i like 'em both
in percentages (or, better yet, in ± with a baseline of 5), how much is Scott Shafer's departure reflective of a poor fit as DC (and thus a tacit admission by Rodriguez that he was an unsatisfactory hire) vs. being indicative of the first the first flowering of potential panic by Rodriguez in the face of booster/fan/media displeasure (a la Auburn & Tony Franklin, as you've illustrated) on a scale that he was unprepared for. Please discuss.
Ninety percent "poor fit as DC." The Purdue game, which came when the team was 2-6 and had given up 35 points in three of the last four games, with the other game against Toledo, seemed like a breaking point. Michigan installed the 3-3-5, saw it backfire spectacularly, and from there the rift had formed and it was not repaired.
I put very little credence in the idea that coaches give half, or even a tenth, of a damn about what's said about them in the media or amongst fans. That's only relevant at the point where you get dragged into the athletic director's office and he says "some assistants go or you do." Michigan is a school that gave Tommy Amaker six years and would have let Lloyd Carr return for as long as he pleased no matter what happened against Ohio State: ultimatums did not happen.
Brian, you've probably already addressed this, but if 2005 was the Year of Infinite Pain, what was 2008?
I'm partial to the construction adopted by Auburn fans: 2008=DEATH.
Various questions on recruiting, all from one email:
How does the amount of verbal decommits stack up to other programs? This has to be a somewhat common occurrence throughout the country?
How does the number of decommits this year compare to other years under Carr? Or is this more than UM is used to?
I realize every UM fan in the blogosphere overreacts & is shocked when a kid decommits, but don't you think the coaching staff rates each verbal commit differently? When Newsome committed, I hope the coaching staff had him as a "soft" commit & were not shocked when he dropped us? As opposed to say when a Thomas Gordon committed - they coaches would have to believe this is a rock solid commit. I would think the coaches know what kids are not yet 100%, even thought they gave a verbal & still need some recruiting.sadf
Don't some verbal commitments nowadays constitute a "leader in the clubhouse" for a lot of kids?
- Newsome: not at all. Michigan replaced Newsome with an equivalent prospect in Tate Forcier. (Newsome started the recruiting cycle ranked way high but has dropped steadily since; he didn't even start for Hargrave this year.)
- Fera: little. Michigan replaced Fera with a near-equivalent in Brendan Gibbons. Also: kickers are crapshoots.
- Barnes: little. Guy is a three-star who is probably going to end up at Purdue for lack of better offers. Michigan can get a dozen of those kinds of players.
- McNeal: considerable. McNeal is a top-100 talent to everyone and Michigan is not going to replace that in this class unless they snake oil some kid unexpectedly.
- Campbell: either not at all or enormously, depending on whether he recommits.
Overall: there's a ding from the McNeal departure and if Campbell doesn't rejoin the fold it'll be a huge disappointment; other than that the decommit hullaballoo is a lot of hype with little impact.
Programming note. The blog takes its annual week off for Christmas starting Tuesday. Depending on the travel schedule—ie, the weather—Monday will either see full posting or a somewhat abbreviated day when I throw up a recruiting thing and maybe a UV sort of thing at 8AM before getting on the road. Tune in to find out.
After that, the blog will be off until the 30th, at which point I'll preview Michigan's New Year's Day Bowl— wait. What? Seriously!??!?
Hello destructor. Why yes, that's one Lamarr Woodley on the cover of Sports Illustrated:
Also there is Elvis.
It's a scam. Dan Wetzel and Yahoo have a killer article on the giant flaming scam that bowl games are for college football teams:
The Sugar Bowl’s total revenue was $12.9 million in 2006 according to tax documents. Its chief expense is paying $6 million into a payout pool for BCS teams. The rest of the money for teams comes from a cut of television and sponsorship revenue.
Wetzel later cites numbers that the ACC and SEC championship games cost from 1-2 million dollars, so the gap between 8 million and 12.9 million—about five million dollars, in case Andy Katzenmoyer is reading this—is being thrown away by college football because they let third parties run their postseason.
For the last time. The NCAA instituted some new clock rules in the offseason and they duly chopped twelve minutes and 6% of plays from every game so that we could get more awesome updates on awesome NASCAR which is awesome. In the preseason there was considerable debate about just how many plays would be wiped away by the institution of an NFL-style 40 second clock. Dr. Saturday, then SMQ, said "some"; I said "none," and so forth and so on.
