November 2006

Note: UFR coming tomorrow. I have to grab the video myself and that's slowing things down quite a bit. Also, I hate doing this so end up doing other things. I'm almost done, though.

A mighty hat tip to Vijay of IBFC, who brought this to my attention.

I've defended the idea of computer rankings in this space before -- long story short, human pollsters would be just as flawed if they didn't know the scores of any of the games, too -- while knocking their current implementation in the BCS. What I didn't know is how reprehensible certain implementations are. Take, for example, Richard Billingsley of Billingsley report fame.

I like my computer rankings studious and complicated. Whisper math into my ear: regression! matrix! directed acyclic graph! Oh yeah, that's the stuff. I like to think of the creators of these things as four-eyed math PhDs with the complexion of cave fish and hentai addictions. In short, I want them to be smart. I want their writing to be an impenetrable mass of equations.

I do not want this:

Believe it or not, the system is designed after our own United States Constitution. But don't hold that against it! Although at times I feel this system is just about as complicated as our Federal Government, there is one huge difference..... this one works!

Take my rankings, please!

This would be charmingly odd if there were some good old fashioned impenetrable and rigorous equations. This is not the case. The Billingsley formula is a ridiculous hodgepodge of kludge factors combined with good old-fashioned human input.

Inanity #1: a team gets more credit for its ranking at the time the game was played than its actual ranking:

For many years I struggled with whether a team's SOS should be calculated by using a teams rating and rank on the day the game was played, or use an opponents most recent rating and rank. There are excellent arguments for both sides. Early on I used ONLY GAME DAY stats. I felt very strongly that if Georgia was ranked #1 when they played #5 Florida, the Gators should get credit for playing a #1 team, even if Georgia later fell to #10. THE MIND SET OF THE GAME, THE INTENSITY OF THE GAME, REVOLVED AROUND PLAYING A #1 TEAM. How can the mind set and intensity of a game be overlooked 4 weeks later? But critics will say "but what if Georgia fell to #50, do the Gators still get credit for playing a #1 team?" Very good point. It does happen. Rankings can fluctuate dramatically during the course of a season. Look at Alabama in 2000.

Several years ago I made a compromise that I think has worked exceptionally well. I use a combination of both, with percentages tilted slightly towards the game day rating and rank. This way both are taken into account. The current rankings are not totally discounted but more credit is given to the original "mind set and intensity" of the game.

First of all, this is a man who thinks "mindset" is two words. Second... that's completely insane. USC gets little credit for playing Arkansas because Billingsley didn't think Arkansas was good going into the season. When reality disagrees with his rankings, he treats it as noise. If Notre Dame had proceeded to go 2-10 after Michigan waxed them, they'd still get a huge boost because ND was #2 when they played.

Inanity #2: arbitrarily rank everyone and then give that ranking real weight because you want the poll to look cool in week #2, when no one cares.

The Season Progression may need a little explanation. They are really a very simple, yet powerful set of rules. I want my poll to "look logical". In the first week of the season if Florida St. beats #107 No. Illinois, and Ball St. beats #58 Memphis, I don't want Ball St. ranked ahead of Florida St. just because they both have 1-0 records. That's not logical. We ALL KNOW Ball St. is not in the same league with Florida St., at least not at this juncture. Let them EARN IT first. Let them prove it over due course of time, then my poll will respond accordingly. That's what I mean by Season Progression. All of my teams start out with a rank, #1-#117, because they ARE NOT ALL EQUAL. We KNOW THAT from past experience, so why not use that experience to begin with. Some would say starting all teams equal, or all at 0, is the only FAIR thing to do. I say it's the most UNFAIR thing you can do, and besides its just plain illogical.

I think some would say that APING HUMAN POLLS is RIDICULOUS because if THAT'S WHAT WE WANTED TO DO we wouldn't PUT COMPUTER POLLS IN THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Inanity #3: Adamant opposition to having past seasons carryover except when he wants them to.

As I have said many, many, times, I am adamantly OPPOSED to PRESEASON POLLS. They do an incredible injustice to College Football. I could state COUNTLESS examples over the last 50 years of such injustices, but let's look at the most recent glaring example of Texas in 2001? How in this world did Texas deserve a Top 5 Pre Season ranking after having come off a 9-5 #29 campaign? Moving 26 places without ever playing a down of football? Based on what, a new hot quarterback? Give me a break. The sportswriters may as well hold a lottery in George W's 10 Gallon Hat. It would be just as accurate. Enough of that... don't get me started.

