about what you've done. Go sit in the corner. You suck. Other minor notes:
- Double Extra Point must have missed Thursday: Texas A&M #16.
- Similarly, 50-Yard Lion slides Texas Tech up four after their loss to Okie State, who I would remind you just took the pipe against the Troy Trojans of Troy (We're From Troy!)., up one slot.
A final reminder: anyone who put UGA above the OBC sucks. You suck.
Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.
Ballot math: First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.
This week's Mr. Bold. has been wrested from the hands of the resume-rankers as the difference between resume ranking and projection ranking slims; our victor comes from the opposite end of the political spectrum, as it were: Falcon Nation, a consistent winner of the Mr. Stubborn award who is very chill about having these "events" things affect his ballot. So he has things like Penn State #9, down only two, UGA #10, up two, South Carolina #11, down two, etc.
Mr. Numb Existence is poll n00b and Clemson blog Danny Ford is God with an impressive <1 average differential in a time of significant uncertainty. Welcome. (Ballot.)
Next we have the Coulter/Krugman Award and the Straight Bangin' Award, which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.
The CK Award hardly has to try this week: Michigan State blogger The Enlightened Spartan isn't bothered that they appear to be the only team in DI capable of giving up an 80 yard Notre Dame touchdown drive. He ranks State #14; this week the Spartans take on Wisconsin, whereupon their sketchy run defense will be exposed and t
heir battlements stormed by the Badger D.
During the season, the Straight Bangin' Award is often the property of blogs covering a highly-ranked team coming off a dispiriting loss. It's no surprise, then, that PSU blogs finish 1-2 here; Run Up The Score takes the prize for totally omitting PSU.
Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.
Mr. Manic Depressive goes to Badger Sports... probably because said blog totally forgot to include Florida. You know, Florida? Winners of the last like billion national championships in everything? Quarterbacked by an Ewok? Etc? This is why you should always post your draft ballots, so people can say things like "hey, idiot, where's Florida?"
Gopher Nation wins Mr. Stubborn. A remarkably placid ballot that had most teams right around where they go on the poll this week, this is more an anticipation of future events than anything else. This is another UGA-SC offender, though: #18 and #20. You suck.
When dinosaurs ruled the earth.
A set of clips just showed up on youtube that ask for their own post. Before...
... during ...
... and after ...
... the 1997 Penn State "Judgment Day" game that catapulted Michigan to #1, an eventual national championship, and inspired ESPN to name various college football weekends all sorts of dumb things like "Separation Saturday."
Remember that I don't look at previous ballots in an effort to reduce poll inertia, so some of the up-down stuff may not make complete sense. I much prefer arguments that don't consider the previous poll to be some sort of holy gospel: it was last week's guess and this is this week's guess, which may or may not be accurate.
Points of issue:
- UCLA? Yeah. I mocked Orson for including them last week but I watched their game against Washington and they were fairly impressive even without their starting quarterback. Chalk the Utah thing up to Dorrell being Dorrell.
- Oregon still has no D. They might not need one, though.
- Do not fuck with the CK award. GT took the pipe and so did Alabama. Just don't do it.
Comments and such will be considered; I have been adjusting my ballots this year but haven't had time to post the revised editions.
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