I was wrong to gullibly believe that the clock rules wouldn't actually chop time off the game, but the 40 second clock probably wasn't the main culprit. The main culprit was the change in the out of bounds rule, which was projected to cut about five plays out of every game. The net loss in plays this year…
G Plays/G Time/G Pts/G
2005 717 140.71 3:21 52.61
2006 792 127.53 3:07 47.53
2007 792 143.42 3:23 55.37
2008 770 134.73 3:11 52.78
…is about seven if you take the average of the two "normal" years (2005 and 2007). The difference is almost entirely the fault of the OOB change.
If they don't repeal that, my suggested prescription for keeping your precious commercials but not hacking out plays we pay more and more to see: reduce the playclock from 40 seconds to, say, 36. Or 35. Whatever. Cut out dead time wherein we're lovingly surveying the craters of Dave Wannstache's ancient acne or going WOO LET'S PRETEND WE KNOW ABOUT NASCAR.
"Neutral site" indeed. Here's a terrible decision:
The University of Michigan baseball team will defend its 2008 Big Ten Tournament title in Columbus, Ohio, as the conference office and Greater Columbus Sports Commission announced today (Thursday, Dec.18) that Huntington Park, the home of the Triple-A Columbus Clippers, will serve as the host site for the 2009 Big Ten Baseball Tournament. The event will mark the Big Ten's first neutral-site baseball tournament since 1994.
Jesus H. Christ. "Neutral site" != Columbus, Ohio. The NCAA hockey tournament has been plagued by this sort of thinking too. Guys, get over yourselves. You're college hockey and college baseball, and not even like good draft-pick-laden southern college baseball. No one is going to drive a million hours to see your team play, especially if it's in Columbus freaking Ohio. After the game you can see the beer can statue of Woody Hayes! Look, it's punching Jesus!
The net result of this is to strip the regular season champion of the one small benefit they gathered from, you know, winning the freaking conference and bestow that benefit on Ohio State. And even if you really insisted on making it a "neutral site" there are a thousand minor league ballparks across the Midwest that would actually be, you know, neutral.
Unless you know you can sell out a random "neutral" site, all tournaments/regionals should be on someone's home court/ice/field. It gives players a greater motivation to perform during the regular season and prevents embarrassingly empty stadiums when, say, Ohio State finishes fourth in the Big Ten and bombs out in two games.
Adios, Cronin. Ben Cronin will redshirt, as expected:
But what makes the most sense now is to redshirt him. I believe his window ends just about now, this time. Scheduling the surgery is a part of that. Nothing conclusive, but I do think you’ll hear something as we flip it (past the 1/3 mark of the season), and have to make a decision.
Also, Beilein's vertigo is improving and he may be on the sidelines for the Oakland game.
Steve Kampfer takes his status as a Wolverine to heart, albeit in this case its the variety with an adamantium skeleton:
Junior defenseman Steve Kampfer appears set to play in the GLI, Berenson said last Friday, and he'd likely be paired with Tristin Llewellyn or Chad Langlais. The tournament would be Kampfer's first games since suffering a fractured skull and other injuries during an alleged on-campus assault by suspended Michigan football player Mike Milano on Oct. 12.
"If we can continue in the direction we're going and there's no setbacks, I think he'll play," Berenson said.
With Brandon Burlon and Greg Pateryn playing well and Matt Rust and Aaron Palushaj off at the WJC, might we see a (possibly temporary) return of Chris Summers to forward? I guess it's a matter of whether you'd rather scratch Pateryn or someone of the Lebler/Glendening/Fardig ilk.
In any case, the next few games will be critical for Michigan's season and getting one of their top three defensemen back on the ice should be a great help.
Oh and also… what is going on at State?
Defenseman Ryan Turek was released from the team for failing to meet the expectations of the team. Turek's lack of success is pretty disappointing. He was a 4th round draft pick of the St. Louis Blues--incidentally, drafted in the same round by the same team as Travis Erstad, who is now playing D-3 hockey. Turek was also among the first group of "early commits" to choose a school years in advance of actually enrolling in college.
Also departing the team for juniors is an overmatched freshman who should return as a sophomore next season. Comley's going to have a hell of a hole to dig out of next year. Lerg and (likely) Jeff Petry depart, and there doesn't appear to be a ton of help on the way. This might be the beginning of the end for Comley.
