August 2007

The Story

You have to give it up for Wisconsin, a program with the momentum of a planet. Not even the retirement of the program patriarch could change the Badgers' identity as the preeminent purveyor of old school three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust football. PJ Hill ran, and ran, and ran, and ran. The defense lined up and smacked running backs into the ground. If you missed the whole retirement thing and squinted real hard you might have convinced yourself that Barry Alvarez was still stalking the sidelines, albeit after some major plastic surgery.

Now the great red hope for those tired of last year's reestablished Michigan-Ohio State hegemony, Wisconsin enters the year on a tidal wave of expectation after returning a bevy of starters from a 12-1 2006 campaign. Nine starters return on offense, seven or eight on defense depending on exactly who you tag as a starter. The Badgers might have the best tight end in the country, the best cornerback in the country, and the fattest tailback in the country. If Wisconsin's ever going to break through and seriously contend for a national title, this would be the year. (Or it might be next year when lots and lots of starters return again.)

Here come the buts: wretched nonconference schedule. Missed Ohio State in-conference. Outgained nearly two-to-one in narrow Citrus Bowl victory over quarterback-free Arkansas. Fared decently but less than spectacularly against Michigan. Loses anchor left tackle Joe Thomas and three-year starting quarterback Joe Stocco, plus All Big Ten-ish safety Roderick Rogers and the top two tacklers from last year's defense. Starting defensive end Jamal Cooper hanging by a thread. Coach's haircut makes him look like a meathead (or Walter Sobchak...

... he's not wrong about the kickoff thing or the Ikegwuonu thing, he's just an asshole.). And so on and so forth.

In the worlds of Donald Rumsfeld, Wisconsin is something of a known-unknown after last year; this year they will define themselves as a true challenger to the Big Two or they will settle into their usual Wisconsin spot in Florida. But which will it be?

Offense

Last Year

I propose that Wisconsin's 2006 offense wasn't actually very good despite the numbers at right. This is a difficult proposition even after removing the Charmin-soft nonconference schedule: Wisconsin finished second only to the Ohio State juggernaut in both scoring and yardage in conference games. While missing said juggernaut helps those numbers that alone is not nearly enough to explain away the numbers and declare the UW offense meh.

But there is a hypothesis: Wisconsin's offense resembled Texas Tech's in no way whatsoever save a tendency to blow away weak teams in spectacular fashion and clatter to a near-halt against top opposition. When Wisconsin went up against the many dire defenses in conference it put a thrashing on them: 52 points and 539 yards against Indiana. 41 and 527 against Northwestern. 48 and 401 against Minnesota. Only 24 points but 442 yards versus Purdue. The Badgers culled the young and weak from the herd with ruthless abandon.

Against the strong, however, matters were different:

These teams gave up an average of 290 yards per game, and that number includes everyone's functional DNPs against wack nonconference schedules. Wisconsin fell short of this by 14 yards and only got that close because Michigan was exceptionally generous once it got up 17 midway through the fourth. Against good defenses, Wisconsin was a below average offense. Note that the point here isn't something obvious like "hey, they didn't score much against teams no one scored on." Rather, it's this: they moved the ball even less than you would expect against teams of this caliber.

Quarterback

Rating: 2. It's time to play pick the pass offense:

PASS OFFENSE       G   Att  Cmp Int  Pct.  Yds  Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------
TEAM A...........  8   204  129   4  63.2 1799  8.8 14 224.9
TEAM B...........  8   209  134   5  64.1 1646  7.9 21 205.8
TEAM C...........  8   200  127   5  63.5 1585  7.9 14 198.1

Would you believe that one of these teams is Wisconsin? Surely you must be looking at Team C now, admirably efficient but clearly in third place. No. That's Michigan. And the team with all the touchdowns is Ohio State. Team A -- possessor of the best YPA in the conference by nearly a full yard -- is Wisconsin. All this despite having mediocre receivers and (as we will see) a terrible offensive line. John Stocco was quietly one of the top quarterbacks in the conference for the past two years; his departure will be felt keenly.