Wow. That actually sounds sane. Past seasons shouldn't affect this one at a--

I am convinced that carrying a team's RANK over from one season to the next, and then making the rules for the first few weeks of the season "more relaxed" is the best method to use. To accomplish this I created a different set of rules for the first 4 weeks of the season.

There's no ellipsis there! That thought follows the previous one without a word omitted! Aaaah!

Inanity #4: heavily weighting the last week.

Now, let's go one step further. I don't want a team jumping 60 places from #70 to #10 in November either. You just simply can't turn your season around in one game, even if you beat a #1 team. I want people to be able to look at my poll, look at the previous week's contests, and say, "oh, I can see how he did that". So there are specific rules in place that PREVENT those things from occurring. I guess you could say it "forces a team to progress through the season in a logical fashion". I don't believe a team should be #50 in week #8 and #1 in week #9. I wanted to create as much STABILITY as possible in the poll, especially in the Top 10. If a team moves up, I want a person to be able to see WHY, through looking AT THE MOST RECENT PERFORMANCE FIRST, then taking the other factors into account. Additionally, I feel very strongly that the most recent performance should carry a stronger weight. A team should be better in November than they are in September.

Note that this is exactly what human polls are often accused of: that when you lose is more important than strength of schedule or overall performance. Ask Louisville and West Virginia about this. The idea of a computer poll is to get rid of this bias.

Inanity #4: arbitrary bonuses.

A team's defensive performance is given a special look because in my mind winning the game it's self is a reward of offensive performance, but the defense often gets overlooked. Great teams are built on solid defense and I feel that should be rewarded, even if it is so very slightly. The reward is based on holding an opponent to less than a touchdown, on a scale of 0-6 points, a shutout getting the most benefit. Also, after all is said and done, a final look is made at a team's overall record, and a very small adjustment is made in that comparison. If a team has a winning record, even by just one game, say 3-2 on the season, they get some reward for that.

I'v
e come out in favor of polls using yardage, turnovers, and any other data available that they can make sense of. this is not that. This is a completely arbitrary bonus that you get for shutting out Northeast Kansas Tech or don't for letting your third-stringers give up a meaningless late touchdown. It's overvaluing an opponent because it has a 3-2 record instead of a 2-3 record.

Billingsley has set out to create a polls that LOOKS GOOD and in doing so he has put in all sorts of kludges. His poll is an attempt to massage computer data into mimicking human polls. It has nothing more rigorous than Billinglsey's opinion behind hit. It's a Rube Goldberg machine that's embarrassing, and it's part of the BCS.

The official teams just bucket players into three categories: line, LB, and DB. I think this is dumb. For instance, all four first-team DBs are cornerbacks. Uh... okay. This list breaks the line down into DT and DE and the defensive backs into CB and S. Linebackers are still one big bin.

Remember: Notre Dame worthies are included, though this is way less funny for the defensive side of the ball.

Defensive End

1. Lamarr Woodley, Michigan

If you read this blog, you know about Woodley. He has 11.5 sacks and equal-if-not-greater contributions that only show up in OCD game charting. He is the face of the Michigan defense that was so magnificent for 11 of Michigan's 12 games and one of the premiere defensive ends in the country. Justifying his inclusion is like justifying Troy Smith's.

1. Anthony Spencer, Purdue

If Spencer's luck holds -- and let's hope it doesn't -- he'll be playing for the Detroit Lions next year. He was a capital-M Man without a defense in 2006. Anything the Boilermakers managed to do right on that side of the ball was a direct result of something Spencer did. And lord, he did a lot: a Matt-Rothian 26.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. His most impressive/depressing statistic, though was his 86 tackles, second on the team. At defensive end! Spencer was the Kevin Garnett of the Big Ten in 2006. Like Garnett, he should be commended for not snapping and breaking the neck of any of his incompetent teammates.

2. Vernon Gholston, Ohio State

Alternated terrifying edge rushes with equally terrifying (to Ohio State fans) wild run irresponsibility early. As the season wore on the former remained and the latter dwindled, making Gholston scary to only one set of fans. I don't like the idea of him next year, and that's what this list is: Michigan players I love and opposing players I hate. So, yeah. I hate Gholston. Congratulations.

