chance of bowl: 13.6%
1/7/2009 – Michigan 72, Indiana 66 – 12-3, 2-1 Big Ten
image via jcmcmann @ flickr
Maybe Assembly Hall does have some sort of weird voodoo hex power that it uses for evil whenever Michigan shows up. After all, the last time Michigan won at Indiana there were actual Fab Five members still on the floor.
But it's more likely Michigan fans were just handed a harsh dose of reality made barely palatable by a Laval Lucas-Perry three that caught the front iron only to bounce straight up and through. Moments before Michigan had been down six to the worst team in the Big Ten and were fortunate to be that close. Then Manny Harris launched an ill-advised three, one of eight on the night, that went in, and Lucas-Perry launched a desperate three, one of nine, that got a friendly roll, and overtime was a mélange of more deep chucks and many, many missed IU free throws. At the end of everything they were up six, somehow.
Don't ask me how. It got so bad at one juncture in the second half when back-to-back possessions ended in horrible contested threes at the end of the shot clock that I thought to myself "this looks like an Amaker team." (I then immediately crossed myself and said four Hail Marys in penance.)
At one point they had launched 27 threes and made six. By the end of the game they had chucked up a prodigious 40—to only 21 two-pointers!—and made twelve. If they weren't playing the basketball equivalent of this year's Michigan football team they would have lost by double digits.
You can play this off as a hiccup, I guess, like rough games against Eastern Michigan and Savannah State and a housing at the hands of Wisconsin, but, man, has it ever occurred to you that maybe Michigan's shocking leap forward was at least somewhat illusory, man?
No. No, that had probably not occurred to you, unless it had. This is the same point I was trying to make about Michigan State football last week: we've been damn lucky. I didn't want to bring this up because it seemed like an unnecessary, party-pooping move, but Ken Pomeroy hates us. It's nothing personal, I promise. But the following graph from Big Ten Geeks, which measures the difference between a team's Pomeroy Rank and its average rank according to voters, was assembled before Michigan failed to achieve even in the modest goal of outperforming Lipscomb at Assembly Hall:
Yea, verily, on a difficulty-adjusted per-possession basis Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Two stellar games against UCLA and Duke coupled with a nonconference schedule featuring a wide array of teams not merely bad but outright awful have obscured the game-in, game-out struggles of the team. How many times has the general opinion after a game been "well, they won, but they really need to play better in the future?" By my count, about six.
Things get grimmer still when you focus on the Big Ten, where Michigan is not dancing with the angels, or the committee:
See, this is why I didn't want to bring it up. I sound like a negative old crank. Michigan is 12-3 with its first tourney bid in a decade in its sights and I'm sitting here telling you to turn off the lights, turn down the music, and go to bed.
And there are, of course, many disclaimers to that go here. Kenpom ratings are not perfect, they don't predict particularly strongly, and you can quickly pick out a half dozen "but what about…?" results if you want to. However, I do think they reveal something box scores and win/loss doesn't, and what it reveals is scary for Michigan fans dreaming of an eight seed in March.
What I'm trying to get at is this: this team is still painfully young, and is not as good as their record. They were extremely fortunate to scrape by a couple of very poor teams and also fortunate to catch Duke on a day when they were ice-cold from outside. They've not lost a close game and have won four. Brace yourselves, because it's going to be bumpy. I'm telling myself this as much as anyone reading this. I caught myself checking out Bracketology this week and thinking to myself "only a nine seed?"
Only a nine seed? Who am I, Jay Jacobs? The only senior who did anything yesterday was CJ Lee, a walk-on. Underclassmen sucked up 73% of the minutes. There are two players taller than 6'5". With Cronin redshirting, Michigan is playing short four scholarships.
"Only a nine seed." Does Michael Douglas sit around thinking to himself "if only I could have hooked up with Scarlett Johannsson?"
Bullets of EXTREME REASON
- I freakin' knew I shouldn't have talked up Manny Harris, because he's fallen apart since the Big Ten season hit. Yeah, 17 points yesterday but a lot of those were end of game free throws. He was 4/12 with four TOs. He's shooting 33% and has an A:TO ratio of 10:12. In this game he took a whopping eight threes and just four two-pointers, which is at least reversed. If Harris takes twelve shots nine of them should be twos.
