HARBECHLER HALL!!!!! pic.twitter.com/4cvLTUMz2q
— LostLettermen.com (@LostLettermen) December 24, 2014
All right, there's enough stuff. We're all degenerates.
THE CONFERENCE CALL. It happened, it was coy and positive. Not much of substance was related except an expectation that the next call might be unnecessary. There was a brief flutter of positive tweets from players, most of which were vague and quickly deleted. It was made clear that things are not signed($); the overall feeling from the meeting was highly positive.
Durkin is holding off on his plans
THIS IS KIND OF A BIG DEAL. Texas A&M has been trying to name a new defensive coordinator for a couple weeks now, and DJ Durkin is a—the—prime contender. He's not going to stay at Florida after McElwain poached the Mississippi State YOU'RE A BALLER guy, so why isn't he going for a good job in the SEC?
Texas A&M’s slow movement toward hiring a defensive coordinator appears to be tied to Jim Harbaugh.
One of the Aggies’ candidates, Florida defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, is waiting to see whether Harbaugh takes the open Michigan head coaching job, according to a source close to the situation. If Harbaugh, currently at odds with the San Francisco 49ers, were to go back to coach his alma mater, Durkin could get reunited with his former Stanford boss.
If Durkin is willing to stall on a job as good as A&M DC, that "could" is almost certainly a "would." And Harbaugh's arrival at Michigan seems highly probable as well. Nobody's going to keep a job like that waiting based on a vague hope.
Interestingly, Greg Mattison was also a part of these rumors. Sometimes he's mentioned as a possible "co-DC"; sometimes his potential role is unlisted. With current speculation leaning towards a Mattison/Durkin partnership at Michigan, that also signals a shift. Mattison reportedly cleared out his office with authority when Hoke was axed.
NUSSMEIER OUT. Doug Nussmeier takes the Florida OC job as the first half of a potential coordinator trade. There had been a little chatter that Michigan might keep him on that's obviously done now.
HACKETT'S APPROACH. Heard from someone close to the search that Hackett's first approach to Harbaugh was to ask him what were the five things that he needed if he was going to come back to Michigan. These included top-five college money and disciplinary autonomy. A lot of it seemed like reassurances he wasn't going to have a Baalke or Brandon in his life.
Hackett is very tight-lipped. Even folks on the regent level aren't getting every detail; Hackett prefers to keep people informed on a high level but keep details private so that things don't get screwed up. He's been impressive to everyone I've heard who has come in contact with him.
THE JETS ARE NOT IMPRESSED. Okay, Jets owner, that's cool.
Told today the Jets are unlikely landing spot for Jim Harbaugh. They interviewed him when they hired Rex. Woody wasn't impressed.
— Pete Thamel (@SIPeteThamel) December 23, 2014
With the Dolphins out and the Jets apparently not enthralled, NFL options appear to come down to the cheapskate Bears and basket-case Raiders, with the potential addition of the Falcons if they don't make the playoffs.
I THINK WE HAVE FORGOTTEN SOMETHING ABOUT THE RAIDERS. Hey, look, Football Scoop is bringing up something a lot of people seem to have forgotten when talk turns to Harbaugh with the Oakland Raiders:
If he were to leave for another NFL job, however, the 49ers would supposedly ask for "a king's ransom" in exchange for releasing him, as the potential for embarrassment is much higher if Harbaugh remains in the NFL, especially if it's with the Oakland Raiders.
Harbaugh is under contract. York and Baalke would be reviled in the Bay Area if Harbaugh went to the disaster zone that is the Raiders and turned them around, especially if the 49ers struggled. (They're already moving towards reviled if the comment sections of 49ers articles are any indication.) It is unlikely they are going to let that happen unless the Raiders pay an exorbitant fee in draft picks, which makes the Raiders job even sketchier.
Congratulations to FS for finally saying something reasonable about this search. It was something I mentioned on December second(!) in the same post bombing their ridiculous "Harbaugh is not a candidate and Michigan is struggling" post, but better three weeks late and after a pile of complete bollocks than never at all.
ROONEY RULIN'. Another thing that makes Michigan a good bet as a landing spot: if the 49ers do cut ties with Harbaugh within 48 hours of the season's end that heavily implies Michigan: NFL teams have to comply with the Rooney Rule, which might be tough when hypothetical black candidates feel they're wasting their time. They would have to figure out a trade and a contract. Michigan has a big head start, and can act quicker.
ACT LIKE A CLOWN, GET TREATED LIKE A CLOWN PART II. Greg Gabriel, the fringe NFL writer who called Michigan's search "embarrassing" on December 12th and followed that up with gems such as "just laughing at you" and "if you want to dream go to Disneyland" amongst a number of other tweets he's deleted, has thrown a hissy on the National Football Post.
