August 2007

Special Teams

Return Game
Rating: 3?

Yes, Michigan will miss Steve Breaston even if the team's maddening refusal to double the gunners limited his effectiveness. (Breaston's PR average dipped from 13.8 as a freshman to two years around 12.2 and finished at 11.4.) Why worry about Breaston making the third guy miss instead of the first? This is a preview, not a grumble-filled review. I should move on.

At punt returner, Johnny Sears sits atop the depth chart in Breaston's stead; Greg Mathews is behind him. No one knows what to expect from Sears -- he's never returned a punt -- but if that athleticism is for real he seems like as good a choice as any. Mathews, on the other hand, is an obviously safe choice, a guy who will not pull a Whitley but also will be happy to gain ten yards and get tackled. I would prefer someone with higher upside.

Brandon Minor is listed as the top kick returner, which might be okay. He showed quite a bit of speed as a freshman and might be suited for the north-south shallow cuts that seem most effective on kickoffs.

Carlos Brown is a wildcard. A top-50-ish speed back out of high school, one of the reasons Brown stuck around was the promise of a long look at both return positions. His ill-timed broken hand stripped him of the last couple weeks of camp and may hold him out of the Appalachian State game, but when he returns he'll be tried at both.

Kickers
Rating: 2.

Everybody is nervous about kicker. Redshirt freshman Bryan Wright, a scholarship kid, has a big leg but struggled with his accuracy so much that walkons threatened and took his job. Jason Gingell is the new guy. KC Lopata and Sam Buckman are also kicking around. How will they perform? It is MGoBlog policy not to speculate on kickers, but... obviously this is uncomfortable.

One note: Wright did win the kickoffs job, which is significantly more important this year what with the kickoffs from the 30 and all. Michigan might get a couple extra yards of field position out of it if Wright's leg is as big as they say.

Zoltan The Inconceivable returns for a sophomore year of punting. Last year he alternated the boomers that will win him the Heisman and the Space Emperor-dom some day with meh liners and a Ross Ryan-esque effective duck. Though ZTI managed a respectable 38th in gross punting (41.6 per), the net was good for only 57th. Some of this has to do with Ross Ryan's 14 punts, which averaged only 33 yards. But while I'd like it to be clear that I'm not criticizing ZTI in any way, lest my pitiful unworthiness draw attention from his terrible visage, it should be clear that his choice to occasionally zing a liner did not help matters. Most of Ryan's punts weren't returned, and yet Michigan allowed 27 returns on 64 punts. Zoltan punts were returned at an approximately 50% clip; though AJ Trapasso is obviously an inferior punter not even worthy of Zoltan's spit he managed to keep that down to around 25%.

Clearly this was all a ploy to lure others into a false sense of security, but improvement would be helpful to Michigan's endeavors this year.

Special Teams in Summary

BLEAH. Returners like Breaston don't come around every day; a major step back is in the offing. Kicker terrifies. There are three of them! The last time there were three they were Brabbs, Neinberg, and Finley. I recently downloaded the 2002 Washington game from MGoVideo, which at this moment in time is the most unpleasant possible win to expose yourself to. I will pray to Zoltan for good fortune in this area.

Zoltan himself is flawless, but his punting remains erratic. Major upside here and the downside is MOTS, which was still pretty good. Punting remains in good (flawless!) hands.

Schedule

Appalachian State is hot hot hot and maps and stuff.

Oregon scares the everloving crap out of me. I take heart in a run defense that was pretty bad last year and their quarterbacks' tendency to toss three interceptions a game, but when they aren't making errors they are rolling up yards like whoah. This game will be no joke.

Notre Dame, a small Catholic school of no importance in northern Indiana, is next. The same offense-defense matchup that ended last year's game before it started persists, except the one matchup that clearly favored Notre Dame (Abiamiri versus Riley) is kaput. Both teams turn over the other side of the ball extensively, but ND has no receivers and will have a QB in his third game (or less if they switch).

The Big Ten schedule opens up at home versus Penn State, which has a more experienced offensive line and a senior Anthony Morelli, but no Tony Hunt or, um, defensive line. (As time passes I get more leery about the PSU DL and sort of regret the optimism expressed in that preview.) A tough, losable game.

Michigan ends up @ Northwestern next. I didn't preview the Wildcats, but no losing here.

Eastern Michigan is worse than Appalachian State.

Purdue returns to the schedule after a two-year absence. This is not a gimme. Purdue is better suited to attack our secondary than anyone on the schedule save perhaps Oregon and returns a ton of starters. Their defense would have to improve vastly to stay in contact, though. Should be a comfortable win; could be dangerous.

Then it's @ Illinois. I dunno... will Juice Williams hit the ground in three tries? Can their defense stand up to Juggeroffense?

Minnesota will be a disaster area this year.

@ Michigan State. Decent offense, worst defense on the planet.

Playing Wisconsin @ Wisconsin looks to be the toughest test of the year. Though I believe the offense likely to founder, especially in the run game, the Wisconsin defense will be difficult to do anything against. I do think this is a spot we are fortunate to get them at, as they're a more veteran team and the season runup to this will help our highly touted but young players acclimate and get better. If Justin Boren and Steve Schilling had to deal with the Badger front seven in the Big Ten opener, serious concern would be had. As it is there is still concern but not overwhelming.

Ohio State is The Game.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

2006	Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +	Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
1.08 (4th)	12	14	3.23 (4th)	8	4	1.85 (52nd)

Ut-oh? Maybe. There's no way you can reasonably expect Michigan to maintain that ridiculous turnover margin. Sacks will probably go down significantly, reducing the number of turnovers forced, and twelve giveaways in a season is not replicable. Michigan is marked as overrated in this category.

But!... there's reason to expect Michigan to
remain significantly above average. Mike Hart, who everyone will tell you hasn't lost a fumble since the Iowa game his freshman year*, will receive the vast bulk of the carries. Chad Henne's thrown only eight interceptions over the past two years. Some of this safety has come at the cost of more effective offense and Michigan will be more likely to risk danger with experienced hands all around, but if there's one team in the country that can be expected to keep its giveaways down, it's the one with four-year starters at running back and quarterback.

A step back is likely, but turnover margin will still be significantly positive at year's end.

*(this is a technicality. A Ball State defender punched the ball out and forced a first-half safety, but apparently that doesn't count.)

Position Switch Starters

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

None unless you want to count Justin Boren's shift from guard to center... which is pretty harsh by the standards of this category. There are also similarly minor moves from possible (but not probable) starters: Obi Ezeh moves inside from the strongside at linebacker and Charles Stewart goes from corner to safety. Generally corner to safety moves are given a pass; it's the safety to corner thing that raises red flags.

None of those is alarming. One that was until recently: Andre Criswell from fullback to tight end. Carson Butler's return pushes him down to third on the depth chart, but unless there's a major surprise Michigan goes two deep at TE for 2007.

Dumbest Thing In CFN Preview

Just because.

Actually... there's nothing that egregious. Good job, CFN?

Flickr Says...

This is Sam's and I've posted it before (and put it in a book) but...

An Embarassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case

Oregon is losable, so are Penn State and Wisconsin and Ohio State and Purdue. But realistically Michigan should win at least two of those games even in the cold-sweat nightmare scenario and go 9-3, because that's historical imperative.

Best Case

12-0, obviously.

Final Verdict

Perhaps this is foolish, but I believe the Michigan offense will come fairly close to living up to all the hype. This is not likely to be reflected in the stats as Michigan will never go all Louisville on anyone and roll up a 73-10 victory, but in terms of meaningfully effective offense Michigan will be amongst the best in the country. This was the case in Brady's senior year and Navarre's senior year and Henne should be no different. You can even argue that Henne's got better talent surrounding him than either of those players. (This goes out the window if we meet USC, because evidently we have it in our Rose Bowl contract that Pete Carroll rushers are not to be blocked. But other than that.) Obviously this assumes full health. That 12-point difference between a healthy Mario and an injured Mario is highly encouraging... assuming Mario is healthy. But predicting injury is a rube's game (rubes I tell ya!) and so all these previews blithely assume everyone remains healthy, even if they mention a certain player being injury-prone. This one follows that model, but it's worth pointing out that Michigan has more to lose if Henne goes down than Wisconsin would or Minnesota would or Northwestern would.