2. Brian Mattison, Iowa

Doesn't have the stats a few others do, but what can I say? I just like the guy. Uh... hate the guy. You know what I mean. When I UFRed the Iowa-Michigan game, he was all over Michigan's zone running game. When I did a tape review of the Iowa-Ohio State game, he was the only guy with a concept of containment and the only guy capable of getting to Troy Smith. Those were Iowa's two biggest games of the year, and he was one of the best players on the field in both

Defensive Tackle

1. Alan Branch, Michigan

Mountain of a defensive tackle who didn't rack up a ton of flashy stats except this one: #1, as in Michigan's rushing defense (despite those, uh, hiccups versus Ohio State, which only served to bring that defense back down into the realms of the mortal). Branch is a disruptor on the interior and a guy you single block at your peril, just like...

1. Quinn Pitcock, Ohio State

A sure first-rounder in April's NFL draft, Pitcock was far and away the best player on Ohio State's defense, crashing through interior lines like they were made of the slightest cotton en route to eight sacks, eleven tackles for loss, and a lot of easy plays for his linebackers.

2. Ed Johnson, Penn State

I know Alford had more sacks and tackles for loss, but when I watched Penn State it was Johnson who was the more consistent of the two Penn State tackles. Alford is a penetrator who relies a lot on quickness and runs himself out of plays here and there, while Johnson is one of those 6'0", 310 pound fireplugs that drives people into the backfield with remarkable regularity. Johnson made more plays than his partner, but fewer of them showed up in his statistics.

2. David Patterson/Terrance Taylor/Jay Alford, OSU/UM/PSU

Yes, this is a cop out. Each benefited from playing next to the above terrors. Alford is a penetrator and a playmaker like Pitcock, while Patterson and Taylor are more in the mold of Johnson. Each filled the space next to their partner with a second playmaking defensive tackle and created havoc in opposing offenses.

Linebacker

1. David Harris, Michigan

Made the leap from pretty good to outstanding his senior year, tracking down backs sideline-to-sideline on all manner of run and pass plays. Other than Branch, he was the man most responsible for Michigan's #1 rush defense. Criminally left off the Butkus finalist list, he's the best Michigan linebacker I can remember (this extends only back to Jarrett Irons, freaked out 40-something Michigan fans). He played nearly every snap Michigan's defense faced and made only one glaring error, a busted coverage that led to Wisconsin's touchdown. I hate the idea of a middle linebacker other than him.

1. J Leman, Illinois

Does anyone remember how awful the Illinois defense was a year ago? Probably not. If you have data about the 2005 Fighting Illini in your head, you are wasting space that could be more productively used with something like the jeans preferences of squirrels. Well, I know nothing about the sartorial splendor of squirrels (imagine Lou Holth thaying that five timeth fath), but I do remember that the 2005 Illinois defense was an abomination.

So if I told you that the 2006 version of same was above average, you'd want to hand out a medal. Well: here's the medal. Leman racked up 152 tackles, 19 for loss, four sacks, four pass breakups, and two forced fumbles as the Illini shot up to 40th in total defense. He was the guy running around against Ohio State stuffing the Buckeye's six million second-half runs. He was... good. Which is weird to say about an Illinois player, let me tell you.

Also: his first name is "J". No period. No abbreviation. Just a letter. He is also unmistakably rocking a mullet in that headshot. Rocking a mullet and wearing an American flag tie. He is Joe Dirt, linebacker. That demands recognition.

1. Dan Connor, Penn State

Outperformed his more touted partner in the opinion of most Penn State fans, and that's good enough for me. He was a force in the PSU games I watched, slightly more likley to burst into the backfield and maul an unsuspecting running back. His 103 tackles came from an outside linebacker position, while Posluszny's 108 came in the middle: slight advantage Connor.

2. Paul Posluszny, Penn State

Probably didn't deserve the Butkus last year (AJ Hawk) or his finalist status this year (arrrrgh David Harris), but still a damn good linebacker. Against Michigan he refused to stay blocked on the second level, slanting and shedding his way to bottle up Mike Hart time and again. Though Hart would finish with 112 yards, they would be his toughest of the season.