What happened? You could see the frustration building in the Wisconsin game and after the third time he drove the lane and got hacked with no call he started going nuts, driving wildly and forcing the issue. Similar things happened against Wisconsin, and then tonight he gave up and started chucking. Late in the game Harris got yanked for CJ Lee and the team's performance actually picked up.
I'm not sure what you do if you're Beilein other than jump down the ref's throat every time they miss a foul call on a Harris drive. Harris really needs a 8-10 foot pullup jumper, because without it you just pack the lane and wait for chaos.
- One thing Harris hasn't fallen off in is rebounding. Eleven against IU, the last a monster board that sealed the game after a turnover and comical blocking call brought Indiana within three.
- What happened to Shepherd? I don't get it. People say he wasn't performing offensively; the stats don't bear it out. Small sample size and all that, but Shepherd has a higher offensive rating with more usage than either Novak or Douglass. He's 20-30 from 2 and almost 70% of his shots are from there. In a game where Michigan couldn't or wouldn't go inside, his game could have been used.
- Sims was the only player with more than two two-point baskets; he was 7/11 from inside the arc.
- I agree with The Hoosier Report's take: "I would have rather [Indiana] lost by 20." Also, this is nice:
As I was going to say in my gracious post-game victory post, it's an odd sensation to have a 17 point home lead and yet fear that Michigan's coach might engineer a comeback. I didn't feel that way when Michigan was good, let alone the last 10 years.
That may say more about Indiana's team this year than Michigan's, but I'll take it.
- No, the picture above isn't from the game. You can tell because of Thad Matta. And it's at Crisler. And David Merritt's wearing #11—apparently he changed numbers, who knew? I usually try to find an appropriate image from the game itself but I couldn't find one that summed the game up very well. At least the opponent is wearing red.
This is actually Dylan's show, but we've gotten some requests for basketball liveblog/chat action so he's graciously agreed to let MGoBlog co-host. Gametime is 6:30; action here and there starts 15 minutes prior.
Background: Dylan's Indiana preview, the Hoosier Report's Michigan preview. Inside The Hall also has a competing liveblog if you want to see them get incensed about the exact opposite calls we get incensed about.
To the point: the BlogPoll is expanding its reach into college basketball and is now looking for voters. If you have a blog that meets these criteria…
- has existed for six months or more
- covers college basketball regularly (at least 3 posts a week, give or take, during the season)
- has 100+ hits per day
- is written by someone willing to fess up to having a favorite team
With a lot of the focus on the All American games, Michigan's newest quarterback has quietly made his way to Michigan. Tate Forcier arrived in Michigan today, and we spoke about what the future holds, and how he plans on getting himself, and the team on a winning track.
TOM: What are you most excited for on your way to Michigan?
TATE: Just getting started, it’s kind of hard because it’s different from San Diego. This is my new home, a new experience. I’m just going to have fun.
TOM: What’s the first thing Coach Rodriguez wants you to do football wise?
TATE: I’m supposed to meet with him tomorrow. I’m assuming he’s going to get me with Mike Barwis. I’ll be hurting the next day, but it will be good pain.
TOM: Have your brothers given you any advice on how to adjust, both to college life and to the speed of the game?
TATE: Both of them said it’s going to be different, but the first few days you’re going to think these guys are all amazing players. After a few practices it will start to slow down and you’ll learn what you can do and what you can’t do. They told me not to try to do too much, just take it one day at a time. Stay busy, and don’t ever catch yourself doing nothing.
TOM: Realistically, where do you want to be for spring ball? As far as knowing the playbook, weight training, and chemistry with the offense?
TATE: I want to satisfy the coaches. I want to be where they want me to be. I’m not sure the exact plans yet, but they’re not going to throw everything on me all at once. I’m just not going to rush it, that’s why I came out early, and just try to learn and have fun.
TOM: I read in another interview, you said you want to be like Colt McCoy. After that being said, is that who you would compare yourself to? Who do you think you see yourself really being like as a collegiate quarterback?
TATE: He’s nearly the same size as me; they don’t run a complete spread, but they run close to what Michigan does. When I watch all the college quarterbacks, he’s who I would describe myself as. He makes big plays, and he can run. I’m almost exactly like him.
