I'll miss you, Birds+Books APR image header, except I'll probably still use you
APR threat: downgraded. My annual fretting about the first-year Rich Rodriguez number has been a full-post kind of thing the last few years. This year it gets downgraded to a UV bullet because of this number: 984. That's Michigan's most recent one-year score, and it's shiny enough to get Michigan over the 930 Mendoza line even with that 897 anchor. Hurray for everyone.
Unless Michigan experiences another flurry of transfers—unlikely—the next few June days on which everyone reports APR scores because it's the middle of June will be opportunities to reflect on what a swell guy Brady Hoke is. Officially standing down on APR alert.
Michigan's other sports are all doing well, as per usual.
Playoff: almost officially happening. It seems like we've had articles about the inevitably of a four-team playoff for months now. At some point if the thing is so inevitable people would stop writing about it. No one's writing about players being required to wear helmets this fall. Anyway, it seems like there has finally been a meeting with an actual single endorsed plan. It is this (emphasis added):
While the B.C.S. commissioners did not announce the details of how they would pick the teams for the four-team playoff, a source with direct knowledge of the decision said the plan is for a selection committee to “more than likely” pick the four best teams.
There will be a preference given to conference champions in the selection, but how much is yet to be determined. Strength of schedule will also be strongly considered. There have yet to be any discussions about how the finances will be split among the teams.
The selection committee will subject a sport steeped in regional biases to a different type of controversy, although one that will likely die down a bit now that there will be semifinal and final games. The two semifinal games are expected to be played within the bowl system and the national championship will be bid on like the Super Bowl.
In a joint statement, the 11 conference commissioners and the Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said that they had reached a “consensus behind a four-team, seeded playoff, while recognizing that the presidents will certainly present their views, including a discussion of a Plus-One.”
That's lip service. Presidents are going to rubber stamp it. Pop champagne? It could be better but it's a huge improvement. Other than the Big Ten's self-defeating opposition to home playoff games leading them to perpetual road travels, I'm cool with it. FWIW, even without preferences for conference champions, the SEC would only have grabbed multiple bids three times.
As for where the first one will be, bet on Dallas.
Why not both? This is a revamped sports bar split into MSU and Michigan halves.
VERNON TWP. — Uncle Buck’s Northern Exposure is making a dramatic change in format — from a nearly topless dance club to big-screen sports bar.
In fact, it was an overload of drama, says owner Ken Canfield, that prompted the change, including a different name: Crossroads Sports Bar.
Missed opportunity there.
Hockey schedule: again with the front-loading. Michigan's released the hockey schedule, which again has an extremely light back end. Nine of Michigan's final 12 games are away from home (one is at the Joe) and there are just six home games (and the U18 game) in 2013. Not like they could do anything about that what with the conference going away next year. Price of leaving.
Michigan plays no road games in the slim nonconference portion of the schedule. They've got two against RIT, another one-off versus Bentley, the game at MSG against Cornell, and the outdoor GLI. They'll open against Tech and get WMU or MSU in the second game.
I hope this isn't an indication of where Michigan's nonconference schedule will go when they join the Big Ten. It probably isn't. Red has sought out tough competition as frequently as possible since the program got its footing, and with a whopping 14 games to play with—16 if M makes the trip to Alaska—they should have room for annual series against the big powers.
Context at Maize and Brew.
Should you flip your defense or not? Generally the answer is "not" these days because of spread hurry up stuff. You may remember Michigan doing this a bit early in the year, but that was a stop-gap measure:
Why to Flip
Flipping the defensive positions based on strength of the Offensive formation started as a way to keep teaching simple.
Rather than having to teach a Defensive End to play either lined up either inside a Tight End or outside shade on a Tackle, you could teach him to always align to the strength, meaning he spent all of his time on the Tight End.
The teaching got simpler, as players had to know less about the entire game, and more about their own little piece of tunnel vision. It became easy to know very little about the game while still being a very good and knowledgeable player about your own position.