Ticket deal. Hey, kids, if you're wandering around without basketball tickets for early January the athletic department has a deal for you: buy a $10 general admission ticket to either the Wisconsin (Dec 31) or Illinois (Jan 4) game and get a free one to the Ohio State (Jan 17) game.
Wunder Boner. I present this as a gift to our friends at the RCMB. A certain hat in this commercial will make it a staple of WalMart Wolverine threads for years:
You can show your appreciation by losing next year's football game. Thanks in advance.
Obsolete. I was about to mention this line in a Tom Deinhart article on coaching changes…
Don't be shocked if Michigan makes a change at defensive coordinator.
…when someone IMed me saying that Shafer was outtta heeeeere. But there are a couple interesting notes in it anyway:
EMU wants to hire a coach by Christmas
Word is Eastern Michigan would like to hire a coach by Christmas. The names floating around are Notre Dame defensive coordinator Corwin Brown, Grand Valley State (Mich.) coach Chuck Martin, Iowa receivers coach Erik Campbell, New Orleans Saints tight ends coach Terry Malone, Michigan running backs coach Fred Jackson and Louisville defensive coordinator Ron English.
All have University of Michigan ties except Martin.
That's what you get when you bring Lloyd on as a consultant, I guess. EMU is a death job so I seriously doubt someone like Brown or English—young up-and-coming sorts—would put their necks on the line for three years of failure, but Campbell and Jackson may never get another shot at a head job. Losing Jackson might ding recruiting—his son, of course, is a 2010 commit.
Also there is this on ND:
Charlie Weis survived at Notre Dame, but his staff may be shaken up a bit. Among those who could be gone are offensive coordinator Mike Haywood, defensive line coach Jappy Oliver and offensive line coach John Latina. Strength and conditioning coach Ruben Mendoza also may be gone.
I can't believe Latina still has a job after the disaster of a 2007 season, let alone this year.
And this on Clemson's DC search:
Chavis and Rhoads would be prominent names if Michigan decides to go outside the program for the DC hire.
Chizik would offer little insight to the makeup of his staff. The Birmingham News reported Monday he told Tuberville's coaches at a staff meeting Sunday night that they should seek jobs elsewhere. One source close to Chizik said, after that meeting, he talked to defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads and linebackers coach James Willis about staying.
The post linked above also mentions that if Willis does decide to bolt he would be a tempting target for another SEC team:
Did I mention that Auburn's linebacker coach James Willis is probably available to help some lucky SEC school's LB corps play much better?
If Hopson is the guy at DC, Michigan will be looking for a linebackers coach (or, I guess, a secondary coach—current DL coach Bruce Tall has coached the secondary, LBs, and the DL in his career). Willis has the onfield chops and was reputed to be one of Auburn's better recruiting assistants; he's got a lot of Southern ties that Rodriguez treasures.
Etc.: Evidently Minnesota's recruiting class is quite a bit better than the average Glen Mason effort; mea culpa.
The recent happenings at Auburn have left a few of their commits looking for possible new homes. Louisiana receiver Travante Stallworth is still committed to Auburn, but will be taking visits to both Michigan and South Carolina. He's 5' 10" 180 pounds, and runs a 4.4 40. He's a dual threat quarterback for his high school, and has been recruited as a wide receiver by every school but one. Take a look at which school that is after Stallworth's highlight video:
TOM: So are you still committed to Auburn, since you’re now looking at other schools?
TRAVANTE: Yes sir, I’m still committed to Auburn.
TOM: When did you decide you wanted to start looking around?
TRAVANTE: I decided last weekend to take visits, when I found out who the new coach was. I just wanted to look at new schools, and make sure I was still in the best place.
TOM: Was that the main reason, or was there anything else?
TRAVANTE: Well, they fired the staff too, and I was real close to the TE/WR coach. I haven’t talked to anybody from Auburn since. My recruiting coordinator got fired, but he called me yesterday. That’s the only person I’ve talked to.
TOM: So what schools are you most interested in right now?
TRAVANTE: I’m highly interested in Michigan, I’m real interested in South Carolina, and I’m kind of interested in TCU.
TOM: Tell me what it is about those schools that stand out to you.