TOM: Have you talked to any of the other offensive players yet, either current players or commits?
TATE: I have been talking to Willie Haulstead, and I’ve been trying to get him to commit. I’ve talked to him several times, it seems like it’s between Michigan and Florida State. What I’ve been saying to everyone is this is not any other school, this is Michigan. People ask me why I chose Michigan, and the first thing I say is because it’s Michigan. You can’t really ask for anything more than what’s here, it’s the best of everything.
TOM: Your teammate, Brennan Clay, is a Michigan target for next year. Is there anything you’ve said to him about joining you, or is there anything you’ll do in the future?
TATE: I’ve been working on him since day one. He’s getting a lot of attention, he just got offered by USC last week. I want what’s best for him, but I have a good feeling if he was going to come back east, this would be a school he could choose. He’s going to come out for spring ball, so hopefully I can convince him. I know he loves Coach Smith and Rodriguez, and he likes Michigan. Talking with those guys is like extended family, they’re just really cool guys, which helps.
TOM: I know everyone is expecting a lot out of you in your first year, how do you deal with the expectations and pressure that comes along with this experience?
TATE: I’ve watched a lot of freshman play, and Coach Smith talked to me about this. I’m not going to try to do too much. I’m going to manage the team, rather than try to make the big play and taking a sack. The seniors and juniors make the plays, and I’ll just keep moving the chains. Take it one week at a time.
TOM: You’re going to get every chance to compete for the starting job, but it’s not going to be handed to you, what are you going to do to ensure you are the starting quarterback?
TATE: I can’t even answer that, there’s so much I have to do. I don’t care who you are, you have to earn it. I need to learn the playbook; work with the receivers, there’s so much. I can’t answer that until maybe spring ball, because I don’t know how to answer it.
TOM: What were your thoughts and initial feelings when you heard that Shavodrick Beaver had changed his commitment to Tulsa?
TATE: Shavodrick, I told Coach Smith I knew it was going to come. I almost felt like he was just trying to wait me out, to see what I would do. I think sometimes kids make their choice for the wrong reasons, and then this ends up happening. Decommitting happens though, but this is Michigan, we should have no problem filling those spots, and we haven’t. As much as we would like to have those guys, we have found great replacements for them that are as good, if not better.
TOM: Have the coaches said anything to you about anything new they want to try, or anything on the offensive side that will change this year?
TATE: Coach Rodriguez says he’s going to be able to open up his offense more with me. With Threet and Sheridan you can’t really run the option with pro style quarterbacks. It’s hard to run the true spread without a dual threat quarterback. He’s going to have me running a lot. I just have to listen and learn.
TOM: Throughout college there’s going to be a lot of adversity. With not being selected to the All American games, and the star rankings you experienced a little already. How do you use that to your advantage?
TATE: That makes me want to prove myself, and nothing against the recruiting services, but the star system is just opinion, it’s not fact. I have a lot to prove, and I’m not sure why I wasn’t rated higher than I am just based on stats. But, I don’t really care what the recruiting services say; I care what the coaches say. I was recruited by Michigan, so that’s proof enough for me. I just want to show everyone a freshman can do it.
TOM: I know you’re not there yet, but what are the keys to success for Michigan this year? Is there anything the coaches have been emphasizing?
TATE: For the team, I need to get more involved to answer that. For myself, it all comes on me, no one’s going to do it for me. I need to study, get all the guys together for drills. I have to go to them, they can’t come to me. Understanding why the coaches have the plays built the way they do is huge.
TOM: So, let’s put a hypothetical out there, or a look into the possible future. Tate Forcier is the starting quarterback, and the Wolverines are about to take the field. Everyone looks to you as the leader, what’s the message you give? How do you command your offense?
TATE: Show confidence. I’m going to have the same swagger as I always have. The quarterback is the leader for a reason. Michigan saw something special in me, and I’ll project that to the team. I want to be the same confident kid that I’ve always been.
The Dear Leader has been on WTKA a couple times in the past few days, first with John U Bacon and then with Andy Evans. News has descended. Quotes that follow are very close but may be slightly off from what was said (in a superficial way, of course.)
