talk to caris yo
There is no official word about it yet, but both premium sites have started with the grumbles about the upcoming APR report. As demanded by math, Michigan won't fare well. This here site has been fretting about the APR numbers since at least May of last year when the 2008 numbers came out:
I am a bit concerned Michigan's football numbers will dip over the next few years. The four-year rolling numbers:
That's a steady decline as the Carr years waned and attrition increased. The APR issues two points per student per year, one for being academically eligible and one for not leaving, and Michigan's suffered a lot of premature departures.
Note that I didn't have that quite right. The APR issues two points per term:
What is the APR?
The Academic Progress Rate is an NCAA measure to track the academic achievement of Division I teams during each academic term. Each student-athlete earns one point for staying in school and one point for being academically eligible. A team’s total points are divided by points possible and multiplied by 1,000 to equal the team’s APR score. Teams that fall below the minimum APR score of 925 face possible sanctions ranging from scholarship reductions to more severe penalties.
Also, early pro departures who leave in good standing don't hurt you. If they leave ineligible, that's 0-for-2.
In late July, I tried to put some hard numbers on the departures and came up with improbably positive results: even after somewhere between twelve and fifteen players left the team in 2009 I came up with a worst-case number of 941, which is considerably above the NCAA minimum of 925. After some consideration, I think my error was in overestimating the number of available points. Michigan's latest APR report shows an N of 241. If Michigan was using every last scholarship every semester—or, rather, if the NCAA was counting every last scholarship—that N would be 260. If you assume that only 93% of the points are available in an average year, the 941 estimate drops to 937. Since Michigan has spent the last two years really short that is a conservative estimate.
Since then Michigan has lost Justin Feagin, Marell Evans, Vince Helmuth, Boubacar Cissoko, and Brandon Smith, but it's unclear where those guys will count. Smith and Cissoko will clearly apply to 2010 numbers, but Feagin, Evans, and Helmuth all left over the summer and it's not clear which year their departures will be charged to. Feagin played at Texas Southern this year and therefore must have left eligible. Evans was a member of Hampton's latest recruiting class*, which makes me think he stayed at Michigan for at least a semester. If he'd transferred immediately he would have played, like Feagin did. (He's still in the directory, but I'm still in the directory. This is not conclusive.) Vince Helmuth transferred to Miami (Not That Miami). Since that's a D-I school he has to sit out a year eligible or not, but IIRC Helmuth was a good student in high school and Miami is not a common destination for the academically challenged.
Departures after the July 22 post should cost Michigan two more APR points if they count against '09 at all. That brings them down to 930 using the same system my rough, still-optimistic math above suggests. My guess is Michigan's APR this year is below 925.
ARRRRGH GIVE ME A FRICKIN' SIREN?
But will they fall under the mark when all four years are averaged? Probably not. Since the first APR reports on the NCAA's site cover shorter periods of time we can figure out Michigan's yearly APR and find the ones that will figure in this year's calculation.
The last three scores are 970, 930, and 933. The premium grumbles give me pause—does anyone care enough to mention it if Michigan's four-year APR drops to 935?—but Michigan would have to drop an 867 this year to be subject to penalties. That 970 is a big buffer.
It's a buffer that will go away next year, though, and Michigan will have to resume its usual practice of not flailing around with 67 scholarship kids because of a zillion transfers if it's going to stay out of the penalty box. Of course, if Michigan doesn't do that the APR is just going to be another reason Michigan's looking for a new coach.
*(So is Nu'Keese Richardson, FWIW.)
Iowa. Asian pop bands. A love that is forever. Via the message board, another inexplicable Asian pop song in which the Hawkeyes feature prominently. This one is less pedobear and more 120 Minutes.
One correction to the MGoBoard poster: Girls' Generation is totally not obscure. "Gee" was the longest-running #1 song on KBS's Music Bank, I will have you know.
Enter the Schnell. Michigan will play Howard Schnellenberger University, also known as Florida Atlantic, in 2012:
It appears the Owls will play at Michigan in 2012 barring any snags in the final negotiations.
"It looks like both sides are amenable to it," said FAU AD Craig Angelos.
I don't really care who Michigan brings in as a random tomato can, but do have a preference for local schools. I guess the FAU game is a vague attempt to increase Michigan's profile in the state, or something. Rod Payne is a coach there and Grant Debenedictis an athletic department employee, FWIW.