Fifth-year senior Tyler Donovan has won the job in Stocco's stead. Until late last year, Donovan was regarded as a career backup; Kansas State transfer Allan Everidge was the heavy favorite for the job. But when Stocco went down with an injury, Donovan led the Badgers to a win over Iowa and looked impressive doing it, going 17 of 24 for 228 yards and two touchdowns. (He also started and won a game against Buffalo, but that has a predictive value of zero.) Strong-ish performances in spring and fall won him the job. But what to expect?

One: more mobility. Donovan's always been something of a scrambler, more along the lines of a Brooks Bollinger than a John Stocco. Two: less overall goodness. Luke Winn's postcard from Wisconsin camp provides a rare take on fall practices not offered by a coach with ulterior motives:

...neither QB -- even with the Badgers' veteran receiving corps at his disposal -- is likely to match Stocco's pleasantly surprisin
g numbers from '06. Both are average passers who still seemed mistake-prone in practice.

One man's opinion of one practice, yes, but basically all we have to go one save Donovan's performance against an awful Hawkeye secondary last year. Chances are there's a significant step back from John Stocco's quiet assassination.

Tailback & Fullback

Rating: 3. A major reason Wisconsin's offense was so wildly variable based on quality of opposition was tailback PJ Hill, who is a fat man in the mold of Ron Dayne. Let him get going in a straight line and he's a terror; foul his intended hole and he is done. If you can do the latter without bringing up a safety the Badger offense wilts since it relies so heavily on the run game to set up the deep ball. This is the hypothesis, anyway.

Unfortunately, there is precious little to test this against. Michigan crushed him but that's not a fair comparison. Aside from a couple spread-n-shred runs Ohio State managed, no one moved the ball on the ground versus Michigan even a little bit. Illinois would be interesting, but Hill missed a large portion of that game injured (he did get off to a good start with 50 yards on 12 carries). Penn State's #7 ranked rush defense, as noted in the Penn State preview, masked an average unit that had a tough time stopping any mildly prolific tailback.

We do have the Arkansas game. The Hogs were good but by no means great against the run, 33rd, and crushed Hill. He finished with 36 yards on 19 carries, 1.9 per. Wisconsin managed 17 points on just over 200 yards. Scanty evidence, sure, and the 148 yards against Penn State is a point in his favor. But I remain highly skeptical of Hill's ability to make his own yards.

The backup situation is all right. Sophomore Lance Smith was reinstated after some offseason stiletto-heel-stealing; incoming freshman John Clay just scraped by the NCAA Clearinghouse and will suit up behind the two returners.

Wide Receiver & Tight Ends

Rating: 4. Boy, does Wisconsin have some tight ends. Not only did converted linebacker Travis Beckum (above) finish the year as Wisconsin's leading receiver with 61 catches for over 900 yards, but backup/co-starter Andy Crooks picked up another 19 receptions of his own. (No word if all of them were those infuriating TE screens Michigan can't seem to stop.) Both return; Beckum is the leading candidate for the Mackey award this year. Question: can Beckum block? I note that despite his enormous year, he missed out on not only first team Big Ten -- which understandably went to Matt Spaeth -- but second team (Scott Chandler?!). Possibilities: crotchety coaches just voted for the senior, or crotchety coaches didn't care for all of Beckum's "catches" and "yards" and "obvious ability to kick ass" because he's a purse-swinger in the run game. It's whatever, really. Beckum's still real good.

At wide receiver, Wisconsin returns Luke Swan and Paul Hubbard, both of whom are rangy types with excellent YPC averages in Wisconsin's bomb-heavy pass offense. Each caught around 35 balls last year and gained around 600 yards. No possession receivers, these -- that role is Beckum's. Swan the better player. He's white and must only remind me of white guys, so he's reminiscent of recent Minnesota departure Logan Payne: smoothly fast but stiff, not a cut-cut-cut sort. Hubbard is a wildly frustrating player prone to killer drops but has decent speed and can go up and get balls. Both are large and experienced; neither is threatening on the level of Lee Evans or Chris Chambers.

Offensive Line

Rating: 3. Everyone returns except that left tackle guy, and I'm still trying to figure out what I think about that. Even if you believe last year's line was a major reason for PJ Hill's success, their performance in pass protection left much to be desired. Despite throwing only 331 times -- Wisconsin ran on 62% of its plays from scrimmage -- Wisconsin was 80th in sacks allowed.