2. Mark Zalewski, Wisconsin

I'm mildly upset at my own list here, which is virtually ignoring the Big Ten's fourth badass defense: Wisconsin. They have a couple first-teamers in the secondary, but hardly any representation up front, largely because they suffer from the same problem Ohio State wide receivers do: too much balance. Zalewski doesn't have a million tackles but he does have a mohawk and a bad attitude. (I was briefly tempted to have the second team linebackers be Zalewski, Prescott Burgess, and Shawn Crable so I could make some comment about pityi ng the fool who tries to run on them, but I was quickly tackled and injected with sedatives when I mentioned it. And thank God for that.)

2. James Laurinaitis, Ohio State

My position on Laurinaitis and his magic, leather-magnetized hands has been made clear: dude is way overrated and belongs nowhere near the Butkus finalist list or the All-American teams he'll no doubt feature on. I blame two people: Troy Smith and Brent Musberger. Smith is the primary motor for Ohio State's #1 ranking and Musberger's intolerable boosterism of him during the Texas game, Iowa game, and every other game was repeated so often that it became true in the minds of the brainwashed masses.

...but he does have his good points. He is fast, able in zone drops -- to get Drew Tate to throw the ball right at you you have to be in good position -- and a good blitzer. If he's kept clean he will fill and tackle ably. He's not bad by any stretch of the imagination and... sigh... deserves a place on this team. But on the second team, dammit, until he defeats a block. Any block.

Cornerback

1. Leon Hall, Michigan

I was confused about the Hall hype -- top corner in the draft, Playboy All-American -- going into the season, thinking him more a Jeremy Lesueur type who would be first or second team all conference and a second or third round pick. I was wrong. Hall is the best Michigan corner since Woodson, solid against both the run and the pass, a superb tackler and technician. He does not have the outrageous athleticism of someone like Justin King, but makes up for it with instincts and smarts. A probable top-ten pick in April's draft.

1. Jack Ikegwuonu, Wisconsin

By all rights should be playing for Purdue with that last name, but the Badgers are glad to have him. Ikegwuonu's matchup with Manningham was the most difficult the Michigan sophomore faced all year -- his long touchdown victimized Allen Langford -- as he found his outs, slants, and the like blanketed, leaving Michigan almost no margin for error on those throws. That's all you can do as a cornerback.

2. Justin King, Penn State

Let's get this out of the way: he can't tackle worth a lick. Run at him and he may as well be a ballerina. But in pure coverage terms, he might be the best in the league. Living up to the recruiting hype, as corners tend to do, his athleticism is NFL-caliber and his instincts are good. Hard to beat deep and hard to sit down in front of, King is a thorn in the side of opposing passing games.

2. Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

A jam artist and a tough customer in run support, Jenkins is an up-and-comer in the league. If he manages to rein in his aggression and be smarter about when to back off, he'll be a complete corner. As of now he still gets burnt-crispy deep with some regularity. This year it wasn't relevant since Ohio State got so many sacks and faced so many hobbled or plain bad quarterbacks.

Safety

1. Roderick Rogers, Wisconsin

Rogers didn't have to do much against the run thanks to the imposing Wisconsin front seven (their absence from this team should not reflect poorly on them -- it's a tough year to get on this team up there). Free to play centerfield, Rogers picked off two passes, broke up seven others, and was key in Wisconsin's #1 ranked pass efficiency defense -- a number that's overstated due to the Badgers' Minnesota-worthy schedule but still damn impressive.

1. Brandon Mitchell, Ohio State

Ohio State safeties are beginning to bother me like Ohio State kickers do. Where do they unearth these people, and do they have a patent? I bet there's a lab somewhere.

2. Anthony Scirroto, Penn State

I give up and give in to five interceptions. I don't like doing this, but I begin to understand why there are four cornerbacks on the All Big Ten first teams.

2. Jamar Adams, Michigan

Michigan rotated four safeties all year, but what they really did is rotate three guys through free safety and have them play next to Adams, a solid run defender who's comptetent-ish in pass coverage. Yes, it's a weak year for safeties.

Note: I've never gotten the idea of All-Whatever teams with two running backs. Teams don't play two running backs. They play a fullback or a third wide receiver or maybe a tight end. Given spreadmania in the Big Ten, the first team offense has three wideouts. A fullback is on the second team.

Also: offensive linemen are broken down by position, which was stupid in retrospect.

Also also: MGoBlog feels sorry for Notre Dame. Since the Irish aren't in a conference, they can't get all-conference level recognition. In the spirit of the season, I've decided to share the Big Ten awards with ND. All deserving Irish players are included.

