I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
Update 12/22: Linked to articles on OH CB Mike Edwards, SC DE Sam Montgomery, LA DE Bennie Logan, TX WR Josh Gordon, FL DE Pernell McPhee, MI DT Will Campbell, AZ OL commit Taylor Lewan, video of NC OL Travis Bond. Pictures of Justin Turner's Army Bowl press conference.
Added OH OL Henry Conway, FL LB Willie Ferrell, LA WR Travante Stallworth.
Removed VA OL Morgan Moses, LA WR Rueben Randle, FL S Angelo Handley (UNC), MD DE Jason Ankrah (Neb), TX QB Shavodrick Beaver.
2010 stuff: article on MI WR Baquer Sayed.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here. We've discussed the fallout from the Beaver decommitment in a post earlier today; now onto the rest of the story.
Minor panic over the past week because Will Campbell wasn't talking much after his visit to Florida combined with minor panic about the effect of Scott Shafer's departure on defensive recruits, particularly Campbell teammate and safety commit Thomas Gordon, to create moderate indigestion on the part of Michigan fans who pay a little too much attention to recruiting. (Guilty as charged.)
Some antacid for your ulcers. Here's Campbell on the Shafer departure:
"It really doesn't affect me because my defensive line coach is still there," Campbell said, speaking of U-M assistant Bruce Tall, who also attended the banquet. "It also doesn't affect me at all because I don't know where I'm going. Even if I was still committed there, it probably wouldn't make a difference because my coach is still there."
To summarize in three words: good… bad… okay.
Also, on Sam Webb's Friday recruiting podcast he mentioned having talked to Campbell and did not get a vibe to be worried about. Campbell's final official visit took place over the weekend at Miami; he decides January 3rd at an All-Star game.
There's been a lot of gushing about Taylor Lewan behind paywalls, and while there's always a lot of gushing on the premium sites after anyone commits this particular gushing has a different tenor than most. ESPN's released some gushing of its own to the plebes, so take a look:
Lewan's development into a top-15 offensive tackle has been nothing short of amazing. We feel Michigan is getting an offensive lineman with perhaps the best upside we have seen at the position in recent years. The coach who helped mold him into the upper-echelon positional prospect he is today agrees.
"He's as good athletically as any guy I have ever coached," Ragle said. "The thing that makes him so special is his upside when you think he's only been coached at the position for about eight months. But the one intangible that's most impressive is his nastiness --Taylor wants to bury someone on every play, and you can't coach that."
This praise has gone above and beyond the run of the mill stuff I've seen in a half-dozen years with the recruiting sickness, and the bolded praise above comes from an entirely neutral observer at Scouts, Inc., not one of the guys on Michigan's premium sites*. Lewan's obviously got some weight and technique work to do, which is the reason he trails a number of other prospects at tackle despite having that upside; he's a guy to get excited about anyway.
*(This is not to say a guy like Josh Helmholdt won't give it to you straight about a prospect, but it's natural to be a little skeptical of fawning praise from someone affiliated with a school site.)
Back to Stallworth.
You're not alone if you got a Michigan vibe from Tom VanHaaren's interview with LA WR Travante Stallworth. A number of Auburn recruits committed to the Tigers with the idea they'd be playing in Tony Franklin's "Spread Eagle" offense, among them Stallworth, and they can't like the sound of this:
That could change when Chizik hires an offensive coordinator. Chizik emphasized his plans to re-establish a smashmouth brand of offense at Auburn.
The previous regime recruited most of the offensive recruits to run the spread offense. There are three specific players that could struggle to run a more traditional offense - receivers Brandon Heavens, LaVoyd James and Travante Stallworth. All three are 5-foot-10, and none weigh more than 180 pounds.
Geez, newspaper guy, way to call out specific kids and tell them they're not fits for their current commitments. Tiger fans appreciate it, I'm sure.
A relevant passage from Stallworth's interview:
TRAVANTE: Well, they [Auburn] fired the staff too, and I was real close to the TE/WR coach. I haven’t talked to anybody from Auburn since. My recruiting coordinator got fired, but he called me yesterday. That’s the only person I’ve talked to.
TOM: So what schools are you most interested in right now?
TRAVANTE: I’m highly interested in Michigan, I’m real interested in South Carolina, and I’m kind of interested in TCU.