The defense should be okay, difficult to run against and prone to getting opponents in third and long but frustratingly yielding improbable conversions. Big plays against will increase but not that much: no Mundy. The run defense will seem awful but only because of last year's dominant unit. A cornerback or two will prove decent. A return to the bad old days is not coming.

OOC
9/1	Appalachian State	Functional DNP
9/8	Oregon	Tossup
9/15	Notre Dame	Probable Win
10/6	Eastern Michigan	Functional DNP
Conference
9/22	Penn State	Probable win
9/29	@ Northwestern	Auto-win
10/13	Purdue	Probable win
10/20	@ Illinois	Probable win
10/27	Minnesota	Auto-win
11/3	@ Michigan State	Auto-win
11/10	@ Wisconsin	Tossup
11/17	Ohio State	Probable win
Absent:	Iowa, Indiana

Sometimes the binomial distribution bothers me. Like here. If you assume Michigan has a 90% chance to win all games -- which is pessimistic for a few but wildly optimistic for others -- it says:

Chance to win 12 games: .90 ^ 12 = 28.2%
Chance to win 11 games: 12c11 * .90 ^ 11 * .1 = 37.6 %

With a 90% chance to win every week! The binomial distribution is mean. It basically says to everyone except USC "never predict an undefeated season." So I don't, even when I am vastly overrating a particular Big Ten team that will go down in flames (Hi, Iowa 2006 and Purdue 2005.)

And I won't here for various reasons both arcanely mathematical and more practical. Like the cornerbacks. And the kicker. And the general bloody-mindedness of the universe. (This latter may not be so much "practical" as the immense paranoia of the Michigan fan circa 2007 but you'll never convince me of that.) Honestly, if you take a team with Michigan's talent and put it up against this schedule and play it 10,000 times the median record is probably going to be 10-2. There are too many potential hurdles, too many losable games, too much youth in key positions and too much vulnerability should any one of a number of players go down. Life in college football is hard.

(How does one justify this while simultaneously ranking Michigan in the top five? Everyone else's median is even more likely to be 10-2 or 9-3 or worse. Anyone in the top five is set up to fail unless they are a true juggernaut like USC or have a Florida State-in-the-90s schedule with no conference threats whatsoever.)

But... whatever. This is the reality of every season. Predicting the top three teams in the Big Ten to go 10-2 every year would probably be more accurate in the long run but it would also be a soulless exercise... and if college football has anything, it's got soul. Official on the record offering: 11-1. You have my permission to round up a posse and hunt me down if the team
implodes.

Huzzah: NJ LB JB Fitzgerald has committed. He's an outside linebacker currently sitting just outside the top 100 of both Rivals and Scout, an excellent pickup. No googlestalking just yet, what with the previewing going on and all. I'll try to fit it in next week.

I stole all these pictures from RBUAS. What can I say? The man finds some damn pictures.

The Story

I decided I would go to Football Armageddon, or at least what seemed like Football Armageddon at the time. (One compensation for this offseason's nonstop torrent of SEC triumphalism in the aftermath of Ohio State's national title game pantsing is that last year's Michigan-Ohio State game now seems vastly less important than it did at the time. The comforts of a Michigan fan are small these days.)

Anyway, four of us rolled out of Michigan early in the morning: myself, a friend, and two people I didn't know, one a friend of my friend, the other his coworker. The coworker, who we'll call "Skeeter" for no reason whatsoever, cracked open a beer as we hit the highway. At 8 AM. It will turn out that Skeeter is a very, very stupid man. Friend of Friend, who is an exec type and I believe Skeeter's boss, has a posh house and a wife who made us all buttons.* Encased in plastic that would occasionally pop open and expose its contents to the wind were pictures of Bo Schembechler culled from that morning's Detroit News. I pocketed one. And we drove.

So four hours in a car in the early morning driving to Columbus pass, and then there's cars and parking's all full and there's chaos and I'm antsy because the scalpers are all asking for lots of money. When we finally managed to find parking -- an arduous process -- Skeeter took the opportunity to relieve himself by the side of the car, in plain site of portajohns. Oh, Skeeter.

I managed to locate a callous scalper and acquire a decent enough endzone ticket 30 rows up for a few hundred dollars; then we experienced authentic Ohio State-style tailgating, which involved waiting in line to get beer from a convenience store, then watching others drink that beer in a dingy, crammed, and depressing parking lot as an Ohio State fan attempted to convince me that fan behavior was just as bad at Michigan mere moments after describing High Street paved in beer cans. (For the record, 2006 was a huge step forward from 2002, which was probably the nadir; this isn't really about OSU fan behavior, it's about this irritating rat-faced guy I was talking to.) Eventually I decided to go into the game preposterously early because it was better than waiting around not drinking beer.

I entered. When I crested the threshold of my section and looked up... students. I was in the student section. I was going to die. I wore my Bo pin, stood stiff and unmoving, and made no eye contact. I managed to not break down during the pregame tribute, sat down several times so I would not die, and then when kickoff finally came watched Michigan rip off an opening touchdown drive that was a thing of beauty. When I inadvertently let a "go, Mario, go" slip out after the first play of the game an ornery looking Ohio State fan would turn around and glare, then complain to his friends I was going to ruin the game. I didn't say anything afterward, even when Michigan punched it in.

When I felt a tremor, I looked down at my hands. They were shaking uncontrollably. We were a third of the way to enough points to win the game. We were going to win. The Year of Infinite Pain was but the first act of a remarkable redemption story.

Then we kicked off.

It turns out 2006 was not the second act of a two-act play, or at least not one with any message other than "God has it in for you, specifically, for no real reason." No Michigan fan needs to be reminded of what happened from then on. It was a dour finish to a year that had been a triumphant return to... er... glory for a program in need of some. In my particular case, the agony of the Ohio State game was magnified tenfold when Skeeter, who had gone down to Columbus fully expecting to not go to the game because of its cost, failed to show at our agreed-upon meeting point after the game. Cell-phone reception being what it is after a major sporting event (nonexistent), the next hour -- I kid you not -- was spent in front of the same convenience store I had been lectured next to by the rat-faced man from hours before, watching Ohio State fans go "WOOOOOOOO" and wanting to die. Eventually we decided to walk back to the car and get something to eat at a local chain restaurant; Skeeter finally showed up hours and hours later, drunk and with some new buddies from the bar. It was 10 PM by the time we finally left; by that hour my rage had bubbled and re-bubbled and boiled over and erupted in little spasmodic fits for hours and hours and hours. When we got in the car, Skeeter cracked another beer.

And it is because of this that I can tell you that no matter how mad I get, I will never choke a man to death with his own intestines and then drink warm Bud Light out of his skull.. If it was going to happen, it would have happened. One of the great regrets of my life is going to be not leaving that twat in Columbus, preferably after stealing his wallet and all forms of identification. And his pants.

So, yeah, that's the end of last year.

This year the stakes are simple: send out Mike Hart, Chad Henne, Jake Long, (very probably) Mario Manningham, and (very probably) Lloyd Carr as triumphant victors completing a three act play, or it's Skeeter time. No pressure.

*(Skeeter and FOF being cordial enough to go to a football game in Ohio together was surprising, on reflection.)

Unit By Unit

Quarterback

Rating: 5.

QB	Yr.
Chad Henne	Sr.
Ryan Mallett	Fr.
David Cone	So.*

In the course of three years Chad Henne has gone from wonder boy to whipping boy to quarterback... uh... man. Or something. Quarterback man, quarterback man, doin' the things a quarterback can. I have wandered off topic.

Anyway: as a sophomore, Henne was bad. This was covered in last year's preview, but a brief recap: Henne propped up his numbers by throwing a ton of read-free wide receiver screens and were further supported by a year in which every Big Ten secondary may as well have been Michigan State's; when he went downfield he was highly inaccurate, the primary culprit in Michigan's loss to Wisconsin and possibly those against Minnesota and Notre Dame. Though there were many valid excuses (no real deep threat, horrible offensive line play, no Mike Hart, general bloody-mindedness of the universe in general and Angry Michigan Safety Hating God in particular), this remains an apt summary of his 2005:

Henne's '05 environment was not a good place to do anything but fail. This, by in large, he did.

