It turned out to be a beautiful day. Wisconsin tickets were going for about $40 under face outside the stadium (and at our tailgate), so like $60 to $80. They hung around face online until it was too late to sell there. That’s probably as high as it will get in Ann Arbor. As for away from Ann Arbor, well…
NOW ENTERING THE ROAD ZONE
Supply and demand drive a market, and when the road team travels as well as Michigan that drives up demand, since most of those away fans have to get a home fan who already decided to buy a ticket to give that up. Doing so means risking the chance to see THE GREAT RIVAL taken down before you, and risking the shame of Staudt on Sports callers (at 1:25):
That’s why Michigan State ($231) and Ohio State ($349) tickets are off their rockers right now. Those fans who are selling are those who bought expecting to sell them. With MSU I wouldn’t buy until the Friday before, when a big market that was holding back decides selling to Michigan for $180 is worth the shame. For Ohio State, well, the only thing that can change the price of a ticket to Football Armageddon II is if it doesn’t happen, which is still a possibility.
Rutgers and Iowa on the other hand, well, this is from yesterday:
Not knowing a game time froze the marketplace last night. Now that it appears the hurricane won’t come north, they’ve picked up a bit again. Demorest informed me that he’s on a flight with all Michigan fans, and most already have their tickets, and if a lot of the Michigan fans already made their move that bodes well for those who haven’t yet. Rutgers fans aren’t exactly the most realistic out there, but enough of them must be to help #maizethestripe on the 50% chance that this doesn’t happen:
THINGS IN THE FUTURE
|@RU||$125||$139||$118||$90||$82||$75||tomorrow||M fans who flew bought early|
|ILL(HC)||$85||$85||$100||$108||$104||$95||nxt week||Illini probably not coming, so when cancellations happen you win.|
|@MSU||$225||$268||$256||$234||$231||$231||wait.||Market just started moving.|
|MD||$65||$54||$70||$57||$70||$60||at game||Went up with Purdue slaughter. Bet on them being face-ish.|
|@Iowa||$85||$151||$195||$189||$145||$140||wait.||But start looking and go at $110 if you're committed to going.|
|IU||$65||$40||$55||$57||$55||$55||now.||Cheap ones are going. Yes I'm still bullish on the hoosiers|
|@OSU||$250||$282||$275||$311||$349||$311||wait.||Good time to sell though.|
No: Hi, brother who didn’t get into Michigan. We should go to the Michigan-Michigan State game together. Oh yeah both teams are doing well, should be a great fight; you know Dantonio. Do you know anyone…you do! Great.
Yes: Hi, Sparty. We’re gonna kick your [tight end]s this year. Lol O’Connor sucks. Sure I’ll put my money where my mouth is; whoever loses has to pay for the tickets, deal?
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
Ok this one’s a find:
Front row, 10 yard line for senior day.
[ed-Seth: Thanks again to Matt Gase, Michigan grad and CEO of Eat Well Embrace Life, for contributing the chips and hummus and pop to our tailgate last week:
— Seth M. Fisher (@Misopogon) October 1, 2016
If Joe ever lets me do a recipe I’ll share the details, but this week I sautéed beef tips, mushrooms, onions, garlic and peppers, put them in a bowl with half a tub of the yellow lentil hummus, and then cut a pita into wedges we used to scoop it. Unbelievably good!]
[Joe is new at this so go easy on him despite his un-American use of vertical framing]
When I think of Rutgers, I think of tow things. First off, the greatness of The Sopranos. Man, I miss that show! Did Tony get it in the end or did he live happily ever after? The second thing is the pizza. I love brick oven, thin crust pizza. Is that just a New York thing or a New Jersey thing as well? Anyway, I’ve been hankerin’ for a thin crust pie and this week is a perfect time to toss one on the stone and use up some of my leftover smoked meats for toppings.