No more, because if you flip your bits people will run hurry-up on your face and get you confused. Better to have a general understanding these days than a hyper-specific focus. That's a subtle way in which the game's generally increasing specialization is taking a step back.
FWIW, the coach who posted this noted that a number of guys are using field and boundary calls to set their defense instead of opponent alignment. (IE, you line up to the wide side or short side of the field no matter what the offense does.) FWIW, Mattison is one.
More uniform concepts. This time Notre Dame does it to themselves:
The second comment is an image of Chris Hall—life's winner—and his glorious Tom Hammond tie. Well done.
Etc.: UMHoops gives the 1,000-foot view on Michigan's five-man 2012 basketball recruiting class. Rothstein horning in on my season intro column by discussing Hoke's inadvertent marketing genius. Baumgardner has a series on key moments from last football season. I disagree with Baumgardner's take on the 49% TD against Iowa—he seems to think the issue there was whether Hemingway was in, but the real problem was the nose of the ball hitting the ground.
Close followers of this site are well aware that for all his faults, Rich Rodriguez was not handed a classic, loaded Michigan roster when he arrived. If you followed his recruiting at all you know he didn’t do the Wolverines any favors with his recruiting during his three years in Ann Arbor. Based on 11 years of recruiting and roster history, I have compiled a look at how Michigan’s talent and experience have ebbed and flowed since 2006 and how many elite caliber classes like the currently assembled 2013 class it will take for Michigan’s talent base to catch up with the nation’s best recruiting programs.
For those interested in how the roster values were calculated, I’ve added a section to the end to explain the methodology.
The Lloyd Peak
How long before he retired he knew when the end was is hard to know, but Lloyd Carr certainly had the roster set up for a great 2006 and 2007. In 2006 Michigan entered the season with the highest rated roster in the Big Ten and trailed only LSU and Miami (YTM) for top marks nationally. Both sides of the ball were well represented, ranked third nationally on both offense and defense. The stacked lineup led Michigan to the brink of their first BCS National Championship game before losing to top ten talent teams in the final two games of the season.
After a disappointing finish to 2006, the roster was even more setup for a big send off for Lloyd Carr in 2007. The roster trailed only USC in terms of overall talent and the offense had a sizeable lead as #1 nationally. Unfortunately, the losses on the defensive side dropped the defense out of the top 10 and were exposed in the first two games, ending Michigan’s national title hopes before the calendar turned to October.
The RichRod Hangover
The 2008 version of Michigan was not a team lacking talent (except for quarterback), but it was a ways from the talent level in Ann Arbor the previous two seasons. The defense rose a bit to sneak back into the top 10, where the loss of the Henne/Hart/Long dropped the offense from #2 in the nation to #16. By the 2010 season things hadn’t gotten better but they hadn’t gotten worse, either. The offense and the defense consistently ranked in the top 15 nationally but the results, especially the GERG effect on the defense never matched up with the talent-level on campus. The roster left for Rodriguez didn’t do him any favors but it was also far above the record and defensive performances that came from it.
The High of Hoke…
…will have to wait. As great as the Hoke recruiting era has begun, it will likely be a few seasons before the dividends begin to payout. The next two seasons will be the two where the roster effects of the Three and Out era will come due. This season the talent level will drop down into the 20s overall and likely stay there for the 2013 season as well before a big jump two years from now when the majority of the Hoke classes move from observers to contributors.
Michigan Vs The Rivals
Michigan dominated the end of the Lloyd era versus all the big three rivals but by 2008 Ohio and Notre Dame both moved into a better roster position. Despite the head to head losses, Michigan maintained an overall roster advantage over Michigan State. That nearly closed over the next two seasons, before the Hoke recruiting pushed Michigan out front once again. By 2015 Michigan should move close to par with Ohio and Notre Dame for the first time since 2008.