Things were much different in 2006. A brief tour through Henne's season via the magic of UFR (Ball State and the Rose Bowl did not get UFRed):

• Vandy:
  

  Not particularly good... not particularly Henne's fault, though. He attempted to throw 27 times; approximately 7 of those times were either screens or three-step rhythm throws. 25% of the time when Henne attempted to throw something longer than a screen or short west coast pattern he had Vandy players in his face, usually unblocked after a stunt or a missed blitz pickup. Late in the game, he started expecting and fearing pressure, forgot his mechanics, and started short-hopping balls. It was reminiscent of last year's Notre Dame game ... Henne was fine at first. He was excellent on the opening drive, and at least good through much of the game. The stats don't show it because of the drops.

However, when he lost faith in his protection late he started scrambling unnecessarily, misfiring on simple passes, and generally reverting to the bad old days at the beginning of last season. Notre Dame has no doubt noticed this -- the first hint of it was against them, after all -- and will blitz and stunt extensively, hoping to get him rattled.

CMU:

There wasn't much evidence to go on, but he came through when he was asked to throw. I do have some concerns about his tendency to check down when he has a lot of time, but with the umbrella CMU was putting around the deep receivers it's understandable. He should have some opportunities to go deep against Notre Dame. [boy, was I right about that. -ed.]

Notre Dame:

Manningham's getting all the accolades but his three touchdowns were all inch-perfect throws by Henne and tough ones. (Maybe the first one wasn't so tough, but Henne laid it right in Manningham's chest anyway.) ... yow. Five passes in the negative categories, 16 in the positive ones. Last year Henne's numbers were propped up with a copious number of screens of all varieties, but remove the five he threw in this game (4 CA, 1 IN) and you still get 12-4, a 75% "good" rate. Last year he often hovered around 50%.

Wisconsin:

Another fine performance... At this point I think it's safe to declare Henne's accuracy vastly improved. He still makes the occasional Morelli-esque throw into a Mongol horde of defenders, but he's performing more like the Henne from last year's OSU game than last year's Wisconsin game.

Minnesota:

Commenters questioned whether or not that was the best performance of Henne's career and waited for chart to decide. Chart says? Probably, and it would say "almost definitely" if it could accurately reflect how ridiculous every one of those DOs was and remind you that one of the INs was another bomb.

The delightful thing is: it's not all that different from his performances over the past three weeks. He had a rough game against Vandy, but since then he's been insane. It would be one thing if the Minnesota game was an aberration, but Henne's been laying it in between his WR's numbers for three weeks now. The deep ball has gone from a high-risk maneuver to a staple of the offense.

Michigan State:

Not to be one of those people, but Henne seemed kinda off, right?

Yes. ... he only had six good passes downfield. The sample size isn't exactly vast, but this was Henne's iffiest performance since Vandy.

Penn State:

Obviously, Henne threw a lot more in this game than he has in any other this year, and he did it in a difficult environment against a good defense. It's reasonable to expect the numbers to be a little uglier. And that they are, with a full 15 attempts in the negative categories compared to but 19 in the positive ones. You may remember that at his nadir last year, Henne hovered just below the 50% mark, but that was after we stripped out batted passes and pressure. With four deflected balls -- none of which were truly Henne's fault -- and one Alford-induced scramble removed, Henne's ratio is 19:10. That's not bad at all.

Still, I wish that his accuracy was better. He had Arrington open a few times and either missed him entirely or forced him into a tough catch. He missed an open Butler a few times and winged a sure first down over Breaston's head. He turns two of those inaccurate passes into completions and I'm raving... but his accuracy left a little to be desired.

On the other hand: do you know who he reminds me of right at this minute? John Navarre midway through his junior year. That's when Navarre started doing things like moving up in the pocket to buy himself time and make the correct audibles and look safeties off before firing critical third-down lasers. And that's when you, the fan, sat back and thought "is this really John Navarre? Really really?" The Arrington touchdown and the scrambling Breaston completion are things he would not have done a year ago. He's gone from staring down receivers to teleporting safeties with his eyes. He's making second and third reads with regularity. He's getting there, and fast. The best evidence of this: the one timeout Michigan took on offense was because DeBord never got the call in, and Henne spent the entire game calling two plays and checking at the line in front of 110,000 people who hate him. He's come a long way.

Iowa:

Henne was generally accurate but not inspiring.

One issue: a high number of BRs. Only one was a dangerous throw into coverage -- the interception on the seam route -- but a total of four is high. Henne started the game doing that scramble-into-danger thing when the pocket was holding, essentially sacking himself. That hesitancy has crept into his game in recent weeks; hopefully it's more a function of no Manningham than anything else.

Northwestern:

Par for the course for Henne. Was victimized by three drops, each of which would have turned a punt into at least a field goal attempt in all probability. He's getting better at finding guys on the run, but I still think he's a little too jumpy in the pocket.

Indiana:

A weird game from Henne where he was either doing something really bad (interception, misthrowing a screen, winging it wide to Manningham) or throwing lasers twenty-to-forty yards downfield. The lasers outweighed the errors, say the numbers, and I agree. That's partially an artifact of playing Saturday's red-clad men that claim they are a secondary, but a 62-yard bomb placed delicately between the 1 and the 5 on Breaston's jersey is a 62-yard bomb placed delicately between the 1 and the 5 on Breaston's jersey. Henne was also aided by a couple plays where Indiana rushers didn't come within five yards of him.

(Henne had only 15 attempts, BTW.)

Ohio State:

Smith hardly ever had things filed "PR" because even when get got "PR-ed" he usually got off a short hitch to Gonzalez or Hall or Ginn or whoever because we couldn't cover long enough for unblocked blitzers to be useful. Henne, on the other hand, got swamped by linemen:

Protection: 34
/55. Kraus -4, Ecker -1, Riley -7, Long -2, Mitchell -3, Bihl -1, assorted miscellaneous.

Some of that was just the scheme: Michigan's routes need time to develop. Primary reads on each play are long gainers and our little checkdown routes are slow-developing crosses. Henne spent vastly more time with the ball in his hand than Smith did. Some of that was just bad play. some of that was no doubt Henne-caused, as there were a few more instances of run-around-uselessly theater (though, like Navarre, Henne has started to indicate that he's getting better at this late in his junior season: see the Ecker touchdown). ... Chad Henne was deployed fully for the first time since the Notre Dame game and turned in an impressive performance. He has total command of his reads and routes. His accuracy is greatly improved. His pocket awareness... needs work but is improving.

Sidenote:

How come we never throw over the middle?

What, are you stuck in 2005? This time-tested complaint should be shelved until 2008. Henne is now probing the middle of the field on digs, crosses, seams, and posts with frequency and success. Yes, this is a reminder for the first game of 2007, when we run a really boring offense against a MAC school and everyone freaks out.

(I want credit for that last bit this year, okay?)

Chad Henne
"oh, wide open"
Wisconsin seam
Arm strength stop
40-yard dart
Flag of perfection
Deep read
Badass post
NW Corner
OSU Wheel

A few themes emerge: Henne is at his wicked best when dropping bombs on opponents' heads. His pocket awareness leaves something to be desired. His accuracy was vastly improved. He has full command of the offense. He was not used extensively. The overall picture: very good. Not great.

But it is the rare junior who is "great," especially at the most mentally demanding position on the field. The upside is there. Henne can make all the throws, from wide receiver screens to slants to fifteen-yard outs to posts to parabolic, feathery deep balls that nestle themselves between the 8 and the 6 on Mario Manningham's jersey. It might be nice if he was a little taller, but in all other ways he is a prototypical NFL quarterback. What holds him back is the flash of hesitancy, the indecision in the moment of the chase, the little uncertainties that crop up when an offense's well-laid plans crumble to dust.

You can see the problems he had last year ebb as the impressions roll by, with minor upticks when Henne ran across top defenses in the roiling hatred of State College and Columbus. And... um... Michigan State at home. Every Michigan quarterback has progressed; every senior has been in full command of the offense and let loose to do what he will. What doubts exist here seem to be unreasonable paranoia given past history. Henne should excel.