- Pizza Dough – Store bought or Pizza shop
- BBQ Sauce – Lane’s “Kinda Sweet” Sauce
- Chopped or Pulled Brisket or Barbacoa from last week
- Mozzarella Cheese or Mozzarella and cheddar mix
- Corn Meal or Semolina Flour
[After the JUMP: Fun for the whole tailgate]
|WHERE||Cable Subscribers Stadium
October 8th, 2016
|THE LINE||Michigan –29.5|
|WEATHER||overcast, mid 60s
slight chance of rain
HAHAHAHA!!!! Now there are 'R's all over your field! Now you have to pick them up! The Era of Rutgers is at hand! pic.twitter.com/h0ruuAQuvV
— Mr. Dubs (@rockydubs85) June 8, 2016
Rutgers has been hammered 48-13 by Washington and 58-0 by OSU this year. The beatings will continue even if they managed to hang close with Iowa.
Run Offense vs Rutgers
Hamilton: now DT sized. Still very good.
This is a spot at which it's difficult to reconcile PFF's grading and Bill Connelly's fancystats with regular old numbers. Run defense is a relative strong point for the Cable Subscribers—38th in S&P+—for reasons that are obscure. They did hold Washington to three yards a carry in the opener. Unfortunately for them, things have gotten steadily worse since: 3.9 YPC for Howard, 5.2 for New Mexico, 5.1 for Iowa, and finally 7.7 for Ohio State. At this rate they'll be giving up 15 yards a carry by the end of the season. They're 13th in the Big Ten in YPA allowed, one one-hundredth of a yard in front of Purdue.
Meanwhile, Ace points out that the Washington stats are deceiving:
Washington put up 24 points in the first quarter, added a kickoff return touchdown in the second, and basically closed up shop—their two second-half scores were on punt and interception returns. While the Huskies were able to throw at will—an even ten yards per attempt—they managed only 100 yards on 28 non-sack carries.
So the S&P number has some explaining to do.
Anyway: PFF likes their defensive line quite a bit. Darius Hamilton, their star DE/DT, is still around. He's grading out as a plus player against both run and pass, very much so on the ground. They rotate seven defensive linemen even after DE Quanzell Lambert got knocked out for the year. PFF thinks three of them are good to very good and one is about average; even if the other three guys aren't so great this is better than you'd expect for a team that's struggled so much in plain old yards per carry.
By way of explanation, PFF hammers all three starting linebackers. Trevor Morris, Deonte Roberts, and Greg Jones all carry significantly negative grades; they're positive in coverage, generally, and bad to very bad on the ground. No one on this defense touches the astoundingly poor grades for the offense, but nonetheless that LB level is a major liability and one Michigan is well-suited to exploit with their various misdirection plays. Compounding matters was a helmet-to-helmet hit Jones took from Morris last week. He is unlikely to play.
Hamilton will pose problems for the interior of the line. He is good enough to disrupt plays on his own, and he's apparently surrounded by some other guys who can play a bit. While this figures to be a walkover, there's a significant chance the ground game looks iffy, at least until someone pops through the line and nobody's there to clean up. Could be a day where a bunch of disappointing gains are offset by multiple romps for 30+ yards.
KEY MATCHUP: WHOEVER THE NEW GUY IS versus A SENSE OF RISING PANIC. Whether it's Kugler or Bushell-Beatty who draws into the lineup all eyes will be on him in an attempt to discover how boned we are thanks to the Newsome injury.
[Hit THE JUMP for OH MAN THIS LINE against MICHIGAN'S DL is a THING I SAY EVERY WEEK NOW]
Michigan’s win over Wisconsin wasn’t put away until Jourdan Lewis executed one of the more dramatic and insanely athletic interceptions most of us will ever see, but the stats show that it should have been over sooner. That won’t come as a shock—if you watched you’re probably thinking of the missed field goals right now—but it does reinforce how good Michigan’s defense is.