"Hey, in my kit back there where I've got all my dope." I hit up NCAA.org today in search of APR information to update last summer's post about what will certainly be a dip in Michigan's numbers this year—more on that later—and the top headline is the fourth item in a series about Division II reform. This would normally rank low on my list of things to bring you, but here's the topic:
Hourly limits to be evaluated in Phase II review
Among the areas of review in Phase II of the Life in the Balance initiative is the nebulous “20/8-hour rule,” which regulates athletically related activities in and out of season.
Given that it’s difficult to understand and even harder to track (the rule trips up Division I institutions, too), it’s probably going to be tough for the Division II Legislation Committee to develop recommendations for modifying it.
The NCAA's official website just called the in- and out-of-season hourly limits "nebulous," "difficult to understand," and "even harder to track." So there you go.
Well… yeah. Add this to the pile of former Michigan players asked about Rich Rodriguez who all basically say the same thing in different ways. It's Brandon Graham's turn:
“After the season, we said that, ‘you can’t be up for so long, eventually you have to pay taxes,’ ” Graham said on Saturday. “That’s how we look at it until we get it back up. That’s what we’re going to do. I hope them boys get right next year. Because coach (Rich Rodriguez has) only got one more year — if they don’t do (anything). Because of the allegations, and then, if you have a bad year, then you’ve got to get someone new.”
Again, this is just a different version of the same opinion heard in all of these quotes. They don't say anything about Rodriguez, really. They say something about the guy offering the quote. Brandon Graham, as per usual, is win.
Target date for reacquisition of mojo. … If you mean "enough for Rich Rodriguez to keep his job," there is no patience for those questions to work themselves out; it's 2010 or never. The Wolverines need seven regular season wins to ward off the inevitable mob clamoring for Rodriguez's head, which probably means breaking even in Big Ten play, which means winning more conference games this season (four) than the 2008-09 teams won in the last two combined (three).
That's a dramatically lowered bar relative to anything Michigan has considered a reasonable standard in 40 years. At this point, though, beggars can't be choosers: Every energy this fall has to go to getting back above .500, finding something to hang a helmet on and setting higher goals from there.
A theory put to the test. My swanky blogging program has an auto-link capacity that I've used to link to my Bleacher Report hating (hey, there it goes) since I published it. In that post is this assertion:
The mere fact that people can't immediately tell the difference between the dreck on the Bleacher Report and your average MSM columnist is perhaps the most damning criticism you can offer of MSM columnists.
Now we'll get an opportunity to test that out in practice. A few newspapers desperate for free content have signed one of them content-sharing agreements. Congratulations to newspaper subscribers in Houston, San Antonio, San Francisco, and Seattle: you are the vanguard. Someone who works for a newspaper said this:
“Bleacher Report’s publishing platform provides a powerful way to serve our readers quality, original content that complements our own coverage,” Stephen Weis, executive vice president of the Houston Chronicle and general manager of Chron.com, said in a statement. “Working with Bleacher Report, we’re able to reach out to local fans and add a variety of viewpoints on each of the day’s sports stories that matters most to our readers in their home markets.”
Sporting News colleague Dan Levy says "there's something missing" in his BR critique on the Sporting Blog. This is because Dan Levy is a very nice man. I have many theories as to what the missing thing is that are not very nice. I do eagerly anticipate the day when either the Free Press or the LA Times hops on board and people can't tell the difference between Plaschke, Sharp, and a 14-year-old whose main interests are Tony Hawk and imagining what it would be like to touch a boob. Dress them up in Official Journalist trappings and give them once-over from a copy editor and it'll be hard to distinguish.
Etc.: Tom Harmon goes to work.
|Metairie, Louisiana - 6'1" 195
||Scout||3*, #79 S|
|Rivals||3*, #33 S, #13 Louisiana|
|ESPN||3*, 76, #73 S|
|Other Suitors||Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, Tennessee, LSU (interest).|
|Commitment post. Johnson's coach drops in on Rivals. Johnson figures prominently in several editions of Friday Night Lights. A local coach offers a positive take.|
|Notes||Will play box safety.|
When Michigan brought in Louisiana safety Carvin Johnson for an early November visit, he was the definition of a who-dat. The last thing Rivals had written about him was a four-month-old piece on Tulane's interest. When he committed, Tim scoured the internets for ratings and came up with this:
|NR S||NR DB||Not in Database|
As you can see, Johnson is a COMPLETE STUD that the recruiting services ABSOLUTELY LOVE and have even HEARD OF.