Stallworth allows for the possibility of a commitment on a visit, and sounds like one of the better citizens available this recruiting cycle. He's a three-star guy to Scout and Rivals, but ESPN gives him an 80 (equivalent to a mid-to-high four star) and has high praise for him. He'd be a good pickup in the slot, which could use another player now that RB has taken a couple hits and a guy like Teric Jones might see his future in the backfield.
The other other guy who catches the ball.
TX WR Josh Gordon's story is a weird one: he, along with Bryce McNeal, was the best wideout at last year's Army All-America combine according to Rivals. He then repeatedly, publicly stated he wanted a Michigan offer and would commit if he got one. Then he got two stars from the recruiting services and started talking about Baylor. No, Baylor:
"It was real nice," Gordon said. "I was actually really surprised by how nice it was. They have real good facilities and everything was state-of-the-art, which I wasn't expecting. I didn't think it'd be that good of a football environment, but I guess this is the "new" Baylor they said."
Can you dance at "new" Baylor? Probably not. And Josh Gordon loves dancing. Anyway, with Michigan in search of an outside receiver sort they're getting back in Gordon's recruitment:
"I'm getting an in-home visit from some (Michigan) coaches this week," he said.
"I like Michigan because they are rebuilding their offense and have been recruiting me a lot more lately," he said. "I think I'd have a good chance to play early there and get the offense there going."
Gordon says he hopes that Michigan offers next week because he doesn't plan on waiting for the Wolverines much longer. "If they offer me this week then great," he said. "I'll take a visit there and see what it's like. If not, I'm just gonna focus on the ones I have offers from and move on."
That was a week ago and there's been no update on whether he got that offer, or indication he'll visit. Could be off the radar because of Christmas and all that; he'll be a guy to watch in the new year. I'll be interested to see how his recruitment, and his career, play out.
It appears that Glenville cornerback Mike Edwards has given up on the idea of an Ohio State offer:
While Edwards was impressed with his Cincinnati visit, he said he will at least make official visits to Michigan and Tennessee before selecting a college. Edwards has scholarship offers on the table from those three schools as well as Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and others. If he were to land an offer from Ohio State he would definitely visit the Buckeyes.
So that's top three for Edwards, a borderline four-star at a position of need. I'm still skeptical anyone from Glenville will sign with Michigan until Ted Ginn Sr is elsewhere.
Etc.: JUCO FL DE Pernell McPhee did not sign yet.
This was going to be a part of Monday Recruitin' but deserves its own post.
So: we're down to one quarterback commit. Rodriguez has a month or so to latch on to another one, though, and a number of attractive targets:
VA QB Tajh Boyd originally committed to West Virginia, but decommitted during WVU's season, probably right after he saw the Bill Stewart Face. He then committed to Tennessee only for Lane Kiffin to say "seeya" as soon as he took the helm. Since he got back on the market he visited Ohio State, generating strong rumors of a future commitment, and plans on visiting Oregon.
Can Michigan get in on a guy they were never really involved with in the first place? They'll certainly try. It might not matter much; ironically given the circumstances of his Tennessee situation, Boyd decommitted WVU in search of a place that would throw the ball more and (hypothetically) better prepare him for the NFL. Can Rodriguez convince him he's interested in throwing the ball more? You'd think so given that his other two quarterbacks are Threet and Forcier, but public perception is hard to change.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Negative. Boyd his higher rated by everyone.
Chance M picks him up: Seems a long shot at this point. M can really sell opportunity here, though.
FL QB Eugene Smith is currently committed to West Virginia, so you know he must like the offense. He was on the board for a long time even after the Beaver/Newsome commits, and then still remained on the board after the Newsome/Forcier swap. He's got a longstanding relationship with the Michigan staff—I believe Calvin Magee is the main guy—and kind-of sort-of seemed to be favoring Michigan at points despite the scholarship situation. Then he committed to WVU a month ago.
Could he be open? Well, yes. Smith told a West Virginia radio program this when he announced his commitment:
I don't want to say I'm shutting the door completely. It will all come in due time. Wait till things get settled down and get my grades.
If Smith's door remains open and the vibe he gave off earlier is any indication… well, it's not like that state's opinion of Michigan could get any worse. One possible hindrance: FL WR Steadman Bailey—briefly a Michigan recruit in the summer—is also a WVU commit. But, uh, we've got a spot at outside WR, kid.