Any Michigan fan remembers various Michigan defenders tearing into John Stocco whenever he attempted a pass. Only the Penn State matched it for sheer vicious bloodsport. Aside from an eleven-yard opening run and a blown coverage that gave Wisconsin its only touchdown of the day, Wisconsin could do nothing until garbage time because it couldn't block Michigan's defensive line. Michigan ended up with four sacks and plenty of quarterback hurries. Much the same story unfolded against Arkansas. The Razorbacks sacked Stocco six times, crushed the run game, and were unfortunate to lose. Although things were better for Hill against Penn State, Stocco still went down four times. Whenever the Wisconsin line came up against a team remotely capable of getting to the quarterback, they failed. And that was with Joe Thomas, a guy who gave up one sack the entire year.

So... yeah. Questions are more extensive than you might imagine given the returning starters. Everyone just expects Wisconsin to have a great line year in and year out, but that was not the case in 2006 and is no guarantee in 2007, especially since Thomas is being replaced by a redshirt freshman, Gabe Carimi. The indicators on his talent are pretty good: he forced moderately hyped sophomore Jake Bscherer to right tackle, where he's the backup, and beat out a fifth-year senior. But any redshirt freshman is going to be a major drop from Joe Thomas.

The rest of the line, then, is going to have to improve immensely to reach competence, and no one on the planet can tell you if this is going to happen. Given that three of the returning starters were sophomores a year ago, a significant step forward is probable... but this line looks average. (Check back next year, though, when four starters return again, three will be seniors, and the only departure is the center.)

Defense

Last Year

Yow! Wisconsin croosh silly foes, especially when they dare to throw the ball. Again, disclaimers about strength of competition apply, especially to the pass defense. Troy Smith wasn't on the schedule, the bowl opponent's best quarterback was Darren McFadden, and the rest of the nonconference schedule, as mentioned, was dire. Performances by decent (defined as better than average (60th) passer efficiency) opposition quarterbacks:

Hey... that's still pretty friggin' good right there, though it should be noted that one of the Henne interceptions was a bizarre bomb with less than a minute on the clock and Michigan up two touchdowns and another was a gift that went right through Mario Manningham's hands. Henne had an efficient, effective day against the Badgers. Not so for Cupito, Painter, and Tate. (Tate's bizarre day might feature seventeen yards per catch and three touchdowns, but yards per attempt and completion percentage were horrible.) Maybe they wouldn't have been the best pass defense in the country without the schedule thing, but it's hard to conclude that they weren't very good against whatever mild tests it provided.

Meanwhile, the rush defense held Tony Hunt to 35 yards, limited a multi-pronged Illinois attack to 121 yard on 41 carries -- under three per -- and gave Mike Hart a tougher game than anyone except USC. (Hart was decently effective with four YPC and 91 yards, but only decently.) The only teams that managed any better were the unconventional attacks of Purdue and Arkansas. The Wisconsin defense was for real.

Also, this is something TAMABINPO brought up a long time ago but it stuck with me: though Bret Bielema obviously doesn't know anything about haircuts or public relations, the dude coaches the hell out of defenses. The below chart is stolen from TAMABINPO
with 2006 stats added; TD = "total defense"; SD = "scoring defense":

       06TD 06SD 05TD 05SD 04TD 04SD | 03TD 03SD 02TD 02SD 01TD 01SD 00TD 00SC
KState  70   66   36   58   43   84  |   6    8    2    1    3    7    4   1
Wisc     5    2   87   57    9    6  |  43   50   63   38   58   81   79   34

The vertical lines indicate the departure of Bielema to Wisconsin. Okay, so two years ago the Wisconsin defense collapsed, but other than that he's been top ten in both scoring and total defense since 2000. Bielema's been fortunate to have some of the pansiest schedules you can possibly assemble during this run, but that's still remarkable. And he returns five of his front seven plus Jack Ikegwuonu. Yipes.

Defensive Line

Rating: 5. No team in the conference has a stronger defensive tackle rotation than Wisconsin's trio of Nick Hayden (above), Jason Chapman, and Mike Newkirk. Though none of them have flashy numbers -- 4.5 TFL for Hayden, 4.0 for Newkirk, and 6.5 for Chapman -- there is a reason Wisconsin's run defense posed a stiff test for opponents. Though middle linebacker Mark Zalewski was a decent Big Ten player, it wasn't him. The NFL draft passed him over. A small concern: Chapman is the only one who provided any pass rush.