The backup situation is touchy with Jason Forcier's transfer. Ryan Mallett, the brobdingnagian freshman who can throw a ball through three Nazis, Last Crusade style, is the backup quarterback and heir apparent. Though he's undoubted the greatest quarterback ever ever, should he be pressed into service as a true freshman Michigan's offense will take a serious hit.

Running Back
Rating: 5.

RB	Yr.	FB	Yr.
Mike Hart	Sr.	Mark Moundros	So.*
Brandon Minor	So.	Vince Helmuth	Fr.
Carlos Brown	So.	Quintin Patilla	Fr.*
Avery Horn	Fr.	Andre Criswell	So.*

Mike Hart's various joints and limbs cooperated with the rest of Michigan's miniature dynamo, and how. Last year Michigan rode Hart to an extent almost unparalleled across the country. His 318 carries were exceeded only by those of Rutgers' Ray Rice; PJ Hill and Garrett Wolfe were the only other backs to crack 300. Anyone who seriously trots out Hart durability issues amongst Michigan's concerns this year is living in the 90s, man.

Mike Hart
ND slash
ND ramble
Wind the clock
Langford stiffarm
Typical Minny play
Five yards of awesome
Gold, Jerry, Gold!
PSU grind
Iowa zone
OSU Draw
OSU Iso

On those 318 carries, Hart picked up 1562 yards at 4.9 yards per carry. Though these are respectable numbers, they are by no means great. Part of this is Hart's lack of breakaway speed, but part of it was Michigan's dogged effort to plow virtually all its opponents into bonemeal no matter the situation. Against Wisconsin, Michigan ran
on first down 20 of 26 times. Across the entire year, Michigan ran 57 percent of the time. When you run so often and so predictably, yards per carry become depressed unless you are an NFL first round sort.

Hart isn't. We all know who he is by now. He will get run down by safeties. He is not Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton. But he doesn't fumble, picks his way through line-of-scrimmage traffic like no one else, and is capable of banging out the greatest eight yard runs ever:

He is the engine; the afterburners belong to others.

Brandon Minor
Vandy 25-yarder
State's too easy

The backup situation verged on dangerously thin when Kevin Grady blew out an ACL in spring practice and Carlos Brown first tried out at corner then flirted with a transfer. Brown eventually decided against the transfer, easing worries, then broke his hand. The injury is minor and shouldn't hold him out of more than the opener, but it has hampered his practice time. He'll get a long look as a punt and kick returner, but it'll probably be next year before serious carries are a possibility.

Thus Brandon Minor will be Hart's primary backup. As a freshman, Minor alternated bursts through the secondary with uninspiring three-yard gains. He's a slashing, high-stepping runner with a turn of speed that defies the recruiting analysts, who rated him as a fullback. It remains to be seen whether he can pick his way through traffic like Hart can -- rephrase: it remains to be seen just how much worse he is at picking his way through traffic than Hart is. His freshman year gave some indication that without an obvious hole he just runs up into a linebacker or one of his offensive linemen. Vision can develop -- see Chris Perry -- but he's not necessarily the heir apparent.

Freshman Avery Horn is fast as hell but has no idea what he's doing. If he doesn't get drafted to return kickoffs he'll redshirt.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 5.

WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	TE	Yr.
Mario Manningham	Jr.	Adrian Arrington	Jr.*	Greg Mathews	So.	Mike Massey	Jr.*
Toney Clemons	Fr.	LaTerryal Savoy	So.*	Junior Hemingway	Fr.	Carson Butler	So.*
Zion Babb	Fr.	Martell Webb	Fr.	Andre Criswell (TE)	So.*	Steve Watson	Fr.

Mario Manningham missed five games with a torn meniscus, only caught 38 passes, and finished 36th in receiving yards nationally. But, yeah...

...he's kind of good. Manningham exploded onto the nation's consciousness during the FBD against Notre Dame and continued torching secondaries until felled by injury against Michigan State. Across that four-week span, Manningham caught 19 balls for an incredible 456 yards -- 24 yards per catch -- and eight long touchdowns. Every team in the

Mario Manningham
Quod
Erat
Demonstrandum
Wisconsin ballet
Wisconsin dagger
State's too easy

country has a player they think can be the proverbial deep threat, but Mario Manningham is Chuck Norris in the Marinas Trench. Armed with an arsenal of double moves that can sucker in the weak and strong alike (Wisconsin, beaten for two touchdowns, was the #1 pass efficiency D in the country last year; Manningham duped Buckeye cornerback Malcolm Jenkins into an "oh wide open" during Football Armageddon that Henne overthrew badly), Manningham requires safety attention at all times. Every time you leave him without a bracket you risk a precision smart bomb from Henne. Other than maybe Desean Jackson there is no better receiver in college football.

	With	Without
PPG	36.8	24.4

One brief exemplar of Manningham's significance to the Michigan offense can be found at right; I don't think this qualifies as cherry picking, as among the opponents in the five game "no Manningham" section are Northwestern, Ball State, and Indiana.

Adrian Arrington
Wisconsin seam
Minnesota seam TD
Minnesota post TD
State circus catch
Penn State post #1
Penn State post #2
Tough slant
Fade
Tough Dig
Another tough dig

Meanwhile, Adrian Arrington finally emerged as an onfield contributor after two years of blocking, malfeasance, and injury, and then he went and nearly malfeased his way right off the team. Two solid months of 6AM stairs got him back in Carr's good graces; in him Michigan has the makings of another All Big Ten wide receiver. You can call him a more athletic Jason Avant or a less athletic Braylon Edwards, but the comparison foremost in my mind is David Terrell: good but not great speed, a lanky stride and the ability to go up and get a fade. When Manningham was out, it was Arrington who became the primary threat, catching a couple of tough posts that yielded ten of Michigan's points against Penn State. One was Michigan's only passing touchdown of the day:

He has not shown the big play ability Manningham has (or Terrell had), but did catch a deep seam against Minnesota for a touchdown and is obviously tough enough to go get those posts. As a number two wide receiver he's an excellent option.

Greg Mathews
Iowa scoop
NW waggle
NW post

True sophomore Greg Mathews spent most of last year blocking but also picked up eight catches in sporadic time. A recruit who edged into the end of top 100 lists towards the end of his high school career, his stride, power, and hands are reminiscent of Jason Avant, though that comparison is obviously tenuous at this point given his limited utilization. He will be a possession complement to the deep and intermediate threats.

Behind Mathews there are but freshmen. Toney Clemons, another fringe top 100 guy, has been the most impressive in fall camp and will be the fourth receiver. Enjoy your blocking, kid! Junior Hemingway will also play; Zion Babb will probably redshirt.

Antonio Bass's knee is still severely damaged. He remains on the team but most say that's a technicality and he will be a medical casualty after the year. He will not play.

Carson Butler
CMU waggle
Iowa cross
Iowa tiptoe
Iowa cross #2

At tight end, it's probably wrong to compare a kid who nearly got booted off a football team to Jesus, so lets just call Carson Butler Lazarus. Raw, kind of dense (the kid must have gone offsides a half dozen times last year), and wildly athletic, Butler tantalized during a redshirt freshman year in which he became the team's leading tight end. Then came a wild sequence of events: he was placed on double-secret probation along with Eugene Germany (gone) and Adrian Arrington (back) for undisclosed violations of team rules rumored to be inopportunely timed weed, arrested for playing a role in the St. Patrick's Day Nerd Massacre, kicked off the team because of the SPDNM arrest, acquitted of all charges in the SPDNM, and finally let back on the team a couple weeks ago. He's still deep in the doghouse -- not listed on the initial depth chart -- but should emerge within a few games if we make the potentially large assumption he keeps his head down and joins a church choir or something. So... a quasi-starter with big potential.

The other quasi-starter is redshirt junior Mike Massey, who saw extensive playing time a year ago but didn't do much with it. He was this close to making a couple superb catches, one a wheel route against Wisconsin, the other a potential touchdown against Penn State, but in both cases the ball just eluded his fingertips. He's been talked up in the spring, but doubts still remain about his blocking and overall upside.

Chris McLaurin and Andre Criswell back up Massey and Butler; both looked awful in the spring game. Criswell was shifted from fullback in the spring when Butler got himself in trouble; McLaurin was a linebacker who swapped units last year because of a chronic shoulder injury (... or something; it's not entirely clear). If either sees the field this year, it's probably to block. Freshman Steve Watson is the son of a former Denver Broncos receiver/coach by the same name and should be college ready; he may also see time. Martell Webb, at 6'5", 215, is headed for a redshirt.