Quarterback

1. Troy Smith, Ohio State.

I don't want to talk about it. Fortunately, I don't have to since this is obvious.

2. Chad Henne, Michigan.

Wasn't asked to do much -- new Michigan offensive coordinator Mike Debord apparently gets a series of painful electric shocks whenever he calls a first-down pass -- but was efficient when called upon. His strike rate on bombs was exceptional this year and his overall accuracy was similarly improved after an uneven sophomore year. Henne is maturing into the player Michigan fans thought he'd be after an impressive freshman debut, though he was clearly a step behind Smith during The Game.

Running Back

1. Mike Hart, Michigan

He's little, he's impossible to tackle, and he never fumbles except for that one time he did. But even that wasn't charged against him. Stupid rule, but we'll take it. The backbone of the Michigan offense, Hart led the nation in carries, finished seventh in yards, and drove Michigan up from the ashes of 7-5. He won't win the Doak Walker, but goddammit he should win something. Invent it. The Mike Hart: for being exactly like Mike Hart.

2. Tony Hunt, Penn State

Yes, he was badly outgained by Wisconsin's PJ Hill, but Hill had the following advantages:

• a quarterback
• an offensive line.

You will agree with me that these are important things to have in the game of football, yes? Hunt was the Penn State offense, such as it was. With Anthony Morelli completing a whopping 54% of his passes, teams could tee off on Hunt on anything that looked remotely like a running down. This they did, but Hunt dragged them five yards forward anyway. I went into the year thinking Hunt was average at best, but come out of it with a respect for his pounding style and yeoman service to a lost cause. Without him, Penn State reverts all the way to their 2003-2004 nadir. If you're handing out a "most valuable player" award in the Big Ten... well... Troy Smith still wins. But Hunt is second.

Fullback

2. BranDon Snow, PSU

I love fullbacks, and place one on this team despite their rapidly fading relevance. Snow was the thumping hammer for Tony Hunt's junior and senior years, when Penn State's running game emerged to rescue it from the bowlless depths of seasons past. Like Kevin Dudley, Snow turns linebackers into a white-hot furrow of snapped limbs and smoke, and that deserves a "shout-out," as the kids say with the hippin' and the hoppin' these days.

Wide Receiver

1. Mario Manningham, Michigan

Missed three games and was used sparingly in another two after midseason knee surgery, but you can't overlook 19.5 yards per catch and 9 touchdowns, all of them deep balls that Manningham hauled in with a breathtaking gracefulness. Or maybe that last bit is just me. He's inexplicably, remarkably good, physically imposing in no way. The magic is in his routes, which get him yards past befuddled defensive backs, and his hands, which cradle over-the-shoulder bombs like they're kittens. Kittens of Wolverine joy.

1. Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State

IS BETTER THAN TED GINN. Okay? Okay? It's a testament to Troy Smith that the Buckeyes spread the ball around so much that four receivers ended up with around thirty catches, but it did depress the chances of said receivers getting flashy postseason awards. Well, not here. Gonzalez is fast, smart, and sure-handed, and it was he -- not Ginn -- who turned in the year's best highlight reel moment from the Buckeye wide receiving corps when he turned a short dig route into a WOOP WOOP WOOP thirty yard touchdown against Iowa. Also, he didn't drop like five passes versus Michigan.

1. Dorien Bryant, Purdue

It's a shame that Purdue only has one defensive player who doesn't suck in all the ways you can suck (DE Anthony Spencer), as a Purdue team with a competent defense would have been a fun, dangerous team to watch the rest of the Big Ten play. Bryant was the unquestioned center of that danger, a waterbug of a wide receiver who was Steve Breaston's good twin over the course of his four years as a Purdue starter.

2. Logan Payne, Minnesota

He's big, kind of lumbering, and white, but kind of good and fast and stuff. Where did Logan Payne come from? No one knows. Where is he going? The middle rounds of the NFL draft. The most unsung offensive skill player in the Big Ten, Payne ended up fifth in receiving yards per game playing in a run-dedicated Minnesota offense. He's a dedicated blocker on the edge, quick enough to take a long handoff six or seven yards, and irritatingly good at getting open in zone coverage. This was supposed to be Ernest Wheelwright's spot, but Payne was the focus of the Minnesota passing game.