Michigan Vs The Best
Despite a lull coming up over the next two seasons, Michigan is poised to move into the upper echelon of national programs in terms of overall program talent. If Michigan can maintain top 5 level classes, by 2015 Michigan will move into the elite group of rosters in the country. Michigan’s projections begin to look a lot like that opening day opponent, with a five year delay. Nick Saban had similar rosters his first two seasons that Michigan is facing in the coming years, before taking off into elite status. Hopefully Michigan doesn’t need to go through the roster manipulation to get there, but with the first two Hoke classes, Michigan is making the first step to achieve a similar roster look as the team that has won 2 of the last 3 national championships.
What it All Means
Even the most die-hard numbers guy like myself knows that at the end of the day these are just numbers on a computer screen and the game is played on the field. The numbers are far from everything. Coaching, luck, player development and other factors are all major contributors to team success. With that said, the composition of the roster does mean a lot. As far back as I have reliable data for roster composition (2005) only Auburn has won a National Championship and not been ranked in the Top 10 for roster talent, and it took one of the greatest individual single-season performances ever for that to happen. Conference championships can be won with middle of the road talent for the conference. Last year Wisconsin won the Big Ten with the 7th highest rated roster in the conference. But over the long haul talent will win out.
Michigan will have more to overcome in the talent department than at any other time in the internet era. 2012 and 2013 will be lean years by Wolverine standards. Thankfully, we have the kind of coaches that have a high likelihood of mitigating that drop through their other talents of player development, in game coaching and for the future with recruiting.
Unlike Lindy’s I’ll do my best to give you a rundown of how I arrived at the valuations for each roster. Each player when recruited is ranked by each service. If they fall out of the Top X for any site, I do my best to approximate a ranking based on stars, position rank and grade where available. That rank is then translated into points. The formula I use is -4.5*ln([Rank]+11)+36. The specific formula was generated to more heavily weight the top players and produce an output where a consensus #1 rated prospect is worth a total of 99 points (summed across the four sites) and bottom of the barrel anonymous 2 stars are worth only a couple points.
Using this system, Michigan’s highest rated recruit was Prescott Burgess in 2003 at 90 points, Kyle Kalis was tops for the incoming class at 69 points and Shane Morris is currently at 79 points. Players are then weighted based on years in the system. Freshman only add 25% of their points to the roster total. 2nd year players (red-shirt freshmen or true sophomores) add 75% of their recruiting value to the overall total and all players in at least their third year in college football get 160% of their recruiting value. These numbers were derived based on actual usage of running backs (split of carries), quarterbacks (split of attempts), receivers (split of catches) and defenders (split of tackles) and then normalized so that the total roster number would approximately equal the sum of the unweighted recruiting points.
The total only counts players still on the roster at the beginning of the season. On the recruiting side a thousand points is usually at least a top ten or better class (The 2013 class is sitting at 1034 points). From the charts above you can see that the best rosters reflect 4-5 great classes and are 4-5,000 points.
Gerund fans rejoice, as NC CB Channing Stribling picked up a camp offer and pulled the trigger immediately. Tremendous is first past the post.
Gene, tell us what we've won!
8 in white. Via the News-Record.
|2*, NR CB||NR||NR||3*, #95 ATH, #40 NC|
Kid may as well be wearing a Guy Fawkes mask. Only one site bothered ranking him in the range of BCS-level college prospects and even they throw up their hands at what position he'll play in college. ESPN has no evaluation for him. The only 247 article on his profile is an honorable mention from a camp designed to find under-the-radar prospects. He was under even that radar. Scout hadn't posted an article on him until he showed at Michigan's camp. Rivals wins a prize for being the most up on the kid by posting one short article($) on him in February. You get the idea. This is a classic camp sleeper.
It's pretty obvious why: at 6'2", 165, Stribling is liable to break in half if the wrong gust of wind catches him. He's a CB/WR at Butler and will come to Michigan as the second very tall corner in the class (OH CB Gareon Conley is the other) after getting raves from the seemingly infinite camp observers.