Offensive Line
Rating: 4.

LT	Yr.	LG	Yr.	C	Yr.	RG	Yr.	RT	Yr.
Jake Long	Sr.*	Adam Kraus	Sr.*	Justin Boren	So.	Alex Mitchell	Jr.*	Steve Schilling	Fr.*
Mark Ortmann	So.*	Dave Molk	Fr.	David Moosman	Fr.*	Jeremy Cuilla	So.*	Perry Dorrestein	Fr.*
Mark Huyge	Fr.	Tim MacAvoy	So.*	Grant DeBenedictis	So.*	Brett Gallimore	Jr.*	Cory Zirbel	So.*

(note: every Michigan lineman since the beginning of time has redshirted. Just assume "redshirt" in front of all years unless "true" is specifically appended.)

Three starters return to the Michigan line, including the two best players on 2006's adequate, but not great, unit.

Left tackle Jake Long passed on an opportunity to be a top-ten selection in the NFL draft to play his senior year. That should suffice as an indicator of his talent, which is immense. He's the best offensive lineman in the conference and possibly the nation.

Fellow senior Adam Kraus enters his third year as a starter. Though he was prone to the occasional missed read in the zone game, when he was on the right page he was effective. Capable of getting out to the second level and an above-average pass blocker, Kraus is short of great but is probably headed for first-team All Big Ten at year's end.

Sophomore (true sophomore!) Justin Boren is on a stardom track. The first Michigan lineman in forever to forgo a redshirt, Boren started one game a year ago at guard and rotated in several times during the year. Michigan was grooming him for the center spot from day one. Every indicator on him is positive: he was a highly hyped recruit, he was one of the dominant player in that year's Army All-Star game, he saw the field immediately, and he won a starting role as a true sophomore. There might be some issues at first -- Boren has never played center before -- but by midseason he will probably be an upgrade over the departed Mark Bihl.

Alex Mitchell's job came under fire in the fall even before he picked up a minor injury that will hold him out of the Appalachian State game and maybe Oregon as well. Reports have consistently mentioned Mitchell's issues with his weight; some darkly hint at potential motivation issues. At times last year he was overrun, especially on stunts and blitzes that he and Rueben Riley did always handle well. As a first year starter and a sophomore there are some mitigating factors, but there has been a constant undercurrent of discontent with his play and conditioning this offseason. Even healthy he may watch from the sidelines.

Steve Schilling, like Boren, is marked for stardom. Practice-field rumors had him running neck-and-neck with Rueben Riley, a fifth year senior and multiple-year starter (albeit one who often seemed like an out of position guard), the instant he stepped on campus despite running a wing-T in high school and not knowing how to pass block. An ill-timed case of mono knocked him out of contention in 2006 and forced a redshirt, and shoulder surgery caused him to miss spring practice. Despite all that he's beaten out Cory Zirbel and Mark Ortmann for the right tackle job.

The question with Schilling is how fast can he get up and going? All the injury downtime and the wing-T thing could lead to some dodgy moments in pass protection early. If he's shaky during the Oregon and Penn State games, Michigan's offense could sputter in an inopportune fashion.

Key backups on the line: Mark Ortmann, a redshirt sophomore who will be the first tackle on the field if either Long or Schilling goes down. He's supposed to be more of a finesse, pass-blocking type. Jeremy Cuilla is the first option at guard. A junior who's seen a start here and there and had significant snaps when other players go down injured, he has a modicum of experience but no hype. He will replace Mitchell for Appalachian State. Dave Moosman was well-regarded as a center and is probably in line to start next year (Boren would slide out to guard); this year might be a bit early. The backup situation, in general, is not good.

Five Questions and Five Answers

What could possibly go wrong?

A look back at last year's questions is a blast from the horrible, horrible past: does Henne suck ass? Does the offensive line suck ass? Does Breaston suck ass? Are we going to die? If so, how painful will it be? Will the muscles be flayed from our bodies as we watch in helpless agony? Could you describe the pain on the Schmidt scale? Are we talking yellowjacket pain...

2.0 Yellowjacket: Hot and smoky, almost irreverent. Imagine WC Fields extinguishing a cigar on your tongue.

...or is it bullet ant time...

4.0+ Bullet ant: Pure, intense, brilliant pain. Like walking over flaming charcoal with a 3-inch nail in your heel.

...?

I tried to answer these things in a somewhat reassuring manner -- No, sort of, sort of, maybe, probably pretty painful, yeesh no, probably yellowjacket if you pushed me -- but my impression of the fanbase's zeitgeist has flipped 180 degrees from last year. Now nothing at all questions the offense. But... NSFMF!

These are the ways in which the offense could fail to live up to its potential:

• Short yardage remains problematic. Michigan sucked in many ways during the Year of Infinite Pain, but one area in which they most certainly did not was in short yardage. Michigan converted at an almost 90% clip on third and one. Last year that number dropped under 60%. I have covered this before, but to re-iterate: the zone game was a disaster in short yardage situations, sabotaging a dozen or more drives when the slow developing stretch got overwhelmed by penetration. Michigan's out-talent and out-execute approach to football has always been at its best when the odds are stacked in their favor, like on third and not much. The stretch moves us away from that. More on this later.
• Steve Schilling and Justin Boren play like n00bs. This wouldn't be totally surprising, since they are n00bs, but a large portion of the optimism rests on the assumption there will be little dropoff from Mark Bihl and Rueben Riley to either new starter. A portion of it rests on the assumption that the new guys will actually be better than the outgoing seniors by midseason.
• Carson Butler and Adrian Arrington look at someone funny. Both are hanging by threads; without them the situation at receiver is basically Manningham, Massey, and a bunch of unproven sketch. Guys: stay home and play XBox.
• Key injuries. Obvs. Henne, Hart, Long, and Manningham cannot be replaced.
• Michigan gets cocky. More on this later.
• Henne remains very good, but does not improve. Also more on this later.

Will Michigan t
ake full advantage of its weapons?

AKA "Michigan gets cocky." I hate that this has to be asked, but it does. Michigan had very little in the way of creative, attacking offense except against Notre Dame and Ohio State. (I believe they would like to have been creative and attacking against USC but Michigan's inability to block anyone prevented that. Shotgun grumbing goes here.) This was most bothersome during the Wisconsin game, when Michigan ran on first down 80% of the time and 74% of the time before the game was salted away. Michigan could not have gone into that game with the idea they would plow over the Badgers, so that looks like a conscious decision to sacrifice effectiveness for safety.

For the most part I was fine with this. Michigan was in a unique situation last year because of their defense, which was so dominant it made sense to trade points for risk. (And when their defense was not dominant Michigan was obviously in full Scoring Offense mode, even if that whole blocking thing prevented the actual scoring against USC.) Against most teams Michigan was simply not going to lose unless there was somewhere between one to three disastrous turnovers; limit those and limit your ability to lose. This is the same strategy Michigan rode to the 1997 national title, and the same one Jim Tressel uses with great success when his quarterback is not a Heisman winner. It makes sense when you have a slavering, vicious defense.

It does not make sense when you do not, and Michigan looks like it won't this year. I don't think the defense is going to be 2005-level bad, but it won't be the sort of thing where a team can get the ball back down seven late and I feel no panic whatsoever. A one score lead is no longer a large one except in certain special years; hopefully Michigan won't coach like this is one of them.

So... I can't answer this. I think Michigan's conservative tendencies both exist and are overstated; I think Carr has become more aggressive in recent years; I fear he will coach this year like he has last year's defense.

Can we fix short yardage?

I don't know. I do know that every time Michigan runs a stretch from a three-wide on third and one this year, God will kill a kitten. Also I will swear so fiercely that evil-looking little imps will spontaneously generate and flit away, probably to play cornerback for Purdue. I'm pessimistic this will change because it seems like such a spectacularly stubborn and stupid approach to third and one. It's not like it takes an offseason to review and fix the problem; it was obvious and something I was complaining about it as early as the Notre Dame game.