Even the most basic stats hint heavily at the defense’s dominance. Wisconsin only ran 53 plays for a paltry 154 yards, or 2.91 yards per play. Michigan’s offense fared far better, running 80 plays for 339 yards, or 4.24 per play. As Jedd Fisch noted this week, no team has crested 330 yards of offense against Wisconsin since the 2015 Alabama game. Not a bad yardage total against a defense that’s still ranked fifth in S&P+.
It’s not all sunshine and roses (or lipstick-shaped trophies), though. Michigan had six scoring opportunities to Wisconsin’s three, but both walked away with 2.33 points per scoring opportunity. Michigan was averaging 6.3 points per trip inside the 40; drives bogging down and missed field goals knocked the points per scoring opportunity number down to below a field goal for the game.
We don’t yet know whether the missed field goals were an aberration or the new, hand-over-the-eyes, college-kickery normal, but it’s relatively clear that Michigan’s offense on the whole did well against one of the best defenses in the nation. Michigan’s offensive Success Rate was 40%, which must have been like a walk in the park for Speight and co. compared to Wisconsin’s offense’s 21%. Wisconsin’s defense is superb; Michigan’s defense is a black hole.
[After THE JUMP: how a low-scoring day impacted the fancy stats]
About Last Week:
The Road Ahead:
Rutgers (2-3, 0-2 B1G)
Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 58-0
Recap: Little known fact: “recap” is short for “recapitulation.” And this is fitting, because Rutgers capitulated over and over again on Saturday.
They capitulated on offense, gaining 116 yards at 2.1 yards per play. They capitulated on defense, surrendering 669 yards at 7.5 yards per play (including 410 rushing yards at 7.7 YPC). They capitulated on special teams, returning 8 kickoffs for an average of 12.4 yards per return.
Rutgers is among the worst teams in the country. But we already knew this.
This team is as frightening as:
NOTE: So, last week I made a Punch-Out reference, and people demanded more. So this week, the Fear Levels are based on old-school video game enemies.
Goomba: self-explanatory. Fear Level = 1.5
Michigan should worry about: Stranger things have happened. That’s the thing you say when there’s no way this strange thing is happening, right? It’s like saying, “yeah, I probably won’t make this 80-foot putt… but remember that time that guy fired the space-torpedo into the Womp Rat-wide vent thing while dudes were shooting lasers at him? Stranger things have happened.”
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is #99 or worse in S&P+’s rankings for Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, and Finishing Drives. So, they start a long way from the end zone, they can’t get there quickly, they can’t get there slowly, and even if they get near it they can’t get the rest of the way.
When they play Michigan: NSFW.
This week: vs. Michigan, 7:00, ESPN2 (Michigan -28)
[AFTER THE JUMP: One of Michigan's opponents is statistically certain to go 11-1]
[Melanie Maxwell, The Ann Arbor News]
They were at the ribbon cutting ceremony for the newly renovated, now-air conditioned IM building. The sound isn’t great.
Part 1: Wisconsin
- That was the game when missing field goals really hurts—get Wisconsin behind and M’s defensive line can tee off.
- Hornibrook turtling was emblematic of the game, and Michigan’s much improved lane integrity. Taco helps.
- 350 yards against a very good defense is fine. Isaac and Smith had good games.
- Was Michigan’s offense elite by the end of last year, or was Florida just mailing it in?
Part 2: David Siegle, IM director and NCAA official
- David Siegle, headmaster of intramural sports, talks about the IM building renovations.
- What’s a catch? What is targeting? Mostly the coaches are making the rules, and they want to avoid head injuries. Officials with the cameras are weirdly not applying this rule.
- The Newsome knee-cut: maybe 5 years from now there will be either no cut blocks or just OL right after the snap.
Part 3: Mr. and Mrs. Sam Webb
- Rutgers had 116 yards against Ohio State and lost 59-0. With the home field advantage flipped that should be 130 yards and 52-0.
- Mrs. Webb works at the IM building. Sam used to get kicked and elbowed for snoring, then he got drugged.
- Another 9 minutes of Sam talking that I want it to be known I didn’t listen to, Mrs. Webb.