End is a bit shallower with the departure of part-time starter Joe Monty and what seems a truly indefinite suspension for projected replacement Jamal Cooper. Cooper's always been one step away from getting run off; it seems this time he really did it. Though the press release doesn't say it's final it comes close:

Cooper will have access to full academic support services, but will no longer be a part of the football program in any other way.

If there's anyone who might reinstate Cooper after all this crap (three suspensions in under a year), it's Bret Bielema, but even he seems truly pissed off enough to cut ties.

That leaves starters Matt Shaughnessy and Kurt Ware. Shaughnessy was second team All Big Ten a year ago despite pretty average numbers: 35 tackles, 8 TFL, and 4 sacks in a full season against lots of bad teams. So there must be something there not reflected in the numbers. He did put those up as a true sophomore coming off ACL surgery; he's clearly on a stardom track entering his junior year. He projects as excellent, a potential first team All Big Ten player. Ware, on the other hand, has given no indication he can match that level of performance. A fifth year senior, Ware found his most extensive playing time as a part-time starter his redshirt sophomore year, picking up 3.5 sacks and being named UW's defensive player of the week against... Temple. Last year he was used sparingly despite apparently being healthy (he started the Bowling Green game and played in all 13 UW games) and Cooper had beaten him out despite all the shenanigans. Even better: Ware missed almost all of fall camp with an injury and may still be gimpy. Adequacy here is unlikely.

Still, the tackles and a rising star at defensive end make this the best line in the conference with the possible exception of Iowa, pending the development of Michigan's trio of new starters.

Linebackers

Rating: 4. Badger partisans are very excited about this group, especially weakside linebacker Jonathan Casillas, who FanHouse Big Ten/Badger guy Bruce Ciskie calls a "beast" whenever I instant message him. Conversations usually go like this:

MGoBrian: so here's this article about some Big Ten player doing something stupid. Post it maybe?
Ciskie: AAAAARGGH CASILLAS AAAAAAAA
MGoBrian: I hate you.

Normally I would regard this with considerable skepticism, but the exact same thing happened last year with Jack Ikegwuonu and boy howdy were Badger fans right about that. A quick glance at the stats confirms: 83 tackles, 12.5 TFLs (led team), and two sacks as a true sophomore. Oh, if only Chris Graham could have done that. Honorable mention All Big Ten a year ago, Casillas is movin' on up. Practice hype combined with on-field production has me sold. Buy low on the Casillas hype now.

Also returning is strongside linebacker Deandre Levy, the team's leading sacker a year ago. The story here is much the same as with Casillas minus the constant Ciskie promotion: a sophomore who was more than adequate as a first year starter should take another significant step forward as a junior. Wisconsin will use him as a frequent blitzer and may even depoy him as an edge rusher on passing downs if Kurt Ware doesn't provide much in the way of production. Without Casillas' stats, hype, and 2006 honorable mention, he's not likely to match his teammate's production, but he won't be bad.

Middle linebacker Mark Zalewski graduates, paving the way for a man with a familiar name: Hodge. This is Hawkeye destroyer Abdul's little brother Elijah (clowning above) and when he isn't stealing mopeds he's attempting to follow in his older brother's footsteps. The rest of the Big Ten heartily wishes Hodge all the failure in the world in this endeavor, but 25 tackles and two sacks in erratic time spotting various linebackers as a redshirt
freshman are an indication he has talent comparable to his brother. He also makes funny faces.

I almost gave this group a five, but the relative youth -- still no seniors -- prevented it.

Defensive Backs

Rating: 4. Though the nation's #1 pass efficiency defense was greatly helped out by the schedule, the conference numbers are nothing to scoff at:

PASS DEFENSE             G   Att  Cmp Int  Pct.  Yds  Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Wisconsin...........  8   244  116   9  47.5 1205  4.9  6 150.6

The no-Ohio-State caveat is worth repeating, but the numbers in the "last year" section indicate that the Wisconsin pass defense was not just a paper tiger. The ones directly above look like Wisconsin played Juice Williams every week. They were bad ass.