My fondness for the school ended this week through no fault of the University, but rather their asinine fans.
Two weeks ago I tweeted that in all likelihood, Jim Harbaugh would not become the next head coach at Michigan. Two weeks ago that was a very true statement, as Harbaugh wanted to coach nowhere but in the NFL. That was reported in various places by some very credible people. Harbaugh was done with the college game and wanted to coach only in the professional ranks.
Soon after my tweet, I started receiving several threatening, vulgar and obscene tweets from Michigan fans. In simple words, they said I didn’t know what I was talking about and that my sources were worthless.
The few replies he got to his tweet include an assertion he's a senile idiot… and that's it. Behold the asinine Michigan fanbase.
— Matt (@UMich38) December 12, 2014
I get worse than that from random LSU fans without even talking about LSU. And of course Gabriel didn't know what he was talking about and his sources were useless. Meanwhile he approached the inherently unknowable fiasco that is a coaching search with a supremely unwarranted arrogance.
That's been par for the course for a bunch of supposed NFL insiders who have been cocky and wrong—bad combination—while the Michigan side of things has consistently said things like "Michigan is in this," not "Michigan is a lock" (until recently, as Harbaugh moves close enough to being a lock that even previously dismissive NFL people are admitting that it's probably happening).
There are ways to communicate your point of view without bringing the wrath of the internet down on you. Step one is not being an asshat, something Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport understand. Kawakami and this guy not so much.
MEANWHILE. Gabriel's sources remain useless. He asserts that the thing that makes Michigan an option is the money that's easily matched by NFL teams flush with cash and asserts that Harbaugh will be fired by the 49ers. More "heart in the NFL" stuff from people who promised up and down that Michigan was never happening.
PLAN B. I don't think we'll need one. Continue hearing that Dan Mullen is a strong possibility if things go pear-shaped. He may not be the #2 option outright, but he or Miles is the #1 guy they know would take the job. Depending on who you talk to, Miles is the #2 option or way down the board. I think it's the latter but can't be sure.
NO SEARCHBITS TOMORROW, YOU DEGENERATES. Probably.
Michigan won this game, I believe (source)
Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column
*[I failed to post the draft correctly yesterday and I wasn’t able to correct it while traveling. My apologies. None of this data should be dated much. Nebraska has not yet played Hawaii at the time of my submission early Tuesday morning EST – Alex]
Table of Contents:
Team’s don’t change much during conference play
Hopeful precedent? (Battle!)
Hoops (and not NBA hoops) over Christmas
Talkin’ bout the Shockers
Key B1G wins in the past week
Saturday was a bad day
A SPECIAL SHOUT-OUT TO MICHIGAN STATE
Best and worst losses thus far
Poll: which team is second-best in the B1G?
1. Teams don’t change much during conference play
In data provided to me by From the Barn’s Jonathan Foster, there’s generally insignificant differences between the Kenpom rank of a team after non-conference play and that same team’s rank at the end of the season. The data only covers the last four seasons, but a team is twice as likely to have a change from –19 < [rank] < +10 than it is to worsen by more than nineteen or improve by more than ten, rank-wise:
This bodes poorly for Michigan and similarly floundering teams – Pomeroy’s rankings attempt to assess the objective quality of a team (not its potential, nor how good its resume is) and, according to this data, right now, that metric – his “pythag” rating – is usually within range of how good a team winds up being over the course of the season. As the scatterplots below show, the highest change in ranking comes from very bad teams:
Click image to enlarge
Sample size caveats apply, but I’d hazard a guess that this group of teams is generally representative of an intuitive hypothesis: teams don’t became far better or far worse (statistically speaking) after December. Or perhaps better stated: teams don’t (or can’t) prove that they’re far better or far worse after December.
2. Hopeful precedent? (Battle!)
Foster gave me the conference-wide data from 2011-2014; in that time, only Penn State (2011) managed to accomplish something Michigan will find itself hoping to do – rise from roughly the 75th-best team in Kenpom to eventually make the NCAA Tournament.
That Penn State team’s non-conference season was quite similar to Michigan’s past few weeks. The Nittany Lions lost two home games – one to a mediocre Maryland outfit by 23 points, one to a dreadfully bad Maine team that finished ranked 209th in Kenpom. Additionally, Penn State lost road contests to Ole Miss and Virginia Tech, neither of which were particularly good squads. Their best win in non-conference play was a narrow home win over #60 Duquesne; they rode a 9-9 conference record, two wins over a great Wisconsin team, and three wins in the Big Ten Tournament to a bid as a ten-seed. The Big Ten was the best conference in the country that year.