Some of those raves follow. Tuesday recruiting already featured Sam Webb's take on him as a "camp riser($)":
Channing Stribling, CB, Matthews (NC) Butler, 2013 – How this kid is such a relatively obscure prospect while playing for such a powerhouse program is a mystery. Standing 6-2 and maybe 165-pounds, this Tar Heel State product is extremely fluid (despite his length), and possesses quickness that belies his size. Though not a blazer, he has good football speed. Furthermore, he has really good leaping ability and ball schools. Some schools might be scared away by his slender frame and lack of elite top end speed. Others, meanwhile, might see pure potential… a youngster that could become more explosive once he adds more muscle to his slender frame.
Another rising senior to do very well among the defensive backs was Channing Stribling of Matthews (N.C.) Butler. He is more of a long and lanky athlete with excellent height and reach, but he will need to add weight to play at the next level. Nevertheless, he showed excellent athleticism and was able to hang with the best receivers there.
Aaaaand that's it as far as scouting type stuff. As I said, Guy Fawkes.
As befits a who-dat camp find, Stribling had few offers at the time of his commitment. 247 lists NC State but that's dubious; when he talked to Scout($) yesterday he told them he had offers from Ball State and some FCS schools. Here are the schools he felt were at least looking at him:
"I am still waiting on my first offer to arrive but the interest has been strong for a while and I am hoping my first offer comes soon," said Stribling. "I have been talking the most to North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Miami FL, Minnesota and Florida. I have taken visits to both UNC and Duke already and I am looking to see Florida and Miami FL here very soon. I believe more schools will become interested as I attend more camps and give coaches a better chance to evaluate my talents."
He had a productive junior season, catching 37 passes for 636 yards and eight TDs with 37 tackles, six interceptions and 14 PBUs on D.
FAKE 40 TIME
Listed at a fairly realistic 4.56 at NCSA. One FAKE.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Flimsy indeed in this case. Michigan's latest forays into who-dat camp corners have worked out pretty well, what with Courtney Avery establishing himself a contributor already and Jeremy Clark getting the upgrade from grayshirt to regular shirt. [Ed-S: Even the obvious comparison, James Rogers, did end up becoming a contributor]. Stribling's a risk but in these cases where the coaches have seen the guy up close and personal for three days the "trust the coaches" mantra is more than an annoying rhetorical device. The people with the most in-depth, up-to-date information on Channing Stribling are Michigan's coaches.
So he's got a shot. He'll have to wait for it, obviously, with a redshirt to pack on some pounds all but certain. At his size he could play WR or S if corner doesn't work out; Michigan would very much like him to stick at the position they're projecting him for right now since 6'2" corners are rare commodities.
I also predict I figure out what FINAO stands for by the end of his career.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
What rest of the class? Michigan's sitting on 22 commits as of late June and will add two, maybe three more. Stribling likely closes out defensive back recruiting—enjoy Vandy, Leon McQuay.
Michigan is now looking for a strongside defensive end, I guess, and another wide receiver who will hopefully be LaQuon Treadwell. That would take them to 24, a number that would require Michigan to lose four more guys before February. If they lose another they'd be hunting for BPA. They may be doing so already with the slot vaguely ticketed for SDE.
Hey kids: I am headed out to NYC today. That plus knee rehab equals no time (no time). Mathlete will hit you up later today. It's June, be chill. Posting should continue as normal after today.
From reader Will Gallagher comes this item:
Hi there. I'm watching a Japanese movie and halfway through, I was surprised to see the main character wearing a blue shirt with maize lettering that says "The Lord is my Shepherd, but Bo is my coach." Just in case you needed any more MGoShirt ideas. Screenshot included.
I've asked after what this movie actually is… but probably can't put it in the store since it's obviously someone else's idea. [ED: "Rainbow Song." From 2006, which makes that shirt even weirder.]