It will exist, and will be at Michigan Stadium on April 11th. MGoBoarders are planning some sort of tailgate that will inevitably descend into a melee when a 14-year-old shows up and says "h1 evr1 whut u thnk bt 4cier"; sounds like a good time.
Most magnificent sex mullet gets a free copy of Hail To The Victors 2009, yo.
Not a whole lot, obviously, because Rodriguez can't mention anyone until they sign or are enrolled. He did say "the most you can have in a year is 25," but not mention the possibility of going to 27 or 28, which Michigan has the room to do because of the seven early enrollers.
"Never had this many" early enrollers, cited a Florida class with 7 or 8 a few years ago but gave the general impression
A "little bit of progress," but has spent most of his time on recruiting. Done research, talked to some guys. Floated the national coaches convention as a key opportunity to talk with people.
Andy Evans brings up Nick Holt's 700k DC salary, to which Rodriguez says "I didn't know that, geez" and says "we're nowhere near that, obviously." Boilerplate about Michigan opportunity follows.
Rodriguez is looking for the "right fit; the personality has to fit what we want." Chemistry amongst staff wanted—clear implication that Shafer just didn't get on with the other guys. "Whoever has the title of coordinator on defense isn't going run the defense himself… that's the #1 thing I'm looking for, someone to coordinate everyone's input."
Yeah, that Tony Franklin comparison is still looking pretty good.
Has "absolutely not" ruled out an internal hire, but "our schemes aren't going to be radically different from what they were last year," which follows up on his comment the day before saying they would be a 4-3 team with some odd front stuff sprinkled in.
Rodriguez went into more depth on the topic with Bacon:
“You can’t just be a 3-4 guy or a 4-3 guy. At West Virginia we ran a 3-3-5 base, which was a little different. We’ll maintain here the 4-3, 3-4 principle,” he insisted. “We did a lot of 3-4 stuff in our second- and third-down packages this year, and we’ll continue to do more four-man and odd front.
“I know what I want to do philosophically, but I don’t want to change everything because of what we have on our team and what we’ve recruited so far. Our full-time defensive coaches, Jay Hopson, Tony Gibson and Bruce Tall … I’ve coached with Bruce and Tony for several years, Jay this past year but I’ve known him for several years … all have been college coordinators, so they’ve got a lot of experience in the 4-3 and 3-4 packages. They get along great, they are good people and they are going to be involved in which direction we want to go.”
Sound like you can cease your panic about the 3-3-5, if you were one of those guys.
Obvious parallel etc etc etc.
"We're close" to filling the open date, but no names.
There conversation then went to Meyer and Stoops and stuff, both of whom Rodriguez is friends with and so forth and so on. One interesting bit in here was Rodriguez saying he doesn't get any negative recruiting when going up against either guy but "a lot of other schools do it."
Any interest in the NFL?
"This may seem crazy to people in West Virginia, but I've always taken the approach that you should look at each job as your last." Never coached in the NFL, a college guy, likes the 18-22 range (don't we all ZING!) as you watch the kids mature, etc.
There's no simple explanation for anything important any of us do. Rob Parker has been fired, and a nation says "what took so long?"
I actually met Parker once. One of the producers at WDIV's Sports Final Edition liked the blog and wanted to maybe have me on for a weekly segment that would break down a play or two in an attempt to explain why Michigan had won on Saturday and why State had lost. (Ah, the hubris of 2006.)
The segment never happened, but I did head down to the studio to do a test run. Said test run coincided with Parker's weekly segment. Like everyone else who's read a Parker column, I didn't think much of him, but he seemed like an exceptionally nice guy. Maybe he's not that bad, I thought.
Fifteen minutes later I was watching him declare that his "moles" were saying Mario Manningham would be suspended for the entire 2007 season, and all that went away. I actually had some killer inside info on the situation and knew that Manningham had been in the car when a traffic stop turned up some marijuana and vicodin. At worst Manningham would get a possession rap; as it turned out he was charged with absolutely nothing. Parker was taking a shred of a rumor and intentionally blowing it up into something sensational.
It's not like this was unusual. Parker's moles are a running joke around Detroit. Earlier this year he incorrectly identified State quarterback Kirk Cousins as a participant in the melee that laid up Spartan hockey player AJ Sturges. Dantonio duly blew up and, for once, it was justified. Parker has a track record.