This is 100% speculation, but I got a weird Forcier-like feeling during Smith's recruitment; he obviously liked Michigan quite a bit. If he liked it as much as Forcier he would have leapt on an offer earlier, so this is no slam dunk. Still… I would not be surprised if Smith popped up on the radar again and took a visit.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: also negative. Smith is higher rated by everyone, too.
Chance M picks him up: Extremely strong for a guy currently committed to another school, or "not very good at all but we've got a shot." If Smith decides to take a visit I think we've got a pretty solid chance.
MD QB Raymond Cotton is an Auburn decommit mighty displeased by the Chizik hire. Michigan was not involved with him before his commitment, but, hey, I just broke up with my girlfriend what a coincidence you just broke up with your boyfriend do you want to grind on the dance floor here sign this it's a LOI.
Four-star quarterback lists Ole Miss on top
That's the headline of a Rivals article in the aftermath of his decommit, albeit one written a couple days before the Atomic Beaver detonated. Arkansas and Southern Miss are also up high; this guy has the geographical preferences of a guy from Georgia, not Maryland.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Not insignificant but minor. Cotton's a guy on the three/four star edge and Beaver was generally better regarded. He's good enough to be a viable option, though.
Chance M picks him up: No idea. He's floating out there and Michigan's got an attractive spot open, but he seems set on the SEC.
FL QB Denard Robinson is current uncommitted and may be more of an athlete recruit than a quarterback. Florida and Georgia are both competing for his services but plan to bring him in as a WR/DB and I know you're thinking "ack Feagin can't throw" right now but Robinson is on another level as a recruit. He's a member of the Rivals 250, their second-fastest "athlete" prospect, a member of the ESPN 150…
Robinson and ATH Brandon McGee could be twins in this class as both are about 5'11, very athletic, quick and actually very accomplished passers, but it will take the right offense and coaching staff to commit to them as QB's as opposed to making the move to corner or wide receiver.
…and a four-star cornerback to Scout.
Florida has long been rumored the leader, and the Gators have offered him at quarterback. How honest is that QB offer? Eh… fairly legit, actually. Though Florida already has a QB commit in this class they did not take a QB last year and one of the two they took in 2006, Cameron Newton, is in hot water for stealing (and chucking) some kid's laptop.
Robinson really wants that QB shot and a early playing time. He's serious enough about both that he plans on visiting UCF in January; he will also visit Michigan. West Virginia is another candidate.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Minimal. Robinson's 6-foot tops and probably not even that so is less of a true QB prospect than Beaver, but a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida.
Chance M picks him up: Not good; Florida seems the likely destination. One positive: he's taken his official to Florida and came back uncommitted.
Before you ask: yes, TX QB Tyrik Rollison is a top-100 recruit to Rivals and is a dual threat quarterback floating around uncommitted—you may remember him as the QB who was Not Beaver in the Beaver game televised on ESPN2 this fall—but at last update he had an offer from Colorado State and maybe Baylor and definitely not Oklahoma State. What does this say? It says "very unlikely to qualify" in big flashing red letters. I'm hoping that's not the case and Michigan gets involved; that doesn't seem probable.
There are a couple of uncommitted guys listed as dual threat quarterbacks in the Big Ten area: Dolapo Macarthy is from Merrillville, Indiana, and has an Iowa offer; Darren Jones is from Illinois and has offers from Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Both are three stars.
None of the four guys listed above seems likely. The chances any of the four commits to Michigan are below 50%, and probably below 35%. Then you're vaguely hoping Michigan gets involved with a guy from Texas who may not qualify or down to three star sorts. I'd take a three star sort, but let's not kid ourselves: this decommit is likely to significantly downgrade the results at the most important position in the class.
Right, so that is Shavodrick Beaver's myspace and he's been flat-out lying to the mods at Rivals and Scout:
Tulsa received a quarterback commitment Friday afternoon when Shavodrick Beaver announced he'd sign at the University of Tulsa.
Beaver, a 6-foot-3, 185-pounder, is from Wichita Falls (Texas) Rider High School,and has been ranked the eighth-best quarterback in the country by rivals.com.
Beaver had given a commitment to the University of Michigan, but switched to TU after a home visit by TU coach Todd Graham.
This seems like completely farfetched crap, but Rivals has an article with quotes($) up, too. WTF? This one really bothers me because for months Beaver's been called up and has said things like "I'm ten thousand percent committed!" Man up and admit you're wavering.