Mid-season ranking data only goes back to 2011 on Pomeroy’s site. I checked from 2005-2010 and there were only a few potentially analogous situations: in 2007, Purdue lost two tough non-conference games and dropped a bad one (to #150 Indiana State on the road) and lost to #170 Minnesota to open Big Ten play – they recovered to be a nine-seed; in 2005, Minnesota lost to two top-20 outfits and lost at home to #97 Florida State in the span of less than a week – they finished non-conference play at 10-3 and were an eight-seed.
Penn State 2011 might be the best blueprint for Michigan to follow. It was Talor Battle’s senior year* and Jeff Brooks, Andrew Jones, and sophomore Tim Frazier formed a potent (by PSU standards) nucleus: they had a terrible non-conference season but were consistent enough in Big Ten play – winning the games they absolutely had to win – notched a few notable wins, both against Wisconsin, and did quite well in the Big Ten Tournament to sneak into the NCAA Tourney.
Since the conference is weaker now, I’d say Michigan might need 10 or 11 wins (and a Big Ten Tournament win), depending on who they win or lose to, to be right on the edge of the bubble. Right now, Pomeroy projects just 8 conference wins. Blerg.
In any case, improving to the point where the bubble is a legitimate discussion is objectively unlikely.
*Talor Battle was one of my favorite non-Michigan Big Ten players in recent memory. He was like a prelude to Trey Burke: undersized do-it-all point guard whose high usage was excused by a stellar assist rate. Trey was obviously better, but it was certainly something to watch Battle drag his teammates along and elevate their play in front of a seemingly indifferent PSU fanbase. Something impressive and tragic in that. Anyways, I digress.
[AFTER THE JUMP: … But Beilein? and other non-Michigan stuff, of course]
This seems in poor taste. I mean, the Cowboys? [Dustin Johnston/UMHoops]
TICK TOCK. Sam goes to 70% and says he'd be at 99% if San Francisco's season ended today. Joe Pequeno says it's Harbaugh barring one of them last minute change of heart things. Bacon says 85%, also citing last minute change of heart. Bacon also says that Michigan made a pass at Harbaugh last time, "but a weak one."
Heck, even Adam Schefter continued inching towards "it's happening," twice saying that "the pendulum has swung to Michigan" on ESPN's mid-day NFL shows on ESPN2.
WHY? Webb reports that Hackett was "in the Pacific Time Zone($)" yesterday, with the possibility of major movement today. Those Who Stay reported movement on the agent side of things, with Harbaugh/Dunn meeting at which things are just about hammered out but not quite signed. Clearly something happened yesterday to create another wave of IT'S HAPPENING, and that's a plausible reason.
DONE DEAL? I don't think it's quite that, but I think it's just about pen-to-paper time. Reports filtering down from the big baller donors certainly think it is done—we had one on the site yesterday that we had to scrub because the poster made an unwise decision to spill, and the inbox has a couple more. This is very much a situation in which the game of telephone would turn "it's about to be done" into "it's done," though.
WHEN? Still hearing that things won't be official until the 49ers are done. Michigan appears to be assembling a press conference on or around the 30th. That certainly implies they think it's done.
A CATCH? Did get a report that at least some people in the 49ers organization think the pendulum is swinging back to the NFL; hard to square that with everything else I've heard. FWIW; that would be a potential reason the NFL insider types are so dismissive.
WELL, THAT'S ALL OUT IN THE OPEN THEN. 49ers GM Trent Baalke was on the radio yesterday, and when asked about Harbaugh he confirmed that Michigan had reached out to the 49ers directly:
"I don't know that it's been offered to him. I don't know that it's been offered at all," Baalke said on his weekly segment on 95.7 The Game. "I haven't seen a report that the contract has been handed to him and he's mulling it over." …
Fox Sports reported Sunday that Michigan relayed its interest to the 49ers, and he reportedly told them he was undecided on his future.
"I think the University of Michigan, in reaching out, did handle it correctly," Baalke said. "As I look at it, guys, it's very simple: He's the head football coach of the San Francisco 49ers."
So that helps confirm the chatter that Michigan was trying to work out the details with the 49ers because they were so confident they'd locked down Harbaugh their attention was turning to details like extracting him from his contract. Somewhat odd that Baalke says he hasn't "seen a report" that he's been considering a contract when he is capable of walking into Harbaugh's office and asking, but maybe the two guys don't talk much anymore.