TRAVANTE: With Michigan there’s so much history. My coach called me two weeks ago and said Michigan is interested, and my eyes got big, because not everyone gets that opportunity. I already know what kind of offense they run, and it’s the same offense we run in high school. With South Carolina it’s still in the south, and kind of close to home. They also said I’ll get a chance to play early. Steve Spurrier is a great coach, and his son is the offensive coordinator. In their offense, they throw the ball a lot, so I like that.
TOM: What position are you being recruited at?
TRAVANTE: Everyone is recruiting me as a wide receiver, and Michigan said I can try quarterback if I want.
TOM: Are you going to make an announcement if you decide to choose schools?
TRAVANTE: I’m just trying to wait and see how everything goes, I’ll probably just wait until signing date to see where I’m going to go.
TOM: What if you go to one of these visits, and it blows you away, do you think you’ll make a decision on the spot?
TRAVANTE: Yea, if it blows me away, then yea I’ll make a decision right there. My mom is coming with me on the visits, so she’ll be there to help.
TOM: I’ve seen your highlight tape, and you look good, what do you think the reason some schools are coming onto you late?
TRAVANTE: I don’t know why they came on late. Michigan is just looking for more athletes. A lot of schools don’t have a lot of time to talk during the season, so I understand. I think my commitment had something to do with it too.
TOM: What were the reasons that you originally committed to Auburn?
TRAVANTE: I chose Auburn because it was close to home, my dad is in the military and stationed 30 minutes away. I also have family in Florida, and the last thing was the offense they were running.
TOM: You’ve mentioned a couple times about distance, and the south. Will that play into your decision?
TRAVANTE: No, distance won’t play in to it. I’m a military kid, so I’ve been moving a lot. My other relatives can watch me if I choose Michigan because they’re always on TV.
TOM: What do you say to coaches when they ask you what you bring to the table?
TRAVANTE: I’m a great kid, and I don’t get in trouble. I focus on my school work. I’m not going to be out worked on the field. My coach always tells us not to get out worked. I just want to be the best that I can be, and learn as much as I can.
TOM: What other teammates do you have that are going through the recruiting process as well?
TRAVANTE: Our running back, Michael Ford, he’s committed to LSU. Our safety is committed to Louisiana Tech. We have a LB/DL going to Grambling, and we’re trying to get another wide receiver and corner back to go somewhere. I introduce all the coaches to most of the people I play with, we’re all close so it would be nice to have someone come with me where ever I go.
TOM: When is your Michigan visit, and what are you looking for on these trips?
TRAVANTE: January 9th is the date to Michigan. I’m real high on facilities, and I already know Michigan has great facilities. I want a great degree in case football doesn’t work out. Just how the fan base is, and the people there. I want to play early too, so that will factor in as well.
TOM: A question I’ve been asking a lot of recruits is about Michigan’s losing season. How did that affect you?
TRAVANTE: The losing doesn’t affect me, because Coach Rodriguez is a great coach, and I know how fast he can turn things around. They’re trying to get their players real quick, and once he does they’re going to be real good.
WOTS is that yesterday's post on potential defensive coordinators is for naught and we are most likely looking at an internal hire: Jay Hopson, the linebackers coach and former Southern Miss defensive coordinator.
When it looked like Hopson was destined for the DC job last year I scoured Sunday Morning Quarterback for any information the internet's most prominent Southern Miss fan had provided on his defensive coordinator and assembled the results in "Jay Hopson Dissected." I also fired off an email to Matt Hinton himself, asking him for a take. By the time I got a reply Hopson was in, but as the linebackers coach, and the reply was no longer relevant.
Now it is, and I present to you Hinton's take on Hopson. Warning: it is not puppy dog tails. I'll let this stand on its own; further commentary in a separate post. Before we get to the nitty gritty, an update from Hinton:
Re: Hopson, I should add to that e-mail that over the last couple years I've come to really appreciate the talent on USM's killer defenses in 1999-2000, including Adalius Thomas and Patrick Surtain. The defenses immediately following those were anchored by a couple all-American linebackers, Rod Davis and Michael Boley, and a few other very good players. Hopson didn't have anyone of that caliber from 2005-07.
So, again, meh performance in the doldrum years of a coach heading out to pasture.