Naturally, people were skeptical. He and safety classmate Ray Vinopal have spent the last month or so talking about how they're going to prove their doubters wrong because most of the things people have said about them are "why aren't you Latwan Anderson?" and "argh."
That was then. If you'll look above you'll note that the recruiting services now have an idea who Johnson is and think he's kind of good. The three stars Johnson got from Rivals are not a perfunctory ok-you-committed-to-Michigan three stars. He's on the verge of a fourth star (the #11 player in Louisiana has four stars). While the other three star rankings are perfunctory, there's plenty of evidence that Johnson is not a MAC-level flier and is actually a guy who Michigan got in on while he was under the radar.
Why might Carvin Johnson, who played for Louisiana power Rummel, which made the state championship game and landed a ton of guys on the all-state team in the largest division, be under the radar?
What did you like least about the process?
• Carvin Johnson: “I didn’t like anything about it. I don’t like all that, I really don’t. I don't like recruiting, I don’t like going to the recruiting camps. I don’t like all that, I just like to play, pretty much. You want to watch me play, come and watch me play."
Johnson totally avoided the camp and combine circuit, lowering his profile. LSU is now heavily dependent on its summer camp, so when Johnson didn't show he fell off their radar. Since Rummel's coach has his kids on serious lockdown—Carvin's in-season official visit was an extremely rare event for a coach who usually does not permit them—Johnson was virtually unknown to the sites when he committed.
Since that time there has been plenty of evidence that Johnson is a sleeper in the true sense of the word.
Item one: the above-mentioned re-rank. Rivals' enthusiasm derives from an in-person viewing($):
STRENGTHS: Johnson is a fantastic tackler. He can tackle in the open field or fill the alley. He brings a pop at the point of contact and always has the ball carrier falling backwards. Johnson is a smart safety in the run game, picking his spots to make an impact and not overpursuing or being too aggressive.
WEAKNESSES: Johnson doesn't look to have elite straight-line speed and he is more of a run-support safety than a coverage guy. - B.S.
Scout and ESPN did not mention such a viewing, so the positive Rivals take carries more weight. Also, while Michigan recruits do tend to get a second look that doesn't mean they all get a bump. DJ Williamson and Ray Vinopal both carry two stars at one site or the other.
Item two: his profile amongst coaches wasn't quite as low as it was a the recruiting sites. When Johnson committed, he had a number of offers from BCS schools:
Johnson, a returning All-District 10-5A selection and the top player on the state's undefeated and No. 2 ranked team in Class 5A, had other official offers from Tulane, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Tulsa, SMU, Louisiana Tech, UL-M and Northern Illinois, Johnson and Rummel Coach Jay Roth said.
Minnesota, Utah, and Colorado aren't hugely exciting, but after Johnson committed LSU got on the phone with Rummel immediately. This was more than a cursory look. At about that point, LSU hired Tennessee RB coach Frank Wilson a job that he accepted. Wilson spearheaded a serious look at Johnson:
Frank was in town at Archbishop Rummel High School, taking a hard look at Carvin Johnson, who has verbally committed to Michigan. He likes the 6’1, 190 pound senior safety and may recruit him wherever he coaches next year. … He also opined that while LSU has gotten most of those outstanding home-grown players, they have either missed on or not recruited others, including the likes of Rummel’s Johnson.
Johnson did not reciprocate the interest and LSU eventually drifted away without an offer. Would Johnson gotten an offer if he had taken an official? That's not definite, but does seem possible. On Signing Day, Fred Jackson wove a tale of fending off a pair of unidentified SEC schools($) (and a horde of robot insects from Xazrak, this being Fred Jackson) at the last minute. In a Signing Day interview, Johnson confirmed that one of the schools was Tennessee.
Item three: local support. In the aftermath of the slightly downcast commitment post, this site received an unprompted email from a Louisiana football coach promoting Johnson's ability. Coach Ox:
Carvin Johnson is not even one of my players – but I have played against his Rummel team and know Jay Roth and his program well. Carvin Johnson can play. Here in LA, we do not send kids to camps to get hyped up. We know our kids can play. If a LA kid is going to combines, it is very much more than likely due to (a) his high school coach trying to get exposure for himself or (b) because his program isn’t any good, but he plays well. Trust me, this is how it is.