A large part of the badassery is due to the services of one Jack Ikegwuonu (right), an NFL prototype corner who was subject to a huge amount of preseason hype from the Badger camp and lived up to it. Though Mario Manningham got loose twice against Wisconsin, both times he was working on Detroiter Allen Langford, not Ikegwuonu. Manningham did manage a few shorter routes, but Ikegwuonu stuck close enough to the New Math to spook Michigan into avoiding him lest one out get jumped with disastrous results. He's a potential All American.

Allen Langford returns for a third year of starting opposite him. Langford made a leap from enormous liability to honorable mention All Big Ten a year ago, but I'm a bit dubious about that. Manningham torched the guy twice; on the second touchdown he was beat by five yards easy. A bad game? Just Manningham's general unstoppability? Maybe. You don't put up stats like Wisconsin did without at least two good corners, and even Charles Woodson got beat a few times. Still, he's clearly the weaker corner.

Safety is not set. The entire two-deep graduated, including second-leading tackler Joel Stellmacher and second-team All Big Ten Roderick Rogers. All we know about the two replacements is that their labrums are flimsy indeed. Remarkably, both Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter spent last year on the shelf after tearing said muscle, missing out on an opportunity to get blooded on something other than special teams. Now they are redshirt sophomores and starters. In high school both were regarded somewhat dubiously by the recruiting gurus: Pleasant was a marginal three-star Michigan State commit who fled to Wisconsin; his other offers were from Indiana, a then-decrepit Illinois, and MAC schools. Carter was a two-star. Wisconsin makes a living with these guys year-in and year-out but replacing two longtime starters with sophomores whose only experience is covering kicks is a potentially huge dropoff.

Special Teams

Rating: 4. Wisconsin's kickers are probably the best in the league. Kicker Taylor Melhaff was second-team All Big Ten a year ago, going 15 for 20 and missing only one field goal inside 40 yards. With Garrett Rivas gone, he's the Big Ten's top kicker. Punter Ken DeBauche was above average last year and returns for a senior season; Wisconsin's net punting average was 17th in the country. (And this despite giving up bundles of yards to Steve Breaston.)

However, the Badger return game was a mess last year. Wisconsin finished dead last in kickoffs at a paltry 15 yards per and was not much better in the punt game, finishing 96th and suffering a series of Zach Hampton muffs. Hampton's gone, but the alternatives aren't particularly appealing.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is nearly random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are highly likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Wisconsin was dead even a year ago. No conclusions to draw.

Position Switch Starters

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

None.

Dumbest Thing In CFN Preview

Just because.

They ranked the top offenses. The results:

7. Wisconsin
...

9. West Virginia

The mind... boggles. Boggle boggle boggle. Boggle!

Flickr Says...

Hyyyarrr, thar she blows. Either she batters Michigan's national championship hopes to splinters or, harpooned, wallows in plankton-laden seas as we chop her stem to stern.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Best Case

Ohio State 2002. 12-0.

Worst Case

If the line does not improve its pass protection t
he offense will take a step back from its only moderately successful 2006 and anyone who can stuff Hill with some consistency will splatter the Badger offense. If Donovan can't threaten the deep ball like Stocco did, this will be lots of teams. This could be an improved version of those Penn State teams that did things like lose 6-4 -- the offense just can't be quite as bad -- and finish 8-4.

Final Verdict

Wisconsin was, is, and will be a one-dimensional offensive team that relies on its running game to plow through opponents. This has been enough to make the Badgers a perennially good team but never a great one, and that will be the case again this year. Tyler Donovan is probably going to be average at best. PJ Hill is overrated and will get shut down several times this year. The offensive line was a mess last year and will sabotage an inexperienced quarterback without wholesale improvement. There will be four to six better offenses in the Big Ten.

However, there will not be more than one or two better defenses -- if there are any. You can sort of argue four starters return on the line what with Newkirk being a quasi-starter as the third defensive tackle. Two good, potentially great, outside linebackers also return. You are entering a world of pain if you try to run on the Badgers. It would be a shock if anyone in the conference finished with a better rushing defense. Despite the presence of Ikegwuonu, the prognosis for the pass defense isn't quite as rosy. The safeties are a major step back from last year's pair and the pass rush generated by the front four probably won't be great unless there are unexpected developments.