MAYBE IT'S ALL IN RUBLES. Sam says he's got an unconfirmed number($) for the assistant pool that is just about about on par with LSU and amongst the tops in the country. I am hearing some rumblings that Sam's weird suggestion (Mattison might stay on as a LB or DL coach with additional title frippery to be determined) is on point, which would explain some of that pool.
HOW NOT TO BACKTRACK. Adam Schefter has been walking his no-way stance back gradually, and that's fine. I think he got some bad information early, but he's reporting what he hears and moving away from Protect The Shield more than most other people in his profession.
On the other hand, you could pretend that you're defending Schefter when you opened your coverage of this coaching search with "Harbaugh turned Michigan down" and tripled-down on that assertion when it became clear it wasn't anywhere near true. If you guessed Scott Roussel was that guy, you get a cookie:
Guys complaining to me on twitter “Scheffer has changed his story on Harbaugh a lot”. Truth is facts change. We just report them
— FootballScoop Staff (@FootballScoop) December 23, 2014
HOW TO CORPO-TWITTER. Well done, whoever:
— Michigan Football (@umichfootball) December 23, 2014
#BUTTHOLE. Former Jack Harbaugh QB and Jim staff member Willie Taggart on the man:
"A lot of people think he's a butthole," Taggart says, matter-of-factly. "But he's not. Some people want things the easy way, sometimes people want others to bow down and just give in and do things the easy way. It's never like that with Jim.
"He's going to give it to you how he sees it. It's not to demean anyone, but it's how he sees it. He always does what he thinks is right. And, nine times out of 10, he is."
If Taggart doesn't make it at USF (he's gone 2-10 and 4-8 in his first two seasons) I wouldn't be surprised to see him join a hypothetical Michigan staff in the event of an opening.
CHRISTMAS SCHEDULE. Normally we take a week off around this time of year, but with Michigan's coaching search still ongoing I'll be around more. I'm going to get in a car right now and be in it for most of the rest of the day. I don't plan on posting anything the 24th or 25th unless it is literally happening. If there is enough stuff there may be a searchbits or two on the 26th and/or 27th.
The 28th is when things will start rolling in earnest as the 49ers finish up their season.
ETC.: Narduzzi the favorite at Pitt. John Harbaugh says some boilerplate stuff about his brother. Harbaugh with photoshopped bread? Okay. Wetzel on why getting rid of Harbaugh is a bad idea. Brian Dohn on possible contractual trip-ups.
I write this column every year: a plea for humans of the college football world to use clear language instead of the names they have for bowl games. Truthfully, a brand name for a bowl game communicates something, but think how much more accurately we could communicate if things like geographical location, history, traditions, and common, relatable experiences were more important than who pays the most.
I realize not everybody enjoys the ability to elegantly express ideas to other humans as much as I do, and that mercantile interests can be human interests as well. But since I started using language in my communication, I've experienced a 1000% improvement in comprehension, and I wanted to share that success story with you. Don't believe me? Here are some other humans who've benefited from this same extraordinary device:
: "Hello, I'm Steve, a relatable middle aged white man with the body, hairline, and lifestyle that other middle aged white men envy. My wife Janet and I are proud Bowling Green graduates and big fans of the Falcons. I wanted to get Janet a trip to BGSU's bowl game for Christmas, but when I triumphantly announced "We're going to the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl!" she was very confused. Then I discovered Talking Like a Human Being™, which taught me to tell Janet it's the "Camellia Bowl in Montgomery." Janet was thrilled, because the name communicated to her that we were going to a bowl game in Montgomery, and the flower association made it memorable!"
: "I'm Lewis, a non-threatening yet sexy young African-American businessman with perfect skin. My in-laws are coming to visit our tasteful suburban Atlanta home over Christmas, but they asked me to drive them to the airport the afternoon of December 31st. When I tried to explain that we would have to leave very early because of "Chick-fil-A Bowl" traffic, they thought I meant the South is just that insane over a fast food restaurant. But when I called it the "Peach Bowl," suddenly they could recognize the name of a big traditional football game that they've heard about since the late 1960s, and even offered to order a taxi so that I could stay home and watch it! Thanks, Talking Like a Human Being™!"
: "I'm Krista, a cute and friendly Minnesota undergrad. Men find me very attractive in an approachable way, and women want to be my friend because they wish they looked this good while rocking a knit scarf, high wool socks, and "" stickers on my cheeks. I was so totally stoked by my Gophers' great season, but when I told my girls we were going to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl they were like "that's a crappy one" because until recently that meant the old Copper Bowl. So then I said it was "the old Capital One Bowl," but then they got even more confused because that's now the name of the Orange Bowl—you know, the BCS bowl in Miami that Big East teams used to go to. Then I discovered Talking Like a Human Being™. And once I said "Citrus Bowl" my friends knew that meant the bowl that 2nd place Big Ten teams go to, and they were more excited than that one time our sorority went ice skating with Goldy!"