And yet they were still pulling out the Third-And-Punt maneuver during the Ohio State game. It seems that if they thought this was a problem they would have picked up on it earlier. They will try to execute better. They might with an extra year of experience, but chances are it will be average at best, especially with two new fullbacks, no Grady, and iffy-blocking tight ends.

(On the assumption some actual journalists read this thing... the Daily guys must, at least: could someone ask about this? Here is the question: Are you concerned that third and one conversion dropped 30 percentage points last year and does that have any connection to the zone running game? Do you plan on incorporating more isos in these situations? If not, why do you hate kittens? It's no "What do you make of your schedule that features eight home games?" but it might be worth asking.)

Will Henne make another leap?

He was very good a year ago, and even if he plateaus Michigan's offense should be better with development from the line, a full season from Manningham, and the continued improvement of the players around him. But there were moments in most games that Henne showed some flaws, either by winging balls a la 2005 or, more often, reacting to pressure poorly. If he reduces these instances he can be great.

Will he? Initial returns are good. When he visited the Elite 11 Camp as a counselor he drew praise from everyone who stopped by as the guy there. When rumblings come from within the bowels of Fort Schembechler they indicate Henne has stepped up a further notch. The validity of those rumors will probably mean the difference between a nice BCS bowl and a national championship game appearance (in which we'll get dismantled by USC, natch). Since his problems seem to resided chiefly in the realm of the mental -- missed reads, some timing issues, pocket awareness -- a smooth natural progression is likely. The inaccuracy went way down a year ago, so whatever mechanics issues he had seem repaired. Henne should take another step forward.

Probably.

And adding it all up, you get...?

If there is ever going to be a year Michigan spends headbutting foes by final scores of 42-10, this is going to be it. I suppose depth could be better all over the place, but Michigan has a top five quarterback, top five running back, top five wide receiver, and top five left tackle. Carson Butler and Adrian Arrington are both outstanding targets. The only things to fret over even a little are fullback and the right side of the offensive line, which features a returning starter (once Mitchell gets back, which is apparently for Oregon) and the two most hyped offensive line recruits since Jake Long.

I think it will be a little disappointing in games here and there. Early games against Oregon and Penn State worry -- though I don't have a handle on Oregon's defense yet -- as the new offensive linemen could self-destruct frequently enough to severely limit Michigan's effectiveness. One small comfort: Penn State's defensive line is about as green as the Boren/Mitchell/Schilling trio and projected DT starter Abe Koroma is likely to miss the game.

But even with those concerns I go back to that little box in the wide receivers category that showed production with and without Manningham. The "with" Manningham number, a seven game stretch featuring three of the top twenty scoring defenses nationwide: 36.8, which would have been good for fifth in the country last year. That's a realistic goal. I believe! Praise-ah his name-ah! Yes-ah!

Stupid Predictions

• Brandon Minor gets 20% of the available carries.
• Alex Mitchell manages to fend off challengers for his job.
• Henne is invited to New York for the Heisman thingy, but does not win.
• Massey spends most of the year in front of Butler on the depth chart but Butler ends up with more catches and is the defacto starter by Wisconsin.
• Manningham: 1340, 15 TD.
• Michigan is 15th in total offense; 12th in scoring.

The Story

Ding dong, Troy Smith is dead. Church bells should peal across the state the first time Todd Boeckman throws an interception or completes like 50% of his passes or like blows a game like whoah.

Also dead are Pittman, Ginn, Gonzalez, and a couple offensive linemen, leaving the Buckeyes bereft of the offense that steamrolled the country until its inexplicable -- and highly, highly annoying -- collapse in the Not Fiesta Bowl which instantly validated for all time to everyone south of the Mason-Dixon line that their college football was WOOOO COMPLETELY EFFIN AWESOME YO!!! Congratulations! Now your decrepit school systems have been rendered irrelevant! Please rejoice in this marker of regional dominance and forget that we burned a swath of destruction from Atlanta to the coast, you traitorous confederate bastards. If it wasn't for us dragging your asses back into the Union you would be the Sudan right now. (The Sudan's in Africa. Which is across an ocean. Which is a large body of water.)

What? Where am I? Oh. Ohio State.

Anyway, the Buckeyes took a one-year detour on the spread express route to take advantage of that whole Heisman winner thing, but now figure to return to the Ohio State of (slightly) old. They will pound the ball on offense, stuff your face on defense, and usually win 17-9. They'll have infuriatingly great kicking. They'll probably play in a nice bowl game. Etc.

Problems do loom, however: the line is young and flimsy at DT. The secondary is distressingly thin and young, and the offensive line might still be looking for Jarvis Moss. Everyone expects a step back except SEC fans, who can't imagine Ohio State getting any worse.

Offense

Last Year

2005	2006
Passing
52	45
Pass Eff
6	8
Rushing
24	26
Total
32	26
Scoring
26	8
Sacks
21	12

JESUS CHRIST. MAKE IT STOP MAKE IT STOP MAKE IT STOP. PLEASE.

(Not particularly relevant since every offensive skill starter save completely ignored TE Rory Nichol is gone, along with two OL starters. Thankfully.)

Quarterback

Rating: 2. Despite being a nearly all-conquering juggernaut in the Tressel Era, one area in which Ohio State struggled of late is quarterback recruiting. There are three on the roster:

• Redshirt junior Todd Boeckman, the presumed starter. Boeckman was an unremarkable three-star in 2003 (he also grayshirted) whose other offers were Pitt and Maryland.
• Redshirt sophomore Robby Schoenhoft. The highest rated quarterback on the Buckeye roster, Schoenhoft was a four star who picked OSU over Michigan. But... wow. Schoenhoft is the oddest four star with M/OSU offers ever. How often do you see a guy who's a pocket passer complete 37% of his attempts and get attention from anyone other than Buffalo? The general opinion on Schoenhoft is that he's a kid with a nice arm who shows well at combines but isn't an actual quarterback.
• Redshirt freshman Antonio Henton, a dual-threat three-star from Georgia with other offers from Louisville, Illinois, and Maryland

Recruiting rankings are not flawless, but that's a remarkable paucity of talent for a program as high profile as Ohio State.

There was no Weis E. Coyote quarterback subterfuge this offseason at Ohio State: it was obvious Todd Boeckman would be the starter from the moment the Not Fiesta Bowl ended and he is indeed the starter. He is large, strong armed, and utterly green; no one has seen him in live action since high school eons ago. Since that goes for everyone on the roster, predicting the outcome here is difficult. A quick check of all the good things each did in the spring game...

...reveals Schoenhoft to have a mean three-yard stop, Henton a mean quarterback scramble, and Boeckman a decent deep ball. At least one decent deep ball. The overall numbers weren't pretty:

Boeckman completed 6 of 14 passes for 103 yards. Playing for both teams, Schoenhoft was a combined 7-for-18 for 83 yards and Henton was 8-for-16 for 45 yards.

Henton also threw three interceptions; Boeckman fumbled once.

None of these guys is going to be Troy Smith. The hope is for adequacy here. Upside is Craig Krenzel; downside is Steve Bellisari.

Tailback & Fullback

Rating: 5. Until Chris "Beanie" Wells -- and that's the last time "Beanie" gets mentioned in this preview -- spun free of what should have been a Shawn Crable TFL and zipped through the Michigan secondary en route to the first of two backbreaking Ohio State touchdown runs, his freshman season was mostly an exercise in unforced fumbles and romps over hopelessly overmatched run defenses. It's hard to extrapolate from a freshman year in which Wells was a backup who got most of his carries against Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, and the like. He is unlikely to average 5.5 yards per carry as the primary threat, especially without Smith, Ginn, and Gonzalez drawing all sorts of attention.

That said, if you believe in recruiting rankings you are forced to believe in Wells, Rivals' #1 recruit in the country at any position in 2005. He is huge and fast and has some dainty cutting ability. At the very least his freshman season proved him to have more ability than a David Underwood, who was huge and fast and so top heavy a slight breeze would knock him over; that worst case scenario averted we have a narrow range of ability with Tony Hunt at the bottom and Eddie George at the top. Wells is going to be very good, and this year.