Hopson would make a lot more sense as a position coach at Michigan, as some of your commenters have noted. He’s young and didn’t distinguish himself in the job – his defenses occasionally looked good against some of the weaker teams in Conference USA, but I wouldn’t even read into the high finishes within the conference (first in scoring defense all three years of Hopson’s tenure, first or second all three years in almost every other relevant category) because USM is the only school in the league that still pretends to play a little defense, and certainly the only one that still played like it expected to win games with it. This year the “Nasty Bunch,” as the D was known in fatter times, allowed 24 points to Marshall, 34 to Central Florida, 29 to Memphis, 30 to UTEP and 31 in the disgraceful loss to Rice, the last game being the reason the entire staff is searching for work right now (though, to be as fair as possible about such a disaster, offensive turnovers were far more responsible).
It’s not fair to look at the outcomes against Tennessee, Florida, Virginia Tech, NC State and the like because of the talent deficit USM faces against those teams, although Southern Miss had a short stretch of better-than-respectable (if inconsistent) defensive success against much bigger schools in the late nineties, and the fact that we tasted the blood of annual top 10 national units in those years may have led to some unfair expectations towards the defense in the last few years - those teams had Adalius Thomas and Patrick Surtain, two future Pro Bowlers, and though there's been some excellent individual talent since, Hopson hasn’t even coached a player who’s landed a regular NFL roster spot (though current linebacker Gerald McRath will certainly change that in the next couple years). Again, though, USM has not consistently played well against C-USA offenses with comparable or lesser talent since well before Hopson was on board, and though his overall numbers were slightly worse than his predecessors’, he was just status quo. It’s putting it kindly to say his defenses in Hattiesburg were mediocre. Generally I’ll always associate him with underachieving teams, even if the defense was still always better than the wretched offense.
Michigan fans will not like this, but Hopson’s defenses seemed to suffer from complete paralysis, mental and physical, against offenses that require more discipline than baseline reading and reacting. The team is rarely on TV, and never against any quality opponent, so I don’t get to watch them week to week, but the few times USM has been on a midweek game the last three years have ranged from frustrating to embarrassing. I remember seething through a loss at Tulsa in 2006 because the Hurricane ran a dinky spread offense with no hint of a deep threat whatsoever, and Southern never adjusted to, looked prepared for or even aware of the existence of the possibility that Tulsa would keep running the same junior-high-basic read option play. Take this play from the 2006 C-USA Championship loss to Houston as a very extreme example of a trend against any kind of option – it’s not great quality, but watch the reaction of the safeties, #6 (walked up here like an OLB) and #15:
They react like they have never conceived of a very simple, old-fashioned triple option play. That game is another good example of the consistent failure to adjust, and to be content to sit in zones without much blitzing and refusal to put pressure on the dinky horizontal passing game teams like Houston run, instead letting them run for miles of yards after catch. This year, the loss to Cincinnati in the bowl appeared to be more of a talent issue (the speed that that happened is also disturbing, as USM owned Cincinnati in C-USA less than five years ago), because Ben Mauk had to make a lot of plays under pressure, but after some early problems he carved the Eagles up pretty easily. Boise State in September came out firing and doing whatever it wanted offensively from the first gun. Basically, I always felt Hopson’s defense were put on their heels easily, accepted trying to bend and not break and rarely tried to force offenses out of their comfort zone. But this could be more of a talent issue than I realize; USM has been very lean in the secondary and really struggled in man-to-man coverage when it wasn’t playing too soft. It’s hard to make the translation to Michigan’s players.
Schematically, USM’s base has always been a 4-3, but it’s also always shown a lot of variability – prior to Hopson, it was regularly in “organized chaos” mode, with two down linemen, sometimes one down lineman on passing downs, people hopping around and shifting irregularly before the snap and blitzes coming from god knows where. His units were very, very conservative by this standard. They were also regularly in the nickel, simply as a result of playing a lot of spread offenses in-conference. Most of the time, as you noted earlier from a previous post of mine, this was a three-down look, technically a 3-3-5 because one of the outside linebackers was a DB, but closer to a 3-4 in actuality – unlike the stack West Virginia ran under Rodriguez, which is an eight-man front with one safety deep and two up like linebackers (I think of it as a 3-5), Hopson’s 3-3-5 generally kept two safeties deep. It was much less effective against the run, but that apparently was the tradeoff he felt was necessary to protect the secondary. The numbers show a stronger pass rush than I remember in 2005 or 2007, but again, I only saw USM in person or on TV a handful of times in any of those years.