The schedule makers have withdrawn the Most Favored Nation status the Badgers had last year by removing Purdue and Northwestern, two teams nearly guaranteed to run screaming, King Kong-style, from PJ Hill's gargantuan thighs. Though MSU, Minnesota, and Indiana are no threat to do anything but crumple, there are five teams that can plausibly contain Hill and keep the Badgers from scoring much. Two or three of these teams will probably get run over anyway. The rest will be tough outs. Many close games are in the offing; though Wisconsin is likely to end up on the right side of most of them there are a couple losses in there somewhere. 10-2 is the projection; I would be less surprised at 9-3 than 11-1.

It's game week! And it's hot hot hot around these parts.

We want Jim Bob Norman. This dapper looking fellow is a little-used Appalachian State wide receiver:

Jim Bob Norman has three first names, and his ASU bio says it all:

One of the program's most popular players, among both home and visiting fans ... has recovered from a severe shoulder injury sustained while lifting weights last offseason ... is poised to make a run at playing time in a loaded ASU receiving rotation.

2006: Did not play (shoulder injury).

2005: Appeared in four games ... made only catch of the season in regular-season finale at Elon, a career-long 19-yarder ... always a fan favorite at home, was also the object of affection at LSU, where Tiger fans began chanting his name in the fourth quarter ... a huge ovation erupted when Norman took the field at Tiger Stadium and he also received a standing ovation when leaving the field.

Just in case anyone is interested in starting up a chant or, I dunno, bringing a student-section-sized "We Want Jim Bob" banner to the game.

I know just how this guy feels. Owners of Hail To The Victors 2007 have probably noted an extensive article on Jim Harbaugh that lionizes his Michigan career and notes the up-and-coming coach who is not a backstabbing douchebag in any way may be in line for the Michigan job if the timing is right. Yeah. About that: obviously that was written before he applied plastic explosive to his Michigan bridges. So not only did I have same experience most Michigan fans did -- I can't believe this guy -- but I also got a special dose of banging my head against the wall and moaning "no no no no" because of the article. Thanks, Jim!

Anyway, The Town Talk, a small Louisiana newspaper, has an extensive article on Mamou native LaTerryal Savoy. Headline:

Former Mamou star focuses on faith first, football second

Lead:

Proverbs 3:5-6 says: "Trust in the LORD with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make your paths straight."

For some, the above passage is just mere words on a piece of parchment.

For LaTerryal Savoy, those words provide him with comfort, guidance, strength and love.

No mention of Proverbs 6:6-7: "Yea, go unto the stadium and displayeth your wang unto the unwilling; they shall rejoice and be glad. Then hire Counterpunt." But seriously, folks!

The article does paint a picture of Savoy reminiscent of Jason Avant; even if he made an unwise move he still seems like a good guy.

Well, at least we aren't Texas. Despite all the rhetoric about a "Big Ten tax" and how terrible it is that Appalachian State is not likely to be seen by many people, there are fans in a worse situation:

The Texas-Arkansas State game on Saturday, Sept. 1, at 6 p.m. CT will be televised live on pay-per-view by Big 12 Special Order Sports, FSN Southwest's pay-per-view division. It will be available on participating cable television systems in Texas and Arkansas, and nationwide to satellite dish customers. Suggested retail price is $29.95.

Thirty bucks to see a Sun Belt team! I bet you could walk up and get a ticket for less than that.

Transcription. What The Deuce jotted down some notes from a DeBord appearance on WDFN. A couple items:

Chengelis: What is going on with the right side of the line?

DeBord: I'm pleased with the play of Justin Boren at center. Schilling and Ortmann are competing for the right guard spot. Steve has started to step up. (emphasis mine). Cuilla is playing right guard now. We're happy that Alex Mitchell will be able to come back. (emphasis is mine).

Further confirmation we can expect to see Schilling for the opener; Cuilla, despite his injury, looks like he will also start. Also, we have a tentative winner at fullback: Mark Moundros. FWIW.

Accursed flash. ABC 13 in Houston has a veritable treasure trove of interviews with recruits Darryl Stonum and Sam McGuffie and their coaches, plus a couple highlights from a recent Cy Fair-Woodlands scrimmage in which McGuffie broke off a couple of long runs. I can't actually link to any of it because it's all contained in one of those hateful little flash applications that's completely opaque. So... it's all here. Scroll down and find the flash app, click on "highlights from Woodlands-Cy Fair Scrimmage," and enjoy. Then scroll down in the app and click on as many things that say "Stonum" and "McGuffie" as you can find.