So, congratulations, Detroit News. It only took you years of inane columns, weekly bouts of irresponsible, inaccurate rumormongering, and one jerk move at a press conference to get rid of Rob Parker. The courage overwhelms.
We build. We build. We build we build we build. Michigan's construction boom is such that the New York Times mentions it:
An army of ironworkers, masons, carpenters and laborers are swarming the campus of the University of Michigan these days, as the university undertakes a construction campaign budgeted at $2.5 billion, ranking it among the largest university building programs in the United States.
A dossier of projects follow: the biomedical center, the Ford School, the new business school, North Quad, and, yes, the stadium renovation. In context, the rumors of faculty OUTRAGE that Michigan was spending all of 10% of their construction campaign on a self-funding, overdue revamp of the football stadium seem a little silly, don't they?
A side note: that link comes courtesy the Ann Arbor Chronicle, a budding, professional, and transparent online news source that's an interesting look at what might pass for a local paper in a post-newspaper world. They've got some crowdsourcing going on—a twitter feed that aggregates readers' information about local traffic issues—a fairly robust set of local advertisers, and interesting content. Like, hey, did you know the TCF bank building on South U has the word "tit"—rumored to be a tribute to Michigan coeds—bricked into it?
Recursive hockey recruiting. Yost Built linked to the hockey recruiting bit from Friday and in doing so posted something I'll link here, which may break the internet. We'll see. The item is on the chances of forward commit Luke Moffatt donning the winged helmet, and it's nice:
The Kelowna Daily Courier had an article about some of the Kelowna Rockets prospects who are playing in the World Under 17s at the moment. If you'll recall, Luke Moffatt was drafted by the Rockets in the WHL Draft. Their Assistant GM said that this is as good of a US team as he's ever seen in that tournament. He's very complimentary of Moffatt, though he says it's a wait and see thing on if he'll end up in Kelowna.
I recently received a very positive email about the chances of him ending up in Maize and Blue. Things can change, but right now I'm not starting a Luke Moffatt DEFCON like I did with Jack Johnson. I like the odds of him ending up in a Michigan jersey.
Ver' nice. Insert disclaimer with mention of Jared Knight, an erstwhile Michigan commit now plying his trade in the OHL, here.
Come on. A message boarder pointed out this in Rosenberg's delicious fluffy num-num on Michigan State's Citrus loss. State has a fourth and five from Georgia's 39 and calls for a fake punt:
MSU coaches had studied Georgia film intently — 12 games’ worth of film in the interminable wait for the bowl. They knew the Bulldogs always spread their defense against a punt. Naturally, the coaches figured they could fake a punt and run up the middle for a first down.
And what happened when the Spartans lined up?
Georgia’s defense was bunched up in the middle of the field. The Bulldogs had apparently used their interminable wait for a bowl to tinker with their punt defense. Maddening.
Maddening! Except this is a punt on fourth-and-makeable from the opponent's 39. Every program in the country is in a punt safe there; Dantonio's fooling no one. It was an idiotic call and punished appropriately. Then, later, Dantonio punts on fourth and one from the Georgia 44. People keep falling all over themselves to praise Dantonio even when he displays a grasp of game theory Nixian in its incompetence.
I am annoyed, and unsurprised.
Very cool. UMHoops now has a man on the scene in Los Angeles, and said man has a video camera and the intent to scout Darius Morris. Dylan says "this isn’t exactly a highlight film," which it's not. It's actually more useful. Highlight films are just "this guy hit a three this guy hit a shot this guy hit a shot ooh dunk"; only Zack Gibson does nothing but put dunk on your face.*
Oops. ESPN's having a bunch of people make random predictions, because random predictions are incredibly valuable content. This one is particularly valuable:
4. Combined with 2008 QB signee Justin Feagin, the Michigan Wolverines will play two true freshmen in a QB rotation until one comes to the forefront and takes the reigns of Rich Rodriguez's spread offense. Shavodrick Beaver (Wichita Falls, Texas/Rider) and Tate Forcier (San Diego/Scripps Ranch) will battle with Feagin.
Tate Forcier is apparently a slot receiver at Tulsa now. (Update: the Beaver mention has been excised.)
*(HT: Club Trillion, which is the only good thing to come out of Ohio State ever.)