For now, the Asian pop culture reference scoreboard stands at Iowa two (a terrible indie video and Girls' Generation), Michigan one. Unless you want to count a dozen Korean pop stars snuggling with your helmet more than a shirt, which fair enough.
Dollin' up the boxes.
I have neither enough points to start a thread nor the requisite photoshop skills to make this look right, but see attached and tell me if that is or is not an improvement... I like the full "UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN" myself, but could be talked in to the block M. It needs something, with the stands full you can't even tell its Michigan Stadium.
I think the emailer is right: the boxes, while gorgeous on the outside, leave a little something to be desired once you're inside the stadium. They could use some maize trim and a simple, non-halo-esque logo or notification that this is a university. Professionally photoshopped, of course.
Another thing to do is to put the retired/legends numbers on one of the boxes like they do many other places. Before the boxes, Michigan never had anywhere to put said names. Now they do.
Also, when are we going to get the long-waited crazy person bleachers on top of those things? "See Michigan play football from the moon!" That's a freebie, Hunter S Lochmann. Call me. We'll push that envelope… to the moon. Call me, seriously. I have ideas for days.
Unrelated. I tried, but there's no way to even pretend this is relevant.
Amazing. BHGP's Horace E. Cow finishes his fake pro combat series with Ohio State, and it's a doozy:
Click. It is amazing.
Basketball offers. As expected, they went out to Keita Bates-Diop and Devin Booker on Friday. Neither dropped immediately but both made encouraging noises. Booker gave various sites a variation on this quote:
Where does Michigan rank among the schools who have offered you or otherwise contacted you?
Michigan is definitely a top runner. I don’t know about an exact rank, but they’re definitely going to be there throughout the whole recruiting process. They’re up there.
I got all excited about the version of the quote($) he gave to Rivals that called Michigan "a strong frontrunner" and I took that to mean they were the front-runner, but the overall picture is more circumspect than that. Booker seemed taken aback when UMHoops asked if he was committing this summer. Booker's verging on five-star status—31st to Rivals, 23rd to ESPN, 29th to Scout—everywhere and would be a big pickup.
As for Bates-Diop, the vibe seems to be Michigan or Purdue and somewhat soon.
Brockdate. The Toledo Blade updates us on Brock Mealer's situation and recent charitable activities:
"I talk about perseverance," Mealer said. "I talk about the things that come from hard work, about accepting challenges rather than avoiding them. For me, that's about faith. Having a tragic thing happen, but remaining faithful."
Mealer and his family -- including part of the family he's come to know in the Michigan football program -- hosted and took part in the David Mealer Memorial Classic on Monday. In its third year the golf tournament has raised more than $20,000 for various charities and medical causes, and its designated beneficiaries this year are the emergency room department of the Fulton County Health Center in Wauseon and Athletic Angels, a charitable foundation run by former Michigan strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis; the charity's emphasis this year is to provide personal training for individuals with paralysis.
26 of the 120 golfers were Michigan football players, a veritable festival of shots shanked backwards off the tee. You will tear up on senior day this year when Brock is standing next to Elliott. This is a warning.
LEAVE THE FALCONS ALONE. Those Peregrine falcon chicks that picked up the first names of various Michigan football coaches had an accident:
Three of the four newly hatched peregrine falcon chicks that live atop University of Michigan Hospital are in rehab after dropping from their nest onto a landing above the second floor of the hospital.
The chicks appear to be unharmed but are in rehab so specialists can help them develop flying muscles, said Michigan Department of Natural Resources Specialist Christine Becher.
If I see them at my next physical therapy appointment I'll advise them to follow the example of Yost and adopt the last names of the various coaches. No one has actually given name X to chick Y yet, but it's logical to assume that the one who didn't fall off the building is the one who took the last name of the coach, not the first name. None of this would have happened if these chicks were named uniformly.
Fascinating, captain. Holly asks "what is the Big Ten equivalent of PAAAOWL, anyway?" And… well, what is it? The best I can come up with is saying something mean about Jim Delany.