McGuffie says he's up to 195, BTW, from 175 last season. Hopefully he maintains his speed.

Etc.: Buckeye Commentary interviews BTN head Mark Silverman; The Hawkeye Compulsion previews State; the Hoover Street Rag proposes a Bo statue.

...is your kicker:

"As of right now, Jason Gingell will be doing field goals and I will be doing kickoffs," kicker Bryan Wright said Saturday at U-M's fan day at Michigan Stadium.

Gingell, Wright and K.C. Lopata were competing for the open position and, according to Gingell and Wright, they were informed by the coaches on Thursday of the decisions.

"I always kept my hopes up and knew with Garrett leaving, it would be open," said Gingell, a 5-foot-9, 191-pound senior from Northville who played with U-M long snapper Sean Griffin at Detroit Catholic Central. "What the coaches look for is consistency ... It's better at the end of camp to finish better and it was more important to be consistent at the end of camp instead of at the beginning and I was at the end."

I would prefer to see Wright, a redshirt freshman on scholarship, take the job, but I'll let him miss a couple 27-yarders against Appalachian State before I bust out the tinfoil hat.

Also:

-- Among the other position battles, freshman cornerback Troy Woolfolk said Morgan Trent and Johnny Sears are the starting corners.

"I'm at second string at cornerback, trying to work my way up there," Woolfolk said.
He said the mental part of the game, especially learning to read his keys, is the biggest challenge.

-- Right guard Alex Mitchell said his right knee, which he "tweaked in a practice" last week, is improving during rehab and he hopes to return for the Oregon game on Sept. 8.

Don't think the Woolfolk thing is particularly meaningful except as an indication that Doug Dutch is never going to see the field ever, but it would be nice to have Mitchell available for a potentially scary game against Oregon.

Update: Also, Carson Butler says he's not buried in the doghouse:

A six-game starter in 2006, Butler led all Michigan tight ends with 19 catches. Despite his extended absence this off-season, the redshirt sophomore said he should be able to contribute to the Wolverines in short order.

"I feel like I'm back in the mix," he said. "Not too far away."

Anyone out there get something useful from Fan Day? Like, say "Johnny Sears will be an All-American?" Bueller?

Who is overrated?

The easiest thing to do here is present The Hoosier Report's argument for Georgia:

To some degree, my rationale for ranking the Bulldogs #5 (as opposed to #14 in the Blogpoll at large) is inconsistent with above. UGa returns only 3 defensive starters. Consistent with my other logic, the Bulldogs do return QB Matthew Stafford, who should be better (of course, being worse would be almost impossible). In the SEC East, even compared to defending champion Florida, I trust Richt's track record at Georgia more than I trust the track record of any other coach/program. Last year was Georgia's worst season since Richt's first season, 2001. My hunch is that Georgia will rebound. That's good enough for the preseason, right?

Well... no! No, it isn't. Witness: we've got the three returning starters from the defense that kept Georgia afloat last year, a red flag from a clever theorem, and the low likelihood of a true sophomore with an almost 1:2 TD-INT ratio carrying a team anywhere except a Year of Considerable Pain . But this is the trump card:

Because of injuries, four true or redshirt freshmen are playing on the first-team offensive line right now.

In all, Georgia is down to eight scholarship linemen. None of the injuries is too serious.

Projected starters Chester Adams, a senior, and Scott Haverkamp, a junior college transfer, should be back from ankle injuries within a couple of days. In the meantime, redshirt freshman defensive lineman Kiante Tripp was moved to the offensive line Tuesday.

Haverkamp is a first-year player, and Adams is at a new position and in a new role as a leader. Their brief departures from the practice field have shown just how tenuous Georgia's grasp on success up front is.

"I told myself after 2003 it wouldn't happen again," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt said.

But the thin red line happened in 2006 and now, as proven the past few days, could easily happen again in 2007.

"We got pretty slim out there for a while last year," said Davis, a redshirt freshman. "And it is looking a little scary out there now."

It could be downright frightening if you look at it from the perspective of quarterback Matthew Stafford. There's a strong chance both tackle positions will be held down by true freshmen.