Michigan now needs to scramble for a second quarterback in the class. They've been recruiting FL QB Denard Robinson and may look to get involved with WVU/Tennessee decommit Tajh Boyd; expect Eugene Smith to get a phone call, too.
in percentages (or, better yet, in ± with a baseline of 5), how much is Scott Shafer's departure reflective of a poor fit as DC (and thus a tacit admission by Rodriguez that he was an unsatisfactory hire) vs. being indicative of the first the first flowering of potential panic by Rodriguez in the face of booster/fan/media displeasure (a la Auburn & Tony Franklin, as you've illustrated) on a scale that he was unprepared for. Please discuss.
Ninety percent "poor fit as DC." The Purdue game, which came when the team was 2-6 and had given up 35 points in three of the last four games, with the other game against Toledo, seemed like a breaking point. Michigan installed the 3-3-5, saw it backfire spectacularly, and from there the rift had formed and it was not repaired.
I put very little credence in the idea that coaches give half, or even a tenth, of a damn about what's said about them in the media or amongst fans. That's only relevant at the point where you get dragged into the athletic director's office and he says "some assistants go or you do." Michigan is a school that gave Tommy Amaker six years and would have let Lloyd Carr return for as long as he pleased no matter what happened against Ohio State: ultimatums did not happen.
Brian, you've probably already addressed this, but if 2005 was the Year of Infinite Pain, what was 2008?
I'm partial to the construction adopted by Auburn fans: 2008=DEATH.
Various questions on recruiting, all from one email:
How does the amount of verbal decommits stack up to other programs? This has to be a somewhat common occurrence throughout the country?
How does the number of decommits this year compare to other years under Carr? Or is this more than UM is used to?
I realize every UM fan in the blogosphere overreacts & is shocked when a kid decommits, but don't you think the coaching staff rates each verbal commit differently? When Newsome committed, I hope the coaching staff had him as a "soft" commit & were not shocked when he dropped us? As opposed to say when a Thomas Gordon committed - they coaches would have to believe this is a rock solid commit. I would think the coaches know what kids are not yet 100%, even thought they gave a verbal & still need some recruiting.sadf
Don't some verbal commitments nowadays constitute a "leader in the clubhouse" for a lot of kids?
- Newsome: not at all. Michigan replaced Newsome with an equivalent prospect in Tate Forcier. (Newsome started the recruiting cycle ranked way high but has dropped steadily since; he didn't even start for Hargrave this year.)
- Fera: little. Michigan replaced Fera with a near-equivalent in Brendan Gibbons. Also: kickers are crapshoots.
- Barnes: little. Guy is a three-star who is probably going to end up at Purdue for lack of better offers. Michigan can get a dozen of those kinds of players.
- McNeal: considerable. McNeal is a top-100 talent to everyone and Michigan is not going to replace that in this class unless they snake oil some kid unexpectedly.
- Campbell: either not at all or enormously, depending on whether he recommits.
Overall: there's a ding from the McNeal departure and if Campbell doesn't rejoin the fold it'll be a huge disappointment; other than that the decommit hullaballoo is a lot of hype with little impact.
Programming note. The blog takes its annual week off for Christmas starting Tuesday. Depending on the travel schedule—ie, the weather—Monday will either see full posting or a somewhat abbreviated day when I throw up a recruiting thing and maybe a UV sort of thing at 8AM before getting on the road. Tune in to find out.
After that, the blog will be off until the 30th, at which point I'll preview Michigan's New Year's Day Bowl— wait. What? Seriously!??!?
Hello destructor. Why yes, that's one Lamarr Woodley on the cover of Sports Illustrated:
Also there is Elvis.
It's a scam. Dan Wetzel and Yahoo have a killer article on the giant flaming scam that bowl games are for college football teams:
The Sugar Bowl’s total revenue was $12.9 million in 2006 according to tax documents. Its chief expense is paying $6 million into a payout pool for BCS teams. The rest of the money for teams comes from a cut of television and sponsorship revenue.
Wetzel later cites numbers that the ACC and SEC championship games cost from 1-2 million dollars, so the gap between 8 million and 12.9 million—about five million dollars, in case Andy Katzenmoyer is reading this—is being thrown away by college football because they let third parties run their postseason.
For the last time. The NCAA instituted some new clock rules in the offseason and they duly chopped twelve minutes and 6% of plays from every game so that we could get more awesome updates on awesome NASCAR which is awesome. In the preseason there was considerable debate about just how many plays would be wiped away by the institution of an NFL-style 40 second clock. Dr. Saturday, then SMQ, said "some"; I said "none," and so forth and so on.