“It’s unbelievable,” Di Giuseppe told New England Hockey Journal from his hotel room in Toronto, where he is attending the NHL Scouting Combine this week. “When you start looking at NCAA programs, one school stands out: the University of Michigan Wolverines. Growing up, I never really looked at going there, but as time went by, and I began to look at maybe taking a different route, there was no other choice for me.”
A junior year maybe? He is very young.
Was there a question about this? The GLI has been extended to 2014 under the usual format (Michigan Tech/Michigan/Michigan State/Wildcard), something I've never seen reported before. Accompanying quote:
"The Great Lakes Invitational tournament has become a long-standing tradition with our program and other schools in the state," Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon said in a statement. "We are pleased that this annual holiday tournament will continue for the foreseeable future."
Not to be paranoid, but does this make anyone else think the tournament might either be going away or facing changes in the somewhat near future? Of late the GLI has acted as a bridge between Michigan Tech, the one in-state school not in the CCHA, and the rest of the state. When the various Michigan schools are spread across three conferences, it seems like Wildcard should always be Ferris or Western or Northern or Lake State and at that point we might want to start talking about a larger tournament.
I've mentioned this before. It's fun to Play For Stuff and now there's a need for the Michigan schools to get greater exposure to each other. The GLI could morph into the end of that tourney.
Proposed format reminder:
- Grab either BGSU or Notre Dame for an eighth team.
- Form two groups of four with MSU and M split, Ferris and WMU split, and fill out the groups with the WCHA and honorary Michigan team. Example group: M, WMU, NMU, BGSU. Example group two: MSU, Ferris, LSSU, MTU.
- Each team plays two games against each group opponent—the WCHA teams in the same division can have an early-season conference series double as their Michigan Cup series. Top two in each group advance to the GLI.
- GLI is as is, with group winners avoiding each other in the first round.
The GLI trophy, whatever it is, now means something pretty cool. You could rescue the Mason Cup from oblivion if you want. (I'd prefer to not continue glorifying a man who spent his career trying to murder entertaining hockey no matter how nice and successful he was, but you may not be so opposed.) Michigan also has six of their 14 nonconference games set every season. The only reason not to do it is a slight amount of money Michigan and Michigan State won't be getting by loading up their nonconference schedules with the Bentleys of the world. Yay money!
To be fair, I think every school in the Dakotas has something like that on Minnesota. Maybe the new world of college football playoffs will tell us what's in the computer formulas. Mark Donnal's team won the camp championship at the NBPA thing. Athlon predicts Michigan will win the Big Ten this year. MVictors on the departed Bob Chappius. Zach Travis on M finally beating OSU.
Michigan's camp is going on right now. It's happening as you read this. There are photos. You have to believe me.
2015 ONT/TN QB Michael O'Connor w Gardner, Borges via Maize and Blue News
Things are… well, probably not happening very much since Michigan's already got 21 commitments. Touch the Banner put together a list of the various attendees if you want to know who's scheduled to be there. A couple of the more interesting 2013 names:
Darren Carrington - WR - San Diego (CA) Horizon: Carrington is a 6'2", 187 lb. quarterback and wide receiver. He's the son of former San Diego Chargers safety Darren Carrington, who played in their Super Bowl loss to the San Francisco 49ers. He received an offer from Michigan last week, so his main reason for camping would seem to be for seeing the campus and meeting the coaching staff. (Highlights here.)
Caleb Day - ATH - Hilliard (OH) Darby: [Day] is a 6'0", 188 lb. athlete who could play lots of positions in college, including running back, wide receiver, cornerback, or safety. Michigan hasn't offered yet, but he really seems to be hoping for one from the Wolverines. He does, however, have offers from Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio State, and several others. Day looks a little too stiff to play cornerback at a big-time program, but I could see him fitting in at any of those other positions. Michigan has bigger fish to fry at running back (Jordan Wilkins, Derrick Green) and wide receiver (LaQuon Treadwell), and they're pretty set at safety. However, Day could be a backup option at any of those positions and reminds me of a slightly less skilled Dymonte Thomas.