You are getting a solid player – big, physical, coached up, football smart.
(Clearly, Johnson is ticketed for the box safety role.) Meanwhile, scouring a local message board or two—"Carvin" is a terrific search term—reveals a few references, all of them positive. In a thread on Louisiana recruits that escaped the state, a poster claims a couple of in-state defensive backs are underrated, "especially Carvin." In a similar thread a couple of other posters pick Johnson as a guy LSU should have offered.
Defensively, he's amassed 74 tackles, including two sacks, while forcing a fumble, breaking up three passes and recording seven interceptions. He's also been a key special teams' performer, returning 26 punts for 358 yards (13.8 yards per return) and two touchdowns.
By the end of the year, Johnson was first-team all state in the largest classification, winner of the local "Amateur Athlete of the Month" award, and on the Clarion Herald's all-decade(!) team. One thing that's been widely reported here and elsewhere he did not, in fact, accomplish: Johnson was not the state championship game MVP in a 30-0 loss. He was his team's MVP. Imprecise language on the part of some local reporters has let that bizarre, and sadly untrue, factoid loose.
Local reporters tend towards panting reactions:
Breaud was terrific, taking many huge hits, particularly from a human missile named Carvin Johnson and by linebacker Chris Randle. Johnson, who earlier this week committed to Michigan, returned a punt 69-yards for a score on a brilliant effort but the play was called back for a block in the back by Rummel.
So there you go.
Item four: character/coach fawning. If Justin Feagin taught us anything, it's don't scam an unstable burnout out of money because he'll try to burn South Quad down. But if he taught us a second thing, it would be "don't read too much into quotes." Even so, Rummel coach Jay Roth's lavish praise moves the needle with your blogger. This bit specifically:
A mid-year transfer after starting as a freshman at a New Orleans-area public school, Johnson showed up in Roth’s office one day three years ago and said, “Coach, I was at a program where the kids showed up late for practice and they weren’t held accountable and the coach didn’t work as hard as I want to be worked. I want to be challenged.”
"But Carvin is a stud. When the word was out he committed to Michigan, my phone started ringing off the hook from the schools down here, but I told them it's too late.
"Carvin's told everyone that's tried to call that he's done. He's committed to Michigan."
“First of all,’’ Roth said, “everybody who knows Carvin or who has been around him knows that he’s as good of a person as he is a football player. That’s a compliment to him and his momma. Football-wise, he’s a ballhawk. He’s always around the football making plays.’’
"I cannot say enough about him and our defense."
After Johnson committed, Roth went so far as to hop on Rivals and answer a bunch of questions.
It is in these things that this site's recent optimism on Johnson is born. In this, he's like Vincent Smith last year: a player who initially drew a "meh" but by Signing Day was touted around here as one of the low-rated guys to watch out for in this class. Johnson isn't likely to have the same impact Smith did as a freshman—running back is always the easiest place to make an instant contribution—but he's this site's sleeper of the year.
Understatement of the Decade. Roth on Johnson:
“He’s a different kid. Very intense kid, look you in the eye, shake your hand firmly, hang on every word you say. And he’s not accustomed to losing. He doesn’t care for it too much.”
This is Johnson after Rummel's 30-0 loss—their first and only of the year—in the state championship game:
Word, coach Roth. Word.
Why Jamar Adams? Adams was 1) a big safety who was good in run support, 2) a generic three star to the sites, and 3) a guy who came in with a buzz disproportionate to his rankings. He bore that buzz out quickly, starting a couple games as a freshman when Angry Michigan Safety-Hating God struck and establishing himself a three-year starter. Over the course of his career, Adams proved himself a reliable safety, a character asset, and solid starter. He was a fringe NFL player because of a lack of top-end athleticism.
Guru Reliability: Low. Johnson was unknown until the Michigan commitment and the re-rank after that was based on game observations, sans all star or combine appearances. Also there's a considerable spread.
General Excitement Level: Moderate plus. I'd rather have a guru-approved kid, all things being equal, but this point Johnson has shed the who-dat label and appears to be a solid find for Rodriguez & Co. Roth's praise indicates a kid who will be a program asset, as well.