I was wrong to gullibly believe that the clock rules wouldn't actually chop time off the game, but the 40 second clock probably wasn't the main culprit. The main culprit was the change in the out of bounds rule, which was projected to cut about five plays out of every game. The net loss in plays this year…
G Plays/G Time/G Pts/G
2005 717 140.71 3:21 52.61
2006 792 127.53 3:07 47.53
2007 792 143.42 3:23 55.37
2008 770 134.73 3:11 52.78
…is about seven if you take the average of the two "normal" years (2005 and 2007). The difference is almost entirely the fault of the OOB change.
If they don't repeal that, my suggested prescription for keeping your precious commercials but not hacking out plays we pay more and more to see: reduce the playclock from 40 seconds to, say, 36. Or 35. Whatever. Cut out dead time wherein we're lovingly surveying the craters of Dave Wannstache's ancient acne or going WOO LET'S PRETEND WE KNOW ABOUT NASCAR.
"Neutral site" indeed. Here's a terrible decision:
The University of Michigan baseball team will defend its 2008 Big Ten Tournament title in Columbus, Ohio, as the conference office and Greater Columbus Sports Commission announced today (Thursday, Dec.18) that Huntington Park, the home of the Triple-A Columbus Clippers, will serve as the host site for the 2009 Big Ten Baseball Tournament. The event will mark the Big Ten's first neutral-site baseball tournament since 1994.
Jesus H. Christ. "Neutral site" != Columbus, Ohio. The NCAA hockey tournament has been plagued by this sort of thinking too. Guys, get over yourselves. You're college hockey and college baseball, and not even like good draft-pick-laden southern college baseball. No one is going to drive a million hours to see your team play, especially if it's in Columbus freaking Ohio. After the game you can see the beer can statue of Woody Hayes! Look, it's punching Jesus!
The net result of this is to strip the regular season champion of the one small benefit they gathered from, you know, winning the freaking conference and bestow that benefit on Ohio State. And even if you really insisted on making it a "neutral site" there are a thousand minor league ballparks across the Midwest that would actually be, you know, neutral.
Unless you know you can sell out a random "neutral" site, all tournaments/regionals should be on someone's home court/ice/field. It gives players a greater motivation to perform during the regular season and prevents embarrassingly empty stadiums when, say, Ohio State finishes fourth in the Big Ten and bombs out in two games.
Adios, Cronin. Ben Cronin will redshirt, as expected:
But what makes the most sense now is to redshirt him. I believe his window ends just about now, this time. Scheduling the surgery is a part of that. Nothing conclusive, but I do think you’ll hear something as we flip it (past the 1/3 mark of the season), and have to make a decision.
Also, Beilein's vertigo is improving and he may be on the sidelines for the Oakland game.
Steve Kampfer takes his status as a Wolverine to heart, albeit in this case its the variety with an adamantium skeleton:
Junior defenseman Steve Kampfer appears set to play in the GLI, Berenson said last Friday, and he'd likely be paired with Tristin Llewellyn or Chad Langlais. The tournament would be Kampfer's first games since suffering a fractured skull and other injuries during an alleged on-campus assault by suspended Michigan football player Mike Milano on Oct. 12.
"If we can continue in the direction we're going and there's no setbacks, I think he'll play," Berenson said.
With Brandon Burlon and Greg Pateryn playing well and Matt Rust and Aaron Palushaj off at the WJC, might we see a (possibly temporary) return of Chris Summers to forward? I guess it's a matter of whether you'd rather scratch Pateryn or someone of the Lebler/Glendening/Fardig ilk.
In any case, the next few games will be critical for Michigan's season and getting one of their top three defensemen back on the ice should be a great help.
Oh and also… what is going on at State?
Defenseman Ryan Turek was released from the team for failing to meet the expectations of the team. Turek's lack of success is pretty disappointing. He was a 4th round draft pick of the St. Louis Blues--incidentally, drafted in the same round by the same team as Travis Erstad, who is now playing D-3 hockey. Turek was also among the first group of "early commits" to choose a school years in advance of actually enrolling in college.
Also departing the team for juniors is an overmatched freshman who should return as a sophomore next season. Comley's going to have a hell of a hole to dig out of next year. Lerg and (likely) Jeff Petry depart, and there doesn't appear to be a ton of help on the way. This might be the beginning of the end for Comley.