: "I'm Batman. Specifically, I'm Batman from that 1990s Tim Burton movie with Jack Nicholson that hits all the nerd-nostalgia buttons for men between 25 and 40. When I say 'I'm Batman', people know that I'm Batman, because I've been calling myself Batman since 1939. Could you imagine if I was like: 'I'm Batman, presented by Vizio?' I'm sure I could make some money by doing that but to be honest I'm already filthy rich, and while Alfred assures me I could always use more money, I feel like the incremental revenue wouldn't be worth cheapening 75 years worth of brand equity. So I turned them down and went with Talking Like a Human Being™ instead. Because I'm Batman!"
[After the jump: bowl games in a human language, bowl logos without sponsors on them, and discussion on the whole title sponsorship business]
LET THE BODIES HIT THE FLOOR
Michigan easily dispatched an overmatched Coppin State squad to snap their four-game losing streak, coasting to a 16-point victory that wasn't as close as the score would indicate. The above GIF is more representative.
Ricky Doyle led the team with a career-high 16 points, going 6/7 from the field; he could've had even more if not for a 4/9 mark from the free-throw line. Derrick Walton recorded a career high in assists for the second straight year against CSU, dishing out nine in addition to scoring nine points.
Zak Irvin hit 3/7 three-pointers on his way to 13 points while hauling in seven boards. Caris LeVert did solid work on the glass as well, pulling down eight rebounds on top of his eight points. Kam Chatman added nine points, Mark Donnal eight, and the bench got plenty of run.
That included Austin Hatch, who tallied his first official career point at the line after getting fouled on a three-pointer that he very nearly sunk. After Hatch narrowly missed another opportunity from the corner, John Beilein called timeout to sub him out and allow the crowd a chance to give him a standing ovation. It was quite a moment to cap off a much-needed win.
So after several weeks and therapy I think we're ready to dispassionately regard things of a college football nature without the hurting. This is good because we know things about college football, and can use that knowledge for good, or you know, for picking fantasy teams.
This week we're congregating in the college football $20k mini cash bowl. It's a $2 entry fee with $20k in prizes, and a lot of space left. I liked it because the bowl lineup has a lot of teams I pay attention to, including all the New Years Day games.
Everyone has their tricks for drafting; I like to bring in advanced stats to know things like are both teams going to be playing at a high tempo (so more plays for my draftees) and if his opponent is an outlier against the relevant element (run/pass) of offense. I'll share my table for the pool of draftable players in this game, and highlight outliers (top 20 or bottom 30):
|Matchup||Pass Def Rk||Rush Def Rk||Plays/Min (rk)|
|Game||Tm1||Tm 2||Tm1||Tm 2||Tm1||Tm2|
|Florida St. vs. Oregon||58||33||50||42||2.37 (73)||2.74 (11)|
|Washington vs. Oklahoma St.||55||53||47||41||2.51 (41)||2.53 (36)|
|Iowa vs. Tennessee||65||13||24||22||2.33 (77)||2.5 (42)|
|Kansas St. vs. UCLA||51||23||27||54||2.08 (113)||2.62 (25)|
|Ohio St. vs. Alabama||10||26||37||1||2.33 (81)||2.28 (90)|
|Houston vs. Pittsburgh||93||76||111||93||2.45 (50)||2.07 (116)|
|Missouri vs. Minnesota||22||43||11||30||2.37 (70)||2.08 (112)|
|Wisconsin vs. Auburn||31||47||29||18||2.03 (123)||2.42 (56)|
I got tempo by dividing the total number of offensive plays by time of possession from NCAA's stats (saving the greater study for an offseason column). Rankings are from Football Outsiders' S&P+. From there you have to eyeball—a low tempo doesn't mean skip the guy and a bad rush defense doesn't mean you have to take that RB, but it does say if you're looking at spending $11k of your salary pool on Melvin Gordon it's good to know that Auburn has a pretty good rush D. Wisconsin's slow pace is Wisconsin's slow pace; Auburn's average pace suggests Gordon will get the usual amount of touches.
-$20,000 prize pool.
- First place wins $2,000
- $2 entry fee (FREE with first deposit).
- Top 2,300 win money guaranteed
- Starts on Thursday, January 1st at 12:00 PM EST
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 players
- Roster Format: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 Flex
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600