Projection: Might have a chance to contribute early since box safety is sort of vacant and classmate Marvin Robinson did not enroll early, but the best bet is for a redshirt and then some development time with an eye towards starting in years 3, 4, or 5. Could fill out to play linebacker or spinner.
|WHAT||Michigan v. Ohio State|
Feb 27th, 2010
|THE LINE||Michigan +12.5*|
*Line provided by online sports betting site Sportsbetting.com.
When Last We Met
The Wolverines rebounded from a tough loss at Indiana to stun the #15 Buckeyes 73-64 in Crisler Arena. Ohio State was without Evan Turner, but the Wolverines' victory still stands as one of their (few) statement wins on the year.
The Buckeyes came out hot, with Jon Diebler bombing from long range and David Lighty getting to the basket in the first half. After they shot 59.6% eFG% from the floor in the first frame, however, MIchigan put on the clamps, holding them below 34.6% eFG% shooting after the break. Offensively, Michigan was led by DeShawn Sims, who scored 28 points on just 18 shots, and added 9 rebounds. Manny Harris finished with 24 points on 16 shot attempts.
Since Last We Met
The Buckeyes payed at a high level for most of the time they were without Turner, but since he's returned, they've been a top-notch team. Turner is making a serious case for National Player of the Year, so Michigan was lucky to face the Buckeyes without him last time. Ohio State has gone 12-3 since the MIchigan game, with one of those losses coming on the road against a tough West Virginia team.
Michigan, on the other hand... wel you know what's happened. They have been switching back and forth between encouraging wins (and even some encouraging losses) and soul-crushing defeats. With back-to-back losses against Penn State and Illinois, both of which were winnable, it remains to be seen whether this Wolverine team has just packed it in for next year, or if they're willing to show some fight in the last three games of the regular season.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
|Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Penn State Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. OSU Def eFG%||249||102||OO|
|Mich Def eFG% v. OSU eFG%||206||3||OOO|
|Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%||9||66||M|
|Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%||45||30||O|
|Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%||276||41||OOO|
|Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%||235||283||M|
|Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR||340||12||OOOO|
|Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR||11||211||MMM|
|Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD||126||20||OO|
|Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO||45||14||O|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
I'll keep the comments brief, because I predict some serious pain in this game.
Michigan's ratings have been oscillating wildly all year. Currently, the offense looks as bad per game as it has in a while, but the defense has improved over the last couple games, despite losses to Illinois and Penn State. Ohio State, on the other hand, is excellent at just about everything. Michigan will have to play one of their best games of the year in order to come away with an upset.
Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening. Vegas likes the Buckeyes by 12.5 points, and Ken Pomeroy says they'll win by 12. Those numbers sound about right to me. The final margin could be a little closer than that (and certainly a lot further apart), but I don't see enough in this game to see a Michigan win being possible.
The Michigan lacrosse team finally hits the field for the 2010 season on Saturday, as they head to Tucson, Arizona to take on the Arizona Wildcats in the first game of their 3-game road trip over spring break. They'll also take on Arizona State in Tempe and BYU in Provo.
The Wolverines compete in the MCLA, the country's top organization for club teams. They are the two-time defending National Champions, and look to extend their 40-game winning streak into the new campaign. Michigan hasn't lost since May 16, 2007 - more than 1,000 days.
Key Losses: Riley Kearns, Wes McGowan
Key Returners: Kevin Zorovich, Trevor Yealy, Clark McIntyre, Josh Ein
Newcomers: Zach Dauch, Thomas Paras
Trevor Yealy is the star of the Michigan attack, racking up outstanding goal totals each of the past two years. Last year, he led the MCLA with 4.5 goals per game, including a program-record 11 against Minnesota-Duluth, on his way to All-American and team offensive MVP honors. He's just a junior, so his best days may even be ahead of him. Kevin Zorovich, Michigan's second-leading scorer from last year and a 3rd-Team All-American, missed the pre-season with an injury, but is expected to be back in the lineup by regular season play. He was last year's team MVP. Freshman Thomas Paras only participated in the East-West scrimmage and the final pre-season game, but he impressed in each, totaling five total preseason goals.