There do exist two concerns: the aforementioned fumbling, which can be chalked up to small sample size now but would blossom into a full-fledged issue should it continue into 2007, and the potential for Wells' pounding style to expose him to injury. He's a violent, smashing runner and those guys are always prone to injuries both nagging and severe. Adrian Peterson, a similar (though hopefully much better) player, had a career marred by injury; Wells has a higher risk of the same than most backs.

Another Wells, Maurice, is the backup. Maurice is the platonic opposite of Chris, a dreadlocked scatback from Florida who's thoroughly disappointed so far in his career. He was a highly touted recruit in his own right and has reportedly impressed throughout the offseason, so he may be a decent backup option. Freshman Brandon Saine is very, very fast and wi
ll probably see carries here and there.

The fullbacks are veteran and were effective when deployed a year ago; one will emerge as a battering ram for Wells.

Wide Receiver & Tight Ends

Rating: 3. This position group, so deep a year ago, has been stripped down to the bare bones. Two Brians, Hartline and Robiskie, return after encouraging 2006s. Past that there is little experience, and most of that is on its way to disappointing. A true freshman is probably the third wideout.

Both Brians are similar players, loping striders with good but not Ginn speed, fairly reliable hands, and a modicum of route-running ability. Both were three star recruits in 2005; Hartline redshirted but Robiskie did not. One difference: Robiskie's offer list belied his ranking -- aside from OSU he also had Miami and Florida offers -- while Hartline's other suitors were Iowa and Michigan State. Robiskie was more heavily deployed last year with 29 catches for 383 yards and five touchdowns. One of those touchdowns, of course, was this one:

Behind the two starters is an array of question marks. Albert Dukes and Devon Lyons are veterans who have been passed over by first the Brians and now apparently three-star true freshman Dane Sanzenbacher, an Ohio State in-state camp offer who has impressed in the fall. Michigan has always done very well with these guys and Sanzenbacher's immediate leap into the two-deep bodes well for his future, but maybe not so well for Ohio State's present. There's also sophomore Ray Small, who lives up to his name at 5'9"-ish. He's a little nippy guy who will see time as a screen and short-YAC-friendly route runner; if Ohio State continues deploying its "Shotginn" set he'll be the one in the triple threat position replacing Ginn. He had eight catches a year ago.

Again, this should be a comedown from last year. Robiskie's shown a knack for getting open deep and Hartline's shown flashes of being a solid possession-plus type in the mold of Gonzalez, but neither can reasonably be expected to replace the production of the departed NFL first-rounders. They'll probably be good enough but uninspiring.

Offensive Line

Rating: 4. Three starters return to a line that seemed like one of the best in the country until Jarvis Moss and the rest of the Florida defensive line decided that they liked their HEISEMENS sacked one billion times. No one saw the line's total collapse coming, and it's hard to know what to make of it in the aftermath.

On recruiting hype and returning starts alone, the line should be pretty good. Alex Boone was a five star who leapt into the starting lineup as a true freshman; enormous Steve Rehring (6'8"! 345!) was a fine starter as a sophomore; senior Kirk Barton has been a fixture on the Ohio State offensive line for seemingly a decade. There are two new starters but in low-danger areas on the interior. But: Rehring may lose his job to redshirt freshman Brian Browning, and Ohio State's recruited sparsely on the offensive line so if either of new starters Jim Cordle and Ben Person can't hack it there are few options behind them. And there was that wholesale collapse against Florida.

What to pick? I can offer little here, especially with the presumed move to an entirely different sort of offense. The "4" above is for returning tackles who should be excellent players and a general rule of thumb to give Ohio State the benefit of the doubt when things are in question, but there's no conviction behind it.

Defense

Last Year

2005	2006
Passing
43	30
Pass Eff
30	10
Rushing
1	15
Total
5	12
Scoring
5	5
Sacks
5	12

It was looking like Ohio State had impossibly reloaded a year after losing nine starters off a truly badass defense up until Michigan rolled into town and ripped off a 80 yard opening touchdown drive. And from there it was not so good: Michigan put up 39 points and Florida 41. But was it so bad? The Michigan score was heavily aided by three Ohio State turnovers and one dubious fourth-down pass interference call. Florida didn't even crack 400 yards total offense, instead rolling up its points on short field after short field as the Ohio State offense sputtered to 82 total yards. Perhaps it wasn't, in fact, so bad.

The flip side of that, however, is to wonder if it was all that good in the first place. Though no one scored on Ohio State at all, chances are many teams could have turned in a performance like this when Colt McCoy's second start and Anthony Morelli's first were the toughest tests on the docket. (Drew Tate? Maybe, but by that point Tate was busy throwing horrible interceptions as Iowa clattered to a 2-6 conference record.) Helped by a bevy of opponent turnovers and the offense's ability to turn any offense one dimensional by midway into the second quarter, Ohio State's defense found itself in a highly advantageous position for most of last year. I don't believe it was nearly as good as the numbers to the right indicate. This opposed to the 2005 defense, which I lived in constant fear of.

Defensive Line

Rating: 3. Sophomore defensive tackle Doug Worthington is

1. starting
2. 6'7", and
3. 271 pounds.

I love this. Visions of Pat Massey moonwalking downfield dip and flutter, tantalizing with visions of gashing Mike Hart runs. Also helpful in my little fantasies are the rest of the Buckeye defensive tackles, who are young and green. Sophomore Todd Denlinger and redshirt freshman Dexter Larimore are battling for the starting spot next to Worthington; junior Nader Abdallah is finally in shape and on the two deep but has seen no field time. None of these guys have, actually: last year senior Joel Penton backed up the two starters; Denlinger is the top returning tackler with four. When evaluating new talent at Ohio State you have to offer up a high initial baseline, but this set of defensive tackles is going to be little better than that baseline. Things could actually be bad here.

At end, there is Vernon Gholston (@ right). As a sophomore he racked up 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss amongst 49 tackles. He's the best defensive end in the conference and a potential All-American. There were some questions about Gholston's responsibility in the run game early last year, but he answered those with aplomb. He's the best player on the Buckeye defense. Also he has arms that are less a gun show and more a nuclear missile silo. Also also: can we test that guy for 'roids? I'm just sayin'.

Opposite Gholston a few highly touted recruits are in a fierce battle to start. Junior Lawrence Wilson currently has the edge on sophomore Robert Rose and junior Alex Barrow. Given the recruiting rankings of these guys -- Rose was a five star, albeit a late riser that may have been a little bit of an overreaction based on a sin
gle impressive Army game outing -- and their numbers, one should work out and be adequate (and adequate for Ohio State's purposes, not Purdue's), if not better.

Linebackers

Rating: 4. A favorite MGoBlog hobbyhorse is James Laurinaitis and how goddamn overrated he is; anyone who's read this space since last year's Ohio State game can probably sing along with what follows. He was hesitant and awful in his first real test against Texas, thought much of what ailed him then can be fixed by experience. Against Iowa, he was quiet. When Michigan came calling and actually had the athletes to get out past the OSU DTs and get a blocker on Laurnaitis, he washed out every time. Hart finished with 140-some yards and three touchdowns. I might as well dig up my summary of the guy from last year's All Big Ten team because I think the exact same thing:

My position on Laurinaitis and his magic, leather-magnetized hands has been made clear: dude is way overrated and belongs nowhere near the Butkus finalist list or the All-American teams he'll no doubt feature on. I blame two people: Troy Smith and Brent Musberger. Smith is the primary motor for Ohio State's #1 ranking and Musberger's intolerable boosterism of him during the Texas game, Iowa game, and every other game was repeated so often that it became true in the minds of the brainwashed masses.

...but he does have his good points. He is fast, able in zone drops -- to get Drew Tate to throw the ball right at you you have to be in good position -- and a good blitzer. If he's kept clean he will fill and tackle ably. He's not bad by any stretch of the imagination and... sigh... deserves a place on this team. But on the second team, dammit, until he defeats a block. Any block.

All that said: I did put him on the second team as a sophomore and he projects better as a junior. Depending on how much he improves he could warrant the breathless Musbergerisms he receives; I still would like to see it before believing it. My theory on Laurinaitis is that he's great in space but easy to block and my theory on the OSU DTs is adequacy at best -- no double-teams demanded here -- so I am compelled to predict a significant step backwards in Ohio State's run defense. Like... not awful or anything, but thorough averageness is a possibility.