2. James Hardy, Indiana

Much debate here. Hardy's numbers came in great bursts against certain crappy secondaries (Iowa, Michigan State) but were interspersed with caverns of nothing production against real teams. Still, Hardy had to deal with bracketed coverage, a freshman quarterback, and the general Indiana-ness of Indiana and still played a huge role in most of Indiana's five victories.

Tight End

1. Matt Spaeth, Minnesota

I've had a throbbing mancrush on the brobdingnagian Spaeth since his sophomore year, when he spearheaded Minnesota's perimeter rushing game with vicious abandon. He slowly became a viable option in the passing game; this year he was a weapon in both the run and pass games. I won't soon forget his down block on Tim Jamison when the Gophers played Michigan: he came in motion and then blew Jamison onto he ground like he was a child. Result: 20 yards for Amir Pinnix. Plus he catches and stuff. Farewell, O Mighty Spaeth.

2. Travis Beckum, Wisconsin

...was a linebacker a year ago. This year, he's the Big Ten's second-leading receiver. Saddled with receivers named "Swan" who play like that irritating Asian stereotype from the always-unfunny MadTV, John Stocco had to find someone to throw the ball to. Someone turned out to be Beckum, a hyped defensive recruit a couple years who found an application for this athleticism on the other side of the ball. Beckum has hands and the ability to stretch linebackers down the seam. He's a mismatch waiting to happen and Tyler Donovan's favorite target in 2007, guaranteed.

Offensive Tackle

1. Joe Thomas, Wisconsin

...will be a top five draft pick. Crooshed silly defenders en route to 1500-yard PJ Hill season. Yielded zero sacks. Uh, yeah.

1. Jake Long, Michigan

...will return for his senior year (please?). If he doesn't, will be a first-round draft pick. Michigan ran "zone left" on seemingly half its snaps a year ago, and Long was a major reason why.

2. Mike Otto and Sean Sester, Purdue

The Boilermakers threw a remarkable 505 passes this year. Curtis Painter was sacked only 17 times, largely because the veteran Purdue offensive line walled off opponents like whoah. (Also slightly because Purdue didn't play Michigan or Ohio State.)

Guard

Well... crap. I don't know enough about offensive lines and I haven't watched games closely enough to really tell you. So this is sketchy guesswork.

1. Adam Kraus, Michigan

I have watched a lot of Michigan games and observed the interior line play. Kraus has been solid in both pass and run protection. Occasionally he'll miss a block, but that happens to everyone, and when he does it's usually one of those playside nightmares against a slanting DL.

1. TJ Downing, Ohio State
2. Mike JONES, Iowa
2. Kyle Cook, Michigan State

On the theory that the coaches know what they're doing.

Center

1. Doug Datish, Ohio State
2. Mark Bihl, Michigan

Again, coach agreeance by default.

Woo! Interior linemen! So hard!

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Ohio State	--
2	Southern Cal	--
3	Michigan	--
4	Florida	1
5	LSU	7
6	Louisville	1
7	Arkansas	3
8	Oklahoma	2
9	Notre Dame	3
10	Wisconsin	2
11	Rutgers	--
12	Auburn	5
13	California	1
14	Texas	5
15	West Virginia	2
16	Boise State	--
17	Virginia Tech	4
18	Brigham Young	2
19	Wake Forest	3
20	Nebraska	3
21	Hawaii	3
22	Tennessee	3
23	Georgia Tech	8
24	Texas A&M	2
25	Penn State	1

Saw a lot this weekend: A&M-Texas, Arkansas-LSU, USC-ND, bits of Wake-Maryland, WVU-USF once it was clear WVU was in trouble, Florida-FSU, Clemson-South Carolina, BC-Miami. Let's hear it for spreading games out over three days.

Notes:

• I've decided Wisconsin goes no further forward than the tail end of the top ten until their bowl game. Their best win is Penn State. After that... Purdue? Thanks to their embarrassing nonconference schedule and missing OSU, we have desperately few data points on Wisconsin and it would be the height of conveyor-belt mania to stick them above Arkansas or Notre Dame just because they happen to play more than one good team in a year.
• Wooo LSU! Okay: I've been a skeptic all year, but with everyone else losing and LSU claiming a couple quality wins, they bounce way up.
• The rest seems pretty standard to me, except maybe the PSU vote at #25. But whatever.