Key Losses: Aaron Hodari, Peter Vasher
Key Returners: Jamison Goldberg, Matt Asperheim (LSM), Anthony Hrusovsky, Michael Bartomioli, David Rogers, Svet Tintchev
Newcomers: Max Greenspan (LSM), Matt Joseph, Matthew Levy (RS), Brian Greiner (RPI transfer), Willie Steenland, Sean Sutton, Joey Hrusovsky, Brian O'Callaghan (LSM), Harrison Silver, Lee Boshes (LSM), Nick Asher
Though the Wolverines bring in a huge class of midfielders, the majority of their production from the middies returns from last year. Perhaps the most important three are Michigan's senior captains, Michael Bartomioli, David Rogers, and Svet Tintchev. Long Stick Midfielder Matt Asperheim collected 42 ground balls last year. A bunch of newcomers will join the team as well, including Anthony Hrusovsky's younger brother Joey.
Key Losses: Zach Elyachar, James Payer, Jim Petoskey
Key Returners: Zach Mueller, Jordan Bargas, Harry Freid, Bob Diehl, Justin Burgin
Newcomers: Theo Lederfine Paskal, Matt Rizzo, JD Johnson, Pat Grogan, Forest Cox
Zach Elyachar was a 2nd-Team All-American and the squad's defensive MVP, so he will be a big loss, along with Jim Petoskey. However, the Wolverines have younger players ready to step up. Harry Freid was a 1st-Team All-American last year, and Bob Diehl was named last year's most improved player (all the while notching the team's highest Grade Point Average). Theo Lederfine Paskal and JD Johnson are just freshmen, but got some good minutes in the preseason.
Key Losses: None
Key Returners: Andrew Fowler, Mark Stone
Newcomers: Conor McGee, Cy Abdelnour
Andrew Fowler and Mark Stone split time in the net last year, with Fowler having the slight edge as the #1 guy (he played the entire National Championship game, despite a rough first half). Fowler missed a few games last year with a foot injury, but bother guys have been healthy through the preseason. Conor McGee and Cy Abdelnour bolster an already-strong unit.
Key Losses: None
Key Returners: David Reinhard, Edward Ernst
Senior David Reinhard was one of the best faceoff men in the MCLA last year, and was named a 1st-Team All-American specialist. He won 68.4% of his draws. Unsurprisingly, he also collected the most ground balls on the team, amassing 180 GBs. His backup, sophomore Edward Ernst, won over 60% of his faceoffs last year as well.
Schedule breakdown after the jump.
Training day. AnnArbor.com talks with Brandon Graham about his prep for the NFL combine. Includes interview segments with Graham and a look inside what Barwis's program is like. Graham also makes a huge array of pained faces:
Graham's running 4.58 40s and doing linebacker drills. I feel a RBUAS piece referencing this video in the future.
In other NFL draft news, Zoltan Mesko is interviewed by the Boston Herald and references a name from the past you might be surprised is hanging around the program again:
“I thought he [Pats special teams coach Scott O'Brien] was very knowledgeable in the special teams game,” Mesko continued. “I know we have our own Michigan guy that takes special teams really seriously, Pierre Woods, and basically, I never knew… When Pierre came back this past month, he’s training up at Michigan again to stay in shape, the amount of knowledge he’s picked up from the special teams coach there is unbelievable. You can really make or break yourself as a linebacker… you’re going to play special teams at that level.”
Woods got in some trouble after a breakout sophomore year and barely hung on with the program after that; many people believe that's where Michigan's rift with the Glenville program that pumps out players year after year started.
Hunwick! After last night's hockey game I bet my friend a dollar that Shawn Hunwick would get the first star despite not facing much in the way of scoring chances, or even shots, from Notre Dame. Lo, it was so. That capped what was probably the best game at Yost all year, a 4-0 win over Notre Dame that saw loveable tiny walk-on get (split) a shutout and two of the four seniors score. Carl Hagelin even added the sort of pretty goals that have been sorely lacking all year when he danced around an ND defenseman and set up Matt Rust for a slam-dunk on a two on one.
Hogan, who has made 41 straight starts in net, is listed as doubtful for Saturday's regular-season finale at Notre Dame.
I know I've been pretty down on Hogan of late—so has Red—but Hunwick's a 5'7" walk-on. That's a major blow.
Michigan is now sixth in the league. Four and five are done with conference play and Michigan can pass them with a win Saturday. If Northern gets five points or more out of their weekend (ie: win both nights and win one in regulation) against Lake State, they'll pass Michigan. Anything less and M will sneak into the fourth spot and grab the first-round bye that comes with it.