On the strongside, Marcus Freeman returns. A highly touted recruit who made a smooth transition to start as a redshirt sophomore, he projects well. One concern: despite being Ohio State's second leading tackler, Freeman didn't make much in the way of plays with only 2.5 TFL and one sack. Six pass breakups and two interceptions are impressive, though -- zone drops are a strength for these linebackers. He will be somewhere between good and very good.

Graduated senior Steve Kerr was a liability last year and won't be missed at all. Senior JUCO transfer Larry Grant is the starter; sophomore Ross Homan will also press for time. I am skeptical about both these players given their inability to displace Kerr in a season of thorough blah from the former Indiana transfer. Both have an obvious excuse as guys in their first year at Ohio State but, like Michigan, when Ohio State feels compelled to bring in a JUCO anywhere it signals a deep unease about a particular position. The weakside is likely to remain a problem.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 4. Malcolm Jenkins is the star of a secondary short on both depth and experience; there is a not-insignificant chance this group ends up resembling last year's Michigan unit that proved itself ineffective despite the presence of an NFL first-rounder.

There aren't many problems with Jenkins. I still prefer Ikegwuonu and King, as Jenkins occasionally gets excessively aggressive and lets receivers behind him, but the gap is not wide. Last year he was fortunate opposing quarterbacks overshot his man when this happened. But the flip side of that aggression is a hellish battle for many opposition receivers. Jenkins is a jam artist with heavy hands, better than anyone in the conference at fighting a third down slant tooth and nail.

So, yeah, but then... um. The rest of the secondary has questions. Corner is frighteningly thin. Andre Amos is out for the year with an injury, leaving sophomore Donald Washington, the nickelback a year ago behind former walkon Antonio Smith, as the other starter. Washington was okay as a freshman but by no means a star. Adrian Arrington had his way with him a few times. Past that: nothing with a snap. There is redshirt freshman Chimdi Chekwa, a middling recruit, and true freshman Eugene Clifford. Clifford was the crown jewel of last year's recruiting class but if he's on the two-deep as a true freshman at cornerback I believe that bodes extremely unwell for the Bucks. Clifford is big, very big -- 6'2", nearly 200 pounds -- and was universally regarded a safety by the recruiting gurus.

The other options in the nickel are a fourth year junior who's seen no time except on special teams and a safety, Tyler Moeller, who's a converted linebacker(!). There's every indication that spread teams will find someone to pick on.

At safety, Jamario "Toast" O'Neal, he of the hilarious five star ranking, has lost his job to Kurt Coleman, a sophomore Ohio State fans are high on. The other safety is Anderson Russell, returning after an ACL tear that cost him his 2006. He is also a sophomore and is without a doubt the most unexpected starter on this Ohio State team. A two-star recruit from Georgia with other offers from Duke(!) and Furman(!!!) -- reviewing his old recruiting articles is hilarious: "Anderson enjoyed Duke visit" as if anyone on the planet has ever gotten an offer from Ohio State and picked Duke -- not only got offered by the Bucks but was a starter as a redshirt freshman until tearing his ACL against Iowa. He returns for a sophomore season as the starter. So pick your path here: nothing recruit or insta-starter; the jury is out given the paucity of passing offenses Russell went up against last year.

Special Teams

Rating: 4. I hate Ohio State and their never ending factory of superb kickers. Last year's starter was 8 for 11 and lost his job to a 28-year-old Australian who passed up a rugby contract -- oi! -- to play at Ohio State. I do take some small solace in this shakiness...

Neither kicker looked great in Wednesday's kick scrimmage, Pretorius 5-of-10 unofficially and Pettrey 7-of-13, but after a year of feeling like he was the Buckeyes' most consistent kicker in practice, Pretorius seemingly won the job five days ago in Saturday's jersey scrimmage.

...but not much. There's enough here to project Buckeye kicking to be something less than great -- Mike "Ted" Nugent would never get replaced -- but they've still got two adequate guys, which is two more than Michigan has at the moment.

Punting was virtually irrelevant for Ohio State last year, at least until the Not Fiesta Bowl, -- there is no Buckeye punter listed amongst the NCAA statistical leader because you need to average 3.6 per game -- but junior AJ Trapasso returns after averaging 40.6 yards per kick, landing 17 inside the 20 with only
four touchbacks. Only about a quarter of his kicks were returned. He was a major reason Ohio State was 13th in net punting. He's one of the country's best.

OSU's returners are in the NFL; a step back from Ginn is highly probable.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

2006	Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +	Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
0.69 (13th)	21	6	2.92 (12th)	6	12	1.46 (24th)

Buoyed by the leather magnets in James Laurinaitis' gloves, Ohio State was hugely positive in this category a year ago and should take a major step back. Boeckman has a lot of practice experience but is not going to be a Heisman winner; OSU's interceptions should go up significantly. Also, Wells has given indication he's something of a fumbler. I expect this number to be slightly negative at the end of the year; it will be a major step back.

Position Switch Starters

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

Worthington was a defensive end and now starts at tackle. I think this bodes unwell.

Dumbest Thing In CFN Preview

Just because.

Best Defensive Player: Junior LB James Laurinaitis. What does Laurinaitis possibly do for an encore after leading the Buckeyes in tackles and interceptions a year ago, en route to becoming the first true sophomore to win the Nagurski Award? A physical beast in run defense, he's also stellar in underneath pass coverage, making him a natural at creating takeaways.

Obvs I was going to go for this.

Flickr Says...

What I would give for a microwave large enough to put this in.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

Undefeated is probably out of the question, but 11-1 isn't. OSU picked a good year to make Washington the primary OOC foe.

Worst Case

Well... there isn't much to threaten until Penn State rolls into town in Week 8. I guess it's possible Purdue could pose some sort of threat, but visions of Wells smushing Boiler defenders into the ground are vivid. But they do return many players and could make a leap. Also: they are well suited to take advantage of a potentially shallow secondary. Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all eminently losable, and maybe an uncharacteristic game gets blown by some quarterback errors, but 8-4 is about the worst scenario I can concoct.

Final Verdict

I think the above will seem unnecessarily negative given the final output down here, but the tendency in these previews is to quarrel with the conventional wisdom when it needs quarreling with, and much of the conventional wisdom about last year's Ohio State defense was, in my opinion, wrong. Thus the words spent arguing that James Laurinaitis is only the third best middle linebacker in the conference. Still, while I don't expect this year's Ohio State defense to be actually bad per se it does seem a clear step down from the last couple years. Defensive tackle is a major concern, as is depth in the secondary and experience at safety. Ohio State plans to play a lot of freshman on defense this year and it's not by choice.

Everyone expects Tressell to pull in his horns and go with the traditional smash mouth Tresselball offense, and so does this preview. Given the available personnel that's what makes sense. I think this is likely to recur:

Tressel Ball in Big Games, '02 vs. '06

	2002	2006
Pts./Game	16.2	29.5
Avg. MOV	8.0	15.8
Runs/Game	44.0	34.3
Yds./Carry	3.5	4.6
Passes/Game	16.6	28.5
Yds./Pass	8.2	7.7
Run:Pass %	72.4	54.4

2002 Games: Washington State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan
2006 Games: Texas, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan

The difference between 2002 and this year will be the lack of unfathomable luck and a flimsier defense.

<
/tr>

OOC
9/1	Youngstown State	Functional DNP
9/8	Akron	Functional DNP
9/15	@ Washington	(very) Probable Win
10/13	Kent State	Functional DNP
Conference
9/22	Northwestern	Auto-win
9/29	@ Minnesota	Auto-win
10/6	@ Purdue	Tossup
10/20	Michigan State	Auto-win
10/27	@ Penn State	Tossup
11/3	Wisconsin	Tossup
11/10	Illlinois	Probable win
11/17	@ Michigan	Probable loss
Absent:	Iowa, Indiana

Oh, the infinite hubris in that "probable loss." But, seriously this is what I think is true so there you go. One of these days Ann Arbor Torch And Pitchfork customers will come for me, I'm sure. Ohio State starts off 7-1, splits versus PSU and Wisconsin, and comes to Ann Arbor with the Big Ten title on the line. In the aftermath, I don't jump off U Towers. 9-3.... verging on 10-2.