TN RB Jordan Wilkins is mentioned above and is tentatively scheduled to be in this weekend, something we know thanks to David Dawson badgering Wilkins on the twitter. He looks like Michigan's best shot at a blue chip-ish tailback with Ty Isaac out of the picture and Derrick Green looking like a serious longshot. That's not a good shot since the kid nearly committed to Auburn last week, mind you.
As of today the top sleeper name appears to be NC CB/S Channing Stribling, who is a gerund fan and wisp of a man from Butler High School, the alma mater of rather good Michigan safety Jamar Adams. Webb on him($):
How this kid is such a relatively obscure prospect while playing for such a powerhouse program is a mystery. Standing 6-2 and maybe 165-pounds, this Tar Heel State product is extremely fluid (despite his length), and possesses quickness that belies his size. Though not a blazer, he has good football speed. Furthermore, he has really good leaping ability and ball skills. Some schools might be scared away by his slender frame and lack of elite top end speed. Others, meanwhile, might see pure potential… a youngster that could become more explosive once he adds more muscle to his slender frame.
Might be one to watch as it seems Michigan is looking for one more guy in the secondary.
In less positive news, Cass Tech DT (and Illinois commit) Kenton Gibbs hasn't made it in and probably won't thanks to an injury. That makes it unlikely he ends up getting the offer he wants. Maize and Blue News notes that John Runyan Jr, a 2015 kid, was in attendance.
Camp continues all week.
Hey, look, it's OH LB commits Ben Gedeon and Mike McCray.
For whatever reason, this photo reminded me of Gerry Dinardo showing up to Michigan practice in 2008 or 2009 or whatever and saying something vaguely like "usually when you go to Michigan you know it, but if you took away the helmets you would think I had recruited this team." I don't think that's going to be the case in 2014.
2014 Caremeter Update
The caremeter might kick into overdrive—or at least drive—this week what with camp. These days camp is for rising juniors, and Michigan's got a bucketload of them coming in. The vast majority of the kids listed on the TTB post are 2014 players. The spot to watch is probably linebacker, what with all three Cass guys, IL LB Clifton Garrett and IN LB Gelen Robinson fighting for what looks like a limited number of spots. Michigan will graduate only Cam Gordon and Mike Jones next year, and that's only if both of those guys get fifth years.
The headliner Sunday($) was actually 2015 kid Michael O'Connor, that 6'5" Canadian QB who's transferring to a toity private school in Tennessee to up his level of competition. He's still waiting on an offer from Michigan but already has an MSU offer and made the usual positive but non-committal noises($) after his camp experience yesterday.
Meanwhile in non-camp activities, 2014 OH LB Michael Ferns took a visit over the weekend and seemed BLOWN AWAY(!, also $) by the experience. TomVH caught up with him to get a telling quote:
"I heard Ann Arbor is a great place, and getting up there, being in town, everything was great," he said. "I don't want to say too much, but (the visit) was a 10. I was shocked by the whole deal. It was really good."
And here's the de rigueur locker-room-and-gloves shot:
Sam Webb relates that Ferns went home($) afterwards instead of visiting Michigan State as planned, because obviously. He's planning to get out to Notre Dame, then shut it down for a while; with Penn State and Ohio State previously thought to be front-runners this is going to be a knock-down, drag-out Midwest power fight.
Michigan's also offered 2014 IL OL Jamarco Jones.
Even More Things About SMSB
Josh Helmholdt has a list of under-the-radar prospects he caught at the camp with a mention of MI WR Jack Wangler (yes, that Wangler):
WR Jack Wangler, Royal Oak (Mich.) Shrine Catholic: Wangler has put a lot of work in this off-season with his Maximum Exposure teams, going head-to-head against some of the top defensive backs in the country. Wangler is always going to be a possession receiver; but his speed is coming along, and he has been timed as low as the 4.5 range for the 40-yard dash. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Wangler is a physical receiver and a technician when it comes to route-running.