Will it matter? Eh… probably not. Unless MSU or Ferris State is upset, Michigan would reach the Joe as the lowest remaining seed and have to take out #1 Miami, a team that's lost all of two conference games this year. Doing that full strength is difficult enough, and now with Hogan questionable it's even more doubtful.
Side note: excellent work by whoever slid this game to Thursday night. I assume it was to make sure the students were present for senior day, something that's been exceedingly rare for a long time. Usually the students are on break and senior night is a flat affair.
Recruiting cavalcade. This didn't get mentioned in Thursday Recruitin'—which we promise will return to Wednesday when things are less insane—but this weekend Michigan is hosting a massive "Showcase" for high school recruits at Oosterbaan and Newsterbaan. They're not officially involved because they can't be, but having what seems like half of the Midwest's big recruits take an unofficial visit to Michigan's shiny new practice facility can't hurt.
Scout has a couple lists of all the folk coming in. Prepare for the begats. Notable names include MI RB Justice Hayes, MI WR DeAnthony Arnett, commit Shawn Conway, OH WR AJ Jordan, MI LB Lawrence Thomas, OH LB Antonio Poole, 2012 MI LB James Ross, commit Greg Brown, commit Delonte Hollowell, MI WR Valdez Showers, MI OL Anthony Zettel, OH OL Chris Carter, OH OL Aundrey Walker, IL OL Chris Bryant, and many others. It's like a super-massive junior day on Michigan's campus, the equivalent of getting a NIKE camp. The difference: NIKE camps are rare appearances and this is going to happen every year.
I'll be most interested to see how the current Michigan commits do. Zettel's already torn up a lineman camp and seems like he'll be an easy four-star, but Hollowell, Brown, and Conway haven't been to a senior camp yet IIRC and this will be a first read on where they'll end up in the rankings.
Expansion dampening? Yes, another Big Ten expansion article. This one has a couple of interesting quotes about the issue of buying into the Big Ten Network. New members are probably going to have to operate at a lower revenue level to start:
"You just don't jump into the league and get a full share of what everyone else in this league has established over time," Alvarez said. "I think someone has to buy their way into the league." …
"We've created such an asset in the Big Ten channel," Outgoing Michigan athletic director Bill Martin said, echoing Alvarez. "I cannot see our 11 institutions simply saying we're going to divide our pie up into more pieces from Day 1."
That will dampen enthusiasm from potential additions, but it might not matter. This is the first time I've seen these numbers for the BTN's second year and holy crap:
But according to tax forms the nonprofit conference is required to make public, it generated $217.7 million and paid each school about $18.8 million in 2007, the most recent year for which tax forms are available.
The next year, according to the Sports Business Journal, the new TV network added another $66 million to the pot. That pushed the per-team payout to about $22 million each, a figure officials from several Big Ten schools confirm remains accurate.
The next most prosperous conference, the SEC, paid its member schools about $11 million each in 2007, according to tax documents.
I'm pretty sure that latter distribution is way up since the SEC's blockbuster ESPN contract kicked in, FWIW, but I also think the SEC is going to have a static amount of money for the next 15 years; the Big Ten is half-owner of its network and will see increasing revenue shares over the course of that time.
(HT: Get The Picture.)
Yes that again. The WLA has a piece similar to the one I just posted, but when I said "I cannot emphasize enough" I was not kidding. Money grafs:
They certainly didn’t know their statements were true either. Is strongly asserting something you know could theoretically be true but might also be false a lie? If you don’t offer up any qualifications to your assertions (I didn’t see any), then I say yes, especially in the case of Rosenberg.
I suppose the best we could say about Snyder is he was totally ignorant of the subject on which he was writing and he didn’t know he was uttering falsehoods. So yay for being a dumbass, Mr. Snyder. But with Rosenberg, we know from his opinion column that he disapproves of the job Rodriguez is doing. For him to write falsehoods that also denigrate someone he disapproves of is just a bit too much of a coincidence for me to believe. Rosenberg knew what he was doing, IMO.
They lied. In the days and months to come regarding the story about “Michigan Players Practice A Lot,” let us not forget the fact that Rosenberg and Snyder lied to their readers.
To aid you in your stalking. People tend to like the occasional mentions of my personal life, so they'll love this: my fiancée's food blog. In it you will find out what I have been eating, what food-related conventional wisdom has recently been enraging in my presence, and various other bizarre things that don't have anything to do with me.
Etc.: Delany has our back, I guess.