Trinton Sturdivant is almost a lock to start at left tackle, on Stafford's blind side. Clint Boling is making a push to play at the right tackle. (If the latter happened, Adams would move back to his natural guard position.)

And the learning curve is Everest-steep. Georgia kicks off the season against two teams with high hopes, Oklahoma State and South Carolina.

This is going to be bad. Very, very bad. Unless Stafford matures immediately (chances of this...

...are slim) or the Georgia offensive line turns into Christmas Miracle Voltron, the offense is going to be just as bad as it was last year when Georgia was wildly fortunate to finish 9-4. With a nearly all-new defense, replicating even that record looks like a longshot. The only reason to rank the Dawgs appears to be historical inertia.

I'm also highly dubious about Auburn for similar reasons. SMQB's brilliant "Life on the Margins" series is a preseason feature that explores the particularly lucky and unlucky teams of the previous year. Auburn comes in for a bludgeoning:

Sounding the alarm at least as loud as anything in that chart [which showed Auburn outgained significantly in four separate wins] is this: Auburn was 6-2 in the SEC, yet was outgained by about 33 yards per conference game (Vanderbilt, 1-7, was outgained by 24.7 ypg). Not only were the Tigers incredibly opportunistic – the great turnover margin, the pass interference no-call against LSU, a defensive and a special teams touchdown against Florida, the onside kick at South Carolina, short field scores in rock-bottom offensive efforts against 'Bama and Nebraska – but they were the only team in the conference that couldn't also argue about the one that got away, because their two losses were unambiguous blowouts at the hands of Arkansas and Georgia, both starting true freshman quarterbacks on the road.

Brandon Cox has never impressed and he regressed badly towards the end of 2006. He threw 19 interceptions, the same as Curtis Painter. Also, Auburn has a bit of a problem on the offensive line, too. One starter returns; true freshman Lee Ziemba is the probable starter at one tackle spot. Other freshmen dot the two-deep in uncomfortable places like wide receiver, safety, and center. I think 15 is pretty generous even though they were 11-2 last year. I can see ranking them somewhere at the tail end of the poll.

Who is underrated?

Arkansas. It's odd that the most hyped player in the country finds his team in need of this sort of defending, but apparently he does. The offense returns virtually intact, down only two offensive linemen and Mitch Mustain, still in possession of McFadden, Felix Jones, and Marcus Monk, three men undoubtedly raised in a secret laboratory somewhere. Even though the Hogs couldn't throw worth a damn last year, they still finished 29th in total offense. If Casey Dick can just elevate himself to slight competence...

Arkansas is suffering from a sort of inverse Charles Rogers Theorem effect, I think, after losing their final three games of the year. But I submit these facts to you: LSU was outgained in its victory and the final margin came courtesy a kick return touchdown. Wisconsin was outgained nearly two-to-one but managed to hang on to the Citrus Bowl. (Florida did outplay Arkansas, although that backbreaking Reggie Fish punt muff screams "alternate history fork point".)

Perhaps it's just my natural skittishness as a Michigan fan that has to actually face this team, but Oregon also seems low to me. Again, this is a team that finished the year poorly, in Oregon's case spectacularly so. The Ducks lost their last four games, the finale a 30-point loss to a pretty meh BYU team, and finished 6-7 only because of one of the all-time refereeing gaffes in college football history. Plus, their quarterback spent the summer screwing around with baseball. But, again, Life on the Margins reveals a major discrepancy:

Oregon is a classic "margin" team because of these two very relevant statistics:

Yardage Margin in Pac Ten Games: + 136.4
Turnover Margin in Pac Ten Games: - 13

The first number was by far the best in the conference. The second number was by far the worst. The second number is probably also more important: Oregon's ten-win team in 2005, for example, only outgained conference opponents by about 77 yards per game, good but well below last y
ear's team, yet it challenged for the BCS because it was also plus-13 in turnover margin.

SMQB goes on to point out that the reason for that -13 has much to do with Dennis Dixon's propensity for spectacularly bad interceptions and that a good deal about this season hinges on his ability to fix this problem. Will he? Dunno. That baseball thing has to give Duck fans the heebie-jeebies. But he is a senior with lots of starting experience and has a wicked set of skill position players to work with. The defense? I don't know. But Oregon's crap 2006 record has one clear cause that should get fixed. I expect a major bounce.