CB Jourdan Lewis, Detroit Cass Tech: Some of the best one-on-one matchups during the event involved Lewis - on both sides of the football. The 5-foot-11, 170-pound Lewis is going to Michigan to play cornerback, but he is also a BCS-caliber wide receiver prospect. Lewis is so quick with his cuts that he creates instant separation from defensive backs, and he also has great hands. Both attributes also serve him well at the cornerback position.
QB Shane Morris, Warren (Mich.) De La Salle: Morris led a solid group of quarterback prospects at the event but clearly stood out as the top player at his position. The Rivals100 prospect is really in control of his game right now, and his passes are coming out of his hand beautifully with velocity and accuracy. He was told by Michigan quarterbacks coach Al Borges, who was working the event, to throttle it back some on day one, but overall Morris varied his speeds well during the event.
The Five Star Challenge, Rivals's tastefully-named rival to the Opening, will also feature a number of Michigan commits and targets. So many that Michigan is named one of five teams to watch for this thing along with Auburn, Alabama, USC, and Texas. As the header says: nice company.
Details of Michigan commits and targets:
Michigan currently has the top recruiting class in the Rivals.com team rankings so it is no surprise that it has several commits in action at the Five-Star Challenge. Three future Wolverines -- linebacker Mike McCray, athlete Jourdan Lewis and offensive lineman David Dawson -- will be on the North squad, while offensive tackle Chris Fox will suit up for the West. Lewis is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the Midwest and will prove his versatility by playing cornerback. Dawson has also seen his stock take off this spring, picking up a ton of offers even after committing. McCray is ranked as the No. 55 overall player in the country and will attempt to prove he belongs in the discussion with Reuben Foster, Jaylon Smith and Matthew Thomas as five-star linebackers. Wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, defensive end Malik McDowell and defensive end Da'Shawn Hand are also big Michigan targets.
If McDowell Is going to establish himself a five-star sort he'll have to keep pace with the Hands of the world, and this is probably the only opportunity he'll have this year. Also of interest will be how McCray and Fox do. Fox hasn't hit the camps much and Rivals is considerably higher on McCray than others. Rivals even has a video featuring a Fox matchup with yes-that's-really-his-name Auburn DL commit Dee Liner:
I know. I can't believe that's his name either.
FL WR Alvin Bailey, a four-star slot type who would be a change of pace from Michigan's coming horde of long-limbed 6'3" guys, popped up on Michigan's radar around the time his teammate Leon McQuay III named his odd top three featuring Michigan, USC, and Vanderbilt. Bailey hasn't gone on any visits yet but he wants to get things over with within a month, so he's visiting a bunch of places. His goal($):
"I am planning to go to Michigan, West Virginia, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, and that is about it," Bailey said. "I will probably start taking those trips in the next couple weeks."
After taking those trips, the Rivals250 prospect is hoping he will be ready to select his future home.
"I want to make a decision after I visit those schools," Bailey said. "I want to decide around the end of July probably."
That constitutes a tentative top six for Bailey. If McQuay was already in the boat there'd be reason for optimism here; without it that's a heavily Southern list. It's going to be hard to get him above the Mason-Dixon line.
Tremendous says a reliable source relates that CA WR Sebastian Larue is close to a decision and has a top three of Michigan, Oklahoma, and USC. He hasn't visited, so that's unlikely to go Michigan's way if it does come.
Etc.: 2015 Cass Tech QB Jayru Campbell has insanely early offers($) from Notre Dame and Alabama now. 2014 MI QB Chance Stewart gets a Wisconsin offer($). Iowa offers Cass Tech LB Deon Drake($). McDowell isn't going to camp at OSU($). Michigan makes Eddie Vanderdoes's top 15. Woo? Nebraska offers and lands a longsnapper. It's longsnapper madness.